US Politics Election Extra: Harris - Trump Further Debate Analysis & Fact-Checking

hello team welcome to another ATP geopolitics video with myself Jonathan MSP is a US election special uh giving you an update on what's been going on this is concerning to begin with post debate uh the post debate landscape trying to work out what effect the debate has had on the on the polls on the electorates what analysts think show you a couple of bits I didn't show you before that I think are a pertinent and then look at other bits of news and and other topics and polls and whatnot now there will be an awful lot that I don't include here because I I don't have time to do everything and there will also be quite a lot in here and I apologize upfront this is going to be quite a long video anyway let's start by looking indeed at the debate again uh and we're going to get this is Tim Miller of the bull bullwark who was a former Republican and is now not so much not a big fan of of trump he he Dave he's getting Essie Cup who's a contributor to CNN to give her opinion of the debate in general and what I want to say up front is that my view is aligned with most most analysts who are fairly objective so if I look at British analysts who aren't kind of drawn into camps of MSNBC versus Fox right and even CNN gets a hard time by a lot of people on the right look at the British analysts everyone across the board seems to think think that Trump had a bad time and I completely agree I think Trump was had in this debate for all the reasons I gave you in my debate analysis I I think however I'm going to refine My Views a little bit in that one Harris did defeat him she left lots of bait for him to get hooked on and he sunk that uh he he chomped on that bait and got taking in hookline and sinker and this was because she was well prepared had some decent answers to the questions but as much as she did well Trump actually didn't do very well so you can argue that as much as she won the debate he also lost it there there she did do a good job but he did a bad job and he fell at some pretty obvious hurdles the other thing that's worth noting is and you can also um lay this at the feet of of trump because he didn't hold her to account she was vague on some answers and didn't answer some questions now what the right-wing uh analysts and prot Trump people are doing is blaming the moderators for this for not like I don't know factchecking or off but it wasn't factchecking it was it was she just wasn't answering the questions as much but that's where Trump should have been listening to what she was saying and then having her go at her and finding the weakness say actually you haven't talked about this or what about this and likewise at the end of the debate he talked about well you've had four years to do this why haven't you been doing why haven't you done that and that's a really good point and it had a good argument to make against her but he didn't make it until the very end of the debate when it was all over he in other words he did a really bad job of holding her feet to the fire in a way that you would expect especially with someone who's so experienced with debating but he wasn't prepared so he had he apparently got off the plane literally two hours before he just got off the plane went straight to debate thought right I'm going to do this right I'm not going to prepare I've had some kind of policy uh discussions with people like Matt Gates and Tossy gabard I've got Laura Luma this kind of right-wing extremist that's been hanging around with me I'm going to have phot so Ops with her and blah blah blah and going to get on this debate stage and Bish bash BOS and it didn't go very well because he wasn't prepared right and that that's a bit of an issue there's going to be all this when we'll have some of this discussion in a bit as to whether there will be a second debate whether there should be a second debate from either point of view personally I think both of them should be wanting to debate again he should be wanting to debate because he's got to be able to do better than that she's going to be wanting to debate because she she although she's got more to lose in one sense because if she does another debate it won't be as good as that it could be as good as that or nearly as good in which case she will do really well in the eyes of the audience for her this is about getting herself on Prime Time television for him not so much he everyone knows who he is she's still introducing herself to a lot of the electorate so I think there's some good arguments to suggest both of them should go for a second debate he's now saying that he won't and coming up with some crappy uh justification as to why he's saying that now this is what ESS cup says about the debate what was your Top Line give it to me um I feel like K Harris must be feeling what Putin and Kim Jong-un feel which is like I can't believe this guy fell for it like I can't believe how easily manipulated this guy was was this is such an important point and one of the reasons I think Trump is not fit to be president of the United States I do a lot of talking to you about Putin and about Ukraine war and about foreign policy and the the foreign diplomatic landscape Trump really is manipulatable and I've said for a long time flattery gets you a long way with him and he gets he gets easily manipulated by Putin you look at was it 2018 Helsinki press conference one of the worst points of his entire tenure for for Trump where Putin was able to get him to get Trump to come around to Putin's point of view and diss his own intelligence Services it was absolutely terrible King John un Like Love Letters from him uh g bolsonaro at the time uh Victor Orban then and now just an absolute what he fawns over Victor orbat and then Xi Jinping too he is if if kamla Harris with a little bit of debate prep can manipulate Trump into falling into a bunch of really simple traps throughout the debate what the freak does that say about International D you know diplomatic situations where dictators who are well versed in this someone a former KGB agent are are with Trump sometimes alone so that meeting the after which you had the Helsinki press conference was Putin alone with Trump and a translator only the translator knows what happened there it was a really egregious decision to go do that alone he was manipulated by Trump by Putin came out afterwards and was singing Putin's praises and basically advocating doing exactly what Putin wanted and there's an example of a human being who who was apparently very easy to manipulate and we saw that on the debate stage and so why I'm playing you what SC cup is saying is because I think that is absolutely vital to understanding the weakness of Donald Trump she laid out trap after trap after trap these weren't like um well-concealed traps these were pretty obvious traps and he walked into every single one like gly gly she must be I mean she's a prosecutor but she's not Houdini she didn't like she didn't there was no magic she laid a trap he walked right into it like laughing and screaming and like happily it was it was um I think even for for me having covered him so long somewhat surprising to see just how easily manipulated he was by her and I think if you're a swing state voter who is undecided and you don't really um you don't really love either of these people you just watch that thinking man he's a sucker what a sucker and a yeah yeah absolutely I think that's a a really good point there now the other place I wanted to go was to talk um about abortion and her answer on abortion that was really good and it's probably one of the highlights of her performance in that debate and I didn't give it enough airtime I guess in my previous analysis also the states and I it makes like it's like he didn't even prep the answer on his hardest question and then you get the commo answer I want to play one one bit from that and one does not have to abandon their faith or deeply held beliefs to agree the government and Donald Trump certainly should not be telling a woman what to do with her body I have talked with women around our country you want to talk about this is what people wanted pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term suffering from a miscarriage being denied care in an emergency room because they help heare providers are afraid they might go to jail and she's bleeding out in a car in the parking lot she didn't want that her husband didn't want that a 12 or 13-year-old Survivor of incest being forced to carry a pregnancy to term they don't want that and I pledge to you when Congress passes a bill put back in place the protections of roie Wade as president of the United States I will proudly sign it in too long that and as these guys going to say that was a really good answer because it had an emotional aspect so she was clearly emotional there in in the right kind of way that was an emotive answer so she's connecting these big ideas with emotion and speaking to you as a human and you are getting that but if you're a Suburban woman or any kind of female voter I think that's going to appeal to you that was well rehearsed that that was that was a um a scripted answer that she had off Pat in a way that Trump just didn't and I think that shows the difference his answer that he'll go to say was I think he he answered or maybe he said it before it's absolute nonsense but her answer was on point that answer was prepped that was a heat seeking missile aimed at prolife swing voters that don't like Donald Trump yeah or people that that were for some types of restrictions right like it was anyway you go weapons grade it was a weapons grade answer and she had clearly planned it but what was so great about it was a she delivered those lines very emotionally and passionately so it I think connected with real people and she said everything short of and you did this what she was saying was we don't want this women don't want this you know girls who've been raped they don't want this and you did this yeah she looked at him as she sort of laid out the consequences of that Supreme Court decision and she tied it directly to him and we know this puts him in a PR in a pretzel because he loves to take credit for it but he's also trying to distance himself so he had nothing he had nothing for that I think very surgical um and creative fle crafted um answer that did all the things checked all the boxes emotional personal passionate political policy and she made it about him it was great you're look at r really good analysis there and I think it's spot on he it's amazing that he didn't have these prepared answers for these difficult questions now the same can also be said about Harris so she's going to be tested more and more on the economy now I think we'll come to this later because I think there is an awful lot she can say but the idea of inflation and the and what people are feeling at the at the grocery store stuff like that she evaded having to answer that and he didn't hold her to her account so again I think that's is his loss rather than her win there uh but but if they do debate again you know he's going to be well much better prepped on exactly how how to attack uh Harris he was just going on culture wars stuff and Fringe right-wing talking points from the internet and hoping that was going to do the job and it just didn't now to that point so that last answer that KLA Harris gave talking about people in car Parks B blah blah blah Trump former director of The White House personnel and he's famous for doing these Tik Tok videos where he goes and eats in in D in a whole bunch of them and he gives you these kind of throwaway um comments or or digging has a digger XY and Z so he went to Tik Tok to mock Harris's debate answer on abortion and challenged a single woman to come forward with a story similar to the one that she just described right and it blew up in his face cuz nearly 10,000 did and in fact CN then then did a a a segment where one of those they showed one of those women talking through what had happened to her it you're playing with fire if you are going to pick a fight with this kind of topic so you're talking about pregnancy you're talking about you're a bloke talking about a female issue and female bodily autonomy and you are calling into question the live experiences are of potentially unless you've done your research if you just think as a bloke oh I'm sure no women's experience that they Pro what a load of rubbish that's a lie that never happens and then you go on on Tik Tok and do this video where you're sitting dipping your food in dip and then say yeah of course no one's experienced that what a load of rubbish he's a liar type thing and then like 10,000 women like uh yeah that is my reality thank you very much for being so insulting you are you're playing with fire because this is a very important demographic and if you screw that demographic over you're not going in the right direction so I think that that was interesting um mosovich mosovich who is a fire brand brilliant um representative here Democrat uh saying again talking about the the kind of trap it wasn't a hidden strategy they were literally telling people well in fact let him say it in his own words rather than me say you know and to think right like Cara's strategy was not it wasn't a hidden strategy they were literally telling people hey we're going to go out there and we're going to try to get under Donald Trump's skin this is the strategy we're going to get under his skin and we're g to let Donald be Donald and the flip side of that the Donald Trump strategy was also very public we're g to make sure we don't let her get under our skin and literally 11 minutes in she goes crowds siiz and he goes Victor Orban they're eating puppies and cats Abdul con the thing I forgot to mention it in my and I meant to in my analysis he talks about talking to the Taliban leader Abdul and there is no T he's just can't even he's talking nonsense the whole time even that was a lie effectively or just a complete Mist concepts of plans executing babies I I mean it w it was like diarrhea of the mouth as soon as she said crowd size um I mean I have I can't actually recall telegraphing your plan letting your opponent know what your plan is your opponent prepping against your plan and then within a second of launching your plan your opponent falling for it immediately that's a really really good point now uh Michelle dimitrov here on one of my threads said I was chatting with trolls about Harris calling for another debate they're angry because it and this is with you know people in the rightwing information spaces saying that it was rigged it was three against one like the two um the two moderators were against I mean it's ridiculous like yeah she had the questions Harris knew the questions head so you got all these uh conspiracy theories and they are they're just they are planted disinformation I've had people come to me say oh yeah um you know they're against her or you're seeing all these videos talking about on all these things on Twitter sorry talking about how she had had the questions given to her Advanced by someone there's a whistleblower within ABC and all of this is just complete Li it's lies it's lies you could even be Russian disinformation do not fall for it do not think because you've read that somewhere on a social media platform that it is true that there is a whistleblower and that she was handed the questions the reason she answered the questions well is because they were freaking obvious you're going to be asked about inflation you're going to be asked about the economy you're going to be asked about January the 6 you're going to be asked about you know I defending democracy you're going to be asked about foreign policy and so on and so forth like have answers prepared to that she was preparing for a week on that you don't need to be given Answers by some whistleblowers just absolute nonsense but that's all they've if if you complain about the referee then you know that you that you didn't do a good enough job by and large uh when you're when you're talking about Sport and here they're just like oh it was all rig it was against us it was just like when he lost the the election it was rigged get out you you no you didn't do well enough Harris had earpieces only Trump got fact checked yeah he got fact checked way more than her why because he lied more than her as according to fat check analysis you look at Daniel Dale finding he lied 33 times she misspoke once about uh what's the highest rate she was left with the highest rate but it wasn't the highest rate it was the highest rate within Trump's um I I don't know is it something unemployment so the unemployment was high it was highest under Trump but then it came down and then that's when they took over it came down a bit so when they took over it wasn't the highest but that's what she got wrong uh you could call into question certain other terms of phrases she used and whatnot but then goodness me you could do that I mean the whole Trump's thing about Ukraine literally 100% of what he said every you pass a sentence down and every phrase was like empirically incorrect like my goodness so that's why you were fact checked a lot because you were not talking in facts um but as Michelle here says but also they're complaining about this thing but then they also said But Trump won Harris slept her way into all her jobs so you know she only got there because of Dei she's unqualified and unwise she's dumb as a rock says says Trump she's stupid she's unwise she slept her way to the top she was only she only got that job because she's black or or Asian or Asian black or and basically it's all really unfair but Trump also won and he proved how useless Harris was uh and then you trying to have it every single way and as Michelle says I wish I was conservative what a roller coaster of emotions just like yeah it was this it was that it was this it was that it was this that or she did a better job of preparing did a better job of on the night he was arrogant un prepared and was schooled so then lots of people coming out saying well they're handling this really well so people are calling for the removal of ABC's broadcast license Trump has said this as well criminally charged the moderators and Executives for campaign Finance fraud seriously a ABC News is following up on up there craptastic debate by aing Jimmy Kimmel with special guest George Conway in case you're wondering whether or not the network deliberately planned to go after Trump tonight or it could be that right-wing comedy doesn't do as well as leftwing comedy and that's why you have more shows on your networks at leftwing comedy because punching up is better than punching down and we can get on to like the theories of comedy and whether that holds I've written several articles on that but anyway I don't want to get go down that road and road and digress but there is an awful lot of complaint about the moderators in ABC um sha Davis the CEO of the Federalist that's who this chap is uh believes ABC should lose its broadcast license and that David M and Lindsey Davis and various ABC News Executives should be indicted on federal criminal charges um now Trump on Fox News has said and he said in various places now that he doesn't want to do another debate and one of his arguments initially with with Shan Hannity the Fox News um anchor was that in the world of boxing or UFC when a fighter gets beaten or knocked out they get up and scream I demand a rematch I demand a rematch well is no different with a debate she was beaten badly last night every poll had us winning in one case 928 so why would I do a rematch of course when he beat Biden he wants a rematch right so he has it tries to have it both ways and it's ridiculous that you only call for a me rematch if you lose just absolutely ridiculous also this idea that with when he came out into spin room which very rarely happens he did it once in the primaries back in 2016 period I think it was um uh unless it was the 2020 primaries but anyway generally you don't go into spin room and he went in spin room which was kind of unheard of and and showed that things were looking bad straight after the debate and it was coming out with all these poll numbers but the poll numbers were not official po poll official polls where you've got a methodology and you publish that methodology and you try and get a weighted sample um or samples that waited in particular ways to be reflective of soet society and then blah blah blah or or you go on Twitter and do or YouTube and do I'm going to do a PO poll and you put it out to Twitter and you get a selection B of all the people either your followers or people just hanging around Twitter who might be like rightwing nut jobs so you've got like the Daily Caller putting a Twitter poll out there and then all their follow all the followers of Daily Caller who are super rightwing going yeah Trump run Trump run Trump run and then he comes out with these poll numbers like where you got those numbers from oh you've got them from a Twitter poll of daily caller listeners uh um subscribers or whatever you're like absolutely nuts and part of me there is this discussion I have and I've heard other people on on these um shows have the similar sorts of discussions in fact I should probably play you one from the newscast uh the news agents where they talk about does he know this does he actually know the truth or does he believe what he's fed or does he end up believing things cuz he's just ins sconed in this whole information space I have I have two children one of my children has got he's on the Spectrum and he's got something called PDA pathological demand avoidance it's one of the most challenging it's it's a really challenging condition um but it's quite similar to narcissistic personality disorder and there are elements of one of my kids that I see in Trump loads and one of the things that one of my boys does is he's unable to handle losing anything so he can't lose uh or he can't ever be in trouble or it can't ever be his fault for anything it literally can't pathologically he there is there are there are like genetic biological and and all sorts of influences on him internally so that just he cannot physically bring himself to accept responsibility for anything and this is exactly what Trump does it's really fascinating because what my boy does is invent narratives that will explain how something happened but he believes those narratives he literally will create a narrative that he would argue to the ends of the Earth is the truth so I'm often trying to work out like do you believe that and he does believe that and it's like well I was here with you and that's not what happened but you're arguing that's what happened and yet you will never ever concede that that didn't happen because genuinely think you experienced that happening but what your brain has done is invented this narrative so that you are not at fault so that you have not lost and that's part of his condition right this is why you know we play a board game if he doesn't win that that board's exploded and there's swearing and and all sorts going on because his brain just cannot that's that like cognitive dissonance like I'm perfect I I can't do anything wrong and I've just lost the game so I I see so much of his behaviors in say what Donald Trump does and I'm wondering does he believed this I think he create could easily create this narrative and be fed that narrative by all those people around him and search that narrative using confirmation bias such that he develops this reality that he genuinely believes it's not that like I think he he does really know that he lost the election I think there's enough people that told him him at the time and I think that's one of those things but then if you surround yourself with people that are are are reinforcing the lie that you are also spreading then there is this idea that you can end up believing the stuff that you initially understood wasn't wholly true anyway I I thoroughly digress here go and check the news agents latest podcast on on this was fascinating right um the you even had people like Frank Lun who's a Republican pollster saying it was a pretty bad performance do you think carela won and does that mean she may now win the election I think more accurately it's that Donald Trump lost and this is not the worst debate performance I've seen in my career but it's very close to it the conversations about people eating dogs and cats calling the leader of Hungary one of the greatest world leaders repeatedly missing the opportunity to focus on inflation and affordability and the complete inability to present his point of view without completely tearing into her into into Joe Biden into whomever was in his sights it was a pretty negative performance pretty pessimistic cynical uh contemptuous and I think that this will cost him yes I'm I'm trying to decide if I want to go on record and answer is yes I think that uh that he loses because of this debate performance now I disagree with him I think people will forget this easily and they'll syn back to their normal kind of status quo uh it will have some effect it has had some effect in the polls like a a tiny bit um they I think average average debate bump is 1.1% uh in in the polls and I think Harris has probably seen similar to that so yeah um now uh a couple of other things that happened in the debate that you could easily have missed here's one of them uh Mr President on January 6th you told your supporters to March to the capital you did send out tweets but it was more than two hours before you sent out that video message uh telling your supporters to go home is there anything you regret about what you did on that day you just said a thing that isn't covered peacefully and patriotically I said during my speech not later on peacefully and patriotically and nobody on the other side was killed Ashley babbett was shot by an out of control police officer that the the key that Tim Miller is going to talk about is nobody on the other side was killed nobody on the other side that should have never ever shot her it's a disgrace there are a couple key points there that I just want to really dig in on the first one is he talks about how there people that are on the other side that didn't get injured on the other side the people on the other side didn't get injured and it's one of the things he's doing this this just kind of Rapid Fire words out he's talking he's talking he's talking he's blabbing it's nonsense it's lies it's like hard to keep track everything that he's saying he just talked about Ashley babbit who had been killed and that was kind of jarring and then and then he's like and then people on the other side weren't injured and in real time I didn't even catch this I just I have to admit um I I upon rewatching because of the other horrible thing that he says a sentence later um and then on rewatch I was like wait who is the other side who's the other side who's he talking about and and it's obvious I I assume you figured it out by now he's talking about the capital police that that in Donald Trump's warped mind that J January 6 was some kind of battle between two teams the magate team that wanted to overturn the election the insurrectionists the people that stormed the capital the people that [ __ ] on the capital the people that waved their racist flags and wav their Trump Flags right next to them that's literally true that was feces smar on the walls of the capital um and it was them the magga team his team against the other team which was the capital police the people who wanted to defend and uphold the Constitution I guess Mike Pence is on the other team um others Nancy Pelosi of course would be on the other side and I just just think about how warped that is and how demented that is that okay so that's one point and then and I advise anyone to go back and look at the actual footage of January the 6th and wonder if it was really people you know tourists having a nice day out as as some have intimated it was it was there are some there's some horrific footage from January the 6 and and we forget how horrific it really was here's another very important uh thing that could have been missed from the debate he he goes on and let's just play that clip one more time but we didn't do this group of people that have been treated so badly I ask what about all the people that are pouring into our country and killing people that she allowed to pour in what about those people what's what are they going to be prosecuted okay yeah catch that again CU he catches himself he says we it's like who's we and then and then he kind of pauses and he's like that group of people with was being treated very badly who's the group of people that's being treated very badly the so-called hostages the violent criminals that have been jailed for their actions that day Donald Trump again saw them as we like he was he with them like that was M posy the people that are being treated very badly in his mind the people have been jailed for their their violent assault on um individual Americans as well as the Constitution I it was really interesting that that's well worth pointing out because I think there's possibly not enough um there's not enough criticism given of trump and his uh support of those people and and the idea that storming the capital is to to get the election overturned is somehow acceptable uh now I I'm probably only going to do actually I'm going to cut this video short and only going to do this as as another post debate analysis and leave all my other stuff for later but let's just have a look at how three people reacted differently to the debate so we got former Trump strategist here and we got a couple of others let's kick it off with you with this news from Trump that he won't debate Harris again is is is this a mistake no I don't think so because I think regardless of what the polls and the overall numbers say about who won who lost I when you look at the Reuters panel when you look at the quotes from The New York Times it shows that the undecided voters which is the really the only voters that count right now they didn't leave that debate thinking kamla won or she didn't seal the deal they still like the Trump policies they want the lower costs they want the secure border she hasn't sold them yet that's on her I don't think I think another debate is in his interest I will note though in our CNN poll conducted after the debate 69% of Independents pulled did think that Harris won the debate and so you have to ask the question with another debate in other words yeah Independents weren't SW swung by that so what's the point in having another debate uh we've done a poll and they were but you know so okay you're empirically wrong at least by by our data and then she goes on to talk to someone else potentially be an opportunity for Trump to try to sway some of those Independence he needs Donald Trump has debated more in presidential general elections than anyone in American history and he won the debate against Joe Biden in our poll by 35 points but the other six debates against Hillary Clinton Joe Biden now KLA Harris he lost by an average of 25 points okay he's a ter this is worth remembering and he's actually talking statistically lost as in from the debates from the post- elction debates we did and famously Hillary Clinton did win the debate and this is the idea you know as Mitt Romney won the debate against uh again the first debate against Obama and you had Hillary Clinton winning a debate against Trump in both cases the other person was the person who lost that debate was elected and you could have the situation where kamla Harris won this first debate but Trump ends up getting elected but statistically speaking actually Trump is not a good debater people think oh yeah he's really good in debate and it's XY and Zed but actually on if you look at the data he's not great he appeals maybe to the base instincts of some people who are listening but but when you look at rhetorically what's going on and and look at ual validity of arguments and and how whether they landed so on and so forth he he hasn't been particularly good against Hillary Clinton Joe Biden now KLA Harris he lost by an average of 25 points okay he's a terrible debater the the Titanic didn't sail across the Atlantic a second time okay he needs to he should mute his microphone when he's speaking not just when the Comm is speaking I mean he's awful at this he's the most experienced and he gets worse with everyone with the great exception of when President just lost the debate he just collapsed uh and and and Trump won that and that's to his credit I didn't think he performed all that well but it didn't matter it's a really good point about that is that actually Biden did lose that so people saying that Trump's performance in that debate was terrible he was saying absolutely Bonkers things Biden should have eviscerated him in the debate but Biden was cognitively unable to do so and that's why all the alarm Bells went because actually Trump was there for the taking so so Trump didn't win that debate Biden lost it because Biden collapsed but except for that one he's been terrible this of course he's not going to debate again he's awful Harris is saying there should be another of course yeah I mean she humiliated him she emasculated him she spanked his Fanny for 90 minutes uh in front of millions of Voters why would he want to do that again um of course she wants to do it again because she scored an A+ she was Stellar she had high expectations going in she surpassed those expectations and dismantled him um and so of course he's coming out some are arguing that actually with such high expectations for a second debate she could just be setting herself up for a fall but nonetheless those arguments will will possibly not matter at all because it looks like he's not agreeing to do another debate now we're going to go to Sarah Longwell who deals with focus groups and she has she's been doing this for for many years and she's actually been doing it since turning away from Trump's GP so she's a former Republican who is now tasking herself with with the job of finding out what these key voters think and then seeing what changes their mind and seeing how their minds change or don't and feeding that back into strategies and whatnot although her sample size is obviously going to be small because these are focus groups where you're talking in depth to people you can't do that with like a thousand people this is like three people five people we got you know we've got three people here the RFK voters Who Who Are disaffected You Know uh Biden or or Harris vot has gone gone to RFK can you get them back you know the we're looking at these people but these are representative so these we we've curated a bunch of people for our focus groups and we know that these people are exactly like this which is exactly the sort of people that that this represents this whole demographic and if so you then do you then get them to see the debate and you say right let's get let's look at these three people or five people and see how they feel about the debate although you can easily skew your data because you only have such a small sample size these are carefully created samples and they do give you quite a lot of information it's all about speaking to these people at depth to get a get a sense of what how they feel okay so uh Tim's got great spin room content but I've got fresh hot focus group content uh so we just did a group of Swing voters from swing States uh the SE are people who voted for Trump voted for Biden in 2020 but we had three of them who uh we have talked to previously they've been leading so of those swing state voters and of those people who have voted for both so both Biden and Trump previously so 2016 Trump 2020 Biden now looking like moving back to Trump and this and she said of these these types of people we got three of them who in RFK over Harris uh and it was a clean sweep for Harris both in head-to-head vote choice so she had won those uh RFK leaners over with this debate performance it was a clean sweep for Harris in terms of them believing that she had absolutely won the debate uh their big the the word that they used and this is a thing that um I think is really important and and is something that she accomplished last night one of the top words that people used organically without us bringing it up was presidential she looked presidential uh that's good and then and there was a big like heris skeptic in the group like a guy who does not like her record as da knows a lot about it um even yeah even he we had him back uh in June and even and so he was an RFK leaner uh even he got there on her um and uh despite despite still raising his objections about her time uh as the da but he was saying he was like Trump started talking about eating pets and I just did a spit take uh you know like this um I mean the number of people who were just like what was he talking about he looks crazy um you know and here's the thing much like the Biden debate where because I I just I I tweeted this this morning but I think it's important uh in terms of the reaction that we're seeing from Republicans which is they're saying the thing that people said to me the sort of demn pollster and the activists demn activist uh who was on stage with me that night and who was very angry with me after the Biden debate because I was saying that is like a disaster for him like I was being very honest with the audience and I and at the I was like guys I'm going to level with you it's my job to do clear analysis and I'm going to tell you that was that might be campaign ending and these guys were so mad at me and what they said on on the stage that night was debates don't matter and if you look at Ben Shapiro and a bunch of the Republicans today they are trying to argue that debates don't matter which I got to say a six weeks following a debate that caused one of the two major candidates to drop out saying that debates don't matter is like a nuclear level hot take um I think they're calling that cope yeah C is high level copium here especially oh this was the other thing in the focus group they were like no the moderators were good like there was not this sense that and these groups these flipper groups I just want to they are some people might be like okay these are people who voted for Biden before and it's true that they are but they are also temperamentally conservatives like they are center right voters who just hate Donald Trump because he's like uniquely terrible but like would love to vote for a republican is typically this kind of group and so this is a group where after you know the last three and a half years of Biden we saw saw real backsliding I talk about the backsliding a lot and so for her to have I think she did the thing that we desperately needed her to do which was to make the case not just that Trump is terrible because these guys already kind of know that but to make an affirmative case for her and I think she I think she did that so what's interesting about the debate as well is that she she was really gunning for quite literally gunning because you talked about her owning a gun Tim walles owning a gun gunning for the center center right voters and Republicans to steal them over to the Democrat and give them the Democrat ticket and give them a permission structure to come over and this is what these focus groups Sarah longwell's focus groups are they literally are these types of Voters I'm going to go to a video that I was going to show later and now I'm going to put it in the second part to this video but I'm going to show you this because this is a new Wisconsin uh so this is one of the kind of battleground sort of States Up in You Got m Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania up in the Great Lakes area and there's a plus five Harris uh very accurate as well I think this is a very well-respected pollster that has come out with a plus five outside the margin of error uh um poll in support of Harris this is really big news but it's the cross tabs that are important so cross Tabs are where you look at the different subcategories and see how they they go and what do they tell you he's just talked there's a guy called voting Trend he's just talked about the uh age different age sections and that was interesting but we're going to go here into Republicans Independence Democrats and how they are looking at voting in Wisconsin as according to this poll all right so if we go ahead and look at um party identification we can see that with the Democrats they're almost those who identify as Democrats are almost solidly behind Harris now this is one thing that we that that is a big change from what we saw with Biden we saw a lot of people with Biden just like I don't know if I'm going to vote right now we're seeing kamla Harris really really solidify the Democratic votes I mean the Republican vote is still pretty high but a lot more are looking like they could stay home in Wisconsin and of independent voters we see a pretty big shift when it comes to K Harris however okay this is huge okay so the top one is party ID leaners as Independents the second one is party ID leaners as partisans so two slightly different groups here now what you have so You' got two jobs you want to solidify your own vote and we're also talking about post debate here so the debate was aiming to do this the intention of the debate was to solidify her own vote so Democrats come out and vote bloody Democrat don't go switch over to the other side we want want you to be part of our team again all of you need to vote with your home team type thing okay then we want to look at Independence in the middle say you guys come to us don't go to don't go to Trump come to us and Trump likewise needs to be doing this the question is in the debate and in the campaign is Trump doing that is C is Harris doing that better than Trump so is she solidifying her own base getting the independence over to her and stealing some of the the Trump voters or the GOP voters are may be the Reagan Republicans and with Trump is he solidifying his vote is he actually making is he pushing some of those independent voters away is he pushing his own Reagan Republican voters away and this Wisconsin poll is fascinating because Republican leaners as Independence right Democrats get 99 those ided as Democrats in this category 99% of them are are voting for Harris and only 1% you're only losing 1% in the laners as partisans 98% are staying with Harris 2% are going so leaking 2% with Republicans 92% not 99% in that top group 92% are voting Trump but leaking 3% to Harris and 5% to I think either you've got RFK still on on the ticket here or maybe not voting whatever 5% % so that's losing 8% whereas Democrats only lose 1% so in that category that's a minus 7 for the Republicans in the leeners as partisans you've got okay minus two for the Democrats here but then you got six and three which is nine which is again minus 7 for the Republicans that is bad news in a in a state where the margins are super important now it gets worse because the independence as leaning independent and Independence as partisan you've got 50% going Harris or 53% going Harris 38% in the top group going Trump and 12% going neither of the two uh 25% in this second group uh go of The Independents going to Trump and 21% going elsewhere 53% going to Harris so when we're talking about the three things get your own voters get the independent vot and the swing voters or independent voters and then get some of those swingy voters from the Republicans or even like Reagan Republicans or whatever those are the three things she has to do from that debate and from her campaign and looking at the Wisconsin cross tabs she has done that that is super super important you've got evidence there that there is a success you got an empirical justification for this for the the strategy that she is going for um and you've got empirical evidence that Trump's strategy isn't working not only that you've also got a reflection in the amount of money being uh raised so $47 million came out of the debate 24 hours after the debate according to New York Times so is that the same for the Republicans why is that that has to reflect something that has to reflect some kind of enthusiasm and some kind of impact that that debate had for for Harris that it didn't have for Trump okay now we're going to move on to some factchecking from that debate so Republicans against Trump here says Trump we will do deportation so this is this is kind of newsy do I do that no let's go to actual we'll do that in my next video is pertinent to debate because you mentioned it debate he's double doubling down blah blah blah we're just going to look very quickly at crime rates so something he mentioned in the debate is the you know crime is R immigrants they they come into our country illegal immigrants are doing crime now as Steve Ratner says immigrants are less likely than us born citizens to commit crimes particularly undocumented ones Trump's stories uh about migrant crime are clearly fiction or if they're not fiction individually the plural of anecdote is not data right you can come up with as many scary anecdotes as you like but it doesn't mean that that is actually a trend what they try and do is scare you with anecdotes and stories and claim that that is a trend and say therefore we need to stop migration on account of the criminality that it that it um correlates with or or that it causes in communities but the reality is very different so the blue uh bar here is US born citizens the purple is are legal M immigrants and the yellow is undocumented immigrants and in each case like legal and undocumented immigrants do fewer crimes per thousand so this is this is a percentage of proportion this isn't like real numbers so it's not skewed by the amount of people you have proportionately those categories do less fewer crimes than us born citizens in both violent crimes property crimes and Drug violations it's just not true what Donald Trump says violent crime has declined by 26% since Trump's last year in office quite the opposite of going through the roof so talking about crime going through the roof is actually falling significantly and that's according to uh CIA data yeah it's just you can go and look at fact check is illegal imig immigration linked to more or less crime um it's just interesting to note that in a recent post Trump noted that in uh in 2015 tech oh sorry not Trump um Alex NES from the libertarian Kato Institute noted that in 2015 Texas police made made 85,681 arrests of native born Americans 37,76131 the relative populations of each group so this is Texas remember right on the border he wrote quote the arrest rate for illegal immigrants was 40% below the native born Americans in addition he wrote the homicide arrest rate for native born Americans was about 46% higher than the illegal immigrant homicide arrest rate other research from the Kato Institute attempted to provide National estimates the research concluded quote illegal immigrants are 47% less likely to be incarcerated than Natives and legal immigrants are even less likely to be in jail or prison another study does undocumented immigration increased violent crime which was published in the journal criminology in March so this is relatively recently looked at the influx of undocumented immigrants into communities in recent decades and concluded quote increased concentrations of undocumented immigrants are associated with statistically significant decreases in violent crime in other words the more undocumented immigrants you get into your community the less crime there is crime goes down this is literally the opposite to what Donald Trump says now I'm not saying there is aren't social cohesion issues I'm not arguing for immigration forget the argument about immigration whether it's good or bad what all we're doing here is factchecking the Fairly egregious claim and Donald Trump that crime is going through the roof and it's linked to Illegal immigration because that is statistically unsound uh one of the studies author Michael light professor of Sociology at Chicano Latino studies at the University Wisconsin told us via email that the president is conflating two different issues and misusing statistics so on and so forth um we're here we have debunking the myth of the migrant crime wave from the Brennan Center for justice data does not support claims that the United States is experiencing a surging crime caused by immigrants that's from May this year the research does not support the view that immigrants commit crime or are incarcerated at higher rates than native born Americans in fact immigrants have uh might have less law enforcement contact compared to non-immigrants focusing on the fact that imper is imperative especially given the immigration has become a top issue for voters ahead of the election substantial research has assessed the relationship between immigration and crime numerous studies show that the imig that immigration is not to higher levels of crime but rather the opposite Studies have also examined the impact of the concentration of immigrants on in a community of crime patterns finding that immigration is associated with lower crime rates and an increase in structural factors such as social connection and Economic Opportunity that are linked to Neighborhood safety when looking specifically at the relationship between undocumented immigrants and crime researchers come to similar conclusions numerous studies show that undocumented immigration does not increase violent crime research examining crime rates in so-called Sanctuary cities also found no discernable difference when compared to similarly saturated cities without Sanctuary policies one study that focused on drug crimes and driving uh and driving Under the Influence found that all unauthorized immigration status was associated with reductions in arrests for those offenses so on and so forth and it goes on and on and on just it is it is egregious when as a political candidate you can stand up and effectively lie through your teeth to the audience I mean if you're talking about illegal immigrants when actually they're legal because we're talking about the Haitian um so remember this was all about Haitian immigrants in um in a community in Springfield eating pets you are you are playing with fire again here because these people can vote because these are legal migrants very disturbed by these comments because JD instead of retracting and apologizing he's doubling down and changing his story and saying oh constituents are calling my office saying that they saw someone eat a dog or cat or ate Garfield I don't think so he's lying I challenge I ask the media to reach out to Senator Vance and ask him for the records of his legislative office we want to see what constituents are actually saying these lies Rea who works at my office we record the phone number in name of every person that calls our office that's what a legislative office is supposed to do and so we're going to ask JD Vance show us the proof because there is no proof you're a liar you're lying about such good people that's right that's unchristian how dare you how dare you go to church you don't deserve to be a senator that's right and I'm asking Elon Musk I know you were in space today but honestly you act you act like a space cadet how dare you double on these lies and spread these fallacies and spread these lies through Twitter or X or whatever you call it you're not even American you're South African and the allegations are that it was a South African who was who was uh taking the goose and the geese or whatever the the the duck so you know these statements are completely false and there's no way they could justify it or verify it thank you so you have 300,000 Haitians who can vote in Florida that is potential a bit of an own goal now if you're talking about going to another country to eat cats might be worth looking at this foreigners come to our country and kill our animals uh I wonder who that is H do we have a trump in the picture there and a dead cat H could could have other claims from the debate were tariffs Trump's proposed tariffs will hit low earners the hardest reducing after tax incomes by 6.3% in the Bott quintile so Steve Ratner factchecking some other of the claims uh Senator JD Vance has that come out and said that economists disagree about whether tariffs lead to higher prices so this week the University of Chicago surveyed economists and asked them exactly this question 43% strongly agreed 52% agreed 2% were uncertain and 2% which is one person disagreed so when he said uh they disagree the economists disagree actually they don't only one economy Economist disagreed but he misunderstood the question this one Economist who disagreed appeared to understand the question as asking about a tariff on one country rather than all countries As Trump is proposing in other words someone has gone and fact checked the claim that economists disagree on whether tariffs lead to higher prices they all agree and even if one person didn't that's statistically insignificant I would argue they all agree that tffs will lead to higher prices Trump was not a net oil importer but the us became a net oil exporter under the B under Biden for the first time in over 70 years now of course this might have connections to the global price of oil as well but the US is producing is pumping more oil at the moment than any other country in the history of the world so you know when you stand up and say drill baby drill so on and so forth it becomes a little bit uh difficult anyway um that's enough for the this video doing a bit of factchecking of the debate seeing some Fallout of the debate it looks like there there's a little bit of a bump for Harris in the polls some polls are well it's going to be fascinating to see what the polls do going forward where it gets quite interesting is registrations now we've seen that that um Taylor Swift has come out and endorsed Harris and that's led to a whole bunch of interest in registration we're going to see if there is genuinely a swift effect uh on actual registrations not just logging on and looking at the site as we know that there was like what 407,000 people did after uh after she announced the endorsement and then further made a comment in uh the VMA the MTV Awards uh so there there could be an effect on registration but it I have been looking and actually prior to that we have seen Republicans ahead in registration which is which is quite surprising um but there there are some claims as to the quality of that data because I think that data doesn't include a whole bunch of different states where there is really high registration for the Democrat so there are loads of questions concerning registration that I would like answered um and it's it's quite often when you look at these headline stats there there's a lot more uh to be said beneath them like like you could argue with these oil um export um stats as well anyway that's enough for me from this one that's just dealing with the debate and I probably won't have to bring up the debate again uh but I just thought this would be important to understand to to get a handle on some of these ideas is let me know what you think Am I Wrong anywhere uh and I will do another one later that's looking at different areas of the campaign thank you so much for uh indulging me take care tole Pips