Who Wins NL ROY: Paul Skenes or Jackson Merrill?

let's stay in the National League and look at rookie of the year because I know we had an article that I had assigned probably close to a month ago where I I I I wanted our one of our writers to talk about why Jackson Merill deserved the rookie of the year but why he wouldn't win it and I thought he wouldn't win it because I thought Paul skes was just too popular to not win this thing but Jackson Marl continues to get big hit after big hit for the Padres and the war number numers are starting to favor him it feels like we're going to see Jackson Meo win this thing but skin could still with a strong finish maybe getting the race and also Yuki wants to mention show to imaga another guy that very well could was part of the combin no hitter yesterday uh but I think it's going to come down to ski and Merill ultimately I apologize Yuki I think it will too yeah and that might be surprising for some people to to say that that Paul skin isn't isn't The Runaway winner because watching highlights and and getting praise is different than the actual statistics and I think it there's there's really four names that are in the the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year award show managa maybe on the outside looking in even with uh being a major part of that no hitter that we saw on Wednesday but skin and Merill are are at the top of that and Merill doing it all year long I think you know they both have youth on their side where you say oh man we haven't seen a player this young or the fact that skin was just drafted last year but Jackson Merill also doing it at a position he had never played before was came up as a shortstop you know began his season began his career in another country that was that was an article I thought about writing and I think I did a little bit of research like how many players made their Major League debut in a country outside of Canada or the United States and like that's wild to think that's where his season began but he's learned things on the fly as a 20-year-old and I think you know in that conversation you have another 20-year-old in Jack centurio yeah really really solid he's been coming on strong as of late um going to join a very elite group of players who reached 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases before turning age 21 and then the the the fourth guy that again depending on how much you know you've watched him and I know defense has been a big component of it but Mason win has also been fantastic but I think you're right so much of the conversation this year has been about Paul SK and more recently been about Jackson Merill especially when you look up and down that Padre's lineup and you say man they're really coming on strong as of late a lot of that corresponds with Jackson Merill and again give the year word is not MVP but I think that's going to be part of the conversation just a little bit and having people take notice and say hey that's really impressive for rookie to be doing that under this kind of a spotlight when a team really you know needs this guy to come through and and get their their Club back into a postseason race so I think that's going to be worth a couple extra points but ultimately it's going to be the numbers on the table table that really decides who wins Rookie of the Year you look at the odds right now Jackson Marell is minus 12200 which is a a shock that that he's that much of a favorite Paul SK now is plus 850 uh which means that the betting odds suggest that it's more likely that Francisco Lindor win the MVP over Otani than schemes would win the Rookie of the Year over Jackson Marl and that's just showing you how good Merill has been I mean you look at what he has done for that team to you know like you said to know make the debut in another country as a rookie at center field when you've been a short stop your entire career um and he's not g I think Bretton Doyle is gonna win that award but Jackson Mero is gonna get some consideration just considering how well he has played center field he's got a 294 average he's got on base or 326 clip he slugged over 500 22 homers 16 stolen bases so he probably gets into the 2020 Club when it's all said and done this year and just so many big moment moment uh it's it's really crazy because Paul SK everybody would want to just give him this type of an award he's got a 213 RA in 19 starts he's been unbelievable but just being excellent for a pirates team that has faded compared to Jackson Merl who has been everything you know everyday player just doing everything he could to keep this team uh you know in this race yeah I think Merill has this thing when you look at both versions of winds above replacement fangraphs prefers Merill over skin by you know almost one one war but then baseball references version favors skin over Merill by one and a half so you add those two up the edge goes slightly to Jackson Merill maybe maybe that's the new version of war is you just add them both together and they cancel out and you take the average whatever it is but they're they're really close it's going to be interesting to see how this one ends up shaking out and I really wish after having voted for the Rookie of the Year last year I really wish that the the ballot was was five players deep because with three again all it takes is is a year like this where you say okay it's skin and Merill and now you know a in theory you say ah you the third place vote I I'll throw somebody a bone and give them or whatever you know that that has implications right and you really can't do that if you're only going three deep especially if there's three candidates you know we'll see what Mas win does over the the final three plus weeks we'll we'll end up seeing what what imaga is able to do so that third place vote could be critical if you go five deep that then at least allows you to go and and give somebody a little vote saying hey I I saw what you did out there that was pretty good I mean look at Ellie De La Cruz he barely got any recognition for what he was able to do last year it's because it was a really strong national league rookie of the year work class Yuri Perez was fantastic last year got one third place vote it wasn't because he wasn't worthy it was because the ballot was only three deep so so it would be interesting to see what would happen if you could go five deep and and really give a little bit more recognition to some of those rookies who had good Seasons they just weren't the best seasons for me I'd prefer I mean that going five deep would be great and that would help the voting process I wish they would they would give us two rookie of the years do a pitcher and a hitter you know I I I mean it's just this season You Know Jack samaro deserves the rookie of the year but Paul skin deserves when he goes into Town hopefully everything breaks the way he wanted to that baseball reference page should say Rookie of the Year on it because he has done everything that you would have like there's not a single thing that paulski could have done better in his rookie of the year season there's just a guy who had who played a more impactful role on a better team so that's where Merill probably gets this thing because I do think if you're looking at Value the position player who's out there every day is just more valuable than the pitcher who also you know joined the party a little bit late but this is a case if there ever is one where both of these guys deserve it and there should be a pitcher Rookie of the Year and a hitter rookie of the year I feel like most years there's at least one guy that's deserving on each front I don't think it has to be one award you just you're just saying that because that would means kodai senga would have won last year for NLP I didn't even I didn't even think of that I didn't even think of that well that's how Mets Phantom is just in your blood course I promise you I for you know what here's here's my complete honest thing I forget that imaga is a rookie this year too something about the guys that come over that have had whole careers like I almost don't even know if if I was a voter I don't think I would like oh yeah kodai Sanga was a rookie last year the guy's 30 years old he's he's won 100 games in the mpb like to me not it's more looking at even you know 2021 One race that that comes to mind like Trevor Rogers was awesome for the Marlins if there was two Awards he could have won a rookie of the year so I I I I really do think that it just it puts voters in a tough spot where it's never easy to compare a hitter to a pitcher it's just not that that's what makes greatting prospects so hard at times like who do you put ahead and a lot of times the positioned player will get the edge in Prospect rankings because of that nature of them playing more frequently so I I just think this is a situation where both of these guys really deserve this award that's an interesting concept and honestly I I don't think I've heard anybody ever mention that it's such a simple thing of saying hey let's why don't we have a a pitcher rookie of the year I don't know what you would name that one I mean we do call the Rookie of the Year award the Jackie Robinson award um he actually won in the first year in 1947 when he debuted and broke the color barrier U so I don't know if it would be like the Satchel Page award um who was the first African-American player to to pitch in the majors but it it would be interesting you know I think right now we are in this Renaissance of rookies making an impact and getting more opportunities where in the past that wasn't really the case and there were some really down years like how many people remember 20 uh or 2009 who was the Rookie of the Year Chris cogin like okay I mean now the best pitcher would have been j a hap and then we think about him just a little bit differently in uh in in the National League in the American League Andrew Bailey won it as a closer for the Oakland Athletics which hey the more things change the more they stay the same Elvis Andrews would have been able to have that on his resume as the best position player so you know is that is there something like that possibly coming probably not because again the structure of the bbwaa and how those Awards end up going out but it's it's definitely something that deserves consideration and uh yeah i' I'd be all for that I think that would be that would be a really great suggestion and a great change the Fernando Valenzuela NL Rookie of the Year award why not why not hey I like that there you go and uh yeah I I think it's just it's something that I believe like I I don't see a downside to it and I feel like rookies are getting the young talent in this game is getting to such a degree that I feel like every year there's guys that are popping that are really exciting