10 MUST DRAFT Players (BEST PICKS in EVERY ROUND) | Fantasy Football 2024

Intro today we're going to be tasked with finding 10 mustra players one in every round rounds one through 10 according to the current Underdog ADP so without further Ado let's just hit that intro and get [Music] started the first wide receiver I have identified here in round one there's a ton of good options in round one but I really like Aman Ross St Brown he's Amon-Ra St. Brown currently coming off the board at ADP at an ADP of Six Wide Receiver five off the board and to me this is a relative no-brainer I mean the Lions really didn't do much to address their wide receiver position in fact Josh Reynolds is gone and now we're assuming Jameson Williams is going to fill that void here are the target shares last year for the Detroit Lions they're up on the board right now as you can see Aman rain Brown 30% Target share and to me there really isn't a reason why he shouldn't see a similar Target share this year um but here's a projection if he does see somewhere in the ne neighborhood of a 27 to 30% Target share somewhere in the neighborhood in 2023 scoring PPR scoring of the wide receiver 3 to5 and he's currently being drafted at the wide receiver five overall however that's not really the upside projection because that assumes that well he's going to get a similar volume maybe a little bit less volume than than he got last year so his upside Pro projection is even greater than that it's up on the board right now 173 targets uh we we can project him for more touchdowns than last year as well truth of the matter is St Brown is about as safe of a pick as you can make in the middle of the first round because he has a built-in fantasy floor with a sizable ceiling as well given the consistency of the offense if you're picking at the back end of the first round Garrett Wilson is a classic case of a wide Garrett Wilson receiver having nothing to work with in terms of quarterback play last year he's currently coming off the board at Pick 10 overall wide receiver seven off the board a season ago Wilson earned 168 targets he ranked number four in targets amongst wide receivers and finishes the wide receiver 26 and the wide receiver 32 in fantasy points per game a key driver of this was Wilson's catchable Target rate we kind of referenced it 114 of 168 targets that uh Wilson received were deemed catchable according to player profiler as a result Wilson finished number six amongst wide receivers and expected fan FY points per game Wilson this means Wilson should have scored 20.2 fantasy points per game given the volume that he had in the offense and if we look at the Target shares last year we can see that Wilson had a 30% Target share so let's fast forward to this season Aaron Rogers is on the other side of 40 I would assume he's going to be better than any Jets quarterback Wilson has ever played with and my guess is that Aaron Rogers is going to be a good facilitator at this stage in his career this is going to be a massive upgrade even if Rogers can be an average Quarterback Rogers is also going to be working with an improved offensive line the Jets have added left tackle Tyron Smith left guard John Simpson in free agency and they traded for Morgan Moses an offensive tackle and they drafted Olu fanu in the first round of the NFL draft offensive tackle this helps Rogers chances of being effective we also need to factor in two weapons two new weapons that they have in the offense the Jets added free agent wide receiver Mike Williams and they drafted Malachi Corley in round three of the 2024 NFL draft but my guess is the additions of these two players won't hurt Wilson all that much if anything it likely means Alan lazard's role in the offense is severely diminished and Conklin's role is the outed back as well it's also worth pointing out that Williams is going to be 30 years old this year and is currently recovering from an ACL injury even still to be fair when projecting Garrett Wilson let's dial back his Target share slightly to make room for those new wide receivers over the past three seasons with the Chargers uh Williams averaged a 20% Target share let's say he earns that with the Jets worst case scenario so this is what we could be looking at in terms of Target shares for for the 2024 season from the New York Jets and figuring in an increase in efficiency and projecting a similar number of Targets in the offense we can arrive at a reasonable range of outcomes for Garrett Wilson also I think it's safe to assume touchdown luck is going to swing Wilson's way with Aaron Rogers behind Center as well after Wilson ranked number nine amongst wide receivers in Red Zone targets a year ago so here's what I think a reasonable uh 2024 projection could be for Wilson 151 targets 65% catch rate 98 receptions 12 yards per reception about 1100 receiving yards and six touchdowns that would have made him the wide receiver 12 in 2023 and in this case we probably lose our ADP bet slightly we also lose this ADP bet if Rogers cannot Elevate the offense and that is very possible it's also possible that Wilson sees closer to a 30% Target share with the same level of efficiency it's also possible he scores more than six touchdowns and it's very possible his catch rate is higher than 65% so just for fun let's lay out the upside case for Garrett Wilson let's say 170 targets that's only two more than last year in this case he scores 301 fantasy points he's the wide receiver four in 2023 and he pays off at ADP and this to me is the more lik ly outcome given the fact that Garrett Wilson is by far the Jet's best receiver and in this scenario Wilson is a clear winner as a pick at the back end of the first round but I will admit there is some built-in risk when drafting Garrett Wilson this year let's move to round two let's talk Chris Olave Chris ol he's currently off the board at pick 19 wide receiver 13 Chris ol La is the clear Alpha wide receiver on a team that likes to pass the ball with their car under Center last season the Saints ranked number 10 in pass attempts number six in deep ball attempts and number 10 in team pass plays per game and they ranked number 11 in Pace of play with car under Center so here's a list of the wide receiver depth chart in New Orleans according to ourlad so we have Chris olve at the top at Perry Rasheed Shahed ecmia St Brown Cedric Wilson bub mean so as you can see it gets pretty thin pretty quick and last season alive earned 138 Targets on a 25% Target share there isn't much evidence to suggest that his Target share is going to go down on the contrary this very well could be the year olaves he's a 27 28 plus% Target share and truly becomes one of the best receivers in the league so let's project for both outcomes so projection for Chris assuming he sees about a 25% Target share that would be about 240 PPR points that would make him the wide receiver 16 in 2023 and really a repeat of what we've seen to this point from Chris olve but an upside projection could be about 156 targets 100 receptions 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns and this would make him the wide receiver nine according to 2023 scoring and as you can see going from a 25 to a 28% Target share is significant and it's very much on the table for ove heck he could even have more Targets this year he could have a sub 30% Target share we also factored in more efficiency in the upside projection and the efficiency in that upside projection is actually closer to the efficiency we saw from him last year and we also factored in one more touchdown as well the risk here is that that ove doesn't grow in the offense and doesn't seize the opportunity for more targets that the Saints seem to be presenting him with but even in that worst case scenario alve still has a floor of about 120 130 targets assuming he stays healthy for a full season it would be hard for the Saints not to use him in the offense assuming how the offense is currently constructed with not much depth at wide receiver in round three we are targeting DJ Moore his ADP is D.J. Moore currently 31 overall wide receiver 22 off the board and here's an NFL training camp update Caleb Williams looks really good and while this isn't everything it should mean that the Bears number one wide receiver gets a boost in ADP it could happen but considering the target competition I'm not sure that it will and last season DJ Moore had a career season he finishes the wide receiver six overall wide receiver nine and fantasy points per game and here's a look at the Target shares from last year and we can assume that DJ Moore is not going to see a 28.9% Target share that would be crazy we clearly have to make room for Keenan Allen Roma dun DeAndre Swift um the good news is that Mooney's targets are up for grabs and so Robert tanion even though he only got like a 3.6% Target share but uh whatever but the Bears were very bad passing the football last year the Bears uh ranked number 28 in the NFL in team pass plays per game number 19 in points per game number 20 in touchdowns per game number 21 in yards per game uh the Bears did rank number nine in place per game but opted to to run the ball 48.7% of the time which was number two in the NFL behind only the Baltimore Ravens it's safe to assume that the Bears are going to throw the ball more with Caleb Williams and from what we've seen thus far again it's only through one week of preseason football Caleb Williams looks pretty good so here's what I project the target shares to look like for the Chicago Bears in 2024 and in this scenario Mor's Target share does come down significantly from a season ago but we can project more pass in volume in the offense last season in Seattle there were 547 targets available in the Shane Waldren Le offense so let's project around I don't know 500 Targets this would be the projection um in this projection we have DJ Moore finishing as the wide receiver 23 according to 2023 scoring but this would mean that the Bears would pass significantly less than the Seahawks did last year in the Shane walren offense so I think we need to bump the targets available in the offense to at least five 530 and if we do this the upside projection for DJ Moore is what's on the screen right now 127 targets that would make him the wide receiver 15 according to 2023 scoring and I think given DJ Morris after the catchability I just think he's a really good player so I think the touchdown upside is going to be there for him as well in an offense let's face it that could be this year's version of the 2023 Houston Texans if that happens DJ Moore is going to return value at his current ADP let's let's go to round four and let's talk a little Travis etn he's currently coming off the board at pick 43 rb1 according to Underdog ADP and etn Travis Etienne proved he could be the new age version of a bcow running back in 2023 he ranked number six in Opportunity share number four in carries number seven in targets amongst running backs while ranking number six amongst running backs in snapshare as a result he finishes the rb3 overall and the rb7 in fantasy points per game and the Jaguars didn't add a significant running back to take touches away from him although there are rumors that they want to decrease etn volume even if this is true etn still going to see a significant volume in an offense that likes to push the pace as I've been saying in just about every video I've made this year Jacksonville ranked number two in Pace of play last year number six in team pass plays per game that's perfect for a running back like etn who saw a 12.1% Target share out of the back field which ranked number 12 amongst qualified running backs so let's look at a floor projection for Travis etn let's say his volume is dialed back let's say uh tank bsby does take over a fair share of the running back duties which I highly doubt to be honest with you that would make him the RB 12 in 2023 he's currently coming off the board at rb11 so when you're projecting Travis etn and when you're fading Travis etn at cost in round four you're assuming that he's going to have this production come down because he's going to have less opportunity and I just don't know if that that's the case let's jump to round five and we're actually you know you you might be able to wait a little bit on this pick but I really like Chris Godwin Chris Godwin he's currently being drafted at the very beginning of round six so you might have to reach into round five to get him but I really like Chris Godwin the simple case for him is touchdown regression last season Mike Evans hauled in 13 touchdowns in 2023 and finishes a wide receiver seven overall wide receiver 10 and fantasy points per game Godwin scored just two receiving touchdowns despite earning just four fewer targets than Evans in 2023 and as a result Godwin had his worst finish in fantasy points per game since 2018 as he finishes the number 34 wide receiver in fantasy points per game he finished number 36 in 2018 and he finished number 28 overall amongst wide receivers and fantasy scoring another reason for Godwin's lack of fantasy scoring despite ranking number 18 amongst wide receivers and targets was his lack of slot snaps in 2023 Goblin ranked number 26 amongst wide receivers in slot snaps during the previous two seasons Goblin ranked number eight in 2021 in slot snaps with 464 and number four in slot snaps in 2022 with 489 and the rumor is that new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen envisions Goblin playing more in the slot if this is true then we should expect to see Godwin finish closer to wide receiver 10 in fantasy points per game he's finished wide receiver 15 uh in 2022 and wide receiver seven and fantasy points per game in 2021 respectively so we should see see him finish closer to that number than what he finished uh than where he finished last year and with a similar role in the offense and even better use usage out of the slot we should be able to reasonably project a similar workload to last season given the quarterback is the same and many of the pieces of the Buccaneers offense are the same as well Additionally the Buccaneers ranked number seven in pass attempts number one in deep ball attempts number 13 in Pace a play with Baker Mayfield under Center therefore it's not Unthinkable to project that Mayfield is top 10 pass attempts once again but to be safe let's project him to be about middle of the pack in pass attempts and project a 22% Target share in this offense with a more efficient role in the slot baked in so this is the floor projection I have up right now and as you can see Godwin in this scenario finishes at the wide receiver 36 in 2022 in fantasy points uh currently he's being drafted at wide receiver 37 so if that happens then he's basically returning value dead even at his ADP but what about the upside for Chris Godwin the upside projection is 126 targets that would put him at wide receiver 26 and 2023 and even in this upside projection Godwin could easily have more touchdowns and more Targets in this offense and if he does Godwin has the upside to be a top 15 wide receiver in round six we have Deontay Johnson currently coming off the board at pick Diontae Johnson 67 wide receiver 39 some people might be scared off from drafting the number one Target on the Carolina Panthers but I am not one of them yes last season was rough for Bryce young and young is more undersized than we might like him to be at the quarterback position but the Panthers did a lot to help him out this offseason they added offensive lineman they added pass catchers in the draft and from 2020 to 2022 Deontay Johnson averaged 153 targets with the Pittsburgh Steelers and in that time span he finished no lower than wide receiver 39 in fantasy points per game and this was because Johnson caught zero touchdowns in 2022 in fact over the past two seasons Johnson has been the wide receiver 39 in fantasy points per game so why is he being drafted at the wide receiver 39 this season why is that such a value if he's finished that the last two seasons well last season the Carolina Panthers leading Target earner was Adam thielen and that's likely not going to happen again in 2024 with the addition of Johnson and I believe the Panthers knew they need to Define Bryce young a legitimate topend wide receiver who can command targets and outside of theland and son the Panthers don't have a ton of depth at wide receivers sure they drafted davier Legette but he's going to be a rookie uh and outside of him they have Terrace Marshall Jonathan Mingo and air Smith marett Panthers also don't have a receiving threat at tight end sure they have jatavian Sanders but he was around four pick in the NFL draft this year additionally Bryce young ranked number 12 in pass attempts despite missing a game he was on Pace to finish top 10 in pass attempts in 2023 if he would have played a full season and we know know this team is not going to be very good defensively yet again in 2024 so this means the Panthers are going to be in negative gam script situations they're going to be throwing the ball a lot and I would guess that they're going to be top 10 in pass attempts with Bryce young under Center so let's project Deontay Johnson this season um let's give him 131 targets 78 receptions 11 yards per receptions 858 receiving yards and five touchdowns so in this case he would have finished as the wide receiver 35 in 2023 but I think there could be more meat on the bone here so let's give him an upside projection of 145 Target that would make him the wide receiver 27 in PPR points in 2023 and as you can see there is massive upside to drafting Johnson because of the massive role he could have in an offense that's going to be much improved this is a classic case of fantasy Gamers not wanting pieces of the Panthers offense because they don't want players on bad teams but if you have the courage to draft players on bad offenses you can find some real value in fantasy drafts and to be fair I'm not sure this is going to be a terrible offense this year either I think it could be just fine maybe middle of the pack and like I said they're gonna throw the ball a lot because they're G to be down uh in a lot of games this season in round seven we're going to take our tight end and that's going to be Evan Ingram he's Evan Engram currently coming off the board at pick 75 tight end eight overall and I'm not really sure what's going on here because Evan Ingram is coming off a career season he finishes the tight end 20 overall tight end four in fantasy points per game yet his ADP hasn't gone up to be amongst the top five tight ends instead he's hovering hovering around you know tight end eight tight end nine the Jaguars did make some significant changes to their offense gone is Calvin Ridley hello Gabriel Davis Brian Thomas Jr and Brian Thomas Jr is looking really good in training camp so he could be a legitimate weapon for this team um but those two wide receivers on the outside I I still believe are going to help out Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram over the middle and like we mentioned when we talk talked about Travis etn the Jaguars ranked number six and pass play per game last season and number two in Pace of play that is music or that should be music to your ears if you play in a fantasy football league therefore there should be plenty of targets available within this offense however it is very likely that Ingram's Target share does come down but even if that does happen the upside case for Ingram is still very high if we project the same amount of Targets in the offense as there were last season which is very likely with a slightly reduced Target share he could have a projection something like this and he scores somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 to 226 uh fantasy points in a PPR League that would put him at the tight end three-6 in 2023 however it's very possible that Ingram has more touchdown luck in 2024 he could absolutely finish as the tight end one overall and he's currently being drafted at the tight end eight he is my favorite tight end Target in all of Fant F football he is a steal at his current ADP in round eight we are targeting another Chicago Bear that's DeAndre Swift he's currently coming off D'Andre Swift the board at pick 91 rb25 and training camp update uh like I said earlier Caleb Williams looks really good and he's going to be a tactical Scrambler which means he's going to dump the ball off to the running back unlike Jaylen Herz did last year because last season DeAndre Swift although he played in 16 games had the worst statistical season from a fantasy football perspective he ranked as the rb20 overall rb24 in fantasy points per game and he and he recorded career lows and receptions receiving yards and total touchdowns and this is likely because of Jaylen Herz Jaylen Herz likes to run the football they run the tush push when they get inside the five yard line when they get inside the two they're not handing the ball off to the running back and I would seriously doubt the bears run the tush push as much as the Eagles did last year now Swift moves to another good off offense albe it it's crowded I understand in Chicago but how do we know that Swift's 2024 season will be better than his 2023 season for starters it's very clear that Swift is Chicago's guy the comments coming out of Bears training camp are very bullish regarding DeAndre Swift I mean sure Roshan Johnson is there KH khil Herbert's there but these are day three running backs that don't possess the upside that Swift brings as a playmaker and as a pass catcher however the argument against Swift is most certainly going to be a like I said this offense is crowded and B what if Caleb Williams has a bad year in year one I'll admit it's hard to project a rookie quarterback going forward even though he did look great in training camp or looks great in the preseason so far but I'm not worried as much about Caleb Williams this is because he's Ultra talented and he's entering a situation with an unbelievable Supporting Cast the Bears also have an under the radar offensive line that they have steadily added to so let's give him 180 carries 4.6 yards per carry that would be 800 28 yards uh let's give him 50 receptions for 360 yards and six touchdowns that would put him at 204 fantasy points that would be the rb1 18 last season in 2023 so even with a modest projection that could include a lot more volume in the passing game Swift clears his ADP by about eight spots and there's also a chance that this offense is good and scores more than we think it's really looking like this offense is going to be better than most people think Swift has a rare combination of a floor from a usage standpoint with some upside as well also injury shouldn't be a huge concern because Swift has only missed an average of two games per season due to illness or injury in round nine we're going to Target our quarterback and that's going to be Jordan love ADP of 97 quarterback Jordan Love 10 off the board and this is simple I think Jordan love is one of the cheaper quarterbacks out there with top three top five upside at the position it took Jordan love a while to get going last year but once he did he proved he can be an elite fantasy quarterback week 11 stands out as the date when love really started to play well from week 11 to week 17 love finishes a top 12 quarterback five times in seven games and this included a quarterback two performance overall against Minnesota in week 17 and it makes sense that it would take love a little time to figure out the offense and to get comfortable with the system if love would have kept up the same Pace from week 11 through 17 for a full 17 Game season love would have finished with 366.50 Shan runan on the offensive line but bakari was often injured and Shawn Ryan was rotating with ran anyway and projects to take his spot as a as the starter the offensive line is ranked number 14 according to PFF and should be good enough to protect love throughout the season another year in this offense could see love progress even further as a passer and I trust the Packers to develop love and make him even better this year than he was last year so round 10 is tricky we're going to dip a little bit into the ADP pool because there really wasn't a round 10 Target that I absolutely loved but let's dip into the sleeper pool and let's go outside of round 10 and let's target Rico dle there Rico Dowdle isn't really a question of who the better running back is in Dallas and training camp has kind of proved that D has the inside track to be the rb1 in Dallas dowle ranked number 34 in true yards per carry last year number 23 in yards per Touch number 39 in Breakaway run rate and number nine and yards created per touch and he beat Ezekiel Elliott in every single metric uh last year that you care that we care about when it comes to running backs uh the good news is currently D still being treated as the rb2 in the in the offense but that's probably not going to happen for long and it could change come your draft but I still like d as the number one running back in this offense a bet on Ezekiel Elliott at this stage is a bet on Nostalgia which I suppose the Cowboys could absolutely let him fall into the end zone about 15 times but like I said D is looking like the starting running back right now now last season Dallas ranked number two in team plays per game with 67.3 and number one in Red Zone attempts and they H also have to replace their top running back and Tony Pard Pard accounted for 252 carries 67 targets out of the backfield and this Dallas offense is going to be good yet again and D will have the opportunity to prove that he is a better running back at this stage of his career than zekiel Elliott and I believe he absolutely is and he's a smash pick in round 10 or 11 in your f fantasy drafts thank you so much for watching don't forget to click the like button and subscribe to the channel and until next time be good everybody and we will see you later [Music]