NCAAF Best Bets: College Football Week 1 Predictions

Introduction to College Football Friday It is a football Friday or probably better stated, a college football Friday live right here on the early line on Sports grid. We welcome you to our number two here across the Spears Grizz network. He is doctors I am B double S. That's Donny right side and Ben Stevens a Preview of Upcoming College Football Games huge second hour in store where our focus for all 60 minutes is on college football in week number one. Six more games tonight following 21 yesterday on a Thursday evening, 67 comes your way tomorrow a marquee matchup in Las Vegas on Sunday, a top 25 tilt between USC and LSU, and even a game on Labor Day Monday. The debut of Bob for Boston College. That's Bill O'Brien now as the head coach of the Eagles. And can Florida State rectify its season now back here stateside at home says it is going to be a glorious hour. I am juiced up and excited for a college football Friday here in our number two. You better be because you're going to be sweating carrying this entire show for the next hour with unbelievable angles, talent and also information that we desperately need on this Football Friday because you know, your boy doctors like I enjoyed myself last nightt putting in the work over the summer on college football to start week number one. Not maybe the best use of my time, but I know what I'm talking about at least I think I do. But B double S is the true superstar of this next hour. Let's get this man a raise here. He's ready to get put to work. What do you mean, doctors? I thought you had the preseason magazine cued up and ready to go for moments like this. When I look, we're going to do it. Like when you say like a team, like they're going to be like Notre Dame. I'm going to flip through it and be like Notre Dame. Oh, look at that. Oh, Riley Leonard's there. There you go. Love the city. Yeah a huge matchup for the Irish tomorrow on the road in College Station taking on 20th ranked Texas A and M Riley Leonard now the quarterback for the Fighting Irish against his former head coach Mike Elko. The two spent the past two seasons together in Durham North Carolina at Duke. We will get you set for the Saturday slate. We will look at the Friday night games that we have and all the marquee matchups in store, but we start here in these first half an hour of this College Football 2024 Season Pick Six second hour with a college football 2024 season pick six. Here are the six categories for this new era of CFB. Our national championship prediction A Heisman winner to keep an eye on is Donny right side a prisoner of the moment. A group of five playoff team that can win one of those leagues and earn one of the automatic bids to a college football Playoff, a win total. We like to the over a win total. We like to stay National Championship Predictions under and a conference championship pick to keep an eye on as well. All right Mister, preseason magazine, let's start with your national title prediction. Georgia Oh, Georgia. And here's the reason why I like Georgia. You saw last year. And there's a stark contrast. And you know how I always going to work this in Florida State last year had a chance to prove that they were upset about being left out of the National championship picture. They took their program in a completely different direction. Georgia, in the most heartbreaking loss you can have, losing to your rival in the SEC Championship game got left out of the College Football Playoff. Then they didn't p. They absolutely put it on Florida State in that bowl game. They had nothing to play for, so they went in with all that momentum and the great recruiting classes and bringing back your starting quarterback from last year, what's not to love to like about the Georgia Bulldogs and also keep remember last year when we only had four teams that got into the national playoff and you saw Georgia should have been one of those teams. If we had been a 12 team playoff last year, you know who probably wins the national championship. For me, the Georgia Bulldogs, I think they're going to be on a mission this year. And they have the extra ammunition knowing that if they lose one football game, they're still going to be playing for a national championship. I love the Georgia Bulldogs. I love the pedigree. Kirby Smart is one of my favorite coaches because in those times where you have to rally your troops in a meaningless football game, he was able to do that. That shows me a lot. They're on the path once again to a national championship game this year. I believe that, Donnie. I think it's really hard to argue. I believe Georgia is going to win the SEC. I believe UGA is going to be in the College Football Playoff. It's a -520 price to reach that destination. It's actually the second best number behind Ohio State, who I'll talk about in just a moment. The bucks -650. But Donnie spot on in the assessment around Kirby Smart's dogs. We were so mad, at least some of us about Florida State being the first of 15 undefeated Power Five conference champions in the ten year history of the College Football Playoff, to be left out of the field that we kind of overlooked Georgia missing the crop as well. It was hard to make an argument for UGA just based on resume and not eye test. And talent because of all of the capable teams that we had in the field. A season ago. But Georgia has lost one football game in its last 30. Georgia has lost two football games in its last 48. Dating back to its final four of the 2020 college football season, and both of those football games against Alabama in an SEC Championship game. And in that span, Georgia has won two national championships. One of my favorite things about this UGA team is expecting a better defense than we even saw last year. Better? What are you talking about? They were still a top ten scoring defensive unit in the country. Yes, but they had regressed at least up front in defending the run. I expect a lot of good things out of this Georgia front this year. Michael Williams Smael Mondon is back as well. And some great guys in the back end led by Malachi Starks, who might be one of the best DBS and safeties in all of college football. But my favorite thing, Donnie, is flipping the narrative on this Georgia team. When they won two consecutive matches. It wasn't Stetson Bennett in the offense, it was that elite defense. Some of the best units we have seen in the last two decades, plus in college football this year, I think it actually starts offensively for Georgia, led by Carson Beck, who has the second best Heisman Trophy price and had the third most passing yards last year in college football, more than 3900. Georgia was a top five total in scoring offense, nearly averaging 42 points per game a season ago. The offense is really good in Athens this year, and the defense, I think, gets back to an elite level. I would not be shocked to see a rematch of the College Football Playoff semifinal from 2022, in this year's national championship game, Georgia and Ohio State, the Buckeyes are my pick to win a national championship at a 4 to 1 number. So Donny and I going slightly chalk with the favorites and then mine the second best price in Ohio State. But the Buckeyes saw Michigan win a national championship a season ago and said never again. Over my dead body. They have seen Michigan dominate not only them, but the Big Ten the last three years, and they e invested in bringing everybody back and everybody in the transfer quarterback from Kansas State, Will Howard Quinshon Judkins, the running back from Ole Miss, joins Treveyon Henderson in the backfield. A stout offensive line for Ryan Day and great wide receivers on the outside. Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate is back and Jeremiah Smith will talk some freshman a little bit later on in our three. Might be one of the best wide receivers or freshman in the country. And defensively, there's not much better around the nation than Ohio State. Second best scoring defense in the country last yea, allowing only 11 points per game. Jim Knowles's unit is stacked. J.T. Tuimoloau you have Jack Sawyer back as well up front. Tyreek Smith anchors the unit on the inside. And then let's go to the secondary. Caleb Downs the SEC freshman of the year last year at Alabama. Now in Columbus Denzel Burke maybe the best corner in college football returned as well Donny it is national championship or bust for Ohio State. Those are the expectations in Columbus fair or unfair. That is what is necessary in 2024. I think the Buckeyes make good. Yeah. You know it's a good point about it too is sometimes you're going to look at that Big ten comingn to that one game against Oregon here. But the best part about that is even if you are breaking in your quarterback, say you haven't played in a big game yet at this university and you lose that, you can still make the College Football Playoff learn from that game and move on. This is what makes it so intriguing when you're picking a national champion. We're not necessarily looking at the schedule so much anymore, but just looking at the quality of the t Heisman Trophy Contenders A guy has his preseason college football magazines, watches one game to kick off week number one, and all of a sudden thinks he knows who's going to strike the pose as a Heisman Trophy winner in early December. As we continue our college football pick six for the 2024 campaign doctors, we go from the national title winners to a Heisman Trophy winner who's your selection, by the way? Real quick on this, how we're setting these up. Like I was going to play the heel today, Ben and say my pick six was natl champion. Miami Heisman winner cam Ward. Playoff team Miami wi. Total over Miami. Win. Total under Florida State and conference champion Miami. Like we could have played it out that way and it would have been like, you know what? This guy's on his game. He knows exactly about these football teams. So follows a correlated path. All of those things would have added up together if it were to happen. So not the craziest thing you've ever said. Let me round robin. It would have been tremendous. But yeah, we are not a regional show. So we're not going to keep this down in South Beach here. We got to spread our wings. But watching last night was phenomenal and sort of laying out the game plan ofw you can win a Heisman. I told you, like typically it's going to be a quarterback because they're gonna have their Heisman moments on a good football team, make big plays and big situations. You're going to get the bump there. But statistics from the running back position and the wide receiver position usually leave out how good your football team is. So yes, you would love the extra bump if you were a wide receiver at Alabama like Devonta Smith killing it out there on a national championship caliber team. Sure. But if you're not going to have that, why not have a school that's in a conference notorious for not playing a lot of defense? You already don't have a great defense, which means you are going to throw with your top flight quarterback routinely 35 to 45 times in a game, and you just might be the best wide receiver in football now. Also, Ben, when I talk about, let's just say the MVP award, the extracurriculars, the Cy Young Award, the same thing like Paul Skenes. Hey, you know what? If Skenes was the lynchpin for the Pittsburgh Pirates, bringing him up to the majors and surging towards the playoffs? People are going to look at that like, you know what his era is up there with? You know, Zach Wheeler's and it's up there with Chris Sales. But boy he was the catalyst for them winning. You might get an extra couple votes that way. Well when you take a look here from a college football team, it works that way in the actual quarterback position if you're winning. But from a wide receiver wins and losses aren't measured on you here. And also the extracurriculars for Travis Hunter are. He plays two positions and plays them all game. And he's not just filler like, hey, the guy plays on special teams and he's a wideout. Well that's interesting. Like, no, he might play 100 plus snaps every single football game between offense and defense this year. So the extracurriculars go in his direction. And yes, you might be watching it based off of yesterday saying like, boy, you're getting really excited about one player. It's not as if this guy just showed up like, wow, never seen him before. He was awesome last year and it looks like Ben, he's even better this year. Since 2000, 19 of the 23 Heisman Trophy winners have played the quarterback position in the College Football Playoff era, eight of the ten. If you are going to be a non QB in, legitimately be in the Heisman Trophy race all season long, you have to be Travis Hunter. The best two way player in college football, nearing 125 snaps. No official snap count as of yet, but about 125 last night. Seven grabs, 132 yards, three receiving touchdowns. My only worry doctors is Colorado as a team. The entire way. If they're going to be a 5 or 6 win, football team and not really in College Football Playoff contention, or making a run to a big 12 championship game, does it lose a little bit of its luster despite the star power out in Boulder? But there is no doubt the star power is there for see you sure. Shaw Sanders and Travis Hunter, both at 25 to 1 following last night's victory over North Dakota State. My Heisman Trophy winner to keep an eye on. That's Jalen Milroe, the quarterback for Alabama at 14 to 1. I believe in Kalen DeBoer fully. And if you have some questions about taking over for Nick Saban, a very large shoes to fill in terms of the program in terms of developing quarterbacks. No. Look at Michael Penix Jr at Indiana and Washington. Look at Jake Haner under the board at Fresno State. And then look at Milroe a season ago only throwing for 250 yards, three times. But potentially in Alabama's toughest games outside of the SEC title against Texas, Texas A&M and Auburn also ran for more than 530 yards and 12 rushing scores. And Donny, as you well know when it comes to the rushing yards for a quarterback in college football, sacks are a negative. It takes away from your rushing yardage output, and Alabama gave up 49 sacks last year. It was a concern for Nick Saban all season long. It's going to get better under Kalen DeBoer. He brought some talent over from U-dub. Tyler Booker, one of the best guards in the sport, is back for Bama as well because of who his offensive mind now is. Kalen DeBoer and because of what Jalen Milroe possesses. Back for another year as a starting quarterback. Keep an eye on the signal caller for the Crimson Tide at a 14 to 1 price to win a Heisman Trophy. It's crazy. As we look at Alabama this year, we know they're high rated, but it almost feels like Alabama is in like the sleeper category since Nick Saban isn't there. As if this college football team would fall off the planet right away. DeBoer is a great offensive mind and certainly going to help Jalen Milroe out. I expect big things out of Alabama and that means big football games chances for a lot of Heisman moments. Maybe the biggest moment in Jalen Milroe career is when Kevin Walsh and Joe Lisi were watching the National College Football Playoff. It's on tape. It's recorded and chased. Out of the room was Kevin Walsh by a screaming Milroe Milroe milroe. Maybe this year he actually gets over the top. He's capable and he could do it. And I expect big things from him and Alabama this year. He certainly is. The rest we got to fly around. Let's go to our group of five playoff Group of Five Playoff Teams teams before we hit the break. And then we'll give you win totals on the other side. Who is that G five team you think can make the college football Playoff app state Boone, North Carolina one of the best atmospheres you'll find in G five football out here. Even though I don't think G five teams should be included in the College Football Playoff, they will be there will be a player Joey Aguilar, very good season last year returning back. And just like we're talking about Ohio State, how about nine starters back on the defense for App State. There will be a player this year and I think they can win the sun Belt. Joey Aguilar one of the top ten quarterbacks last year in college football seventh most passing yards 3757 33 touchdowns to only ten interceptions I think Boise State is going to win the Mountain West once again. They're a minus one 45 favorite to win that conference crown. And of course, as you are trying to lock up one of the five bids automatically that go to the five highest ranked conference champions in college football. If Boise State can be high enough ranked in front of others, which I believe the Broncos will have the opportunity to do a 4 to 1 price to reach the college football Playoff makes a lot of sense to me. Win Totals and Conference Championship Picks With a win total over a win total under and a conference championship bet to round out our pick six entering the 2024 college football campaign that started last week with week zero 21 games to officially kick off week one last night at the FBS level. So we get you set for the first full weekend of this season. Win total over. Win. Total under fire through doctors. Yeah, keep it simple in the SEC. At this point we just talked about I should say you talked about quite a bit the expectations for Alabama certainly high this season. As if they fell off just because Nick Saban left. Yes. Nick Saban may be the best college football coach of all time, but Kalen DeBoer, no slouch, did wonderful things out there with Washington going to bring that high flying offense with Jalen Milroe. The ability to lose a game or two in the SEC, I'm going to go over nine and a half wins for the Alabama Crimson Tide and my win total under is on Florida at four and a half. I love this just from a handicapping perspective. If you're not really in tune with college football going over the day to day scheduling, you'd say to yourself, that's ridiculous. It has to be an error, but it's not. If you look at Florida's schedule this year, are the expectations high for them talent wise? Not necessarily. Coupled with that SEC schedule, can you like in my four wins for a Florida football team, I'm going under. That number is so outrageous. There has to be something to it. And what's to it? It's that schedule they have. And the thing I love about it is game number one, you're going to know a lot about Florida if they lose to Miami. That four and a half. Absolutely. In play. And I think they lose this weekend. The last time that Florida only won four games in a season was 2017. And that was the last of Jim McElwain in Gainesville. Nobody has a more difficult schedule this year than UF, and it starts on Saturday, albeit at home as an underdog against Miami. The Gators play eight preseason ranked top 25 teams, and I dare you to go look at the final five for UCF. That starts with the cocktail party against Georgia and gets no easier in the month of November. This is the first win total that I bet way back early in the off season, where the juice at the time to the over was minus 110. It's now -200 on the FanDuel sports book. I'm surprised it's not eight and a half with some juice on the under. That's in Ames, Iowa. Over seven and a half for Iowa State. They return the most returning production at 79% of their or excuse me, 85% of their production from a year ago in all of FBS college football, including a quarterback who earned his experience last year in Rocco Beck, his top playmakers on the outside in the entirety of his offensive line. Defensively, they're going to be great once again under Matt Campbell, they were a seven win football team in the regular season last year. Doctors ended with six losses, five of the six by ten points or less. Three of the five by just a field goal. So I expect this Iowa State team to win at least eight games this year, maybe even contend for a big 12 title. Oklahoma, who won 14 big 12 titles, 14 of the 28 when they were given out conference championships in that league. Now goes to the SEC and the Sooners have a difficult slate as well. Much like Florida, they end the year with a grueling gantlet. They have the fifth most difficult schedule in all of college football. Here is our final four games at Ole Miss. FCS opponent Maine sandwiched in between at Missouri home against Alabama at LSU in Baton Rouge. I don't think Oklahoma is a bad football team, but seven and a half with an OU defense that needs to keep improving under Brant Venables and a first year starter at quarterback in Jackson, Arnold. Despite the talent that Arnold is Eileen under with just a very difficult slate to start off, their SEC time. I make some sense to Ben because you're looking at that team now and also that fan base by now saying, oh, a great season s eight wins that used to get your coach fired at Oklahoma. So times are changing along with expectations. They're going to have to adjust. All right. Your conference championship pick could have been everything in the pick six. So finish with your canes. It's Miami. It is. And the table has already been set here. You saw Florida State not going to be a player this year in college football. Now you see Clemson is going to take on Georgia week number one. And you're going to see the Miami Hurricanes take on the Florida Gators. You might be looking at Miami of those top three teams. The only team with a victory here to start their season. Maybe the expectations on Florida State even to get dropped by BC coming up on Labor Day. We'll watch that all the way through the Miami Hurricanes and Mario Crystal ball. Rightfully so. Getting back to being the kings of college football, I have my questions about Crystal ball and his game management and coaching style, not the talent for Miami in the schedule is not all that bad. They host Florida State, don't have Clemson or Big 12 Predictions and Weekend Preview NC state. I'll make it quick. Kansas State to win the big 12 because of Avery Johnson. Their Georgia vs. Clemson: A Top 15 Showdown Georgia is on the mind as we start our breakdown and preview of the first full Saturday of the college football season in 2024. That comes your way tomorrow. It's got Donny right side singing in the commercial breaks, and it's got our focus first and foremost. The first of three ranked versus ranked matchups that we have in week number one in Atlanta. Technically a neutral site, but don't tell that to the Clemson backers that are trying to outbid dogs backers to get a ticket to the ATL. It's a top 15 tilt between Georgia and Clemson. The Bulldogs entered the year ranked atop the country in the preseason poll for a second consecutive season. Clemson remains in the top 15 ranked 14th, but Donny, if we can use the spread as an indication of the trajectory of these two programs in the last three years, I do believe it is fitting both started the year against one another in 2021. In Charlotte, week number one kickoff game in prime time. Neutral site Clemson was a three point favorite. Now three years later, neutral site in Atlanta, Georgia is nearly a two touchdown favorite. It was 13.5 Brighton early on this Friday morning. It is 12 in a hook, but nearly 1516 points of line movement from where we were three years ago total at 48 and a hook. Oh, by the way, when they last met back in 2021. In that season debut, Georgia was victorious 10 to 3. And it seems like the same trajectory for Clemson, right? It used to be the days of Trevor Lawrence was fantastic. That offense could move superstars all over the field. Deshaun Watn same thing. I don't get that same respect here to Clemson's offense and also Klubnik coming in expected to be that next level five star recruit that was going to take you to the next level. And we haven't seen that yet out of him. Maybe you see it this year. But to put him in that neutral site, as I want to put it, like air quotes at this point down in SEC territory in the Mercedes-Benz dome, that's not really fair for him at this point, but you're expected to perform like nobody from Clemson. Even Dabo Swinney is going like, hey, you know what, let's go in here and see what we can do. And if we lose, let's just keep it close. We'll be happy. No, Clemson is expected to play for a national championship or be on that level, which means you're going to have to be against that for Georgia. Hear me out on this. I don't understand the line movement, to be honest. 13.5 down to 12.5. If you're looking at the FanDuel sports book right now under betting statistics, percentage of bets on Georgia 75%. Percentage of money 84% on Georgia. And the line is dropping. So you are getting sharp money here coming on Clemson bringing that line down when you typically have that much money, you don't go from 13.5 to 12.5. Then you go from 13.5 to 14.5 to 15 in that range. So that does have my eye. But for me, looking at the season in totality, I just think Georgia is so much better in this spot. And if I look at this game and say, whose offense am I going to trust right out of the gate in a big moment, it's going to be Georgia's. It's not Clemson's here. I look for a two touchdown victory from Georgia, a win and a cover. I guess one of the reasons the line could be working back to Dabo swinney's Tigers is because you see the total of 48 and a hook and a near two touchdown spread for Georgia to cover by 14 plus in this game to stay around that total. That's a lot of scoring from Georgia. And that's not a lot of scoring from Clemson. That three year span from when they met to start 2021 to where we are now at the beginning of 2024. Georgia has won two national championships. They have won 44 of 46 games. They are on a 39 game win streak in the regular season. Meanwhile, Clemson that entered the 2021 campaign winning six consecutive ACC crowns and six berths into the college football Playoff, they have not been back to the CFP. They have one ACC title to show for it, and last year, four conference losses, the most since Dabo Swinney's second full year at the helm of Clemson back in 2010. That is where these two programs are entering this year, and my main focus is not on the defensive side of the football. These two programs, two of five programs around the country that in the last five full seasons have held opponents to less than 20 points per game on average, all five years. Clemson Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State those are the five good defenses. It's the Tigers offense, less than 30 points per game. Last season, and in the past three years, they have not ranked inside the top three in terms of the ACC in scoring offense in those six years from 2015 to 2026. Straight conference grounds, six straight College Football Playoff bids, two national championships in 2016 and 2018. Of course, they were ranked inside the top three all three seasons. Eileen Georgia in this football game and I would keep an eye on Carson Beck's number again. I think you start the conversation this year with Georgia offensively knowing the defense is going to be stout once again. So that's one of the three top 25 ranked versus ranked matchups that we have. Now. Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame: Prime Time Clash We go prime time in College Station at Kyle Field. One of the great environments in college football. It's a top 20 tilt 20th ranked Texas A and M seventh ranked Notre Dame. The Aggies, now a two and a half point home favorite under a field goal, but Notre Dame opened early in the summer as a slight money line favorite in College Station. Mike Elko's debut as the head man in College Station. Former Duke coach the past two years spent four years under Jimbo Fisher as Texas A&M defensive coordinator. He reunites in his first game at A&M against his former quarterback at Duke. Riley Leonard, who's now the QB for Notre Dame, confused? That's college football in 2024 certainly is. So you know the strengths and the weaknesses right off the bat. Now can you play into that a little bit too much. Maybe that quarterback does make some changes by going o Notre Dame. We're going to find out. But also what do we like. We just talked about a top 20 tilt with Clemson and Georgia. Fantastic. Love to see it right off the bat without any cupcake scheduling to start the season. You're getting the same thing here with Notre Dame and Texas A and M. And also we talked about that Clemson Georgia game. Technically it is on a neutral site. So you're not going to get that home field advantage. You're going to get one of the best home field advantages in college football. Down in College Station. They're going to be ready for Notre Dame. That atmosphere is going to be great. Their quarterback is coming back to the fold. But it's sort of a I won't say a tough concept for me because I don't know what I'm getting out of Mike Elko in that football team right off the bat. I do know that Notre Dame is going to be prepared to come in, but the question marks also bring up what's Riley Leonard going to bring to the table you saw last year? They did the same thing bringing Sam Hartman over more of a passer. Riley Leonard more of a dual threat, which I do think Ben really helps you out early in the season, because the one thing we saw from Duke that wasn't great skill positions that were wrapped around him, and he made a lot of things happen in big moments, which we're expecting the same thing. But I will give the advantage to Texas A and M, and at the FanDuel Sports Book today, if we're looking at those betting statistics, 57% of the bets coming in on Notre Dame right now, we'll see where that line winds up by game time. I wonder if it gets to three. I wonder as well, 46.5. Is the total two really good defenses squaring off under Marcus Freeman Notre Dame in the past two seasons has seen defensive year over year improvement. That's the first matchup I look at Connor Weigman back for Texas A and M, only four games last year before an injury in the fourth game ended his season. There's a lot of high hopes about what Weigman can do in this offense at A&M, but Notre Dame, a season ago, fourth best passing defense in the country, only giving up just under 175 yards per game. Eighth best scoring defense as well 16.6 points per game under Elko as a defensive coordinator, A&M had the third best scoring defense in his final year in college Station before he departed to Duke. They allowed less than 16 points per game. Riley Leonard last year only four fully healthy games for his former skipper in Mike Elko. But against the three Power Four teams, including the upset against Clemson, he only threw for a touchdown and an interception. Not a ton of passing stats, less than 200 yards in all three of those games against power conference foes, but at least 88 yards on the ground. Three touchdowns in total in those three games. A dynamic athlete at the quarterback spot, we'll see Miami vs. Florida: Sunshine State Rivalry how it plays out for Notre Dame. To start off 2024. We go to the Florida face off on the other side of the break. Will Donnie's Hurricanes start the year with a big victory in the Sunshine State against in-state foe Florida? Or will we have questions about the canes under Mario Cristobal to begin I've got an idea on what side missed the right side. Donnie will be on for the Florida face off midway through the Saturday slate. Tomorrow in the swamp, a great game, a compelling game that will come with Swift reactions and many narrative takeaway. Miami a top 20 team, 19th in the country entering 2024 with high expectations in South Florida. Its year three under Mario Cristobal. The canes, just 12 and 13 in his first two years. But he played at Miami. He knows what it means to bring Miami to the National pantheon. Will it get done this year? The hurricanes, a two and a half point road favorite in Gainesville. The fearsome swamp, maybe not so more so, so much anymore against UF. The over under $54.5 can Miami cover as less than a field goal favorite against Florida? I think they can. And this is big because we've seen in the past where Florida and Miami had some unbelievable matchups. I stl remember the game. I want to say it was 2003 at this point where Devin Hester return the opening kickoff. They were down with Brock Berlin three three touchdowns in the second half. Came all the way back to win that. We've had some memorable games, including the Florida flop back in the day where Miami's last play of the game, they all laid down on defense to let Florida score another touchdown. So they got a long history that goes back. I love to see this rivalry continue, but also Miami is not on a neutral site. They're not playing in the Citrus Bowl. They're not playing in the you know, the old Orange Bowl quite frankly down at hard Rock. This game is on the road and they're laying points to the Florida Gators, which tells you something right off the bat. And this line has been out for quite some time. And not really moving all that much. And also, it might be astounding to people watching the show today. The Florida Gators team total at four and a half. This buys into it. This is one of those games where you might be looking at Florida's schedule, as they need absolutely to win this game. If they want to win five games on the season. So I'm buying into the line itself and the hype for Miami now get this though, Miami is really hyped coming into the season. We've seen it maybe some times over the past. Malik Rosier is in there and maybe they're winning games, but we know they're ultimately all not that good. This could be a referendum game right off the bat, Mario Cristobal walks into Florida, picks up a victory. Doesn't even matter if it's ugly. Those vibes are going to continue the rest of the way. But it's not as if saying like, hold on. If they lose to Florida, they can still make the college football Playoff, I get that, but this feels like a game that Miami absolutely must have here and is expected to win that they need to win, that. I'm expecting Miami to come out big. Your quarterback, maybe the best quarterback they've had over the past couple years by far solid running back position here. The talent, the wide receiver position. One of the best young defensive ends in college football. Rushing the passer. Get the job done Miami. This would mean that maybe you are starting to come back here into that national picture. It's year number three for Billy Napier. It's year number three for Mario Cristobal. A lot of year over year improvement is expected in both spots. Does Napier get a little bit of the benefit of the doubt because of the Gators schedule? I don't really think so. Again the hardest schedule in the country. The only good news for UCF is of the eight ranked opponents they have to play based on the preseason AP top 25, five of them including tomorrow in the swamp, Come at home last year as a dog, Napier and the Gators just two and five against the spread in his first year. Five and one against the number. And they were great as an underdog at Louisiana under Napier in his four years there, 12 and 5ATS, but not good defensively last year for Florida. That's where the improvement needs to be in Miami returns. Its entire offensive line that led the canes to 173 rushing yards per game. Yes, they are going to air it out and they've got a great trio of wide receivers led by Xavier Restrepo. And they've got cam Ward there as well who threw for the seventh most passing yards last year in college football or eighth most passing yards, but still over 3700. But Damien Martinez, the transfer running back from Oregon State, a name to know for tomorrow against a bad Florida rushing defense a season ago. Sin City on a Sunday. The third and final LSU vs. USC: Sin City Showdown ranked versus ranked matchup that we have, it's LSU, a four and a half point favorite against USC. The over under stands at 64.5 Doctors. Both of these teams played 13 games a season ag, including their bowl victories. Both went over a ton. USC over in ten of 13. LSU, the highest over percentage in college football last year, over in 12 of 13. Both have brought in no new defensive coordinators. Hoping to shore up that side of the football. What do we see out in Las Vegas? I'm going to buck the trends here and I'm going to go against the grain, U c LSU opened up as a 6.5. favorite. That's down to four and a half. I'm going to take LSU in this game just trusting that SEC talent and also trying to remind ourselves you're not just moving on from a quarterback at USC and also LSU by saying like, oh, you know, they were decent players. No, they were generational talents at their institutions. And both of those guys high draft picks into the NFL. So I see that 62.5 that goes to 64.5d both teams breaking in new quarterbacks. I'm going to go under the 64.5. So I'll go against the grain on the actual line itself. I'll buy the interest at four and a half where it was close to a touchdown, and I'm going to go under in this one. I understand what you said last year. A lot of these games went over, but again, you're talking about some of the best quarterback play in Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams that we've seen in a long time. And I think it might take some time. And also a neutral site here to open up the season. I might lean on the under in this one. Listen, both defensive coordinators now at their new spots poached from conference rivals D'anton Lynn, the new DC at USC leaves. UCLA makes the short trip from downtown LA to west, from Westwood to downtown LA to take over the reins at Southern Cal. Blake Baker, the new defensive coordinator in Baton Rouge last year in Columbia with Missouri, by the way, Mizzou didn't skip a beat on that side of the football. Yes, an FCS opponent in Murray State but a 51 nothing victory yesterday for Missouri, ranked 11th in the country. I'm going to wait on the total until I see these defenses, because the offenses are going to be good once again, Miller Moss six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl last year for USC. The heir apparent now to Caleb Williams in Lincoln. Riley's offenses. Say what you want about the defense. But Lincoln Riley's offenses are always there. Garrett Nussmeier has bided his time as well. Both his time in Baton Rouge. He takes the reins of this strong offense for LSU. Kyren Lacy, a really good wide receiver, much in the mold of a Malik Nabers for LSU. Here is my plea to Oklahoma State vs. South Dakota State: FCS Challenge Oklahoma State. We'll talk about this game a little bit more on the other side, and really, as we saw last night for Colorado, stop scheduling the Dakotas and the FCS powerhouses in college football because North Dakota State is the most historic program. But South Dakota State is up right now, two consecutive national I don't know why anybody in their right mind would decide to start a college football season with expectation against a team that plays FCS football in the Dakotas, whether it's South or North. North Dakota State is the biggest pedigreed program in FCS college football. Nine national championships, six in the last ten years. But you know who's won the last two that South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits they have won two consecutive FCS national titles. They have won 29 consecutive games. Their last loss in a football game was to start 2022 against Iowa. The Hawkeyes held on for a 7 to 3 victory. We call it the Iowa touchdown. Now it was two safeties and a field goal that led to those seven points, and there is so much returning talent for South Dakota State against a team that also features a lot of returning talent in Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys, who entered the year as a ranked team, getting ready for this matchup against Sdsu. But less than a double digit spread, as we saw at often points entering last night in Boulder, the pokes land nine and a half at home, the over under 54.5. I'll just say good luck to the Cowboys. Yeah. By the way, is it just apparent that if you do play North Dakota State or South Dakota State, you just automatically line that game at nine and a half as it feels like? Because that line was for most of the week, they're on Colorado itself. But you're right about this as a head coach, you don't like to see these games, even though you're still supposed to win it. And it's nice to get a test here, because the one thing you saw from Colorado, they picked up the victory. But you get some good film work to say, look, that was a really good team. We pulled out that victory as opposed to the mirage of let's wipe Howard off the field. Yeah. We were fantastic in the role in game number two against a legitimate opponent. Said, whoa. Things are really different at this point. So there's something to be said about that. And also the advent of the 12 team playoff, where I guess if you lose the South Dakota State, you're still involved in the national championship picture, even though that most people probably won't pick you to win it. If you do drop to an FBS and FCS team, nine and a half for me, 54.5 the way I saw yesterday, I think that 54.5 certainly going to be in danger. I would go over in this because I do think you're going to get a great punch out of South Dakota State and Oklahoma State. You know, they're going to be in it with some offense. So as opposed to laying the points, I think it's going to be a close game to what we saw yesterday. But I think we do get into the 50s here in this game. Yes. The rabbits were the best scoring defense in FCS college football last year, allowing 9.3 points per game, and they run it and their quarterback, Mark Gronowski is back as well. He was the FCS Offensive Player of the year a season ago. 29 touchdown passes to only five interceptions, 402 yards on the ground, eight rushing scores. But when you talk about running the football in this game, you must mention the nation's leading rusher, who is back. Ollie Gordon, the second 1732 rushing yards, 21 TDs last year, 118 yards on the ground or more in nine of the 14 for the Cowboys, a year ago. So because of that, Donny, I actually do think we will see some points. And listen, North Dakota State was a good defense last year in college football, but you see how the secondary got exposed against the pure talent that Colorado has. I don't think South Dakota State is going to be able to fully shut down Ollie Gordon, the second or the returning seventh year quarterback in Alan Bowman. I think we will see some points tomorrow in Stillwater, and Oklahoma State has allowed 29 points per game in each of the last two years. Worst total and passing defense in the big 12 a season ago. Let's go to Penn State vs. West Virginia: Historic Rivalry a rivalry in college football. That's Penn State and West Virginia, one of the marquee matchups to start the slate on a Saturday. The 61st all time meeting between the Nittany Lions and the mountaineers. They met last year. Penn State scored a touchdown with five seconds left with their backup quarterback to win 3815. The Nittany Lions covered as a 20 .5. favorite. Apparently, that is stuck in the craw of Neil Brown's team there in Morgantown. They're not too pleased. Will they be able to cover or maybe even win outright at home against PSU to start off this season, you're taking a look at the FanDuel sports book opening this line, Ben, at ten and a half, they're now down to eight and a half. Other outlets have dropped as low as seven and a half right now. So the belief right now is Virginia is going to be a live dog. Now, how much you want to draw back from previous performance say that wasn't fair. We're going to get you back for scoring a touchdown late. That's neither here nor there because one thing we know about James Franklin, if he has a chance to put an extra seven on the board, he'll try to put an extra 14 points on the board regardless of what the scoreboard says. 51.5 sounds about right, but this is a pretty good rivalry here. Stoking the fire in week number one. I'm probably going to lean a little dog points here. West Virginia at home getting more than a touchdown. Probably the way I'm going to lean. Key matchup WVU best rushing offense in the big 12 last year. Averaging 229 yards per game in their three leading rushers, who had more than 770 yards on the ground