Montreal byelection expected to be big test for Liberals

this byelection is really going to be an important moment of choice for Canadians and indeed for montrealers there is increased attention on the byelections as it could say a lot about the mood of Voters and the message they have for party leaders this after the NDP ripped up its supplying confidence agreement with the Liberals joining me now is political analyst Lori Turnell Lori thanks as always for joining us thank you so much for having me how crucial is it that the Liberals come out with at least I'd say one win I'm not sure not so sure about Winnipeg but Montreal oh yeah this is big this is as big as the Toronto St Paul's test earlier in the summer I think if they don't win Montreal um then you're going to see even more panic and even more concern and push on the Prime Minister for a different strategy now if the other thing is if they don't win um that helps the people who want to have this Frank conversation with the Prime Minister who seems like he's absolutely not going anywhere he said that um if they don't win the writing caucus members and people outside the party uh can I think probably have a bit more if I can say leverage in that conversation with the Prime Minister but I'm not sure it's going to change anything I think you know when he says I'm going to stick around he means it and how would so if if this goes the other way and goes towards the NDP or the block I believe it's kind of a three-way race right now how would either of those victories be interpreted I think it would be interpreted as a crumbling of the liberal base because I mean in some ways there's never a totally safe writing you have to you know every party has to compete you got to put up the candidate you got to get the ground game going the leadership matters you've got to get momentum around it byelections are always tricky because you usually have a lower voter turnout and it's harder to get people to draw to get their attention on it because there's there are other things going on whereas in a general election it kind it has this sense of taking over but I mean for this byelection I think because this has been seen as such a safe seat for the Liberals over time it it's a kind of test again like the Toronto St Paul's where if they lose this one it shows that even the people who always show up for the Liberals are not doing it right whether they're staying home or they're showing up for another party that you know if they don't win this it means the base is crumbling and so again that would be a message to the people in the party that there needs to be a major shift if they're going to you know if there's a chance at all of them avoiding collapse in the next election and the NDP if they were to win would they would they say this is because we've torn up the the agreement they may say that but I don't think that would be the reason why I think that you know I I agree with you uh it there there is a sense of this three-way tie in that writing right now and so it's very hard to predict what will happen and we're used to vote splitting right because all that matters is the person who comes first and so you could see quite a strong vote hall for a couple of the parties and but there's one winner and that's all right at the end of the night I mean I think the NDP yes are going to are going to if they win that writing and and if they win win a peg too they're going to put this on you know in the sense of in this narrative we've torn up this agreement with the Liberals this is part of our momentum this is like and that would be really helpful to them at this point as they're trying to redefine themselves wins in those byelections would be key for them but I think um you know it could it could be an indicator of all sorts of things if the NDP win in Montreal it's not just about the NDP that would be a sign of a liberal collapse also and also and winipeg before we go let's talk about that one it's NDP it's been NDP I think 10 11 uh but it's Blakey really isn't it and what what would it say with a conservative win there that's it is that this was a to me this was a significant loss for the NDP when Mr Blakey decided to leave and he went to work for we canoe uh so I think if if that doesn't go the ndp's way kind of a s like a similar thing this is seen as a safe seat for the NDP something they held for a long time if that if they don't manage to turn that into a win that's going to take the wind out of the sales of this you know kind of renewed approach for the NDP is and you know as much as J meet Singh has said this it's not a reflection on me it's not a test of leadership it's always a test of leadership so I think you know those are going to be uncomfortable questions for him in the event that it that it doesn't go their way but it's also a test of of a conservative machine in that writing as well it's always about the ground game and the conservatives for example in Toronto St Paul's they didn't win that by having Pier pev go and and do rallies and and Jin up a bunch of support they ran they wanted by an excellent ground game running the right candidate keeping a kind of steady but not really loud campaign the whole time and so we'll see we'll see what happens okay Lori thank you as always for your Insight thank you too take care Lori turull is a political analyst