‘Remarkably different race’: John King shows multiple pathways to victory

The Harris Walz, campaign arrives in Chicago with some polling momentum behind them. We mentioned that at the top, the most notable result being from ABC news and The Washington Post showing her leading nationally, the former president by three points, which is outside the margin of error, and Robert Kennedy Jr with 5%. But again, that's the national poll right now. Want to expand the discussion to how state by state polling suggests more potential ways. the election may go particularly for the Harris Wallace ticket. how about, more ways for it possibly to win in November? Certainly more than they for President Biden had just a few weeks ago. Senator John King joins the panel. Me for the magic war. So take a look. Shows the different paths to 270. Now that the landscape has changed. Just a remarkably different race. Anderson, you were just talking the last with the panel when we were in Milwaukee, right? Here's where we have the map right now. Dark red is solid Republican. Light red leans Republican. Same for the Blues, likely. You know, solid Democratic leans Democratic. Harris at the moment 225 to Trump's two and it in Milwaukee Joe Biden had one one narrow path left. And that was when the blue wall states Pennsylvania Michigan, Wisconsin. And even if he did that, he would have to pick up Nebraska's second congressional district. And I can tell you that was the Democrats only path in Milwaukee. And that was an unlikely path because we knew he was in trouble and Trump was in control. Harris right now can do that. You can see that in the state polling. You see that in the return of African-Americans, younger voters, a suburban voters who were just leaving Biden back to Harris, you can see that path right there. But that's not the only path she has. African-American support has jumped as well, including African-American women. So the Democrats believe tough, tough, but they believe North Carolina would be in play. Georgia Biden was probably toast in Georgia. They believe that's in play. Now, I'm not saying she's going to win all these. I'm just saying that you have Arizona and Nevada back in place, so you can have a scenario where she gets well above 300. At the same time, these states are all very competitive, as David Urban was just doing. So let's just say, for example, you know, you don't get all the Arab American voters back in the young voters, and Trump wins Michigan. Well, look, Harris still has opportunities, right? If North Carolina stays Republican, Harris still has opportunity to win it. So the bottom line is that Joe Biden had one very narrow path when we were in Milwaukee. Kamala Harris has five, six, seven different ways you can get her to 270. That means Donald Trump has those two. But when you have those possibilities, Anderson, it just changes the composition of the campaign. she can now target those states. Donald Trump has to spend money in places a couple of weeks ago, I didn't think he was gonna have to spend money. We are in a brand new world. John, I know a lot of our panelists have questions for you as well, David Axelrod. Yeah. Well, John, there are states and then there are states, in most of the models that you see, Pennsylvania's the tipping states and it's 19 electoral votes. So there's no other piece, is there, that can you can simply swap out, for Pennsylvania. If a candidate were to lose Pennsylvania, they would need more than one piece. Certainly, if Kamala Harris didn't win Pennsylvania, she'd need to win a couple of other states, in order to secure the 270. Without a doubt, the only one that comes close in this scenario here. So let's say Trump wins Pennsylvania. Give him that right there. That moves him up right there. Right. So that would still have a 2 to 25 if you can. Somehow we tend to live in a national political environment. So if Donald Trump's winning Pennsylvania the blue wall states for example, have voted together since 2004, they tend to go together. Doesn't mean they will this time. We're breaking rules all the time, but North Carolina would be your best option there. If you're getting close to that same number back right there. But so and then you're fighting through there. But that's why, David, if you just look at this, I just bring up the campaign ad spending, battleground ad spending. This is forgive me for turning my back. Just since Biden stepped aside and Harris got in. Look at how much more money is going into Pennsylvania than any other state. The campaigns agree with you, David. Pennsylvania is the most important one because it's a bigger basket. 19 so you can see that this is the campaign saying, you're right, winning Pennsylvania makes it a whole lot easier. David Urban, you, know Pennsylvania better than most. You were there with the president yesterday. So so, John, even more granular, right? You're talking about the states. let's get down in Pennsylvania to to the counties because, as you know, John, this is this is kind of one loss in several swing counties. You have Erie County in my book, right? Northampton, Lehigh and Luzerne. Excuse me. Scranton area. Luzerne. Lackawanna. So those four. Right. Northampton. Erie. Lackawanna. Luzerne. What do you think? Where do you think we should be watching? What do you think is the most important there? Let me give you how I look at it, and I'll give you another option. I tend to look at Erie. I want to show you up here, northwest Pennsylvania. Look how close it was in 2020. Donald Trump won it in 2016. So I look at Erie. Then you come over to Northampton County here. Why do I look there? Donald Trump won it in 2016. Joe Biden took it back in 2020. There are only 25 counties in America, two of them right there in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the Barack Obama, Kerry twice, then Trump won in 2016, then Biden flip back in 2020. There are only 25 of them all across the country, two of them in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. So I look at those. But to your point about the others, let's just look at one of them right here. This is Joe Biden's home county, Lackawanna County. Scranton, you see the margin. Pennsylvania won by 80,000 votes, right? You see the margin there in 2020. He wins it by eight. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won it, but only by three. And a half. So the margins matter, right? If this one is if Harris is close here, not winning it by a decent margin, that means Trump's stronger in Pennsylvania, if you will. So I'd watch the swing counties first, but no question Lackawanna and Luzerne also worth a peek. Actually, you know, John, I'm all about building the coalition. And I know that a lot of folks are interested in independent, perhaps Never Trumpers that Harris can get over. But I'm wondering if there are particular constituencies, like African-Americans or the Latino population or even young voters, that you think she can run the score up. And in a Philadelphia or a Pittsburgh or in a, college town that could give her the advantage, even if she isn't able to pull as many independents over in this election. I am fascinated by never one. How does she manage? You mentioned Maxwell Frost. A giant challenge at this election is to talk to young people, many of whom are motivated by the Israel Gaza issue and are mad at President Biden and by extension, now mad at Harris here. So one of the questions here is here I was on college campuses a lot last time. I am looking forward to getting back out here. Washtenaw County, why the University of Michigan. Right. You move here more to the east. Wayne County is where you find, Wayne State University. does this convention does she start to make a down payment on winning back those disaffected young people, many of whom are also people of color, either Arab-Americans or African-Americans we met on those campuses. The convention is a giant opportunity to begin that effort. That's the giant question. She's in better shape. She's not in good enough shape yet to say Michigan or some of these other places are locked. That's David Irvin's band on the soundtrack, but try to drown out the Democratic question. Oh, I want to ask you. I mean, common wisdom tells us the top of the ticket either boosts or drags down ballot candidates. But there's this thought that now Arizona and North Carolina are potentially in play for Kamala Harris. And Republicans have two very polarizing candidates, Kari Lake in Arizona. And then Mark Robinson, running for governor in North Carolina. Is there a scenario we're having these candidates that have some major vulnerabilities could actually hurt Donald Trump's chances in those critical battlegrounds? I think it's I think it's a critical test. So let me just go to North Carolina and use that example. This is the presidential map in 2020. But you mentioned Mark Robinson. He's the Republican candidate for governor. He's out there, shall we say, right. So why does that matter? Look how close this was. Look how close this was, 49.9 to 48.6. So what the Democrats believe is if you take Trump and then you take Robinson, and then you go here and here and you try to improve your standing in the suburbs, right? You try to improve your standing in the suburbs by saying they are so extreme. Now, Biden did pretty well in the suburbs last time, but if you just come into the Raleigh Durham area here and you bring it out, come on for me, there you go. You know, 62%, that's pretty good. Move over to Durham, 80% there. So the question is can you boost those numbers where the Democrats are just a little bit more because the state is so close? Again, sometimes the tiniest margins make a difference, and sometimes a candidate out of the mainstream can help.