NFL props, futures analyzed by Jay Croucher, Drew Dinsick | Rotoworld Draft Marathon | Bet the Edge

all right welcome to bet the edge I'm Jay Croucher here with Drew dini as always we are doing uh all NFL props today season long prop markets we're going to look at passing receiving and rushing yard props individual ones season leaders all of that uh so let's get stuck straight into it start with the quarterbacks uh most passing yards Drew Patrick Mahomes is the favorite as he is for many things he is plus 500 CJ 6 to1 Dak Prescott plus 750 Jared gof plus 750 burrow 8 to1 Tua plus 850 and then there's a bit of a drop off is there anyone you like in this market yeah so this was a a fun exercise because it's a little outside of my expertise actually it's a lot outside my expertise for being honest but that's fun because challenging yourself to try to come up with like well what is the right handicap here was was part of the problem and coming up with projections was also a lot of it was kind of an interesting process because um when it comes to passing yards there's two factors and you look through historical data and it'll bear this out like you need to be an elite quarterback you need to or you should have at least uh you know some uh elite weapons and you typically also need one other thing which is a a me defense because passing yardage could come in two ways one is successful offense and the other is comeback mode uh and you know really like I would prioritize keying on some of the uh the guys who are Elite in this market who have defenses that we have questions about um and that even you know begets another wrinkle here so this is a superlative a award this is not like we're laying even you know we're not laying minus one0 on a guy like Joe burrow to go over his passing yards I would think that is a Bad Bet because of the risk of Joe Bro getting injured but in a superlative market like this where you're getting an 8 to1 price I project burrow as the number one passing yardage guy in this entire uh field as we come through okay well what am I expecting out of the Bengals offense and what am I expecting out of the Bengals defense how often are they going to be in comeback mode how difficult is their schedule of opponents all of it kind of comes together for me and says burrow should be the top of the board here uh and then the other guys that are in the mix are Matt Stafford for me uh and then uh kind of further down in interestingly enough uh Jaylen Herz and uh and then you know Trevor Lawrence and so I think this is a little bit of a weak a soft Market um I know that you know there's and we'll get to Pat Mahomes in a bit I'm as you know as you know looking down the what's next I have a strong inclination to make a case for Pat Mahomes there but um the chief's defense is good and the Chiefs are gonna have there and their schedule is soft uh they're going to have a relatively straightforward time I think winning games this year the idea of Pat Mahomes being put into action in the second half of games as opposed to sort of the more quintessential Andy Reid just sort of sitting on the Playbook and second half and just running out the clock like I would tack much more towards the ladder and I think uh you know if you made me say well what's your favorite blind second half bet of the season it's pretty clearly Chiefs second half unders and I think uh you know Mahomes in general is going to be a little bit uh handicapped in terms of being able to hit the top of the board in the passing yardage Market because of how good the team is overall and how weak the schedule is so uh for me I'm a bet against the top um strad similarly like I I'm very high on Stroud in so many ways but uh you know expecting him to be the passing yardage leader um considering that that defense is pretty looking pretty stout as well and they're you know I'm just not sure what the path to him taking such a huge leap would be Prescott makes no sense to me just because the lack of elite weapons uh Goff doesn't make a ton of sense to me even though I know he is indoors and they do have U you know a pretty you know impressive system uh I would still look at well what who's the wide receiver three and four like I know probably your third your second most Target getter share is going to be uh you know to the likes of leaport there's going to be a lot of Leaning into targeting the running backs but um still kind of a lack of depth there in terms of weapons to help kind of get the passing yardage up um and then uh then we get to burrow at 8 to1 who I think is probably the play of this Market as again I would project him to be uh your number one passing yardage leader uh just based on sort of the rubric I came up with which takes into account how good is your defense How likely are you going to be uh you know pressed into action laid into games and just how how difficult is your schedule in terms of opposing pass opposing passing defenses and um burrow checks every box so I think a a healthy 17 game uh schedule from burrow and and I think he takes this one yeah I think the knock against B would be just that he plays outdoors in a cold weather City and he goes up against AFC North defenses I think one of the Kee for this Market is just understanding like who has won in the past like jamus Winston won when he was in Tampa Bay uh we've had other guys like DeShawn Watson on a bad Texans team he won it Herbert on a me Chargers team had 5K passing yards um and finished second to Brady that year so this is why like right now you know Josh Allen um who's not really among the favorites I think he's priced appropriately hit 20 to1 like it's just so hard when you're just going to lose some games to weather um throughout the season and so the first thing I look for are guys uh who do play in domes and ideally I think you want a team that is hovering around 500 like a s to 10 win type of Team um that you have enough throw scripts so I agree with Mahomes uh I think that between playing Outdoors between the defense being awesome between their you know very likely being you know four five games or whatever where he just isn't really asked to throw um late in the game maybe even more than that um and also I think that with PCO who kind of emerged even more at the in the back half of the season so I don't love Mahomes at 5 to one though certainly he could win um what was most surprising to me looking through all of this is that do you know who uh so Sam Hal led the NFL in passing attempts last year because they were always losing and just dropping back a million times second in the NFL in past attempts it's very surprising to me was Jared gof because that team was winning a lot of games they won 12 games and also the idea of the lions that at least I have in my head is that you know it's built around the offensive line and the Run game but gof just drops back and they just throw a ton and they run their offense pretty quickly um and so that makes him interesting in that sense also G only has to go Outdoors three times all season so he won't lose that many games um to just not being able to accumulate stats in the weather Tua won this last year narrowly um leading the league in passing yards just think that he is so dependent on Tyreek um and the Deep balls to Tyreek and Tyreek the past two years has had like 1,800 and then I think 1710 receiving yards the year prior and now he's projected in the market for like 1350 um and yeah W canat back some of that but at the same time the fact that also T has to close the season at Cleveland at New York which is about as bad as you could possibly ask for in terms of accumulating passing yards um um so of the longer shots the guys who stand out to me uh one Brock pie is 25 to1 pie last season in terms of yards per game he was only six yards off the leader who was CJ strad um and his season long stats don't look as gy because he sat the final week I just think that just naturally the 49ers will regress a little bit and you don't expect you don't project them as a 12 13 win team just off the bat um and mff fre um should be just on average less healthy um than he was last season so looks like iuk is going to come back I think that they're going to have you know plenty of weapons and P might just need to throw more and they would be the best bet I think to have the best offense in football and he's 25 to one um and then the other one was Stafford who you mentioned um he is 12 to one not a ton of meat on the bone there but I just think that between playing in the dome between the passing volume that he gets in that offense between having a healthier Cooper Cup who we're going to talk about a bit later um and puka AA um I think it's all set up and also like they fit the mold like the Rams project as a seven to 10 win time yeah no that check yeah big big old question marks about their defense and honestly like that I think that's why my why I disagree a little bit with sort of standard fantasy rankings with a lot of this stuff is if I'm you know trying to kind of correctly price how much are you going to you know how many attempts are you going to have to have in the fourth quarter of these games like you're pointing about Brock pie I think is fair and that I look at their schedule and the idea that they're going to be able to rest week seven we week 18 this year I don't know that I fully agree with I think they're going to be fighting to the death um and so ultimately that that makes total sense for me by the way Brock py comes in F fifth uh in terms of projections and I do have questions about the Niners defense this year so um yeah that's a that's a fun one and that's a big price so I dig that one but uh yeah for me the passing the there's just the consistent passing rate uh OV expectation for Zack Taylor's offense is enough for me to think bro should be the number one with the bullet in this market yep he certainly could do it all right let's uh let's go to the over runds for passing yards um is there any one that jumps out to you in particular well I think in this market again kind of going back to my conversation about bro like I would almost certainly be only looking at players who I think have a tenuous hold on starting job or have a tenuous hold on their health and reliability of starting 17 games uh this handicapping season long over unders in my opinion is almost certainly an exercise in finding unders where there is some long tail that is not correctly captured um you look at a player like Daniel Jones Daniel Jones is under his over under is 2675 plus 100 to the under okay let's talk through this if he starts 17 games is he going to make that total almost certainly is he going to start 17 games well it is going to take a very thin path of the Giants being better than expected and him being kind of given the opportunity to start late in this season when you know if if if kind of the market is correct and the Giants are poor and this team is a on Pace for five six wins then the you know the likelihood that they pull Jones towards the end of the season for uh you know just for the the same exact thing that happened with Russell Wilson last year where they know that they're not going forward with him next year they're not interested in taking um you know a big uh injury hit uh if he is out there and gets hurt and oh by the way he is also still you know recovering from injury so he is an injury red flag for me too so uh a guy like Jones under absolutely stands out pretty clearly um I'm gonna highlight will Levis under as well because of his seeming like he seems inclined to find you know fed uh physicality at the quarterback position to the degree that I would expect him to miss several games pretty much every year that he is the Bonafide starter um and then uh you know we mentioned Stafford and burrow who I think both have a realistic chance to hit the top of the board in terms of passing yard leaded you know leaders but um these numbers are so gudy that only one you know one or or two games missed um you know would be enough to to Really uh see them have a tough time getting to that that number so um you know I think ultimately those those are kind of my general Thoughts with the numbers that we have up here but um you know I look at a number of players who are kind of being lined right now as unlikely to have a job for 17 starts and I would start there and then kind of weave in the injury uncertainty on top of that yep I think that's fair uh Anthony Richardson under 3250 A2 also stands out to a lesser extent Aaron roders at even money 3675 A2 also stands out a little bit my favorite one though is actually an over um and that's uh Bryce young is set at 3200 and a half passing yards and I get that he was horrific last year but I just don't think that a full-time starting quarterback whose job is under no pressure whatsoever who doesn't play you know in you know super cold they're expecting like you know Buffalo type um rainstorms and everything constantly and who plays in a division where he gets to go to a dome um in Atlanta when he plays on the road there he gets to go to a dome um also in New Orleans and then you know Tampa not atrocious weather either by any stretch so I just think that with Bryce young if he plays 17 games he needs to average like 189 passing yards a game to go over um and so I think that I think Young is a little bit too low just as a as a starting NFL quarterback under no job threat yeah I'm not going to stop you I'm projecting 3460 for a young this year so nice little buffer there yep okay uh most passing touchdowns anyone leap out to yeah Patrick Mahomes we could stop there he's he's this is the quintessential kind of award where he should be much shorter than you know this the top of the board uh getting the passing yards touchdowns is is more about um your you know your usage in the Red Zone with your arm uh and you know he specifically elects to try to find the high the the the the low likelihood wild plays with his arm in the Red Zone rather than take the uh you know take the opportunity to try to score with his legs and for those reasons like his passing touchdowns are inflated year on year um and he's got now you know much much uh you know I think at least a much more um dangerous set of weapons to work with heading into this season he's got a healthy Travis Kelce I I cannot believe that we are this far into previews and this is the first time we're talking about this but Travis Kelce was absolutely nuked last year there were questions about when are we going to see him is he G to be okay like he had the uh uh you know the hyper extension to the knee and just they they put him on ice and people are assuming that that well that's they going to be their plan this year and I'm like well they put him on ice because he was hurt and they needed him to be available later in the season they needed to him get well and now he's fine and I you know I I really kind of think that the weapons that exist for Kansas City are going to be enough that he runs away with passing touchdown leader yep I don't mind that he's plus 500 uh he finished six clear of the league uh in 2022 and I suspect that this season is going to resemble that year uh much more than last year um when he had nothing to work with all right the RO World Fantasy Football Draft guide is now available exclusively through a new partnership with Matthew Barry's Fantasy Life get a Fantasy Life Plus subscription and receive the root World draft guide plus fantasy DFS and betting tools to help you dominate all season long use promo code Roto 10 for 10% off go to Fantasy life.com rotor to learn more all right receiving Yarns uh receiving title Tyreek Hill plus 500 who won last year narrowly edging CD lamb at plus 600 this year Justin Jefferson previous winner a couple years ago 7 to one Jamal Chase 8 to one and then we have AJ Brown am monra St Brown pukur Garrett Wilson um who jumps out to you here Garrett Wilson the uh I got a hat to my friend Conor Allen because I was specifically picking his brain on this yesterday and um yeah I mean Garett Wilson is sort of the guy that is in the mix among the the top white outs who uh who I kind of hold singular in terms terms of his receiving yardage ceiling um because of the lack of a secondary threat and I think ultimately the um the lessons I've learned watching Aaron Rogers for on 15 years now is he funnels to the best wide receiver if that guy is winning oneon-one and we've seen a lot of evidence that Garrett Wilson can do that and I think that as we go through this season you know Wilson having just an absolutely banana land Target share and output from a yardage standpoint is a reasonable expectation so um I'm into Wilson I think 15 to1 is a fair play if you shop around there's some even bigger numbers on him that I was kind of surprised about I think he should be in that top here with top tier with h the likes of the CD lambs of the world I think the rest of the top of the board is kind of bananas also um Chase and lamb have have holding out and holding in uh scare me in terms of soft tissue injury early in the season that derails them from getting their full compliment of expectation uh Tyreek Hill uh is already hurt and is a huge huge injury risk a little later we get into the season which has me uh cool on him uh AJ Brown and uh and Devonte Smith uh kind of hurting each other in terms of opportunities is enough for me to kind of put a line through both of those guys um and you know that that kind of leaves me with the Jeffersons of the world the Aman rasi and Browns of the world and because those guys are so much shorter than Wilson and price I'm just going to lean straight into Wilson yep no I don't mind Wilson last year he had 30% of the Jet's total targets I think that can actually possibly even go up given how many of Bree how many receptions and targets Bree Hall got just in plays where Tim Bell or strer or Zack Wilson or whatever who was drawing dead and just had to dump it off um the o line is better which should help with that and not having to dump off to the running back so frequently um Garett Wilson last year had a 56% catch rate to give you an idea of how bad that is Cooper Cup's career catch rate is 73% um so 56% is abominably bad uh and I'm not going to pin that on Wilson gonna pin that on his quarterback so I think the other good thing about Wilson too is that even if Rogers does Miss a couple of games like Tyrod Taylor would be the best quarterback that Garrett Wilson has ever played with um if we're excluding Rogers I think back as well to just how well Wilson or how good Wilson looked playing with Mike White two years ago I like it's Mike White like but that's just like Mike Mike White might have delivered the best stretch of quarterback play that Garrett Wilson has had in his entire career so don't mind that Wilson has um a lot of upside um at the top of the board like Tyreek he's already injured he's missing practice at the moment he gets hurt constantly we talked about the back end of that dolphin schedule stretch when he gets cold is brutal uh you mentioned the contractual issues with lamb and Chase I'd be the same as you if I was backing someone at the top of the board it would be Jefferson or out price my favorite of the favorites would be a monr St Brown at 10 to one just because he also we don't really think of it the same way as Garrett Wilson but he is also kind of unopposed in terms of Target share at least among wide receivers Le Porter is going to cut into that um a little bit but um yeah I like the Garrett Wilson play all right notable over unders for receiving yardage um what's your favorite one yeah uh this is much tougher because uh you're kind of looking for um I guess I guess you know and maybe maybe this is a little bit um uh kind of reductive but the kind of example I would use from last year of like where there was a true bust in this market would have been the Branded iuk price right you had signal from the end of the previous season that Brock pie and Brandon iuk were on the page those guys were vibing and they did not adjust his price up for the fact that they you had kind of like a a pretty clear and obvious wide receiver quarterback relationship that was just going to help influence the guy's usage uh and the best example I can kind of give this year as you know we have had a lot of people sort of speculating well who's going to be the wide receiver one in Houston I got news for you guys it's gonna be Nico Collins you know why I know that because Nico Collins and CJ strad are hand and glove those guys are on the same page in every possible respect and honestly the addition of of of Diggs uh onto that wide receiver cord the health of tank Dell the the on you know on field availability of Dalton Schultz like all of these things to me just create more space and more opportunity for Nico Collins and so I think Collins is going to make his number and I think it's going to be pretty cleanly over um I played that one and then uh I took a swing on um actually this was hat tip to friends in the industry it's not what you know it's who you know sometimes especially when it comes to Fantasy projections when that's not what you do uh but Tampa Bay tray tipped us off to uh um the potential wide receiver one roll opportunities for uh Brian Thomas Jr and uh he has delivered on the expectations in space and I have played his season long receiving yards over which seems comically low like it seems like that could be home by week six uh so those are the two that uh I'm the most kind of into and you know it's it's about volume opportunity and chemistry with the wide with the quarterback when you're the wide receiver because you're at their disposal um and those are the two that I think are the positive ones to look at and I don't really have many negative ones that I'm really I'm not looking to bet into injuries for wide receivers because again like even if Chase starts slow even if he has you know some some injuries earlier in the season like doesn't we know he's capable of ripping off 200 yard games uh and if those uh you know kind of help backfill some time missed early in the season then you're you're still going to be sweating that one till The Bitter End so uh not playing many unders in the receiving yard Market but I do like Collins and I do like uh Brian Thomas Jr yeah I think it's it's like important to point out that just I think the natural kind of human inclination is when you look at these numbers they just all seem low because you know Tyreek Hill's had 1700 plus yards the past two years and he's set at you know 1375 like the highest receiving yard prop is set at like 1250 A2 whereas it is you know a coin flip that someone is going to get 1,700 plus receiving yards and the reason why that it looks low is just that I think the the human brain just doesn't naturally bake in injury risk until you think about it in a bit more depth but um unders have historically printed on these markets where I think they win at like 70% if you're just blind Bing Market of that I think inclination to bet overs but um my favorite bets on the board are a few unders where um Christian Watson 725 and a half obviously he has a massive injury risk he gets hurt all the time he has these chronic hamstring issues and even that aside I think there's a a reasonable chance that Christian Watson is wide receiver four on his own team I think there is a very sound chance that Jaden Reed tavan Wicks and Romeo dobs are all above Watson um in the pecking order um Mike Williams under seven and a 700 a half receiving yards is the distant distant number two he's coming off injury as we know it's going to be Garrett Wilson's passing attack um as we talked about um and then in terms of a couple overs uh Jake Ferguson 650 a half that's too low for mine just playing in the dome playing with Dak establish more with Dak as the season went on and then my favorite one of all and I think the guy that I'm highest on relative to all expectations um both in fantasy and just in terms of what I think real life output would be I'm extremely high on Cooper Cup this year where he's set at 975 and a half he set almost 2,000 yards sorry 2,000 he said almost 200 yards lower than puka AA Cup last year when he was on the field with puker still had a 27% Target share the two years before that he was 32% and 31% uh and he got that 27% Target share when he wasn't right and McVey has talked about this in the offseason that the cup he missed five games last year there was another game where he's limping through and just completely useless and just played barely any snaps so he basically played 11 games last year McVey talked about how even when he was out there he wasn't healthy whatsoever he was just gutting it out all the reports out of rams Camp have been that cup is like he is back he is 100% healthy and that he has been the wide receiver one over nura so I think there's a very good chance just odds agnostic that cup has the better season than Thea 2021 and 2022 per game Cooper cup was the number one wide receiver in fantasy and now he's going like wide receiver 24 and for betting purposes that I think that most matters in terms of being translatable to some of these props where I just think the cup cup is being written off because of his age because he's 31 whereas no one is riding off Tyreek Hill who is n months younger than Cooper cup and also gets injured all the time like there's just a massive disconnect waiting off Tyreek Hill yeah well I wouldn't want to get involved with Tyreek because of um just I mean he set 400 yards higher than Cooper cup um and I think there's worlds where you know obviously Tyreek is the favorites have a better season than Cooper cup but I don't think it's outrageous that if cup just gets the workload and targets that nura got last year in the offense when AA got 30% um of the overall Targets on the Rams I think there's a very reasonable chance that cup can bump up from 27% back to 30% which is still below what he was the past couple years and then if you take his um his career catch rate and his yards per catch of the past few years they put him at 1500 receiving yards with full health now that's unlikely because you know it's just not likely that someone ever gets 1500 yards um but I think that is within the what run with outcomes so I'm very high on I have pukan as an injury red flag as well so I'm fully he's already hurt yeah if I and they don't anything think anywhere really offers this Market but um if you can just bet with a friend or someone who's not a friend and you want to take their money I'd be trying to back like I don't know maybe you could get like plus 200 plus 250 that Cooper cup has more receiving yards than puka AA this year because I think that's very much in play um before we move on to running backs most receiving Downs any lean here AJ Brown is the favorite yeah this one feels like a very crowded Market um it ends up being a little bit of luck I feel like uh every year as far as who kind of lands at the top of the board um I don't have a strong Vibe at all that there is a a bet to be made here um but uh yeah I think uh ultimately I I would uh I would not be taking a price shorter than 20 to1 y uh I think if look if I had to make a bet um and nothing is super appeeling um right now but Devonte Adams two years ago with Derek car as his quarterback in Vegas he led um this market and then last year he was second in the NFL in targets like he just um he just gets peppered with targets and he's 20 to one um and longer than guys like um puka nura uh Christian Watson is that right um but Devon Adams 20 to1 um if I was to have um yeah a little dabble a Speculator um that would probably be my play but think can perhaps wait to play this one also the other thing too is that there is just a ton of Randomness in this market is not very predictable um there's a ton of Randomness in the other ones too but yards are much more projectable than touchdowns given just the small sample you're dealing with you remember you don't remember 2019 when Kenny G won this one you really my boy Kenny G yeah you had a great year 2019 for Detroit with 11 receiving touchdowns which was enough to win actually own a Kenny G Giants Jersey uh which was bought for ironic purposes and because it was the cheapest Giants SP jersey available um purchased for like $18. 76 or something um but yeah hasn't got a lot of run um the gay Giants Jersey all right uh fantasy football season just got better $1 million better create or join a private Yahoo fantasy league and enter the $1 million NBC sweep Stakes plus earn extra entries to win when players on your fantasy roster score a touchdown during an opening weekend game on NBC or peacock download the redesigned Yahoo fantasy app or go to nbcsports.com 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requirements rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 Days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel don't forget if you haven't signed up for bet MGM yet use bonus code bet Edge and get your $1,500 first bet offer today okay let's close out with rushing yard props rushing title leader uh Christian mcaffry is plus 300 to go back to back uh he won this going away uh last year the 2021 winner much to my delight I didn't actually bet on him to win the rushing title only bet offensive player of the year which he lost Jonathan Taylor plus 400 saquon Barkley which I don't like at plus 500 and then you have Breece Hall bejan Robinson Derek Henry uh who do you like in this market uh this one again is also quite tough um but I will say that uh you know using fantasy projections as your principal guiding um you know kind of metric here makes the most sense there are people that are putting a lot of money to work in the best ball space uh who are trying to do as careful a job of projecting usage at the running back position because that is what drives those markets and I think leaning into that is is somewhat important obviously the the prices reflect the top of the board fairly realistically um uh but as you kind of drift down the board a little bit I I AG I agree with you that like some of the second tier guys there don't necessarily belong in the mix Barkley at 5 to1 looks like a poison price Henry at 10 to1 looks like a poison price to me Karen Williams at 12 to1 looks like a poison price I've heard enough now about how they intend to utilize him and maybe even save him towards the end of the season uh to expect that him being sort of the Bell cow for 17 weeks is is low likelihood um and uh and then kind of that middle tier of guys Jacobs Pacho etan aan uh chub surely chub with his questions about availability all look like crosses off to me um and I think this is probably coming from one of the four at the top between mcaffrey Taylor um Hall and and Robinson I think Robinson's price of 10 to1 would be where I would lean I really do like the offensive line uh in Atlanta and I think if there's anything we've heard about Atlanta Camp which has been surprisingly little uh it has been sort of the beat rep reporters insistence that bejan Robinson is going to be a a heavily utilized player this year for them as opposed to what we saw in terms of usage from under the artsmith system last year so that's enough for me to kind of put him exactly in the mix price-wise with the likes of Taylor and Hall and you know little behind maccaffrey and you're getting 10 to one so I think it's bejan Robinson for me but uh I would say very very low confidence playing into this Market yeah a lot of variance in this one just in terms of attrition Josh Jacobs won two years ago he's like 50 to one to start the season uh I think and he ends up winning fairly comfortably um I do think there are worlds where Jacobs could potentially win again just because he's on I think effectively like a one-year contract and there's no one really in the Green Bay backfield to take carries away from him the issue was that he was just really bad last year uh and he's dealt with a lot of injuries so maybe that wears him down but he there are worlds where Josh Jacobs gets 290 300 carries but I'm with you my favorite bet in this market would be bejan at 10 to one and the reason is is one I think there are just some institutional factors with the Falcons where Raheem Morris has talked about this openly that basically the last guy got fired in blar because he didn't use bejan who they spent a top 10 pick on as a by all accounts a generational running back in the vein of saquon Barkley and Adrien Peterson and last year bejan I think goes a little bit under the radar that like I think thought of beon had this like disaster season he was still like 1500 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns on a really me seven 10 team that had Desmond Ritter and Taylor hinei alternating at quarterback so I think the way to think about this Market is or at least as it pertains to bejan is that last year Falcon running backs had 450 carries um let's just bump that up to 475 U when you bake in that they're likely going to be um in run scripts a little bit more given that they're projected as a 10- win team and they won seven last year let's say Bean gets 60% of the carries um where I think that is maybe that's slightly up maybe it's more like you set the over under like 554 with aler and bean gets all the passing work but I think 60% is very reasonable um as a possibility for bean that would give him with health 285 carries on the season and I think he is a five yards per carry type of talent um and that would get him to 1425 rushing yards which would have had him like neck and neck with mcaffrey last year and I think like 300 yards clear of everyone else I think that is very much in play I think that between the generational Talent between the fact that they have this insanely easy schedule where it is very possible the Falcons who I don't think either of us are super super high on but they're very competent a lot of good players and there is a chance that after week three they are favored in every single game the rest of the season like that is on the cards that's how easy their schedule is um being so weighted to the NFC South so I just think that between game script between talents the the question mark with beon and the reason why he's not one of the four favorites in the market is just there are questions about usage but based on the institutional factors I think that bean is a very good chance to get 60% of the carries yeah we're on the same page there and I you kind of agree this is sort of a topheavy market right yeah there's no long shot that you think realistically could uh steal the steal the crown um I mean potentially like Travis etan last year was fourth in the NFL and Carries and didn't factor into the rushing title because he avered 3.8 yards per carry but again I think he got 76% of the Jags touches last year at running back and like tank not scared of tank bsby um taking away usage so if you just think if you think the Jags going to be good and they're like what are they like plus 250 to win their division or whatever they have a really good quarterback the offensive line should be better etn has like first round pick pedigree um so I think there are worlds where he could do it I think 20 to1 is a touch long um I think the wild card and the potential the potentially nuclear guy for this Market is what if um what if rahee moard gets hurt which he TS to get hurt every year and then it's like Devon anan's backfield in Miami and I think people forget like Devon hn um not that I was paying a ton of attention to Texas A&M games back in the day but I believe he was getting like Workhorse usage I don't think people think of him like that because he was in a time share last year and he's not the biggest guy in the world but like per touch he was like the greatest running back in history last year so I think there are worlds where um hn wrestles control that back field and then it's just running like six yards per carry um I said today on um be yesterday when people listening to this um on fantasy football happy hour that like hn has like Usain Bolt 2008 Beijing elements where it's like what even is this like what are we watching when I watched him last year it kind of reminded me of remember that um Niners playoff game in Lambo where Colin Kaepernick had like 181 rushing yards I like what the hell is this what what sport is this guy playing like is he just the greatest quarterback to ever live aan running back last year I think back to some of those like 70 yard runs against the Giants against the Broncos most famously when they put up 70 points it's just like this guy is just completely insane and if they if he stays healthy and they give him 65% of the calories which probably only happen if most it gets hurt um then he he could he could absolutely win this award oh this title yeah I mean uh he didn't have a ton of volume last year but he had quarterback EPA numbers to use right yeah yeah exactly all right um before we get out of here rushing total over unders do any leap out to you I I'll I'll kick us off while uh while you deal with um getting contorted by rushing total over unders um a couple that leap out to me and look the main thing to remember here is just attrition where I believe on average running backs Miss like 2.0 games per season with injury whereas wide receivers are 1.0 so you look at like yeah Bean's 975 and a half rushing yards and Bree Hall's a th and a half um Jonathan Taylor 1,25 and a half if these guys play 16 17 games they are very likely going to go over so that's why I find it very difficult to bet into these markets just because of attrition and being able of price in attrition individually but at the same time the ones that leap out to me the most Isaiah Pacho is set at only 900 a half rushing yards I think that is his back field in Kansas City um they gave him more work as the season went on I think that that is set too low I think that he should be set um you know closer to the range of those top tier guys where I think that he is going to get plenty of work and also like I had to bet my life on one team this year winning the most games would be the Kansas City Chiefs and so they'd be running the ball in second half so PCO over 900 a half um was the one that leftt out most to me anything stand out to you uh on yeah on the positive side uh James Conor being slumped on for some reason I think he can make that number pretty comfortably I like basically what they're building around him in the running game in Arizona uh I think hold your nose and play Naji Harris over I think that fact that Warren's already hurt uh he could ultimately be the guy for that backfield uh and then on the negative side give me all of the sack Barkley under um I just I'm still very very confused about fit between player and system there um he's Boomer bust that's ultimately not how the uh I think ult you know the the Eagles want to run offense I think as he kind of continues to get tackled behind the line of scrimmage on first and second Downs he could see his uh use share in the running game really shrink so give me the under on Berkeley yep I like that uh my favorite under bet would be DeAndre Swift who said at 750 and a half reason there is that um before last season gets hurt every year he did the top six 17 yards in his first three seasons also just like khil Herbert and Roshan Johnson and I think that those guys will get a look um in that backfield so take the under on DeAndre Swift um but I do like the Naj over he was built a play with Arthur Smith and Jaylen Warren hurt all right last one for us before we get out of here most rushing touchdowns mcaffrey is your favorite at plus 550 Derk Henry is plus 600 Jonathan Taylor 12 to1 Raheem moer I think had 18 rushing touchdowns last year he's 14 to one uh who do you like here uh so I was hoping to come in with a fun it could be anyone uh and let's take some quarterbacks that'll be fun Jaylen hers is already 12 to one in this market and he's even going to get put you know he's not he's in a less advantageous situation with Kelsey no longer under Center so or at at the center position so I think Herz is a scratch at 12 to one at price I was excited to to make a case for that but can't do it at that price um can I interest you in some Anthony Richardson uh if Anthony Richardson had 20 rushing touchdowns this season I will not be surprised I think his specific dynamism in the Red Zone will look very Cam Newton esque uh and I think uh I don't ultimately have a ton of Positive Vibes coming around the Colts right now uh but I do think that uh Anthony Richardson's ability to help them with some Red Zone efficiency via the ground is is for real and I think he could threaten that title yep I mean he's ultra high variance naturally be interested to see how much they do use him like inside the five or whether they want to you know keep him upright and try use Taylor more in those situations um but a lot of variance there I think Derrick Henry should be the favorite um for this award and for this title because and not there's not ton of made on the bonus not super advertising at plus 600 but if you can hunt around and find more like an 8 to1 nine to1 price I think that would be more appetising and the reason is twofold one the Ravens obviously very good offense they'll be in scoring position a ton last year and this is the key thing last year the Ravens had 33 rushing attempts inside the five which is a massive amount by comparison the Raiders had 1 so the Ravens they get inside the five Aon now you probably project that to be just a little bit lower on average just because you know they don't project as a 13 14 win one seed um again um but here's the key thing of those 33 carries inside the five Lamar only got five of them just in this offense they do not want to use Lamar Jackson at the goal line my theory there is that they're kind of saving him and his legs until fourth down because there's such confidence with him like let's just run GS Edwards into the line on first second and third down also Lamar only had 11 passing attempts inside the five as well so it's not like they were throwing a t and dropping back uh it's just they like to use their running backs at the goal line and so there's 28 running back carries inside the five for Baltimore and I think that this year Derk Henry is going to get the vast majority of those if he stays healthy um and also you know he can score from Beyond the five as well the guy you want a uh you want a very high confidence prediction yeah we are going to set a record by margin for fourth and goal attempts this year in the NFL it is going to be it is going to be such a easy obvious plus EV decision with the new kickoff rules of wait kick a field goal here or put give our OPP and then give our opponents the ball in the 30 yard line versus you know that the stick it's it's just going to be very straightforward and I think uh if you're keying on a team like the raid like the Ravens and a good offense and uh the uh you know first second and third down all potentially you know kind of viable Downs for Henry to get the ball um then yeah his Red Zone attempts could be astronomical I don't disagree with that yeah I think the other thing there too is it's this duel Factor where one you know just people just get progressively smarter each year and understand the value and the analytical value of going forward on fourth down fourth and goal um in particular here and then the other thing too is that just the Natural Evolution of the game and the quarterback position is just that more guys comeing into the league who can run now and that is the cheat code on fourth down think of the first five quarterbacks off the board this past year Caleb Williams Jaden Daniels Drake May JJ McCarthy Bo Knicks they can all move they can all run and obviously McCarthy's on the Shelf but I think that is just like there's just pocket passes are becoming fewer and fewer uh and I think that's going to lead to more more fourth down aggressiveness coupled with the fact that yeah it's just stupid not to go for it on fourth down for the most part um if it is ever a decision all right we are done for today don't forget to check out nbcsports.com for more information to help you with your wages thanks those watching on the NBC Sports YouTube channel and if you're listening to us in podcast form don't forget to rate and subscribe also a reminder to find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just H to amazon.com/mytv from Jay Croucher and Drew dini we'll see you tomorrow