Chandler Rome: Alex Bregman NOT Likely To Re-Sign With Houston Astros

the longest free agent deal and most lucrative free agent deal Jim Crane's ever given in his ownership tenure is five years $95 million to uh to Josh haer last winter they don't play in that ballpark they don't play in that realm of seven eight years 200 million dollars which I think is what it's going to take to get bregman and I wrote this this morning when a fan asked me in a mailbag piece that I put up um you know what are the chances and I said go back three years ago um this team had Carlos k a homegrown 1-1 overall pick who was begging to stay in welcome into another edition of on the record my name is Jesse fredman and we are here previewing this weekend series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Houston Astros of course the first time that these two teams have met this season and here with us to preview this series is the one and only Chandler Rome uh who joins us from the athletic does an outstanding job covering the Astros Chandler thanks for hopping on we really appreciate it yeah thanks guys appreciate you having me so I guess we'll start with the pitching matchups Chandler in this series I think all of the Astros starters kind of have their own unique narrative that's kind of worth digging into we have Brandon fought against framber Valdez going tonight in the opener then we have Eduardo Rodriguez against us Kikuchi and then Ryan Nelson goes against Justin Verlander uh in the finale of the series I guess I'll start with framber Valdez he didn't actually start the season all that well from what I can tell and he has turned things around dramatically I believe he threw seven no hit Innings uh in his last outing and has an erra now in the low threes what has happened this year for framber Valdez that caused him to struggle early and and maybe you know turn things around so much here recently it's kind of the story of Farber valdez's career really um his stuff is Elite I mean he's got some of the best stuff in baseball I mean Mike Trout once called him the best pitcher he's ever faced and um that that comment has res ated a lot and with him it's just about consistency um he works a lot on his mental state he works a lot on just what's kind of going on in his head because I think that's the one thing stopping him it's kind of between the ears it is not stuff it's not execution it is can he kind of keep it together keep himself composed whether that's when a bad call goes against him um you mentioned he carried a no hitter and he threw seven no hit Innings uh last week he's taken three no hitters this year into at least the seventh inning wow so to watch you know how he gets affected when he gives a no hitter up or when he gives up a hit in general um there have been times in the past where he's been kind of unable to control his emotions I think he's done a much better job this year just kind of doing his breathing exercises um centering himself and not allowing you know things to overtake him emotionally um and I think he and yer Diaz the catcher have really formed a rapport there was a a pretty awful moment ear earlier this year where um both Yer Diaz and fber Valdez acknowledged that fber went away from their game plan uh against the angels in May uh he gave up eight runs in an inning while he went away from said game plan and then Joe did not catch Yer Diaz with fber Valdez for about a month um he reunited them about uh six weeks ago and they've been lights out ever since as a as a Duo so they've gotten that fixed too again with framber you never question the stuff you never question the execution all you question is kind of can he keep it together within himself and for the last three months he's done an amazing job of that I guess big picture before we talk about some of the other pitchers in the series the Astros as a team uh in somewhat similar fashion did not start off well whatsoever the Astros it looked like this was maybe the year where the Astros finally weren't going to wind up in the ALCS they seem to do automatically every single season and yet here we are uh in sep and the Astros are they haven't locked away the a there's still a little bit of intrigue there I think the Mariners are four and a half games out but they're obviously in in very good position to make the playoffs what do you attribute those early season struggles to and and kind of big picture how of the Astros turn things around well the beginning of the Season just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong um the back the back three in their Bullpen Brian Abu Ryan Presley and Josh haer three guys that I think any man manager in the sport would give the ball to late in the game all three of them just had awful aprils and Mays they they were unable to finish games out um they continued to run Jose out there at first base for for no real reason other than they were paying him a ton of money yeah um Hunter Brown was about a start away from being optioned to the minor leagues um just again everything that could go wrong did go wrong and and I think just they needed some things to kind of settle out they had to make some pretty bold decisions they they released Jose AB BR with about $36 million left on his contract they called up some some guys from the minor leagues that you've probably never heard of but um just came in they they didn't set the world on fire but just gave some stability um you know Brian AB Ryan Presley Josh hater obviously turned back into themselves and have been very very good um Hunter Brown has become the best starter in baseball that no one's talking about from who we just talked about really turned it on and and I just think kind of their true Talent showed that showed itself out and I do think you know you can't talk about their Resurgence without talking about the other four teams in the American League West how bad they are I mean the Mariners are I believe since they were 44 and 31 only the White Soxs have a worse record than them in baseball so I mean they're free fall you can't talk about the Astros Ascension without talking about how awful this division is and I think that helped them quite frankly that they play in the worst division in b baseball and um you know the Astros for lack of a better word kind of their muscle memory kicked in they was like all right like we're the Astros like we we've got better players we've got a better team than anyone in this division let's just kind of turn it on and that's what they did and I guess they also picked up a player at the trade deadline who has been one of the best players ever since in US say Kikuchi I know the Diamondbacks face Kikuchi while he was with the Blue Jays a couple months ago I think he started that outing off well they wind up scoring seven runs in an inning off him before he's fin removed from the game this version of us Kikuchi seems a little bit different he has a 257 ER in six starts since being traded over to the Astros what's been the difference for for the Astros new lefty well I I think it's a couple of things everyone wants to talk about you know what do the asers do to overhaul him like pitch sequencing pitch selection things like that I think first of all you have to look at when you go from a team that had such bad vibes like the Blue Jays just they were a dump they were a dumpster fire I mean they had a bad in they knew they were going nowhere they knew that they were underachieving I mean that team was bad vibes personified when you go from that to a championship contending Clubhouse with an elite Bullpen with a good defense behind you um I I think that can make anyone better and I think that has been the first thing that that he kind of got away from those surroundings and is now in uh just a better overall environment and the Astros traded from they didn't want to overhaul him they his stuff even when he was with the blue jays and had a 6 like his stuff is Elite like he's got some of the best stuff in baseball can get it up to 99 has three or four secondary pitches that he likes but the Astros it was pretty simple throw your change up more throw your curveball less throw your slider more to the back foot and back door locations he's really turned his slider into two separate pitches just from the where he locates it now you know he's throwing more back door he throwing more to the back foot and when he's able to locate that in different areas I I think it it makes his change up better for one and two it kind of puts you know hitters in a different kind of mindset they have emphasized elevating his foram fastball more which should be no surprise that's how the Astros have done things forever and you know they're trying to eliminate the Home Run ball with him but with a left-handed pitcher in minute made Park facing a bunch of right-handers um the Crawford boxes are there so even if they try to eliminate the Home Run ball there's just going to be some that get out because of that and he's had I believe two or three Crawford box specials home run since he got to Houston but other than that I mean he's been everything that they could have hoped for and more um they've won every they've won all of his six starts he's been out there they've been a little hesitant to let him go three times through the order I think they're only comfortable him going two times through but in his last start you saw him pitching into the seventh inning for the first time um he really seems to like it here he seems to like his teammates he seems to really have had his eyes opened by what the Astros pitching coaches and analysts have told him and uh you can't argue with the success I think of a playoff series started today he would he would be their third starter if they could line it up the way they want to well you mentioned throwing High fast balls which instantly makes me think of Brent STM and his transition from the Astros organization to the diamond Vex organization a few years ago I know we had you on the show back then to just sort of give us a feel of of what Str is like a person and as a coach I'm curious on the Astros side what what is the post Bren Strom era on the pitching side look like have there been changes it sounds like at least from what stamy has said that there was already a really strong infrastructure in place when he left what is what has that kind of been like over these last few years yeah I think strom's right on um he's got two of his disciples if you will running the after department and Josh Miller and Bill Murphy and they really haven't missed to beat um you know they should get a lot of credit this year for how this thing has turned out because I mean early on even in spring training you were kind of thinking this team was going to be a run production team this is going to be a team that was G to slug um you look at the lineup and you're like all right just as long as the pitching doesn't fall apart and then is completely turned on its head this lineup has underperformed all year and this pitching staff is one of the best in baseball um and they they're doing it with six starters current ly on the injured list three of whom are out for the year in Luis Garcia uh Lance McCullers Jr Christian Javier and Jose Ri so four out for the year excuse me um they've turned Hunter Brown into an almost an ace they've gotten rookie Spencer arag Getti um you know he's not he just gave up nine runs in two-thirds of an inning against the Reds but before that he was August pitcher of the month in the American League um carried a no hitter into the eighth inning against the Phillies you've seen in their Bullpen you know Taylor Scott who was a minor league signing has been a revolution for them you know Caleb ort they claimed off of waivers has been throwing 99 and getting big outs so they deserve a ton of credit for this and it is all kind of the same message and look not every pitcher they're not going to tell every pitcher elevate your forcing fast ball they're not g to tell every pitcher you know isue this pitch don't throw this pitch it's different but I think it's more the messaging and the way they get it across to these guys more than like some uniform way of pitching that they have because I think we've seen in other organizations that try this uniform way of pitching it it doesn't work you have to tailor what these guys do well and I think more importantly with the Astros maybe than other teams the Astros and this is going to sound really rudimentary and Elementary but it's something us say Kikuchi has talked about a lot the Astros look more at okay what do these hitters not hit and instead of throwing your best pitch instead of throwing like what you're most confident why don't you throw what we know this guy can't hit and I think that has been a huge that's been a huge step in the right direction as well I guess on there aren't many Astros pitchers that seem to be struggling right now but Justin Verlander is is maybe one of them uh maybe hasn't been a total disaster by any means but he has an RA around four and a half struggled a little bit in his most recent outings uh you know he's well into his 40s at this point Verlander sitting at 260 wins um I know he has an option for next year that it sounds like is not going to vest so he would become a free agent what do you see as as being Verlander's future whether with Houston or or maybe elsewhere and what should Diamondbacks fans maybe expect to to see from this version of him on Sunday yeah you know I think it's been a little bit outsized the the maybe just from Astros fans like the outcry about Verlander's last three starts he missed two months with a neck injury sure and just came back I mean he's he's basically calling this his spring training and he called his last start in Cincinnati his third spring training start I think if anyone has earned the benefit of the doubt and has earned the benefit of patience and giving him a Runway to to let him figure some stuff out it's Verlander and that's what they're going to do um he he you know everyone's talking about pulling from the playoff rotation like no no no like he's they they they trust that he will figure it out he said after his starting since that his mechanics were just completely out of whack and um Verlander's a guy that you know he knows himself maybe better than anybody I've ever covered and just knows his what he needs to do to get outs what he needs to do to get this team deep into games is he 2021 unanimous sa young Justin ver or 2022 unanimous sa young Justin Verlander no I mean he's this is not vintage Verlander anymore his velocity not that he needs velocity much anymore but it's about 91 to 93 now and of 94 to 96 he can reach back and get 95 when he needs it but um relies a lot more on soft contact relies a lot more on early count outs and um relies a lot more on command and his command really hasn't been there since he got back from the iil so um it's not an e and let's also think about to the lineups he's faced since he comes back from the Isel his first start was against the Red Sox who complete who Mash then he goes to Philly and has to pitch against the Phillies at Citizens Bank par another team that mashes the Reds who have had the Astros number for years now and then he's about to get the Dbacks who also Mash so um it has not been a soft landing spot for Verlander so um you know I think the Astros would like to see signs of progress I don't think they're going to panic and do anything rash if he gets lit up by the Dbacks but um I think also the calendar shrinking and they do have to kind of figure out who are they going to count on in in the playoffs in October presuming they get there and um it's it's strange to say but you know right now as we've just talked about I I put fber Valdez Hunter Brown and you say Kikuchi ahead of Justin berlander right now in terms of who this team would trust in a playoff series and and that is wild to say and as far as his future goes you know you mentioned it he needs to throw 140 innings for his option to vest that is not going to happen um I would be surprised if he's back in Houston but he has such a good relationship with owner Jim Crane that I also would never rule anything out um Jim Crane has already resigned him once as a free agent he's given him two extensions um they really like each other and sometimes this can go over the baseball Ops point of view this can be just Crane and Verlander hashing things out so um wouldn't I I'd be a little surprised if he's back but again when when these guys when it comes to Verlander especially with his relationship with crane nothing would really shock me uh I do think he wants to keep pitching he said on ESPN a couple of weeks ago that he's got that bright shiny number kind of thinking about that's 300 that's 300 wins again I I it's tough for me to doubt Justin Verlander but just given where he's at it's gonna be a really tough task for him he has said on multiple occasions he wants to pitch until he's 45 he's 41 now um it's gonna it's gonna be a slog it could be a grind but again if if if I put my faith and trust in anyone it'd probably be Justin Verlander just given how he's resurrected his career uh late into his 30s and into his 40s last thing for you on on the hitting side of things I know you mentioned that the Astros lineup has has really underperformed uh for a good portion of the season one guy who was really struggling early in the year is Alex bregman and it seems like he is very much found it here over the last few months I believe he has an 879 Ops going back to May 28th so he's been one of the best hitters in baseball for for several months at this point it's been a kind of a weird walk year for him obviously he's hitting free agency uh this winter do you expect to see him back with the Astros next year or where do you where do you think this could go I think the Dbacks need a third baseman it's fair I think I wouldn't I wouldn't rule that out um I don't think he's back in Houston just because uh you look at what the extension Matt Chapman got two days ago that should maybe the starting point for negotiations with with bregman who is a year younger than Matt Chapman yeah and who if you look at his overall stats is a better player Matt Chapman's the better Defender obviously with the gold gloves and everything but overall bregman is the better player and bregman has the postseason pedigree and I think the one thing with bregman that a lot of people don't take into account is his presence in the clubhouse this is a this is a Bonafide leader um he has really taken on a leadership role this year especially with his pitching staff really helping them game plan helping them kind of work their way through a lot of different things and I think any team that is on the cusp of maybe um wanting to be a perennial Contender that needs that Cornerstone to look at I think you could do a lot worse in Alex bregman you look at the the Dbacks if if obviously I don't know what Au henio Suarez's option is but if that doesn't work out I would think the Dbacks the Mariners could use a third baseman I think both New York teams could use a third baseman Maybe as much as they want to swallow their pride a little bit signing Alex bregman off of you know the signed ceiling Scandal um the bluejs could use a third baseman you look at the Detroit Tigers who are managed by AJ hinch they're kind of that team I was just talking about that could be on the cusp of being something little pretty good they could use a third baseman and then you look at the Red Sox um they have a third baseman in Raphael Des but who says bregman can't play second maybe or move Des to first put bregman at third there there's a lot of options out there and you look at this Matt Chapman contract 6 years $151 million the longest free agent deal and most lucrative free agent deal Jim Crane's ever given in his ownership tenure is five years $95 million to uh to Josh hater last winter they don't play in that ballpark they don't play in that realm of seven eight years $200 million which I think is what it's going to take to get bregman and I wrote this this morning when a fan asked me in a mailbag piece that I put up um you know what are the chances and I said go back three years ago um this team had Carlos kareah a homegrown one-1 overall pick who was begging to stay in Houston who said he wanted to be an astro for Life said it on their flagship radio station said it in every way they can say it and they didn't make that happen if they're not going to resign him if they're not going to bring him back I wonder if they're ever going to do it so I don't think bregman's going to get the type of 10-year deal that two teams did end up giving kareah even though they didn't get finalized um I don't think he's going to get the 10-year deal I think he'll get a seven or an eight-year deal and I I don't think it'll be with the Astros I think it'll be elsewhere and I think bregman um I think he'd love to come back to Houston but I also don't think he's going to take a HomeTown discount and I think he is intrigued to see what the open market holds well we'll see what happens with that situation and this Diamondbacks Astros series over the weekend of course both these teams trying to in good position but trying to secure playoff spots down the stretch here in September uh Chandler thanks again for hopping on we really appreciate your time all right thanks [Music] guys like May