#LIVE: Forecasting With Friends - Hurricane Francine Special Coverage

and fox weathers Brandy Campbell is in Baton Rouge Louisiana but we begin first with meteorologists John Dawson and ramisha shade in the weather center tracking Francine's path all right we are definitely uh been busy uh throughout the last couple of days tracking yeah tracking Francine we're a little bit uh relieved of the path that has not coming here locally to Houston uh but yeah we as mentioned that countdown has really really begun here with the last um couple hours before landfall so let's take a look at that that map on where we're expecting to see that landfall within the next couple of hours we are going to see uh what looks like right now at least a category 1 hurricane with 90 M hour winds now 96 m per hour winds would get you a category two hurricane so this is going to be very close as it begins to make that uh possible landfall uh towards uh the Louisiana coast uh getting those um conditions uh really uh close to making uh that landfall so right now that landfall is expected to be with uh 90 mph winds uh right in the center of Louisiana uh Vermilion Bay there and then you can see on the map just going to head right up pretty much between Lafayette and New Orleans as a category one hurricane it'll obviously weaken once it makes landfall and then move on into uh here to the rest of the uh the Louisiana state there and continue to make its way even further Inland as a tropical storm with winds as high as perhaps 45 miles an hour as it continues to move on through just so we're local here here in the Houston area we have no Watches or Warnings that we're concerned with at the moment but we are looking at the hurricane watch or sorry warnings and tropical storm mornings over to our East we'll continue to see those until that landfall takes place those are pretty much strictly based on winds there's also some storm surge concerns over there again locally here in the Houston area we've got our Coastal flood warning what was downgraded to a coastal flood advisory and it's been extended all the way through most of the day tomorrow we're still looking at a possibility of seeing a foot or two of storm surge those low-lying areas that we sometimes have problems with those are going to be something that we're concerned with once again and we'll see those storms as a possibility those isolated showers and storms also rolling around the area the main concern is going to be what's happening right along the coast and the beach but you'll notice that advisory though does wrap all the way around Galveston Bay so here's that look one more time of where we see you can see that little jog there at the end some of that is just sort of some Reformation of the center some of it is actually movement that's taking place but really beginning to get in the last couple of hours before rain landfall our radar imagery shows that eye even a little bit better it's fairly broad you can also see the stronger storms uh that are going to be Associated around that and tightening up here you can see all of the details on where some of those towns are uh where some of the cities are that you've are familiar with uh and we're definitely going to be keeping an eye uh on what happens in New Orleans Baton Rouge Lafayette and all of those uh specific areas as a matter of fact we have some folks there in Baton Rouge that is right we are closely monitoring this situation of course like JD said a few minutes ago relief exactly what we're feeling in the Houston area because a few days ago it looked like Francine might be heading our way but of course that track continued to shift to the East and of course what's good news for us is horrible news for a big chunk of the lisiana Gulf Coast of course that ey wall of Francine now less than 100 miles away from making landfall and it is likely going to bring a ton of rain big- time dangerous storm surge and of course those ferocious winds we want to head out to Fox weather reporter Brandy Campbell out in Baton Rouge Brandy what is it looking like out there it doesn't look super windy right now but have you experienced some Gusty wind what's the situation at this [Applause] point hey Risha yeah thankfully we haven't seen any uh very impactful impacts from Francine not just yet so as you can tell if you just look off in the distance behind me the trees they aren't moving much at all and that's kind of been the case for most of this morning and when it comes to rain it's also been pretty light for most of the day so that's the good news we're not seeing any flooding from the storm just yet uh but we know we are just really in the early stages as we aren't going to feel the brunt of it here in the Baton Rouge area until around midnight I was told a lot of the impacts will start to come in around 9 o' but around midnight is when the center of the storm will be passing us so we'll be on the Northwestern side of the storm uh but when it comes to Baton Rouge they have things in place to be ready the uh mayor president of the city she said they went ahead and put in their uh disaster declaration so they can free up those resources to get ready so doing things like clearing up the storm Basin so if we take a look just across the street you see right there if there was flooding they went ahead and cleared out uh you know those situations to make sure they're okay but we shouldn't see it in this specific area now if we just take a look continuing across the street you see this restaurant they're open sign off so a lot of places closing early today and that's not just restaurants but also that includes hardware stores places where people were going to get some gear or supplies to be ready for the storm or even grocery stores we went to one earlier today they closed at 12:00 so we caught some last minute Shoppers who who said they weren't quite uh super concerned but they wanted to make sure that they were ready for the storm back to you ask you like what type of activity have you been seeing around town I know it looks like it's kind of deserted where you are but have you seen any folks out making extremely last minute preparations and also what types of weather are you expecting what's the worst of it expecting for that area yeah so the worst we're going to expect is some heavy rainfall and also we could get wind gust between 50 and 60 miles per hour or even up to 70 if it gets to that point and when it comes to folks yeah it's been pretty quiet in downtown but we have seen some people coming by to get some groceries before they're locked inside back to you all right good reports there from Baton Rouge uh with our Fox Weather correspondents we'll be having a few more conversations like that coming up right now though we have a great opportunity to talk with the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami this is Jamie Rome Jamie can you hear me this afternoon I got you loud and clear oh fantastic good to see you Jamie I know at this point I think our forecast pretty set not a lot of questions about where Francine's going but what are the concerns right now for you folks uh as as far as getting ready for this to make its landfall you know we're really focusing at this point on making sure people uh start thinking about the post landfall hazards while they still have uh Power and internet and can hear these messages you know you and I have talked about this many times uh sometimes it's a heat uh oppressive Heat and the loss of power that uh ends up being the big hazards after these storms um often you know we have a greater loss of life in the days after landfall than we do at landfall that with Barrel here across the state of Texas where carbon monoxide poisoning uh and other heat uh related injuries and deaths were were something that was taking place so I can see where that's that's the messaging that you might be shifting to again with with your primary uh you know goals being to to get it very clear where this is headed and we've kind of got that uh pretty much narrowed down at this point in time tell me a little bit about the concerns with Louisiana there specific uh topography and and I know storm surge is also a threat but how is Francine going to going to hit Louisiana the hardest I think it's going to be a water a big water event in the form of storm surge heavy rains occurring basically in the same place and you couple that with the sort of pre-existing rains that they were having you know in days and weeks in advance uh I think the soils at some point are going to get saturated um you know you and I have seen this numerous times the saturated soils just make the trees come down even easier uh when the winds come ashore and they're starting to come ashore now and I think that's going to drive the power outages up uh Jamie unfortunately I'm being told we're kind of running out of time a little bit here for our conversation but I I I want to ask you this question uh because I haven't had a chance to really talk with anybody about the with the Hurricane Center um since you've started implementing your new forecast cone um again it's not operational I don't think but it certainly Francine has gotten some good or use of it I know so just tell me a little bit about how that's going and anything else you want to share about the new uh kind of improved uh cone forecast cone that we've started using a little bit yeah we launched it earlier in August for but for all intensive purposes this is the first storm that we could really demonstrate the full capacity and capabilities of the new graphic and uh the initial feedback is uh positive because we're better able to articulate and communicate the Inland risk of wind whereas the older cone primarily focused on the coastal Threat all right that's fantastic appreciate your time today again Jamie Rome deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami always good chatting with you uh we'll hope to have another opportunity to talk with you again uh soon we're going to go ahead and check in now uh with meteorologist ramisha shade all right let's get another look at Francine which of course is a category one hurricane we are on what we call the clean side the western side and if you've got to be on any side of this that is definitely the side to be on because usually there's less win less rain not a ton going on we are getting some light spotty rain showers for our area however nothing close to being severe of course this is the center of circulation just to the south of New Iberia south of Baton Rouge getting close to that middle Louisiana Gulf Coast you could see that swirl you could see those intense rain bands in that eyew wall of hurricane Francine of course the Eastern side the area to the east of that Center of circulation is the dirty side that's the side where you're going to have super heavy rain that storm surge risk increases and of course the tornado risk increases as well in fact speaking of tornado risk I want to show you that we already have a tornado watch out for a big chunk of the Louisiana area this is out through 11: p.m. tonight you'll see that does include the New Orleans area New Iberia and several other Louisiana cities because Francine is getting close to making landfall can see that eye and that intense eyewall with those heavy thunderstorms likely some of those severe getting close to making landfall and all of this rain action will be pushing on Shore over the next several hours so these cities will be lashed by Heavy Rain strong wind that storm surge risk increasing and of course we've also got the tornado threat so a lot of different threats going on here also looks like there are a couple of flood warnings there so it's just going to be a very messy scenario off to our East for much of the Louisiana Gul Coast now let me take you back to what's going on in our area you may be wondering yes we're on the cleaner side but do we have any impacts any risk from Hurricane Francine at this point we do still have one advisory there's a little bit of good news this was a coastal flood warning that's a little more severe but over the last 30 minutes or so National Weather Service has downgraded that Coastal flood warning to a coastal flood advisory so that basically means there could still be a little bit of flooding due to storm surge maybe storm surge around one to two feet still expected for parts of our Coastal area so down around Galviston the Boliver Peninsula down around Freeport there will be the potential for still a few feet of storm surge that water could still pile up onto the coast and of course that could mean some flooding that could be Tak place so we are not completely out of the woods but yes we do have still that slim risk for some coastal flooding the wind advisory though was allowed to expire so we've gotten rid of that but there could still be some wind gusts around 30 35 possibly close to 40 miles per hour but likely closer to 30 to 35 I want to show you where we do have some rain at this point you can see some spotty mainly light rain showers stretching from Katy to Sugarland few heavier bursts of rain down around Angleton Lake Jackson and also down towards Freeport but this is not severe of course if Francine had come a little closer to us it would have been so much worse with widespread Heavy Rain likely widespread flooding but that is not the case for us so we are fortunate and thankful I'm sure as far as a rain chance farther north we do have some spotty showers up towards Cypress Mission bin as I said Sugarland downtown Houston getting some sprinkles little spritzes of rain here and there but just not a ton of rain at but we do have the clouds kind of dreary and Breezy out there but like I said it could have been a lot worse so if this is all we have to deal with this is a great thing farther north we've got some rain showers up around Huntsville right along Interstate 45 over towards Navasota you are getting some light to moderate rain but nothing severe happening in our area so let's talk about Southeast Texas impacts as we continue to track Francine of course the most horrible of the weather is going to be off to our East Louisiana but there could still be some wind sustained out of the North around 20 mph with gust up to about 30 to 35 milph minor coastal flooding still possible and yes we can't roll out maybe a brief isolated thunderstorm but even the chance for that is on the lower side it looks like that big-time severe risk including tornado threat storm surge threat flooding threat will be off to our East all right Risha thank you now we do have Crews all across the Gulf Coast monitoring these impacts we have Leslie delor over here we have Sherman toell right behind me and Sherman is live in Lafayette Louisiana and Sherman correct me with if I'm wrong you grew up there right yeah so I'm actually in Morgan City which is about an hour and a couple of minutes south of Lafayette and I grew up uh a few um they would consider me in Louisiana a northerner I grew up in Alexandria Central Louisiana but I'm familiar with all these parts just between friends and family so take a look this is the a chaalia river and this is a a body of water that a lot of locals check when a storm is coming in uh pan to the right you see this guy over here he's been monitoring everything this is what we normally see uh here in Louisiana When Storms are coming by people are just coming to check this particular area so uh further to the right over here turn around Chandler this is uh downtown Morgan City an older historic City so it has that historic nostalgic old school feel but you'll notice that a lot of these businesses of course they're empty right now but they're boarded up as well because of how uh low uh the city uh sits by this River and it's Sur this area is surrounded by bodies of water it's not just the aaaaya river but it's the Bayou and the aaaaya actually feeds into the Gulf so that kind of gives you an idea of how close we are to the Gulf of Mexico and so a lot of people's main concerns here wind storm surge uh that's something that a lot of people along the coastal parts of of this uh part of Louisiana will always worry about and deal with for the most part though the people that we've run into they say that they've they've seen worse they felt worse they've they've lived through worse they just wanted to do what it needs to do and get get out of here uh in the last 30 minutes to an hour would you say chanler we've heard that wind pick up we've been hearing it Roar across the bridge uh so we definitely know that it's it's coming here and uh it's moving relatively fast just based off of what raisha has been telling us and what other forecasts have been telling us here's that pocket of wind yeah so we've been getting pockets of wind pockets of rain people just checking in seeing what it looks like but again this is the aaaaya big body of water that goes through a lot of different parts of the southern region and there's a Floodgate uh right over there on that side as well so there's a lot of things happening here you got any questions for me Caroline yes Sherman so you're in Morgan City Louisiana and it really doesn't look like there's a whole lot of people that are out there right now is it I mean have people evacuated is it somewhat of a ghost town at this point I do see some other people standing where you're standing yeah yeah no it's it's it's it's it looks like a ghost town right now but people are hunkered down uh just to the left of us on the other side of these downtown buildings are some homes and there are some people on their porches because they're just used to living in this type of condition uh for the most part A lot of people have not gotten out of Morgan City because it just doesn't deem it to be bad enough to leave some people leave just for the comfort of not having to deal with power outages and things like that but um for the most part everybody's just kind of sticking around just just waiting this thing on out wow like you well Sherman please be careful and stay safe out there we appreciate your update all right now we want to head on over to our reporter lesie dallis bore live in Galvis with what conditions are like at the coast there Leslie on the West End near Bay Harbor right so this is my friend Miss Jesse Anne and she was so nice to let us come to her home uh now I want you to kind of walk us through what you saw it was like 4:30 this morning and now this water subsided but you saw something different right tell me what you saw you know jelly fish and all that so now it's going to go out so it'll probably leave the critters on land for me oh I mean how does this um you know um I guess how do I want to say this how high does this typically get is this normal for you all right Leslie it looks like we were having some microphone problems there with you I would like to get you back so we can hear from that resident there as we could see that flooding and Leslie if you can hear me sometimes if you hold the bottom of the mic like that will it'll break up so hold the Stick of it that might fix it all right so we are continuing to cover uh hurricane Francine making its way to Louisiana but obviously you could see there in Leslie's live shot that there is already storm surge and some flooding happening in galvaston let's get back to our meteor just John Dawson who's been tracking the storm JD yeah we really you know here in the Houston area like downtown Houston just not much happening uh we've got a little bit of rain uh I don't even know that it's that much breezier than usual to be perfectly honest but on the coast in galvaston biver Peninsula even further a little bit down to the South there are certainly some impacts that are recognizable it's not your average day uh here in September uh you can tell that there's tropical weather in the proximity again it's not a hurricane making a landfall but it's certainly something that you can tell is different and those impacts are taking place and certainly inconvenience if not even more than causing some problems the what I would call lifethreatening uh storm surge and winds and things like that are much further over to the east into Louisiana let's check in real quick again with that latest from the National Hurricane on our Graphics uh we'll be able to see that that forecast cone of where we're expecting to make landfall is tightening up here there's just not that much time left right now 90 mph winds are what we're looking at as far as that landfall taking place so that's going to be technically a cat one hurricane very close to a category 2 hurricane that'll continue to take place again through the rest of this evening and then we're going to watch this storm really track up and through Mississippi uh continuing to bring some D damaging winds along with lots of rainfall as it does so uh and then that's going to lead to potential for everything else that that that we've seen with tropical systems with lots of rain with some flooding but also those damaging winds could be knocking down power lines that's going to be looking for some power outages that are associated as well and continuing to take it all the way up into even Tennessee with some rain all right we're going to go ahead and get back in into the studio with Caroline got JD a lot to look out for I think that we have Leslie delis Sport's microphone all fixed up down in galvon as you can see some areas already seeing storm surge and flooding lesie yeah apologies for that technical those technical issues earlier but again I'm here with Jesse Anne now Jesse an you live on the west end in Bay Harbor of galston and you came outside it was about 4:30 this morning and now like I said this water that you can kind of I don't know if you guys can see our feet but I know you can hear a sloshing around here this water was a lot higher when you first woke up this morning tell me what you saw and what you woke up to well it's dark but all my lights are on so when I went to bed the tide was high anyway so as the storm passes it's just throwing the nice clean water because we're on the clean side so all the Bay water comes up here with Little Critters um shrimp I was down here trying to make sure everything was tied down School of shrimp swam right in front of my feet and uh when the tide recedes which is happening now so you can see that it's coming back off the bulkhead it's coming off of the pier wow and it'll start going on down where it belongs and puts itself back in its bank but it's going to be leaving some Critters on the concrete and we'll just pressure wash off the mud and the muck and any Critters that got left behind and so about how high does this water typically get and you can run it anywhere from 10 in to 17 in and I mean you seem pretty calm I mean you said you saw a school of shrimp swimming in front of you I probably would have freaked out but tell me why you're so calm and I mean I guess this is a norm because you live you've lived here for so long right this is the price you PID for living in Paradise these houses are built to withstand this so it's nothing to get scared about wind however you know can take things away flood is going to float things so as long as you live upstairs and you're above the water level you're pretty safe yeah and did you have any damage or anything to you know I guess you this garage area this lower level here no no damage it's just water and it's going to soak up the cedar siding and within years as it goes by that cedar siding will rot and you'll replace it and move on yeah and you were explaining to me earlier too that when the storm kind of moved past galvon um it brought that tide and so explain kind of what you know just based off of living here what typically happens with that tide When Storms come through so when I went to bed last night with the tide being right at the edge of the bulkhead it was high 10:30 11:00 knowing that the storm was going to pass us turning in a uh counterclockwise is throwing all this Bay water on us but as it passes Galveston it's going to be sucking all that Bay water out which is what it's doing now so if you just watch that spin it's got to throw it somewhere and then it's got to suck it out later this afternoon it'll probably well bake back into its banks wow perfect and so now I know uh when we were walking this way I was trying to watch my step here show me again I I kind of want you to show me where that drop off is and again just the difference of where the water was to this post versus where it is now sure so this is the bay itself didn't want to step off in there um of course we've got the pier that goes out it's pretty safe but bulkheads is what's supposed to hold the water in the bay but of course Mother Nature says it's coming out there it is perfect awesome well again miss Jesse Anne like I said lives here on the West End of galston in Bay Harbor and she's been here forever as you you heard her say she's used to this so we'll be out here all day and kind of taking a look at uh this water and letting this tide and go back into the bay back to you in studio all right Leslie delport thank you so much for that update now I want to get back to our meteorologist John Dawson and JD I have a couple questions for you I believe the worst of our impacts have passed is that correct and the worst has yet to come for the folks in Louisiana and that impact will be between like 4 and 8 tonight am I right on that uh yeah as far as the timing in Louisiana you're right in the fact that we're starting to ramp up right now even while we were talking to Sherman D cell a minute ago I thought things were getting worse while we were talking with him and so yes uh the the worst of what's happening in Louisiana is really beginning right now and for us yes for the majority of us we have seen the worst of what we're going to see we do still expect some of that water that we were looking at there with Leslie delosa's live shot to continue to be a problem for some parts of Galviston with some of that minor flooding all right a few minutes ago we were talking with Jamie Rome the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center and our friends at Fox Weather decided they wanted to talk to him as well so we kind of got a little bit interrupted but I'm glad to say that Jamie is back he's available to check in with us a little bit and um I want to sort of continue our conversation but also just sort of review a little bit and start over and basically say uh your forecasting stress I think at this point has minimized because we know where it's going um but I think there are certainly some concerns some messaging that you're still wanting to get out to the folks in Louisiana yeah we're trying to get out the message of the post landfall hazards while people still have internet and TV and power to hear this message um so so often we see the storms you know people lose power and and access to information and it's it becomes difficult to to to communicate with them and often some of the greatest threats um come in the hours and days after landfall where it becomes really really tough to talk to people and I think that's good to get that messaging out early and we certainly saw that with the power outages across Texas and the Houston area with Barrel when it moved through earlier on in the season I'm going to expect some of that that to happen as well into Louisiana uh is there something else that's a concern um or is that kind of where your focus is just the fact that there's going to be loss of power yeah I mean I think the the pre-existing conditions in the form has been very wet over the area for several days especially last night the you know leading up to the storm um and so you've got all that rainfall falling on saturated soil plus the storm surge you got a lot of water really piling up with nowhere to go uh and then sometimes what happens in that case is the The Roots the tree roots are loosened up a little bit in the soil and that makes them come down even more easily when the core of the Winds move ashore and as you noted a few seconds ago those winds are already starting to move ashore pretty quickly so what you could see here is is a lot of power outages um and then if it occurs at night time overnight which is looking like it's going to do uh driving conditions get especially treacherous so we really just want people to just stay put stay home uh don't be out moving around I know it's you you're curious you want to see what's happening um this is going to be a good night just to stay home and I always like when I have an opportunity to talk a little bit more science we don't have to get too technical in our discussions but there's a a kind of a a pop words that are really used a lot this day these days when we look at this rapid intensification and again it's a legit thing it certainly happens uh when those storms all of a sudden go from a cat W and the ne you know before you know it it's a cat 3 but we really did not see that with this particular storm and I was I don't want to say I was surprised but my initial thoughts were this should happen the water was so warm in the Gulf of Mexico but we had a lot of other factors kind of laying in there with an old frontal boundary and a couple different steering currents and some dry air so I just kind of wanted to give you an opportunity to sort of uh tell us a little bit about this uh term rapid intensification and and what you saw when y'all were forecasting for Francine yeah so rapid intensification is is just basically what we call a system that strengthens very very quick quickly rapidly um and we've seen a lot of it in the in the last five to 10 years so it's natural for people to assume that any system in the Gulf of Mexico is going to rapidly intensify in this case we had several unique factors uh coming to play um the storm was basically riding along a a line or an axis of of vertical Shear where everything to the West Was higher vertical Shear or an environment that was less conducive for development and everything to the east was more conducive for development the storm kind of rode right along that line uh if you will and that's what made the forecast really really tricky you know if it had it moved a little bit to the east it could have developed uh you know been a bit a stronger system if it would have moved to the West it would have been a weaker system um in this case the forecast played out pretty much as expected so we're we're generally pleased with that but we're remaining steadfast to make sure that the people you know In Harm's Way are receiving the the warnings and the messaging and taking the necessary precautions had several opportunities to attend some conferences together and we've sat in some workshops and things that talk a lot about the social science that's involved with weather prediction and I know that that most of the time you've got to stick to a rule book you got to do certain things depending on certain parameters but when I look at this storm and your max winds are sitting at 90 miles an hour if you were to bump them up six miles an hour on your expectations then this thing gets to be called a cat 2 instead of a cat one so talk a little bit about some of that thinking that has to go get into your forecasts when or do you take that much into account when you're forecasting a storm as a category one or a category two when it starts to make its landfall yeah it's absolutely important for you and me that that five or six m per hour is a rounding era but for the general public going from a cat one to a cat 2 represents a massive step in their perception of the risk of the storm so clearly as a physical scientist you're sort of balancing this this need to sort of you know get it right get it perfect with this need to communicate in a way that people understand and resonate with and and doesn't cause unnecessary Panic so you're you're always sort of you know sort of juggling you know dealing with that tug and pull um I mean in this case you know we got we have no evidence that it it made it across that cat 2 threshold but we've got an airplane in there right now you know still investigating the storm um hopefully it stays a category one but yeah you hit on what is the the number one challenge for you and me both uh it's not the forecasting everybody assumes the forecasting is the most challenging part it's figuring out how to convey that forecast in a way that resonates with people and helps them to make U you know make good decisions yeah and because a lot of times people just look at that number is this a cat one or a cat two because a cat one I do this and a cat two to I do this but as you have said earlier it's it's not that easy all these storms are different I always say that every hurricane has its own personality uh and that it's threats that will bring so tell me about Francine tell me that what personality that that storm has and what's going to hit hardest in Louisiana you know Francine for now I mean the story hasn't been written yet it's being written the story hasn't been written yet um you based off the forecast of what we think going to happen it's going to be a water storm and for South Louisiana this is not a typical almost all their storms are Big Water Events just because they're so low-lying flat and and flood prone um but what what I fear might happen and what you know people in Louisiana might not anticipate because they are so fixated on the saffr Simpson scale is this long tail of a hazard that could last well after landfall um if we do end up with power outages and people sort of you overdoing it heat exhaustion uh you know you working through the cleanup and and and sort of overdoing it in this oppressive heat all right as I mentioned Jamie Rome and I we get to see each other in some of these workshops and and uh conferences that we go to I'm excited to see you again sometime when we're not talking about an active storm but it's good to touch Spas with you again this afternoon I appreciate your Insight I'm in take care all right up next we're going to get back over and talk about what fr is doing right now with Rish with meteorologist Risha shade well Francine is a Whopper of a hurricane out there in the gulf and it could actually strengthen a little bit over the next few hours before making landfall probably between about 4: to 700 p.m. this afternoon and evening at this point it's about 95 miles to the southwest of Morgan City Louisiana it's about 150 miles Southwest of New Orleans you can see New Orleans right there Baton Rouge New Iberia and you can also see that fairly well defined eye and those thunderstorms that continue to pop up and strengthen in that eye wall that Center of circulation starting to push very close to that middle Louisiana Gulf Coast here's the latest with Francine at this point a strong category one hurricane with 90 M hour winds and it has picked up some speed today it's now racing to the Northeast around 17 miles hour that pressure has been dropping and we are expecting the potential for this to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane just before landfall so if that were to happen of course that would make all the impacts even worse but notice the official forecast by 7pm has Francine making that landfall with winds right around 90 miles per hour of course that warm deep water of the Gulf of Mexico helps to fuel these tropical systems so once they lose that and they roll on to land they start to kind of lose Steam and weaken so of course as we go into the next couple of days Thursday morning Francine already down to a 45 m per hour tropical storm then it's going to roll right up towards the Memphis area and that's likely when it starts to kind of fall apart that's going to be Thursday into Friday down to a tropical depression on Thursday and then by Friday just a plain old ruminant low as it falls apart right around the m area but we've got to get through today because today of course Francine will bring significant impacts to much of Louisiana so I want to show you this graphic this is our exclusive Fox Model futurecast this of course tracks that weather into the future hour by hour so let me break it down for you and show you exactly what we're expecting we are talking about a landfalling hurricane likely for this evening in fact right around 5:00 p.m. notice where that eye is located it is right along that Louisiana Gulf Coast very close to the New Iberia area and getting close to Baton Rouge so I think Baton Rouge will likely have some pretty severe impacts from Francine as this hurricane makes landfall you can also see the Deep Reds and oranges and yellows that is some super heavy rain we're talking about the potential for maybe five to 10 inches of rain for Baton Rouge even over towards the New Orleans area some very heavy rain likely falling and that is going to bring a significant flood risk as we go through this evening and tonight heading into this evening future cast our Fox Model future cast around 8:00 pm showing still all of that heavy rain and of course you've got to think about the hurricane force winds that will likely be rolling through Baton Rouge maybe parts of New Orleans so it certainly will be a mess a dangerous scenario hopefully folks there have taken cover they're ready for this they prepared and they are in shelter in place and ready for this storm to roll through as we go into tomorrow morning of course it will start to get a little bit weaker but that heavy rain and tornado threat will still be with us as it pushes farther Inland notice by Thursday afternoon 2 pm it's starting to roll up towards the mhit area and that's kind of where it will fall apart by Friday and Saturday but it is going to be a very severe situation as far as this storm this hurricane pushing into the Louisiana area in fact I want to show you this graphic this is wind probability this is showing the chance for tropical storm force winds and it is a large area fortunately it doesn't include us here in Houston it does not include you in galvaston but much of the Louisiana area going to be dealing with tropical storm force winds and even hurricane force winds likely from New Iberia to Baton Rouge and over to New Orleans so it's going to be a big wind threat but like I said we are fortunate we are on that clean side western side and we are out of that risk for those tropical storm force winds also let me show you the peak storm surge forour area still down around the Boliver Peninsula for parts of galvaston other Coastal communities there's still the risk for maybe one to two feet of storm surge but that is not going to be the case for Louisiana up to 10 feet of storm surge where frine makes landfall so a Whopper of a hurricane we are tracking it closely and we want to hear hear from you do you have some weather questions to ask us do you want to know about what's going on with this tropical system or any other weather questions comment with your weather questions for me and also for JD and we would like to answer those Risha thank you let's bring in Anthony Antoine to our chat we are covering hurricane Francine and it's made its way past Houston but now and it's heading towards Louisiana as a category one and that is actually where we're going to find our Sherman to sell he's in Morgan City where that thing looks like it is headed straight towards you guys out there Sherman yeah good evening Caroline or good afternoon rather uh it's kind of hard to tell what time of the day it is when weather gets this this choppy so we're in Morgan City uh which is about an hour and few a few minutes uh south of Lafayette um we've been hearing this area being um an emphasis when it comes to landfall and the the effects that we're going to see from Francine I'm going to give you a little bit more of an idea of what these people deal with on a regular basis so this is the achapa river okay and this feeds into the Gulf but just uh to the side of here are two bodies of water two Lakes local lakes I want to say it's flat Lake and um and one more one more Lake not not too far away but then you know you got the golf right um we've been hearing this wind rip through these two Bridges the long Allen bridge and the gazi bridge uh and so it's definitely picking up we've been seeing people out and about just kind of not not really out and about but coming out here just seeing what's going on they always come and check this area because this is kind of like their downtown central area right take a look at this um come over here chaning want want you to see you see that big silver that's a Floodgate for the people who aren't familiar with what that might look like uh we're looking at it's about maybe 15 20 ft uh and all those floodgates are closed and on the way up here coming from Lafayette we saw a lot of flood protection systems that are closed uh if it wasn't a Floodgate it was more of like a A system that would uh call for the water to reverse to protect those low-lying areas uh if they start to see those Storm surges that's just to make sure that those areas uh those flat areas uh don't get take on as much water as they could if things get too bad out here but again um this is the aaaaya U this is a kind of a place where people get an idea of what it looks it's like and when they know it's time to kind of just go in house go in the house and and wait for things to pass so there's still a little while uh especially backing up with what our Storm Team said about the time uh frame on when we can expect to see these storms and also a good indicator is when you stop seeing those birds flying around that's when you know you probably should just go and Honker down somewhere but right now um a lot of people are just kind of waiting around Caroline wow hey Sherman what's up man this is Anthony anan's kind of joining the coverage here now and um let's get a sense of like the folks out there obviously this shot we're not seeing many people out at all if anyone um but do you get a sense of folks are just kind of adhering is there a curf Y imagine that's in place right now down there um here no um a lot of people just kind of know the law of the land right um you know they they they they just know when it's time to just um to to chill out uh we've seen a couple of police officers doing their rounds every every 30 minutes to an hour a lot of people just know it's it's not really time to just um kind of just go out and see things after a while but because this is not um this is not like a a a strong strong cat two or three you'll see a few people at least in in in my experience dealing with storms in Louisiana you'll see people out just kind of looking around but not out just enjoying the day out really just looking at the the conditions and when they start to deteriorate you'll see less people outside but this is the area where people come to just enjoy the weather you know is around this time of the year in Louisiana if it's not raining it's really hot so this is kind of a break because there's a wind it's a little chilly a little bit um you know some of the nicest weather comes before a storm ironically so that's mainly what you see out here is people just kind of taking a look at things and and and praying for the best really well Sherman that was actually going to be my next question was about the wind I can see behind you the water is moving and I just wanted to know kind of what the difference in the wind has been since you've been standing out there because we have been reporting that this storm is going to bring 90 M hour winds to Louisiana so what are you feeling and noticing at this point yeah I know that wind is picking up let's let's go over here you might hear my my my accent come out but you see that right there you see that flag that's a good indication of of how much that wind is picking up that's when you when you start seeing Festival Flags kind of you know moving on uncontrollable like that that's when you know that that wind is starting to pick up we've seen a couple of um little small palm trees um uh uout over here towards the top right the branches right here we've seen a little bit bit of that but nothing nothing too dramatic we have seen that wind pick up in the in the two hours that we've been in this particular spot and and Sherman you you grew up in Louisiana but you were more Northern in Alexandria I mean what was it like When Storms would like this would come through for you and your family were you far enough away that you didn't see quite the impacts like we're seeing now yeah you know what's funny is most of the time Alexandria Central Louisiana is considered more of a safe haven for people who live in south Louisiana they kind of go north they go Central Louisiana or they go a little bit further toward sh Port nacadish area when they want to dodge a bullet but Alexandria is not um immune uh we dealt with Rita we dealt with gustoff gustoff came um overnight on a Labor Day weekend we woke up we were underwater um and because it was a slow storm it was a slow moving storm and it just sat on top of Alexandria and so we dealt with a lot of localized flooding so um it it all depends on what the storm does um and so as a native alexandrian when we're watching the Storm come into the Gulf of uh the Louisiana Gulf Coast if we see it shift toward the East toward New Orleans we're a little bit happier about that but if we see it hitting more of a Central track then we're kind of nervous until it starts to dissipate because it could easily pick up and go all the way up the state and it can take a couple days but in this case we don't see that um so it all depends really what the storm you know the what what JD said earlier kind of kind of summarizes it well every storm has its own little personality we can predict what a cat one or cat 2 will do but at the end of the day it's going to do what it wants to do um and so with a perfect combination is that that determines the typee of storm that you might deal with so uh to answer your question that was a long answer to the question but in Alexandria we saw less storms we knew that south Louisiana would bear the brunt of these storms um but I have so many friends and family members in this region and and living in New Orleans I know what to expect a little bit um but at the same time the storms will do what they want to do well in I feel like every time a large storm or a hurricane is heading towards Louisiana specifically New Orleans we all know what happened in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina could you bring me back to that point Sherman I know you were pretty young back then but I know that I mean people were feeling the impacts of Katrina all over Louisiana not just specifically New Orleans which was devastated and it kind of just makes you nervous as something like this is heading in their Direction yeah well thankfully we we don't have to compare this particular storm event to anything like Katrina Katrina changed uh the lives of New Orleans forever there's still impacts of Katrina being felt in New Orleans right now not just structurally but culturally um it changed the entire people there's generation there's a generation of people who were impacted by Katrina the minute they were born um I was in college in nacadish Louisiana and I met a lot of friends uh lifelong friends now uh who are from that region they were there because of Katrina but um I'll tell you I was in New Orleans during Hurricane Ida and that wasn't that long ago that was just a few years ago hurricane Ida displaced a lot of people for a little while our power was out I had damage in my house my family was evacuated in North Louisiana for about a week and a half because we didn't have power I stayed at my news station for a week in some in a couple days so you know I know what it's like to not only cover a Louisiana storm but to actually deal with it as a native Louisiana it's no joke um and you also get to see unfortunately uh the societal uh differences you know people who are able to relocate for a few days go get a hotel or go vacate somewhere they have those luxuries but a lot of people just simply they don't leave simply because they can't afford to leave you got to pay gas you got to get lodging you got to get food a lot of people don't have that extra money to get up and move so that's when you're able to see unfortunately how well some people are doing versus how well they're not um but out here in in in this part of Louisiana everybody just does better they do the best with what they what they got you know that's just kind of how they are they're resilient people they don't like to be told that or be called that but they are we're resilient people out here you know even when you talk about Houston you see the Louisiana influence here in Houston itself a lot of folks um who live through Katrina and all those other storms have a very strong presence here in the Houston area as well Sherman thank you so much right now the storm like raisha said about 95 miles south there Southwest of Morgan City it is in the Gulf right now picking up some steam right now at category one but you're going to start to see those outer bands make more of an impact where Sherman is in those surrounding areas Sherman thank you so much stand by though we want to go to some questions here from some viewers um just kind of want to do a Q&A and answer what the folks really want to know because we're going to continue to cover this for several hours now as it continues to make landfall we're going to start here with Kevin he says do you think Sherman is safe where he is in Morgan City should he Run for Cover first and foremost um Sherman stand by um but I want to say you know at the station I think it's safe to say I don't I don't think I know we take the necessary precautions definitely any anytime we are even discussing our plans to move forward about how we're going to cover this for you we make sure that first and foremost safety is a number one concern for Sherman to sell right there now along with his photographer Chandler earlier this morning we had Shelby Rose providing coverage from Morgan City as well so we definitely take the necessary precautions and let's go back out to Sherman Sherman what do you think man Kevin says do you think you're safe out there yeah no Kev I'm I'm all right man I'm all right if if it wasn't safe I would tell the people in in at the station to find something else to do or talk about and cuz I got to get out of here so no we're we're fine um we are fine I think if it was a a problematic first off you wouldn't see as many people out here uh and we would be ducking for cover but no we're fine thank you Kevin I appreciate your concern we're good and and I just want to bring up I just assumed Sherman that you were in 2005 about in Middle School you were in college so compliments to you man yeah College yeah compliments to you we appreciate mean you can say I was in Middle School I can be a little bit younger that's fine young when hurricane no he was in college so um I just thought that we were the same age here so compliments to you Sherman all right and now as we start to see all right Sher be safe out there man all right and JD when we talk about this storm right you see as those otter bands start to make landfall and things get closer we're obviously going to have a discussion about repositioning possibly Sherman even because that strong that storm is going to get even stronger when it makes landfall yeah I had to chuckle though when somebody told me we were going to ask if Sher the question was is Sherman safe in Morgan City and I thought is is Clark Kent safe walking down the street at night I think I think we're okay with uh Sherman Dell wherever we want to send him he's going to be all right but you're you're right though we do take those uh crews out in the field we're very serious and we have plans in place for ret treating and going into safety when things get at its worst it's obviously not at its worst right now so we're continuing to prepare and yes we will move Crews accordingly to position them on where they need to be I will say this I do expect Morgan City to see 60 mph winds probably just below hurricane strength uh as that eye will track a little bit further over to the east well JD we have another question here from Abby how much flooding could we expect in Houston what are your thoughts on that yeah as far as the flooding goes here in Houston we're not going to see uh any flooding here in Houston um along the coast in Galveston some of the Fox 26 viewers are going to have some water that temporarily displaces maybe a little roadway here or there uh Leslie delsur was showing us earlier some video of of some homes that are right on the bay that have some of those issues that they're dealing with but Houston the city of really any you get a little bit off of the coast at all and there's going to be minimal impacts we're just looking at some isolated thunderstorms yeah so let's go to raisha real quick let's talk about the coast a little bit raisha because you were talking about that yesterday giving folks a heads up how to prepare for today especially if they're along that line that Coastline that's dry the good news for us as the track of Fran scine continued to shift to the east day by day our flood threat really started to go down so really for the rest of today likely less than an inch of rain for Houston and for our Coast communities but it's this area behind me that's going to have the huge significant threat for flooding we're talking about maybe 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated amounts up to a foot for parts of Louisiana including Morgan City where Sherman is New Iberia Baton Rouge even over towards New Orleans several inches of rain here's the other threat that we have of course we've got that tornado watch so significant flooding there but to answer your question not much rain expected for Houston but that's a good thing we've got the clouds we got the cooler temps a nice little breeds a few sprinkles a little bit of light rain it's actually refreshing because those 90s are going to be back soon so enjoy it all right raisha thank you so much we'll take one more here before we um take a breaking look at something else Maggie says do you think this will be our last hurricane scare this is I would assume a tough one to answer right raisha because this has been forecast to be a very busy hurricane season well Maggie I wish I could tell you that's it we were hit by Barrel nothing else is coming for the rest of the season but actually yesterday was the peak historically of hurricane season which is September 10th today is September 11th so this is usually the busiest most active period now I can't tell you for sure that we're going to have another system heading our way I can't tell you for sure that it's going to be extremely quiet I do think we will have several more systems develop between now and the end of hurricane season on November 30th but of course the big question is will they hit the Houston area that is what we will have to wait and see and watch for but there is always a chance that's why we tell you when there's a lull in the action that's the best time to make sure you're prepared make sure you know where your insurance papers are make sure they're protected if your house floods make sure you know your evacuation routes you always have to be ready because we all know especially with Barrel these storms can take a turn at the very last second and head our way fortunately this one took a turn to the east so we don't have to worry about Francine but back on July 8th we saw just how quickly things can go downhill when these storms do take a turn when we had those 100 m perow winds in some spots and also over a foot of rain for parts of Houston so yes it was a mess I know some of you are likely still cleaning up but for now nothing heading towards Houston but we'll have to watch it closely over the next few weeks and next few months all right Risha and JD thank you so much for helping us answer those questions from our viewers keep on coming with those questions we really want to get those answered for you cuz that's what you want to know we want to make sure you have the information you need all right thanks you too now we want to take it live back out to our reporter lesie delpor who's been in galvaston she is covering the storm surge near the West End that happened today what's going on now well right now it's pretty clear actually the sun is shining and you there are a few clouds out here and it's a nice breeze but this is typically what we see after a storm has come through so miss Jesse Anne here we met with her earlier and she showed us you know the lower half of her home here that was filled with water but since that last live shot that water has kind of gone down right but miss Jesse I want you to kind of explain to the viewers you know I explain to them what it looks like right now but last night when the storm was grazing through galston what did you see it came in real quiet but uh the tide was high before I went to bed about 10:30 by 4:30 a.m. and it was at least 17 Ines on ground uh level it went inside our Bay Bay camp which is our little fishing camp uh of course luckily I was was prepared um cuz we go through this anytime that there's a storm out there it doesn't even have to hit Galveston to get water High Tides wow so and you mentioned that it went into your fishing camp here can you kind of Le the way for us I want you I want to take you guys with us so you guys can see now this drawer right here was closed right so all that water and she's going to show you here in a minute but all that water came in under this door here and again tell us exactly how high this water got so if you notice we're pretty prepared for things like that to happen cuz the washer and dryer is up on this 2ft pedestal and everything else is put into the bathroom which is up 2ot so everything we see is it just seeping up the wall about 19 in so not a lot of damage if you know it's coming and you can get to it before anything happens yeah and explain to me this room was kind of cool you were telling me this off camera earlier explain to me what this room is and what would have happened if someone was in here and it's happened uh it's Terry's Bay camp so they camp out here in cots large cots and they fish all night sleep all day usually right off my pier and if they were sleeping in this had came in they'd have woke up to the 19 inches of water under their cots so you know they would have just probably been okay because I mean if you're camping you're camping yeah and if we can let's see if we can walk this way just a little bit I'm going to step in front of you here I apologize explain to me these water marks and explain to me kind of what this what this means here so yeah so when the water comes in it's going to seep up this is a cedar siding it's going to seep up so one inch is just as much damage does just as much damage as as one foot two foot so if it was inside sosing around any you're looking at that damage right there gotcha and again I kind of want you to explain now the first live shot that we did with you a few minutes ago the water was probably up to my ankles but now it's barely touching my toes so explain kind of how that water is going back out into the bay and what that is right so when I went to bed last night I saw the uh storm spinning spins in a clock counterclockwise and as it does it's taking the clean side of the water and throwing it up on our Bay as it passes Galveston it gets past us that those outer bands will drag the water out of our Bay so now it's taking the water back out of the bay and going on up North so that's how you see the water come in you see the water go out gotcha well miss Jesse Anne has lived here for so many years and she's an expert on the west end and Bay Harbor um what is your message I think to people when who may be new to the area you know unlike yourself when these kind of Storms Come Through whether it's a category 1 through four or even just a tropical storm or a depression true yeah you just need to make sure you are prepared so you need you know of course Waters uh something electrical or make sure you have lights and things like that if the electricity was to go out you would not want to be walking in this water but make sure your things are above ground because it can sneak up on you I don't purchase a lot of highend stuff because it won't last long either going to rust r or float away perfect well you heard it here first from the expert herself she's pretty calm she's lived here forever so this water when I first got here I was a little nervous even in my boots but for her she was out here in sandals so we're all good here like I said the weather is it's sunny there are a few clouds out here today but pretty calm and and whatnot here in in galvon back to you all in the studio Leslie can you please ask Jesse Anne if she'll stand by for a second we know that Louisiana is preparing for Francine we had a category one hurricane back in July can she give us a little bit of of what it was like there where you're standing when hurricane Barrel hit us a few months ago so you and I were talking earlier about hurricane Barrel right explain to me kind of what happened to your home here did you have this same water damage or water coming seeping in through your doors rather yes so hurricane or what was it tropical depression Alberto came first and Alberto came is a trocal depression so it's very slow and low it Rose sat here about 3 days and took away a lot of stuff that I didn't get up in time but when Al Alberto uh Barrel came Barrel came in really high and fast high winds and it was beating the water against the walls enough that it was knocking things off the shelves so even though you have them on shelves they could may not be safe um biggest tip is never have a gas can um because in the first storm a gas can tipped over and the whole downstairs smelled like gas until it recedes so it's very important that you keep your safety stuff out gotta and the water you said was a little bit higher during Barrel right okay about 19 inches wow about 19 inches you heard it here first 19 inches Caroline Anthony back to you all right that was a great uh a great report there uh really interesting from the bay side and a great description there from Jesse Anne as far as how that water first gets pushed in to galliston Bay and that rises up and and and um creates problems and then as that storm continues to move further towards Louisiana that counterclockwise Ro rotation the winds start to pull that water out of the bay so they might even end up at with like a lower tide when this is all over depending on how much winds that we have overall so just a great explanation there of what's happening in galvaston but it's also key to note there that things are re ceeding now things are starting to get minimal as far as any more impacts even along the coast and we've seen that with our Coastal flood warning being dropped to a coastal flood advisory at this point although it is extended all the way through Thursday at 7.m all right let's switch gears just a little bit no pun intended because I'm going to talk about hurricane gear test I always enjoy bringing you lots of great products hopefully getting you to think about your hurricane preparations as we kind of review something together but Heather Sullivan came to me uh in August and was like we ought to do something together and I thought that's a fantastic idea I'm glad you thought of that and here's what we did all right welcome to the hurricane gear test or maybe it's a Sullivan Smart Sense either way we're going to be fun talking about hurricane preparedness which is what I'm always excited about and you always like to talk about saving some money yeah you know we've all been through Barrel we know what it is now to go without power but you know budgets are so tight so we want to help you get ready for a lot less money and we're going to focus on the five categories that I always talk about when getting ready for hurricanes they they're kind of a short list but they can really kind of dive in deep it's going to start with food and water you're going to need a good light source like a flashlight or a lantern everyone has power needs the minimum for everybody is going to be a phone charger but some of us need even more than that and then a first aid kit yeah and let's dive into it cuz right now everybody's buzzing you know about these ultimate apocalypse dinner kits uh that you can get at Costco and other places uh they this one in particular ready wise has 50 different servings of Freez dried food sells for about $100 you can get it right now at uh Costco for about 80 uh but I also wanted to show you let's just do a little grocery shopping in case you don't want to have to add that's you have to add a lot of water to those things right sure sure water is definitely going to be a big Focus uh when you're dealing with dehydrated food I like the idea of just stocking up on some these more Trad traditional non- perishable items yeah so what I did was I went shopping for a family of four for 3 days and for the non-p perishable Essentials I spent about $57 and then right before the storm you can still go to the store again and get some perishables that will last a few days we're talking about apples oranges cucumbers Tomatoes things that can sit out I spent another $18 some bread um but so $75 got got me through three days yeah and remember don't be the last one in line at the score though cuz those not those those perishable items are also going to kind of thin out pretty quick but you did a great job uh on your shopping there and then you we you got a few other things here on a budget I I like the lights that you got because you've got a lot of them here and the batteries are included uh and it was uh pretty inexpensive yeah the batteries are in there it was about $12 gives you multiple lights you can set out around the house or use as you need all right and then next up was the phone charger this is a very economical way to get it done um you lose some of the convenience but again you're just going to have to figure out how to make it work when we have disaster right if you know if your car is working you can charge your phone in the car so these things run about six6 to $30 or you can buy an emergency cell phone charger for as low as eight on up to about a hundred all right and the last thing on the list was a first aid kit um I always encourage you to look for one that has scissors inside of it because it has a lot of other uses besides just medical needs when you have a diser and I also like first aid kits that have a cold compress so I'm impressed that you found one that has break it and it turns cold it's an instant ice pack how cool is that totally right we're ready we're ready for any emergency here we've got a full list of all of these ideas for you on fox26 houston.com with Sullivan smartsense I'm Heather Sullivan and if you want to look for my hurricane gear test make sure and go to YouTube and search for meteorologist John Dawson all right let's get back to Hurricane Francine because we're really just a few hours away from that land fall likely going to be very close to the Morgan City area New Iberia it is going to be rolling up into some of these locations eventually Baton Rouge and New Orleans will be pretty hard hit as well we've got a tornado watch in place you can see all of this super heavy rain those darker colors indicating some of the very heavy burst of tropical downpours in this and this of course continues to be what is a part of that eye wall that's going to be some of the most intense thunderstorms and notice it getting very close to shore so I think over the next couple of hours we can officially say that Francine has made landfall so we are monitoring that closely but already starting to see multiple flood warnings flood advisories and there's that threat for tornadoes here is the latest advisory with hurricane Francine as of 300 p.m 90 M hour winds it is still a category one but it is very close to a category two if it were to just get a little bit stronger and get up to about 96 milph it would be a category 2 hurricane so there's still a possibility that could happen over the next one to two hours so let's put this into motion and you'll see that as we go into the future Francine shifts to the north and likely makes that landfall over the next few hours likely by 5 6 p.m. by 7 p.m. still forecast to be a 90 mph category 1 hurricane as it is getting very close to Lafayette Baton Rouge and it should pass to the west of New Orleans but it's still going to be a big rain maker for New Orleans of course there's going to be that storm surge risk along the coast and that threat for widespread damaging wind gust similar to what we saw here with Barrel in fact it may be a little bit worse because this hurricane is a tad bit stronger of course as we go through the next couple of days it will push farther Inland weakening to a tropical storm by Thursday morning and then up toward WS Memphis kind of falling apart and losing steam as it is over land now and it kind of winds down fairly quickly by Thursday evening and Friday down to a tropical depression and then a Remnant low but we've still got a lot of impacts to talk about in fact FR scene poses a huge flood threat for really the majority of the lower half of Louisiana even Southern portions of Mississippi that's where we're going to have the biggest threat for some of that Heavy Rain maybe as much as 5 to 10 10 in of rain so of course when we look at the flash flood risk notice that the Houston area not in a flash flood risk at all but just hop over to Louisiana and we go to the red and the red is not a good place to be because that is a super high moderate category three out of four risk for that significant flash flooding so that does include New Iberia Baton Rouge New Orleans and even portions of Southern Mississippi in fact that goes all the way up to Jackson Mississippi iipp so this is certainly going to be a tropical system a hurricane with widespread impacts impacting Millions across multiple States as far as that forecast rain notice that swath of purple here getting close to New Orleans now that's up to 10 inches of rainfall but if you hop back to the Houston area we're in the dark blue and that is less than an inch so there's a big gradient from what we're expecting here to what folks in Louisiana along the coast are expecting and farther Inland that's where the big flood threat will be off to our East so of course we're monitoring things closely we do still have a coastal flood advisory for our coastal regions for the Southeast Texas area but we are not expecting any significant impacts notice the wind gust potential Baton Rouge New Orleans Hurricane force winds can't be ruled out so it's going to be a mess there of course we are tracking it closely as FR scine will likely be making landfall over the next one to two hours all right raisha thank you so much let's get back to these questions this one coming from Casey it says is this a unique path for a hurricane what pushed it towards Louisiana this is a great question Casey I've seen a lot of folks saying similar things on social media right cuz everybody was kind of nervous what is this storm going to do especially after Hurricane barrel and when that made impact so let's get back to JD and Risha who wants to take this one guys yeah I could talk about that a little bit I think I was going to say me me me but you can go ahead all right jie go ahead well uh yeah I was just going to say the answer question no I wouldn't say this is a unique path uh for a hurricane to take there were certainly some steering components that uh sort of led up to this when you've got a system that forms in the Gulf um there is a good chance this time of the year that it could make that track that that uh sort of uh Southwest to Northeast again those are from very general terms track and the the reason being because uh cold fronts that are coming in uh in September if you'll remember you know the end of last week Friday we had that front come in and really leave us with a spectacular looking weekend here in Southeast Texas well that boundary around and didn't really stay a front really that long but it kind of gave something for that storm for Francine to bump up against and kind of move a little bit in that direction so not a unique path but maybe not the most common path either very interesting JD thank you for that explanation now we have a question here from Brandon were you surprised how quick Francine formed in the golf let's give this one to meteorologist Risha shade well actually Brandon I wasn't really surprised at all in fact we were thinking Francine would kind of get her act together even quicker because Francine is moving over the Gulf of Mexico and all season long those Gulf of Mexico Waters have been super warm at points almost abnormally warm well into the 80s water temps in the low 99s at times the water is very warm it's very deep and it acts as fuel for these tropical system so when you get a storm a tropical depression tropical storm or hurricane developing in the Gulf it usually doesn't take long to kind of blow up and get going but friend seen was actually interacting with a frontal boundary that had kind of been draped near the Gulf Coast for several days so I think that kind of hindered it from getting a little bit stronger quicker but once it started to get its act together and tighten up and develop that well defined Center of circulation it really got going so we saw from yesterday today it's strengthen quite a bit that pressure was dropping and now winds are up to 90 miles per hour at times the National Hurricane Center has forecasted it to become a 100 mile hour Category 2 hurricane so we're not surprised but like I said usually when you get these systems developing in the Gulf it doesn't take much that water is very warm it acts as that fuel for for these systems and they can develop and grow and maintain themselves for quite a long period of time and cause a lot of issues for portions of the Gulf Coast historic year when it talks about these storms and the forecast of storms to develop out there in the Gulf so now let's get back to our Sherman the cell remember he's in Morgan City one of the places in that path of the storm raisha was just mentioning things picking up there Sherman yeah actually Anthony in the last um couple of minutes since you and I were speaking uh winds are picking up Cloud a little bit more cloud cover I'll step out just to kind of show you now I'm not trying to mimic a really famous weather guy from a different Channel okay but I'm just trying to show you that uh the the conditions are definitely starting to deteriorate um we're seeing some winds pick up these trees a little bit uh take a look across the street though you know those those boards uh board you know businesses boarded up like that that is very common especially in this part of Louisiana so remember what I showed you earlier uh the aaaaya it's on the other side of this wall right here Floodgate is to the right um it's about somewhere between 15 to 20 feet high uh we've been seeing this garbage can getting some getting some wind picked up so it'll make a little banging sound kind of you know increase the anxiety a bit um but to be honest with you this is what was expected in this area a lot of people are prepared for it we've been seeing the Morgan City police Police Department passing by making their rounds making sure everybody's good the biggest thing though I forgot this I buried the lead there is a curfew now in effect in this Parish in this area uh starting uh at 5:00 until 7:00 tomorrow morning so I know that was a question that Caroline had earlier if there was a curfew in this particular area uh in this Parish uh there is a curfew from 5:00 p.m. until 700 p.m. tomorrow morning that's just to make sure that anybody that's on the road or out in the out are essential to being out here so First Responders people you know just making sure that things are good and they have the authority to be outside so uh that was a question that you guys asked earlier and it has since changed uh since we last spoke back to you and what about um like Louisiana as a whole um phison has the governor said anything in terms of any declarations yeah so um in the last couple of days uh not only did he uh declare a State DEC declaration but then he he officially asked um U President Biden for assistance in this um in in this um uh weather event so that's just to make sure that things are in place to where if it does get bad uh then the federal uh systems will already be in place so the governor has requested that um as far as if it's been received I'm not sure I will check on that because I don't want to tell you something that's not true um but the the state declaration is already in place and he has already asked forcation from the White House Sherman I I have another question for you not sure if you know this at this time were there any mandatory evacuations put in place for new Orland or Baton Rouge or any of the other areas that are going to be getting the brunt of Francine So Yesterday um before the storm tracked more East yesterday uh the Cameron Parish area was under evacuation mandatory evacuation that place was a ghost town by yesterday morning um because that is an area that got hit hard really hard during previous hurricanes hurricane Laura that's closer towards the Lake Charles area where where C Cameron Parish is that was in route to here coming from Houston um but in this particular area no mandatory evacuations in this particular area Caroline let you go here one one last question the area where you're standing is is that area likely going to see several inches or feet of water how bad do we think that that area where you are in Morgan City along the coast is going to get well um definitely um wind storm surge is a concern localized flooding definitely a concern where we are particularly uh they won't see uh that huge of a of a of a a problem because these floodgates right here these 15 to 20 inch 20 feet tall floodgates are right here uh but in low-lying areas because it is an area that's surrounded by water there's a couple of Lake uh Lakes not too far away and and and the Gulf of Mexico is not that far from here either those areas could possibly be problematic for sure we'll be checking in on those and uh keeping up to speed with all of that all right Sherman to sell about 60 8 miles south of Lafayette in Morgan City just awaiting for the very close arrival of hurricane Francine and it's looking to be a category one storm so Sherman please be careful out there and we'll be checking back in with you as the day goes on all right we bringing in Misha shade now let's all right Sherman thank you but bring you back in here because right now category one yes but the fuel is definitely there in the water as far as it potentially getting to a category two yeah the actual National Hurricane Center forecast has been wobbling back and forth between Francine making landfall as either a strong category 1 hurricane at 90 mes per hour or a lower-end category 2 hurricane at 100 miles per hour so regardless it's going to cause widespread damage whether it's a strong cat one weaker Cat 2 it's going to be a big flood threat there's the storm surge threat like I said there's a tornado watch so multiple tornadoes possible just a lot of concerns for a big portion of the Louisiana Gulf Coast I mean we're talking what was that 10 mes per hour between Cat 1 and Cat 2 so that that that's really a wash and but the impact is still there that's right on the saffer Simpson scale actually a category one would be from 74 miles per hour to 95 miles per hour so six miles per hour more C right and Risha just from looking at the map where Lafayette is New Orleans you can't see Baton Rouge on this model here but I'm not too familiar with Louisiana but it seems like this is a large range of area that is going to feel some real heavy impacts from Francine right I showed a map earlier that showed the tropical storm force wind potential and it was spreading almost across just about all of the Louisiana Gulf Coast so that's wind gusts around 39 to 73 miles per hour of course where the core of that eyewall pushes in that's where we could have those wind gusts of hurricane for so that would be 74 miles per hour or greater so that's where we're likely going to have the most intense wind damage we're talking about structural damage widespread power outages similar to what we experienced in the middle of hurricane barrel and I think it's just from going through barrel and just knowing what hurricanes are like here in Houston assuming it's similar in Louisiana people's lives are really at risk here and especially with the flooding we see it here in Houston they're about to go through a similar situation that we went through in July and that that's very unsettling and it's it's a lot to look out for that's right back with barel over a million folks around Houston without power at one point it was a rough go as we all know listen now and I got to tell you guys on social media you probably seen it on your social media as well right when I tell you people were just listening to every word we had to say about this storm because Risha like you guys mentioned we got that cold front that kind of bumped this storm this direction which you know for some folks they weren't paying attention to the weather they just kind of saw it initially coming towards us but that bump in that coldfront made a big difference yeah I was a little concerned a little nervous over the weekend when I saw that initial cone of uncertainty come out I was thinking oh my goodness are we going to get hit twice in one season by two hurricanes please no but of course it started to shift East we had that trough sitting there and that kind of helped to pick it up and take it on out of here kind of get that little wobble wobble move It shake it wobble wobble shake it shake it and it's like we haven't even recovered from Barrel fully yet there's still power lines down where I live there still damaged to roofs and buildings I'm still not back where I am supposed to live because of Dage so having that threat over the weekend of this potentially coming to Houston we're so thankful it's not but obviously we're right our Good Fortune of course bad news for Louisiana so our thoughts are certainly with everyone dealing with hurricane FR scene in Louisiana but of course like I said it's a fortunate thing for us it did miss us this time but we've still got a little bit more of hurricane season to get through it's all the way through the end of November so don't let your guard down we got missed by Francine but there could be more so keep it here of course we're going to keep you updated on the hurricane season all right so JD also standing by here working with us we continue to follow Fran Cen JD I got a question I just popped up as Risha was talking here talk about the size of this storm like in in your expertise over the years is this a larger storm or is it just one of those more small compact dense storms moving through I you know I'm going to call it a medium storm and not to try to just sort of avoid the question or anything but it's it's not overly large and again it's not super compact either uh in its size uh when we get this close to a landfall the National Hurricane Center begins to give hourly updates and so we haven't had a chance really to share this 3 pm update as far as what is happening right now with Francine so want to take a minute to talk about it a little bit and we're going to start with discussion mostly on the winds that are out there and you can see with our Graphics that Inland we're not looking at uh hurricane for winds right now we're definitely looking at some uh winds that we're looking at as far as being a little bit of a problem I'm going to go ahead and ask Max 3 is the storm the graphics that I want to look at if we can see those great you're going to be able to see those winds uh coming in in that counterclockwise rotation New Orleans right now with sustained winds at 22 miles an hour uh and then we're looking at Lafayette at about 14 miles an hour what I want to talk about as far as the size goes is right now that eye that you see there really getting close to its landfall and it's sort of a larger eye has 40 miles out from the center our hurricane force winds so you the very center of that uh of eye and then you were to go out 40 miles you would be able to feel those hurricane force winds in other words those 75 mph winds now if you were to go 115 miles and that's substantially further uh that's where you would have the tropical storm first winds that extend out 100 15 miles so talking a little bit about that size we've got 115 mile per uh 115 miles worth of tropical storm winds 40 mil worth of hurricane force winds but I want to show you some of these winds that we're beginning to see here as this storm moves through from the National Hurricane Center they've got a couple reports there uh one of the oil platforms and it might be that one that we have labeled there is the shell ship sha uh that might be the one that they're referencing but one of the oil platforms that was on the east side of the center recently had 74 mph sustained winds with a gust of 92 miles an hour now that is not at the surface that's up off of the ground so those numbers are not exactly what you would see if we were standing there uh but also there was another spot out there that uh near the the the coast uh Eugene Island that also had a 54 mph wind and had a peak gust at 70 miles an hour so as I mentioned they'll continue to keep these updated the other thing just to sort of let our friend Sherman Dell know uh they've officially identified this Center being about 60 miles away from Morgan City Louisiana and remember those hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles and so that's just something to kind of keep in mind I think Sherman is going to be very close to those hurricane force winds once this begins to make landfall now of of course as We Know once a system begins to make landfall it falls apart very quickly which is going to be a good thing but what doesn't stop very quickly is the rainfall so you could see our our weather prediction center giving us as excessive rainfall in other words flooding threats High possibilities of that's going to happen for portions of Louisiana extending into Mississippi as well and we're going to continue to see these storm the storm make its way onto land and will also bring that storm surge we have that storm surge warning basically even uh around New Orleans we have this storm surge warning that's anywhere that we expect a lifethreatening uh storm surge that's three feet or higher is where we're looking at that as a possibility our satellite imagery really kind of gives us an idea to sort of try to pick out that hole this is our visible satellite so a lot of times we have all the colors and everything on there this imagery here is basically if you were just up in space and you could visibly look down this is what you would be seeing right now so as the sun sets we'll lose this visibility but you can see the little bit of lighter area that shows where the eye would be so it's not super well defined but you can kind of see down a little bit more to the surface there on where that eye is it's a little bit lopsided overall as far as the rainfall is concerned and we take a look at that tropical satellite as we see that beginning to move forward a little bit more and the radar really gives us an idea of where those storms are and this is very close to making its landfall you can see with our radar imagery that eye that's taking place this is getting very close to making its landfall The Heavy Rain Rain beginning to make its way in as well and we'll continue to keep an eye the steering factors that are involved in this are really going to be not as important right now things remain very clo quiet for us over here in the Houston area and I just wanted to pop up that forecast track one more time before I wrap up as far as where we're expecting this system to go um with its path that it's taking this kind of gives us that idea that it'll be making its landfall very soon as a strong category one hurricane almost a category to Hurricane as it begins to make its landfall so we're really kind of preparing for the last uh hour or so before Francine makes its landfall let's go ahead back and check back in with the folks in the studio all right JD thank you so much so we keeping a very close eye on Francine as you were if you're mentioning joining us earlier this is a live look now at Morgan City our Sherman the cell there is on the ground and remember this community is under a curfew that has been issued here since 11:00 this morning as you can see no one inside folks really heating the warning here and hunkering down or if they have the luxury of doing so maybe have found other places to go to stay with friends or family family members as the storm makes its way through this community but again overall Caroline we are C thinking about everyone there in Louisiana absolutely flooding rainfall storm surge damaging winds and even tornado threats are all a concern as we are just about a half hour away from Francine actually making its landfall we'll be continuing to cover the conditions in Louisiana as the evening goes on make sure to follow us on fox26houston.com you can also download our fox26 weather app and of course you can watch us by downloading Fox local for free on your smart TV thanks so much for joining us for our hurricane Francine coverage we'll see you in a bit [Music]