U.S., Netanyahu and wider war? Latino Vote 2024. Presidential debates

happy Sunday uh this is in the company of cards weekend edition uh my name is Erica Robinson I'm the author of the language of leoner as well as the deck called Erica's letter of Hope and um please like share subscribe all of that um I'm going to look at three questions I think today unless more happened to occur uh to me as we're talking as I'm talking but the first one the first thing I want to say is um you know how sorry I am about the hostages that were you know just missed being rescued uh but were instead slain by Hamas um you know may may those young people people's memory be a blessing as they say um uh but even more um you know I I want to look at the question of war and Israel and Hamas and the Palestinians and Netanyahu um in light of this recent horrific um act so I guess the question is I think I would like to look specifically at Netanyahu Netanyahu is of course not American jewry he is not uh even Israeli jeury he is he is the prime minister of Israel he is um beset by opposition in his own country he he is uh he's kind of like what Trump Junior Israel's version of trump uh we know that he would prefer for Trump to be reelected uh we also know or suspect that he will want to keep uh war going we know because he has refused to negotiate with um Hamas for the release of the rest of the hostages or the bodies of the hostages or you know now Hamas are bad guys I mean there there's no two ways about it um also didn't everybody's mother tell them that two wrongs don't make a right uh and the Palestinian people are being oppressed on a pretty Grand scale in my opinion uh during the uh most recent um news conference or that uh or interview that Harris did with Dana Bash Dana you could have done a little better with your questions but we'll leave that alone Harris was asked about her stance in relation to the this Israeli Palestinian situation and she first and unequivocally uh voiced support for Israel's right to exist I mean all people should have a right to exist right so okay uh that's that's good uh I I I thought that her comment about Palestinians deserving a Homeland that's safe and secure and peaceful and is of their own determination felt a little bit kind of tacked on I don't it didn't feel as the support for that did not seem as vociferous as the as the support for Israel I'm just saying now she is the vice president the current vice president we know that Biden is Israel Israel Israel Israel all day every day uh in the early stages when he was asked about the plight of the Palestinians and how they were being genocided I mean I'm just saying uh he he said these were the words out of his mouth he said I don't believe it wait what you don't believe it um it's a very uh the the whole subject is brought for more reasons than I can go into here if you go to my substack um which you can uh find uh under the name in the company of cards um if you search back you'll see that I I did do a substack article about this um a while back uh where I went into a little bit more depth but here I here's here's what I want to know first question will be um will there will Netanyahu be what is netanyahu's trajectory between now and election day here so between now and uh two months from now November so I'm just gonna cut the deck and I'm going to use the older man to represent n yaho and I want to see what his tra trajectory is and that means basically you know what are his intentions um what will be his fate at that point you know things could be still status quo I don't know but this will stand for Netanyahu and I'm taking the two cards that precede him and putting them to the left and taking the two cards that would come after him and putting them to the right and then I think I'm going to draw a clarifier or two or three on the last couple of cards okay so we have the garden we have mice we have Netanyahu we have the dog and the final card in the line of five is clouds okay so I'm G to put those back and then talk about the line and then go over the um clarifiers so this is the public and I'm going to say this is the Israeli public um they are really nervous anxious as they should be not just about the war but about what netanyahu's intentions are is he going to create a wider War because that might serve to keep him in power longer um you know everybody's sons and daughters get conscripted in Israel so that's that's a scary thought um will War widen will War continue so the public is really nervous about him um here he is and then very interesting that we have the dogs and we have clouds uh because we're in this election cycle here he doesn't know who who his friends are going to be we know that Biden is on his side but uh Harris may be less of a known quantity um you know America will always uh advocate for Israel's right to exist I mean of course but what will that mean will that mean countenancing genocide of Palestinians the the the jury out on on on how um how friendly and what what kind of friendliness will be constituted in a in a Harris Administration so I decided to pull clarifiers on the dog and the clouds so remember the dog is um Israel's allies of whom we are the primary right and the clarifiers that I got for that are are the child the sun and the snake let me say that come November really come January because that's when we have the inauguration there will be a new sheriff in town in the United States I posit that it will be Harris this is someone new and it will be Crystal Clear that's the sun Crystal clear no hiding behind the fact that this Alliance is problematic um for those of you who don't know I'm just going to say in a nutshell this people of color who have the experience of Oppression are always going decide with people who are oppressed this is why there was a strong uh Jewish black um affinity and connection in let's say the 60s I remember that when I was a child um but you you cannot be both the oppressor and the oppressed so I think that Harris may you the Netanyahu stance in a little bit more nuanced way than Biden does with a little you know nuanced more twists and turns again with Biden it's just we're all in for Israel we're all in for Israel Palestinians who that's seems to be Biden's stance that's less Harris Harris's stance because she's a woman she's a woman of color she knows what people of color think about this whole thing you know you can't be the oppressed and the oppressor at the same time so Netanyahu is well aware that trouble could be on the horizon for him when the new sheriff comes in town and when the US Israel's al Ally reassesses what true allyship does mean should mean ought to mean okay uh the then I pulled clarifiers on clouds because he's worried about this you know clouds are about doubts you know uh this is Netanyahu saying I know I got Trump in my pocket and Biden's kind of been sitting in there too I don't know I'm I'm doubtful about whether I can rope in um Harris to the same extent so the clarifiers for that doubt are the Scythe the bear and the moon now a scythe is about decisions he's deciding that he wants to side with Trump this is always my card for trp um it could be my card for Netanyahu too if you think about it I mean he it's the card for a narcissist someone who has self-interest primary and we have the moon which is reputation now when I look at these clarifiers I can mirror the clouds with the moon I think netanyahu's reputation will continue to be in a period of decline um I think that his allegiance to Trump will become more and more clear and will undercut his uh reputation even further should the election go in the direction that I think it's going to go which is against Trump uh now I can mirror the very first card I pulled which was the garden this is people the public with the moon and I think netanyahu's reputation is goingon to take a hit again Netanyahu is not Israel and there are a lot of Israel and a lot of American Jews who do not like what what uh netanyahu's policy is but there's going to be a re-evaluation by the public of of Israel's reputation of netanyahu's reputation of of the degree to which we're in for a penny in for a pound with whatever it is that Israel wants to do so I would say um watch this space um I think that Netanyahu is is ultimately self-interested does not want Harris um to be Not Elected uh and is holding out hope that Trump will pull it out of the hat to a hatrick whatever you want to call it um but I think that netanyahu's and you don't have to be a reader to see this his uh his star is on the Wayne so okay uh and you know what why don't we look at Harris in relation to Israel in relation to this question of Israel am I am I imagining that her stance is less buddy buddy through thick or thin no matter what you do we're good with it than Biden's I'm you know maybe that's just wishful thinking so let's ask the cards what is uh Harris's stance on on Israel and what we owe them in terms of friendship and Allegiance so this time I'm gonna look for Harris and she pops right up so she's right here only one card preceded her so I'm going to put that to the left of her and then I'm going to pull three cards to the right of her to make up our five cards and I'm going to pull a couple of clarifiers uh on the the last two cards okay so the the the card that this comes before Harris is the scales and I here's Harris she's the second card so really this is very interesting this this is the card for cost benefit analysis you know what kind of stance serves the United States of course it serves the United States to be friends with Israel of course but does it serve the United States to Discount their treatment of the Palestinians who to people of color in this country anyway are people of color oppressed Harris will be a assessing that okay so I like that in the center very interesting we have Clover now this is making me think we're looking at at at Harris's point of view um he may you know Netanyahu may be more inclined to uh w a broker a peace deal with Harris in charge that would be a lucky thing people have to talk to each other that's how Wars end is that there are there are peace talks okay uh the card that comes after The Clover is the snake which tells us that this is a thorny problem followed by the book so I don't think Harris has yet figured out how she's gonna handle Israel I can mirror I can mirror the first card and here it's that scales card how do I balance our interests AC against their interests um you know the constituencies that I have here in the US um versus uh our obligations um historically uh to Israel how do I balance that I don't know this is her saying I don't know uh and then we have her mirroring the snake this is a thorny problem this is very thorny okay so I drew some clarifiers on the snake and uh I got the cross the Sun and then Crossroads so this snake is is really a problem that will keep her up at night probably already has kept her up at night I mean these poor hostages that were just killed it's just stunningly sad and horrific uh that's this card it's a card of pain um the sun is it makes it clear that another path has to be found a path to peace has to be found Crossroads is about choices Alternatives whatever we're doing it's not working so it's very clear to her that A New Path to peace has to be found and then you know this last card in the original line of five was that she didn't know so I thought well let's pull some clarifiers on that and I got the fox the anchor and then the dog she's smart despite what 45 would have you believe uh Harris knows how to deal with uh the international situation and with world leaders they will not be having their way with her oh 45 and his people are just disgusting but anyway she's this is the card for an expert someone who who's who's smart and knows um knows all of the the ins and outs of things and how to balance and then anchor is great um I think that what she will be doing is finding a way to to balance things to say it is possible to be on the side of Israel and to be a friend to the Palestinians at the same time she will be more open to achieving that balance than Biden is so I like that I think that's great again it does not C suit netanyahu's purposes because to him the Palestinians are anathema I mean um 45 uses the word Palestinian as as a um a pejorative you know as a dig as a dis as an insult that's not what Harris will do so she will balance interests uh more evenly than have been balanced to date all right that's enough about that question okay uh the next question that I want to look at was um a reader's uh suggestion and they wanted to me to look at the Latino vot as we move forward from September to November so where is the Latino vote now you know Latino is is kind of a catchall umbrella term um but people say the black vote right so I guess we can say the Latino vote I'm G to pull three cards s uh three for Harris three for 45 and just see which line looks better in terms of getting the Latino vote on board okay well it's pretty clear this is Harris and the Latino vote we've got the house we've got the birds and we've got the fox people see her as an expert including on issues that are of concern to the Latino Community whether it's jobs whether it's housing whether it's um uh immigration she pretty she's pretty tough on immigration I will say that but then there's a large contingent of the Hispanic I'm sorry the Latino community that is also a little bit hardcore on the immigration question right uh they're more conservative on that so so that would be an appeal I do think there's a lot of buzz in that Community about her because that's the birds and this is the White House just saying so I think she will do well um in with the Latino vote uh this is 45 in the Latino vote now I did not orchestrate these cards to come out the way they came out they this is you know this is a block there is a disconnect between him and this voter voter ship the Latino vote the Latino electorate there is a there is a wedge between him and them that will cause him in the end pain because they're G to go another way done and dusted that's it okay um so that's that question hope I answered it he will not win anybody's Latino vote uh Harris will uh and then the third question I thought I'd ask this will be brief um because you know Sunday it's a weekend holiday weekend happy Labor Day um following hard upon uh Labor Day weekend will be the debate between 45 and Harris it's h scheduled for September 10th assuming 45 doesn't come up with some reason to back out of it which could happen uh so I'm going to pull three cards again and this will be on debate performance so again I'm gonna pull three that will be the first three on how Harris will do on the debate stage maybe I'll even pull more five and then I'll pull five for how 45 will do on the debate stage as you're aware I'm sure um the rules are going to be the same as they were the last time around which is that the microphone will be muted uh for the person who is not meant to speak um so we know that and we also know that there will be no live audience just as there was no live audience the first time okay really interesting cards um and I'm going to say that um this doesn't necessarily look like a pick a walk in the park for either candidate so for Harris we have the moon we have the ring we have the coffin we have the bouquet and we have the mountain really interesting so let's think about what that might me the Moon is about reputation now you know a debate is a particular genre it's a particular kind of format um you know you're asked questions you're meant to respond to the questions that's it um all candidates have that tendency to obfuscate to kind of skirt around a question or you know instead of answering the actual question that they were asked they'll a answer the question that they would prefer to answer that kind of thing so but here we have this Moon and it is mirroring the mountain so I'm not convinced that this debate will move Harris forward in any appreciable substantive ways people who are for her will still be for her people who are against her will still be against her um you know some people argue that the the the for the the debate concept itself is a little bit um Antiquated you know a little bit outdated for modern political times I don't know but I don't think it will advance her in any particular way however uh we have the ring which mirrors the bouquet I think she will be just as her supporters expect her to be uh you know Dependable um this breath of fresh air this gift that came to us on a Sunday afternoon if you recall a few weeks ago so I I think that they will feel okay about it now the interesting card is the card in the center because on the one hand well you know what I think I think that it's kind of literally what it looks like I think she will feel Boxed In by The Format um God knows not in the way that Biden was boxed in because he he was boxed in for other reasons but I think she'll be boxed feel Boxed In by The Format even though the microphones are going to be off she'll be able to hear his loud mouth while she's trying to talk um I don't I mean one of the rules that was in place for the last one was that there was going to be no Real Time fact checking which was really unfortunate I'm assuming that that rule is still in place if it's still in place it gives Trump the opportunity to just spin his stupidity stupid nonsense and you know and then there she is left to be the voice of sanity and make sense out of things or make her own case I think she might feel boxed in just by virtue of the format it's not a make or break I don't think I think that her supporters will be supportive and will feel that she did well I don't think it will advance her cause with anybody who's on the fence or with anybody who's against her and I think she will be glad to get off the stage when the 90 minutes or however long it is is done now let's look at 45 we have CL clouds we have sun we have mice we have heart and we have the wiip okay so I will say that as kind of um law as her cards look you know it's like no no wins no losses for her for him it looks not nearly as good even as that his confusion his lack of mental Clarity will be clear as a bell it'll be obvious he because he's not debating Biden will be a nervous wreck now of course when he's nervous it means he feels cornered these are mice but pretend that we're pretend that they're rats rats who are cornered tend to be at their ugliest because they're trying to save their lives he's trying to save his political life so he's going to be you know confused it's going to be very clear all that's going to make him very nervous entertainment purposes only I think this is anatomic the anatomical heart don't be surprised if he doesn't have some sort of situation arise I don't know like he gets um out of breath maybe he has an episode of arhythmia or of um you know angena or just you know um heart issues heart issues I think that could happen here uh because for all his bravado his brain can't keep up with what's going on around him in his life and certainly on that debate stage and his physical self I suspect May um pay a price and maybe in a really public way you know like I don't know they have to like immediately go to Commercial and then when they come back from commercial there's only one person on the stage and it's not him so again these are cards this is energy that I'm reading I'm reading what I see not what I want to have happen because I wouldn't wish that on anybody but I wonder whether there will be some physical event um heart related um due to the stress of the day and his inability to get his words out um and to think clearly that will cause him to have to um I think he'll also repeat himself a lot think about what a whip is it's a repetitive thing whip whip whip he may repeat himself a lot um but I do think he'll feel a little heart stuff going on and I hope that they have a doctor on the debate set just saying um so that's what I have for today uh as always if you've not liked or subscribed or shared please do all of the above I'd appreciate it um I would love if you were to ask questions of political nature or to do with culture or um race Society anything there's nothing that's not that's not um uh beyond my card's ability to to look at so if you have questions please just leave them in the comments and I'll be glad to to look at them for you this week have a great Labor Day weekend and I'll see you ear you next week bye-bye