NFL Best Bets Week 2: Buffalo Bills Lead AFC East After TNF Win

Buffalo Bills' Week Two Victory Analysis Added significance to a week two victory on the road for Buffalo in a divisional game. They take the victory over Miami in outright fashion, winning as a 2.5. underdog in South Florida against the Dolphins again 14 times. That's it. That Buffalo has been an underdog since the start of 2020. Why do I use that time frame? Ranieri it's the four consecutive seasons that the bills have won an AFC East divisional crown 14 times a dog seven outright victories eight and six against the spread in Buffalo and Miami entered last night. Co-favorites in the A F C East, both at plus 180, both just $0.10 in front of the New York Jets at a plus 190 number following week. Number one despite some odds positivity entering the season and New York entering as the divisional favorites in the A, F C East. Here's Miami Dolphins' Quarterback Concerns where things stand right now. Of course, not just based on a dominant bills performance in South Florida, but the injury uncertainty surrounding Tua Tagovailoa. We start with Buffalo plus 105. The bills now the division favorites in the A, F C East once again in the shortest numbers we have seen on the bills at any point of this offseason preseason training camp. Now into the regular season to contend for an AFC title and win a Super Bowl 6 to 1. Ranieri to win the A, F c 11 to 1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Yeah. And listen, all of that makes sense. It's a great start for the Buffalo Bills right now. A ton of uncertainty for the Miami Dolphins right now. I mean that those numbers could be they might as well be 120 to 1 at this point. Because until they can figure out what the quarterback position is going to look like and mark this down here, Ben Stevens, today, I am telling you the phone call is already happened. There will be a reunion with Ryan Tannehill in a Miami Dolphins uniform. By the time we get to the next dolphin game, they need somebody like that to be able to come in with the kind of weapons that they have here. I do think Buffalo is shown. And but here's the other problem with Buffalo. Ben, we've seen this before. Have we not with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. We've seen this kind of dominance early in the season and go whoa. They're going to be unstoppable. Yeah well they're still a dude named Mahomes playing. And until they can beat him I'm not interested in hearing about what a super Bowl team this is. Yeah there's never been a question about Buffalo with Josh Allen since 2020 when he started playing like an MVP caliber quarterback. What they can do in the regular season four straight divisional championships. However, in that four year run, only one appearance in the A, F C title, and that was four years ago in 2020. In Arrowhead, they got bounced by the Chiefs. The last three years they've been bounced in the divisional round despitete having home field advantage. Each of the previous two seasons. So three of the four years bounced in the divisional round. Three of the four years bounced by that guy Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City club. Has your outlook at all changed on Buffalo then, or does it still remain the same? It's a new cast and crew in large part for Buffalo, but Josh Allen is still the quarterback. Is it a wait and see approach? I guess then still in the bills in your mind of actually being a true AFC title contender there? As long as Josh Allen is healthy and under center, they're going to have a chance. Now I will caution bills fans and they know this. You have not played a real defense yet. And you know the problem with having Josh Allen running around all the time now like he is, he's going to get killed by better defenses. And then all of a sudden now you got to worry kind of like well Miami's worried about the whole reason they stopped running him is because they were trying to prolong his availability and not have him get killed. They keep running. This the better defenses that they play. There's going to be some problems here. So I hope they can find a better mix of than just Josh Allen scrambling left. Josh Allen New York Jets' Divisional Standings scrambling right. So the Jets of course Joe on Monday night Football we recap the game together on Tuesday morning did not look very good in Santa Clara against the 40 niners in game. Green entered the year again with some odds positivity in some late movement before the season kicked in front of Buffalo and Miami as the AFC East title favorites, their price now 2 to 1. They trail the bills by nearly a buck. Of course, the Jets are just trying to get to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. The last time they won a division was 2002, which was the year of some division reshuffling around the National Football League to have divisions of four teams to look the way they do. It's been more than two decades since the New York Jets won a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals Preview A huge game as many of them are inside Arrowhead Stadium. That features the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. It's the marquee matchup of Sunday in the afternoon window on in game live on Sunday, Joe Ranieri and Mike Flewitt will be previewing that game as the early window wraps up. Before we dive into the numbers for this specific Sunday showdown, let's look at the history between this budding rivalry in the A, F c the narrative Joe around the first three meetings between Burrow and Mahomes was the Joe had Patrick's number in Cincinnati was ahead two regular season matchups late in both 2021 and 2022 went the way of the Bengals, but no. Most notably, it was 2021 the Bengals winning the A, f c championship in Arrowhead in overtime. But as of late, Kansas City has had the answer. They edge out Cincinnati the following year in the A, F C championship game. They go on to Super Bowl 57 and win their first of now two consecutive Lombardi Trophies over Philadelphia. And then last year, Joe Burrow did not play in the week 17 game, but still very important for KC because if you remember at the time, the Chiefs were slumping, there was a thought that they could lose the A, F c West division. They had won seven consecutive seasons and they picked up a 2517 win over Jake Browning and the Bengals. But it's been a good series between these two organizations, which is interesting when you look at the numbers for Sunday. Yeah. And the problem is and this is a just a huge value play for me, Ben, because I was all over Cincinnati when this line opened up at six and a half, then it was six. Now it's down to five and a half here. It wouldn't shock me if it even gets to five, listen, this is total overreaction to what we saw from Kansas City against Baltimore. Keeping in mind that Patrick Mahomes in that game had six count them six plays of at least 20 yards or more last week. I can assure you, Joe Anarumo, there and the Trey Henderson are not going to allow Patrick Mahomes to sit back there and throw the ball all over the field and beat them deep here. Joe Burrow always Zac Taylor always terrible out of the gate in game one. But then what happens is as the season progresses, they get better and better and better, turnovers killed the offense last week against New England. I promise you that will not be the case here. I am fully anticipating a night and day turnaround with what we're going to get from the Bengals in this one, five and a half point spread in favor of the Chiefs. 47.5 is the over under for Sunday in Kansas City. It should be no surprise to see Mahomes and the Chiefs as a home favorite. Even a hefty home favorite against a team that I would still think we expect to contend for an A, f c crown. And it hasn't been Buffalo. It hasn't been Baltimore. It hasn't been the Chargers of the Raiders or the Broncos in the A, F c West. The only team that has really stood in the way of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the A, F c in the last five years is Joe Burrow. And Cincinnati. So that five and a half point spread the only issue. Renee, you're right. Since he does get better as the season progresses, just not often, at least in the last two years. By week two, we said this after Cincy dismally lost their season opener as a 7.5. home favorite against the New England Patriots, the Bengals, since knocking off the Chiefs in OT in the 2021 AFC Championship Game and playing in Super Bowl 56 in Los Angeles. The next three seasons, including this year, have lost their season opener outright, booked as at least a touchdown favorite in the previous two years. Ranieri. They have also lost week number two, of course, in 2022, they won four of their next six. They ended the regular season winning eight straight. They had won ten straight entering that a f c title in Kansas City against the Chiefs last year, before Joe Burrow got banged up after the zero and two start. Since he won four of their next five, they lost to Houston the following week. We're looking pretty good early in that short week. Thursday Night Football game against Baltimore before the wrist injury that sidelined Joe Burrow for the remainder of the season. And Joe, there's been some videos showing Joe Burrow week one against the Pats, shaking out the injured wrist from last year. There appeared to be an issue with the way he grabbed a Gatorade bottle on the sideline. It doesn't sound like you are concerned about Cincy entering this matchup against Kansas City. Should the betting public b? Well, they're not either, Ben, because this opened up at six and a half. And yet here we sit on Friday. The money ain't coming in on Kansas City. So how he grabs a Gatorade bottle apparently doesn't bother the folks that shape the market right now. And I'll tell you why. To me, it's very simple. We can both agree that there are certain quarterbacks in the NFL in which they have done enough, and a big enough sample size, where you give them the benefit of the doubt, like Joe Burrow, for instance, as an underdog, 17, two and two against the number is in his career as an underdog of more than two points. And guess what? In those games, ten and three, straight up as a underdog, when they're getting two or more points here. And don't forget the Bengals under Joe Burrow when they have failed to score 17 points in the previous game. They're 11 and two against the number in the next game. Give me Cincinnati. Stop fading Joe Burrow. The rest is fine. And when you think about that AFC Championship game in 2022, the Kansas City answered at home from losing the year prior in OT, the Bengals were a four and a half point underdog in that game, so they did end up covering the number of course, as we shared last week as a home favorite with Patrick Mahomes as the starter in Kansas City since the start of 2018. After the win and cover against Baltimore to open up the season, the Chiefs are now 28, 27 and three against the spread. But to Joe's point in 2020, Joe Burrow only played ten games. But I think in every one the Bengals were an underdog. If you even take when the resurgence in Cincinnati happened starting the following year in 2021, the Bengals, as a dog 14 and seven against the spread 14 and 7ATS they have been very, very good when getting points. Last week, Joe Burrow only 164 yards two 29.5 is the number for this week. The Bengals have moved back in the marketplace to a 10 to 1 price. Now to win Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears Showdown the A f So the marquee matchup of Sunday might actually be in the afternoon hours 4:25 p.m. eastern time to kick in Casey between the Chiefs and the Bengals. But Sunday Night Football is still a very intriguing matchup to H. Town. We go. The Texans host the bears six and a half point spread in favor of Houston. 45 in a hook is the over under part of the reason Joe this is a very compelling matchup is because you have the number one overall pick from this year versus the number two overall pick from last year. That would be Caleb Williams versus C.J. Stroud. TJ Stroud, who had a sensational rookie season 4108 passing yards, ran away with the Offensive Rookie of the year award by like week six, week seven and led his team to a playoff appearance, a divisional championship, and a playoff win. In his very first NFL season. The same expectations that are kind of being tossed around when it comes to Caleb Williams and the bears. So this is another one of these great situations been in week two where we get a whole lot of overreaction, right? I will just tell folks that while, yes Caleb Williams look like, oh, are you ready for this? A rookie, that's exactly what he looked like there, the reason that they loaded the defensive side of the ball was for that reason. There. You do realize the look ahead line to this game was about three, three and a half and then, of course, the immediate reaction after they barely won that game against Tennessee is that oh no. Houston's going to be you know their World Series champ. And they bet this thing up Ben as high as a touchdown. It looks like it's come back here just a hair. And to me this is all about the value that you get with the Chicago Bears. That is a real defense Ben. Make no mistake about it. It's certainly going to be better than what the Houston Texans faced against Indy, which, by the way, coming off AA2 point win against a division rival is never an easy game to play the following week. And that's what they got right now with Chicago on the road, albeit in Indianapolis, the Colts did cover as a three and a half point home underdog. I'll get to the trends for the Texans as a favorite with C.J. Stroud in just a moment. But Joe, to your point, the bears, often under Matt Eberflus, have been booked as an underdog. He has been the head coach for 34 regular season games, now 35. But they were favored by a field goal and a hook last week in the Windy City. And because of the defense and special teams in the second half, rally against the Titans, they covered the number. But in the previous two years as a dog, 11, 16 and one against the spread and not very good. 2022 Eberflus his rookie season as a head coach, just five and ten against the number, often as an underdog last year, better including in that home stretch. They were six six and one ATS as an underdog. Chicago won five of their final seven games, last regular season, which led to the debate around Justin Fields, which Chicago retained the number one overall pick but kind of lost in that discussion. Joe was Matt Eberflus, taking back the reins as the defensive play caller in the Windy City. Even as the head coach in a defense that really sparked that great end of the season. In the five victories in the last seven games. And that was on display Sunday against Will Levis, who? Boy, that guy stinks at the quarterback position. And then Joe you go maybe to some overreactions from the prop perspective. Caleb Williams entering his rookie debut for the bears last week at Soldier Field. Two 42.5, was his passing yards prop. Okay, maybe a little bit lofty for a guy that was 14 of 29 for only 93 yards, the number is dropped by nearly 30 yards entering Sunday Night Football in Houston. 214 in a hook for Caleb on the other side for C.J. Stroud, 200 and 63.5 his passing yards prop. Yeah, and I would imagine that yeah we're going to get a few more yards here and expectations are once again diminishing here because of what we got last week. But that's why I love week two and week three in the NFL. Ben. The overreactions are just crazy. After one game. Love it. And we'll get to some of those overreactions, at least in my estimation. When we start our number two on this Football Friday. On the other side of the break, you might see 214 and a hook for a bears quarterback and say, that seems pretty fair for what we know in Chicago last year, C.J. Stroud became the fifth rookie quarterback to throw for more than 4000 yards. The bears have never had a 4000 yard passer in a single season in franchise history. Caleb has to be better than 215 yards. If the bears are going to be a winning team and earn a playoff berth, he cannot be. Justin Fields reincarnate in terms of the passing yards, numbers in Chicago do the same thing. Keep an eye on that prop for Sunday Welcome to our number two live right here on this football Friday on the early line on Sports Grid. He is Joe Ranieri. I am Ben Stevens. We are already deep into the week two slate around the National Football League. Plenty of previews and picks coming. Your way in this second hour. Hour three Joe Ranieri. A lot of college football conversations as well, and we're going to have to ask our guest in this second hour. Your co host on Sundays, Mike Blewett a college football conversation as well because of the fact his Boston College Eagles ranked 24th in the country. Visit Columbia, Missouri, tomorrow to take on the sixth ranked Tigers in the only ranked versus ranked matchup that we have. We'll get a lot of that NFL insight from Big Blue on this football Friday as well. Yeah, I, I didn't see that happening. And I'm fairly certain when we ask, Mike Blewett if he had, BC as a top 25 team at this point, I'm fairly certain he is going to say, yeah, no, but hey, and if they win that game, we're talking top 15. Ben, I mean, the sky is the limit here now for Boston College. Yeah, no doubt about it. Trust in the NFC Championship Contenders in Action chin. His name is Bob. Bill. O'Brien. All right. Ranieri. In the early window on Sunday, three of the four best prices to win the NFC Championship, all in action. That includes the favorites out in that conference. The 40 niners in Minneapolis. The Lions, who played San Francisco in that NFC title game, a season ago. They host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a playoff rematch from the Divisional round, a season ago, and the Dallas Cowboys. Can they get to an NFC Championship game? Finally, for the first time in nearly three decades, we talked a lot in the opening hour, Joe. We looked at the game in Kansas City some market overreaction there between the Chiefs and the Bengals. Perhaps, maybe Sunday Night Football as well. Between the Texans and the bears, how do you feel about this one? Dallas nearly a touchdown favorite at home against New Orleans. The Saints potentially had the most impressive victory of week number 147 to 10. Absolutely blowing out Carolina and a Saints offense that was inept a year ago. Scores 47 points. Dallas, though, as a slight road underdog in Cleveland, wins outright on the very day that Dak Prescott became the richest player in National Football League history, nearly a touchdown in favor of the boys at the star in the home debut in Jerry world. What gives? So we knew that the New Orleans Saints, our biggest concern with New Orleans coming to this year was the offensive line, right. They beat their longtime right tackle, ended up retiring. We weren't sure whether or not, they were going to be able to recruit enough draft enough, and sign enough to kind of offset that. And yet they were I believe they ranked as the best pass rusher, offensive line last week. But I don't know if that's because Carolina is just absolutely terrible on the defensive side of the ball or Klint Kubiak, you know, is the offensive coordinator around in New Orleans. And boy, oh boy, the apple didn't fall too far from the tree. Derek Carr was using play action all over the place. He was dropping back and slinging it and they were able to run the ball. So this is going to be Mike Zimmer against a Kubiak, with Dallas and New Orleans. Derek Carr looked real. I mean, real comfortable there. Forget that. It was Carolina. The play action, the weapons he has. And if that offensive line holds up and you know, Kubiak, I mean, his dad was one of the best schemers. And block, you know, navigators there is the offensive lines were always amazing under him. If New Orleans can stand up against that pass rush of Dallas, we're going to get a lot of points in this game. And I think we're going to get a ton of points in this game. So you see that total 46.5. The Cowboys scored 33. The Saints were the only team to go past 40 last week in week number one. They were the best scoring offense of the weekend. Now New Orleans does start last season first month and a half with Derek Carr as its quarterback. It was a struggle. Eighth worst scoring offense in the national football League, averaging just a tick over 18 points per game, but started to play better down the home stretch. They actually ended the regular season ranked in the top ten, averaging nearly 23.5 points per game. Again 47 points last week against Carolina and you see the total at 46.5. I think this game, Joe has a really big chance for the Saints to kind of change the narrative around its team. Last year, with Derek Carr entering the season, the divisional favorites in the NFC South this year, kind of the forgotten team. The bucks won a division for the third straight year, and it was Kirk Cousins and the Falcons that had all the off season love. Next up we go to Detroit. Playoff rematch from a season ago in the divisional round. Baker Mayfield and the Bucks Jared Goff and Detroit. The Lions winning in overtime against the Rams on Sunday Night Football to end out our first full Sunday slate 26 to 20 Detroit covers as a 4.5. home favorite. The bucks were great against the Washington Commanders, winning comfortably 37 to 20. In the final score. Probably not even all that indicative of how good Tampa was. Baker Mayfield nearly 300 yards, four passing touchdowns. The Buccaneers easily covering as a 3.5. home favorite. But now on the road, they're getting more than a touchdown. Detroit led more than a touchdown in a playoff rematch from a season ago that also features Joe. The only total total north of 50 for Sunday, that highest number at 51. And a hook. Yeah. Opened at 48, 48.5. And while the market told you what they thought of that number, as you mentioned, Ben, over 51.5. But it's interesting you brought up that matchup that playoff battle back in January with these two teams. Because let's look at that. If we could. The Lions closed as a six point favorite against the bucks in that playoff game right. Yeah. The problem is the Tampa Bay defense is ten times worse than it was on that team in January. While Detroit's defense between free agency and the draft is much, much improved. Don't forget Shaquil Barrett was the big Buccaneer edge rusher last year. They didn't resign him. They also lost Devin White this offseason. They also lost their starting quarterback, Carlton Davis, who by the way, is on the Lions. And to make matters worse, Antoine Winfield out, now after he got hurt along with their starting quarterback Zion McCollum. So they basically have nobody left in the secondary. And the linebacking crew that represented that team a year ago in that playoff game. And yet they were a six point favorite there. It opened up at six here. And it's now up to seven and a half. And I could not agree with the line move more. These are two totally different teams. Defensively only the Lions got better and the Bucs got worse. Give me the Lions all day in a blowout here. Oh 3123 Detroit victorious last year in the division round. Total of 49.5 did go over it was a one score game. The Bucs had the football back late in the fourth quarter deep in their own territory. Baker Mayfield ended up throwing his second pick of the afternoon last season. Joe, these two secondaries ranked in the bottom six around the NFL. Two of the six worst passing defenses around the National Football League, both given up nearly 250 yards per game. And we saw that on display. Baker threw for 349 yards. Jared Goff 287 and two touchdowns. Now let's go to the Twin Cities Minneapolis back at home hammering the new York Giants. But who amongst us has not 28 to 6. The win in MetLife but Sam Darnold efficient solid Justin Jefferson catching a touchdown as well San Francisco great on Monday night looking the ilk of the NFC front runner once again five and a half point spread in favor of the 40 niners in Minneapolis. Total 46.5 Christian McCaffrey not expected to play in this game for a second consecutive week. What do you like Joe? I like what they're doing with Sam Darnold. He completed his first 12 passes and it wasn't dinking and dunking Ben 33% of those passes were over ten or more yards. Watch out. Sam Darnold building a little confidence. And isn't this exactly where we fade the 40 Niners on the road. Isn't that how it works. I think so. San Francisco has been a favorite in every single football Live right here on this football Friday on the early line we focused on the NFC. Now we turn our attention to the AFC in this Jets vs. Titans: Aaron Rodgers' Challenge segment. Will Aaron Rodgers lead the Jets to a victory on Sunday in Nashville. Not an easy start to the year perhaps Joe for New York just based on travel and scheduling logistics to begin 2024 Monday night out in Northern California. Short week back home for a few days. Head out to Nashville to take on the Titans. The schedule and the travel. Not all that kind playing Tennessee after the display we saw out of Will Levis in week number one. Maybe that's a little bit better on paper. The Jets a 3.5. road favorite total of 41 and a hook. This line has been moving it was three and a half, four and a half. Now back down to just north of a field goal. How do you handicap the matchup in Tennessee on Sunday afternoon? I would I there's no way that you can trust Will Levis not to turn the ball over. Especially when the defense gets ratcheted up. And I promise you the Jets defense will be better than they were against the 40 Niners. They're also not taking on the 40 Niners offense or offensive line here. So I do think the advantage Jets on defense. Aaron Rodgers I have more faith in him not turning the ball over when it matters most. And much like we saw last night with Buffalo taking, you know you can't be careless with the ball to and that's exactly what ended up happening in that game. And I got the feeling even though they're a home dog band, how can you trust Will Levis and this Tennessee team if they're down to make enough smart plays and not turn the ball over against a Jets defense? Who's got to be hungry? I can only look the Jets here in this one. This is one of my favorite spots on the entirety of the week two slate. I think Aaron Rodgers and the Jets perform very well. I think they can put up a lot of points, but mainly I think the defense responds. And that was the main concerning part. Joe of Monday night, not the rust of a 40 year old quarterback coming off of a torn Achilles. A little bit of the ground game, struggling against San Francisco, perhaps, but the defense for the Jets, if they are going to snap the 13 year playoff drought, that's what was concerning. They get a golden opportunity against this Tennessee team. Will Levis can make me eat my words at some point. Never thought he would be a successful NFL quarterback. Do not expect that. After what we saw week number one, perhaps the worst interception. And there's been a ton of bad ones. Perhaps the worst interception these two eyes have ever seen as he's falling off a pitch that was taken back by Chicago for the game winning touchdown that resulted in Levis in the middle of the play on the field at Soldier Field, doing a surrender. Cobra on his knees, a meme ified moment of week number one. Joe, if you had to guess, since Robert Saleh became the head coach of gangrene, how many times have the Jets been booked as a favorite on the road, no less, not, not maybe twice, if we're lucky once. So I think nine, nine times in total. Joe Nine times in total since the start of 2021. That's just as a favorite as a road favorite. Four times. Four times. Okay. Robert Saleh became the head coach in 2021, in the New York Jets overall have been booked as a favorite only nine times. A road favorite four times. They are two and two straight up as a road favorite, they are five and four straight up as a favorite overall, and they are three, five and one against the number. The only team booked as a favorite less than the new York Jets in the last. Now three plus years. Be the other team in New York. The Giants just seven times. But that to me, Joe, is a very fascinating case that we talked about on Tuesday. Following Monday night, Donny and I were breaking it down Monday night, entering the season opener for Aaron Rodgers in Santa Clara. With a team expected to win double digit games if Aaron Rodgers remains healthy and a team expected and favored at close to a 2 to 1 price with a minus in front to snap the 13 season postseason drought, how often are they going to be booked as a favorite? Or perhaps how many more times an underdog there a three and a half point road favorite for what will be the fifth time in now four years under Robert Saleh and the Jets are 18 and 34. In that span. Now let's focus on number eight in white, not will Levis. That's Aaron Rodgers two 27.5 is his prop. Joey only threw the football 21 times on Monday or 23 times on Monday. The attempt prop was 33.5 against the Niners. Tom Vecchio love the under. It was a great look. 32.5 is the number for week number two. Do you think Aaron Rodgers and the Jets open it up a little bit more offensively on Sunday against the Titans. Well I think first and foremost they they are going to need to establish the run right. They're going to need to get Breece Hall going. And I can promise you if they have success on that front, Aaron Rodgers will will pick them apart and have an opportunity. Now keep in mind, though, that's a pretty good secondary that Tennessee has put together via the draft and free agency, including, you know, Snead is now in that secondary not Kansas City anymore. So, you know, that's, sauce and company are going to have their hands full on one side. And I do think that secondary against Aaron Rodgers, that's why I think the running game is going to be valuable. If they can get it going it's going to open everything up for Aaron Rodgers down the field 73.5. The number for Breece Hall rushing plus receiving is 104 and a half against the Niners who are a top five rushing defense last year only 68 yards on the ground as a team. Just 3.6 yards per carry. The largest spread of the weekend is for the Ravens in their home opener back in Baltimore. Eight and a half point number in favor of the flock Joe against the Raiders 41 and a hook is the total is this line of overreaction from how bad the Raiders were last week in Los Angeles? Absolutely it is. There is no way in the world they should be laying this many points here against against this team. Nothing about the Ravens offensively looked smooth and in midseason form in that game. There and I can promise you the defense of the Raiders is going to get is going to get theirs. I'm not buying it. No way. They should be over a touchdown. Favorite The Raiders were coached by Antonio Pierce for nine games as the interim they won five. And against the number they were NFC West Showdown: Cardinals vs. Rams seven one A few divisional duels on the Sunday week two slate that feature teams from the NFC. Let's start in the NFC West and we go to Arizona where the Cardinals will play host to the LA Rams. And this is an intriguing line to me Joe would love your thoughts as well. Arizona home favorite laying a point and a half -120 on the money line. The over under stands at 47 and a hook. Jonathan Gannon became the head coach of the cards last year to begin 2023. This will be his first game leading Arizona as a favorite, an underdog all 18 that they have played under Gannon and covering by the hook despite blowing a two touchdown first half lead against Buffalo last week in Western New York. They're now ten and eight against the spread under Jonathan Gannon. The Rams the underdog here with a total of 47.5. Is the line correct? I know we're kind of splitting hairs here with a couple of sets on the money line, but should Arizona even be the slight home favorite? Yeah, it's a tough spot here for both these teams. Number one we saw although I was impressed. I mean listen McVay is a genius offensively and what he's able to do. The problem with that Rams game. When you consider the fact that the Rams on the road against Detroit last week, lost a couple of more members of the offensive line and were having to go makeshift, and they still took that game to overtime against that offense, against Detroit tells me that, yeah, they they are going to figure some things out. They can never be counted out, and that defense of, of Arizona is going to be a work in progress. It's very young. They spent draft assets on stocking up on that side of the ball. It's going to take them a little while. But this does feel like a Rams team on the road. That is going to figure out ways to win games. They probably shouldn't. And I think this is going to be one of them. It's going to be really interesting because there's a couple of injury things that I believe lead us to Arizona being a slight favorite, mainly the offensive line for LA. But of course we'll talk Puka Nacua, who is not expected to be back for Los Angeles for a few weeks. But you also look at the offensive line, Joe Nooteboom, Rob Havenstein and even their right guard missing in practice. That's Kevin Dotson. That's a veryy makeshift offensive line for the Rams that entered the season banged up and left Sunday night in the Motor City. Even more injured. I still think, though, Sean McVay with a week to prepare for that, will figure things out for Los Angeles. We'll get to our pick six in our number three. But I like looking at LA as an underdog. Despite not a great track record of winning games outright as a dog under Sean McVay, what do we do with this game? Ranieri also a point and a half spread. Also -120 on the money line. The total down by about five points 42 and a hook Sunday afternoon NFC East Battle: Commanders vs. Giants in Washington. It's Jayden Daniel's home debut for the commanders against the New York Giants. Everything in my corps says Washington is winning this game outright. And if I only got to lay a point and a half or just -120 of juice on that money line, give me the commanders each and every time. But it feels a little bit tricky to me at this moment. What do you make of the divisional duel of these NFC East foes? Yeah, it's giants for me, and it's giants, all day long there. Listen, anybody who watched that game last week, Kliff Kingsbury did not take the, the reins off of Jayden Daniels. Everything he was throwing Ben. I mean, there were no downfield shots. I think only 12.5% of his pass attempts actually reached ten or more yards. Everything was about the running backs and the running game and trying to get some yardage that way there, yeah. No, the running backs were their leading receivers. I do think the Giants defense will have more luck against this rookie quarterback here than they did last week. I think everyone's looking towards Washington. I think there's going to be some growing pains there. And I do think Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones will have some success moving the ball with Malik Nabers in this one, yeah it's Giants or pass for me in this one. Yeah. That's. Listen I'm not going to bet on the New York Giants I think at any time this year. But I don't know if I'm betting Washington laying minus 120 on that money line. You look at the final box score for Jayden Daniels 88 yards on the ground, two rushing scores. Maybe looking at his rushing yards. Prop would be where I go. 17 of 20 for Buck 84. Actually had the best passing performance out of the three rookie quarterbacks that started week number one. But a ton of those 184 yards. By my quick math, at least 70 came on the final touchdown drive, or at least 60 on that final touchdown drive to end o Welcome back to a Football College Football Spotlight: Boston College vs. Missouri Friday Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid. We'll look at the start of week number two Thursday night in Miami. We'll also set the stage for the rest of the week. Two Sunday slate around the NFL. We do so with a regular and a constant here on a football Friday that signifies a football Friday on the early line. Mike Blewett I am Ben Stevens Joe Ranieri over on the left side as well or right side of your screen? My left. But before we dive into the National Football League and everything we need to discuss, we start with a little college football question. My friend, because your Boston College Eagles are involved in the only ranked versus ranked top 25 tilt on the entirety of the Saturday Week three slate in college football. Just as we all expected, Missouri and BC are only ranked matchup in Columbia. The Tigers, a 16 .5. home favorite, total 53 in a hook, blew it in a ranked versus ranked matchup. Your BC Eagles the lid on seems a little bit disrespectful to have a three score spread. Ben I'm happy for everybody to keep doubting those Eagles, obviously they're off to a good start. Missouri off to an incredible start against Missouri State in Buffalo. They have yet to allow a point I think we'll break that streak. We won't be scoreless. And I just think the Bill O'Brien edition clearly has made such a massive difference. I think all three of us know that coaching and college football is tantamount to being able to transform your program, and he has done that in a couple of short weeks. They have a long way to go in order to be able to produce offensively consistently, but they've done a great job defensively and they've taken care of business against an inferior opponent, against a Florida State team. That's probably not what we thought it was. Definitely not what anybody thought they were there. But you got to love Bill O'Brien. He's got. Listen, the hardest part about a NFL guy coming to college ranks is getting the kids to buy in. And the results have been there early. So I do think it's going to be a fun year to keep an eye on what BC can do. It was not fun for Miami Dolphins fans last night. Blew it. In fact, it was a nightmare unfolding in front of them there with the injury to two and the concussion. What were your takeaways there? What did you see last night? So I don't want to be critical of Tua in any way. I'm just surprised he didn't slide. I think we've we've all been concerned about this for the last year or more. And I think it has the opportunity to totally transform the path that the Miami Dolphins are going down, there's no guarantee that Tua can come back anytime soon. If ever. So, Mike McDaniel just got that extension a couple of weeks ago, and you have to wonder what his path forward will be. I'm not suggesting that he's on a hot seat of any kind, but I listened to you earlier in the show, and I think you nailed a lot of the things Buffalo is really utilizing Josh Allen in the in the best ways that he can. We don't know if that's a great long term plan, because as you try to do this over the course of four months, it doesn't matter the size or the speed or the ability of the quarterbacks, if they're taking hits all the time, it's going to wear them down. I thought it was interesting to see Khalil Shakir take a step forward in the offense. They really only guys obviously had to run their offense in the first half. So what we saw in the second half was really running clock, especially after he was injured. So, yeah, good news early for the bills. I have still questions about what they can do defensively. Good to see them get the turnovers last night, even though a couple of them were fluky. Yeah absolutely blew. And when you look at this AFC East Analysis: Bills and Dolphins game of course there's a lot that will be said for the Dolphins in the coming days. What the future is of Tua Tagovailoa. We're not going to project that out at this moment. But there's the good of what Buffalo did and in the opening half with everybody healthy, the bills were dominant. And when you look at the A, F C East divisional odds now in the overall outlook for both teams, of course Miami's odds have been altered by the uncertainty around Tua Tagovailoa. So our focus is on the bills plus 105 to win the A F C East. The shortest price we have seen on Buffalo at any point since the odds became available to win the A, F C or a Lombardi Trophy 6 to 1, 11 to 1, respectively. Blue. It's a new look Buffalo team really on both sides of the football. And there were some questions for the bills to be answered throughout 2024. But they're booked as the favorites to win the A, F C East. Now for what would be a fifth consecutive season. Does it feel fitting to have Buffalo as the AFC East favorites right here, right now? It's pretty shor. We're clearly what happened last night is impacting the odds quite a bit. But you have to understand we're going to find out a lot more about the bills in the next month. We've got Jags at Ravens, at Texans, at Jets. That's the next month for the bills. So congrats on the win. Going down to Miami and getting it. And in week one coming back and getting the victory over the Cardinals. But this next month is going to be could be vastly different from what they saw in the first two weeks. The Cardinals are a team that are being built and Miami is obviously a team that's currently in disarray. So assuming that the Ravens and the Texans and the Jets are, and the Jaguars are who we think they can be over the course of the next month, this bills competition could be brutal. And if they came out of it 1 in 3 it wouldn't stun anybody. I don't think listening or or talking about it right now, this is going to get a lot harder for them. And I think the defense is going to have to be the side that shows me more. Allen and James Cook and getting Shakir and Kincaid involved is a good thing. We'll see more of that. But the defense is going to have to be the one that brings it to the table. They've lost way too many players for us to assume that they're going to be the bills that they were a year or two ago. Gotta love the overreaction and week two here in the NFL. And one of Prime Time Matchup: Bengals vs. Chiefs the games Ben and I talked about earlier, the marquee matchup that will be in the late slate of games, is Cincinnati traveling to Kansas City this line opened up six and a half almost a touchdown in fact, but now looks like the market influencers aren't quite sold that this Bengals team is going to get run over. And why would they they tend not to against Mahomes here. What do you think of this matchup. So I think there is clearly people reacted quite a bit to that being a big line. These teams have played each other tight in the past. I would say though, I think this is the this could be the fourth time in the last six years that the Bengals start off zero and two. So Zach Taylor is bringing a lot of these zero and two starts to the table before they turn things around. I'd say Cincinnati played as bad as any team did last week. It looked like they were still in preseason mode. I will say that the angle I like in this game, because of the way that these two teams have played each other and tend to play week over week, is the second half under th. The Kansas City Chiefs last season were the lowest scoring second half defense, and Cincinnati was a top ten scoring defense in the second half. We see Lou Anarumo, their defensive coordinator, and Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs defensive coordinator coordinator, really locked things down games. So at 23.5 that's too high for me. That's the number that I'm most in favor of in this game. And Isaiah Pacheco I think establishing his rushing attack his his number is inflated quite a bit over the last few days. So make sure number. But I Sunday Night Football: Texans vs. Bears would take anything over 63.5. Cincy now the sixth best price to win the A, F C championship at 10 to 1. Some market regression, understandably so. Losing the season opener at home booked is more than a touchdown favorite against New England. The Chiefs plus 290 to win the A f c still two AFC contenders. At least that is the thought right now. Quickly here on Sunday night Football in Houston, the Texans lay near a touchdown at home against Caleb Williams and Chicago total 45.5. What's your play for Sunday night. Interesting one I'm going to take I'm going to stick with a prime time under. We've hit a couple here in a row I think that we need to see more of the bears offense. They got the win. Congrats to Caleb. Caleb wasn't particularly good for a couple of defensive and special teams touchdowns, so they didn't really put much up. And I like the Texans to control this game and keep it under. I don't see an explosive matchup at all on Sunday night until we see more out of the bears. Houston now has the expectations and as the favorite side under C.J. Stroud, including last week in the opener in Indy, just three and six against the number as Let's continue diving through the Sunday slate on this Football Friday with our very own Mike Blewett. A couple of questionable quarterbacks now have answers to make on Sunday. Jaguars vs. Browns: Off-Field Issues and On-Field Struggles Let's start blue in Jacksonville at Trevor Bank Stadium. The Jags home opener against the Cleveland Browns. Now there are some off the field issues once again with Deshaun Watson another sexual assault accuser of Watson came forward this week. She is set to meet with the National Football League as he has maintained Watson denies any wrongdoing. As for the football perspective, Deshaun Watson has been absolutely abysmal in the 12 games he has played as Cleveland's starting quarterback. His poor performance, of course, could not happen to a worse guy. So we take all of this to Jacksonville. The Jags a three point home favorite. Trevor Lawrence was great in the opening half for Jacksonville. They were blanked last week on the road in Miami 41 in a hook is the total. The Jags a three point favorite blue. What do you like in this matchup. I think has the potential to be pretty ugly. I'm leaning towards an under again here. The Browns is Watson is clearly going to be the story week in week out for them. And they bring a lot to the table defensively at times. But they're also working with an offensive line that is not what they need it to be right now. They got a couple of guys on IR that they're hoping to come back and contribute, but without Nick Chubb, they're a subpar offensive line, a clearly a subpar quarterback. I don't know what you can expect out of them. I think you're going to start looking at team totals as well for the Browns and for the Jets team. Total for the Browns this week, 19.5. So it's indicative of how folks really are not respecting them. I don't think the Browns can get to 20 points this week. So general in general I like the Jags laying three, but I'm more partial to an under or a Browns team under in this Steelers on the Road: Facing the Broncos one. So here we go again with your Steelers and a road under like we had again last week. Now back on the road mile high taking on Bo Nix who listen I thought I thought was pretty decent in that debut. Even though he did have some turnovers in that one. But what it just feels like oh look it's Tomlin on the road. Another under begging you to take the over right. Begging you to take the over at 33.5. And I'll tell you Joe and I watched every second of that game together. We were never getting a 30 in Atlanta. Never. They could have played two more quarters. Maybe Boswell would have put through another field goal. Maybe But, the Steelers offense again wasn't pretty. Nothing in the red zone for them. Fields executed some big third down plays, but when they needed some first downs to consistently get the offense going, they couldn't. On the flip side, the defense was awesome. And that was against Kirk Cousins and an offensive line, both of whom, we'd say on paper are better than the Broncos offensive line and Bo Nix. So I think Bo Nix is going to have a tough time. Again. We can look at a team total under for the Broncos. I don't think this gets to 37 points, I'd be surprised. One thing to note is that you will consistently see Najee Harris get a lot of carries this season, and certainly right now, and I just think that needs to be a part of your approach to games with the Steelers. I don't think they're going to air it out too much. I've thought for months that it's going to be a conservative game plan, regardless of who's under center, and Najee is going to get a lot of touches. So you can look for, you know, rush attempts, rushing yardage overs for Najee Harris is an interesting trend to keep in mind. Bo Nix, in his debut last week against the Twelves in Seattle, 26 of 42 138 yards, did not have a touchdown pass, but two interceptions did have a rushing score to make it a single digit game and give a little bit of life to Denver in the fourth quarter. But when the announcer calling the game Adam Archuleta for CBS, he's the quarterback. Throw the football and before the ball is even in the hands of either a receiver or a DB and goes, oh no, it's not necessarily the best thing. Now, I did bet Bo Nix his season long rookie passing prop at 2850 and a hook to the over. Not a great start for me. Neither is his prop on Sunday. One 66.5 against Packers vs. Colts: Quarterback Challenges Pittsburgh. What is interesting in this matchup, of course, is the quarterbacks on the other side for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin telling reporters earlier this week they are slated to start Justin Fields for a second consecutive week. No props out just yet, though, for Pittsburgh, either in passing yards or any other categories. We know how good the Steelers have been under Tomlin as an underdog, even in the last season. Plus, since the start of 2023, Pittsburgh seven and five, both straight up and against the number as an underdog, including the outright victory in Atlanta as a favorite last season. Four and three against the spread. This to me blue is one of the most compelling spots on the board for Sunday in Lambeau, the Packers home debut for a team that entered the year with a ton of optimism. How has that changed with Jordan Love on the shelf not placed on injured reserve, which is positive but not expected to play? Of course, on Sunday against the Colts, Indianapolis three point road favorite as Malik Willis gets the start for green Bay. How do you see this football matchup playing out in Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon? I will say him not being on the IR is also maybe indicative of their level of desperation, right? They they don't have great options to go to. And I think they in some ways it could be it. I don't think the Packers are a panicky organization, but I think it's indicative of when we hear that he's out 3 to 4 weeks, they're like, maybe let's not put him on IR yet. Look, when you've given the guy $250 million and you need him, you shouldn't be able to sit him out for four weeks and be able to move forward. So I'm a little concerned about how desperate they may become to force him back into the action. Now that Colts Texans game was awesome, I really thought that was the best game last week, and I thought the Colts proved a lot, even though they were at home and they take an L that's against a really spirited Texas Texans team that has a lot of offense to bring to the table. So I'm impressed with the Colts. I do give them the chance to go on the road and get the upset here. Great weapons for the Packers, but when have we seen Malik Willis be able to do anything? It's going to have to be the Aaron Jones. The, Josh Jacobs show. And I don't know that they can do it. I like the Colts in this one. 67.5 is the passing yards. Prop for Malik Willis. He has made three career starts If Mike Blewett is here it means it's a football Friday and it means we break down every single matchup around the weekend and Sunday slate in the NFL. Let's Patriots vs. Seahawks: Defensive Strategies talk some interconference intrigue for the games that we have on Sunday. No more surprising victory weekend number one than the Patriots winning outright as a 7.5. dog in Cincinnati against the Bengals. If you bet the over of New England's win total at four and a half the lowest entering the season, that was one you did not expect to get you to at least five, so you might be feeling pretty good if you even had the stones to bet the over for new England. Seattle pretty good at home against Bo Nix and the Broncos in his debut. They cover as a five and a half point favorite, winning by six. But the final score wasn't truly indicative of how in control Seattle was of that football game, especially in the second half. The Seahawks, a three and a half point favorite on the road in Gillette Stadium against the Patriots on Sunday afternoon, second lowest total of the weekend at 38.5. What do you like? Can the Pats start two and zero, or at least cover a number for a second straight week? I think entirely possible. We I don't think they're hiding their game plan at all. It's very straightforward. The Bengals ran 48 plays, and that's because the Pats were taking the air out of the ball. They had an 8.5 minute touchdown drive. The Pats only ran 63 plays. It's not like they set the world on fire offensively, but that's what they're going to try to do. They are far better defensively than they are offensively. Credit to Brissett for managing the game that way. But Rhamondre Stevenson getting tons of touches is what you're going to see week in week out this year. Again I'm leaning towards an under but not all these games can go under. I happen to think it's going to be a low scoring week in the NFL. And I think you start to again look at team total right now based on the way the Seahawkwks played. m inclined to say take the three and a half. However, I do think it's important early in the season to note that we are still getting some value on teams based on early season results. We talked about how the bills are just getting a huge credit for the win. The two wins thus far, which are good wins, but not we're not impressed with them handling their business. Against a Miami team in disarray and a Cardinals team that has a long way to go. I just think that there's too much influence with early season results, and you have to wonder if the Seahawks and the Pats played 3 or 4 weeks from now, would this really be a three and a half point line if the Seahawks ripped off a couple of wins and we see what the Pats are really going through offensively? I think you might be getting some value here on the Panthers vs. Chargers: Battle of the Struggling Teams Seahawks, even though they are a road favorite. The game that everyone's going to be looking at, without a doubt here, Blewett has got to be the battle of terrible versus terrible. Although listen, Carolina can't be as bad as they looked, right? I say it all the time. It feels like every week with you, right? It can't get worse, right? It can't get any worse. Well, taking on the Chargers how much worse could it get here? Blewett They stink. I we could talk about the disappointing performances by the Bengals and everybody. There's no question that the team that played the worst football is the Panthers. I will say the Giants gave him a run for their money. But the Panthers were awful. They were down 30 to nothing at halftime. I have played made plays in this game. I took the Chargers team total over in the first half. It's only ten and a half and their first quarter total is only four and a half. You can take all the rushing prop attempts that you want. I think they're going to try to run it down their throat like they did last week. Jo, you and I hit the JK Dobbins over prop last week. He's they said he's going to ride the hot hand, but it's clear that Dobbins is getting a chance. Derrick Brown, the Panthers best defender, is out for the season. So what are they going to do? I have no idea what they're trying to do defensively here. I think this is all Chargers. I don't think it's going to be fancy. But I think they're going to run it down their throats and I look for those team total overs for the Chargers, particularly in the first half as they are establishing the run. And the Panthers try to figure out how to live without Derrick Brown. And I will. And as I will share in our pick six, I still think Jake Dobbins number is slightly light this week against Carolina Blue. You mentioned Rhamondre Stevenson getting a ton of touches for New England. That being the game plan, 25 carries a buck 20 against Cincy and a touchdown. His attempts prop still 16.5 Bryce Young to start off his sophomore season 13 of 30 for a buck 61 and two INTs. The guy that's thrown for more than 250 yards once in his NFL career. He has been under 200 in 9 of the last ten games. Mike