Can the Chicago Cubs win 90 games in 2024?

Intro let's talk about the schedule here we go you are locked on Cubs your daily Chicago Cubs podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every [Music] day you are locked on Cubs part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day alongside Sam olber I'm Matt cozy Sam and I are lifelong fans taking our passion into a discussion with you when all things Cubs thank you for being part of the show and making lock on Cubs your first listen today and the best way you can help us grow the show is to listen every day like the video and comment anything below let us know in the comments section how many games do you think the Cubs win this season just drop the win total in there if you want to add a comment you can but this is a great opportunity to do a little bit of roll call here during opening week if you've never commented before uh this is a great opportunity you just drop a number of wins you think the Cubs are going to uh get this season today's episode is presented by prize picks the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to priz picks.com lockdown MLB and use code locked on MLB that's locked on MLB all lowercase for a first deposit match up to $100 Sam it's a rainy and dreary day in the Chicagoland area but my attitude I have to say is you know very sunny and bright regarding baseball this week well I'm glad to hear it that was Schedule cheesy fantastic So today we're going to talk on the show about the the schedule for the Cubs and later in the show Joe Sheen is going to join us from the his own newsletter the Joe Sheen newsletter and Joe is going to be on because he has a notable prediction Cubs at 96 and 66 on the campaign have not seen something like that anywhere from a respected baseball person I think it's going to be uh good to have Joe on and hear what he has to say hear what he likes a lot apparently uh about the Cubs so the April schedule Sam starts in March it ends in May as a three gamer to open against the Rangers then the last series April spills over into May when the Cubs are in Queens to face the Mets so I have 32 games here in front of me how would you like to go about this because ultimately I have to say and admit this 32 games is difficult yeah well first of all it's break them down yes um I don't have him in front of me uh but I think it's something along the lines of uh you know so it could be kind of an impromptu trivia Tuesday well I think well I think it's something along go ahead of Texas on the road Texas very that's correct very difficult home Colorado should be a series win at at minimum um home Dodgers uh then I believe they go they go to the West Coast is it's something along the lines of San Diego uh and then and then I know they play what is it like Mariners Diamondbacks or Diamondbacks that's correct Mariners Diamondbacks then they come home have a series against what is it the Marlins and Astros that's correct yeah you just got two more yeah and I don't remember the last Red Sox ATS at Red Sox at Mets so honestly I mean you know I was talking about this with my cousin um is that Scott or yeah yeah no that's he's pretty much the only cousin I'll talk about baseball with um and you know he made a pretty good point to me that that I already knew but but it kind of resonated there aren't many horrible teams this year so like these blocks of of schedules are going to look harder than they normally do I mean let's name the teams that that we could say hey that's going to be a cakewalk series uh um Colorado at home not in chorus we know we have bad luck there uh Washington's not a good club Oakland's not a good club the white socks are not a good club you know I don't know I don't think Kansas City's going to be a roll over Detroit's not going to be a roll over Pittsburgh's not you know what I mean yeah while there might be four 100 lost teams again then there's a huge Bunch that are all together yeah and a lot a lot of teams competing for that wild card situation and so ton you know it is a tough 32 game stretch um I'm interested to hear kind of what you're looking to see out of that and I'll tell what I'm looking to see and you know there are some breaks that come later on in the season I mean you know I already mentioned I teased on the show the other day there's an Oakland and Washington situation in September um there's aent yeah no there's G to be there's going to be some times where they could crank out some wins but but April's going to be tough all right so as with all things Series Wins early in the season I do tend to be on the conservative side and with this opener against the Rangers this weekend it's a three gamer right and I think the Cubs need to take one game the defending Champions they're plastered with gold they're inside it's loud the crowd loves it the Cubs have a new m i mean there's a lot of Buzz around the series yeah to me it feels a little bit like like Thursday night's game Sam I think is going to give me London Vibes a lot of pp a lot of circumstance all eyes on the game all that makes sense they're the only game in that slot the only game uh and the Rangers have a ridiculous batting order Yep they're all healthy I have to go one out of three yep I have to yeah I think for me going series by series is so difficult yeah you know it's like obviously if they go one and two in Texas the Panic Mode's not on um if they go two in one great for me it's just the entire month of April I think it's important to come out of that 500 okay and I have 17 and 15 in front of me but 16 and 16 I think is is very fair what series wins do you feel really good about in April let's see so I got Rockies being a sweep yeah that's which is generous by the way it's it's not easy to come in and sweep a team the second series of the year it's cold it's it's not going to be that easy right next week we'll play a game Rocky's player or I don't know US senator or something like that uh let's see I have a series win at the fathers two out of three San shout out to Teddy Kennedy one one of the longest lasting senators of all time do you have a serious win against the Padres I do I don't know you know uh it's so difficult I think on that I think that West Coast trip will Define the month I only have them winning one against the Mariners and one against the Diamondbacks well be listen with the way we've played against Arizona one would be a win right I mean they they just completely ruined our season last year yeah they were like uh like a horror film out there yeah you know see I Seattle will be interesting I don't know you know I really don't I think I think it's to me I look at the month of April in a very baseball cliche way okay you're not going to win anything don't just don't lose anything all right well 16 and 16 would do that yeah don't don't go 12 and 20 oh boy you know and then you're we we hit and then all we have then we just hear about the Reds forever yeah you know don't just stay afloat win the games you're supposed to I think opening weekend is a weird weekend remember the the Chicago White Socks remember that team yes I do I think they won their or no they they opened up in four with four in Houston last year defending champs and they split that series and they end joen has the white socks at 53 wins they they ended up being one of the worst teams in baseball so opening weekend a lot of Randomness could happen it's a mirage yeah so you know maybe we could go in there and win you know two out of three against the defending world champions and adol Le Garcia Cory Seager and Josh Young and marus notna be able to go back to work if that happens you know so maybe maybe they will win that series and and then they come out and win two out of three in Colorado and you're four- two when the Dodgers come in and don't forget that Dodger series at Wrigley if the weather's going to be like what I think will be will not be as hard of a series they'll win one of those so 10 Series this first month and yeah I only have three Series wins Rockies Padres then later Red Sox two out of three okay I have a split with the Mariners sorry split with the Marlins for gamer split with the Mets of for gamer oh the Marlins is for it Wrigley yes a long series um one out of three against the Astros and then we already talked about Dbacks and Mariners so yeah it's it's a little bit of a gauntlet but also Pockets where you can hopefully get to that 16 and 16 17 and 15 range and you're feeling good about yourself going into the month of May last season off the this is totally off the top of my head so I I might forget something but we got swept quite a bit um I believe we were swept by the Reds at home um we were May yeah we were swept um by the Astros in Houston mid May yeah we were swept uh in Arizona we were swept in Atlanta um that's four right off the top of my head I'm sure I'm forgetting one or two avoid those damage control contr yeah that's a sweep is a you know it's just a rough outcome yeah try and cut that in half you know if if you got sweep let's say they got swept four or five times let's try and get swept maybe twice and I have to say I and on the reverse side I have to say a sweep of the Rockies should be the goal you know they have an off day on Friday too so that means you're facing the Rockies four and five starters Monday Tuesday that should be a series win immediately yeah then you have steel against whoever their rce is Kyle is Kyle Freeland still pitching yeah again we don't know any Rockies players we're going to do that'll be a segment next week okay but that should be a sweep yeah and when that happens the Cubs will be five in one all right so all right so we're it's 16 and 16 maybe 17 and 15 yeah just just just stay above water and then every good team will get hot you'll rattle off 15 out of 20 and you'll look up you'll be 10 games over and we'll be planning you know a nice long October um over Ron Clark and Addison so FanDuel as of recording time here 83 and a half still Joe Sheen's going to be on in a minute or two 96 wins do you have a win total that you'd like to make public uh we did this last year yeah I think I've done it already I think I said 87 87 yeah okay I'm still making up my mind oh boy well you're all over the place I I'm scattered with this this year and did you see the news that dropped right before recording time all right we got news and that is the opening day roster is set yeah okay okay Luke little last Bullpen spot Nick madreal is able to be on the opening day roster with his health and he gets the last bench spot Hayden wisneski Alexander Canario will head to De Moine Triple A season by the way begins this weekend too yep which is unusual usually it's a week behind and then uh a couple other guys will stay back in Arizona for for extended spring so yeah good news on the roster I think for sure coming up next let's talk to Joe Shen Prize Picks today's episode is brought to you by prize picks whether it's tournament season or the fight for playoff home court there's no shortage of high stakes basketball moments this time of year plus baseball season is right around the corner get in on the excitement with prize picks America's number one fantasy sports app where you can turn your sports knowledge into serious cash prize picks is really simple to play with your entries taking less than 60 seconds to submit turning $10 into $1,000 with just a few Taps of your screen uh quick withdrawals easy gameplay and an enormous selection of player and Stat types are what makes priz picks the best at fantasy sports on the app go to today's board where there are plenty of players and stats to choose more or less on download the prize picks app today and use code locked on MLB for a first deposit match up to $100 that's a first deposit match up to $100 by using code locked on MLB pick more pick less it's that easy with prize picks America's number one fantasy sports app longtime baseball writer Joe shien Joe Shien is our guest here on lockdown Cubs the Joe Shen newsletter is an email newsletter covering all things MLB right now you can subscribe for one year of the newsletter like I did recently at 79.95 to receive Joe's great writing and Analysis to your in box and actually there's an opening day special of 6395 right now that I would encourage all of our listeners to take advantage of Joe I've been listening to you uh 670 The Score a lot of your hits over the years on there uh your writing and now the newsletter thank you so much for being on happy to come on Matt big fan a lot of what lockon does throughout Major League Baseball they do a ton of great coverage and the big reason Joe is on is because he predicts the Cubs to win 96 Can the Cubs win 96 games this season I have to cut right to it why 96 I mean we're related but why yeah a lot of it is just about the Run prevention I think the Cubs had the best pitching in defense they've had since the 2016 team resigning Cody Bellinger that helps a lot obviously they probably would have played P Crow Armstrong in Center that would have been a a heck of a play in center field but you look at this pitching staff now they've started to build up the Young pitches if you look at the failures a harsh word but we'll go with it after 2016 a lot of it was this organization could develop its own pitches well now you look at the rotation you look at Javier Assad's going to get a spot Jordan Wicks has a spot but it's behind that the depth that I'm excited about whether it's a Hayden wisneski down in the miners you got Kade Horton and Ben Brown the Cubs just have more internal pitching depth now pitching in front of a really strong defense and they've had a really long time so I think their run prevention is going to be among the best in the National League and that's going to drive the win total I know I'm out there on the Cubs a lot of people don't even have them winning the division but I look at this team and I see a lot of similarities to that 16 Club that's great yeah run prevention has been a focus of of Jed Hoyer uh so Craig Counsell far since he's taken the helm and and of Craig Council and that's where I want to go next Joe because aside from sh managa Michael Bush and Hector nerys um although those those are formidable additions in my mind we'll see how they do but a lot of the national narrative right now on the Cubs is that the same team from 2023 is returning which really isn't true and really the biggest problem with that is they have a different manager and Craig council is one of the best in the sport first of all what were your initial thoughts with with hoyer's shrewdness on even bringing him in and how many wins of the 96 Council worth it's hard to quantify managerial contributions we can look at what a manager does but boiling that to a win number is difficult I've always thought of managers as almost being an offc center from zero what I mean by that is you think about replacement players being with zero wins I think managers are centered on minus two which is to say a lot of them if they're just only hurting you a little bit are probably ahead of the game some of them hurt you a lot and some of you know the good ones just don't just do no harm well council's on the far right edge of that scale if you look at the work he did in Milwaukee he was very good at taking noname bull pins guys you never heard of and assembling them into really effective fors and I look at this roster he has in Chicago now and it's similar to what he inherited in Milwaukee where not a lot of famous pictures they signed there she mentioned but you know alel is going to be in his second full season you look at Julian Merryweather guys like that guys who don't have a very high profile well to me I think this is going to work very well to council strengths in getting the most out of the bullpit talk about run prevention some of that is you and I don't think Ross was that bad with the bullpen I had more problems with David Ross running the lineup than I did with the bullpen but council is maybe the best uh manager of a bullpen in baseball that's going to be worth a couple of wins to this team that also gets folded into that 96 number um and I think the talent in that pen is going to get better as the year goes on I mentioned some of the young pitchers who might be called up to contribute along the way and then the Cubs will be good enough that they'll be in the market for the kind of short-term reliever upgrades that every contend teamates in July in order for the Cubs to have a 96 Who will take a step forward win season you know even 87 90 you know 93 whatever it is they'll need multiple players as you're alluding to to have high impact years according to you Joe who are some of the guys that are a focus in that type of category I want to make one point here I'm not evaluating the Cubs as was it 83 and 79 last year I'm yeah if you look underneath though they had one of the best run differentials in National leue they had a third order record of I believe it was 88 and 74 might have been 89 and 73 when I'm looking at a team for the The Following Season I'm not going off their record I'm going off those underlying numbers so whereas it looks like I'm projecting the Cubs for this huge jump I'm simply projecting them to get better without making a huge jump I think start if you're going to evaluate the the 2024 Cubs you've got to start with the fact that they were better than their record a lot better than their record in 2023 now as far as who's going to take a step forward I don't think I'm the only one looking at se Suzuki's second half from last year and saying give him 150 games in right field and he could be a five win player um that's somebody who has been good with the Cubs but I think there's a level of jump there that we saw late last season where you can get to Great and be that kind of prototypical right fielder with a strong arm good defense and you know 850 900 LPS um the other player you know I've been encouraged by council's use of him this spring Christopher Morel is a second baseman if he's anything obviously he can't play second with the Cubs herner and uh Swanson up the middle and he can't play The Outfield he can't play The Outfield he's like short F schwarber out there uh but I look at Morel and say look pick a position they slotted him in at third base now this squeezes out magical it'll squeeze out wisdom when he comes I mean there's all kinds of issues with doing that but if you're going to get as bad into the lineup it's either going to be a d a thirdd base find out if he's a third baseman give him 500 600 700 Innings where he's playing six days a week there and if doesn't work out you can fix that problem at midseason I like the way councils handle that because Morel is probably the Belling depends on how you feel about bellers last year Morel might be the second best hitter on this team that's the kind of bat the kind of offensive impact that he can have so I really like the way couns handled him this spring as well so those are two guys who I think are going to lift the offense up this year yeah the core of zuzuki morale Bellinger Swanson Herer Will Addison Russell be an everyday DH and hap I think give give confidence in in a lineup that can produce and and they did score a lot of runs last year um and and perform below you know where where some of that output was as as you say and Morell 100% an impact bat has to be an everyday player um if let's say it doesn't work at third a lot of cubs fans are inflicted in the The Narrative of oh well you can't just be a DH I think he can if that's where provides the most value You know despite his athleticism but if he's limited by footwork or arm angle over there at third why can't he just be an everyday DH do you have any thoughts on that no I'd play him there if it doesn't work at third I turn third into this hybrid magical wisdom type situation uh Master Bion maybe getting some time there and I would play Morel is the everyday DH um you maybe you use that spot to get Bellinger or bush or some other left-handed hitter a day off now and again but I I can't see a solution for the Cubs where morel isn't getting 145 starts wherever it is the bat is that good um you know he does have contact issues I'm not trying to turn him into my trout here uh but I think you're looking at 250 with a decent walk rate and a ton of power steal some bases as well I mean that's a guy who's going to be one of your better hitters you got to get him in the lineup so yeah if it doesn't work at third I make him full-time thir excuse me uh DH 24 25 Matt help me out here I know he's he's relatively young but there's some precedent for players in their 20s become becoming full full-time dhes I don't have to go out of Chicago to do it Harold Baines got to the Hall of Fame there you go he got to the hall of fame um yeah as a DH when he was 26 I believe because his knees were out so it's not completely unprecedented to take a young player and make him DH well he had 26 homers last year and came up in May um Lineup construction so that's that's nothing to nothing to bad at um the other thing is you know the lineup construction you you talked a little bit about it earlier I think for us as a show we took a position in the David Ross era of yeah we get it baseball everyone takes a turn you can't pass the ball to the same guy the same guy can't shoot every possession the lineup turns over organically but I believe the order does matter and that's for as much inactivity as there was in the offseason I was always comforted because of Craig Council and because of his history of okay the best bats bat to the top of the order and they're going to get the most run uh how do you see this lineup laying out in terms of balance of okay hap on base Suzuki hopefully on base Bellinger and Morell driving them in and then a lot of the depth pieces uh how do you see kind of the core fitting in in a council era lineup well I'm I I split with a lot of stae heads on this Matt I believe lineup order does matter um I and there are certain principles get your best hitters the most plate appearances get your OBP hitting in front of your slugging and then and this goes to my years of playing stratomatic I care about Lefty righty probably more than I should so when I can I want to separate them in the order Force the other manager particularly in an era when no starters are going deep into the game force him to have to make some tough decisions mid game now I believe roster resource they've got ha Suzuki as the top two I love Suzuki in the two hole um generally don't love right-handed batters there because the double play Risk but given the the players that they have if you go hap Suzuki Bellinger Morel and go from there I think that's your top four um and then you've got some depth I mean Swanson's basically been a 105 hitter a 105 Ops plus hitter for most of his career um you've got uh Nico horer who's kind of a sloppy average plus hitter and that's one of the things about this lineup if Mel at third base you really don't have any holes you can go nine average plus hitters you know Gomes has been about a 99 995 Ops guy for a catcher you know that's a pretty good hit and we'll see what they get out of Miguel laaya this year but this is a lineup that's going to flow really well one through nine uh but yeah I would like to see them just abide by those principles again High OB OBP and before slugging best hitters the most at bats all right so we talked about the lineup and the Cubs Cubs pitching offensively quite a bit Justin steel is the Ace of the Cubs we know Ace is a scouting term there's really not many around baseball if you get down to it if if you zoom in but he's clearly the number one pitcher for the Cubs we'll see what happens with Jameson tyion when he returns uh mid April or so from injury you got hris IM managa Wix Assad and then a prospect parade after that and we'll see what happens this summer with the rotation in that regard what do you think of the Cubs pitching Joe uh I think they've got a really good defense okay and that makes me feel better about the pitching because this isn't a staff that's going particularly rotation that's GNA strike out a ton of hitters I mean you do have Kyle Hendricks in there um Justin steel last year you I mentioned earlier when you're evaluating a team you want to look at the underlying statistics from the prior year it's the same thing with Justin steel Justin Seal's Frontline numbers he's an ace Justin Seal's underlying numbers two maybe a three um I look at the Cubs and I see a lot of number threes I think amaga is going to be a three or a four uh I think at least this year all of these young pitchers I'm talking about project as mid rotation to back rotation starters I think going forward you look at a Horton you look at a brown and guys who could be better than that but for this year it's a rotation where want these guys to get into the sixth not lose you the game work to the middle of the defense you talk about been talking about the defense a lot Bellinger in Center um I know he's projected to play first um who's in center right now I apologize I I I know I looked at this earlier Bellinger in Center Bush at first first okay I think I got I think roster resource might have it a little bit differently I I lean on that a lot I I keep citing them um and then up the middle they've got the best double play combination the Cubs have had in a very long time in Herer and Swanson so I'm okay with a pitching staff that goes out there I'm gonna get slapped for this but pitches a little bit like the Cardinals have over the years you know anytime the Cubs can imitate the Cardinals I know that makes Cubs fans Happ uh but no I think that's the kind of staff have they just have to be good enough to get the game to I think it's going to be a decent power bpin and let the the offense win the game I'm I'm not excited about the pitching staff I'm excited about the pitching staff in concert with the defense coming up next we're gonna ask FanDuel Joe about the schedule especially the first part of it stay tuned today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel say goodbye to busted brackets because FanDuel lets you bet on every game of the tournament whether you're betting not a big upset or a one seed it's time to go dancing not America's number one sports book right now new customers get $200 in bonus bets if your first $ five bet wins that's 200 bucks to use on point spreads money lines and you can even pick who's going to win it all we're in the sweet 16 it begins on Thursday and there's some local flavor with the Illinois fighting the lii against the Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa State right now early two and a half favorite we'll keep tabs on that that as the week moves along just visit fanduel.com lockon and bet on college hoops until they cut down the Nets FanDuel official partner of the locked on podcast Network we're back here on lockon Cubs Joe Sheen Joe Sheen of the Joe Sheen newsletter is our guest here to close out the show and earlier in this episode Joe Sam and I talked about the first 32 games of the season and based on the quality of opponents the first 32 for the Cubs are on the difficult side are you a believer in getting out of the gate strong I'm I tend to be a advocate of the position that they're all there are 162 games and the all count equal um James click over perspectus before he went on to win a ring with the Astros used to write these articles where he looked at the season backwards and the Order of events tends to really shape our opinions of what what we're seeing oh this team got up to ly start then they came back but really the order of events is too strong an impact I think that teams are basically playing the games as they're playing them and I don't care much one way or another the order in which they happen especially since if you look at every single year Matt there are teams that start out 15 and 23 and bounce back there are teams that start out 23 and 15 every year Sports illustrator writes the article about the Pirates Who are 14-9 with like a minus two run differential the Pirates are back and then they never hurt from again so so it's actually interesting as a writer I tend to pay I don't say I don't pay as much attention I try not to write as much in April because all you end up doing is chasing these small samples it's a little different now because the statcast data that we can collect that becomes real in a much smaller sample I think there's great work that are done out there with like pitch mix changes and Pitch shape changes um I think there's great work to be done there but the stuff that I do I really try to shut my mouth in April so to get back to the question I'm not that big a believer in how you start or how you finish it can manage over a longer manner over a longer term um if you're a good team that underperforms that affects how you approach the trade deadline um we've seen this with the with the Red Sox in recent years obviously the Cubs and Padre's are two big stories last year in terms of um underperforming their under under having a record worse than their underlying performance I think you get to June July you worry about you know where you are as far as that's concerned but first 32 games no I wouldn't sweat that Joe tell us more about the newsletter before we Joe Sheen Newsletter uh sign off on this Tuesday episode yeah I just I write about baseball I was uh one of the original baseball perspective guys I was there with them 14 years in 2010 I moved on to do more freelance work and I started the the newsletter because I basically had more to write than I had outlets for and the newsletter's now been running it'll turn 14 in May uh subscription product one of the first subscription products out there you know everybody's got a substack right now your Barber's got a substack uh but this was one of the first ones out there uh it is a pay product you get information at jan.com I want to mention two things right now there's 20% offer uh happening you can go to my Twitter feed at joeore Sheen uh to get the link to that the other thing is that I've started a free list so if you want to try out the newsletter I don't need your credit card number I don't need a commitment I just need your email address address email free Sheen newsletter at gmail free Sheen newsletter at gmail get one mailing a week with a little pitch and that's about it I'm not going to spam you don't need your credit card just free Sheen newsletter at gmail so there's a lot of ways to get to the newsletter right now I love writing about the game I'm very fortunate that I get to do it and thousands of people support the newsletter so I'm blessed Joe thank you so much for being on and and we're excited for this season and to read your work thanks Matt Take Care thank you so much for checking out this edition of lock on Cubs you give us 20 to 30 minutes we'll give you all things Cubs with the laugh or two along the way be sure to hit subscribe on YouTube smash the like button for the algorithm and leave a festar review on Apple Spotify and everywhere you get your podcast for Joe Sheen for Sam olber I'm Matt cozy and this is lock on Cubs