ESPN's Mike Clay on Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy & David Njoku

And with that, we welcome in and are thrilled to have ESPN senior NFL writer Mike Clay joining us and Mike. I know you heard that last little bit. Uh Did you have a Nick Harris touchdown in your 2024 projections for the Seahawks when you put them out or if you want to amend it to the Browns now. Yes. So look, I came on this show. It's, you know, it's a Cleveland show. I didn't realize you guys would be biased against your own players because I have them with three touchdowns. So I don't know what, no, you're sleeping on them. Let me tell you something though. Let me tell you this is, this is a big beef I got with ESPN right now. ESPN S Fantasy guys like Mike Clay, the great field, Yates, Stefania Bell. Uh All of them, they've been ducking me. They have, they have not allowed me in their fantasy leagues. I'll kick all their asses. You're not getting all their asses. They're afraid. That's right. They're scared. I'm the fantasy guru of Cleveland. I, you win last year. I did not win last year, but I won the year before I'm dominating my fantasy baseball league. Mike probably doesn't know who the hell I am. Field Yates has been on my podcast a number of times and I want to be, even though nobody that watches will know who I am outside of Cleveland, I want to be in an ESPN Fantasy League and I want to kick all your asses, Mike. What do you have to say about that? All right. Well, look, hey, if you promise to take Nick Harris with your first pick you're in, I mean, we'll put any, any amount of money on the line, what, whatever it takes. All right, Mike, when you look at the Browns, I first of all, I love how detailed your projections are. I mean, you've got it down to the completions down to the yards. It really is pretty incredible. I've said earlier in this segment and I don't think this is any shock and I don't think you find an expert nationally that would disagree with this. The biggest single question about the Cleveland Browns is, is Dehare Watson his quarterback play and I looked at your pro projections for him and although not earth shattering, I think most Browns fans would say we take that compared to what we've seen from him in the 11 games, he's played in an orange helmet. What makes you think that those numbers? I think it was 23 touchdowns, 11 picks. I I could be wrong a little bit but 21 1121 and 11, like how do you come up with that? What, what's your process? Yeah. So, uh, obviously I'm going to weigh things he's done in the NFL so far. So there's, uh a, a lean towards what he's done recently. But guys, the sample is so small because he's been off the field so much. So, I'm still looking back to what we've seen throughout his career when he has been healthy. I'm considering the supporting cast. I'm considering the fact uh that he is pretty good coaching. He is uh an outstanding offensive line. All those things are variables in this equation also, he wasn't that bad last year like he started slow and he had his moments where it was ugly, but uh he flashed at times as well. He flashed signs that he can get back to where he was before. He also threw for over 200 yards in his last uh four full games added some value with his legs. All those kind of things um are, are variables here. So, um I think he still has a shot to get back on track. I'm a little bit more optimistic than some others are, but that's kind of uh how it all comes together. Well, listen, I 3700, I've been saying the whole time if he plays 17, uh I need 4000 from you Deshaun 34. You've been saying no, no, no, no. Listen, it's always before 4545. Let me tell you something. Here's the deal. Those numbers that, that Mike has predicted for Deshaun Watson are completely fair based on what we've seen no more than fair. However, and they're not, again, I'm not saying I'm killing him if he has no season. But the, I've said this once, I'll say it a million times. The Browns, why they brought him here traded what they traded and paid him what they paid him to be a superstar. Not a good, those are good solid quarterback numbers. Baker Mayfield can put up those numbers for me. They didn't trade for him to be Baker Mayfield. Those are Baker Mayfield numbers. They're fine again compared to what the last two years have been. I can't kill him if that happens. But if that's the best he can give us in his time in Cleveland. It's, that's not good enough. You don't have to answer that. That wasn't a question. That was a statement. It really wasn't a question. That was a statement, but I might do that, Mike. Do you cosign that? Because Bulls, right? We gave up threes, three ones and we paid them, we broke the bank. We can, that's not break the bank numbers. Yeah, I mean, his last full season in the NFL guys, he led the NFL in passing yards, right. So we've seen what he can bring to the table, what his ceiling is. That's why you pay that much for a player of that caliber, not to mention that he was sixth in rushing yards among quarterbacks that uh that final season. So you want the, you want the whole package you gave up all that compensation not to get average or a little below average play, you paid that to get an elite, top five, top seven NFL quarterback. So I could not agree more. Uh The thing is guys though, as I'm sure we'll get to roster is very good, especially on the defensive side of the ball. So if he does play average football, they could still contend in the AFC. I mean, last year, I don't think a lot of people realize this but their offensive efficiency, you look at the advanced metrics very similar when he played, versus when Joe Flacco played. Actually, it was a little bit better with Watson. It didn't seem like it if you were watching, uh, the, just the, the footage, but, um, they had their moments kind of quietly where they were moving the ball. So, um, again, I, I do still lean on the optimistic side because we've seen it, uh, from him before. He's still in his prime. The supporting cast is good, but I agree if he puts up the numbers, I'm, I'm uh projecting, it's gonna be an OK season enough for them to be a contender in the AFC, but it's not what you, what you expected when you paid for, uh you know, paid that huge price for him. I'm, I'm looking at it from a perspective with Jerry Judy. Um coming in, a lot of people here are pessimistic. I wanna say pessimistic but they don't, they, they don't think that Jerry Judy is, is a, a number one guy when you look at his numbers uh that you have, what do you have Jerry Judy projected uh in his numbers because if Jerry Judy turns out to be a guy that I I is more like the first round pick that they got Deshaun Watson's numbers go up if Nick Chubb can come back and be 90% of what Nick Chubb is. Watson looks a lot better. Where do you got Jerry Judy in, in uh in terms of his, his production this year? Yeah, my projection right now, 61 catches 920 yards, four touchdowns. I think that's solid. Assume assuming Amari Cooper and David and Joko are healthy because those guys are obviously gonna be feature targets. So if you get 900 out of Jerry Judy and the other guys are on the field too, you probably had a pretty darn good season. Not to mention, I like Cedric will uh Cedric Tillman a lot too. So I'm hoping he come, uh you know, comes along, progresses in year two and they get something out of him uh as well. So, uh yeah, look, I think Judy, he's battled injuries himself. Uh, he's had to go through quarterback struggles and, and coaching changes in Denver. Uh, two years ago, it looked like he was, he was here. He had a big season a couple of years ago. It looked like he was the real deal. Kind of, the wheels fell off a little bit last year. But again, a lot was going wrong in Denver last season. They, uh, obviously changed quarterbacks during the off-season. So I'm still hopeful. He has a lot of raw talent and maybe the change of scenery will allow him to get to his ceiling. Mike. I just completed, uh, we, my, some guys I know I play with, uh, uh, we just completed a 30 round New Dynasty League and I, yeah, it was crazy by the third. I think my 30th round pick was actually Michael Thomas, who knows if he's gonna play again? But I mean, for the 30th round, yeah, I was taking mostly young guys at the end but, you know, whatever, but, but I took Nick Chubb who you're predicting. I think 10 games, 700 something yards. I took him with the 121st pick which I think was the first pick of the 13th round, either last pick of the 12th round or the first pick of the 13th round. Too high, too low. What do you, what do you think about Nick Ch? Yeah, you know what? I love the guy like you all do. You know, he's one of the best pure runners in the NFL. Um, uh, you know, I've been kind of out on him like everyone else, you know, at his age coming off a major injury. And also here's the thing with Nick Chubb from a fantasy perspective. He is super reliant on the big plays in the efficiency, right, that hall of fame level rushing ability because he doesn't do much in the passing game and uh they're gonna use other backs. We just, this is the nature of how he's been used throughout his career. He's just not too involved in the passing game, so he needs that. So if you say, ok, he's gonna come back and play, but he might be 70% of the runner. He was at least in 2024. That's not good. That's not good enough from a fantasy perspective. It's gonna be hard to rely on him. So I'm leaning pessimistic, but I'm hoping, you know, he gets back out in the field and has another great year, maybe a couple of good years. It's gonna be tough though off this injury. And, uh, and at his age, all those numbers that you put together for him, Mike, are you assuming that there's to be a number of weeks inactive at the beginning? And if so, is that a guess, are you getting intel? Like where is all that? He has him play 10 games? I saw OK. So, so where are you getting? Is it just a gut or are you hearing something that he just won't be ready until October? No, no, no, I'm not hearing anything. You guys are uh are not hearing, I'm, you know, speculating here that he'll start on IR or, you know, miss miss the first month or so of the season. Um These projections are year round, they're always fluid and if we get new information, we adjust just this morning. I adjusted for, uh, Jalen Phillips in Miami and up to up to his games played because he's gonna start the season, uh, in, in week one as opposed to like week five coming off that major knee injury. So, but you get good news on Chubb tomorrow or today, you know, I will update these accordingly. So, uh, again, I've kind of stuck with the 10 games for him for pretty much the whole off season assuming that he would miss a chunk of the season to start. What do you have Miles Garrett? Um, Miles Garrett, you know, I think he had 14 sacks last year or something last year because I've always been saying I want him to be upwards of 20 I like to see the tackles for loss to go up a little bit, but he wanted to do it the year before. Where do you, you already have him coming up? Yeah, I'm, I'm pretty conservative with, uh, sacks part of the reason is injury rates across the NFL and it's so hard to repeat high ceiling numbers but still at 12 for miles Garrett, uh in the projections, which is, which is a high number, uh, 20 is asking a lot, but if anyone can do it, he's certainly on uh the short list. But, uh I, you know, I like their edge rushing room. I think it's top three in the NFL, maybe, maybe the best group in the league. So, uh, you know, Garrett's obviously carrying a lot of the weight there. So superstar, I expect another huge season from him. And this whole defense, you know, I think they're, I think they're the best defense on paper and I was kind of alone last year on this, I'm sure a few of you were on board, people watching the team closely knew this, but they were my third ranked defense going into last season on paper. And, uh, I think it kind of flew under the radar but they just had the raw talent and now I could argue after kind of cementing themselves as, as an elite defense last year, they are on paper, the best group in the league. I'm keeping them Jay real quick. I, I'm in the keeper league where you keep five guys and I'm keeping the Browns team defense at a dollar $1. I've never in 24 years in this keeper league. I've never even considered keeping a defense it's a dollar and I went for it. So I traded a lot of my young players last year. So III, I, it's hard for me to get that Houston player to play out of my mind. Um, and that was, that was our last impression. I like you. I think they're gonna be a good defense, top five perhaps. But I don't know, I still have questions after what I saw against Houston in the playoff game. I'm wondering, you said when you get new information, Mike that you can, you know, it's constantly fluid. Uh, are you gonna downgrade Amari Cooper's numbers because he's pissed. Now, I, I have not, I, I have not yet. Um, I'm, I'm monitoring the situation very closely though. It is interesting, the, the rumors that kind of flown around, especially if they brought in, uh, after they brought in Jerry Judy, uh, this off season. But, uh, no, no adjustments right now, you know, Cooper kinda, you know, he's bounced around a few teams, you know, uh, conflicting opinions on how just how good he is over the years. He as consistent as they come. You know, we, we, uh, you know, talk about in fantasy a lot. He finishes like from 15th to 30th and Fantasy points bring in every year, like literally every year of his career. He's finished in that window. So he's never quite gotten over the top of that huge statistical ceiling, but he's never been bad. Either, he's just really been a really solid, really good player throughout his entire career. So no movement there. I expect him to do what he's always done. Mike, you also on top of doing player projections, do the weekly score projections, the win percentage and projected win totals. You had the Browns through your model winning 10 games, which was the eighth most in the NFL. Are you buying into the Browns as being a legitimate contender in this gauntlet? That is the Mike playoff contender or something. If he has the projection as a top 18, that means they'll be one of the top seeds in the AFC. Do you, do you believe this team is good enough to win a Super Bowl? I, I think they have the raw talent. Yes, I think uh I have them actually ranked just, just grading the units which I'm working on an article right now. It's gonna be up on ESPN, I think later this week or next week where I grade, uh, every unit, every team write, write some of those units up as well. I do it every year. Um, was very optimistic on Cleveland last year and I'm very optimistic again this season. They come in fifth in those unit rankings, best defense and mid pack in offense. So how do they get over the top and win the Super Bowl? You guys, it was the first thing you said when I came on. It's the, it's the obvious answer. It's the quarterback position. How good is Deshaun Watson if you're going to compete with Patrick Mahomes and, uh, Lamar Jackson and even, you know, upstart teams like Houston or even the Jets who I think are a powerhouse. I think the Jets will be a powerhouse this year. They are absolutely stacked on paper. They have the same question, you know, how, what are they gonna get out of the quarterback? So that's the question is Deshaun Watson average? Is, does, is he not very good? Is he elite again? Who is he? Uh, that's gonna really drive home. How good the Browns are this year? And by the way, if he does play high ball and he's a top five, top 10 quarterback, no doubt about it. I think Cleveland will be right there and they're running to go to the Super Bowl this year, Mike. Uh, remember you heard it from me first? Everybody's high on the Jets. I'm projecting. They are, they are a bust even though you're right. They have great talent but Aaron Rodgers is 40 coming off an achilles tear. I besides Tom Brady who's played great at 40 years old. II, I just don't buy it, especially coming off an achilles tear. That is a devastating injury. I just don't, everybody loves the Jets and I get it because the talent around him is really good. I love Breece Hall. I love, you know, you love everybody on that. Team. I just think Rogers is gonna be at best pedestrian this year, in my opinion. And I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt again. And then what are they doing? I don't, I know the players on the team are like, well, we got Taro Taylor. Yeah. Ok. Good luck there. It's better than what you had, but you're not winning anything with Taro Taylor. Yeah. Uh, look, I hear you but similar to Cleveland, I think that they have a, such a good team around him that even if he is average, they can, they can be in contention. Are they gonna get over the top and be like the Niners or the Chiefs? Probably not. Uh, if he's, if they get average play out of him, uh, but I think that's probably the floor, you know, I think they, uh, I think he probably saw another good season in the tank. He looked like he had it last year. I know he's coming off the Achilles, but it's not like he's gonna be running the ball. Right. We're not talking about scrambling quarterback here is that has to hang in the pocket and get it to these top skill guys and they couldn't do that. I mean, they've had the league worst quarterback play for years now, just, just way behind everyone. Nelson, quarterback, efficiency, offensive efficiency, a passing touchdowns, you name it. It's been just dreadful for guys like Garrett Wilson. So even getting average play can move the needle for this team so far. Uh Because of how good that defense is, not to mention, you know, last year, I was worried about them because the offensive line was a concern and obviously it was because they just revamped it this past season and it's substantially better now. So I think now, you know, I feel a lot better about them now than I did last year just because the guys around Rogers are substantially better. A lot of similarities between the Browns, not just this year, going back last decades, Mike, great stuff. Uh Give my best to field. Tell him that the U CS S crew says hi and we'll talk, I'm sure again later this season. All right. Sounds great. Thanks a lot guys.