Can far-right Alternative for Germany govern after first state election win ? | DW News

AfD wins big in Thuringia and Saxony elections projected results in state elections here in Germany indicate that the alternative for Germany the afd has won its first state election in the inindia now it's on course to be the second biggest party in the state of Saxony behind the Conservative Christian democrats the afd is an anti-immigrant party that opposes the German government's funding of military aid to Ukraine now if these projected results prove correct they will deal a blow to parties in Germany's federal coalition government and to talk more about the wider implications of these elections Chief International Editor Richard Walker on national implications I'm again joined in the studio here by Richard Walker our chief International editor Richard just explain to us and our audience what does this mean for Germany's overall political landscape these these projections now yeah so so what we're seeing here is the afd the farri party that that's been um growing steadily in Germany for the last decade or so is now pretty much confirmed as the strongest political force in Eastern Germany the former um the part of Germany that that used to be ruled by the communist um we got a first glimpse of this uh in the European elections this summer um when the afd came in clear first place in every Eastern German State uh and aside from Berlin um and what we're seeing now in these two states is in thuringia so in one of the states that is voted today the FD coming clear top with a 7 percentage Point margin of Victory roughly over 6 or 7% over uh the mainstream conservatives and that is for a party that is led by a man who who is extremely controversial um a man who has been um who has been convicted in courts of using Nazi slogans in his speeches this is the man who is now leading the party that came top in that state um in the neighboring state of Saxony that we're also looking at here the FD becoming second but really hot on the heels of the mainstream conservatives also gaining votes compared to the last time around um so a strong showing for the afd for the this far right party on top of that we have a far-left party that is surging that has gone from zero to uh a significant uh polling in both of those States and what both of those parties have in common um is a very kind of pro-russia foreign policy saying that it's time for Germany to stop uh supporting Ukraine and its fight against Russia's Invasion and I think that's a sign of the sort of political stress in the system in German Society with with the current course that that Germany is following and I think what's going to be interesting is to see what kind of an effect that may or may not have on the bigger mainstream parties for instance the mainstream conservatives in Saxony also ran on a platform saying uh that it's time for Germany to rethink it its uh its position towards the Ukraine war Richard we've just got some Pro Ed results in through India so I'm just going to interrupt you there and we can we can take a look at those as I say the projected results are in for the state Election projections in Thuringia of through India let's let's take a look at the numbers the left party that had been leading a fragile minority government has suffered pretty significant losses it has 12.4% of the vote the far right alternative for Germany is the largest party with 30.8% the Conservative Christian democrats the CDU have 24.5% the center left Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Schultz have 7% the greens are on 4% and the free Democrats have 1.2% the SAR vagen canest Alliance or BSW a new left-wing populist party has had a quite significantly good debut with 15.8% of the vote let's see what these numbers will have an impact on the seats for each party in Thia State Parliament it's going to look like this when the farri right alternative for Germany projected to take 30 seats the Conservative Christian democrats look said to have 24 the leftwing populist BSW as I say that's the SAR varen canest Alliance that's predicted to take 15 seats the former governing party the left is projected to have 12 and the center left SPD Chancellor Olaf Schultz's party is set to have seven seats we can go back to our chief Chief Political Correspondent Nina Haase on Thuringia results political correspondent Nina haa in aord in Thia uh Nina a projected wi for the far right as as we have been reporting I just would be interested to get your initial thoughts on on those figures that we've that we've just heard well Jared of course there's still um it's not clear yet we don't have the final results they they are uh trickling in at the moment those numbers from the polling stations and we are already seeing a difference when you look at the numbers that public broadcas at aod are giving us to the numbers that public broadcas at ZF are giving us so it's still um not the final results having said that of course it does still look as though the afd this far right party and especially its right-wing extremist chapter here in theing is uh making is essentially um celebrating a victory here today now whether that means that they're going to go into government here in airort that is far from Clear it's highly unlikely at this point because so far all the more traditional democratic parties have said that they are standing by this firewall that they say um is necessary to keep them at Bay this anti-immigration anti-establishment anti- system if you will party that ban hooker the lead candidate has established here in this state but if you look at those seats that is sending another another very very crucial message for everybody to look out for because Germany has a complicated political system but it does come down to just how many seats does a party get in a parliament if you get onethird of the seats in a regional Parliament that means that whether or not you're in government you have a so-called blocking minority so anything a presential government under the conservatives for example with some other coalition Partners uh like the new BSW movement together potentially with the SPD and um also the left party could form um anything they would suggest could be blocked by a party that has a third of the seats in the regional Parliament now that might sound um too complicated but it means that essentially the afd can wield influence from Tomorrow onwards if they want to or from when um the final results have come in the potential for significant influence as as you've been describing Nina uh you've also been describing how this this firewall of the established parties to keep the afd at Bay if the afd isn't able to to govern will they try and argue this as as being undemocratic that is something that they always do and you also have to admit that um it is fairly common political procedure for any party that comes out on top uh in those election results to say okay now it's up to us to uh Start Coalition talks and to start forming a government that is not something that is unique to the afd we've already heard Bon herker the lead candidate of the afd say exactly that he says that voters have given him essentially the highest position in this election so it's up to him to form a government however having said having mentioned already the firewall it is very unlikely that he'll manage to do that just now but of course the voices are growing louder who are saying we need a more pragmatic approach so there is going to be a lot of pressure um within the conservatives but also within Olaf Schultz's party where people are saying it hasn't worked to just warn people of this anti-immigration right-wing extremist group it also hasn't worked to say we'll just do better politics then then we need a different approach and maybe that means to work together with them in some Fields one field or another and that truly would be a watershed moment for Germany now Nina one of the I guess Coalition constellations that people are talking about already is an alliance between the CDU which according to the figures looks to be ahead and the new Sara vagen kest Alliance this is a left-wing migration skeptic party that that was formed just just at the beginning of this year could you tell us a little bit more about this party indeed and Jared describing this party just uh shows again just how difficult it is to describe this party zaka faren KET was a member of the left party so you could argue that she is a left-wing politician but then she founded her she broke away from the left party she founded her own movement a couple of months ago and um essentially gave it her own name so this is the zaret alliance now we don't know what this party really stands for from what we can tell zarag Kate has positions that are very far left when it comes to social politics when it comes to equality of income for example but as far as migration is concerned I wouldn't call the zarag KET Alliance a left-wing party this is definitely something that you could also hear from more Centrist conservative or even right-wing parties her positions in that field so she's the big question mark tonight and we'll definitely have to try and find out just what she stands for but that is also a challenge for those who want to enter a coalition government with her that's our chief political correspondent Nina haza in erford Nina thank you very much and our political correspondent Matthew Moore from an anti-AfD protest in Thuringia Matthew Moore is also in Ord Matthew good to see you you're in front of the state Parliament where approach protest against the far ride is happening at the moment what what's it like there and what are people telling you yes Jared that's right this was a protest arranged as one of the organizers told me basically to offer a space for people to come together who may be frustrated who may be angry who may be disappointed in the results um and also people who may be scared by the results tonight and really that describes the atmosphere because it's flat it's really for Lo there's a sense of real NE negativity in the air and you speak to people and they say they kind of lost hope and then on the next breath they say ah but when people come together like this it shows that we are in the majority that there are enough of us who are against this far right party and so they say that they wanted to show that there are that that there's a majority that that really is against these farri politics of the afd who have come out first tonight and it's also about seeing that other people think the same way you that there's a sense of community and so although it's been flat and for and there's been moments where people have come together and they've been hugged and and listening to speeches and there's been some chuckling and laughing as they've sang but yeah the mood overall really flat really concerned about what the future holds for the state of trinia and Germany now Matthew you've been traveling around the region recently you've done some explainers for our Instagram account at DW news just tell us what were some of the issues that have been really important to people that that you were sort of able to gather when you were talking to them and what kind of messages do you think that they wanted to send at The Ballot Box today yeah so in my reporting there was two there's two sides to this you you meet people who are either who see this as a very critical moment in tring's history in German history who see it as a moment where um angst if as they see in Germany where people are afraid and they're voting because they're afraid and then they're trying to kind of promote a a side of trinia that's open that's welcoming because they say you know their neighbors are from are from other other countries they they're foreigners and here and they're worried about how they feel in this state as the far right continues to go up the poles and then on the other hand you speak to people who say for them that's not the issue the issue is is the war in Ukraine they're really concerned about security about German money being spent on weapons in Ukraine they were concerned about Germany potentially being dragged into a wider conflict and then there's also the issue of immigration which is at the background whenever you speak to people um about German politics because either people think that this is a big problem because they're worried about too many people who are coming to Germany and that the German system cannot cope um or that German system cannot cope with integrating people and so there's there's there's there's a kind of competing mix of issues and depending on who you speak to you see that they have different views on how they should be tackled let's go to Saxony now and turn Election projections from Saxony to the expected results from there projections are indicating a slight lead for the Conservative Christian democrats or CDU right now the CDU is in a governing Coalition with the greens and the center-left social Democrats now projections have the CDU on track to win over 31% of the vote they're followed closely behind by the far right afd with about 30% now this newcomer party the BSW or the Sara vagen Kester Alliance is in third place taking around 12% of the ballots the SPD so that's Chancellor Olaf schulz's social Democrats they're in fourth with around 8 1 12% followed by the greens with just over 5% of the vote let's take a closer look at the balance of power in saxony's Parliament after these elections and these projections now the conservative CDU has won the most seats with 43 according to the projections followed closely behind by the afd with 41 the SAR of arest Alliance BSW would be the third largest party taking 16 seats Chancellor Olaf Schultz's SPD and the greens round out the remainder taking 12 and eight seats respectively and our chief political correspondent Michaela kufner is in Dresden she's at Chief Political Editor Michaela Küfner explains Saxony results an event for the Conservative Christian democrats Michaela just wondering your initial thoughts after hearing those figures well here in Saxony particularly the state Premier from the conservatives Mich ketma is celebrating that he and one can say he Pary was able to hold the farri afd party at Bay here he with a bit of luck and uh More Counting if if these results are firmed up they're very good news for him because they could potentially allow him to continue the current Coalition with the social Democrats which is the chancellor Chancellor's a very own party and Ola Schultz's party and the freedom and the green sorry who just about made it into the regional um Parliament here so he's uh providing stability where others are getting the Jitters in neighboring theing uh because of the afd coming top so that's the huge success story at the same time everybody here has heard the message uh that the faride afd is stronger than uh they could have expected just a couple of years ago and that it certainly won't go away and M kma could also potentially find himself in a position where he might need to seek a completely new Coalition with a completely new party um withar which is led by a former left uh party leading figure who has pretty much a right-wing um take on migration here in Germany so she is a populist as well all very complicated options in the one could say this is a laboratory really for what potential coalitions there could be if and that's a big if the far right afd manages to get upwards of 30% nationally here in Germany but it isn't it's around about 15 16% so there's a limit to what this tells us about where Germany nation wide is politically right now yeah I I wanted to ask you a bit more about that I mean Germany is holding Federal elections I I think in around a year's time it's next year at least uh the CDU would be looking at these results today and and being quite delighted with them one would expect a year out from federal elections yes the conservative CDU is going to be pretty pleased I would also expect the opposition leader the leader of the CDU Fred matz to be very pleased uh with himself as well over these election results at the same time the person who made this happen m kma is an exceptional figure within the conservative Camp he holds a very unusual position of not continuing with the level of support for Ukraine we're seeing right now I spoke to people behind the scenes they within the conservative CDU they see Zero chance of that actually feeding into what the conservatives see as a national policy proposed proposals but it also shows that uh a bit of flexibility this whole campaign that was also run on do you want war or peace uh here in the East which is very much uh unwilling to look at Russia completely as aggressor only and that this makes a difference so it's a very different tone of conservatism uh that managed to succeed here at East now Michaela let's talk about another important party in in all of this this is the the newcomer the the populist BSW the SAR vest Alliance a left-wing migration skep dick party that's managed to do very well in in just a few short months since it was founded at the beginning of this year uh what are your initial um thoughts about about this Alliance and how well it's done well in short it shows that it's almost like a mathematical populism formula that taking elements of left-wing policy on social spending for instance and elements of right-wing policy which is anti-migration can work um this party uh launched a spectacular rise immediately hitting double digits just after a couple of months but also because of the very personal popularity of Zara V so at the very least it proves uh that Germany too um is becoming more and more about her personality politics and that uh populism if you merge it from both sides of the political Spectrum can be a formula for Success butar could still shake up the political landscape you hear from the former Big 10 parties like Olaf Schultz's social Democrats that they feel that they are splintering the political landscape here in Germany but you know they they clearly are providing a voice for many people who felt unheard she has single-handedly pretty much destroyed the left party in the East the left party which is the successor of the Communists here in uh former East Germany and uh she clearly uh has an appetite for more so uh she's an upcoming Force certainly in the East I very much doubt she's able to replicate any of that in the old west of Germany that's DW's Chief political editor Michaela kufner there in Dresden for us thanks a lot Michaela