UNLV Rebels vs Houston Cougars Prediction | Week 1 College Football | 8/31/24

next up for us game two on Saturday 7 P.M Eastern we have the UNLV Rebels at the Houston Cougars in Houston Texas TDECU Stadium let's take a look at the line history for this one we'll start with the total for Rebels cougars two teams seemingly moving in very different directions we have the total at 54 and a half that's where this opened at Pinnacle this opened at Pinnacle on the 20th of August so we're on the 23rd right now there's been no movement 54 and a half we go over to beted online who of course got this total out earlier it's also at 54 there but it opened up at 56 and a half and it moved up to 57 it was at 57 on the 10th of August then on the 16th of August a three-point move to the under and it kept going this got down to 53 and a half that's a three-point move that's a sharp sharp Giant Extreme three-point move to the under back on the 16th let's get into the line history of the point spread we have move back here we have the Houston Cougars as one and a half Point favorites they opened up right there one and a half Point favorites and there's been no movement at Pinnacle over at Bed online there has been movement this opened up with the Cougars as three-point favorites this is back on May 24th then on June 1st it moves to three and a half June 20th it moves to three July 25th to two and a half August 17th to two August 18th to one and a half so we've seen a real move uh towards UNLV let's get into the cash flow then for UNLV Houston and see what the Mark or the books and the public is moving on 92% of the tickets 92% of the cash on Houston wow wow only 8% of now there's only 1,898 tickets in but certainly would make you want to bet UNLV right now and if you watched last year's football you'd want to bet UNLV right now now of course we have to hear who's at quarterback for youl and we'll talk about that 73% ticket 74% of cash on the under so uh Barry odm's first season has coach was an enor an enormous success a huge success and Brendan Marian's offense 34.4 points per game but wi time who is going to be at quarterback you have Haj Malik Williams transferring from FCS Campbell dual threat you have Cameron Freel who was qb3 last season understands the system and you have grad transfer Matthew sluka Pat League Player of the Year at FCS Holy Cross so that's the qu there's question marks around quarterback there are not question marks in the high-profile positions you got Jayden Thomas uh 503 yards rushing 12 touchdowns as a freshman last year he's ready to to to Blossom you have a Ricky White the third uh 1483 yards receiving so you have Playmakers around who will be at quarterback coin in the house say Houston 10 returning starters UNLV 11 Billy friedrick says Friday October 4th I'll be betting UNLV at home for Syracuse as soon as the line drops let's talk about Houston Willie Fritz their new coach has a lot of cleaning up to do around this Cougar's team that's been plummeting the last couple years so uh Donovan Smith 3,000 yards 22 touchdowns in his first season with Houston is expected to be ready to good to go from the laum surgery in the off season but he did lose his best two receivers sheal wood comes over new defensive coordinator to clean up the mess uh we saw what he could do at Troy a couple years ago when they the top 20 defense and this defense was horrific last year take it away for us Wine Time Rebels cougars in Houston yeah Jimmy um looking at this game initially um without reading the marker or anything I ca this game I looked at both these teams deeply you know um it's funny actually one of the times it came on here live with you last year we talked about Houston and I talked about Donovan Smith uh this guy returns you know this guy's 65 235 um he got NFL stature um really good quarterback size out there durable um he talked a lot about uh putting on a little bit more weight this offseason to keep him a little more durable because he's gonna be taking a lot he's gonna be taking hits he's gonna be running with the football um surprised he stayed honestly uh but he's very talented this kid's got every tool in the shed if you look back at the Texas game last year mentioned with Sam Brown um these two really kept them close with that Texas game um you know they had the ball with a minute left and I thought they got the first down and end up getting overturned not getting a first down they didn't get it but you look at that Tap Man Donovan Smith showed some flashes of some NFL type quarterback play um he wasn't consistent enough throughout the season I only saw it a couple games but he's got the tools to be successful I think uh bringing in Willie Fritz you know Willie Fritz is a run first type of coach it's kind of how he's always been um I think Donovan Smith is going to excel in this uh he's got to limit the interceptions he thrw a good amount of interceptions last year I think he's got to limit those um make a lot more smarter decisions but kid's Ultra Talent he's the most probably the most talented kid um on the field in this one honestly I'm not gonna lie uh and you know Willie Fritz coming over from tlane uh started a culture over there um really turned that program around the last couple years uh brought him from nothing to you know winning 10 games and being nationally ranked so coming over to hou Houston you know it's a different conference but I expect him to bring his same similar values to Houston um they need something they need a r revive him they need people in the stands you know I was looking at their home this first game tickets are going for $3 right now they need people in the stands there um you look at the team though they he brought in a lot of good transfers from not a lot of power four schools necessarily he did bring in a Georgia wide receiver who was a return specialist for Georgia last year I believe he actually was uh second team in the SEC for return for kick specialist he's gonna be out there at receiver he's gonna be returning kicks pretty Dynamic kid they also grabbed a kid from Tulsa had 600 yards last year kind of a like a Sam Brown who left kind of like that not as talented and not as big but his route running is polished he can go out there and run any route you ask him to I expect him in uh they've had some good connections here in the fall Camp from what I've seen uh you look over the UNLV side you asked who the starting quarterback was did a lot of research these last couple days uh they still haven't announced it it's looking like Matthew sluka transfer from Holy Cross is going to most likely be the guy watching his tape when he's got time to throw he's got a pretty good arm it is at the FCS level but I saw him making some pretty good Big Time throws and also he can take off and run both of these quarterbacks are dual threats the other guy is the transfer from Campbell his name is Malik Williams I think uh but they're both Dynamic with their legs Malik Williams is a little more Dynamic on the ground but Matthew sluka can Chuck it it's a step up in competition though coming to the Big 12 so it's going to be interesting to see it's going to be a good first game I I think Houston I I took Houston in this one I gave it out um one unit play you know I like Houston in this spot I didn't like it when I saw 92% of the money was on them and 92% of the bets that really threw me off considering that UNLV had a really successful year last year and Houston you know 4 and eight I know they're bringing in Willie Fritz I just thought maybe people were gonna think he needs some time which he is gonna need time this Houston team isn't going to go to a bowl game by any means I have them going I think five- seven or four and eight um but I just I look at the quarterback play and I think it's going to be a big step up uh for Donovan Smith I think he's much more talented than the guy over on Holy Cross he hasn't played any FBS football yet we have seen some FCS guys come to this level and play well uh you could prove me wrong we'll see I'm taking Houston in this one you know looking at the market though it did have me a little skeptical on it with all the money on it but you know I like this Houston team they've got a guy uh Willie Fritz brought over this Edge rusher threee starter since he was a freshman his name is Keith Cooper uh five sacks last year this guy's 65 285 physical specimen out there a lot of strength I know he's coming from lower conference not the power forward conference but he's got the strength to compete in the Big 12 I believe especi mean especially going against UNLV uh not even a power for they're Mountain West you know I think I expect him to have a really good game this one watch out for Keith Cooper really good Edge rusher um and he brought in a lot of experien guys not necessarily from the power for level like I said but he's got guys in there that have played a lot of snaps together so I like Houston money line in this one minus 125 I took it uh we'll see how the market goes if it Go starts going more towards UNLV with all the money on Houston it's gonna scare me but as of right now I'm on Houston Houston Cougar's money line at minus 120 uh with some reinforcements on defense you think that Shield wood can I mean that's the biggest question mark around the Cougars and the UN he has Playmakers despite the questions a quarterback you think that the Houston defense can step up enough at least against a UNLV caliber football team I do think so they've got like I said they did get some key transfers who have been playing a good amount of football and they're not necessarily super young either on the defensive side uh so I do think they I I expect I thought at seven and a half sorry I admit you cut out there for a second what was the very last thing you said did you say you got this at 57 and a half uh open up yeah oh yeah sorry back in May over atline yeah gotcha I expect kind of a track meet in this one uh with the quarterback play and Houston's defense did struggle I expect them to do better it's gonna be the first game it's going to be interesting to see it's gonna see can their fans show out for this one and uh kind of give them something to play for I would like to see it uh this houon program's really hunting for something they need some kind of success quick uh Willie Fritz it might take them some time but I think they can get the dub in this one Houston Cougars money line for Wine Time Sports Wine Time thank you so much for making time for us