Tropical Storm Francine 4am Update And Coming Effects On Bolivar Peninsula.

[Music] we we we [Music] good morning everyone this is David with biver Live Well I tell you what we got an early start this morning and we're going to keep an early start going um we've got tropical storm Francine and it'll probably be updated and what we're going to go through this morning is some of the models uh there were some changes yesterday and now it's changed back you know about 3:00 4:00 I guess we finally got on there about 4:30 and you know when the uh hurricane Hunters went down the I had moved over about 30 35 miles to the west and that moved the forecasted track over and what you're looking now is from radar scope and in that last frame uh let me see if I can stop it there you can see the I form um and so uh let me see if I can get over there and the last frame of it you can see and I'm going to stop it for a little bit right there there you can see uh the ion it's been sort of um I love drawing uh it hadn't moved a whole lot I don't think from what I've seen a little bit here and there but it is uh strengthening it looks like a little bit um I know they've been flying all night and so uh let's look at some of the the latest updates on everything we've got screens everywhere here um at 4:00 a.m. the National Hurricane Center and this is I'm not a weather person all I do is compile everything but I'm going to show you uh once this thing gets going we'll be out and letting you see what's happening here on Boliver um that's what Oliver live is all about is keeping you connected uh to the upper Texas coast whether it's an event a storm rain winter uh that's what we're here for and here you can see the update and The Cone actually moved back to the the East um probably about 35 miles it looks like and I think it's going to move over a hair more uh before it's all over with um we are here on Boliver we are are um in a tropical storm watch and that's that yellow area there and so you can see the location of of Francine at 4:00 a.m. and you know it should later on today it'll hit should hit hurricane status and then they're saying you know we're going to look at an intensity level here um in a little bit and let you see exactly what it should make landfall at now we're still out a good ways in fact um they're showing 1 pm Wednesday a little offshore and I saw another model that showed about 400 p.m. Wednesday if I'm not mistaken a little bit Inland and so it's probably going to be around between 1 and and 3:00 when it makes landfall tomorrow now what's this going to have effect on Boliver that's what we're going to look at cuz we're going to look at the forast tracks now these are the models and you can see they've moved over some um actually quite a bit it seems like and so there may be you know as we get the update at 7:00 and then 10:00 and 1:00 uh we'll see some changes here and there especially in the um intensity of it and we'll let you know if it makes any big jumps or anything but we're going to this is it right now uh through another uh radar and like I said I'm not a weather person I just gather all this stuff up and make it try and make it easier for you uh to see everything so you don't have to look through everything but there you can see the you know we saw a lot more pink yesterday um and so I'm wondering you know is it not strengthening as much as what they thought it was going to and so we'll just have to wait on that but let's take a look at the this is the cloud base uh shortwave infrared at night and there you can sort of see um a lot of stuff back out to the North or North of the storm Northwest of the or east of the storm there you can see cloud cover this morning when I came in about 3:00 3:15 um it was uh we had some clearing out and you could see some stars and so you know I don't think this is going to be a rain event for us I think we're going to get some rain um you know yesterday I had a lot of people stop me and ask me David what do you think and you know I think we're going to have about 40 mph winds with some higher gusts um and we're going to look at the surge deal because that's a big thing down here um with the ferry and Highway 87 you know I figure you know I'm thinking about 40 mph winds may maybe 45 at the tops um and then some gusts a little bit higher as storms come through we are going to get some rain and I think we'll have about 3 in you know 2 to three Ines of rain before this is all over with um and there you can see this is from the from Noah uh the storm surge part um from Highland over to Cameron 3 to 5 ft and then from Highland back down actually to the mouth of the Rio Grandy 1 to 3 ft and so you know it's going to be south of us tomorrow about 1:00 a.m. due south of Galveston Bay and once we get past that point or a little bit before we'll start getting a North Wind and so that's actually going to push water out and so um I don't think it'll be a burl I hope not uh because you know especially the people on the Bayside when that wind laid down uh we had flooding event had had to get some coffee there and I spin it spilled it on my keypad um but there's the surge uh forecast right now and that was as of uh 4:00 a.m. this morning and we update this and going to watch this throughout the day all this um typically we do a show at 6:00 a.m. and 11 11:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. but I can tell you um today and especially tomorrow there'll be could be a lot more shows now this is the intensity model and this was as of 6z um which is I've got my chart here 1:00 a.m. this morning and so uh there you can see out about 24 hours is when it's going to Peak 24 to 30 hours probably is when it's going to Peak as a cap one one model shows a cat too and and a lot of the meteorologists are talking about this thing they think that it's going to ramp up once it gets out in the Gulf uh up the Texas coast a little bit and so we'll just have to wait and see you know what happens on that um you know all I can do is is go by what they're telling us and typically here lately it seems like any kind of storms right before it hits land it starts ramping up and so you know right now they're you're looking at around uh 75 mph is the consensus there and I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get up a little bit higher than that just from past experience on what these storms have done especially Burl did and so you know there's a chance we could see a low-end cat 2 excuse me um um before this is all over with um we'll just have to wait and see but you know Galveston County sent out a an email alert yesterday and I think it was more because of the the jump that uh the storm made you know when it made that uh 30 35 mile jump to the West it put the cone um over closer to us not on top of us but it came up to probably about Sabine a little bit past Sabine between Sabine and High Island and so it raised some concern there and so uh like I said uh intensity cat one maybe a cat 2 from what uh the other the meteorologist are saying um and surge uh you saw the map there 1 to three feet I think we could see definitely 2 to three feet before it's all over with but with that North Wind coming in you know it it could change things a little bit and so uh just depends on that I know we've had an East Wind um the last couple days Northeast wind and uh we've had some higher Tides I noticed this morning I always go by the beach on the way in and noticed uh the tide was up but we're at a high tide so as soon as I finish this uh I'm going to grab an updated cup of coffee and head down and and look at some of the beach areas is and then especially down 12 or Highway 87 there between Gil Crest and High Island we're really going to monitor that and let you know what's going on down in that area in fact probably at 10:00 after the next update uh or they'll have one at 700 and then after the 10:00 we'll probably go down there and do a show or be ready for it and at least talk about what the tides are doing because you know remember that other storm that went into Mex Meo at the beginning of the year um threw quite a bit of water up up up this direction and so you know the longer it sets up there the more it can build and that's one of our deals here is we have to be able to get off the peninsula but as of 4:00 a.m. this morning here's the newest updated projected path and uh you know always refer back to the National Hurricane Center um I'm not a meteorologist but I can tell you you what's happening here on Boliver Peninsula and that's what we're going to do is keep you informed a lot of homeowners don't live here um if you decided to leave and you know with something like this if you have medical conditions that you may need a doctor or an emergency room be safe I was talking to a gentleman yesterday I was filling up some gas cans because I figured you know even if I don't need a generator I can always put it in my truck uh the biver live truck down the road and talking to him and he said yeah we're going to uh get items out of the refrigerator just in case and then we're going to head up uh and go visit some friends I think they were going to the Hill Country uh to go visit some friends for a couple days and then we'll come back and enjoy the beach this weekend so and that's that's the best thing to do if you if you think you might need a doctor or you're not feeling well uh cuz you never know you during Burl and this is I don't think this is going to be a burl but uh we never know until it it hits land and right now they're projecting Louisiana but be safe uh make sure you have batteries go gas up your car gas up any gas cans you need now you'll use that gas in the next week or most people will um and so it's not going to go bad um I know the big store uh will let you know on hours Within if there's any problems um when the storm made the curve uh Keith and I talked about uh if they were what they were going to do but now it may be a little different um depending on what happens a lot of their employees come from High Island and so and through Winnie and that and from win and so we'll just keep you informed but as of 4:00 a.m. this morning the track moved back over to the East and uh listening to some of the other meteorologists um I am not a meteorologist uh listen to some some of the meteorologists I should say they seem to think it may move a little bit more to the East and so as long as it's going east that's good for us so anyway we're going to head on out hope you enjoyed the show hope to see you on the upper Texas coast maybe this weekend uh hopefully this thing passes through blows out the clouds and we we've got an awesome weekend ahead so we're going to head on out we'll be back later on this morning let you know what the conditions are and what's happening here on the upper Texas coast Boliver Peninsula until next time I'm David with Boliver live y'all have a great day and remember you can see what's going on here live anytime through our live webcams at Boliver Peninsula texas.com just go to webcams check out the beach check out the bay we haven't moved event trailer we're sort of waiting to see how things go today and that may be a last minute call until next time y'all have a great day great week come see us God bless and bye-bye [Music]