US Politics Weekly Election Extra: Trump-Harris Showdown - Granular Poll, Campaign, & News Analyses

hello team welcome to another another atpg politics video with myself Jonathan MSP this is to finish off my us election update I did a full hour on picking up all the pieces that I thought were relevant to share with you concerning the debate uh I will try not to mention the debate too much there's a couple of bits of data coming out looking at poll's post debate that I think are interesting we're going to look at uh some of the uh cross tabs in those but I am going to be talking about all all the rest of what's been happening that I wanted to mention earlier but it would have made it about a 4our video so anyway and then I probably won't do another update for many days so just get purging all of this information out of my system hopefully it's useful and interesting for you I find this stuff interesting so what the hell okay just interesting one from Darren Darren Corgan who is a listener long-term listener longtime listener and member at the ATP geopolitics and my Ukraine stuff but he is he's a republican likely supporting Trump as a republican but he says like most voters I'm ashamed by what I did not know about Trump until you pointed it out uh so in interesting there like there is I have long worried that why we are seeing this persistent 46% of the electorates still supporting Trump and willing to support Trump and you know my positions on him right they're all out there I'm not a fan of him from a social moral point of view I think as a human being he's not a nice person he's a he's um he's liable for sexual abuse he's up in court for a whole bunch of things uh I don't like the man okay why is it that that he appeals to an awful lot of people still and there's a lot to be said and we'll talk about this later there's a whole bit of data on on how Vibes are more important than than actual substance and policy and ideology to a sense in a sense so that's really interesting so I think a lot of people who like him like him for The Vibes like if you're going to be hard on immigration and and migrants and you as a as a voter find that as one of your top top issues then you kind of either forgive the rest of what he says or you grow to like the rest of what he says because this is so super so super important but also I think there's a lot of people ins sconed within an information bubble whereby they don't see out of it so Darren for example if you are someone I don't know if this is the case with Darren if you're someone that just watches Fox News then on Fox news for the DNC the Democratic National Convention you won have seen any of the Republicans speaking at that there were seven Republicans two a day virtually that spoke at that convention and Fox News did not play a single one of them on purpose right because they are an actual uh campaign arm for for Trump's GOP now if you get all of your information from Trump or from the manosphere or both you know the the kind of right-wing ecosystem you are never going to see anything that is remotely critical of trump or the GOP it's you will just exist in that information space now you can argue the same for me and that might well be true I can tell you I see an awful lot of the other side right I have not um blocked people like Elon Musk on my Twitter feed precisely so I get a handle on what is being meant mentioned and there's an awful lot of conspiracy theory out there there a awful lot of incorrect mythology being pumped into that space But I do get to see it uh hopefully what I I do is provide at least some people with the other side of the story and for some of you I'll be just comforting You by just saying what you want to hear as well okay I get that right we're going to go over to the campaign now uh which is what's been happening since Trump and Harris were debating and the the first thing is to remember that during the debate Trump insulted uh Harris by and she insulted him on account of crowd sizes that got him angry and he went right no one goes to to see your uh rallies and if they do they just bust in and paid paid to be there etc etc and actually that's just empirically not true we're just going to see this Montage of of the debate this back and forth between them uh concerning these sort of claims and what each uh each campaign's looking like at the moment I'm going to actually do something really unusual and I'm going to invite you to attend one of Donald Trump's [Applause] rallies it's a really interesting thing to watch women I won't be following you around to the hospital monitoring and what you will also notice is that people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom by the way her Crowds Are zero her crowds she's got no crowds and I will tell you the one thing you will not hear him talk about is you they take in the geese you know where the geese are in the park in the lake and even walking off with their pets now there all sorts this is to do with the Haitian migrants and eating pets and stuff like that the important point in this montage for me is well her important point there was he's not going to talk about you and actually this is really true and this is the problem of the Trump campaign so if Trump wants to win he needs to start talking to the American electorate talking to them saying what I am going to do for you this is what I and my Administration are going to do for you so there all this criticism of of Harris's campaign that they are not they are not giving enough um substance that they're not setting out their policy enough etc etc but of course Trump doesn't set out its policy and I talked about this in a previous video that Trump is an empty vessel that is rolled out in order to attract people with this kind of bombastic rhetoric that he has people he talks about immigration blah blah blah that gets people on board and they are attracted to that H and he gets him he reels him in like with with that kind of retor but he's devoid of any substance and any granularity any detail about what the actual Administration that he is offering is going to do what the future looks like for the US now what that is for him and for the Republican party that has been developed by the Heritage Foundation in the form of project 2025 now he's disavowed that because he knows it's actually poing deeply unpopular is lacking in popularity because it's so divid it's about clearing out the government is about being really harsh on loads of social moral aspects and on polls that's not looking good however it is their plan and it has been written by all the people around him and he knows about it he denies it he does but he knows fully about it he was at a conference talking to the people who wrote it and saying they've got a plan for us and they were saying we're passing this through Trump and etc etc it is he knows he knows about it he knew about it it is the plan for the administration which is why the the Harris campaign is still talking a lot and they should do about project 2025 but that's the that's the detail he in all reality Pro he doesn't read right so he won't read the 900 page document and he gets by on regurgitating what he sees online in these information spaces on Twitter on rumble on uh true social he regurgitates that he has people like Laura Luma who's a right-wing extremist around him giving him information you've got JD Vance with the same kind of uh ideology I guess talking about Haitians and pets and then Trump regurgitates that gets in trouble because it's completely unfounded he doesn't really know he's just regurgitating a load of nonsense that sounds good to him and thinks that he thinks the audience would would like but the reality is he's not speaking to the audience about he's how he's going to make their lives better how are you going to make life more affordable for someone going and doing their grocery shoppings calculating how much they've got left over having to put some food back because they can't afford it you're talking about putting tariffs of on everything but the reality is all economists pretty much agree that widescale tffs on everything will lead to almost immediate inflation so the so he is not really doing a good job of being a serious ious politician with a serious platform and ideology and agenda to to try and persuade his his voters that that that's what is good for them and what he's offering and it's not attracting people in the middle and people from the other side whereas Harris is doing a good enough job of that now I say good enough because there's still more details to come out people are criticizing Harris but she's only been in this race for six weeks try and write I suggest I challenge you to go and write a a policy agenda for an entire nation for the biggest most important kind of economy and Nation on Earth in six weeks go and put that together in six weeks it's tough right so she wasn't going to be running for president and then she suddenly was and she's had to put all this together so it will come people were expecting it right away she had to work out the debate get prepared for the debate it was all about preparation for the debate now it's about putting some more meat on those bones doing those interviews doing interviews in different places which apparently we're hearing we are hearing that that's apparently happening so she's going to be appealing to some of these more diverse demographics including online and this kind of radio station that not just going to your mainstream media which is important we get more information now from outside television and mainstream media we get it online as a new poll came new survey came out told us at least in in the UK last week so this is you you've got to remember that that this is about persuading people to vote for you but not just your own uh base people in the middle and people from the other side he needs to get over 50% he's got hard cing 46% is he talking to the electric note is he talking to the voter in a direct way saying how he's going to improve their lives not really my dog's been taken you will not hear them talk about your needs your dreams and your and your desires I always liked him I'm not going to watch him anymore I'm not going to watch him because he's not legit what he did I'm not going to watch him and his hair is not as good as it used to be you know I'll tell you I believe you I think he's referring to the uh one of the moderators on ABC saying that his hair is not good enough I mean look at Trump I can't talk but this is not serious and it's that bombastic rhetoric now some people like that and his base seem to like that they like to see him stand up there and insult other people almost like it's on a school playground maybe it reminds them of being together with the school bully if I'm with the bully I'm not on the receiving end so I'll be with a bully and then laugh when he's insulting someone over there maybe there's some kind of psychology like that going on but that is not going to give Mass Appeal deserve a president who actually puts you first the parents mom did they're so proud she get come on baby you can do it you saw it well K do she couldn't get it up and I pledge to you that I will my wife hates when I do this she says it's so unprecedent IAL yeah interesting so uh okay well we're going to now look at whether he was correct in stating that no one goes to her rallies so this is the line at the Wilks bar Pennsylvania right now waiting to see CA Harris speak today the former ctown has fired up to elect kamla Harris and the turnout is amazing this is why Trump is scared says this Source okay what's important about this is she is going first of all this is Pennsylvania that's that's sped up that's a line outside first of all this is Pennsylvania shows she's been very close she's like right done the debate won the debate we'll look at the stats on the debate later now I need to go and Target swing States uh and Battleground states that are going to win me the election and I'm not just going to do that I'm going to go to certain areas and in fact voting trends YouTube channel I've been watching recently talked about this in Pennsylvania saying she needs to go to these and which is where she's going so there's a coal mining town this this is you know Trump territory in a Battleground state that that has gone to the Democrats and is on the wire but she's going to the more rural areas or areas where the Republicans usually get a little bit more of a vote and she's trying to chip away at some of those percentages around these other sort of counties and districts in Pennsylvania and of course going to Pennsylvania itself whoever wins Pennsylvania wins this election is my opinion uh and she's doing that and then when you look at this I mean it's absolutely incredible so fun fact that Greensboro coliseums the largest capacity of any arena in North Carolina so before she went to Pennsylvania she went to North Carolina uh which has again become what is a Battleground State and it's become one it is in play for the Democrats so CA Harris filling this to capacity is a big deal a very big deal when she wins North Carolina of course says says someone who wants her to do so she wins the election and actually that would be true you know if you're going to win North Carolina you're going to win Pennsylvania now you can have childish arguments about who's got the biggest crowds but actually KLA Harris is getting more capacity crowds than he is in the same places he's gone to he's not being at capacity she has but there's also the enthusiasm that is being generated and at some point there has to be some element of this translating into votes there has to be something to be said about enthusiasm and people queuing for that long and turning up into massive massive uh Arenas to to support CA Harris in a way that they weren't for Joe Biden and they aren't for Donald Trump to the same degree as uh this same person says people who filled the greensbor colise into capacity Rolling Stones Bruce princ Prince Beyonce Taylor swi El John Paul McCarney and VP CA Harris now here we've got another one Donald Trump said at the debate nobody goes to vice president Harris's rallies this is Charlotte in North Carolina so same uh same [Applause] place and I think that counts for something right that that's not that is data that is a data point that is important in trying to work out which direction this uh election is going in now there's a caveat to apply to this video so when Cela Harris was talking about people are leaving bored and exhausted uh this is Trump's uh rally in worldwood where a lot of people were leaving so this is someone who was there said this is my video I've recorded it this was people leaving so he was still talking here like that is him on screen he is talking I'll just mute that now so this is while it was on and there were crowds and crowds of there were a lot of people just consistently leaving through his his rally there the flip side is and CNN looked into this so CNN did a bit of report on this and said actually it was a really hot day you can see it was a hot day earlier people were queuing for quite a long time as we saw in the in the Harris video and there was a lot of heat exhaustion and people are tired having queued for a long time and when we spoke to some people said CNN that was the opinion that they were giving it's wasn't because they were bored uh and didn't approve of trump but because they it just been a long day but it seems kind of weird though still to spend 6 hours or 3 hours or how I don't know how long queuing for a trump rally and then I mean that's the thing you're waiting to go to that's the excitement and the sense of being there and seeing your idol or whoever and then leaving 2/3 of the way through I I I don't quite I still don't get that um it's not like leaving a football match in in the 85th minute where it's five minutes to go and you're losing 41 you're like we ain't ever going to win this and I've got to you know I've got to get my car out from the car par before everyone else gets it or get to the train before which often happens with football matches no this isn't like you're not losing this is a this is a rally where you want this guy to win you want to be part of that experience and you're leaving two-thirds of the way through the the rally so you know that is another data point make of it what you will now um we talk about P so going back to the idea of of haris going to Pennsylvania this is super important MSNBC here talk about it K Harris is in Pennsylvania tonight which may very well be the most important Tipping Point State in this year's election vice president spoke to a crowd of thousands in wilbury it's a former coal mining town in lern County Place Donald Trump won by more than 14 points in 2020 however crucially so this is one of these kind of rural places so this is lzone County somewhere else in Pennsylvania probably it might not be it might be the wils bar place it might be somewhere else um because they obviously do a number of different places but as Chris Hayes says you know this has been already chipped away at from 2016 to 2020 and what C Harris is looking at doing is taking some extra percentage from here from there generating that enthusias and stealing a couple of those voters from the center or from the from the other side his margin 2020 was Slimmer than it was in 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 19 points and that keeping that Trent going is the formula for Statewide success in Pennsylvania kamla Harris needs to keep her attention on places like wilbury where she is not going to win outright but she could lose by less than her predecessor did and every little bit help get over the top and win the all important state Austin Davis is the Democratic lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania so that's exactly right so it's just chipping away at these particular counties that are that are arguably you know pro- Republican but just taking a few perc adding to the trend that already exists there uh so this is someone else saying uh looking at the Trump um a trump rally so what sort of so the size of the rally there a lot smaller there's quite a lot of empty seats at the top he could be caught at the wrong time I don't know again pitch assaults but uh yeah look up there the whole quarter of that place is not is not uh filled and that's nothing compared to that Arena we just seen so 550 lonely ass people showed up to this obviously this person's not a fan pathetic Trump rally in Tucson Arizona and no one wants to yeah etc etc when you talk about dogs and cats and blah blah blah so okay but I think that that is a that is again another data point now talking about what's then being said in these rallies as uh John cry says these are straight up Hitler talking points this is worrying so again like it's about attracting and persuading those who are persuadable in the middle and on the other side who are maybe disaffected with the other side so for Trump he's got his base forget about your base you've done it don't worry about about that don't say Bonker stuff that's going to really fire up the base you've got that right get the middle ground and try and get some disaffected uh Harris voters maybe people who are upset about the direction of travel concerning Israel okay might be difficult because You' go even harder on Israel I don't know what it what it might be maybe some of those RFK voters and that kind of person but but don't be saying Bonkers things that is going to turn off the middle and everyone else and then you look at what Harris is doing and she's all about Unity etc etc and you can just see the massive difference in approach that these two campaigns have and illegal Haitians he came in illegal Haitian migrants taking over a beautiful place it was so beautiful Springfield Ohio I was there I campaigned there a while ago Springfield who was so beautiful now it's just what a place and of course this is It's really divisive and it's also incorrect so these aren't illegal migrants these are legal migrants that have been given Refugee status and are now well they're not illegal M it's just he's lying and talking about how it's a terrible place and actually they've gone around there you've had Republicans in Springfield complain about this that there's now been Bond threats schools have had to be cleared out because all this divisive rhetoric that's been um all these all this disinformation that's been spread concerning the migrant population uh Haitian population and community in Springfield can you imagine you have this small little Community all of a sudden you have 20,000 illegals in your community nobody knows where they come from he's literally said the Haitian nobody know like I I know you can talk about Hyperbole and it's just the way he talks yeah but just stop it mate just let's just stop saying stuff that is just demonstrably false or nonsensical nobody knows where they come from and we'll find out later he says these Haitians illegal so Haitian illegal immigrants well they're not illegal they are legal migrants they are Haitian nobody knows where they came from you just told us where they came from send them back to Venezuela they don't come from Venezuela you just told us they came from Haiti Haiti what like ah and then you're wondering why he's not doing so well and the he just word salad I'm angry about Young American girls being raped and sodomized and murdered by Savage criminal aliens right I'm telling you now that is disgusting rhetoric so imagine you are a legal Haitian migrant and you listen to this or you you imagine the people that are listening to that and how they would then if they believe that how would they would then look at those those migrants and that Community like he has absolutely no um empirical justification for what he's saying there and let's just's just listen to that again knows where they come from I'm angry about Young American girls being raped and sodomized and murdered by Savage criminal aliens I mean I could finish the video here and I'll be like that's done like if that's who you want to vote for you and I have got just some fundamental differences because I find that quite disgusting now we're going to look at some of these claims in in a while with regard to uh debunking those claims and I did that in the last video with regard to criminality actually I'll just very quick oh no no we we we'll come to that later so again on this campaign Trail this is him but I was very happy because I got the endorsement of the vice president's family and I got the endorsement of the vice president's [Applause] brother so people give Trump a bit of a free pass when he makes these massive mistakes I'll explain the mistakes in a second people just let him off whereas had Biden said that they would have been going nuts about this so what he's talking about it seems is the Vice Presidential nominee Tim Wes's family famously some distant relatives were wearing wal's family for Trump or Wales for Trump except they had a a um an apostrophy then they shouldn't have had it but you know that's what happens when you uh well whatever anyway W is for Trump and this was a big thing in the in his ecosystem which which is oh we've got Tim won's family turning against Tim wson voting for me but they weren't like close family this is like I don't know quite distant so but anyway he's not the vice president he is a Vice Presidential nominee and he's a governor but he's not the vice president so that's interesting and then he says I've got the endorsement of the vice president's brother and I think who he's referring to there is Obama's Kenyan brother who has got citizenship in the us who's also a little bit off the wall I think but anyway he's endorsed Trump so he's conflated two people together here neither of which are vice president but I was very happy because I got the endorsement of the vice president's family and I got the endorsement of the vice president's brother and even even sent me a contribution and and I was very happy because Barack Hussein Obama his brother as you know endorsed me so no his brother endorsed me so but I was very happy because I got the end maybe I don't know maybe Tim W's brother is is endorsing Trump as well uh and I I in fact I probably could should go and check that yeah I think basically he's just sort of corrected himself after that there's a whole thing about his family that that picture of the family but they're quite distant it's being fact checked by PolitiFact and others does him wal's family back Trump um Trump tries to use wal's family against him and fails his uh hilariously blah blah blah so anyway no it doesn't seem like that is the case so he has just got that flat out wrong and that is another incorrect claim there from uh from Trump so you neither walz's vice president nor Obama anyway he gets away with that now another this is remember this is the same uh rally I was told if I got 63 million votes which is what I got in 2016 you can't lose just get 63 I got close to 12 million more votes than that and we lost but we didn't lose what what and we're never going to let that happen again in this country I was told if I got now there's some r around that way there there's rhetor he's using at the moment that skirts very close to we won't let any like we won't let that happen again okay we won't let us lose again it's not going to happen or it's the idea that actually we're going to purge a government with project 2025 and we're not going to let we're literally structurally changing so it can't happen again and he said a lot of things recently that can be read in both ways that I think are incredibly dangerous that kind of anti-democratic rhetoric is dangerous anyway um and then he he says this so Pennsylvania remember this when you have to go to vote okay just remember this 2,000% increase it's a small so he's not in Pennsylvania so again if Biden had done that people would have gone nuts Trump does that no one bats an eyelid he's talking to an arizonan uh audience and he says Hey Pennsylvania remember this now what I think Harris has upper sleeve is Tim Walls and I think I've been more and more impressed with Tim walls' rhetoric and oratory and his his his skills with delivering speeches as someone who had never given teleprompter speeches he's very very natural and I like the way he gesticulates and and Taps the lecturn and stuff like that there's a whole lot in this video that that is well worth looking at from this speech that he gives it's a really good Tim Walls speech I'm just going to play you this clip though what just one clip from it a lot of reasons my God too many to list time we're here a lot of reasons this guy shouldn't get anywhere near the White House again but we have a responsibility and can to tell people what the alternative is because what he did not do he did not say one thing what he would do to make life better for the American people so you can see this is going to be a campaign theme for both Harris and wol which is like he he's not talking to you and it's true and it's good this is a sensible thing to do what is he saying about what is he saying to you concerning your life and what how your life would be better like when he's talking about immigration it's often on the southern border scaring people concerning things down there but someone up in say Pennsylvania or up in Wisconsin or wherever like how is that as relevant to them what's what's Trump doing now of course immigration scares everyone when it's demonized in such a way but there needs to be a positive and this is where Trump I think is failing is not generating a positive vision of the future for America he's he's presenting a dystopian future if you vote for Harris and he's presenting a dystopian present by saying he's doing down the US he's always doing it down say it's terrible everything's terrible oh it's awful oh migration crime and this isn't true of course like the data doesn't support his claims but he's not being positive and unifying enough not once remember sorry the sound is not very good so you can't the crowd comes across really tiny and whatnot after he came down his golden escalator he said this would be easy this would be easy I would have a health care plan on day one that was N9 years ago but look it's progress apparently he has the concepts of a plan really super important point so again doesn't have plan for the future so if if I was in government for 4 years and had promised so Trump 2016 to 2020 had promised the electorate who had voted me in that I was going to repeal Obamacare the ACA Affordable Care Act and and present a a a much better alternative I would expect I'd expect that I should have fleshed out those plans maybe 6 months into my tenure if I was promising an infrastructure Bill to my lecturer whilst I was in charge of the country I would expect 6 months at the most before that plan was presented to the electorate and delivered through Congress on both of those topics he did nothing for four years and yet promised it every single day what's your plan to repeal the ACA and provide an alternative what's your infrastructure plan then he had four years in the wilderness 26 26 sorry 2020 to 2024 what's he done to develop that plan so he's basically outsourced th that plan making to project 2025 authors of the Heritage Foundation and others said right go and write me a plan they're going writing a plan but he doesn't have the knowledge so Trump literally is devoid of granular detailed knowledge about politics and policy I actually think Trump is not clever enough to run as president of the US he's an empty vessel that gets rolled out so that other people who are clever enough but are nefarious and Insidious and deeply problematic they are the real power uh the the movers and shakers and ideologues Trump isn't he's kind of vacuous what he's challenged on stuff what is your plan for healthcare I have do do you have a plan well I've got concepts of a plan that's what the the Harris ticket is going to nail now they are going to they are going to use that against Trump and it's and to be fair to Trump like I'm I'm not going to be overly harsh here but it is not good enough to run for president and not have a freaking healthare plan and that was the case 8 years ago nine years ago how how has that happened how do you what are you doing in this game what is this about but of course it's not about healthare policy like if I was running for president I'd be like how do I make the world how do I make my country a better place for all these citizens in all these different domains I'd be thinking oh right what's the best what's the best um iteration of healthare that will have the most success in all of these with all of these metrics I'll be think thinking about how how how do we provide that he doesn't give a monkey's ass he's like I don't care whatever you guys tell me uh immigration's terrible Haitians eat eat geese um I'm cool though and everything just comes back to him it's just about him oh I'm amazing I'm this I'm that and you go and listen to any of his speeches is and tell me like you should have a drinking game drink for every time he says how wonderful he is or brings the conversation back round to or I did the most the greatest you've ever seen he it's the best you've no one's ever seen anything greater than what I did every bit this just massive narcissism I taught high school for 20 years every one of my kids everyone everyone every one of my kids had a better excuse for not doing their work than that they never told me they had a concept of the plan so look on every single issue vice president Harris is standing on those issues with you and your family it is clear Donald Trump has no plan for you his agenda his agenda is about him and the thing is I will say this yes while he didn't articulate it the other night they've made it easy for us to know what they're going to do because they wrote it in a 900 page document called project 2025 I keep asking this who is asking for that agenda who is asking for that agenda who is asking except folks that want to take control over your lives that's the only people asking for it and by the way while that so I I think that's absolutely right and he talked previously in that speech about how he was uh or how Harris was you know it's like wed to get families back around the table talking about about you know what Harris can do for them and just this idea of like proper politics and and caring empathetic Politics as well just yeah I don't think you're seeing that in the Trump campaign okay just before we move on um this I think is interesting especially for people who are concerned with the Ukraine War uh interesting to see the Harris campaign is doing this presumably to appeal to Ukrainian Americans are they much of a voting block says Chris OWI actually it's more than that it's to appeal to Eastern European Americans like polish Americans etc etc so the Harris campaign is running a series of ads when Mong Warriors in in particularly I think the Battleground States up the North like the Great Lake States I think where they've got this isn't just a nationwide thing and there are RIS risks associated with this I think because if you try and highlight the Ukraine war too much I think that can get some of those magga voters pushing back but possibly some of those swing ones in the middle maybe who are concerned about the spending of money and they don't understand how money is appropriated for things like um military assistance to Ukraine and how that money works like I've talked to you a million times about but um but this is I think again about shipping away some of those voters here and there to just get if we can get some of those Polish American voters some of those Ukrainian American voters over to our side then then we we will win the election when Mongol Warriors stormed Ukraine ke's church bells rang a night warning they rang again when ukrainians rallied for democracy today they're warning the world of Putin's threat to Freedom yet Donald Trump Embraces Putin I like Putin he likes SP he picked JD Vance I don't really care what happens to Ukraine but kamla Harris cares she knows standing up to Putin keeps America [Applause] safe Warrior there you go that that's what that's one of them centuries ago as Invaders let's get another centuries ago as Invaders marched from the East a Polish Watchman blew his trumpet to warn his people polish today Freedom loving polls and ukrainians are warning us of a new threat Donald Trump encouraged Putin to attack our allies no I would not protect you in fact I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want but kamla Harris has heard the trumpet call she will defend our brave allies for their freedom and for ours so what's going on here they data suggests that the best most successful adverts are contrast adverts so it's not just slagging off the opponent it's not just saying how wonderful you are it's saying this is them This Is Us contrast and you you'll notice that this is what Trump likes and this is what he wants this is what CA Harris likes their freedom our freedom our safety but here also talking to polls so particularly aims at the Polish teared down this war and when one man is enslaved all are not free American Presidents Republican and Democrat have always defied Russia's communist dictators it's all about Unity about Reaching Across the a Democrat Republican we're all this together this is for America it's big part of her campaign and it's kind of summed up with adverts like this and defended American ideals Cara Harris gets this if we stand by while an aggressor invades its neighbor with impunity they will keep going Kam Harris will stand up to Putin protect our allies and keep us safe Mr G so so then it pulling it back to keeping us safe so yeah and for all of you other Americans the reason why we're doing this is to keep us safe so um yeah I think that's those are really effective adverts I I really like them um right now we're going to go on to talk about Laura Luma who is Laura Luma and what's going on there so she has been massively associated with the uh the Trump campaign brought on board almost she's on Trump's airplane she's like hanging around I think she's kind of whispering in Trump's ear quite a bit Trump is actually traveling with some of these folks conspiracy Peddlers we should not a veritable Legion of Doom of bigots and Liars perhaps none so depraved as this woman Laura lommer here she is getting off of Trump's plane before yesterday's debate just on Sunday she posted an insanely insanely racist message that if Harris whose mom was an Indian immigrant wins quote the White House will smell like Curry and White House speeches will be facilitated via a call center on quote on this 23rd anniversary of 9911 we should also note lummer posted last year that 911 was a quote Inside Job unquote Trump continues to bring this person Along on his travels with with him why I don't know so he literally took her to the 911 commemoration and she is a 911 denialist as in she's a conspiracy theorist not denying it happened but saying it was an inside job done by the US and there she I mean that should be an insult to the people who were there so who is she CNN did another little segment on herink America First this is far-right activist Laura lomer and white nationalist Nick Fuentes cheering to to the Hostile take over the Republican Party ABS really great way to start this video so Nick Fuentes is a is a far-right white extremist nationalist right he has had uh lunch with Donald Trump at Mara Lago so that's who Donald Trump likes to hang out with sometimes and here they are famously toasting to the Hostile takeover of the Republican party that was what their toast was and that is broadly what we have seen for the last eight years and what we are seeing Luma do at the moment and they're not wrong both met personally with Donald Trump I first met Lumar in 2017 at an event for manosphere influencer Mike cernovich at the time lummer was an activist celebrated the deaths of Muslim migrants but she was being harassed by white nationalist trolls because she's a Jewish woman since then she's taken a strange trajectory with years somewhat in obscurity because she'd been banned from so many social media sites like Twitter when Elon Musk took over Twitter she came back she does stunts like Ambush interviews Frank why aren't you supporting president Trump I'm a successful investigative journalist lumer recently told CNN she's not anti-us Muslim now some might dispute that she's entered the mainstream but she's reached the former president's Elite in her Circle flying to the presidential debate on Trump's plane and to New York as he observed the anniversary of 9/11 there are some rumors going around at the moment because there's on camera quite a few instances where he's got her arm around her around her waist and some people are saying she seems very close to Trump and Trump is seems to be as strange from his wife wife at the moment who is nowhere to be seen on the campaign Trail and has pretty much disowned him at least as far as you can tell from um body language and behavior and Laura Luma appears to have stepped in and some people are joining those dots now I wouldn't speak to any of that myself but just to let you know that it is out there and it's causing a bit of a stir a notable appearance since lumer has pushed the false conspiracy theory that 911 was an inside job she's been seen with Trump a lot we're here at Bedminster I'm with the greatest president ever after rumors circulated among right-wing Twitter users including lummer that Haitian immigrants are eating people's pets in Ohio Trump repeated the claim in the debate they're eating the dogs the people that came in I spoke to lummer before the debate she told me she's attacked as a childless woman who devotes all her time to a man who will never pay attention to her meaning Trump but Trump does pay attention to her and reads her report Laura how are you you look so beautiful as always you don't want to be lomed if you're lomed you're in deep trouble Trum morning everybody my name is Laura L she ran for congress twice and lost but she told me she built a constituency among the very prot Trump voters in The Villages a retirement community that's important in Florida Republican politics she called them Boomers for lumor and they were paying attention when she began attacking Governor Ronda santis for having the tarity to run for president against Trump now what's interesting recently is that she's had this spat uh very public spat with marjerie Taylor green now marjerie Taylor green is herself somewhat of a you might say a nationalist uh Maga Republican herself but marjerie Taylor green called her out for that racist um statement on the White House going to smell of Curry because you know if if um Kam Harris wins etc etc Republicans are very against her her rhetoric and her tone is is does not match the base does not match Maga does not match most Republicans I know and I I am completely denouncing it I'm over it there is a growing Feud that is playing out in public today and it's really exposing tensions between Donald Trump's allies far-right activist Laura lomer was seen with Trump yesterday at events commemorating 911 despite the fact that she previously spread conspiracy theories about those very terrorist attacks yeah she posted on social media saying that it was an inside job so we're just going to go forward to this bit with um Manu Raju who talks about this spat in a little bit more detail and some of her rhetoric but she says what Laura lumer has been saying has been going too far and she contends it does not represent the Maga movement does not represent former president Donald Trump this in the aftermath of her post racist post about Comm har say Indian Heritage that was too much for margerie Taylor green and then afterwards lumer went to attack her on social media so I asked her about this feud between those two and this is what MTG said to me just moments so margerie Tedy green said this is an appalling extremely racist it does not represent who we are as Republicans or magot and that's all correct like I would agree with MRE Ted green here but you've got this infighting because Laura Luma seems have gone too far even for marjerie Taylor green it could be idea of looking at that and saying actually practically we're going to lose voters over this but it seems quite problematic I think for for um Trump to to win this uh election by looking to be unifying and to attract those Center voters and and those swing voters and disaffected Democrats by courting effectively um or having you know lending his ear to a far far right extremist it's just absolutely insane as Adam kininger here says car weigh in on La Laura Luma at the 911 event or the eating of pets funders now what he's saying here is that that you know the Laura Luma issue is a is a real problem for the Republicans at the moment and yet you've got people like Nikki Haley trotting out the the usual kind of like oh the economy and this that making comments about about kamla Harris but not actually dealing with what why the hell is Trump traveling around with a farri extremist why the why the hell is he taking a 9/11 conspiracy theories to a 9/11 commemoration what the hell is going on with Trump talking about Haitians eating uh eating pets and having to be sent back to Venezuela and Nikki Haley and others just as an example is is silent on these very pressing issues that I think need to be addressed so anyway I I wanted to mention Laura Luma because she is a a a growing issue I think within the Republican framework right hello again uh that's you won't notice but uh that's about 6 hours of me being away from the computer and half a bottle of wine so I hope I make a lot of sense or at least some sense in what I'm going to say I'm going to recover some of the ground I covered in the last video with regard to what Trump is saying Visa the uh the Springfield Haitians uh so let's go to Trump in another one of his this is a speech he was making at in California I think at one of his golf clubs saying how terrible California is but his golf club is lovely I can say this we will do large deportations from Springfield Ohio large deportations we're going to get these people out we're bringing them back to Venezuela so he's talking about doing large deportations but to remind you that the Haitians in Springfield are legal they're not illegal immig and they're not from Venezuela so I have no idea why he's going to take them back to Venezuela back they've never gone you know what as Sam Stein says Trump just pledged to do Mass deportations from Springfield the migrants there are there legally they're Haitians he said he'd Deport them to Venezuela I mean what is going on there so now let's go to another part of this uh this speech he made the mayor of Springfield Ohio the police chief the Republican governor of Ohio have all debunked the story about people eaing pets and now there are bomb threats at schools and kids being evacuated why do you okay so just to give you some further context to this as mentioned I don't know if you heard but the Republican Governor the police chief uh etc etc have debunked these stories about Haitians eating pets and geese Etc ET Etc there's there's a video I think possibly the original video that that started this off was some guy walking down the road with a geese in his a goose in his hand or it was a dead goose that had been hit by a car and he's a black guy he's not Haitian either like completely incorrect there and the goose have been hit by a car and he was taking I think there's some article on on it and I I don't know where he was taking it or whatever but it's just everything about this story is wrong and it has been debunked there there is also an awful lot of data to suggest his claims and and we'll very quickly go through through this in a second data to show that his claims about criminality and either illegal or legal migration and migrants uh that these these two demographic segments do not correlate with higher criminality so on and so forth everything has been debunked about what he says and yet this is his reaction no no no the real threat is what's happening at our border okay no no no no the real threat is what's happening at our border so arguably the Haitians aren't what's happening at our border although you could argue they've come through the border and therefore that is a border problem he's kind of Smashing together all these ideas because you have thousands of people being killed by illegal migrants coming in and also and by the way that's a massive call you have thousands of people being killed right this is you have you have to substantiate that because otherwise you can just you can make anything up if if that's the Benchmark that you're setting if if that's the example you are setting here then any candidate running for president can just make stuff up says Ah you know if you vote for a Republican you end up turning into a badger and immediately exploding and so therefore you can't I mean this is this is what we know I mean this is true so if you vote for a republican you will die uh through Badger death so you can't do that you just you can't say that that's nonsense okay that's too ridiculous people won't believe it but to demonize immigrants uh and and falsely claimed that they are murdering thousands of people is insanely irresponsible and yet that is the kind of stuff that he's pedling dying you have women dying as they come up they're coming up in large groups we call it a caravan I think I came up with that name you you know what I said earlier about H it's always about him everything's about him he can't help but Circle back to I'm amazing in some way so here he's kind of like Meandering about he doesn't quite know what he's saying but he does manage to to you know starts talking about women and then he kind of loses the thread a little bit and then just gets back to oh yeah Caravans Caravans car Caravans of migrants I mentioned that term before and it's an amazing term and I'm awesome and I'm awesome for saying that as they come up they're coming up in large groups we call it a caravan I think I came up with that name but it's really what it is 10,000 15,000 20,000 people and there you go just nothing he says appears to be uh justifiable um you know empirically or even I guess morally as well okay um he keeps calling the migrants of Springfield illegal Haitians they are here legally they've not broken the law he hates that they're here because they're not white since this uh this source and illegal Haitians and he came in illegal Haitian migrants taking over a beautiful place it was so beautiful Springfield Ohio I was there I campaigned there a while ago Springfield it was so beautiful now it's just what a place can you imagine you have this small little Community all of a sudden you have 20,000 illegals in your community nobody knows where they come from Hey I'm angry about Young American girls being raped and sodomized and murdered by Savage criminal aliens and as I said in my previous video this is the most egregious claim it's just it's horrific and it's completely unjustifiable and illegal just that is so deeply irresponsible and Incredibly divisive so much so that that you know the Haitian Community is getting pretty angry about it very disturbed by these comments because JD Vance instead of retracting and apologizing he's doubling down and changing his story and saying oh constituents are calling my office saying that they saw someone eat a dog or cat or a Garfield I don't think so he's lying I challenge I ask the media to reach out to Senator Vance and ask him for the records of his legislative office we want to see what constituents are actually saying these lies Rea who works at my office we record the phone number in name of every person that calls our office that's what a legislative office is supposed to do and so we're going to ask JD Vance show us the proof that's right because there is no proof you're a liar you're lying about such good people that's right that's unchristian how dare you how dare you go to church you don't deserve to be a senator that's right and I'm asking Elon Musk I know you were in space today but honestly you act you act like a space cadet how dare you double down on these lies and spread these fallacies and spread these lies through Twitter or X or whatever you call it you're not even American you're South African and the allegations are that it was a South African who was who was uh taking the goose and the geese or whatever the the the duck so you know these statements are completely false and there's no way they could justify or verify it thank you so a pretty angry Haitian activist there you know annoyed that that his community are being grossly misrepresented I I like this yeah you might take issue with this but I'm pretty sure none of these mfers are Haitian of course you got all these January insurrectionists climbing up the capital uh smearing feces on the walls as they did and smashing up parts of it and really desecrating the place uh and yet they're okay they're Heroes they are they're hostages according to Donald Trump but Haitians who have not done what he's claimed they are rapist sodomizes rapists and sodomizes and etc etc it's okay to demonize them but turn these guys into Heroes absolutely screwed and as I and I won't go through this in the detail I did in my last video but the crime rate and someone questioned this because they didn't quite understand it's per 100,000 so these are um proportions or these are you know sort of percentages if you like um kind of a per capita uh statistic so you can't add that to that and show that the the immigrants have more than the US born CI cens in terms of crimes and etc etc these are per 100,000 so the rate of violent crimes the rate of property crimes and the rate of drug violations is highest among us-born citizens so it doesn't matter how many there are if you had a thousand well in fact if you had 100,00 of these then You' get over 200 crimes committed by us born citizens and if you had 100,000 legal immigrants you would get fewer violent crimes and if you had 100,000 undocumented immigrants you would have fewer crimes so you know it it's please understand how statistics work here so this is Steve Ratner saying immigrants are less likely than us born citizens to commit crimes particularly undocumented ones Trump's stories about migrant CRI crime are clearly fiction here's a violent crime bar chart here again from Steve Ratner uh violent crime has declined by 26% since Trump's last year in office quite the opposite of crime going quote through the roof which is what he's claiming crime is actually dropping and again gets back to the the the problem with allowing politicians to be able to outright lie to the public and get away with it so you know is there is there a reason why he was fact checked so many times in the ABC debate yes because he was lying so often he was of course going to be fact checked more than uh than kamla Harris when he has this approach now in the last video I cited some research to show that indeed both legal and illegal migrants are less likely to commit crimes in the us both on incarceration rates and criminality uh there's a Brennan Center for justice article that also looks at that just you know go and watch my last video If if you you don't believe me or indeed just go and research this just Google are legal or illegal immigrants more or less likely to commit crimes than us born citizens in the US something like that go and Google it and you will find very easily a load of journals and articles to uh debunk the myth that Trump is perpetuating and talking about killing cats in foreign countries as I showed earlier here we have a trump family member going to a foreign country and killing a cat so I don't know I'll leave that there we have uh loads of facts factchecking concerning what Trump has said in the debate and elsewhere here's against Steve Ratner uh showing that the proposed tce that Trump is supposedly going to implement right across the board uh will hit low uh earners the hardest reducing after tax incomes by 6.3% in the bit bottom quintile and indeed when JD Vance tried to support the idea that uh that tariffs are a good idea and he was called out he said that uh economists disagree about whether tariffs lead to higher prices so this week the University of Chicago surveyed economists and ask them exactly this question so quote imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers by the country that enacts the tariffs through price increases so in other words if Trump is going to put tariffs on all Goods imported into the country who Bears the cost of that is that is that a a tax on the importers or is it a tax on actually your own population so the idea here is that at least Premier Facey without like waiting 20 years to see whether uh your own manufacturers will start ramping up production of the things that are going to be imported to try and undercut the prices but initially at least when all these entities are will are going to import or export from their countries into the US their goods the US slaps on tariffs so say a widget cost $10 and now it costs $100 because there's tariffs of $90 who Bears the cost of that $90 so it looks like if you're not if you're not too with it you say well it looks like the the company that makes a widget that is exporting it is going to bear the cost of that $90 because you're slapping it on their good but who pays for that your citizens your companies your domestic entities are paying $100 instead of $10 so who pays for that $90 it's not the it's not the EXP water it's it's your own country that's paying that so essentially tarist are attacks on your own country you end up paying that and essentially all the economists either strongly agreed 43% with that idea 52% agreed 2% were uncertain and 2% which represent by the way one person so there are 50 people asked here uh 2% disagree and and the one economist who disagreed appeared to understand a question as asking about a tariff on one country rather than all countries as opposed uh uh that which is what Trump is proposing so they were saying right if you're going to whack tariffs on one country and they import that who's that going to hit but of course that means that you can just buy from elsewhere much more easily so it's going to hit that country more but if you're slapping tffs on everyone then your own country is just simply going to be paying for higher just a a lot higher prices for imports in general anyway uh Trump was a net oil importer but the us became a net oil exporter under the B under Biden for the first time in over 70 years so this was another sort of claim he's like drill baby drill well actually the US is now drilling more oil out of the ground than any other country in the history of the Earth in the history of Earth and that needs to be recognized cuz Trump is trying to say you know with the implication is we're not drilling enough well actually you're drilling record amounts at the moment and you can look at this and see that us has become energy independent and is now exporting is is not a net importer so that's an incredibly important um corrective for the Trump claims now uh what is a a real worry is that a number and Trump has I think been asked this question I think J fance has but here we have uh a senator Mark Wayne Mullen answering this question in typical Maga ways attorney general Merck Garland spoke about the threats um against the justice department and election officials and what they are facing going into the this election he just launched this election threats task force last election you were one of the lawmakers who voted to not certify Biden's Victory if Trump loses and every state certifies as the results of their election will you accept a peaceful transfer of power you know it's it's hard to say what you're going to do and what you're not because my job is to make sure the irregularities are within the standard that the federal government puts out place which is us what is the irregularities that we're willing to accept if it's pass those irregularities in a district or a state then absolutely not if it's within those standards will so if every state certifies the election results if they have their own processes if the elections are certified underneath the standards that they put forth every state has the right to set their well because the every state sets their own state election laws right but federal government sets irregularities as to which how far those can go so is it is it going to be less than 1% is it less than a half percent whatever those irregularities are will take that case at a time I will what this Oklahoma senator is doing is essentially casting aspersions on the democratic system and mechanisms within the US is really sort of muddying the waters and this is dangerous you are starting to see and polls reflect this a growing um a growing suspicion about and and a growing lack of trust of the democratic process in the US it's incredibly worrying you know are if Trump loses and every state certifies the result will you accept the peaceful transfer of power so if Trump loses and every state certifies the result will you accept the peaceful transfer of power it's hard to say what the Trump campaign is doing is laying the groundwork to challenge the result no matter what the result well if the result isn't Trump wins then it will be challenged it just will be challenged you are going to have you could potentially have violence look at January the 6th last time you are potentially uh seeing a a thorough degradation of democracy in the US and not because it has been degraded but because people are messing around with the perceptions of that degradation you've got senators and you've got Trump and his team pouring scorn over the process and questioning that results will be justifiable and and this has led to a position that by default if the Democrats win it has to be because they cheated you have a certain number of Voters who believe that it is basically physically impossible for the Democrats to fairly win an election that's incredibly dangerous now uh we had Taylor Swift endorsing so moving on to our next nugget Taylor Swift endorsed um kamla Harris shortly after the debate and then she also urged people to register to vote in in that endorsement and at the MTV VMA the awards Video Music Awards now this incurred a whole range of uh critical reactions from Fox News representatives and and other magga and also people like Megan Kelly was insulted when she was moderating a debate for um for Trump way back when wasn't she and and she seems to have come back around and is kissing the ring of of trump again it's incredible so anyway lots of people have gone from saying nobody cares about Taylor Swift and about who she endorses or Taylor Swift is no one or I prefer other singers like uh like Donald Trump has said he's he's announced that that he likes another American footballer actually her friend who was a singer he prefers her because he had liked basically he had liked something he had said on Twitter or truth social or something like that is is that pathetic really but anyway like people are dismissing Taylor Swift all saying she's not kind of entitled to political opinions you got people like Janine Piro just slagging Taylor Swift off for how you stick to your singing a bit like you know stick to your sport what what was it that um Laur Ingram said about you know just stick to dribbling or whatever it is about basketball players that have political opinions like essentially for many people it's like you are not entitled to a political opinion unless you are a politician or a journalist no one else is allow entitled to a political opinion unless it aligns with what I believe then you're fine and I'll in fact amplify that but if it's anyone else that says anything against Trump then you're not entitled to that opinion and this is basically Megan Kelly's approach I'm allowed to criticize Taylor Swift and I don't give who gets upset this is disgusting she she wants to vote Harris wal why is it disgusting like why is someone saying I would like to vote for this person and by the way what Taylor swi said was really good CU she didn't urge her supporters to go and vote for kamla Harris she didn't she said I'm endorsing CA Harris I want you to go out and register to vote and go and do your own research as to who you think should be the next president but I'm endorsing Harris because I think she and Tim Walls are strong on these topics now that is responsible it say I'm I want you to be enfranchised I want you to be empowered to vote so go and register do your research and vote for who you think is best this is who I'm voting for and why but that apparently is so egregious that Megan Kelly in some obsequious fawning Trump ad ation says that that that's just outrageous I'm allowed to criticize Taylor Swift and I don't give who gets upset this is disgusting it's not disgusting she if she wants to vote Harris wals she can do it all she wants but to say the reason she's doing it is because of Tim walls' stance on lgbtq Fu Taylor Swift and F all of the people why why is that not acceptable why if she chooses to support KLA Harris on a topic why is that unacceptable for Taylor Swift yet if someone like Kid Rock came out and said I'm voting for Trump because he's strong on immigration that's fine so it's okay for some other person to choose to vote for Trump bro based on broadly one area of policy but when Taylor Swift says that Fu that's disgusting I tell you what's disgusting Megan Kelly it's your Outburst an lgbtq Fu Taylor Swift and F all of the people who want to see these children have body parts chopped off and watch them sterilized under the age of consent and then and now she's just going off on one and a typical Trump disinformation Splurge right off to their multi- gazillion dollar Mansions never to think of them again I'm allowed to criticize Jesus and you go she's a high information voter right she's someone that is is a a journalist a reporter a a an an a news anchor etc etc uh she seemed to have circled right back around to the magga cult here we have a trump supporter who's a lwi information voter and the reason I say he's a low information voter is because his information is very very poorly understood Barack Obama had big part of 911 which part not being around always on vacation never in the office so Barack Obama was always on vacation never in the office at 91 where was he at 9/11 where was Barack Obama in World War II where was he actually world what no where was Barack Obama during the Civil War God damn it Barack Obama was on holiday or he was sleeping or he was not alive cuz he wasn't born oh yeah always on vacation never in the office why do you think Barack Obama wasn't in the Oval Office on 911 that I don't know would like to get to the bottom of that Barack Obama I'd like to get to the bottom of that oh yeah he wasn't president oh oh that was it yeah no any who now going back to talk about campaigns like one thing that is going to be necessary for both uh nominees to do I think is to really flesh out what their policies are and one of the big topics is going to be is the economy and one of the accepted opinions it seems is that the Republicans have got an awful lot of ammunition to fire against the Democrats in terms of the economy but the reality is the American economy is one of the best performing economies in the world compared to all other similar economies they have bounced back from recession the best they have from covid the best they have uh a really low inflation compared to what they did have and although people perceive there to be high inflation in reality the inflation is low and wage rates mean wage rates have risen above inflation for something like 13 14 months in a row so the reality is far different to what people think however the Republicans think that this is one of the main areas that they can hammer the Democrats what what cam Harris needs to do at the and it's difficult because on the oneand and we saw this in the debate where she said I am not Joe Biden so don't attach all of Joe Biden to me I'm I'm my own person I'm not Donald Trump I'm not Joe Biden I'm a new way but on the other hand she also wants to so the job is to try and distance yourself from all the bad parts of the Biden Administration last four years but actually celebrate the good parts cuz I was responsible for that but not responsible for that that's quite difficult isn't it but actually I wouldn't say there are too many holy negative Parts because some of the major negative ones are problems with perception rather than reality and the economy is is a really good example of this so the economy in the US is as I say doing really well and another area they're doing really well in and this is arguably due to the economic policies of the Biden Administration which is the you know the chips act the infrastructure act the um the uh inflation reduction act all these things that have actually put the framework in place for a thriving economy are now bearing that fruit so if you just put in manufacturing boom us manufacturing boom into into Google in this case being unpacking the Boom in US construction and Manufacturing for ities America is a factory boom again um we have a new age of us manufacturing has begun in California American is building factories again um why uh us manufacturing commitments double after Biden um did XY and Zed manufacturing month uh how Biden's big Investments spurred of factory boom transformational change Biden's industrial policy construction manufacturing boom mapping the biggest blah blah blah um admiss a manufacturing boom President Biden blah blah blah the future of us manufacturing is hiding in PL sight Factory boom sweep to us with construction at record levels okay so actually manufacturing is at record levels and there's a factory boom that needs to be sold I mean if you just go here's a there a really good video by Good Times bad times who do really nice fairly slick videos uh looking at different I mean I I've used them a a few times for some really good information on the Ukraine war actually here's why one on what has taken place economically over the last four years plus the facts of us protectionism and the start of that reindustrialization battle will only begin to be fa by both China and Europe for example take the Built America by America Act enacted on November 15th 2021 as a component of the previously mentioned infrastructure future this was explain I have no idea why that just went back a bit there but uh thanks for that YouTube infrastructure investment and jobs act the law commonly referred to as by American mandates among other things that any product purchased by the federal government must consist of 65% USM components with this threshold being raised to 75% in 2029 so what the Biden Administration has done over the last four years and actually Trump did this a little bit as well Trump is quite an isolationist but in isolationism so what you have in economic terms is you have a lot of people that are that are free marketeers who believe in tiny government small government and this is the Conservative Republican platform is small government no regulation free markets Trump is advocating for putting tariffs on everything which is the exact opposite of a free market free market is you let the market decide prices and you do not in interfere with the market from a regulatory uh ta tax governmental strategic planning point of view you just let it get on with its staff uh you have minimal interaction so that's what free marketeers want and that's not what Trump wants so Trump is not a free marketeer he wants protectionism and a lot of government intervention in terms of tariffs tariffs are a form of protectionism where you're protection protecting your industries so in the industrial revolution Britain was seen by free marketeers as like the Paragon of the free market but a really good book to to look into this there's a book by Haun Chang who's an economist called 23 was it 23 things about capitalism you didn't know or something like that really good look at how you think these elements of economic history were pure free market capitalism but they weren't at all and one of them is Industrial Revolution whereby it looks like the Market was how UK um spearheaded economic transformation with the Industrial Revolution but actually it was an awful lot of infant industry protectionism so we had these new Industries we put terason say we were making loads of textiles and and we also had India as part of the British Empire and we were putting massive tariffs on Indian textiles so that it would protect our industry so that our Industries could flourish and then we took full advantage of that and then the free market kind of takes over but you many people look at that and say the whole thing was a free market but actually it wasn't it was loads of strategic planning that took place from central government and my I'm someone that sits in the economic Center so I believe in a kind of mixed economic approach like good old mixed mixed uh government mixed markets of of British governments in in years gone past where you have the free market with some sensible government strategic planning and Regulation and actually what Trump wants to do is kind of that to some degree so protectionism I'm not against protectionism at all it's just how far you take it so slapping tffs on everything that you're importing is not a good idea but being sensible like this so this is a clever sort of thing that that Biden has done saying right everything that the federal government buys needs to be like 65% made in the us or have components 65% of the components need to come from the US what you're doing is you're regulating um purchasing and procurement in a in a way that uh stimulates your own economy so you then start getting manufacturing booming in your country that's exactly what this video talks to with this threshold being raised to 75% in 2029 the same is true for investment subsidies thus if the Broadband Equity access and deployment program plans to spend $42 billion to expand an ultra highspeed broadband internet Network in the US all sorts of technical equipment for it will have to be manufactured in the US and ultimately consist of 75% components also made on us soil and this is a kind of sensible strategic kind of planning rather than I'm going to slap a tariff on anything that is imported into the US which is kind of just n leave you need to just be a bit more thoughtful the same is true for electric cars wind turbines photo volti panels batteries Etc the Biden Administration has offered a broad package of support for Investments related to the production of equipment critical to the great energy transition the my question then is how many people know this like does the general population in the US do you know this do you Americans watching this know what the Biden Administration has done in the last four years to stimulate the UK the US economy and to stimulate an a manufacturing boom do you know what they've done so part of being in government is to sell to the people what you are going to do but what you have done and for for Harris as a nominee a Presidential nominee she needs to sell her successes that she has done and then also sell this vision of the future to the electorate so they know she's got good priors and she's got good she can take that good form and and and take us into a future that is attractive shift away from fossil fuels but in return it requires their Americanization thus according to the standard already in place no less than 40% of the components of a battery manufactured in the US must be made from components also made in the US but in 2026 this threshold will automatically rise to 80% already investors went for it and as the White House boasts in its announcement quote since President Biden and vice president Harris took office companies have announced more than $250 billion in investments in us clean energy and electric vehicle manufacturing meanwhile the package still in includes $20 billion in Grants for example to upgrade and expand Port infrastructure in the US but only companies operating in America and using American Machinery can take part in this program for this reason the Japanese conglomerate mitsui which specializes in such Investments and its us subsidiary pako have decided to move production of port graines to American soil after a 30-year Hiatus these specialized devices will again be manufactured in the United States the Department of Homeland Security also played its role here at the beginning of 2024 presidential executive directives were released to new regulations prepared by the set department they concerned the security of ships ports and Waterfront facilities as well as cyber security in these areas after the regulations went into effect Port equipment manufactured in China including primarily cranes proved to be a threat to US National Security and I don't even remember I reported on this in my Ukraine war update videos and this is all part of building a a thriving economy where you can say right due to cyber security issues and due to the notion that these cranes can be used for nefarious ends these Chinese cranes we are going to say you can't do that and actually that means we're going to build these cranes in the US and look these crane manufacturers are Now setting up shop in the US and etc etc and this is causing a a boom in the manufacturing industry or or or adding to that boom and have they successfully sold this do people know about it what is Harris doing to to tell people about this on the campaign Trail you don't want to bore people you need to somehow encapsulate this in in py kind of memorable statements etc etc so the only thing left for mitsui is to relocate its plants to the United States yet the Japanese should not complain having eliminated Chinese competitors such examples of how the Americans have started to play hard ball continue to abound spending three billion in federal funds on highspeed rail projects with will follow exactly the same rules so will subsidizing the expansion of 40 charger plants for electric cars and then supporting the development of charger networks across the US so what happens though if people go oh this is some environmental policy oh we're dead against this blah blah and you get people like Jim Jordan in in Congress having having to go at Pete Budaj and be paj putting him in his place like absolutely schooling him this is all part of not just an environmental strategy this is future proof in the United States but also putting in place that 60% 80% 40% whatever it is of the components of all these things that you are saying have to be built have to have have to be us um the components need to be manufactured in the US and and therefore all of this regulation is a form of stimulating the US economy which which is a form of which is a way to generate jobs which is a way to generate tax income which is a way to be able to fund welfare programs and education and hospitals and even the war in Ukraine etc etc so it is it is I think incumbent upon the incumbent uh Administration to communicate this to the electorate do they know enough about this I don't think so anyway I don't want to go down that rap B too much more but you get the point let's go and talk very quickly about certain polls things are changing in terms of here some Fox ra rating changes which I think's interesting because fox fox polls are actually pretty decent they're not partisan they use a pretty good methodology and they they work in conjunction with I I forget which um polling organization it is underwrites of Fox News polls but anyway uh Georgia has gone from lean uh Republican to a tossup North Carolina has gone from lean Republican to a tossup that's incredibly important if you start uh seeing some of these like Georgia and North Carolina if they start moving towards being uh being possibly won by the Democrats then Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin will be won by the Democrats and you know Arizona and Nevada will probably follow suit so you know if if these are looking I mean you got Texas within 3% in some polls at the moment you've got Florida Senator within 3% I think of Tim Scott there there are some really significant moves in certain places that that could be looking good um now one of the issues for the Democrats is registration some of the registration numbers have been looking pretty dodgy so August has Republicans registering at 100 41,7 196 against 61042 now that's post Joe Biden switching over to cam Harris so what is going on there now there there are many people that that throw caveats on this and it's really important that you do get caveats because it's very easy to look at headlines like this and go holy crap the Republicans are are doing much better at registering and therefore they are going to get a higher vote come November but the context that is conveniently left out is that this data doesn't include most of the largest blue States like California New York and Illinois um important context states that are still taking voters off of voter rol sometimes GOP secretaries of State uh have as like their number one priority in office from here on out Dems won't be fighting Upstream on this as all changes will be new registrations then um so on and so for there are so many caveats it's really interesting reading the threads below this lots of people saying yeah this is brilliant for rep Republicans and other people going hang on these are really pretty dodgy numbers and they don't represent the full scale of what's going on and actually I'm going to bring in now uh your man here which is uh what's his name Tom Tom Bonia here who talks about registration numbers since the Biden uh Switcheroo to Simon's point the polls are going to tell us that the race is close and as Simon Says from the perspective of the poll averages we're likely leading by a little bit and so the big question becomes it's TR but what is turnout going to look like that's always the question but I think it's even more important this time around we have to keep in mind and I'll just repeat this ad naian because I see people making this mistake uh on a daily basis the polls don't tell us who is going to vote the polls are based on the pollster Assumption of who is going to vote New York Times poll that everyone was freaking out about a few days ago that showed a onepoint race said the electorate is going to be plus three Republican right I'm not saying that's wrong I'm saying we can add context and to your point David about the type of analysis that Simon and I and others have been doing especially going back to 2022 and I think why we all had that confidence to go in and say this isn't going to be a red wave election is Rel that was the midterm election was not in 2022 was not the Red Wave it was supposed to be it was like a red trickle it was really underwhelming and actually the Democrats did a hell of a lot better than people were exped on this additional data to say okay well what do we think turnout is going to look like what do these indicators look like voter registration was incredibly helpful in 2022 because we saw after dobs that surge in registration especially among women younger voters and voters of color so dobs is the repeal of the Row versus W and giving the states the right to dictate to their own uh citizens abortion access etc etc and that was incredibly controversial and led to a massive upsurge in registration particularly of Women Voters as he said women people of color uh people that were going to be more affected by these rulings and and the repeal of Rover's way that was a huge registration and drove a lot of the midterm election voting in favor of Democrats so what could they learn from that especially in the states where we ended up over performing places like Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona Nevada so we know that for the first half of this year voter registration didn't look great for Democrats we were seeing an underperformance we were seeing a lack of an intensity and enthusiasm among the Democratic base what our team did is we looked at immediately after July 21 after President Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed vice president Harris just to see well what's that impact just like we did two years ago right after June 24th in the dobs decision to see who's registering to vote because that's much more important than as you say the sort of uh Nate Sil uh Market you know the betting Market uh analysis this is people actually going out and saying I need to make sure that I'm eligible to vote in this election and what we saw was a complete turnaround and I can't emphasize this strongly enough I was amazed by what we saw after dos seeing in places like Kansas 40o gender gaps in registration women under the age of 25 vot in at a higher rate than all men in an August primary election in Kansas what we've seen in the period immediately following the candidate change has in almost every state exceeded the numbers we saw post Dodge and in terms of so in in other words he is saying that the research they have have done and he he runs a a research organization what the research they have found has has shown that dobs was post dobs was amazing like after the the repeal of R versus Wade registration was insane in favor of the Republican the Democrats and he is saying that since the switcheroo with Biden we have seen registration that far outstrips that dobs Spike of a comparison to four years earlier to that same point in the 2020 cycle we're seeing in a lot of cases a tripling if not more of registration rates among young women of color especially young black women young hispanic women uh broadly young uh young voters overall women overall it's the same groups right it's the same groups that fueled the Democratic over performance in 2022 are even more intense right now in this election and so I think that's huge the last point I'll add if I can throw in one sort of breaking news number is you know just like everyone else we watch the debate we see the excitement the enthusiasm and then we wonder are we in our own Echo chamber here like is this really resonating elsewhere the way that we feel like it is and so we look for numbers that's why I looked at those registration numbers when people were calling uh vice president Harris's campaign launch a sugar high as if it's something that would just go away so uh our team has a a database basically voter registration registration systems hit against our voter file to check people who want to register to vote we work with groups like vote.org and others and we've got a really cool chart on on this on Twitter um it actually shows during the debate we saw a quadrupling of voter registration checks on our system and then when Taylor Swift uh posted what she posted posted on Instagram and encouraging people to register to vote it went up even higher so that intensity and enthusiasm and excitement you know maybe a sugar high in some ways is is is apt but that sugar high is producing measurable market gains what we know is if you register to vote and to lead up to election you have an 85% probability of voting at that election so these are so that that's huge so if you're seeing hundreds of thousands of people registered to vote then you are seeing hundred hundreds of thousands of people that that are going to vote you are going to transform those people registered to actual votes these are real voters who are likely to vote in this election who frankly weren't engaged before and to the extent that President Biden was trailing in the polls back in July these were the voters who we needed back really interesting there and other points of uh interest that could well be reflective so Alaska has just had a poll now Alaska has not voted Democrats since 1964 or whatever it was you had a really interesting situation where was it Mary PA Tava is that her name she was indigenous uh Inu I think uh I don't know if that's the correct term up in Alaska and she won on a rank Choice voting system and beat Sarah Palin who was trying to to get in again up there and that was a real shock and you've seen this move towards be it being Democrat and so the the latest poll has um the Democrats within five of I think the Republicans in with the most accurate Alaska polling um or yeah polling statistics but it's a really accurate pollster that's done that and they are like super close comparatively compared to where they used to be like massively closer the Democrats and if that is reflective of a general Trend in you know this is a real like Republican stronghold that is becoming more and more democratic uh as the years go by then that's a really interesting indicator so the alasa polls are worth looking into check out let's talk elections video on that one um and also I showed you the this Wisconsin video information that I thought was absolutely fascinating earlier on today and I said there are some really key points in this and it was the what the the effect that oh no no yeah this is post debate but the the um the people in uh Wisconsin who are moving away from Republican votes and independents who are moving away from leading Republican to Democrat in a really significant way so we saw that Democrats were consolidating their vote 98 and 99% in party ID Democrats so Democrats who are ID as Democrats who lean as partisans or lean as Independents so I'm a Democrat I'm registered as a Democrat and I lean Democrat in my voting or I'm registered as a Democrat but I actually lean independent so the the the those both those categories 99% and 98% of Democrats are going to vote Harris so you're only losing one or two% to voting actually not Trump none of them voting trump it seems like they're they're voting other but with the Republicans you've got 92 and 91% with 3% of the Republicans voting for Harris in both those categories five and 6% in both those categories voting for a third party or voting differently and with the independence you've got 50 and 53% with Harris and 38 and 25% with with Trump and so in Wisconsin you I always talk to you about making sure that you consolidate your own base so the Democrats have done that they've proper Consolidated 99 and 98% you consolidate your own base you look at the Independence and you try and steal them so Harris has stolen Wisconsin she's got 50 to 38 Independents and 53 to 25 job done and then you look at Republicans and actually a meaningful amount of Republicans are are moving away from the Trump vote there and that is I think really important there's some more stats that looked at uh people who rated themselves as moderate as well here we go in fact let's let let's listen to this part from him maybe a little bit in Milwaukee and stuff but the overall scheme of things within the state not really now if we look at the way people identify as far as ideology this is one of the groups I said that K Harris needs a Target as you can see the largest number are moderate voters at 247 of the sample those in other words a whole group of Voters who were surveyed in Wisconsin most of them self-identify as moderates ideologically speaking break in 59 to 28 this I think is going to at the end of the day this is going to be the key and absolutely right this is the key why is it the key because as we've talked about before Harris is trying to be the unifier that says I am I have a gun Tim Walls has a gun we have Republicans who are who spoke at the DNC uh and who are advocating for us we've got Dick Cheney Liz Cheney Adam kinzinger um Jeff Duncan etc etc you know esper and and all all these other people that are not voting for Trump and are endorsing Harris we are we are trying to be a unifying moderate uh party now that's the agenda we're going for because that's what gets us voted in is that what gets us voted in well let's look at the Wisconsin poll and 59% of moderates say they're going to vote Harris and 28% say they're going to vote Trump and 133% say they're going to vote neither that is huge and as he says that that is that that tells you all you need to know what KLA Harris has done and she has done masterfully extremely masterfully and Barack Obama did it back in 2008 is to have a message that appeals to the left and the center so it's like it's not even like Center left it's left and center and she's doing a really good job and I think this is going to be the death nail for the Republicans because they're not going to be able to penetrate that Center 28% going of moderates going for Donald Trump with 59% going for k Harris that that is huge and that's not a trend after seeing the debate that is not a trend that surprises me whatsoever all right so now let's go ahead and look interesting uh so then we're going to join him at the uh towards the end of this we see if it's uh if it's doing um going to do what it says and this is I find this a really interesting set of stats here I I won't go on the corruption bit but basically many more people see Donald Trump as corrupt um the the point of interest is sharing values so although we talk about ideology and although I'm talking about economy and this and that the reality is most people in this election I talked about this with regard to weeding out Trump and him being vacuous from ideology and he's actually just talking about these simple ideas immigration demonizing immigrants and this it's The Vibes you get off that it's not the detail of the policy and it making particular sense is like The Vibes I get are either like with Harris it's like she's really positive and unifying with Trump he's like imig anti- immigrants and America First those kind of Vibes are they important well it turns out that it appears statistically that they are more important than than the granular Deeds as we can see with Sheri's values Donald Trump is only at 45% so we see that the number that he has in the polls he's not even getting those 100% of those who ident Iden ify is Donald Trump sharing their values so he's down what he's down 2% compared to what this number is and that number is huge now if we look at corrupt is so I I'll probably actually need to go back there let yeah let's go back to this that is way more important than any of these issues let's go ahead and go to that cross tab so let's look at this one shares my values this is the one that really matters the most 51% of people in Wisconsin say that kamla Harris either shares their values very well or somewhat well with 32% saying very well this this is important now if we look at corrupt as well we see only 38% of people in Wisconsin think that kamla Harris is corrupt now let's go ahead and look at the Donald Trump numbers on this as we can see with Sheriff's values Donald Trump is only at 45% so we see that the number that he has in the polls he's not even getting those 100% of those who identify as Donald Trump sharing their values so he's down what he's down 2% compared to what this number is and that number is huge now if we look at corrupt do you think that Donald Trump is corrupt 62% of people in Wisconsin say yes this statement is true this in other words a large number of people who are voting for Donald Trump think he is corrupt really does the Scribe with 47% saying this is this describes Donald Trump very well this is what the issue is this is what the election is about everybody is focusing on oh well what about the economy and this and Donald Trump Integrity values whether you're corrupt or not these are the things that matter if you sell yourself like this and I know a lot of Republicans are like well you know K Harris she hasn't been talking about the issues or not she don't need to talk about the issues because voters don't talk about you know voters don't vote on the issues I'm sorry that's just like a fact this may sound controversial but I think he's right here so the the the high information voters the people on these news channels that are that spend their days talking about this all the time are saying she needs to talk more about the economy and she needs and I've said that already earlier on in this video but the statistics possibly indicate that actually she doesn't really need to she needs to give the Vibes because people are driven across societies so some people are really driven by the the detail and the and the policy but in large part lwi information voters particularly and that that's most of the population are more interested in Vibes go back to Campbell convers M Learn Stokes the American voter back in the 1950s and 60s look at their research and all the research that's gone after that people look at if somebody maybe does an overall good job usually with the economy maybe does a reward and Punishment type of system with retrospective voting maybe they in this case are doing perspective voting as far as what they see K Harris as doing in this election but overall you need to trust the person you need to feel that they share your values and everything people consider and if it and if it's at 62% saying that Donald Trump is corrupt that means a lot of his people are like yeah I'm voting for him but I know he's corrupt okay which which is a sad state for democracy in this country but overall this poll looks really really good the cross Tabs are where they need to be the cross Tabs are saying exactly what we expect and when we delve into these numbers about if they share your values if they're corrupt or whatever we see that kamla Harris looks a lot stronger people want to vote for a candidate that they like that they trust that they feel as honest with them that's going to say it like it is that's what elections are and for years and it really took until 2008 and then rehab it again in 2024 for years Democrats were in this wonky ID or this wonky issue based campaign ask John krey and other people how that worked it doesn't and ask Hillary Clinton you need to have it's it's a popularity contest at the end of the day it's a popularity contest as much as people don't want to hear that it is a popularity contest and if you want KLA Harris to win you got to make sure that you are registered to vote that you do go out there and vote please people in the comments who have been making those comments yeah exactly and so that's why the registering is also so important now I think I've got this in the right place uh let me just check that I have yeah it is and this is uh talking about the uh stats regarding um I I think these are the ones regarding the debate um and and how people felt about that I'm going blue so let's go look at the next cross tab that just blew my mind when I saw it now it's that same cross tab I talked about before but it's of Voters who make under $50,000 a year let's look at this so if you look at before the debate only 36% of Americans or registered voters in this poll thought that comma Harris was best to understand the problems of people with Donald Trump being 43% that number flipped and actually expanded a little but KLA Harris now being at 46% and Donald Trump at 34% so he's already done most of the video on the CNN poll so you saw you heard the Topline figures which were after you had a 50% and 50% before the debate in this poll sample thought that camon Harris is going to win the debate 50% thought that Trump was going to win actually the the the survey the sample skewed Republican as well which which is interesting when you look at the metadata etc etc and he he talks about that but he says the the most significant part of this for him was that the the lowincome people people um that well people I don't low- income is probably the wrong word actually moderate income I don't know American dollars I don't anyway people under 50,000 which is traditionally you know you working class that has skewed more and more to the Republicans and Trump recently even though like in times gone past you'd have Union uh workers skewing towards the Democrats that that's kind of changed a lot Trump's been much more popular with this demographic the before and after the debate in terms of um you know who who uh who they thought won the debate and who they favored skewed much more towards Harris in this group this can change everything because Donald Trump relies a lot on lower income voters and if all of a sudden this debate made it that they're noticing that there is this change and they're saying hm I like what K Harris says this can be Earth shattering this can be Earth moving this can change the you know everything in the election the question is can they make this become votes the problem the Democrat they can start all of a sudden winning these metrics but then at the end of the day people don't vote or they still vote for Donald Trump because he's going out there talking about how people are eating dogs and cats and pets right so in this poll I mean this number right here the Democrats now have the advantage look at what you did in debate take those ideas run with them because if all of a sudden you're bringing down margins and places where incomes are $50,000 and lower you are taking a h huge chunk out of Donald Trump's out of Donald Trump's votes a huge chunk this can be Earth shattering for the Democrats hopefully they can change it into votes we'll see but hopefully that's the case all right so let's look at the upas poll real quick so so and and this is where we're going to leave it we're going to I'm not going to leave it here as in we're going to listen to this part because I think it's really really revealing this is another poll um concerning the opinions about the debates we have the first question made me more hopeful about the future and we're only going to look at registered voters I don't care about the total number of adults if you're not a registered voter you can't vote in this election anyways unless you go register and the chances of you doing that are probably highly unlikely anyway K Harris 45% of registered voters about having more hope in the future now if we look at gave the impression of having higher moral Integrity kamla Harris at 50% with Donald Trump at 29 that's pretty pretty bad for Trump now the next question seemed like someone who would listen to me and understand my concerns again and we mentioned this in the CNN poll earlier KLA Harris dominating that group Independence dominating that group as well very very strong for KLA Harris and another thing too in this that I think is really interesting when they say seem like would listen to me and understand my concern 22% of republic Ians say none I I don't think either one of them would do that's a cop out because they don't so I'm I'm going to translate what he's saying to some degree here and this is this happens a lot on a number of the questions in this ipsos Mori poll which is you know question is which of these um candidates uh seems like someone that would listen to me and understand my concerns or someone I want to have a casual conversation with and Harris has come out screwing much comes out much better in these results but what's really interesting is that a lot of Donald Trump voters vote in a way that allows them to get out of having to admit that they would vote for Harris and so the numbers look like they are they they say none neither the candidates but they are Donald Trump so Republicans that say which which candidate would you most like to have a conversation with well neither of them in other words I'm not going to vote for Trump but I'm I can't vote for for uh Harris in this so I'm just going to cop out by saying none of them I I I don't think either of them would listen to me or understand my concerns and I I wouldn't want to have a casual conversation with either of them but that is basically a cop out from predominantly Republicans here I don't want to say KLA Harris they're a republican okay so they just like say I don't think either one of them would that is a pure copout because like if you look at Democrats it's only 9% right so that's starting to show a little bit of a [ __ ] in the armor from for the Republicans maybe let's keep going seem more like someone I would want to have a casual conversation with again KLA Harris 46% to 31 and again Republicans 24% of them are just like no I don't want to talk to either one of them whereas only 9% of Democrats right again this some rep almost three times as many Republican voters would vote for I don't want to speak to any of them and and that tells you an awful lot which these are indications that Trump is losing his own voting pack so when I you go back to the thing I always talk about which is consolidate your own vote Nick some Independence Nick some of the others Trump is not consolidating his own vote he is losing some of his base here here here are indications in several of these questions that you have Republicans deserting him actually beginning to say I wouldn't like to have a conversation with I've seen him in debate he's a bit of a dick I don't actually want he's not the sort of guy I'd like a casual conversation with and he doesn't share my values and there have been I've seen a number of uh threads people have been saying it on some of my threads I've been seeing it on some of these voting threads where people have been saying I live in Indiana for example was one of mine today and there are far fewer placards outside people's houses saying vote Trump than there were in 2020 and 2016 and I've seen that that's repeated right across the country of the US and across many threads that I've read is is a really common um claim that one Republicans here indefinitely independent she had 28% of Independence even though K Harris won these group of Voters you have a lot of people on the Republican side going I don't want to talk about Donald Trump right that's that's good for the Democrats okay here's the one next one who's the candidate that appeared more dignified 53% for k Harris to 26% for Donald Trump so now we found one where Donald Trump actually is in the lead right stumbled and didn't appear sharp Donald Trump 49% K Harris 22% okay and it'll be interesting like of Republicans yeah only 41% said um said kamla Harris was stumbling and all that there's your cop out of 38% because they knew he lost uh only only 6% of Democrats said KLA Harris and only 16% of independent said so so I guess that shows you who they thought the stumbling more on who was talking about eating dogs was now who won the debate here registered voters 50% for KLA Harris and 24% for Donald Trump and this goes with the CNN poll that it was 2:1 I mean the CNN poll is basically 2:1 this when you take out none and skipped is 2:1 Democrats overwhelmingly thought that ker Harris won but only 53% of Republicans thought that he won and now so this ipsos moru poll shows that 53% of Republicans thought that Donald Trump won the debate but 91% of Democrats did so like even though you've got your partisan I'm always going to vote for my guy rats completely overwhelmingly voted for kamla Harris winning that debate and only 53% of Republicans now Fox News uh analysts can say what they like but data like this is diamond and gives you a much better indication of how that debate went and whether this will translate into people becoming disaffected with Trump and the the Trump Vance ticket and either not vote or transfer their vote to camela Harris so it's it's all going to be about Reg in it's all going to be about um it's going to be about registering um and making sure even if you are registered you get out to vote and then who you vote for and and you might get a lot of Republicans that I would suggest from this kind of data is that you're more likely to get disaffected Republicans who won't be bothered to get out and vote at all this this comes to a bigger question which is will there be a segment of the Republicans that all the just say I'm not going to vote this election I really don't care who wins because see that's where the Democrats were a few months ago I don't care who wins that Republicans might be falling into that trap now if all of a sudden you're looking at 31% saying ah neither one of them won when there was a clear winner okay you might have a lot of Republicans staying home on Election Day that just don't care what I'm doing with this and you might find this really boring going through the cross tabs but when I come up with opinions right I want you to understand that my opinions aren't just pulled out my posterior so when I have some confidence that that Kam Harris won the debate I can look at data to suggest that actually that's genuinely what most people thought and even the Republicans behind the scenes the Republicans that though they might not have admitted it explicitly their answers to these kind of surveys showed that they really thought that KLA Harris won as well and they are getting disaffected Ed to the point where I think you can make a a prediction at the moment at least assuming nothing changes if it is all keeps going as it is at the moment you might well get a lot of Republicans who do not or a significant enough amount of Republicans who do not feel enthused enough to vote for Trump and in these Battleground states where you are worrying about tens of thousands of people that is hugely meaningful they're like wow I watch that guy this is the first time I've really watched him he's talking about eating dogs and bacon and stuff like that I I don't I I I can't I can't go out and vote for him now this one's a very interesting one which of the following describes your opinion even if neither is exactly right Trump's verbal attacks on Harris made me 57% of people saying less likely to vote for Trump now of course Democrats are always going to say that but if you look at Independence 59% say they're less likely to vote for Trump because of his tax 21% of Republicans say that they're less likely to vote for Donald Trump because of his attacks on kamla Harris now if we look at the same thing when it comes to K Harris on Donald Trump we see that it pretty much goes away it is Democrats are are um still less likely to vote for Trump Republicans are less likely to vote for Harris and this was 50/50 and it probably is a split based on ERS um this this is exactly where it is so this shows that K Harris attacking Donald Trump really didn't have an impact at all um negative impact but com but Donald Trump attacking KLA Harris did have an impact but again negative imp whole idea with this debate was just kind of throw debate at him let him destroy himself like she didn't even have to do anything she just let him destroy himself all right so that's all for so anyway I know that's been a super long video but I'm trying to give you a sense of all of these data points coming in and all these different analysts saying what registrations up is looking good if 85% of the people registering are going to vote uh then that's really good and we're looking like we're getting a lot more uh Democrats even though some of the figures suggest more Republicans but actually they skewed certain um States aren't included in important States and um actually when you look at this data is looking very good and you got the Swift Spike uh the Swift effect and etc etc and then you look at Wisconsin poll and you look at the cross tabs and you look at CNN and IPOs Murray post debate polls and you look look at the cross tabs and you start building up a picture that actually Donald Trump is in a lot of trouble and then when you look at his campaign speeches and what he's doing at the rallies and what he's talking about you you think my goodness he's not doing the right things to attract people from the center to attract people from the other side of the aisle and Harris is doing those things and that is born out and the data so hopefully through through this whole mess of a of a presentation talk whatever I'm doing whatever this is you you get a sense of things are looking at the moment I think I as Simon Rosenberg always says I'd rather be the Democrats at the moment than the Republicans I think the Republicans are in a in a weak position at the moment and they need to change things up and sort out their campaign strategy because I don't think it's working at the moment and the stats are looking good for the Democrats but there's a long time to go a lot a lot can change anyway hope hopefully that's of some use to you it's a massive one take care speak soon toodle Pips