New poll shows Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump overall in 2024 presidential election

I'M MARK RIVERA THIS MORNING. WE'RE LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS WEEK'S DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION IN CHICAGO AND THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE. DEMOCRATS HAVE CHOSEN VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS TO LEAD THEM INTO NOVEMBER. AND REPUBLICANS PICKED FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP. A NEW ABC NEWS IPSOS POLL OUT THIS MORNING SHOWS TRUMP STILL HAS THE UPPER HAND ON ISSUES LIKE THE ECONOMY AND INFLATION, BUT VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS IS LEADING WHEN IT COMES TO VOTE PREFERENCE AMONG ALL ADULTS. HARRIS IS AT 50% COMPARED TO TRUMP'S 45 AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS. HARRIS LEADS 49 TO 45, AND SHE HAS A SIX POINT LEAD AMONG LIKELY VOTERS AT 51 TO 45. ABC SEVEN POLITICAL ANALYSTS LAURA WASHINGTON AND PROFESSOR E.J. FAGAN FROM UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, CHICAGO ARE BACK TO TALK MORE ABOUT THIS. SO LOOKING AT THE POLL AND NOW THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN IS OUT OF THE RACE, DO YOU THINK MORE VOTERS ARE ENERGIZED TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS ELECTION? >> ABSOLUTELY. I THINK THAT'S WHAT THIS REFLECTS. UH, REMEMBER BEFORE BIDEN GOT OUT OF THE RACE, YOU HEARD A LOT IN THE POLLS ABOUT THE DOUBLE HATERS, UH, FOLKS THAT DIDN'T LIKE EITHER DONALD TRUMP OR JOE BIDEN? WELL, WITH JOE BIDEN STEPPING ASIDE, SOME OF THAT, SOME OF THAT HOSTILITY DISAPPEARS. AND KAMALA HARRIS IS OBVIOUSLY THE BIG BENEFIT OF THAT. AND SHE'S BEEN GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION, A LOT MORE ATTENTION THAN BIDEN WAS EVEN GETTING BEFORE HE GOT OUT. AND SO THAT'S THAT'S OCCURRING FAVOR FOR HER IN THE POLLS. >> YEAH, SHE'S WINNING, LEADING WITH BASICALLY ALL THE SUBGROUPS IN THE SAME MARGINS THAT BIDEN WON IN 2020. IN FACT, ARGUABLY A LITTLE BIT BETTER. ONE DIFFERENCE, ONE REASON WHY SHE'S LEADING BY SIX WITH LIKELY VOTERS RATHER THAN 3 OR 4 IS THAT THE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS HAVE BECOME A LARGER PART OF THE ELECTORATE SINCE THEN. SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTERS HAVE AGED OUT AND DEMOCRATIC MILLENNIALS LIKE MYSELF ARE GETTING INTO THAT PRIME VOTING AGE WHERE THEY'RE STARTING TO TURN OUT QUITE A LOT. HOW MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD VOTERS BE PAYING TO THESE THESE POLLS? >> AND I GUESS, HOW MUCH SHOULD CAMPAIGNS BE PAYING TO THEM AS WELL? >> NOT THAT MUCH. UM, YOU KNOW, THIS IS THIS RACE WILL BE WILL BE FOUGHT IN SWING STATES. THIS IS A NATIONAL POLL. BUT, YOU KNOW, IF THESE POLL NUMBERS ARE CORRECT, IT'S NOT REALLY GOING TO MATTER. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE ISN'T REALLY GOING TO MATTER. THIS IS GOING TO BE A WIN FOR HARRIS AND WALLS. UM, IF IT GETS CLOSER, IF IT'S WITHIN TWO POINTS, THEN YOU WANT TO START PAYING ATTENTION TO THE SWING STATES. YEAH >> AND IT MADE IT MAY BECOME CLOSER. I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF UNKNOWNS GOING INTO SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER. AND THESE POLLS, THEY I THINK MORE THAN ANYTHING THEY REFLECT ENERGY AND MOMENTUM. FOR HARRISON, FOR THE FOR THE CAMPAIGN. AND THAT'S AND THAT'S ALWAYS A GOOD THING, POSITIVE THING, ESPECIALLY TO COME OUT COME OUT OF THE CONVENTION BECAUSE SHE'S LIKELY TO GET EVEN A BIGGER BOUNCE THAN WE SEE RIGHT NOW COMING OUT OF THE CONVENTION. AND AS WE MENTIONED BEFORE, WHY IT'S SO IMPORTANT FOR HER TO DEFINE HERSELF. >> YEAH. AT THIS CONVENTION, AS, AS SO MANY ARE SORT OF BECOMING REACQUAINTED WITH HER, EVEN THOUGH SHE WAS VICE PRESIDENT. YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THESE WORDS, WEIRD AND RADICAL, THOSE ARE THE WORDS THAT WE'RE HEARING FROM A WEIRD FROM THE DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN FOR REPUBLICANS OR FROM FOR DONALD TRUMP SPECIFICALLY, UH, AND RADICAL VICE VERSA, FOR REPUBLICANS, DONALD TRUMP TOWARDS DEMOCRATS. SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THOSE, HOW EFFECTIVE ARE THOSE SORT OF MONIKERS FOR EACH OF THE PARTIES IN EACH OF THE CANDIDATES? >> I GUESS IT'S WEIRD. WE'RE NOT GOING TO HEAR TOO MUCH ABOUT GOING FORWARD. I THINK IT'S PRETTY MUCH PLAYED ITS WAY OUT. IT WAS EFFECTIVE TO DEFINE JD VANCE, BUT I THINK THAT IT'S ABOUT THE LAST WE'LL HEAR OF IT. RADICAL REPUBLICANS SAY THAT EVERY ELECTION, EVERY ELECTION, THEY'RE GOING TO CALL DEMOCRATS COMMUNISTS. AND I DON'T KNOW HOW VOTERS RESPOND TO THAT. I SUSPECT THAT IT'S A BIT OF A BOY WHO CRIED WOLF SITUATION. >> UM, I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE IMPORTANT FOR BOTH CAMPAIGNS TO REALLY, UH, REFINE THEIR THEMES AND THEIR MESSAGES. YOU KNOW, BARACK OBAMA HAD HOPE AND CHANGE, AND THOSE WERE THOSE ARE POSITIVE, UPBEAT MESSAGES. AND WE'RE IN A RADICAL OR NOT IN THAT CATEGORY. SO I THINK GOING FORWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WE'VE GOT LEFT, UH, THEY WOULD DO WELL TO, TO DO SOME MESSAGING AROUND POSITIVE, UPBEAT FUTURE, UH, LEANING ISSUES. >> UM, UH, IN TERMS OF THE WORK IN SWING STATES, WE WERE MENTIONING, RIGHT. THEY'VE BEEN IN PENNSYLVANIA, THEY'VE BEEN DOING, UH, I THINK, UH, KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ DID A WHOLE TOUR OF SWING STATES JUST RECENTLY. WHAT ABOUT THE MIDWEST? WHEN WE THINK OF WISCONSIN AND OBVIOUSLY TIM WALZ AS A THE PICK FOR THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN FROM, UH, FROM MINNESOTA, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HOW IMPORTANT THE MIDWEST IS IN THIS MIX, HOW IMPORTANT ARE WE? >> IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT. UH, WHOEVER WINS THE MIDWEST STATES IS PROBABLY GOING TO WIN THIS ELECTION. THERE'S AN ALTERNATIVE PATH FOR DEMOCRATS. OR THEY COULD GO THROUGH GEORGIA OR ARIZONA. NEVADA. UH, BUT STILL, THEY WOULD NEED TO WIN SOME OF THOSE MIDWEST STATES. SO THAT'S THAT'S THE ELECTION. THE ELECTION IS IN THOSE STATES, THE NEVADA, THE FIRST NEBRASKA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, AND A FEW OTHER PLACES. YEAH, I WOULD AGREE WITH THAT. >> IN THE MID YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF ACTIVITY AND A LOT OF PRESENCE, PARTICULARLY FROM THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN. EVEN THIS WEEK IN THE MIDWEST. I THINK SHE'S GOING I THINK SHE'S GOING TO MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. YES. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVENTION. SHE'S RIGHT DOING A CAMPAIGN STOP. SO OBVIOUSLY THEY WANT TO KEEP UP THAT MOMENTUM AND THEY WANT TO YOU'RE GOING TO BE SEEING A LOT OF THEM COME, COME THEM COMING THROUGH CHICAGO A LOT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, I'M SURE, UH, AS THEY HAVE BEEN ALREADY. >> RIGHT. I MEAN, WE SAW EVEN PRESIDENT BIDEN BEFORE HE DROPPED OUT WAS IN CHICAGO QUITE A BIT BEFORE AS WELL. SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE DEBATE THAT'S GOING TO BE HAPPENING SEPTEMBER 10TH HERE ON ABC NEWS, UH, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THIS, THIS MATCHUP BETWEEN, UH, FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS? HOW DO WE SEE THIS PLAYING OUT? >> YOU KNOW, WE'VE WE HAVEN'T SEEN KAMALA HARRIS DEBATE ON THIS TYPE OF STAGE BEFORE. SHE'S DEBATE IN THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. BUT THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE IS A WHOLE DIFFERENT THING. I THINK SHE'S GOING TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD NEXT TO DONALD TRUMP. UM, JOE BIDEN DID NOT LOOK GOOD NEXT TO DONALD TRUMP, BUT SHE IS YOUNGER. UH SHE'S MORE COHERENT. UH, AND I THINK THAT IF DONALD TRUMP PUTS IN THE SAME PERFORMANCE HE DID IN THE FIRST DEBATE AGAINST JOE BIDEN, IT'S GOING TO BE A ROUGH NIGHT FOR HIM. >> YEAH, I THINK, YOU KNOW, SHE'S GOT THIS HISTORY AS A PROSECUTOR AND I THINK THAT'S GOING TO PROBABLY BE HER APPROACH, PARTICULARLY WITH TRUMP, BECAUSE TRUMP IS, AS WE KNOW, ISN'T NECESSARILY ALWAYS UH, IS TRUTHFUL. IS HE IS HE HE SHOULD BE. HE TRIES TO PUT A LOT OF MISINFORMATION OUT THERE, MAKE A LOT OF CLAIMS THAT ARE NOT TRUE. I THINK SHE'S GOING TO THERE'S ALWAYS A LOT OF COMPLAIN THAT THE MEDIA DOESN'T DO FACT CHECKING. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE HER DOING SOME OF HER OWN FACT CHECKING AND COMING BACK ON SOME OF HIS, THE FALSE CLAIMS HE MAKES RIGHT THERE ON LIVE ON THE STAGE. OKAY >> WELL, WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SURE HERE ON SEPTEMBER 10TH. UH, A LOT TO WATCH ON ABC NEWS. AND THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE. WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME AND EXPERTISE THIS MORNING AND