Penn State Football 2024 Record Prediction & Analysis

Reasonable Expectations For Penn State's 2024 Season Penn State football finished the 2023 season with a frustrating 10 and3 overall record and they were seven- two in the Big 10 conference in the final year of Divisions with Penn State being in the Big 10 East you already know who the two losses to they were to the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus and the Michigan Wolverines in Happy Valley they lost to Ohio State by a score of 20 to2 and to Michigan by a score of 24- 15 what made last season particularly frustrating for Penn State is the prior year in 2022 they finished with an 11-2 record they were bouncing back from a seven and6 record in 2021 a season where in the first half of 2021 before that dreaded game against Iowa it looked like Penn State might have been the best team in the Big 10 East Ohio state was struggling Michigan looked really good but they hadn't played much of anyone yet and Penn State an injury to Shawn Clifford and a defense that was one of Brent pry more inefficient defenses during his time in Happy Valley and injuries and James Franklin being himself in big games cost the NIT Lions an opportunity in 2021 in 2022 it was the same thing in big games games but an overall Improvement except there was a difference James Franklin beat Kyle Whittingham in the Rose Bowl and he had brought in an awesome recruiting class in the 2022 cycle that featured Nicholas Singleton KRON Allen Donnie Dennis Sutton and Drew Aller Who Rose to be the number one quarterback recruit in that class he played at times in 2022 as a backup or put in certain series of the games to give him experience but Nicholas Singleton and KRON Allen were easily the stars of the 2022 class when the season began they quickly took over at running back became one of the best Duos in the country and again The Following season in 23 just last year they were once again very productive especially KRON Allen and I can't wait to see what they're going to do this season but there was optimism with the win in the Rose Bowl with Drew Aller being viewed as an upgrade over for Shawn Clifford and understandably so with Mike yuch being in his third year with the program with Manny Diaz coming back with a defense that was top 10 in scoring in 2022 it all looked like it could come together and Penn State was even picked by multiple pundits to win the Big 10 outright in 2023 they didn't and I thought from the beginning of the 2023 preseason before kickoff even happened that that team was overrated and indeed they were that's why they finished 10 and three their defense was phenomenal it was a better defense than I thought Manny Diaz was even capable of Manning it was very impressive especially in stopping the run and they did well compensating for a secondary that was a little disappointing given the talent that it had but really the offense was the real disappointment and it was very inefficient it was frustrating to watch I mean you grinded your teeth watching them attempt to put a drive together against Ohio State or Michigan some of the best defenses in the country and according to Bill Connelly's S&P plus two of the best defenses of the 21st century but then again with the talent they had on the offensive line at tight end running back and quarterback you thought that maybe Penn State could do a little bit more and they didn't and they fired Mike yuch they moved on brought in Andy Nikki brought in a few transfers but more importantly returned a plethora of talented players for what could be a huge 2024 season I'm actually shocked that for all the hype Penn State was given last season there isn't much hype for them this year and I said on record last season for Penn State that 2024 is their year Drew Aller gets another year to mature Nicholas Singleton and KRON Allen get another year to mature the offensive line begins to really have compound returning interest with the great recruiting that Phil Trot has done at that position the defense will always be stacked and with the schedule that Penn State has this year I think that's a real possibility that 2024 can be their year let's dive deep into that and talk about the expectations for Penn State football but before we do I want you to like this video subscribe to the channel share it around to other Penn State football fans and other college football fans who you think would be interested in this content and hit the notification Bell so that you can get notified when I release more college football content whether it relates to Penn State whether it relates to the Big 10 as a whole I don't know I think you'll enjoy all of my content here on college football with Sam we do a pretty good job and a large part of that is because of your support subscribing to the channel signing up on my patreon page super chats your comments in particular are very helpful I love feedback whether it's positive or negative the more interaction we get the more conversation the better so thank you for that the expectations for Penn State entering this year have to be heightened and I say that because the schedule is easy and we'll talk about the schedule and the fact that it is easy here in a few minutes but more importantly is the fact that patience is obviously running thin Penn State fans last year and maybe this is because I'm well quite frankly I'm 21 years old and there's only so much time you have to really watch the sport and analyze it and digest it in a deep cerebral way when you're as young as I am but observing Penn State in 2023 was interesting because their fan base felt like they were about to snap quite frankly especially after the Michigan game booing players on the field um against Ohio State it was very painful to watch Drew Aller throw for like 43 or 44 times and Penn State not even run 30 plays on the ground it the the team to a certain degree seemed discombobulated it was like a repeat of Prior years under James Franklin and it's just another year gone by where Penn State has not won the Big 10 since 2016 and preseason hype is a double-edged sword because on one hand it can be proper recognition to hey this team's going to be good they could surprise people they could shock the world but myself being a Michigan fan an objective Michigan fan but a Michigan fan nonetheless I can tell you how many times preseason hype can also be poison Nick Sabin calls it R poison um and it's not just for the roster or the coaches it's also for the fan base when you are picked by multiple pundits to win the Big 10 and then Ohio State and Michigan game control you to death and you're within Striking Distance I mean if let's just say Keandre Lambert Smith catches that slant pass from Aller he throws it more accurately on the third and one at the 50 against Ohio State and he takes it to the house and at the same time that fumble recovery for a touchdown before a penalty was called on Penn State for defensive holding what if the defensive holding is never called or what if there is no defensive holding and mcord just fumbles the ball and it's taken back for six as well well Penn State wins that game I just gave you two plays that could have given Penn State a win in Columbus for the first time time since 2011 consequentially the first time in the James Franklin era against Michigan what if JJ McCarthy's first sack results in a fumble what if Aller doesn't fumble on the 50 yard line what if Kenneth Grant gets tripped up and he doesn't catch KRON Allen and he takes it to the house Penn State was close this wasn't like 2022 where Michigan and Ohio State at the end of their matchups against Penn State had a double- digit win they were single digit wins Penn State did have a garbage time touchdown against both of them but they were much more competitive they just still came up short and that's what made it really painful that and the fact that Franklin fired his offensive coordinator Mike yuch even though the offense was scoring over five touchdowns a game on average it actually improved in scoring from the prior season from 2022 he fired years he brought in Andy cotal Nikki I think the best offensive coordinator in the country certainly one of the best radical change you have an easier schedule I know Penn State went 7- six and four- five in 2021 but that honestly is not acceptable for Penn State any Penn State fan will tell you that and that is kind of an exception to the rule that's an outlier James Franklin has had 2016 2017 2019 201 22 and 2023 he has had several double digit win Seasons That's the norm at Penn State you lose to Michigan and Ohio State you beat everyone else that was 2022 where they went 11-2 7-2 in Big 10 conference play last year they did the same 10-2 7-2 in Big 10 conference play but they lost their bowl game which is unusual James Franklin is typically very good at winning New Year's six bowl games got totally out coached and smothered by Lane kein and His Old Miss Squad Penn State doesn't play Michigan this year as you'll see and the other opponents they do play that could be a challenge I think Penn State far out classes I think therefore the desired record this year for Penn State especially with Drew Aller Nicholas Singleton KRON Allen Abdul Carter Donnie Dennis Sutton about four or five defensive tackles who've all contributed to the NIT lions and much of their offensive line and tight end Tyler Warr those are all players rotational most of them starters who are draft eligible Preview, Analysis & Predictions For The Nittany Lions 2024 Season they have to capitalize on the seniority that they have the veterans the upside that they have and the schedule that has been provided them by the Big 10 which is fairly easy therefore I think 11-1 or 12-0 in the regular season has to be the expectation 10-2 with this schedule is a failure it's not just a disappointment like in 2023 and I would even say 2023 was a failure given the talent they had but this would be bad to go 10 and two in 2024 with the schedule that James Franklin has in front of him and as for postseason success it's a little different because Penn State unlike Oregon Michigan Ohio State Big 10 teams we've already talked about here on college football with Sam pen State hasn't made the playoff yet so call me I don't know I don't know what to think here and consequentially I said that I think Penn State they just need to make the 12 team playoff have a more successful regular season in terms of record than in years past and make the 12 team playoff at least start there especially if Penn State is able to pick up a big win or somehow reach Indianapolis just doing that and making the 12 team playoff would be leveling up over prior Seasons I've talked about how the schedule is pretty easy so let's take a a peek at it in week one Penn State does hit the ground running and they travel on the road to West Virginia that could be a tough game in week one but Penn State far out classes West Virginia in just about every category that I can think of except for possibly the offensive line but on defense Penn State's better everywhere Penn State has a better tight end better running backs they have a better quarterback Garrick green I think was around or a little higher than Drew Aller in qbr but that's because he's a more efficient Scrambler Aller is surprisingly the better passer than someone AKA West Virginia's Garrett green a Bowling Green is Penn State's week two game their first game in Happy Valley they get a Buy in week three they host Ken state in week four then Illinois in week five UCLA in week six they travel on the road to USC in week seven before getting a Buy in week eight they then travel on the road to Wisconsin in week nine and that's before their week 10 match up against Ohio State so that could be a trap game Wisconsin is well coached by Luke fickle Mike Trestle Phil Longo up Brady Collins their strength and conditioning coach and their roster with Tyler van djk will Pauling with Jack Nelson Riley malman with chz Mal Lucy and then he got Hunter Waller Ricardo hullman tacket Curtis you have players on defense offense and special teams that may very well be able to match up pound per-pound with Penn State and it's at home for Wisconsin before Penn State has a a big game that is going to be their priority in beating Ohio State in week 10 so that's a game to pay attention to Ohio State's obviously coming to town in week 10 it'll probably be a noon game I'm a big fan of the white out when my Michigan Wolverines went to Penn State in 2019 um that was intense that was a great game and the HomeField Advantage is definitely special for Penn State especially with the white out and the night game I actually went to Beaver Stadium in 2021 noon kickoff for Michigan vers Ohio State it wasn't the same as the white out in fact there were parts of the stadium that weren't exactly full but man it was loud and that was on the upper deck so I can only imagine how loud it was down below on the field a just crazy HomeField advantage that Penn State has it's unlike anything else in the country when you factor in the white out but it'll probably be a noon kickoff still a home game not on the road in Columbus where James Franklin's never beaten Ohio State in week 11 Penn State hosts Washington before kin dbor left for Alabama I thought that was going to be a tough sandwich Series where you go at Wisconsin the meat would be Ohio State at home and then you bookend that with Washington being coached by kin dbor and returning some guys not a lot but enough now with Jed fish who's a good coach and he has a good staff but the roster even more gutted than it was already going to be after a bunch of seniors lost the national championship game had a very successful season going 14- one but then any remaining eligible players who were power four level basically outside of two maybe three or four left for other schools whether that was to Oregon or Florida you name it at Purdue in week 12 and at Minnesota week 13 are the next games after and then Penn State closes the year hosting their rival the Maryland terpens Penn State returns 67% of their production and 11 starters and their running back room with Nicholas Singleton Kon Allen with Martin incoming freshman nearly a five-star in high school that's one of the strongest deepest running back rooms in all of college football at tight end they got khil dkin they got Andrew rellia they have Tyler Warren Tyler Warren is very underrated Elite Red Zone threat definitely a future NFL tight end keep on the lookout for him the defensive line for Penn State is very intriguing because whether it is Donnie Dennis Sutton Devon J Thomas whether it is Abdul Carter who's moving from linebacker to defensive end I think Abdul Carter is going to be potentially the best defensive end in the country we'll see if he is there or not it is a transition to move from linebacker to defensive line but Abdul Carter was actually recruited initially to play defensive end at Penn State he didn't want to but then he told the coaches wherever you need me put me and losing chop Robinson and losing Adisa Isaac it was it would it would have been very tough to reload on the defensive line particularly at end and then you have Hakeem baman you have others at defensive tackle who I think are really going to step up big time Penn State defensive tackle is fascinating because they don't necessarily have elite players at defensive tackle they could but I don't know if they do but they have almost un unmatched depth in that room like Devon J Thomas Zayn Durant hakee baman kiah eard Alonzo Ford Jr a Caleb Aris I I think they have some other guys like Amin vanover or Zariah fiser where maybe they were moved around on the defensive line they're listed at defensive end right now but they have four five six quality players at defensive tackle who could start at a variety of power four schools and and that's very useful and they can rush the passer along with stopping the run as showcased last season the defensive line adding on top of that defensive tackle room of course dowy Dennis Sutton Abdul Carter I think is potentially one of the best defensive lines in the country I have Michigan as the best defensive line in the country and I got to be honest with you studying Penn State and the depth that they have the pass rush that they produce on that line and how good they were at stopping the run last season I'm tempted to put them as my number two defensive line in the Big 10 it's very hard with all these teams and all the movement and transfers especially because it's so easy to be wrong to like rank position groups but Penn State is up there they absolutely are and I think running defense is this team's strength at linebacker there's Tony rois Kobe King Dominic Duca and safety with Kevin Winston Jr who who's one of the better safeties in the country and Zaki Wheatley I think Penn State's also pretty strong there quarterback and wide receiver are areas with questions you know Drew Aller last season was a quarterback who was very good at not producing turnovers that's about it seriously when you average 6.8 yards per pass attempt you complete 59.9% of your passes you throw for 2,6 31 yards you have 25 passing touchdowns two interceptions a 136.6 passer rating the TD in ratio is the only good thing and then you add on top of it that Aller was only sacked 15 times and he played and was protected by Olu fashanu who was Penn State's first first team all big 10 offensive lineman under Franklin that makes the stats look worse than what you would see at face value with the talent that surrounded him I know that his receiver core was lackluster but tight end was great with Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren running back was good the offensive line was one of Penn State's best under Franklin and Aller was a five-star talent and expected to do more with his legs and his arm than he ended up doing so there's questions surrounding him I do think he is a weak link on this team that's not to say I think he's a bad quarterback though I do think that he will take massive strides this year but that is a prediction that's not a proven fact so that along with the fact that I think Penn State has so many good players that are probably better than Aller at other positions quarterback's a weak link same with wide receiver Julian Fleming was brought in at wide receiver to help with the room but I need to see him healthy before I predict him to have a breakout season and Keandre Lambert Smith left for the Auburn Tigers the question for this team is all about the offense specifically about explosive plays it'll be hard with the wide receiver room that's provided but the offensive line should be good same with every other position and if Julian Fleming can stay healthy he'll be a good wide receiver can codal Nikki make the offense explosive Penn State was nearly outside of the top 100 in number of plays over 20 yards I'm going to tell you right now as you've seen on the screen for several minutes I do think Penn State's going defeated in the regular season they match up with everyone extremely well extremely well on their schedule outside of Ohio State and I think they still match up well with Ohio State just not as overwhelmingly in their favor as they do with West Virginia Bowling Green Kent State Illinois UCLA USC Wisconsin Washington Purdue Minnesota and Maryland uh Penn State Joel clatt said that they play a similar Style or want to play a similar style of ball to Ohio State and Oregon and there is some truth in that and I do think Michigan is the team in the Big 10 that has the The Joker card where they can lay down their matchup advantage that is very hard to counter I don't know if any team in the Big 10 can truly counteract that card outside of just being the better overall team than Michigan and trying to make their offense one-dimensional what Penn State has though that's a non-negotiable is their Pass Run which was number one in the nation last year and if Abdul Carter works out at defensive end and the evidence and how well he's played and who he is as a person and player says that that will happen Donnie Dennis Sutton had a good year last year and with how much returns at defensive tackle and linebacker the pass rush is going to be as good as last year it could even be better and what Ohio state has issues with is their offensive line whether that is pass protection whether that is run block I think Ohio State's offensive line will be better in blocking for the Run than last season the good news for Penn State is they return a lot at defensive tackle and linebacker so they had the nation's number one run defense last year it may not statistically be as good but it is going to be perhaps in terms of actual performance in terms of film in terms of discipline it could be better better than last year's last year's Penn State run defense remember got gouged by Michigan in the ground game this year's Penn State run defense I don't know we'll see if they've learned their lessons and can truly become the number one running defense not just in terms of rushing a aad per game which is pretty good but when sacks are counted for that and you have the number one pass rush in the country you do question that a little bit so I have Penn State going 12-0 in the regular season season 14-2 overall with a 9-0 record in bigton conference play I think their ceiling will be 12-0 undefeated their floor is 10-2 I have them losing to Ohio State in a rematch in the Big 10 championship game and then reaching the college football playoff and hosting Iowa in the first round beating them they'll play Florida state in the Peach Bowl in the second round and beat them they'll lose to Michigan in the Cotton Bowl in the semi-final it'll be a Big 10 semi-final matchup between Penn State and Michigan and the SEC semi-final matchup a little teaser for my college football playoff predictions will be Alabama in Georgia Michigan will have the better defensive line and there's also a shot that Michigan could have the better offensive line and I think that's likely Michigan will also be better at tight end I'd favor Penn State at linebacker um they have better depth at running back too but I think Michigan will have the better overall running back in Donovan Edwards in terms of quarterback play you'd favor Penn State I would take Michigan's secondary and special teams wide receiver both units have tons of questions but I think that Michigan having the trench advantage that they've had over Penn State and it carries over from last year to this year in my mind would bring Michigan a win over the NIT Lions as for Ohio State it's hard to beat a good team twice and I have Penn State beating them in the regular season I would have a hard time seeing them win in a rematch against a team that I have power rated ahead of Penn State but let's talk about the overall roster in in detail more detail because Penn State for me to pick them to beat Ohio State in the regular season and then to go as far as I think they'll go in the college football playoff I must be pretty high on Penn State's roster and indeed I am I have several all-americans on James Franklin Squad and I'm going to list them out for you and then we'll get to the other players who I just have on my all big 10 team Tyler Warren tight end Abdul Carter Kobe King Riley Thompson Donnie Dennis Sutton Tony RIS Kevin Winston Jr seven all Americans that I think Penn State has entering 2024 and quarterback Drew Aller KRON Allen Nicholas Singleton olavi Vega ion Jaylen Reed Nick Dawkins Nolan Ruchi Devon J Thomas AJ Harris and Nicholas Singleton again but as a return specialist and not as a running back I have on my all big 10 team so this roster in my opinion is going to be loaded at probably every position except for wide receiver there are some questions in terms of How High the offensive line seing is how deep is the cornerback room but safety linebacker defensive tackle and defensive end all of those groups are some of the best in the country individually as a collective unit the defense will be one of the best in the country coached by new defensive coordinator Tom Allen on offense the tight end room will be one of the best in the country same with the running back room cotal Nikki is a lot like Chip Kelly in the way that he is able to scheme the offensive line to maximize it success so what Ohio State fans tell me that Chip Kelly is going to do to some at least some degree and I believe them I think that Penn State is going to do something similar with their offensive line and they return much of their interior uh Nick Dawkins at Center is an experienced player and he was involved in the rotation with Penn State's offensive line last season and he'll be the starting center with Hunter NORAD off to the NFL I think that I'm right on Penn State because the offense was only bad in big games overall it was actually one of the more productive offenses in the country but against Ohio State and Michigan they were not disciplined they had a bad game plan particularly against Ohio State where they threw for nearly twice the amount of times that they ran the ball which yeah take take from that what you will and then against Michigan Manny Diaz constantly being abused with his tight inside blitzes and then Michigan just gaining outside leverage saying oh you give us the outside to work with we'll take it and Michigan had one of their more explosive rushing attacks of the entire season against the nation's number one defense when they had a down year in running the football compared to 2022 and 2021 that was defense though but in general Penn State was one of the nation's best teams last year it's why they were power rated inside of the top five of ESPN's fpi that that's why they were in fact they finished the year ranked ahead of Alabama in fbii as crazy as that sounds it's true because they dominated teams who were not Michigan and Ohio State and also not Old Miss in the peach bow but opt outs played into that as well and then they competed with Ohio State and Michigan enough to not be viewed as a fraud but also not be viewed as a national title Contender because they didn't win those games I think cotal Nikki steps up the offense's performance I think Penn State could have the number one defensive line in the country and I think the offensive line will be great on the interior because of its experience with olaa ion and Nick Dawkins also JB Nelson comes back James Franklin may only have one top 10 game on his slate that's Ohio State and it is in Happy Valley so James Franklin is known for beating everyone else and only losing to the big guys something that's in Penn State's favor is there is only one big man on the schedule and he plays in your house and you have a matchup advantage against him you just do Penn State has built their team to beat Ohio State that's what they've done their goal is to beat Ohio State and you saw that in how they played last season and how they also played in 2022 and you also saw that on display when they played Michigan and it was clear that they built team to compete with Ohio State not to compete with Michigan necessarily in fact I would almost argue they kind of mimicked Michigan in a way they're recruiting better on the o line developing better there trying to get back to running the football I think Andy cotal Nikki using the amount of motion that he does is another evolution in that seeing what Chiron Moore did at Michigan it's a good strategy the reason I'm wrong though is Penn State's wide receiver unit is weak and both of their offensive tackles last year fashanu being a first-rounder in the NFL and Kaden Wallace being a good player as well they're gone so Penn State's passing offense could theoretically be as bad as last year's even with an easier schedule even with more experience and even with an infinitely better offensive coordinator because their wide receiver unit is weak they did lose Keandre Lambert Smith who was their best wide receiver last year but more importantly their offensive tackle are gone and if they don't reload at that position then Ohio State's defensive line now was an obvious matchup advantage over their offensive line like how I discussed Penn State's defensive line as having an advantage over Ohio State so line then that trench Advantage is well neutered and with Ohio State having the better roster and the better head coach they'll win that game even though it's played in Happy Valley I think the defensive line much like with Michigan is Penn State X Factor last season the NIT Lions only allowed 13.8 offensive points per game they only allowed 0.26 or 216 opponent points per play they were fourth in both of those categories they were first in opponent rushing yards per game opponent yards per carry and Sack percentage they only allowed 75 rushing yards per game 2.2 yards per carry and they had a sack rate of 12.47 which means about 12.5% of opponent passing snaps resulted in a sack for Penn State it's insane if if you want to see that in action watch the Michigan State Games watch the Maryland game watch even the Michigan game where Penn State's pass rush forced shiron Moore in Michigan to say we're only going to run the ball and nothing else because they couldn't block Adisa Isaac chop Robinson and Donnie Dennis Sutton I think Aller is the player who will make or break this team you have to pass for more than 3,000 yards complete somewhere in the mid 60s I would say especially with the lack of Boom in the wide receiver room the touchdown to int ratio is great but that also I think signified that last season Penn State didn't take enough risks in the passing game take more risks be better schemers Drew Aller I think also could use another 100 or 200 yards in rushing offense he only had 210 rushing yards for four rushing touchdowns and only averaged 2.8 yards per carry and he only was sacked 15 times he was not he was not Penn State's Josh Allen last year like he was hyped up to be in the pre-season in body type yeah in passing ceiling yes in scrambling absolutely not so if he can become a better Scrambler and a better passer that will take a lot of pressure off the wide receivers off the running backs it'll make the offense that much more efficient and I would say defensively a player who will make or break the season for the nney Lions and this is really tough because I think defensively Penn State is phenomenal I would say AJ Harris AJ Harris is an incoming transfer from Georgia who will be playing at corner played sparingly last season five-star Talent um Terry Smith is phenomenal devel ing players in the secondary and I think AJ Harris will be good but you just don't know with him being an incoming transfer if he can be elite which is better than I think he'll be this season I think he'll be great but Elite would be especially helpful and finally I would say is underrated one it's kicker sander sah deck who was seven of seven for extra points last year but 0 of two on field goals and missed from inside of the 40 he's Penn State's projected starting kicker right now Chase Meyers also competing with him for that job and he wasn't extremely accurate last year either Falin was a really good kicker in a very good grab and special teams for Penn State was very good last season how did they fill in for dayquon Hardy who is a great punt returner and Alex Falcons who's a great kicker leaving their program I think Penn State's going to have a phenomenal year this year and as I said in 2023 in the preseason 2024 is Penn State's year they better capitalize on it thank you so much for watching this video remember to like subscribe hit the notification Patreon Shoutout Bell and comment your thoughts down below thanks to crash 2488 and brascar rasco for being Heisman patreon members thanks to Chris Lane Conor l o and ismar for being all American members and thanks to John Lynn roming gome Matthew sale Austin Christmas and chai shakro for being all conference members and if you want to wear what I was wearing in this video check out my merchandise store and you can purchase merchandise via the link in the description or down below in the pin comment you can do the same for my patreon page sign up as any member you want depending on your budget and also the perks that you want to receive thank you all so much for watching this video and I will see you soon bye-bye