Biden speaks at NAACP convention, outlook for 2024 down-ballot races and more | America Decides

[Music] hello everyone I'm Major Garrett and welcome to a special edition of America decides for night two of the Republican National Convention if you were with us yesterday and I certainly thank you if you were you'll remember it was a bit louder when we were on at this time of day the band was playing the delegates were on the floor there was a lot of news vice presidential pick JD Vance it's a little quieter right now because the festivities such as they are won't begin until a little bit later this evening but we got a full show right now and we're very happy to bring it to you as you well remember from last night former president Trump officially became the Republican Party nominee for the third consecutive presidential cycle that is history tonight the party's theme and there's always a theme to every night of a national party convention the theme for Republicans tonight safety and that Focus will be on crime and the Southern Border in particular that thematic approach comes as the investigation into the assassination attempt against former president Trump that occurred Saturday while that investigation continues and if anything is intensifying lots of speakers tonight of course many of them were at one time Rivals of former president Trump for Republican voters during the primaries and caucuses among them Florida Governor Ron de santis businessman V ramaswami and perhaps most notably former un Ambassador Nikki Haley Haley was added to the speaking lineup after Saturday's shooting in what the Trump campaign told me and others was an effort to broaden the sense of party Outreach I want to bring in Caitlyn huy Burns who was with me here in Milwaukee and control if I can do me a favor and kill the music in my ear thank you very much four hours of the orchestra for America decides was just a little too much for me we'll get the band to play it tonight for you exactly no offense to the America decides Orchestra they're wonderful Caitlyn it's great to see you I want to play you a sound bite from an interview with Jason Miller who is a campaign spokesman for the Trump campaign it's about JD Vance and why I want to play it is it sort of describes the JD Vance of 2016 an arch critic of former president Trump and the new JD Vance let's listen well JD Vance is someone who as he said last night in his interview with sha Hannity had listened to too many of the media's lies early on and not had a chance to meet president Trump or get to know him as he saw that first term success with President Trump as we brought about this great economy as we secured the Border brought about world peace in so many different areas he realized this was someone who actually matched his value set and agreed with him very much so the reason I bring that up Caitlyn is because it describes JD Vance now the running mate for president Trump as a dupe in 2016 mindlessly influenced by media lies not someone who made his own independent assessment of candidate Trump that back then that strikes me as a borderline insult of JD Vance and also a kind of blame shifting that is very typical of the Trump campaign but doesn't often times hold up to scrutiny and it's notable too because one of the big selling points for Vance uh for the Trump campaign was that he is great on television he's great on the debate stage defending Donald Trump uh to the to to their liking but it was notable yesterday when JD Vance gave his first interview as the uh vice presidential pick because he kind of acknowledged that as well he said I was wrong um and I recognized my mistakes and uh you know I corrected them essentially and I was speaking to a trump Ally earlier today who said that that is the kind of voter that they are trying to reach those kinds of people who may not have gotten Trump before and may be inclined to do so now may be inclined to cross over in ways they wouldn't have imagined 6 months ago or even maybe six weeks ago want to talk to you quickly about Nikki Haley tonight added to the convention schedule she was at the podium earlier tonight this afternoon rather preparing for tonight's address what are you expecting from Nikki Haley well she was added late to the list as you mentioned there uh it is difficult having covered her for so long to imagine her on this stage for two reasons one she was the last man woman standing against Donald Trump and talking about criticisms of the Republican nominee she waged many many serious criticisms of him um and then you know came around and to your point a big theme of this convention is unity of course but those uh who uh you know were kind of against Donald Trump before now what I also think is significant here is that the Republican Party base is not inclined to Nikki Haley over and over again when I was at Trump rallies or at other political events voters would kind of mention her by name as someone that they did not want to consider they saw her didn't trust her didn't trust her exactly um and especially on forign policy which is interesting because that's going to be a theme uh tonight um a very different foreign policy especially when it comes to Ukraine than is being put forth by Trump and also of course by Vance and it is worth noting that during that campaign when former president Trump spoke of Nikki Haley he frequently used the term dismissive term bird brain and even at times late in the campaign questioned the solidity of her marriage I mean it was really nasty stuff it was really nasty stuff and when she essentially endorsed Donald Trump she didn't necessarily get anything for it she actually had some political capital in the primaries after she had dropped out of the race she was still getting recognizable significant portions of suburban voters those very voters that Donald Trump needs to win back that Republicans have been hemorrhaging and that's been kind of the big question is where do those voters go and everything we've seen over the past couple of weeks since that debate Trump campaign is confident that some of those voters will come home we'll see if that is kind of the the closing argument for Haley tonight how does Nikki Haley read the room how does the room respond to Nikki Haley that'll be a thing to watch tonight Caitlyn huy Burns thank you so very much a jury today this is really big news pay attention convicted New Jersey Senator Bob manenda is an all 16 counts in his Federal corruption trial those counts included bribery extortion and acting as a foreign agent that's a pretty significant charge the last one considering Senator Mendez when charged was the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations all of the allegations surrounded a scheme that Federal prosecutors said involved accepting bribes and including adting those bribes accepting gold bars and cash that in exchange for assisting foreign governments sentencing for Senator Mendez has been scheduled for October 29th I want to bring in our Nicole Killian for more from Capitol Hill Nicole yeah well major as you mentioned this is a pretty significant development this trial spend nearly 2 months result in a guilty verdict against Senator Bob Menendez and two of his business associates the senator still today though emerged from Court uh relatively defiant and undeterred saying that he is a patriot that he has lived up to his oath of office his attorney said that they are disappointed with the outcome and vowed to appeal and say they believe that the senator will ultimately be Vindicated but these are very serious charges ranging from bribery to obstruction of justice ice extortion a wire fraud these are all charges that carry a collective penalty of more than 200 years behind bars keep in mind Senator Menendez is 70 years old he is into his third term here in the US Senate and following uh today's verdict there was a crescendo of calls for him to immediately resign from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer uh down to New Jersey governor uh Phil Murphy who said that if the senator not resigned that he should be expelled from the Senate and that he uh is ready to name a temporary replacement so there's a lot of pressure right now on the senator to resign as you know uh he is running for reelection as an independent but earlier today his Democratic Challenger Andy Kim renewed his calls for the senator to step down and told me that he believes the senator should not be on the ballot major Nicole very quickly is there a process within the Senate to expel Senator Mendez and any serious talk being given to that well there is I mean a number of his Senate colleagues including Senator John tester Senator Jackie Rosen of Nevada are among those calling for his expulsion we have certainly seen that process transpire in the house as recently as late last year with Congressman George Santos uh we also know that the Senate Ethics Committee has been investigating Senator Menendez a rarely issue statements but today they said they plan to expedite their investigation major Nicole kilan on Capitol Hill for us thank you so very much as the Republican National Committee gathers right here in Milwaukee for its convention President Biden heads out west for a little bit of political counterprogramming we'll take a closer look at that next your streaming America [Music] decides the American people aren't stupid they know the system is broken we all know how Washington is running working people have no chance of winning this fight that's why I'm here today because I refuse to keep doing the same things my predecessors did Welcome Back to America decides that was during the first night of the Republican National Convention here in Milwaukee Teamsters president Shan O'Brien want to go down to the floor of the convention here in Milwaukee the F serve Forum to Robert Costa who joins us now Robert what are your expectations for this evening and what reporting do you have to share with our audience about what's transpired here on day two of the convention great to be with you major I just spoke with a continuing Trump critic uh former Arkansas governor ASA Hutchinson Who challenged former president Trump for the nomination also ran against former Ambassador Nikki Haley he's hoping that Haley still outlines a path for traditional Republicans in the party but even he as a trump critic believes that ultimately tonight former Ambassador Haley will give a full-throated endorsement for for president Trump that she believes he believes that this is a time for Haley to come around even though she has these concerns about Trump's conduct and legal challenges this is a fragile moment though for the Republican party I'm sensing on the floor here talking to delegates their happy Haley is here though there are still some wounds left over from the primary campaign at the same time there's an expectation by showing up this is not going to be some kind of Ted Cruz moment like the Texas Senator had in 2016 where he said vote your conscience and didn't really endorse Trump they expect Haley to endorse Trump tonight especially in the wake of the assassination attempt over the weekend but it was interesting to talk to former Governor Hutcherson to hear that there are still those in the party who say because of the legal challenges because of everything that's happened in the past he doesn't believe that Trump's well positioned to win in November that's a a rare point though here on the convention Floor Major Robert Costa thank you so much for that new reporting appreciate that meanwhile President Biden is busy drumming up support in the Battleground state of Nevada we're looking at President Biden giving remarks right now speaking at the 115th National Convention of the NAACP in Las Vegas Quinton folks is here in Milwaukee Quinton is the principal Deputy campaign manager for the Biden campaign Quinton it's great to see you thanks so much for joining us give me your assessment from the Biden Harris campaign's perspective on day one of the Republican National Convention well thank you for having me major it's always a pleasure to be with you look I mean I think we saw yesterday Republicans do exactly what we thought they would we believe that they would go uh to Milwaukee or come to Milwaukee and double down on an extreme divisive agenda um that is one of taking away rights for millions of Americans doubling down on policies that are out of touch putting the wealthiest and big corporations ahead of the middle class doubling down on ripping away Health Care uh from American citizens doubling down on making sure the big farmer is allowed to continue to cheat Americans in charge exorbitant prices uh so unfortunately they did exactly what we thought uh and it had been rumored for months that Donald Trump was looking at JD Vance uh for a potential V VP nominee pick um and he confirmed that and obviously JD Vance is just a rubber stamp for Donald Trump I think it's important that American voters take a step back and ask themselves why Donald Trump had to pick uh a new Vice Presidential nominee it is because his first one would not not certify the results of a legitimate election um in JD B has said that he would do as such and so I think we saw exactly what we had been anticipating from the Republican party for for many many weeks Quinton as you well know last night the conversation around JD Vance and his potential political value to the Trump ticket was because of his upbringing in Ohio because of the book hillbilly elogy and the movie made about that he can speak in ways that maybe Trump can't that is a persuasive pitch to voters specifically in Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan evaluate that uh they only know one language and that's magga extremism uh it is both of them doubling down uh he will continue to do just as Donald Trump said he's not in the business of correcting Trump or moderating Trump on any of these issues in fact uh he might be uh even more extreme I mean when talking about abortion in cases of rape and incest uh for women to get those type of treatments after those incidents uh he said two wrongs don't make a right uh he has doubled down on some of the most out of touch policy stances um you know and I think that we're going to continue to see him stand right beside Donald Trump's side in opposition uh to what he said so I think it's interesting that he's lost his moles and his character now that he's been named VP because that's not what he was saying uh several months ago or a couple years ago when he was running for office Quinton I know you know this phrase let's listen to the principal the principal in this case would be President Biden he's in Las Vegas let's listen in than anyone president has in one term he left no room for us to do what we should be doing invest in things that affect people's lives like Child Care elder care and so much more that grow the economy and help people his mismanagement of the pandemic was especially devastating to Black communities oh I I know and other countries other communities of color that economic crisis drove up black unemployment decimated small black businesses and you peacefully protested George Floyd's murder Donald Trump called for the National Guard to go after you what the hell is it matter with this man well I'm serious go figure from a guy who spread the birth as a lie against Barack Obama saying he wasn't born in America and he wasn't a US citizen of course here's what he thinks of Black jobs I love his phrase black jobs tells a lot about the man and about his character folks I know what a black job is it's the vice president of the United States I know what a black job is the first black president in American history Barack [Applause] Obama I was vice president the Barack and she is my vice president I nominated the first black secretary defense in American history you're doing one hell of a job I nominate the first black woman to the United States Supreme Court it matters it matters and I promised myself and I promised America America that my Administration would look like America I'm proud that we have the most diverse Administration in all of history that tapped into the full talents of our nation that's who we are these guys don't get it that's why we're so successful no I'm serious that's what makes us the greatest nation on Earth that's not hyperbole folks it's because of you that I'm president Comm Harris is Vice President by the way she's not only a great vice president she could be president of the United [Applause] [Music] States thank you with with the help with the help of the NAACP the black elected members in the Congress we've gotten so much done seriously presidential storian said we've gotten more done of consequence than any president since Franklin Roosevelt just think about where the black community was when we Community when I came into office think about how far the black community has come we still got a lot way to go co no longer controls Our lives our economy is not going to be literally the strongest economy in the world historic glob black unemployment record growth of black small businesses let me say this again because Trump is lying like hell about it the black unemployment hit a record low under Biden Harris Administration the first bill I pass a good $1,400 Checks Plus $300 checks per child per family per month in the pockets of people in this country to get them through the pandemic not Trump's Administration K and I did that we put more money in the pockets of than anyone we cut black and of consequence we cut black child poverty in half and what we finally getting through to people my Economic Policy grows the economy when we spend money grows it we grew the American economy to the strongest in the world and I'm determined to make that tax cut permanent no child should ever go hungry in America and by the way all the data shows us we they can't let them tell us we drive up deficits they drive up deficits folks when you have child care guess what Mom or Dad could work and the child could be safe we're connected ing black neighborhoods they were cut off of Old highways and disinvestment decades ago my city of Wilmington Delaware 995 runs up through what used to be the black community divided it six Lanes wide we're going to make sure that the states want it we're going to be able to pave over the top of that and still have the highway connecting neighborhoods we're removing which is costly every poisonous lead pipe in a house in America so every child can drink clean water without fear of brain damage we're delivering high-speed and affordable broadband no child should have to sit out in the parking lot with her moms in front of a McDonald's so they can get online to do their homework and because of you you're not only predicting Obamacare you allowed me to increase it make Healthcare more affordable we're putting and by the way more than it's ever been more than it's ever been millions of African-Americans have now have health care because what we done we're putting home ownership home ownership Within Reach how do you generate generational wealth no matter what community you're from I know how we did we when everything got stuck in Scranton and with no jobs moved to Delaware dad worked like healthy could get down payment to buy a small house that's how you build equity as small as a three-bedroom split level home with four kids and a grandpa living with us but it was a home and he was able to build some Equity look we're making the most significant investment in climate ever in all of history including most significant action on environmental justice ever look folks think about this my state of Delaware if you you not many you don't know my state my state of Delaware has a Delaware River runs up along Jagged but at the top of the state there's a half moon and it comes up along more oil refineries on the other side of that half we're going to go back to our conversation with principal Deputy campaign manager Quinton folks of the Biden Harris campaign Quinton you've been listening to President Biden addressed the 115th Convention of the NAACP a moment ago the president I think with some new rhetorical flourishes into the concept of something that former president Trump said at the first debate black jobs your reaction is that something that voters are going to hear more and more of from the president absolutely and I think it's very quite a difference in between where these candidates choose to spend their time and who they uh spend their time talking to Donald Trump continues to double down on racist tropes continuing to think that he can win over black voters uh by selling sneakers and cologne and saying that they are with him because he is a convicted felon uh versus what you just heard President Biden lay out um and I think that it's very very clear uh that when Donald Trump talks about black jobs uh he means menial Labor uh as he relates it to uh immigrants taking black jobs it's a disgrace um and I think that we see what President Biden sees as a black job it's Secretary of Defense it's a Supreme Court Justice it's the president of the United States the vice president of the United States and so we're going to continue to take that message and Donald Trump unsurprisingly probably doesn't know what any jobs is given the fact that he left office uh having created a negative amount of jobs one of the only other presidents to do that besides Herbert Hoover so you are definitely going to cons continue to see our campaign and the president take that message directly to American voters Quinton as you well know many Democrats have been urging the campaign to intensify its messaging its Vigor but also put some specific policy proposals out responsive to our times I want to ask you about a Washington Post story that has just gone up on the Washington Post website that says President Biden is preparing to announce recommendations for major changes to the Supreme Court can you shed any light on that look I'm not going to make any any news tonight uh I'll leave that to to President Biden to do uh but I think when it comes to talking about the issues and talking about what President Biden wants to do I know he's focused on making sure that he's capping uh housing cost rent costs increases I know he's interested in making sure he passes the proa I know he's interested in making sure that he expands healthc care coverage and the Affordable Care Act I know he's interested in making sure that he protects women's reproductive freedoms uh continuing to expand on the the work that he has done on climate change infrastructure uh and so President Biden is going to remain focused on that but I will let him make uh the news that he wants to make about any announcements in regards to the Supreme Court Quinton folks Deputy principal campaign manager for the Biden Harris re-election campaign we thank you very much for your time as we mentioned today's theme at the Republican National Convention here in Milwaukee quote make America safe again but actually how worried are Americans about crime CBS news polling expert Anthony salvanto will join us next with insight into that you are streaming America [Music] decides welcome back to America todes here at day two of the Republican National Convention fact FBI crime statistics show crime is down and that's also what statistics in major American cities show but how do actual voters feel about crime itself CBS News executive director of Elections and surveys Anthony salvanto joins us now answer that question for us Anthony how you doing major great to talk to you and here's the thing is crime a factor in people's vote yeah for a majority of people it is in fact for a majority it's a major factor having said that one of the things as we explained to people contextualize why you're going to see this conversation tonight for Republicans it's even more so it's three4 of republic Republicans that say crime is a major factor in their vote and look a lot of this is going to happen with your favorite candidate but Republicans do feel that if Donald Trump gets elected that crime rate will go down or at least further down to your point man Anthony santu in New York thank you so very much want to continue this conversation by bringing in our CBS News immigration and politics reporter Camilo Montoya Galvez because Camilo as you well know for rep Republicans and for former president Trump one of the prisms by which their voters and the former president view crime is through migrants crossing the border explain to our audience what the facts are what do we know that's right well as you know former president Trump is yet again making immigration a major pillar to his presidential campaign and his bid to return to the White House and there have been record numbers of Migrant Crossings along the US Mexico border under the Biden Administration that is true about 8 million migrant encounters that is a fact but not every single one of those encounters equals an individual migrant major because many of these migrants are crossing the border multiple times illegally and are being counted multiple times on those tallies it is also important to underscore that not every migrant who is process is allowed to stay the bid Administration has actually unbeknownst to a lot of people carried out over 4 million deportations explosions and returns of migrants so half of those encounters have actually resulted in migrants being kicked out of the US but it is still a major issue we have seen a recent decrease a sharp decrease in illegal Crossing since President Biden made most migrants in eligible for Asylum under that executive action and since then we have seen Republicans pivot to another immigration concern and and that is of crime tying immigration and crime into one issue politically they are highlighting some pous heinous crimes rather committed by undocumented immigrants here in the US but statistics show if I understand this correct Camilo over and over and this is something that I I've told that analysts agree across the board Republicans and Democrats who look at this ideologically that migrants commit fewer crimes than Native Americans across the board the data is not very comprehensive on this question major but the analyses that are available do not show that migrants are committing crimes at a higher rate than native born American citizens in fact border patrol data actually shows that criminals make up a very tiny fraction of the people who are processed crossing the us Mexico border and anecdotally I can tell you that most of the migrants I've met here in the US and across the border are people who are fleeing desperate circumstances whether it's poverty whether it's violence they may not qualify for Asylum but they're certainly not criminals or terrorists monio gz thank you so much for those facts that perspective as always as the GOP rides into day two of the Republican National Convention they feel a kind of wave of enthusiasm they feel a little wind in their sailes what the party is faithful is saying about vice presidential pick JD Vance that's next you're streaming America [Music] decides welcome back to America decides from the Republican National Convention right here in Milwaukee the music you hear behind me being played and I want to let you know the band is called six wire out of Nashville and I got to tell you as a cover band they're pretty good I want to be joined here by Steve James Senator and most importantly the chairman of the Republican senatorial Campaign Committee responsible for protecting Republican incumbents and creating more Republican incom great to see you Senator thanks for the time good to be here talk to me about where you see the momentum for this party for this ticket after day one of the convention well T you can sense the enthusiasm the excitement the unity as this party is really coming together behind president Trump and now as vice president nominee JD Vance uh but I tell you I I uh I think the motion here coming off of the assassination temp on Saturday it can't be overstated you know there was that that incredible moment Saturday where you know assassin's bullet was a quarter inch off of either making this a memorial service or a National Convention I mean it was a quar separated one of two outcomes here and here we are thankful for God's protection on President Trump and the fact that we can be here nominate him as our our Presidential nominee and win in November good news for former president Trump tragic news for for one victim and two others who were wounded and are still holding on to life look look it I mean it was a fire chief lost his life an innocent somebody go to a political rally and nobody would have thought you you go home dead and then you had the two other rally goers there that are still you know wounded and and healing up what effect do you think that will have on political campaigning for the rest of this cycle Senator Dame well clearly it changes the whole security posture not just for the former president and President Biden but for senatorial yeah well I mean are you having conversations about that well I I think there'll be a heightened security Presence at events and so forth but look democracy is going to continue to move forward we we are proud of the fact we have a nation here we have access to our elected officials and you know we had you know a deranged individual in Pennsylvania that try to take out the the president of United States um we're going to move forward here three and a half months so we want to make sure the voters expect to interact with their candidates interact with uh with elected leaders Senator D when you talk about Unity do you mean inp party Republican Unity or do you mean something that is an appealing message outside of the Republican Party well I I I think the step one is always unify a party and we are unified I can't say that was true a year ago but now the part is coming have Nikki Haley speaking there's an example of bringing Unity together Ronda santis uh and so the party is Unified I think president Trump has an opportunity on Thursday night now to expand that unity and think about unifying the nation uh the the country is yearning for a strong leader and one that will bring a unifying kind of message and what I've heard from president Trump is he you know he tore up his speech he planned we're going to have a different speech on Thursday night on our air last night on CBS special coverage of this event Michael Watley the party chairman Glenn yunan the governor of Virginia both told us that they were told by President Trump to rewrite your speeches we Senate candidates who are appealing for voters tonight have Rewritten speeches tonight well look I I think there's always a contrast that needs to be painted clearly around the positions let's keep it focused on policy not on personality and I think that's what our Senate candidates will be talking about because the policy Gap here is large in terms of Visions for this country the candidates have every right to paint that contrast but let's do it in a way here that's focused on policy and not personality former president Trump In This Very campaign has described Democrats as Communists marxists fascists who are criminals who steal elections and try to destroy the country is that the kind of rhetoric you see receding after this moment in Saturday in Pennsylvania you know the rhetoric Cuts both ways on that in terms of both parties but I I I hope there will be a temperature decrease I the country is looking for that and leaders have a task here you have setting the tone setting the temperature as we say we should be more thermostats than thermometers we can take the temperature down talk to me about JD Vance and very important Senate campaigns in Milwaukee I mean uh Wisconsin here I obviously Milwaukee's in Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania so you JD Vance is somebody I got to campaign for back in 22 got to know him very well as a as a colleague JD Vance brings a couple of things number one my father's a marine when he said JD Vance will be the first US Marine to serve as vice president our veterans will certainly rally behind that but JD Vance has a has a great American Dream story really growing up on the other side of the railroad tracks of course his story that's been a New York Times bestseller coming from poverty divorced parents is a toddler raised by his mom's third husband goes to Ohio State University goes to Marine Corps and he'll tell you that straightened him out then onto Yale very very bright but here's I think the appeal that JD has he appeals to we call you lunch bucket Democrats so those Democrats that I grew up with in Montana my grandpa D was a dieh hard lunch bucket kind of democrat JD Vance would have an appeal uh to to somebody like that they feel like been left behind by the Democrats agenda bigger than president Trump or complimentary to president TR compliments but I think his unique story is something that very few members of Congress have and I'll tell certainly president Trump doesn't have he he doesn't so Trump has the appeal but I think JD Vance has the story he can uniquely relate to those voters but look what it does in Ohio I got to believe Sher Brown was not happy to hear that JD Vance is going to be the vice president because JD Vance knows Ohio that's going to put you know certainly give a a spring in the step there Bernie Marine oranada in Ohio but look at places like Pennsylvania like Michigan like Wisconsin again lunch bucket Democrats looking for a home JD Vance provides that kind of relatable story Steve danses senator from Montana chairman of the Republican senatorial committee thanks so much for your time we appreciate it glad to join you former president Trump's primary rival Nikki Haley will take the RNC stage tonight that's a bit of a shift we'll have a preview next on America decides [Music] welcome back to America decides from the Republican National Convention here in Milwaukee the house band six wire from Nashville continues to play Nikki Haley will speak tonight at the convention that was after refusing at least initially to endorse former president Trump when she dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination I want to bring in Matt Gorman for analysis match of Republican strategist who served as a senior adviser to another candidate who briefly challenged former president Trump Tim Scott Matt your analysis of Nikki Haley how important tonight what kind of reception do you expect the former un Ambassador for president Trump to receive here I think it depends what she says but I think it'll be a pretty warm reception do you think it'll start kind of like golf claps yeah well they'll be a little tentative we'll get into it between her and Dan santis the message is trying to get people in the camp that might have not voted for Trump in the primary bring them in and theying the general and what is the message that helps those people do that what is the crossover messaging what does that sound like I think more than anything else you might not love Trump but it's immigration crime the economy the things that cross over all across not just our party Independence too when you talk about the economy the Biden campaign with some justification says there's more job creation under President Biden than there was under President Trump there's better stock market performance under President Biden than president Trump and GDP growth is higher aggregate over President Biden than president Trump you answer inflation inflation inflation we do I mean look I I work for Mitt Romney I remember going back with the statistics and it doesn't hit the same way right when people are paying more for at the grocery store they feel it in a very acute way that showing them a chart doesn't penetrate the same way I want you to hit that again you live this in politics you live the messaging cruelty of having statistics going up against feelings and Impressions absolutely statistics can only take you so far trying out a bunch of economists to say a single mom in a swing state who's paying more for gas or groceries or insurance or rent or can't buy a house cuz the interest rates are too high it just does not work trust me on this Romney and his banee history try God bless him it just doesn't work how about crime the stats also say that violent crime is down and yet perceptions are exactly the opposite I think it's also not just violent crime it's the lawlessness if you go around the streets the deodorant locked up at the CVS there's homelessness is not violent crime always per se it's a feeling of lawlessness on the streets Matt Gorman thank you so very much we appreciate it thanks for your time here with the Republican Presidential tickets set well here's a question how will the Trump Vance ticket that's the new One impact down ballot races House and Senate races that's next your streaming America [Music] decides welcome back to America decides our friends at the cook political report recently shifted Six States toward former president Trump in the Electoral College ratings The nonpartisan political forecaster is looking at how this Republican party Edge for Trump might impact down ballot races across the country Aaron cvy and Jessica Taylor from the cook political report join us now they're both here with me in Milwaukee eron I want to start with you any sense and I know it's early days but how this convention JD Vance the events of the last three or 4 days might have an effect on how races in the 2024 campaign right it's really hard to say right now we don't even know the full effect of Biden's debate performance on a lot of these house races because the polling is so infrequent in house races it's so infrequent um and you're working at a really micro level and so we do know that for the whole cycle Biden has been a drag on house Democrats he's been pretty consistently underperforming them across polls and Republican polling Democratic polling nonpartisan polling that has been clear from the beginning of the cycle um the question now is how much of of a drag is he and is he going to make it impossible for Democrats to flip the house which is of course a huge priority for Democrats remind our audience how close the margin is and how many seats fall into a general Cate categorization of competitiveness from the cook political reports Vantage Point yeah so we have um currently about two dozen seats in the tossup category 24 roughly 24 roughly um but Democrats only need to net four seats if they're going to take control of the house so that gain of four seats switches control yep should be very doable um There are 16 Republicans who sit in seats that Biden won in 2020 the issue now is that a lot of those districts Biden's probably not going to win I talked to one Democrat who said he was expecting that Biden probably could lose as many as half of those now so now you're looking at a scenario where Democrats are having to overp overperform the top of the ticket which is a difficult thing for members of the house to do excellent Jessica I want to ask you uh because of what we just talked about house races much less frequently pulled than Senate races any sense of the impact of the last week or so or maybe even going back to the Biden debate on some of these key Senate races we do see more frequent polling and Senate races but I think just because of the timing of the debate where it happened the week before the 4th of July you know we're I think to see how if Republicans get a bump out of this convention and then obviously what happened on Saturday how that could factor into it but what we know is is true is that Senate Democrats at least they are outrunning Biden significantly we had one poll uh out recently in Wiis here in Wisconsin one of the major Senate races with Democrat Tammy Baldwin running against Republican Eric Hy she was outrunning Biden by 12 points now is that sustainable is that how much she needs to outrun him by I I I'm not sure that is sustainable if some of this sort of comes down but you know the question is you know in in other states like Montana that's Montana and Ohio that are the two most vulnerable you know Montana is a state that uh Trump won by 16 I've been talking with sources here in uh Milwaukee and they definitely think that he can win it by more than 20 points in Ohio where sharid Brown needs to outrun Biden in a state that uh Trump carried by eight points twice they absolutely think that's now in double digits so it just I think the the more Biden struggles it it just raises the bar for the political gravity that a lot of these Senate Democratic incumbents have to outrun the president by and in the out of that what you just said Jessica is this Dynamic which is of the moment I grant you bringing any state senate any Senate races into the realm of competitiveness that didn't look competitive maybe six to 12 weeks ago I would say I'm keeping an eye on some that are a little bit in the margins as we see some tighter uh presidential numbers New Mexico is one I'm keeping an eye on on um with uh you have Nella domeni there who is the Republican nominee her father was Pete domeni the longtime Senator there we are seeing some uh closer polling uh numbers there with her running against Martin Heinrich we still have that one rated solid Democrat but if we continue to see closer numbers that's what I'm going to be looking at in the coming weeks and eron I want to ask you is there anything that you are detecting from Republicans Or democrats in terms of advertis ing or messaging in these house races that shifted in the last week or two so I think there is definitely a shift with house Democrats um because they're now at the point where they can't be running with Biden they're going to be focused on running against Trump and against the Republican party so there has from the beginning of the cycle been a lot of focus on the issue of abortion where the Republican many members of the Republican Party are out of step with the majority of Americans on this issue so you see them going hard on that also project 2025 they Heritage foundation's policy proposals have um gotten a lot more attention in house races over the last week or so so I think we're going to be shifting to more of kind of a maybe check and balance message now that it looks more and more likely that Republicans would take control of the Senate and Trump is winning the White House Jessica very quickly about 45 seconds do you imagine that check and balance messaging might also crop up in some of these Senate races where Democrats are talking about hey protect the seats in case former president Trump is reelected absolutely I think that when you have such a slim margin Democrats could win every single Senate race though and it wouldn't be enough though if Trump wins the presidency because uh then vice president Advance would be the tiebreaker so even that check and balance message you could keep their numbers down to a republican majority but I still think again the calcul calculus there is just so tight in a what it's essentially a 50-50 Senate with West Virginia almost solidly flipping to the Republican column great to have Jessica Taylor and Aaron cubby with me here in Milwaukee thank you so very much that does it for me at least for now I will be back at 7:00 p.m. Eastern CBS News 247 will'll bring you continuous coverage of the Republican National Convention right here from Milwaukee The Daily Report with John Dickerson starts right now [Music]