David Njoku's Splits Between Flacco & Watson is INSANE! | 2024 Fantasy Football

David Njoku welcome into the fantasy football Forge my name is Steve and it is time for class we are going to do another player highlight here with David and joku being the focus of this episode should be a quick one uh and just like last time I will go over some announcements for those newer to the channel at the end of the episode if you are interested in getting more involved with the community with the channel uh helping to support it all that good stuff at the end of the video but for now let's focus on the the subject here David njoku so the purpose of these videos is to see is this player worth where they're being taken on average in fantasy football drafts and currently David njoku is being taken 93rd overall or as the tight end 10 both you know simultaneously doing both of those things so what I wanted to look at here for uh David and joku is most most notably here is going to be the difference in performance while Joe Flo was quarterback compared to when Deshawn Watson was quarterback but I'm also showing the totality so deshun Watson quarterback for five games with at least healthy games with uh David and joku Joe Flaco healthy for six games with David and joku and then there's five more games that David and joku played where somebody else was uh helming the quarterback position outside of those two remember lots of quarterback issues for Cleveland last year year despite having such an amazing defense uh you know disappointment uh they they really set themselves up well had Deshawn Watson turned out like they had hoped for when they paid him but unfortunately they didn't and uh let's see how that works out for David joku starting off here we're going to look at the receptions per game now if you've seen my other videos this is part of a series which by the way Marvin Harrison Jr zir white the trio of Houston receivers all in one video and James Cook all guys who I have done videos on already so go check those out up on the page under the playlist is where you can find uh the series and the playlist is like called player highlights I believe but um it'll be something obvious it should be one of the top two playlists that have videos uh being added to it so receptions per game here with DeShaun Watson four receptions per game on average with Joe flacko he averaged 6.2 all in all 5.1 but you can see that's over one and a half times more receptions under Joe Flaco compared to under DeShaun Watson so big difference there but now we're talking about over a 200% difference when we're looking at the average yards per game while DeShaun Watson was quarterback David joku averaged 35.2 yards per game remember five game sample size not the best we would preferably look at a 16 game sample size uh or more the 55.6 yards per game number but we know that that number is being inflated highly because when we look at what the difference between deshun Watson to Joe Flaco and what he did with Joe Flaco it's insane the run that that happened with for David and joku under Joe Flaco averaged 80.5 yards per game that's that's a good receiver number much less tight end number just insane so six catches 80 yards a game on fire and to add to that look at the touchdown percentage under Joe Flaco four out of the in in during the six games that they played together four touchdowns for David and joku compare that to under deshun Watson under that five games 20% chance a one out of five one touchdown in those five games compared to the 66.7% chance over the entirety of the season six touchdowns over 16 games a 37.5% chance now we need to understand there's some changes coming to this offense right so let's just kind of quick look at that before we uh tally up our fantasy points and come to a conclusion here and there's a big change uh at the offensive coordinator spot getting rid of Alex Van Pelt OC last year brought in Ken dorsy coming over from the Buffalo Bills just talked about him a little bit not really and the uh James Cook video but mentioned his name so Ken dorsy coming over think of that offense over the past few years definitely different so Alex vel's system was exclusively run from behind Center whereas DeShaun Watson's years in Houston were exclusively run out of the shotgun and kend dorsy has utilized a very effective shotgun RPO game in his years in Buffalo so you can see that there is uh an element that we assume will be added to this Cleveland offense that should I think help Deshawn Watson to be more comfortable overall or at least in uh situations where they're they're utilizing that shotgun rbo game hopefully they'll have more shotgun outside of that as well because I just think that that's where DeShaun Watson is more comfortable so you know I say hopefully for their sake then uh in terms of just the Run percentage pass percentage within games I really don't think there's a whole lot of a difference between what kend Dori and stefansky want to do there just the major alteration is bringing in that shotgun RPO game and how much does just the shotgun in general end up getting included in this offense I think the more the better for deshun Watson I think he just sees the field better and he's able to utilize his legs a little bit better from uh that area of the field one more change the receivers they drafted another wide receiver and they traded for Jerry Judy the drafted wide receiver probably won't be a big deal Jamari thr I believe they got him in the fifth round or sixth round it might have been um I think a good get for them but it shouldn't play a whole lot however Jerry Judy is going to make a difference they have invested in this wide receiver core now over the past two years so I do anticipate a higher percentage of throws to be going to the wide receivers than the 56% that we saw last year in 2023 now it's time to add up the fantasy points with DeShaun Watson we saw two receptions uh two points coming from receptions per game about 3.5 points per the yards per game and uh 1.2 fantasy points for touchdowns on average per game that's going to bring us to 7.7 fantasy points per game on average which is the tight end 12 so as you can see that's not too terrible isn't that where he's getting taken as the tight end 12 that would have been the tight end 12 by the way per game in 2023 now when we look at the difference here with under Joe Flaco obviously it's huge uh 6.2 receptions turns into 3.1 fantasy points per game the 80 yards turns into 8 .1 fantasy points per game rounded up there uh the 6.67 touchdowns per game average about four points per game that comes to 15.2 fantasy points on average per game during that sample size that would be the tight end one probably like every year but in 2023 that would have been the tight end one by a mile one and a half times what the tight end one put up Sam lorta last year we all know he had a fantastic year uh but he was averaging more like 10 points per game so so we know that we should not be expecting that if you didn't figure that out by now I do want to include this number in here uh over the entirety of last year 10.3 fantasy points per game would be the the you know direct projection for this upcoming season if we just look at the numbers like I did tight end six on average is what that would have been in 2023 and I believe that is what he finished as as the tight end six is the ADP tight end 12 too high is our first question and ultimately I I do think that he's being taken a little bit too high kind of at Titan end 12w but it's within reason and I totally understand it and he is actually my tight end 12 so the real disagreement the real argument comes when we're talking about the overall ADP and this is why I think he's being taken too highly because I have him in the same tier as guys like Pat Fruth who's being taken 50 picks later that's about four rounds later than David and joku I also have Cole KT ranked higher than D joku my wide receiver 11 who's been taken right about the same spot there as Pat friou about 50 spots later four rounds later if I can get guys who I have similar expectations for four rounds later I'm aiming for them I'm not trying to take David and joku unless of course I'm a major believer in him and I just want him on my team amongst other tight ends he should pay off but just realize that you are leaving other value important value on the table by taking him where he is currently going in drafts that's just I would say personally a fact to some extent but make your own mind up on that uh there's David and joku let's uh get into some announcements to wrap this up Me Talking About Stuff if you are interested in getting more involved with the channel helping me out that's of course appreciated and I I give you what I can so if you're not aware very involved in NFL stuff NFL Combine NFL Draft so when that time of the year comes out you get access to all sorts of stuff you can see what I had um you know you can look at the access that I have from this previous year I give you charts for the NFL combine stuff and then uh all my player analysis is still up there which might be able to come in handy this year if a player gets an opportunity midseason later on in the season and you're wondering if you should maybe pick them off at the dra uh waiver wire you can go and check out my analysis on them uh and see if you think that that lines up to somebody who you want to take a shot on also up on there is equalized value EV which is a system that uh Works similarly to average fantasy points per game which I think is more accurate than looking at complete fantasy points per game in terms of did this guy help you each and you on a week in and week out basis however it is highly susceptible to uh variances based on a really good game for instance if they get you 60 fantasy points one week and then zero fantasy points zero fantasy points that's 20 on average they helped you lose two games they helped you win one game almost certainly but you also really got set back big time in two games whereas I'll take the player who scores 20 points over those three game spans in each game still ends up with the same average fantasy points per game 20 in each scenario for each of those two players but one of them got it much more consistently and that's what equalized value does is it smashes together a little bit uh the outputs and gives you a look at which players consistently helped you week in and week out more accurately and I've have proven time and time again on this channel that it is a more accurate number than the average fantasy points per game in terms of letting you know who's going to help you to uh who's helped you win more games I keep that sheet up to date throughout the season after like week three cuz you don't want to use it that early on it is something that you could use to help identify players that you want to get rid of on your own team or trade for for somebody else come week 6 78 and you can also use it in the offseason here to look back at last year's numbers and see who you know you forget things who performed how well they performed last year based on those EV sheets also if you're interested in getting my rankings which you can get uh all my player rankings up on the website www. thef Forge positional rankings uh for your drafts and I'll have uh draft sheets up there soon enough you can get all that stuff up on the website but if you want full PPR or standard format uh specific rankings you're going to need to put in a request for them so I have two channels a channel each on the server where you could request that and the moment it gets requested I will go out and do that and also if you're interested in doing a listeners League a 2024 fantasy football league um we can try to get that together there is a channel for that just hop on in there let me know that you're interested when we get enough people we will go or we might just end up uh getting the Crew That's meeting up uh every Thursday night when I go live we're doing mock drafts as a group uh every week it's getting bigger so you join in on that and uh maybe that will just turn that group into a fantasy league uh soon enough so thank you very very much peace out love you all and welcome to the channel I hope you like the content