Democrats Begin to Panic as Kamala's Post-Convention Bump Never Happens? With Michael Knowles

Mark Halprin though with a very interesting dose of reality for team Harris and people who might be getting kind of excited about what's happening with her now I will tell you this relates to whether comma Harris has experienced a postc convention bump and the answer is she hasn't the answer is she has not Yahoo polling uh today showing that um she's 47 Trump's 46 719 July 19th to July 22nd before the convention it was 4646 both that's a tie that's the same that's no movement she's gotten no bounce now there's more uh polls out today National poll by yugov and The Economist shows the same no no bounce uh for her she's 47 he's 45 which is where they were before um and that's and here's Mark halin sounding the alarm on to Rats on what's Happening Here there's some public polling already there's more coming and there's some private polling that suggests that nationally in the Battleground States she's not ahead she might be ahead on paper but well within the margin of error and there's some Battleground States now where I think Donald Trump's on this trajectory is going to be ahead and it may be regardless of what happens in the interview and regardless what happens in the debate it may be that by the middle of September when things have calmed down when the Trump campaign have had time to prey on some of the weaknesses that I suggested that he's ahead in all the sunbell states and ahead in Pennsylvania and competitive in Michigan and Wisconsin which would be roughly where Joe Biden was before the debate with a single path to 270 electoral votes the three great lake States in Nebraska too and that would be a scary position for the Democratic party to be in from mid-september through election day because then they'd have a candidate who'd never won a presidential election never won a primary or caucus had run for president once and failed had been for most of her time as vice president not a sh surefooted person on the national stage again I'm not predicting this will happen but I think if the data I think is expected to come out comes out the people either helped her secure the nomination without a shot being fired and the people who've long been worried about her against Donald Trump will either been I Told You So mode or oh no mode or both what do you make of that it reminds me of Gavin new's reaction just speaking with John favro the former head of speechwriting for Obama where where even Nome this is a sitting Democrat Governor started laughing about the supposedly open and Democratic process to nominate Kam La Harris and favro is laughing too and everybody's laughing because we know that this was a palace coup it had nothing to do with the the Democratic base the will of any voters she just slipped right in there and as Mark hel points out there she she's never won a single primary even the time that she did run for president so no matter how confident that the Democrats are feeling right now no matter how much more energized they feel after they kicked out poor old Joe we're dealing with a nominee who is completely untested in a national election who has not appeared surefooted to use his phrase while she's been vice president who who doesn't really have any accomplishments under her belt in government or or even electorally as she's as she's running for office so if I were Democrats I'd be worried even probably the best looking Poll for Kamala right now came out last Friday Fairley Dickinson poll showed nationally Kamala at 50 Trump at 43 7% of Voters looking at someone else now of course that poll was conducted before Friday's endorsement from RFK of trump and so there you go that that could be the seven points at right there but but of course the election won't be decided nationally it'll be decided within the swing States and and so the endorsement of someone like RFK really would worry me if I were a Democrat because you're the Democrats are hoping to get a bump from the DNC well RFK just blunts whatever bump might have happened because he gives his endorsement the day after the DNC and then the swing states are all separated by what two or three points now and RFK was commanding Five Points in some of those States so so e even just that shift alone could represent a shift in momentum for the race and as helprin points out if the momentum continues as it is right now by the end of September Democrats are going to be in a terrible spot I mean if this is true and she's starting to to drop in the polls and you know has maxed out she's peaked just in in the context of the Democrats relief that Biden was out and they had anyone new but now they're getting to see her again and the numbers start to fall there's nothing Tim Walls is going to be able to do to save her the the big white blankie will not save the day it'll be it'll be like when my mom got rid of my big white blankie and just kept telling me it was in the wash till I realized I was on my own she may have that White Blank went to the wash Joe Biden went to a farm upstate I think that's like they do to Old yell and so you know there there are a lot of mixed metaphors here but all of it comes down to the fact that kamla is extraordinarily vulnerable and and this is why of course she only wants to have one debate with Trump she wants to push that debate as close as she possibly can to early voting beginning she wants it to be inconsequential in the race Democrats were clever in this way to to set up two debates one way earlier than it should have been one way later than it should have been and and so after the first one proved that Biden was incapable they could just boot him off the ballot and reset then they're hoping that se the the September debate even even if it goes poorly for Kamala will simply be inconsequential but but don't forget the only reason Biden agreed to those debates in the first place is because he was losing because he was he was on a bad path and so he had to do something to try to turn it around kamla is just going to try to sit on her hands and and wait it out to get into the White House well if the these data keep coming up as Mark alprin is suggesting that that is going to mean that KLA is on a bad path it's a it's a a slight path downward but it's it's steady that Trump is on a steady path up and then she's going to have to try something new but but whatever she tries is is only going to expose her to even great a risk and the risks she can't save herself with her great oratory here is the moment you just referenced with Gavin Nome on uh the Pod save America podcast how you feeling about the switch I mean the switch now we went through a very open process a very inclusive process uh it was bottom up I don't know if you know that yes that's what I've been told to say yes it was it was it was a blitz primary I believe that's what they called it it's a very very fast Blitz I think it a blink primary so that 30 minute convention you know between a tweet and another tweet it's amazing how it happened yeah it's been amazing but it is what is amazing is how unified everybody is mean his next level so that's what I've been told to say it's amazing and remember that Chuck Schumer s sound bite with him saying it's it's bottom up it's been Grassroots and here he is saying it's bottom up that's what I've been told to say we're aware that this is all a lie we know when we're being lied to we know this was not bottom up I love how Gavin Nome after he's been joking around a little too much with these Insider guys this is one of the good aspects of the Pod save America universe is that these are insiders they've worked in the Obama White House this is a real Beltway swampy kind of establishment type podcast and so he can loosen his tie a little bit here he he's speaking with with his colleagues in many ways they can exactly with his Bros they can joke about how the firm works and and so he's joking oh yeah in between one tweet then we had a 20-minute Open primary and then another tweet that's how it works and but then he makes it really serious at the end he says oh wait a second I'm in I'm in public uh but you know what's really amazing is how unified we all are we're unified totally unified a lot of unity I've been seeing in this podcast and in in a sense the Democrats are unified they've accepted that Kamala is just the person they're going to have to run this time uh but no one's excited about it including John favro including Gavin Nome and most importantly including those moderate and Centrist voters that they're going to have to try to pull over in the swing States M um they they they're panicked and they should be panicked because she's peaked that's how it looks if you did not vote for this economic downturn and who did well we know who did and the high inflation you might want to do something about it right now you're paying for it at the pump the grocery store growing stacks of unpaid bills sitting there Financial stress can be crushing 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