ECB to cut 'even more aggressively' in 2025 if the economy weakens, ING Bank says

Published: Sep 15, 2024 Duration: 00:03:36 Category: News & Politics

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K sah sah whatever will be will be she says what's your view on this cut was it a doish cut or a hawkish cut I think that was a that was a very doish cut and um the ECB apologies the ECB you know has of course has this data dependency what every single Cal Bank should do they are monitoring data um when you listen very carefully to lagard she said it was pretty obvious that the path for monetary policy was to go down further when you also look at the inflation forecast there now they have been at 2% I think for five consecutive quarters expecting 2% by the end of 2025 so the ECB is pretty confident that the inflation is under control so if now the economy is weakening what I expect I see an ECB cutting more aggressively is starting in December and even more aggressively in the first half of next year okay so unpack it for me how much further do you see the ECB cutting rates from this point on and look there are others out there who say markets are a little too aggressive in pricing five plus cuts by the end of 2025 how would you respond to that I'm even more aggressive Don then to be to be honest because I think it wouldn't make sense for the ECB to spread out rate Cuts until the end of 2025 I think by the end of 2025 the Euro Zone economy and the global economy will have started to recover again so what I would expect is that we see a December cut 25 or 50 and then we will see in the first half of 2025 when we feel the soft lending in the US also coming over to Europe uh when we see continued growth issues in Europe and at the same time an inflation that is probably by then on below 2% um I see 100 basis points rate in the first half of next year and then the ECB would stop with a terminal rate of around 225 by the summer of next year okay I'm trying to think of ways to uh challenge your view here so how much of a headache do you think the euro is right now for the ECB and could currency concerns particularly given uh what we're seeing unfold at the FED right now uh limit the acb's room to cut what's your view not not really I think we are at 110 um and this is not a worry for for the ECB we we've seen a bit of a strengthening of the euro exchange rate over the last three month but this this is pret not a worry to the opposite I think it it would help the ECB getting inflation under control at the same time you also talked about oil prices earlier in the show we see that lower oil prices would also help the ECB getting inflation under control I think the biggest concern and probably the biggest risk for my call would be domestic inflation Services inflation being stickier than currently expected how could this come if we were to see a better economic outcome if we were to see that wage growth was to was continue to be higher throughout 2025 then I think my call would be challenged because then we would have an ECB still struggling um to find a good balance between on the one hand supporting a weak Euro Zone recovery but at the same time continued to fight inflation which then might be still too high

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