Can Texas Rangers rely on Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter to hold down rotation spots in 2025?

the Vandy boy breakout late in the season has been great for the Rangers and their hopes for the future but how much can Texas rely on those two first round picks next year you are locked on Rangers your daily Texas Rangers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day you are locked on to the World Series champion Texas Rangers I'm Bryce Patrick a cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers Fan covering this team for 11 seasons including all six as the founder and host of this podcast thanel so much for making lockon Rangers your first listen every single day if you're not already you can follow me on Twitter at Bryce Patrick you can follow the show at lockon Rangers Hit subscribe on your favorite podcasting platform and on YouTube where the best way you can help grow the show is to comment nearly any single thing below now before we get into what the Rangers rotation will look like next year how much they can rely on the injury-prone pictures that they've got on the payroll for next season this episode is brought to you by FanDuel now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a 3-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV visit fanduel.com locked on to get started now the Rangers head into Chicago today for a three game series and on Wednesday even though the listed starter is listed as TBD we are almost certainly going to get Jack ligh of returning back to the big leagues for his fourth Major League start which I'm hoping and given his recent run of form and thinking it will be his best Major League start just to get some of that early bad taste out of his mouth but it's got me thinking about the long term about next year and about those two guys and really about the Rangers rotation in general the Rangers are going to be in a weird spot next year coming off you know there will be two years removed from a World Series Championship they will be coming off of a season that it feels almost a certainty that they're going to have a sub 500 record I mean right now they are 11 games below 500 say you sweep the card say you sweep the white socks which you should do because you are not a terrible team the white socks are a terrible team so then you just s eight games away from 500 with a couple more I think just actually will be one more before you hit the month of September but they'll head into the season next year with well some question marks some big question marks and a little bit fewer question marks than we thought they would have heading into this year given the strides the Rangers have made with homegrown pitchers most notably I'd say Cody Bradford yes I know that Jack ligher and Kamar rocker have been the Talk of the Town over the last couple weeks and they should be they've been fantastic but there was expectations on those guys there was a lot more hope riding on those guys there is obviously a much much higher ceiling with those two guys then Cody Bradford but Bradford being just another name a homegrown name cheap controllable pre- guy who could give you quality starts fit into your rotation that is a huge huge breakthrough now what are the Rangers going to need from their rotation next year well they're going to need it to be at least average hopefully above average hopefully they get the offense back from 2023 make it look a little bit more like itself with what will be a full off season because this team is not going to go on a monthlong playoff run like they did in 2023 so more time for rest resetting uh motivation of getting back to being the offensive team that they were when they won the championship so hopefully there will be less pressure on the starting rotation next year than there was this year which by the way the starting rotation pretty much held up there end of the bargain the back end of the bullpen pretty much held up there into the bargain it is really most of the season's sying is on the offense so what does any team need from their rotation well I wouldn't average it out for you know five innings per start just conservatively five innings per start that is 810 Innings from the starters you look over the last couple of years ideally you would have five guys in your rotation they would all make all 32 with 33 starts they'd all throw about 180 to 200 Innings and everything would be amazing but not everybody can be the Mariners in terms of guys who have started more than one game for the Rangers this year there has been 10 last year there was nine I wouldn't look just to double check with the Mariners that I wasn't just you know hyping them up unnecessarily but they have six guys who have made more than one start this year which is absolutely incredible their top four starters have made I believe 25 starts at this point of the season are on Pace to make basically all of their starts and all be pretty above average pitchers the Rangers don't have that they're working towards that that would be the goal but they don't have that right now so what do they need from their starters well they need some depth they've got some depth guys they need some topend guys you need when you head into the playoffs three playoff caliber starters and and you need your guys to be mostly healthy so let's look at the locks for next year's rotation obviously at the start at the top is Jacob deg Gro now how many innings could the Rangers Bank on him next year well obviously I would love for him to make all 33 starts and throw 220 Innings and win a sa young and have a one and a half erra and look like the best pitcher on the planet but I'm also a little bit realistic just a little bit realistic so I'm hoping for this is still a hopeful projection of 140 Innings from deg Grom next year I don't think that's unreasonable I don't think that's unattainable I'm hoping that he breaks past that but I think the the days of him throwing 200 innings are probably done even if he is fully healthy for the full season the Rangers will be a little gun shy I would think I mean how can you not be over him as last two season last three season last basically since after the pandemic he hasn't had a fully healthy season and so how can you not be a little gun-shy about wanting him to if you are in contention for the playoffs be ready for the playoffs because this guy is a game as a game one starter is absolutely the best pitcher on the freaking planet if he's on the mount now your other luck for otation next year is Tyler m who is currently on the 15-day I after being on the 60-day I for most the season after missing most of this season and most of last season with Tommy John surgery he is dealing with some shoulder soreness had his velocity we down in his last start was technically precautionary as the Rangers said but um we'll see how much we see him from now till the end of the season he is your other lock in this rotation but you go back and you look at the history of Mali and he is not a guy with the history of being out there for 150 180 200 Innings heck he's only had one season with more than 150 Innings that was 180 back in 2021 in 2022 when he split time between Cincinnati and Minnesota he pitched 120 in two3 Innings last year he pitched 25 and 23s Innings but have before having Tommy John surgery he' had 129 in two-third Innings as his career high back in 2019 mostly healthy during the pandemic season but you know that's only a 47 ining workload and then before that is well it was basically his rookie year was 112 Innings so I'm counting on hoping for maybe 120 Innings out of Mali next year which is not a whole lot and you know it gives me pause and hope that I hope that he's healthy for 150 Innings banking on him going over 150 innings uh as opposed to Jacob deg Grom feels like a safer bet since Mali will be 30 next year still you know four years younger than than Jacob deg Gro right now um but still not a guy with a big long track record of staying super healthy being super durable um and being that guy who you know goes out there every fifth day and takes the ball and goes five six seven Innings so the Rangers will need some help from elsewhere in the rotation but where they're sitting right now they've got some help both at the big league level right now and help on the way but how much are the Rangers going to bank on that and can they be counted on to spend anything in free agency talk about that and the young Vandy boys right after this word from our sponsors this show is brought to you by FanDuel you've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel America's number one sports book well we have something a little different for you now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 get a 3-we free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV then with the YouTube TV B base plan you'll be able to watch every regular season afternoon Sunday Sunday afternoon after out of Market game all you'll need is a Google account and a current form of payment and you can cancel anytime if you wanted to look at some of the odds that fanduels got for winning the AOS well right now the Rangers at plus 13,000 the Astros of the favorite at minus 650 but those Mariners are sneaking back in it at plus 440 or if you're wanting to bet on World Series winners right now Dodgers are at plus 310 Phillies plus 470 Yankees plus 550 so go check it out visit fanduel.com lockon to download America's number one Sportsbook shout out to the everyday for making lock down Rangers your first listen every single day tonight the Rangers take on the white socks 710 p.m. central Time first pitch it's going to be a couple of great lefties Andrew Heeney versus Garrett crochet you can catch every pitch on Sirius XM just download the s xxm app and search Rangers now you may have noticed one key name Miss missing from my locks who was a guy who I think will probably start quite a few games for the Rangers next year though I don't have quite in the same Echelon as Jacob deg Grom or even Tyler Mali and that is John Gray now for John Gray I think ideally in the postseason and ideally on a very very competitive team with a very good rotation um which I'm not sure the Rangers will have next year hoping they will have but not quite sure they will have next year I don't love gray as your number three starter but heading into next year assuming the Rangers don't sign anybody which I don't know is a likelihood but definitely a possibility gray will be probably your number three out of camp but he's not a guy with a long history of staying super healthy pitching 200 Innings uh either not that really anybody on this roster is I mean his career high in innings was 172 back in 2018 he did Pitch 157 in the third Innings last year was healthy for for basically the entire season until that fateful end of season when he went on the I and wasn't available to come back until the postseason until late in the postseason where he was a dynamite dynamite reliever which is kind of where I'm hoping he will be in the Rangers you know organization if they make the playoffs in 2025 which I'm feeling pretty decent about them doing so I'm penciling him for about 130 innings Cody Bradford the biggest breakthrough developmentally for the Rangers this year has been Cody Bradford I don't think there's a question about that of guys who you didn't have huge expectations for but made big big strides Cody Bradford is a legit middle of rotation pitcher as he's pitching right now probably more likely a number four or a number five but a good number four or a number five and a homegrown one which again the Rangers have not done in freaking forever that is a developmental win that is a huge huge win now how healthy can he stay next year he dealt with some injury issues this year he dealt with some injury issues in college uh the injuries really set him back quite a bit this year I think he may end up with 60 70 Innings hopefully closer to 70 Innings by the time the year is done but next year in terms of how many innings I'm PCH penciling him in in the starting r I'd say 120 is about a fair bet for how many starts he's going to make how healthy he is going to be hoping it's more thinking it definitely can be more but you go back and you look at his career through the minor leagues through uh even College the most Innings he's pitched in a single season was back in 2022 that is when he spent the whole year with Frisco he had 26 starts that year8 and 2/3 Innings so around 120 is about uh where he's been I think he could go up all the way to 150 but again depending on the breakouts breakthroughs how much you're getting from those youngsters in lighter and rocker that will kind of determine a bit of where his innings are going if the Rangers spend in free agency that will kind of you know alter how many innings he's going to pitch and you know how healthy Mali and deg Grom and everybody else in this rotation are that will also kind of fact in so I'm penciling him in for about 120 Innings and then of course you got the Workhorse Dane Dunning not spectacular this year kind of really a down year for him I mean a five ER last year he was the Rangers pitching MVP 172 and 23s Innings the Rangers do not win the World Series without Dane dunning's contributions during the regular season the year before his 1503 innings were massive but ideally Dunning is kind of your long man you're penciled in you know hopping in there for a spot start every once in a while that's kind of the ideal spot in the rotation for him also he's had some injury issues this year a couple of shoulder injuries that have landed him on the I for two separate stance so I'm not entirely sure about how many innings the Rangers are penciling him in for next year I think on the you know more aggressive side 140 maybe 100 Innings is a little bit more likely so I I said 140 for this exercise so that would leave us with 160 Innings left for the Rangers this is not penciling in any free agents anything from the VY boys just yet you have 160 Innings to fill now let's look at those fny boys let's start with Jack ligher now of the two ligher has a little bit more he has well you know three starts more of MLB experience he has a little bit more minor league experience than Kamar rocker he has a much healthier track record of durability than than rocker does but again his floor is lower his ceiling is lower but I think the Rangers are going to need him as a starter and penciling in 120 Innings from lighter next year in the big leagues I don't think that's out of the question I don't think it's out of the question that he makes the rotation out of camp in terms of guys who I feel good about making the rotation out of Camp I think I might even feel better about rocker just straight up making out of Camp because what he's doing is incredible but for lighter the Rangers are going to need him hopefully as a starter but I think we're going to find out a lot about Jack over the next couple of weeks through the end of the season what he looks like in these big league starts coming back up if these changes are real and sustainable as a starting pitch or if he's just going to be I say just if he is going to be a nasty nasty backend reliever because he is back to getting that floor of an elite elite backend reliever not just a pretty good you know six seventh inning guy that you can pencil in in a couple leverage situations no that is the stuff the floor I think at this point is an elite closer which isn't what the Rangers want which isn't what Jack wants but the fact that that's the floor getting back to that that is a big big step for Jack and in terms of the Rangers banking on him to you know make you know 30 starts next year and give them 150 to 180 Innings they're not doing that they're not asking that of Jack hoping unless there's some kind of injury Bonanza that befalls the Rangers starting pitchers which uh we've never seen that before but at this point where we are looking forward even being on the most pessimistic side on the free agent market I'll get to that a little bit later in the third segment of what the Rangers could do in free agency what I hope they do and what I think they might do um but banking on 120 Innings from Jack ligher I think that's a a safe bet for the Rangers and if it if he comes back up if he starts to regress I think the Rangers no matter what happens and however many starts he gets back up at the Major League level from now to the end of the season I think they're definitely going to keep trying him as a starter next year if he starts to regress back again in Triple A next season if he doesn't make the roster out of Camp if he starts to regress and go back to his old bad habits and ends up looking more like a reliever because the command just isn't quite there to be a starter then you're not going to get starting Innings from Jack next year but even if that's the case the Rangers have another Young Kamar rocker who has the ceiling of an ace always did and is now looking like he is closer than ever to realizing that at the big league level but there's a lot of injury concerns with Kamar rocker and how many innings can the Rangers Bank on him next year even if he is at his best and dominating at the big league level we'll look at that and some free agent options for the Rangers on the starting pitching side right after this R from our sponsors this show is brought to you by Supply housee get supplies from the site that's made for the skilled trades supplyhouse.com supplyhouse.com is the reliable way to order Plumbing HVAC and electrical products online their easy to use website is packed with helpful resources and the latest product info to help you get the job done right shop a complete inventory of over 200,000 parts from over 400 top brands get your order delivered right to your door with fast shipping from coast to coast need help with an order get expert support in industry leading service 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from Rangers Prospect the change up is really darn good we haven't even seen the cutter cuz he hasn't needed it at all against double A hitters or against uh well Arizona complex League hitters I'm sure he didn't need it against them um but the stuff is that good and he also commands it incredibly well not only has the great stuff but the command those two things when they come together that is what makes Elite game one starting caliber starting pitchers at the major league level that's what makes Jacob De Grom so gosh darn good is because he has got the elite stuff and the impeccable command those two together is a deadly deadly combination but with Kamar rocker the questions are no longer what the heck is going on with that delivery can he get anywhere back to the hopes of you know number one starting pitcher type of ceiling or heck what the heck is going on with them that were there the first year first you couple of Arizona fall league starts less so in Hickory completely gone now with what he's done in Frisco the question now becomes how healthy can you keep Kamar rocker and even if he is fully healthy how much do you just let it eat because since his last year at Vander bolt he has pitched a total of I believe if my math is correct uh 80 not even 90 Innings so far this year he's thrown 26 and 2/3 between seven Innings of rehab in the Arizona complex League 19 and 2/3 innings in daa Frisco and I think a decent barometer for this year of him you know his end of year total was probably around 50 so that's what makes me think he doesn't come up to the big leagues this year along with it necessitating a 40 man roster clearing spot not that they couldn't do that or wouldn't do that or won't do that anyway in the off season um but I think that that is less likely I'm hoping it happens I would love to see Kamar rocker dominating Big League hitters as soon as possible but I think they might temper the expectations on that and for next year I think he's absolutely going to be in the major leagues at some point next year whether he you know makes the rotation out of Camp because he's just so gosh darn good whether he is close and starts the year in Frisco and comes up by I don't know Memorial Day or maybe even before then great would love to see that but in terms of his overall health for next year I mean the most Innings he will have pitched in a full season will be this 50 innings since throwing 122 his final year of Vander bow so how are the Rangers going to limit his Innings I would assume it be somewhere around the 80 to 120 inning Mark for next year maybe it's around 100 you settle on a compromise there I don't know exactly what it'll look like I don't think that they're going to follow the Steven strawberg method of just keep pitching until you reach that Innings limit and then we shut you down for the whole year I don't think that's how they're going to do it I think they'd break it up in little stin of two three weeks um being optioned and then put on the you know development list just for some rest and resetting his arm kind of like they've done with lighter a couple of times this year um and obviously that worked wonders because that's what happened with lighter um right before he came back up in his last two starts and dominated and got called back up to the big leagues but I think hoping for anywhere between 80 to 120 Innings from rocker next year even if if he's fully healthy at the big league level is probably about where you get yourself now let's look a little bit at free agency I think the Rangers most likely move in free agency would be to bring back Nathan yaldi if he gets I believe it's 33 23 more Innings over his next till the end of the season he will have that $20 million player option but according to spot track his value on the open market would be two years $48 million I think the Rangers have the budget to do that I think he would like to come back but you get to that point and that age and we'll see what the Rangers actually end up doing they'll have somewhere around 60 to 70 maybe even as much as $90 million in room before they hit the CBT so even if Ray Davis doesn't want to hit that CBT he can push up against it and still spend a decent chunk of change this off season so I would love to see Nathan yaldi back Andrew Heeney he's valued on the market at two years 22 million he's been very valuable for the Rangers this year I wouldn't really love to see him starting a playoff game so I wouldn't want to spend any more than you know $1 million a year but he's been very valuable for the Rangers very durable much more so than they expected so I would not be surprised to see him back as for sherzer I have no idea he's valued of spot track is market value is one year $14 million I don't see the Rangers doing that I don't really see the them spending at the top of the market even though I would very much like them to so that you have a playoff rotation of deg Grom and either Max freed or Corbin Burns Max Fred's contract is projected to be six years $128 million he's had some injury concerns some durability concerns so I would be a little wary on that burns hasn't had those injury and durability concerns he's been fantastic might win another sa young this year 6 years $183 million that's 30 mil year I think the r might get out bid for that by Baltimore with new ownership and a lot of room to spend and him already having spent a year in Baltimore I think they will be very motivated to bring him back but a guy in kind of the bargain Ben not to you know pejoratively crown him that but a guy who I think the Rangers could get very good value in something that like they did with Tyler Mali this past off season getting a guy who is you know coming off of an injury or well several injuries but Walker ber listed at one year $3.7 million in terms of contract value that feels like an absolute bargain if the Rangers could go up and do that I know there are a lot of injury red flags there is a very decent chance that he does not throw more than 20 30 innings for the Rangers next year but the Rangers have a very good Training staff despite all of these injuries this year and a lot of injuries last year they have a very good training staff that I mean go look at how healthy Cory Seager has been this year as opposed to his time with the Dodgers that is a big big Mark in the Rangers favor also Marcus Simon being able to play this many games in a row also a credit to Marcus Simon and the training staff helping keep him healthy I think that could be something the Rangers might at least look at but you got to have at least three playoff starters and if the Rangers rotation heads into October you're hoping that Jacob De gr's healthy if your number two starter is Nathan e avaldi coming back that's a great spot to feel and if your number three starter is maybe Kamar rocker you feel really good good about your hopes in the playoffs especially if your rotation is fully healthy which never is at the end of the year but if the Rangers you know bring back I evaldi as their only big free agent signing maybe say they also bring back Robertson and Yates which I hope they do and I think they should and even though I don't know if Yates is going to have a sub one and a half ra next year I think he's going to be pretty darn good again because he just looks like very much the guy that was one of if not the best relever in allo baseball back in 2019 um but even if that's all they do you have a playoff rotation you head into it you have a healthy Jacob Gro at thee of it for game one you have Nate e evaldi game two and then game three say manage manage those Innings correctly and you have Kamar rocker as your game three starter even if he is a rookie I feel really really good about that rotation heading up against anybody especially if you have that back end of the pen solidified if you have you know Jack lighter at that point would be in the back of the pen he would not be starting playoff games and then you also would have John Gray in the back end of the pen given whoever else is there even if it's just those two as your two best back-end Believers I feel pretty solid about that then if you bring back a healthy spores who hopefully would be healthy at that point we'll see about his health next year he's been uh really hit and missed with the health the last couple of years if you have a Robertson a Yates and then you know your four leverage levers are those guys plus John Gray plus Jack lighter that is a team depending on where the offense bounces back next year that could look to do the Boi thing and go one year win a World Series one year miss the playoffs one year win a World Series hopefully they could try that whole three out of four thing because I think a dynasty sounds really darn nice but either way the shape of the Rangers rotation next year it's looking to be in a decent spot even if you are on the pessimistic side of Ray Davis not spending any money in free agency the strides that Jack ligher and Kamar rocker and Cody Bradford have made has got to make you feel much much better about where this rotation will be next year than at least I definitely was at the start of this season that's going to do it for today's show thank you all so much for listening and subscribing and until next time don't forget to enjoy World Series champion Texas Rangers baseball