John King breaks down how the race has changed since Biden's exit

We showed you polls at the top of the program here, three battleground states showing Kamala Harris up by four percentage points in each. And we should point out that they are all within the margin of error, which range actually from 4 to 4.5, 4.5 points. So they are still technically tied. That said, they do seem to have gotten under Donald Trump's skin. Whether they have or haven't certainly marked the difference between now and what the race looked like. before Biden, Harris gave way to Harris walls. Speaking of walls, John King is at the magic version with more John. So how is the vice president on the Democratic ticket change the race in battleground states, or has it some numbers? In a moment, Anderson. But first, let's just start with this. I have the map this way, because we are now back in what we thought at the beginning of the year before Biden's debate, before the questions about his age, that this would be the state of the race, right? Six essential eight battleground states after that debate. Remember, the Trump campaign was saying, we're going to put New Mexico in play. We're going to put Virginia in play. We're going to put New Hampshire in play. We're going to run away with this. That was the mood after the Biden Trump debate. Well, Biden is gone. Harris is the candidate now. So at a minimum, we have reset the map to a traditional battleground state. But remember, after those last debates, it was Trump could win here, Trump could win here, and Trump could win here. Not only did the polls show that not bring them up, Anderson, but we talked about that after all of my travels into those states. So let's just look a little may and now Trump ahead in Pennsylvania. You're exactly right. This is no clear leader statistically within the margin of error. But Trump had momentum. This Michigan poll New York Times Siena had Biden ahead slightly. I can tell you from my travels, Trump had momentum there as well and Wisconsin tighter. But Trump with momentum. The question is don't believe any one poll. Which way is the arrow pointing? Who has the momentum. Well look at this in August. Now Harris up a little bit within the margin of error. But in Pennsylvania up a little bit more in Michigan up a little bit more in Wisconsin. So what does that mean. That means if the election were tomorrow and the energy and momentum you see out there right now played out, you would get that. And even if Harris lost Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, she could get the 270 electoral votes. So those three states, the blue wall, make all the difference in the Democratic calculation. If she is strong in these, it opens up the possibilities across the Sunbelt. John, let me just ask you, I mean, when polling says that, you know, the that margin of error, though, in those states seemed really big on to those polls, then matter. I mean, isn't it essentially still then a toss up between them? It is a very competitive race. we cannot say that in a very competitive race that we live through 2016. We live there 2020, you should expect a very competitive race polling as you poll 801,000 people in a state, some polls to 500 people. The statisticians run the margin of error that shows no clear leader. We're especially cautious here at CNN how we characterize polling. So this is how I do it. Do not believe anyone poll any one poll is a snapshot. But when you see a bunch of polling, which way right. Does somebody have clear momentum? Is it a straight line or is it going like this right now? Over in the spring, when I was coming back from those travels, it was going that way for Donald Trump. Right now it's all Harris everywhere. One one significant change regarding the gender gap, right? Absolutely. So there's a whole number of things we could break down. But, you know, Randi Kaye for your program is doing a great series on the 53%. Right. The 53 why women are 53% of the population, the voting population roughly. So if you want to get votes, why don't you go to the big buckets of votes, right. If you can get more women to vote for you, they're a larger slice of the electorate. Look at this May 2024 again, the battleground polls by New York Times, Siena, Trump and Biden. Trump ahead by 14 points. They're among men running roughly even among women. Now look at this. Harris up 20 points about the same margin among men. Trump still winning among men. But look at this. So you're talking now about Harris's vote in the cities has come up. Harris's vote in the suburbs has come up. You have a woman candidate, a woman of color at the top of the ticket. At the moment, it is making a very big difference in the change in the race. And what about ad spending and how much of the campaign spent in, in ad sales since Biden stepped aside and actual campaign stops has gone work? Forgive me for turning my back to stretch this out, but, there's been more talk today from a pro-Trump super PAC that you're going to see even more money come in. But this is where we are right now. This tells you both campaigns agree. Look at all the spending in Pennsylvania. It's about evenly matched. Tells you both campaigns agree Pennsylvania is a huge battleground. But then Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada, the Democrats behind in North Carolina waiting to see if they really mean it, waiting to see if the Harris campaign will put significant money into North Carolina. The Trump campaign put more money into Georgia today. we're going to watch this play out. This will change again, Anderson, when you come out of the Democratic debate. But right now, again, the campaigns essentially agree the traditional six battlegrounds and maybe North Carolina, although I want to keep an eye on that to see if the Democrats if they can see huge African-American enthusiasm, they'll continue to play there, especially with the progress among women in the suburbs. But that's a test case. Watch that. All right, John, stay with us. I want to bring in Scott Jennings, Kate Bedingfield, Van Jones. They also may have some questions for for John as well. Scott, you just heard from John when when you look at how much the Trump team has changed their ad spending, what does that say? Well the map smaller now. I think John is exactly right. They were envisioning a much larger map. Now it's smaller. We're back down to the core states that we all thought were going to be the battleground states. And really, it's still the competition between the Sunbelt and the the northern blue wall. And if I had any question for John, it's really about the state of Pennsylvania. Obviously, the person that wins Pennsylvania is highly, highly likely to win the race. And, you know, given her past stances being on both sides of the fracking issue, given Biden's special personal connection to Pennsylvania, I wonder if John has any commentary on whether he thinks she is going to run or be as strong in Pennsylvania as Biden might have been giving his personal connections to the state and his connections to some of the older white working class voters, where he had a little bit more strength than you might have expected. I think you right. You raised the critical question, Scott, for what we will see. How does she try to play this in the Democratic debate? What is she saying? Or Pennsylvania ads? Are they different from other ads? We've essentially become a national electorate. But let's see what the differences are. But you are right. Joe Biden has a personal affinity here. You see him get to 50%. I can't tell you this. Since the change was made, I've been to Northampton County, a swing county, and I just came back. You'll see the piece in a few minutes right here from the Philadelphia suburbs, and you see Harris making progress there, progress there. She has a great opportunity, but she also has challenges. There are a lot of voters there who voted for Joe Biden. They thought he was more centrist. We were also in the middle of a pandemic. Who say is Harris maybe a little bit too liberal for me, but there's also a lot of voters, Scott, who do not want to vote for Donald Trump, moderate Republicans, Reagan Republicans don't want to vote for Donald Trump. Many of them. We're going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. If it were Biden again. Now they say they're going to give Harris a look so she has the opportunity. But with that comes a challenge. And van I mean, how is it you think that Vice President Harris has been able to essentially run as a change candidate? As John says, even though she is part of an incoming administration with a track record of running herself and back in 2020, she looked like she looks like change. She looks like you've never seen anybody like that doing what she's doing. And so it's just arresting. It's interesting. What I want to know from John is how much of this momentum is just people coming back to the Democratic Party who should have been with us the whole time. Is this is she actually cutting into anything? Is she picking up people that we're surprised by, or is this just young folks and people of color and women coming back home? I think again, like Scott, you guys are smart. You know, that's why you're here. You're hitting the nail on the head. And that's why the Harris campaign should not be overconfident. They should be confident. They should be happy. Energy and enthusiasm help. When your party won the last election, if you can put that coalition back together, maybe you can win the next election. but, you know, so they've made a lot of progress. Like I said, they still have challenges. Can you get the Nikki Haley voters, the suburban Republicans, the Reagan Republicans? Can you get back a slice of those young voters are still holding off because they're mad at President Biden over Israel and Hamas and Palestine. And that's, you know, she is his vice president. To Scott's point. Can she somehow find a way to thread that needle, find the right nuance? There are challenges going forward, but to the point about change, I don't have the numbers here. Go deep into the New York Times, Siena polling. This country wants change. I can tell you that from traveling the last year and when they had the Biden Trump choice, there are a lot of people who are just exasperated by it. If you look at now and they ask Trump versus Harris, who's the candidate that would bring good change, the numbers have flipped dramatically. People view her not just as change in how she looks, not just as different. And and Governor Wallace helps here as well because he's different and he's new. People want new and different. They're tired after Covid, after inflation, after Biden and Trump. So she has that advantage right now, gives her an opportunity to pull people in. Can she make take advantage of it is the question keep Vice President Harris in. President Biden are campaigning together later this week. Do you think they're going to do that a lot in the coming months, or do you think she's going to keep some distance? Well, I believe him when he says that he'll do whatever she thinks is helpful. And so I'm sure he will take his cues from her and from her campaign. He wants to do nothing but be helpful to her. I think he has a as Scott kind of reference in his question to John. He certainly has a connection, particularly with white working class voters, that other Democrats have struggled with, over the last couple of decades. And so that's a place where I think he can be really helpful. I would imagine we would see him out. You know, I imagine you'll see him speaking of Pennsylvania. You'll see him in Scranton. His hometown is a place where he can help kind of put that bigger, broader coalition together. So I would imagine that they will use him, strategically on that front. and I, you know, John sort of touched on the question I had, in his answer to van. But, you know, part of the the discussion over the course of this last ten months has been about young voters, whether, you know, they can sort of overcome some of this frustration that they have, particularly around the Gaza issue. And I'm wondering if you if you see, John, that these young voters see Vice President Harris as aligned with, Joe Biden does, does she carry that, burden, I guess, that Joe Biden has had with young voters over the Gaza issue. or do they see her as a clean slate? You sort of touched on this, but I'm wondering, if you're seeing that in your conversation, I think we get a much better answer to that question when people return to campus in just a few weeks, which is why I think the vice president has a tremendous opportunity with the Democratic convention next week to try to tee this up. there were two big reasons. Young voters in my travels over the last year, were just apathetic about Biden. They agree with him on the abortion issue, LGBTQ rights, the climate and other things. They're mad, furious, angry about Palestine. they think the president has greenlighted a lot of Israeli, conduct that they find reprehensible, but they also had no connection to him because of his age, no connection at all. The younger part, the vibrant part, seeing the vice president out there, her deciding to go on a TikTok that has helped. Is it enough? That's the question for the younger voters who have made the Israel Hamas conflict a cause. That's her challenge. How do you get enough of them back? Because you know the numbers and Arab-American voters. But Michigan, Georgia, one of the reasons those states went Democratic are younger voters. She's made progress. Is it enough? Big question.