Spring 2024 Climate and Water long-range forecast, issued 29 August 2024

Published: Aug 28, 2024 Duration: 00:04:20 Category: Science & Technology

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Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for spring 2024. First, let's look at recent conditions. Winter was drier than usual for the south-east, including some agricultural regions of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. For the far north, it was seasonally dry and for most other areas, winter rainfall was average to above average. August was notably wet in the south-west, with overall rainfall 36% above its monthly average, helping to ease recent dry conditions in the region. It was the wettest August on record for parts of Queensland's southern and central coast. But conditions were dry in the south-east. Winter days and nights were warmer than average across Australia. Despite some seasonally cool temperatures at times, this winter is on track to being one of Australia's warmest. This includes Australia's warmest August on record, which is tracking around 3 degrees above average. Across most of Australia, soil moisture was average to above average in August. … but for parts of the south, especially the south-east, soils were drier than average. Overall, Australia's total water storage is currently around 74%. In the east, many storages are at or near capacity, with some greater than 100% full. In contrast, some storages in southern areas are lower than this time last year. This includes the South West Coast, which at around 45% full, has dropped by 9%. Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for spring shows … Most of eastern Australia is likely to have above average rainfall. Rainfall is more likely to be in the typical seasonal range for some southern and central areas. In spring, large parts of Australia usually have above 50 mm of rain, with higher totals in the east. This spring, there's an increased chance of unusually high rainfall in parts of the east. The first significant rains of the northern Australian wet season are likely to be later than usual for the west and earlier than usual for most of Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory. Warmer than average spring days and nights are very likely across most of Australia, especially for Tasmania and the north. However, in southern areas there can still be a risk of frost. There's an increased chance of unusually warm spring days. This is more likely for large parts of the north, which typically have their warmest temperatures in the spring. As we approach the warmer months, the risk of heatwaves and bushfires increases. Now is a good time to prepare and review your bushfire and emergency plans. For August to October, low streamflow is likely for southern sites. Near-median to high flows are likely for scattered areas in the east and north. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are forecast across much of the globe, including in waters around Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño–Southern Oscillation are both neutral. In summary, our forecast for spring shows: rainfall is likely to be above average in large parts of the east with an earlier northern rainfall onset for most of Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory and warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Australia. We refresh the long-range forecast weekly with the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead. Select your location on the website for more details. Bye for now.

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