NFL Futures Best Bets: Post-NFL Week 1 Results and Outcomes

Swift Reactions to Week One in the NFL So, of course, as we enjoy doing at the end of week number one, our swift reactions, overreactions, San Francisco 49ers: Dominance Without McCaffrey perhaps. But it's a fun time of year in the National Football League. As we look back on Monday night Football in Santa Clara. The San Francisco 49 ers, even without the best offensive player in football Christian McCaffrey still looking darn good on both sides of that equation Jordan Mason has a career night in his very first career start. 28 carries 147 yards and a rushing score. Brock Purdy did not throw a touchdown but still looked very efficient. San Francisco put up 32 points, won by two touchdowns and covered as a 3.5. home favorite with making six field goals and not being able to pay off a couple of scoring drives by the way. Jake Moody, now in his second year, a perfect six for six, including a 53 yarder as his longest. That is why you draft a kicker in the third round, or at least if you do, he better make good on that price. So let's start with San Francisco, a team that entered this year a short favorite to win the NFC, a team that has played in the NFC Championship Game three consecutive seasons, four of the past five NFL years, and we expect them to be right back atop the NFC once again. And frankly, Joe, last night did not do anything to alter that vision for San Francisco this season. Absolutely nothing in fact. I mean, there's a ton of turnover on that defensive side of the ball, and you weren't quite sure what you were going to get from them. And the Jets, being a, you know, at least had been a very good rushing team with Breece Hall and company in the back. You were you were wondering, all right, well, let's see what this new look defense of the 40 niners is going to have here. We know offensively you're going to get exactly what we got for them. But the questions were defensively they struggled against really good running teams last year. But that wasn't a problem in week one here Ben. They seem to have been you know kind of like I would say week for week 3 or 4 kind of conditioning where the Jets looked like they are coming out of training camp. To be completely honest with you, there were a lot of questions about the 49 ers last night. Brandon Aiyuk on a snap count. What would Trent Williams look like as the left tackle, having signed his extension late last week? Aiyuk wasn't great. Two grabs for 28 yards but Trent Williams was out there. The entirety of the game had to go back to the locker room a few times and get an IV to stay hydrated and in shape, but really, no concern for San Francisco. One of the underrated storylines of yesterday that hand up. I did not even realize Leonard Floyd. Now on the defensive line for San Francisco, who last year played against Aaron Rodgers in the Jets in the Monday night opener in Buffalo and was the guy to sack Aaron Rodgers that led to the injury and the torn Achilles was the only guy to record a sack last night for the 40 Niners. That was part of what mentioned Joe for Gang Green and offensive line. That has caused some worry in New York, was actually pretty solid in protecting Aaron Rodgers last evening on a Monday night. So we expected San Francisco to be good. Breaking news. The San Francisco 49 ers are still very good. They have the second best price to win Super Bowl 59. We'll look at where the odds are after week one. In the shortest price to win the NFC crown at plus 230. It is half the price of everybody else the Jets' Performance and Future Expectations Eagles, the Lions and so forth in the NFC. But of course Joe our main reaction to Monday Night Football was going to be the New York Jets. So much expectation, hope and optimism. The last two offseasons it came to a quick conclusion last year with Aaron Rodgers being injured four plays into the year, but that same optimism followed this New York Jets franchise in the 2024 offseason. So after the first game of 2024, where are your expectations now for New York? Well, again, I think a lot of this is what happens to Hassan Reddick. Can they come to an agreement, get him on that defensive side, you know, when you're playing against a team that runs 70 offensive plays and you only run 49, it's going to be very hard to get a 40 some odd year old quarterback in rhythm. Ben, when he's not on the field nearly enough because the defense can't get off. So I think I do think it's going to be a work in progress. And don't we always say forget about what you see in September. Just forget about it. Let's see what we get. Come October. And that's I'm going to hold off judgment on the Jets until Hassan Reddick situation gets covered. And until we see Aaron Rodgers and a few more starts. I think the Jets front seven on the defensive side of the football more concerning than anything we saw out of the 40 year old quarterback. And Aaron Rodgers, you see nine and a half for the win total. The over still has the heavy juice at -142. We'll talk playoff price on the other side of the What did we see on Monday Night Football? To end out week number one. And what does it already mean for the next 17 weeks of this National Football League season? We start with Aaron Rodgers and the new York Jets. Joe, you see a -184 make playoff price for gang Green. The Jets have the longest postseason drought in the National Football Le. 13 straight seasons. But they are still heavily favored to make the NFL postseason. We'll hear from the public a little bit later on in this show, but I just wanted to make this point. Still expected to be a playoff team and I still think the New York Jets will get there. Beyond that, who knows. We'll see how much it is worth for Aaron Rodgers to be out there at the age of 40, but I still think even after last night losing by multiple scores, not keeping it close like the oddsmakers expected with just a three and a half point spread. The New York Jets are destined to be a playoff team in the AFC this year. Yeah and I think it's setting up Ben well for them because the Jets if they have Super Bowl aspirations, playoff aspirations while they just played a Super Bowl caliber team and they saw exactly where they stooo and a lot of the quotes coming out of the locker room after that game last night were just that, that we are nowhere near, where we need to be the 40 Niners are a championship quality team, so the good news is the schedule lines up well still for the Jets. You lose it to an NFC team. Who cares in game one? Except it's a wake up call which is fantastic. Now you got to play Tennessee. Then you're going to play New England. So you have a couple of weeks here in the month of September to get yourself right, figure some things out and get ready to really start the push in October. So it doesn't shock me that the line isn't going to move that much from where it was after this loss. I do think it's setting up pretty well, though, for the New York Jets. I think they needed that wakeup call last night and they got it in a big way. Listen, still, the fourth easiest schedule based on projected win totals in the NFL. And, Joe, one thing that Donny and I were breaking down yesterday that I will find incredibly interesting to follow throughout this year. The Jets without Aaron Rodgers in large part booked as an underdog 14 of 17 games in 2023. They were six and eight against the spread. Five of those six covers an outright victory. Of course, an underdog in week number one, zero and one against the number. But how many more times this season if Aaron Rodgers remains healthy? Will New York be booked as a dog entering a game? The Jets home opener is not until week three, so this upcoming week in Nashville against the Titans, the New York Jets are still a 4.5. road favorite. That's where I think the Jets will be from the oddsmakers perspective. Throughout a good majority of this 2024 campaign, the Jets did enter week number one as the slight AFC East divisional favorites. A couple of weird things happening in that division. The Dolphins and the bills now co-favorites at plus 180. The Jets back by only a dime at plus 190. The Jets though have a better price o win the A f c championship than that of Miami by two and a half dollars, but are behind Buffalo. Super Bowl and AFC/NFC Odds Analysis The bills have the fourth best number at 7 to 1. All to say, a lot of reshuffling in the odds after week one. And it's been really interesting, Joe, to look at the Super Bowl odds throughout this off season. The Chiefs have won two consecutive Lombardi Trophies looking to make NFL history, being the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls. But when the off season odds opened up, it was San Francisco about a half dollar in front of Kansas City. Then they were co-favorites. And then entering the season, the Chiefs had a better price. And then entering the Monday night finale of week number one, co-favorites were the 40 Niners and Chiefs once again at a 6 to 1 number. San Francisco dominant in week number one. The Chiefs winning of course as well. And now Kansas City is in front at a 5 to 1 price in San Fran at plus 550. But you can see there is that clear tier of two. It's Kansas City and San Francisco in front of the pack by five and a half bucks. And I do think that that list right there is going to be, that we're not going to have to change a lot of names on that list, at least through the first month of the season. I mean, those teams at those prices will move a little bit as the weeks progress here. But you know, those what, seven teams on that list there, Ben that those seven teams and let's say three weeks. Just the odds are going to be a little bit different and maybe a different order. But that's your seven there. I don't see anybody creeping in over the first month taking any of those names out of there. And keep in mind, the Bengals have neve, ever played the month of September well, but yet there they are at the bottom and still realistic with those odds. Yeah. Listen, the Cincinnati Bengals since playing in Super Bowl 56, in Los Angeles, have started the next three seasons losing their opener. Now all three years and they have been a touchdown favorite at bare minimum, which means that the Bengals, who also then started all three of those years following that appearance in a Super Bowl loss week number two and started zero for winless zero and two. And that would seem to be the case, at least based on the odds for the marquee matchup Sunday afternoon in Arrowhead. The Chiefs and the Bengals. The rivalry renewed with Kansas City booked as a five and a half point home favorite. So, Joe, as we go elsewhere around not only just the A, f C, but the super Bowl odds as well. The Ravens move back ever so slightly, losing by a touchdown in KC. But I do want to focus on the NFC because you see only two other teams on this list of seven for the changing market after week. Number one, San Francisco, a dominant performance. And we expect to be that top team in the NFC. Once again. They are half the price of Philadelphia plus 230 for the 40 Niners to win the NFC title. Philly is plus 470. They got to win week number one in a marquee primetime spot Friday night over green Bay. Detroit got a win week number one in overtime against the Rams. And that marquee prime time spot the Lions now plus 550. How far in front Joe if at all in your estimation, are the 40 niners from the rest of the crowd in the NFC? Well I mean, judging just by week one that those two teams there that just faced each other in the big game and are on track to do it again. All things being equal now, a lot can happen between now and then. But I do think after this weekend we can look at it and go, you know, listen the Chiefs bit, you know beat a pretty good Ravens team. And while the Jets aren't exactly there yet, we had a lot of questions about this 40 Niners team with all the distractions and without McCaffrey and everything else. And they still steamrolled. So I do think those two are a just heads and tails above everyone else right now. And so let's look at the Super Bowl 59 odds as a full picture. Right now the ten best prices to win that Lombardi Trophy. The Bengals fall off a 20 to 1 number. The Lionsd the Eagles round out the top four alongside the 40 Niners. With the Chiefs, the team out of the A, F c having the shortest number. The Ravens, Texans, Cowboys, bills. Also included in the top ten. Joe. Of those teams that are outside the top five, but in the top ten Texans, Cowboys and Bills three teams that we always expect, at least with Houston taking that mantle right now with the expectations in 2024. Are you buying in on any of those numbers after week one? Or maybe you were buying in before the season got started, no, again, I think the overreaction for the Cowboys is going to be laughable here, the Bengals are always intriguing because they were, without a doubt, the worst loss on the board in week one. But we've been here and we've done this before, and we've seen this with this team. So the Bengals would be the only one that I'd be interested in looking at. Moving forward, because I think as they win games, that number decreases in a big way. Once Chase is on the field with burrow. So Bengals started zero and 2 in 2022. They went on to win I think their next six games they finished the regular season 13 and three. Of course not playing one complete game because of the Damar Hamlin incident that happened in Buffalo on a Monday night. But then even last year, Joe, after the zero and two start, since he rattled off four wins in their next five games and then they lost one. And then Joe B The odds update after week number one is now completed in full around the National Rookie Quarterbacks' Debut Evaluations Football League. That includes the rookie quarterbacks we saw on display. Three of the six that were drafted in the first 12 selections of 2024. Starting week number one for their organizations, that included the number one overall pick, Caleb Williams. Number two overall pick Jayden Daniels, and of course, the 12th overall selection, Bo Nix. I don't think you would say it was a stellar debut for any of these three quarterbacks in any of their spots. The only thing that was different among the three Caleb's team, Chicago got a win, not because of the offense that did not register a point outside of a converted two point conversion, but because of the defense and the special teams coming all the way back to knock off the Tennessee Titans in week number one in that second half. Joe, what was your evaluation of the three rookie quarterbacks that started week one on Sunday? Well, you know, Caleb Williams was interesting because I think that's the first time in what 20 years that a number one draft pick as a quarterback ended up winning their first game, and ironically enough, it had absolutely nothing to do with Caleb Williams, he had absolutely no hand in winning that game at all. It was the defense and special teams that ended up getting it done for the, for the bears. I thought Jayden Daniels, was poised in a tough spot there on the road, against a baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay team. That was obviously going to put up some points. I thought he did pretty good with the legs and the arm. And Bo Nix with the 12th man. Not an easy place to start your career there. I thought he I thought he handled it pretty well. Couple of bad interceptions. But you got to expect that with a rookie. I mean all in all for the first game on all three guys, it wasn't terrible. But your number one draft pick there was the worst of all three of those guys. So when you look at where these guys were and the statistical output in their career debuts in the National Football League, Caleb looked a little bit spooked. He looked a little bit shaky, which, as we heard in hard Knocks, he admitted himself he never gets nervous. You would not be able to tell from the performance in week number one. Making decisions, throwing the football as a rookie might in their very first NFL game. Bo Nix also kind of doing that. His second interception less than six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, led to Adam Archuleta, who was on the call for CBS, going, oh no! Before the ball was even intercepted by the Seattle secondary, Jayden Daniels did not make a ton of questionable decisions. It wasn't an overwhelming, prolific day through the air. He did have 88 yards utilizing the athleticism Offensive Rookie of the Year Contenders and two rushing scores, but not many of the decisions that left you being like, what is this? I don't know if this guy's ready to write that kind of thing. So there is at least a little bit of confidence in Jayden Daniels. And I honestly think there's a little bit of confidence in all three of these guys. We did see a little bit of change in the Offensive Rookie of the year market as well. My favorite movement is not Caleb Williams moving back or Jayden Daniels having more than a dollar shaved off that price or anything with Bo Nix. It's the fact that Michael Penix Jr dropped by $20.70 5 to 1 early in the preseason. Now 55 to 1. Maybe that's not all week one movement because Kirk Cousins was so terrible for Atlanta. The oddsmakers now expect or the betting public that Penix Jr will get a couple of shots this year. I just kind of laugh at that price dropping by 20 bucks when we do not expect to see Michael Penix Jr at all. And if we do and not just because of a Kirk Cousins injury, it's a really bad thing in the ATL. Yeah, let me and let me just point out while the market is overreacting to everything, keep in mind that Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix combined for just as many touchdowns in week one as Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr and J.J. McCarthy threw. So the answer is zero people. We've got absolutely no passing touchdowns from any of them. So let's not overreact and run to the window and spend money on what may be. The reality is, not one of those guys on a list has a passing touchdown. Yet in the NFL. Yeah, that is very true. And another guy that was not a quarterback expected to contend for this award Marvin Harrison Jr. Pretty much the same price of plus 750. But the fourth overall pick we thought would come in to the NFL right away and groove with Kyler Murray. The card scored 28 points in Western New York against Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, but Marvin Harrison Jr just one grab for four yards, his price still third best at plus 750. How about a couple of other rookie wideouts. Xavier Worthy three touches two touchdowns for Kansas City a lot to like in that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid offense. Malik Nabers man I feel for you. You got Daniel Jones throwing you the football. Not sure that price of 15 to 1 is going to get shorter anytime soon. No it's not and I'll tell you just keep an eye on another name on that list Ben, because I thought Thomas Junior in Jacksonville, this kid is going to be really, really good. And a lot of people thinking that it could be the steal of the draft. And when it all comes down to it, we might be talking about him and Trevor Lawrence more than we're talking about anybody else here. So I think this kid is I think he's going to be special. And I think they're going to utilize him in Doug Peterson's offense a lot. This year. He looked really good on Sunday in his career debut, catching a touchdown when things were going well for the Jaguars in that opening half. The second half, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense held scoreless. Tough day for Travis Etienne, who did have that costly fumble. But four targets for grabs, 47 yards, a touchdown for the other wide receiver out of LSU drafted in the opening round. Brian Thomas, junior. And I will just say we see the market movement in a positive way. On Jayden Daniels plus 470 $0.20 added on to the number for Caleb Williams. He was not good in his career. Debut for Chicago. But Joe, the reason that I had Caleb Williams winning the Offensive Rookie of the year award entering this season is because quarterbacks have a tough thing to win. The offensive rookie of the year hardware because they normally get drafted early to a bad team where not much is expected. And the bears somehow, some way, still found their way to a win over the Titans, even covering inside Soldier Field pretty much to say that if your quarterback as a rookie can lead your team to overall success, a winning record, a playoff spot, it looks good in the rookie of the year hardware. The stats will need to be better, but the bears win total is still eight and a half in the over. Still has the MVP Race After Week One From the rookies to the vets, the offensive rookie of the year award odds update to now. The MVP race after week number one, Patrick Mahomes entered the year as the favorite to win his third NFL MVP award. His second trorophy in the last three seasons. The Chiefs looked good on Thursday night in the season debut, Mahomes throwing for nearly 302 91 to be exact, a touchdown and an interception. And the price has grown shorter. Plus 350. Now the number on Mahomes to win the NFL MVP award seems a little bit exaggerated. Josh Allen four total touchdowns to lead Buffalo back to a victory over Arizona in the home opener on Sunday afternoon, and C.J. Stroud continues to do. C.J. Stroud, things 234 yards, two touchdowns. Clean football as Houston wins in a high scoring affair in Indianapolis. Week number one. Joe, those are the three guys with a three digit price less than 10 to 1 or shorter. Mahomes, Allen, Stroud. All justified to have that short of a number. Listen, I'll keep it simple with this, Ben. I think whoever you believe is going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl is your MVP. So whoever you is that you think is going to make it and run the run the table and play the NFC, that is going to be your MVP. So if you think Houston this year has a legit shot to win the AFC crown and Stroud is going to be it. If you think it's Baltimore well then they're going to have to beat Mahomes at somewhere along the line here and get it done. He's going to have to have an unbelievable year. Make it Lamar. And we already know if the bills can run it. The only way the bills are running the table is if Josh Allen has an MVP year. So who do you think is going to win the AFC that is going to be your MVP. Because every one of those guys in the AFC are better than any of the guys listed in the NFC. When you look at those prices right there, there are 3 or 4 quarterbacks. I should say, in the top ten from the NFC. But the shortest number is Jalen Hurts who looked a little bit shaky in Sao Paulo with two INTs. But of the what is that the seven best prices I guess there's a group at 16 to 1. But of those seven first names that you see, hurts is the only quarterback from the NFC. And then Purdy who was alongside Jackson and Tagovailoa at a 16 to 1 number. Dak Prescott follows suit at 18 to 1. I still have a little bit of belief in Jared Goff at a 20 to 1 price. Knowing the offensive numbers should be very good this year under Ben Johnson. I don't know why Mahomes is necessarily that short at plus 350. It wasn't like he was incredible by Mahomes standard. And that is a standard that requires him surpassing it to win the NFL MVP award. Josh Allen was really, really good against Arizona and frankly had to be 18 of 23 for 232 yards and two touchdowns, 39 yards on the ground and two scores as well. A couple of those MVP contenders, Tua and Josh, will face off on Thursday night to start week number two. 48.5 is the total in Miami. The Dolphins, a point and a half favorite. Frankly, at this moment, Joe, I'm not sure any of those prices are worth a bet. But I do agree with your analysis that the team that wins the A, F, C probably has the best opportunity of having that MVP front runner, and you're getting Joe Burrow, who is 10 to 1 entering the year now at a 15 to 1 price. He was not great. Cincinnati was awful and atrocious in their home debut against New England on Sunday I yeah not not good and I do think you'll have any one of those guys I think over the first four games Ben is probably going to take a step back. And I think that is when you probably want to jump in. If you're going to be in this market, wait until one of those quarterbacks has a has a bad game or the team loses and then watch the overreaction in the marketplace. The only one that's not going to move is Mahomes. And we all know it and with good reason. Yeah. And that's really the case right. If you didn't bet one of these guys in the preseason I don't know if you're gaining an odds advantage either from a longer number or a shorter price that makes you feel even more justified on your early season. Thoughts. We know C.J. Stroud is going to be in consideration. At a point last year, as he was already etching his name on the NFL offensive Rookie of the Year Award trophy in week 8 or 9. He was a part of the NFL MVP consideration. He looks really good. And again, one of the things about C.J. Stroud that was so impressive during his rookie season, how great care he took of the football. He had five interceptions in total. Three of those coming in a single game. It took him 177 attempts to even throw his first interception. That was an