Michigan Football 2024 Preview

you guys know here at Crane and& Company we love betting on football we are the degenerates of the degenerates when it comes to college football and NFL betting and we've had a ton of success here last year over uh plus 50 units over 50 units insane just John dilligent them showed up and just took the money but there's always going into the season that one team or that one kind of instinctual bet that I love to lean on right I it was Coastal Carolina a couple years years ago there's always one every year and boy do I got one for you guys this year you need to head on over to betonline.ag to do it you would be crazy at least early to not take every under in a Michigan football game and I'll tell you why obviously they lost a decent amount of explosiveness on offense they do have a new head coach who happens to be the offensive line coach right Coach Moore who filled in for Jim Harbaugh last year and they may have the best defense in the country you know they're going to run the ball and run the ball and run the ball we don't know who the quarterback's going to be it may be orgy yeah you heard that right it may be Jack Tuttle who sounds like a madeup fictional baseball player from like an old Matthew Christopher book right it could even be the new five-star Phenom freshman but either way Coach Moore and the coaching staff knows they need to protect the offense by doing what they're best at running the ball to set up play action maybe limiting the pass game even more and relying on that defense to absolutely suffocate people you can dominate a game and win it 24 to3 it can feel like 48 to nothing and I think that's what Michigan is going to do starting with Fresno State week one the over under 48 man I've never smelled more of a 317 game in my life so every week at least early you Squad ride with me on this one take the under in Michigan games they're going to trying that new clock rule where the it doesn't stop after our first down unless it's under two minutes going into halftime our under two minutes at the end of the game is going to be super beneficial they are not going to take a ton of chances on offense and they're going to rely on defense and special teams plus if they do let opposing offenses get in the Red Zone probably going to hold them to field goals just trust me on this one we won you a ton of money last year we're going to do it again this year take the under in Michigan games speaking of Michigan former Michigan quarterback David con he likes a lot of points but he likes wins more than my brother former Western State Colorado wide receiver blang crane d what do you think about my taking the under premonition prediction projection prognostication it wasn't even a bad move in the Jim Harbaugh era to take the under the way they were playing defense and I mean you saw it in the second half of the Penn State game last year hey we won't even throw the ball if we don't need to throw the football we're not going to throw the football we're going to run it we're going to chew clock now with the the clock rules different in college football too like that's I I love what you're saying there I'm just so excited to watch Michigan football this year I feel like the entire program now in the alumni base can just exhale after a national championship I mean getting so close time and time again to have a perfect season with all that went on last year uh yes Coach Harbaugh leaves but Chiron Moore was the perfect hire for this program this isn't some sort of affirmative action or Dei sort of higher like Chiron Moore was the right guy for this job he's the guy who Jim Harbaugh trusted to fill in for him last year went 4-0 as the head coach really 6 and0 but 4-0 as the head coach filling in we know what he wants to do he wants to continue that identity that Jim Harbaugh set up which is always a good identity when you're playing a game as physical as football tough defense and run the football so yes it's going to be difficult to replicate the sort of success that Jim Harbaugh created there especially when you not only don't know who's going to your be your starting quarterback right now but you lose the most stored quarterback in in in program history and the winningest quarterback in college football history and JJ McCarthy but like we've talked about you returned the best corner in the country and will Johnson the number one ranked player on the EA Sports Game uh Mason Graham at defensive tackle one of the top defensive tackles in the country Kenneth Grant who's running down that that thing from Pacific top tight Colston Loveland the guy who's on the cover of the game at running back and Donovan Edwards so you have all the pieces if they go 10 and two they will make the college football playoff and Chiron Moore will be up for Coach of the Year nine and three I think would be a heck of a year still the question then becomes okay who are the three losses is it Buckey's Oregon and Texas and this is why Texas being scheduled is so important this year and I love to see it yes we could have a non-conference schedule like Michigan has had the past couple years uh you know more guaranteed sort of wins uh with with group of five competition or something like that and then we'd be looking at this saying oh well yeah Michigan is a favorite to make the college football playoff no I love it bring Texas to town let's play a non-conference game of that sort of importance because I don't think the loser of that game is going to make the college football playoff yeah and we actually have Michigan's schedule I want to get that in a second but Blaine when I'm looking at this I feel like Michigan has an identity we know who they are they want to line up run the ball play action stop the run get you in third and long and get after the quarterback's ass they're going to try and replicate that they want to smush you that's what they want to do they want to slowly smoosh you into the locker and then at the end just shut it I don't think they're going to be as explosive on offense which isn't a hot take whatever they want to call it everybody knows that but I think the the methodology and the formula that Michigan is going to use is going to be similar even more conservative even more run based because you can rely on that defense that's why any any points or over under that has a four and then probably a four or above next to it I've got to take the under on that no I agree I think Michigan's going to be for one going to be a hard team to blow out and two I mean if anything they're going to lean into that identity even more this year Michigan want Michigan's going to be Iowa but successful right they can do that and how they did it last year to a certain extent is one one of the least penalized teams in college football turnover ratio I think it was plus 19 if you're going to be a team like this which is run the ball and stop the run on defense you can't be penalized you can't turn the ball over because these teams aren't built to what to come back and beat teams right so you have to stay what on schedule you have to stay on time and that's when it comes to the question of how much are they going to ask out of Alex orgy if he is the starter how much when game one how many Reigns how much Reigns is he going to have for this team I don't know we don't know only guy who knows that is shiron Moore but I wouldn't be surprised if they throw it maybe 10 times a game I I think 10 to 15's probably going to be think it'll be that few I I think it'll be that few especially early as they try and figure out because again we've seen them have a quarterback competition that goes into the year you know you you feel like outside of last year that's what they were doing I mean they were basically having triy outs during the non-conference David let's go and pull Michigan schedule up but right now from who you're talking to David obviously you have connections inside that building inside that facility who do you think is going to be the starting quarterback at Michigan and why I get I I thought that it was going to be Alex orgy but then this is what Kirk Campbell the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach just said and this is from the wolverine.com our friends over at on three uh he said about Alex orgy Alex is one of the best 11 players on offense he's going to have to touch the football we will have a plan for him to touch the football that sort of statement you guys coach you tell me that sort of statement doesn't indicate that he's going to be the starting quarterback it means he's going to have a pack package form the way we've seen Alex orgy uh come into games in the past when I was in an arbor last month I did get to meet Jack Tuttle Jack tuttle's almost our age you know I mean he was going back at Indiana when kin dbor was there obviously he's very capable I thought Davis Warren played really well in the spring game so look it's going to be an open competition throughout Camp they have guys who can do a lot of things I me we talk about Alex orgy 63 what 235 something like that clearly he can run I'd be running Q power as much as possible but we'll see so this is the only joke I'm going to make so if he's kind of a Wildcat guy if he's in there is it technically the wild orgy I guess you could say that Robert Griffin I thir would say that actually take that if you just have a wild quarterback a wild cat quarterback for the entire season who struggles to throw the football I don't care how good your defense is in this day and age in college football like you're going to struggle it's going to be I don't know if they're going to win nine or 10 games if Alex orgy really struggles to throw the football well we want to know what you think the phone lines are going to open up at 2:45 we're going to talk with David Pollock going to get to the chat here in one second but I do want to go through this schedule so we've got hit that like hit that subscribe as well if you're watching on YouTube or wherever you're listening make sure you keep sharing the show we really appreciate it we got a bunch of big news that's going to break about what we're doing this fall and where we're going but first August 31st Fresno stayed at home good opener should be a lot better than them up front like I said the over under is 48 I'm going to smash that under I've never felt better about it and then Texas David and the reason I like this isn't just because you know y'all are finally playing somebody in the non-conference that you feel like it's a good team but I think it's going to give us a barometer on how good Michigan is early with all that they've replaced right are they going to stick with that identity which we know that they are how open are they going to be from a passing standpoint because as good as that Michigan defense is Texas should and with sarkeesian's ability to to dial It Up Texas should be able to press them a little bit and maybe force the action on Michigan's offensive side but at worst we will find out how good Michigan is early or they will find out hey what we need to work on what we need to adjust as we get into Big 10 play CU then you got Arkansas State at home USC at home and Minnesota at home so your first five games are at home right that's where Auburn and Michigan are similar decent chance you can be 5-0 even if you go 4- one that's not bad under that stretch then to Washington which we're going to talk about Washington and Saturday at Big 10 media day at Illinois you get Michigan State at home or at least as David calls them the green ones we'll see with Jonathan Smith there you get Oregon at home at Indiana Northwestern at home and at Ohio State Dave when I look at this schedule I see one I see two and I see three I see nine and three with this gu okay and the three losses are buckeyes Oregon and Texas I would say I I would say Buckeyes Oregon and Texas but what's crazy is the one I feel that the least good about is Texas beating you guys cuz again I I worry about quin's Health that's my thing I know everybody worries about every quarterback's Health but I feel like you know y'all may be a little bit a cryptonite to what Texas wants to do the way y'all hold the ball and hold the ball and hold the ball and run it I think nine and three maybe is it the floor or is eight and four the floor to you depending on what type of quarterback play you get I mean let's just say good let's say be honest with I would even if the gamees out of Ohio State out of those three teams I'd probably think Ohio state would be the best if you're Michigan cuz Texas I mean you're weak too so the thoughts of Quinn not being there are injured I'm talking about getting hurt during the game is what I'm saying that that'd be tough if that happens and I don't know well will Howard right now we don't know and you said it multiple times as good of a roster that is at Ohio State Michigan's defense is good enough if Will Howard is not playing well to go up there and compete but to go gets Dylan Gabriel experience then you go Quinn 's experience I know you have will at corner but there are new DBS walking onto that field in Texas that receiver room is one of the best of the nation offensive line one of the best in the nation so the weak link and the most important link to me is quarterback and that would be Ohio State so if you have those three losses there do you guys see them losing to anyone you know any surprise losses who they're better than you know I mean I mean I I look at the road I I just don't see you know at Illinois I feel like y'all will still be able to push him around even though it's a Bela M coach team I mean you get Minnesota at home at Washington with Will Rogers we're going to break them down uh there's so many questions about their offens line even though they did get one big time transfer in there I just I don't trust their ability to move the ball against you guys consistently and I think you can line up and run the ball right in can I ask you two this are you worried at all with the offense that we're thinking Michigan is going to put on the field with his running the ball and stopping the run that they're not going to be be able to blow out a lot of teams so most of most of these will be games you know Minnesota at home I mean at Illinois what do they want to do they want to run the ball and eat the clock so if you're Michigan if you get a lot of turnovers yeah but there will be close to one to two possession games about that even last year when Michigan was blowing out a lot of other teams they play Maryland close right I mean even in my tenure in the Big 10 it it was known hey if you beat if you go on the road and beat Illinois by one point take that win and get you aren't going to have the 10th pick at quarterback this year well well I I I also think with Michigan's defense and the way they're built and what they want to do on offense a 10-point lead for Michigan feels like a 14 to 17-point lead for other teams like I'm wondering how many teams are going to try and force the action because of the way Michigan is playing that's a real thing we talk about you know does Texas get up and Michigan have to throw the ball more which one of these teams is going to get impatient and try and do something offensively that may be outside themselves that plays exactly into what Michigan wants to do defensively how many teams are going to get you know sped up that's the thing it's it's funny we see this in basketball all the time what happens to these teams that you know slowly take the ball up the court right they get the rebound they take their time going down against teams that want to run well they speed them up and they start making mistakes that's when you see turnovers in college basketball it's the same thing in college football that's one of the kind of the the hidden factors of playing the style of ball well it may not be super sexy you can actually speed other teams up by going really slow that's a real thing we saw it a couple times last year you usually get that with what an inexperienced quarterback yeah so my last question is okay if it's nine and three and again I think nine and three would be a heck of a start for Chiron Moore and the post Jim Harbaugh era you know losing a lot of pieces to the NFL draft if it's nine and3 how does that get you in the college football play I don't think it does I I don't think it gets you in because if it's n and three the way I think right and let's just say and again we don't make final predictions till the end to fall camp but let's say you lose to Texas let's say you lose to Oregon and let's say you lose to Ohio State well that's two losses in the Big 10 right and you would lose the tiebreaker against Oregon and Ohio State so you would be nine and3 not playing in the Big 10 championship game and this kind of goes back to what Matt rule said yesterday that we were talking about a little bit on the show well the Big 10 should get four teams in I don't know if they're going to get four in and that counts obviously the automatic qualifier I think when you look at the 12 and if even if we keep Notre Dame out of it you get the five automatic bids from the conference right the top five conference ranked get get in the top four get a buy so that leaves seven spots left let's say the SEC gets three in so that's two two pass the winner let's say the Big 10 gets three in that's two pass winner that's four extra teams that's nine so we're left with three right does a nine and does that that would mean the ACC and the Big 12 one of those conferences is going to get two in yeah you would think so that leaves one SWOT really I I don't know I think that's what's going to be the most fascinating part about this college football season why everybody that said oh the expanded playoffs going to make the regular season less important it's going to make it more important espcially down the stretch need to beat one of the big dogs and if you lose to somebody you need that team who you lost to to be doing really well well it's Texas isn't it let's even say in that scenario that they lose to those three teams we talked about um you said the Big 10 will get three team teams in I think they will as well so if you lose to Oregon and you lose to the Buckeyes you'd have to assume that that's probably going to be the rematch of the Big 10 championship game you would think right like I mean that's a little bit of a dangerous assumption but if both of those teams are beating Michigan with the schedules we've already broken down let's just say both those teams play in the Big 10 Championship which means one of them already gets the automatic qualifier and the second one gets the first at large for the conference which means okay so Michigan sitting there at 9 and three could it get that third spot from the Big 10 or Penn State does pin State they go 10 and two that's that's the thing does Iowa find a way with their schedule right does somebody else go 10 and two that's what would worry me more than than the nine and three number because if I think I if I think if there's if you have the let's say Oregon Ohio State playing the Big 10 championship game and you have two teams that are nine and three and nobody 10 and two outside of that then it's a possibility uh even if you lose to Texas cuz that's probably still going to be a pretty good- looking loss at the end of the day compared to the other team and when I look on the schedule I don't know if another team is going to go nine and three that y'all are playing against I don't see Washington going nine and three Minnesota USC Michigan State Illinois Indiana Northwestern I don't see them going 9 and three so it would have to be somebody outside of that but again that's what makes this fascinating we're going to legitimately have a bubble and it's not just going to be a bubble for the Big 10 like that last at large spot I mean you that's why we need to make sure you know and I know the committee the it test needs to be part of it I truly believe in that the it test does but the way they're going to Crunch these numbers like they do in the NCAA tournament the way we see it because guys people complain about 68 team oh something's going to cry getting in the NCAA tournament so what happens if you've got a a nine and3 Michigan right with three quality losses and then you've got a 9 and3 LSU or you've got a you know a 9 and three Alabama or something like that like that to me is where or an undefeated Florida State or an undefeated Florida state whose quarterback got hurt which I don't know what the way DJ throws in my opinion may not be the worst thing I'm I'm just kidding I love me some DJ you uh but no we want to know what you guys think we're going to get to uh the rest of the teams here in a minute I mean there's a lot going on today we need to get to Oregon as well in the big Tim all right let's get to the chat Chad hit that like hit that subscribe button if you donate it's on topic it will get read we're going to start off with Ken Ken how you doing man who catches more unders this year Michigan in or Iowa remember last year you were hot on a lot of Iowa you know I here's my thing I I think and listen I know they have some algorithm or math problem they got those like Blaine says Vegas has those two twins with their ponytails tied in the pool underneath the casino telling them what's going to happen it's like Avatar yeah I think they're going to build in knowing Iowa you know is is a true defensive team that has struggled to score but I think Iowa may be decent on offense I think you look at michig you look at the scores last year and even though they lost what you lost you look at Donovan Edwards on front of the game I think they may jack up the the the overs and unders a little bit they may not give them that Iowa downgrade right Iowa makes me a little nervy because of a former Michigan quarterback and Kade mamir that's there so I'm not saying you'd be crazy to take the Iowa under not at all but I feel better like that 48 number for Michigan Fresno State I would lock that in right now I think that's going to go down I think before you're going to look up it's going to be 46 and a half and may go even lower than that I just think Iowa it's so baked in that Vegas knows that hey YouTube thanks for stopping by if you think my brother looks like Andrew Schultz you should definitely subscribe if you don't though make sure you hit that subscribe button