Top 4 NFL Player Prop Picks for PrizePicks | Chiefs vs Ravens TNF | BOOM or BUST?!

what's going on guys TTL here going to go over my top four NFL plays for tonight um it's Thursday night football guys that I'm so happy to say that it's the first Thursday Night Football of the year and um football's back I'm very happy to say that guys we're going to see a ton of profit this football season um really quick before we get into the plays there are some things I want to do first off I said I'm going to give a month free VIP to someone that left a comment going to do the same thing in this video so make sure you hit that like button hit that subscribe button and leave a comment it looks like there were quite a few comments on this last video so I really do appreciate all the support guys it looks like there's 31 unique commenters and let's go ahead and get that winner picked and it looks like Sterling Baker 2992 I love your breakdown I love your comment brother thanks for the comment thanks for the support go ahead and join the free Discord the link is in the description and um just open up a support ticket you'll see the area to do so let me know hey man I won the month free of VIP and I'll get that added for you um you can find all the VIP props in the Discord afterwards um we do prize picks Underdog sleeper chalkboard better and Sportsbook bets so definitely take advantage of that um the only other thing I really want to say before we get started guys for the next 30 seconds I do own a company called predictive profits. it's up almost a 100 units in a little over a month highly recommend it if you are even on edge about this NFL season on edge about sports book bets you can join this it gives you the top Sportsbook bets based off of 25,000 simulations per game based off of an advanced algorithm that I programmed completely by myself so highly recommend it guys and then the only other thing is underdog if you sign up to Underdog fantasy using Code TTL or the link in the pinned comment you get a 100 or you get a deposit bonus up to ,000 plus they've been having tons of promos today's is Thursday 30 so you get a 30% profit boost token whenever you um that you can use on any of your plays make it a little 30% extra juice on your uh on your slip so definitely recommend using that again guys use code TTL for that deposit bonus up to $1,000 and let's get into our Thursday night football plays really really excited to have them here guys and um as always we're going to use outlier for our research so let's get started so our first Thursday night football and NFL play of the year is going to be Travis Kelce and I know this is a very popular play I think this is the second most popular play on the board I'm actually going to check I'm pretty sure it is the second most popular play on the board well third if you count the 05 passing yards for Caleb Williams but it is the top played play for Thursday night for tonight so we're Tak taking Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards with 77.8 th000 people taking this so far today people are so excited for Thursday Night Football so people are so excited for football to be back me included though everyone in my Discord is so excited guys um again you can go join that by clicking the patreon link in the description 20 bucks a month but um Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards I think he's going to soar over this let's go ahead and head over to outlier and take a look at this so we can take a look Travis Kelce right here over 60.5 receiving yards and obviously we're going to go off of last season stats um that's all we can go based off of he doesn't have any stats of this year but over his last five he went over in four out of five with a median of 75 an average of 74 receiving yards and we can see bro was just killing it um 2023 he went over in 58% of games 11 of 19 games and we could can see um when we can scroll down over his last five he had a 74.2 receiving yard per game average um the chief's pass versus run rate we can see 60% of plays are passing compared to 40% running and we can see he has the highest Target percentage with 20.2% the only one that is even close the only person that's even close is Rashid rice um with 177% per but he had 100 21 targets last season 20.2% Target percentage absolutely love this we can see um his receptions and targets right here he's getting around 10 targets per game really depends on the game some games he's getting four or five but most games he's getting close to nine or 10 targets per game and it looks like he's catching most of those he's getting an 80% catch rate so 6.6 receptions per game with 8.3 targets on average total but I do think these are a little bit of outliers with four and five right here I think if he's going to get nine or 10 targets he's going to catch eight or nine of those so with eight or nine receptions I think he's definitely going to go over the 60.5 receiving yard line I think he's going for 90 plus personally today um his demon if we go take a look at that I'm actually not sure what that is right now but his demon is 84.5 so that is somewhere that if you're wanting to risk it you could take the Travis Kelce demon at 84.5 I would definitely be willing to do that um the Ravens receiving yard defense eighth in the league 28.6 receiving yards allowed versus tight ends that's lessened he's they 12th allowing around 50 47 48 receiving yards allowed per game but obviously it's a new season we don't really know exactly how the defenses are going to match up but that's how they typically perform I'm loving Travis Kelce no matter what tonight so let's lock it in and let's move on to our second play of the day man I'm going to tell you right now though it feels so good talking about football again but next up we have the rookie Xavier worthy 45.5 receiving yards I'm taking the over and guys I'm really excited to see him in tonight's game um should get plenty of usage I think anyways his Line's 45.5 he put up some great numbers um previously so I'm loving this his first game in the NFL and I think that he is going to show out and um just show people what he's made of so we can take a look at him on outlier but again he's actually not even on outlier is he yeah he's not even on outlier um give me one second I'm GNA go ahead and just Google so I can at least pull up some stats drafting combine don't want to play that video here so we can see Xavier worthy wide receiver from Texas and we can see production score he got an 81 on his production score in the combine which is ranked fifth in the 2024 combine he got first in his athleticism score with a 98 and he got third for his total um his his 40 yard dash was the best I think of the combine like ever um with 4.21 seconds and the dude is just a monster um I am super super excited to see him tonight for his first NFL game his Prospect grade 6.29 um and I just I'm just loving this so I'm loving this spot for us tonight Xavier worthy I don't know if many people are going to be on him or not and it could be a risky Play Just because obviously it's his first NFL game um in my opinion he's going to show out but obviously some people could have the exact opposite opinion and they could think that the Jitters are going to get to him and he's just not going to perform well because it's his first um League game but I think he shows out tonight I'm going to take his over 45.5 receiving yards and let's move on to our third play of the day which is going to be Z flowers over 53.5 receiving yards this is another popular play today 24.3 th000 people have taken this so far and this is on the opposite end of that game it's the Ravens this time and I am absolutely loving this as well so let's go ahead and take a look at this Z flowers over 53.5 receiving over his last 10 he's went over in five of 10 in the head-to-head matchup he went over in the one game versus the Chiefs back in January last season he had 115 receiving yards that game which is phenomenal um last season he got he went over in 10 of 18 games 56% in away games he went over in 50% four of eight with 72 in his last game away um we can see he's averaging 7.3 targets per game with a right around five receptions per game so if he can get nine 10 targets today we can expect seven eight receptions um he's he has failed to exceed this in four of his last five games on the road but that doesn't really worry me um the Ravens are 50/50 with pass rate and run rate really just depends obviously if they get down early on they're going to want to pass the ball more that's just how football Works Z flowers is by a pretty large margin the um highest Target percentage for the Ravens he had 108 targets last year with a 22.7% Target percentage so I mean I'm loving him today the Chiefs receiving yard defense are fourth in the league 19 7.2 receiving yards allowed versus wide receivers 124.5 so they are very very tight on their defense but I think Z flowers is able to get this today um if you want to feel more comfortable with this pick you could always take the goblin at 39 and a half I believe 39 and a half if that just makes you feel more comfortable I 100% think he gets that um and obviously other people do too this was at 30 4 and a half earlier today but for 39 a half I definitely think he gets that his regular line of 53 and A2 I still think he goes over this as well um I have him projected for right around 68 to 70 so I'm loving this match up for him let's lock it in let's move on to our fourth and final play of the day and this might be one some people have talked about it might be one that no one has really talked about but it's going to be Derek Henry over5 rushing and receiving touchdowns you can also take his rushing attempts I believe it's at 15 and a half um it may have bumped to 16 now but I'm loving his rushing attempts and I'm loving his rushing receiving touchdowns um Derrik kenry is just a monster he was a monster last year and I do believe he's going to continue being a monster into this year so let's go ah a and take a look at his stats let's look him up so we can take a look over right here there's his over 15 and a half rushing attempts you can look at that one as well but I'm personally going to go with the touchdowns let's go ahead and find that on here if we can I apologize having some trouble finding it over5 touchdowns right here so we can see over his last 10 he's went over in six of 10 in 20123 he went over in nine of 17 games um absolutely loving this his average was 71 his median was one and we can see he's getting around two Red Zone attempts per game so I mean I'm loving it I'm loving our odds here we can see again 50/50 pass and run rate the Chiefs defense as always as just mentioned they have a very tight defense third in the league touchdowns against 1.9 versus running backs they're eight allowing point6 per game um we can take a look right [Music] here it there we go Red Zone rushing attempts um obviously we're not going to see anything for Derk Henry because he's on a new team um I personally this is one of those areas where you kind of just have to to put in some guess work with him being on a new team he did great on the Titans so I mean I believe he will have a very large Red Zone rushing attempt percentage um just rushing attempts in general I do believe that Derrik Henry is going to be their go-to running back so I'm definitely loving this play today let's go ahead and take it Derrik Henry over5 touchdowns today this is including both rushing and receiving on the very off chance that he gets a uh receiving touchdown but I'm loving Derrik Henry in uh his rushing attempts maybe even his rushing yards and definitely his over. five touchdowns what is his rushing yards at today that could definitely be another play that you could look at his rushing receiving is 76.5 which isn't terrible 65.5 rushing yards though I do like that a little bit more again he's on the new team so we'll see how he performs but I think he's going to keep on killing it and I'm loving the rushing attempts it looks like it is 16 now not 15 and a half but I'm loving his rushing attempts still as well as his 0.5 touchdowns so go ahead and take his over guys lock it in let's go four for four for our first NFL game of the season thank you guys for watching the video I really do appreciate it share the love hit that like button hit that subscribe button and leave a comment so I can take one of you to win a free month of VIP in tomorrow's video thank you so much for watching let's kill NFL today and I'll see you next video