Tackle Today Stocks in the News - NVDA / DKS / ZS

tackle today Matt and Mark Justice bringing you all of the news the charts the key data points so that you can start your day informed uh got some news on Nvidia we have jolts Labor Market data and we have a market coming off a pretty vicious selling day yesterday trying to find some footing uh we had some negative economic data that we'll talk about here in a second but Matt a little bit of a bad news is good news Vibe for the first time time uh in a long time I haven't seen a bad news data point get bought up uh but uh technically Matt what are we looking at here in the in the major markets yeah and I do think technically that is the story that we are navigating after the volatility punch from uh yesterday due to nvidia's report and we'll get into that here in just one second but from a technical perspective you obviously saw a violation of the intraday level at 555 yesterday and once that broke volatility came right back up into the market as you saw that violation of the interday support and then what occurs when you violate support we talked about this yesterday and Tackle today we talked about it in detail in the tackle trading newsletter talking about what are the technical scenarios this week as we as as we update our community on navigating the technical landscape every single week in the newsletter and we talked about the potential of the uh the breakout of 565 and if it didn't break out the path of least resistance was down and if you violated 555 five where were you going to go you were going to go down to 550 where the next level of support is and so that's exactly what transpired yesterday despite all the volatility and there was a tremendous amount of volatility we violated support and what occurred it found the next level of support and then you're looking at a little bit of a support bounce here Mark and and and you're talking a little bit of good news or bad news is good news because the market is a little bit up today on a slight uh negative uh report coming out of the jolts we'll talk about that here in a second but I think we're just seeing a little bit of a repre bounce after yesterday's selloff uh and and support typically does do that and so it's going to be interesting to see what type of development we get after that fairly aggressive sell off yesterday and now we're sitting at a fairly important support level on both the daily chart in the S&P 500 and then obviously on the weekly chart you're kissing up against that 90m which is right right around that 550 level as well a violation of 550 you really don't see support until get down to about 540 so keep an eye on 550 very important support level if you violate that the most likely scenario is 540 yeah and that 540 is where that 20 weekly is uh which has acted as support before I know balls are like screw 540 let's trade sideways into the unemployment report on Friday here uh establish some support maybe some upward liftoff uh but certainly a true battle going on right now uh true battle going on right now let's get to that economic data mat uh I'm also curious your take on Nvidia but today all right first labor data point in a labor week we have the monthly unemployment report on Friday we get ADP and unemployment claims tomorrow the first little data point was jolts and it came in Weak on the weak side now joltz what joltz does is it lets us know the amount of job openings out there well there were expected to be eight just over 8 million job openings came in really light one of the lowest numbers we've seen in years at 7.67 million so a pretty sizable Miss on what one could argue is the most important category of economic data labor so weak report now we have seen weak economic reports get sold you know pretty viciously going back over a month now this one did not trigger any selling programs well it did for the first like 30 seconds on a dump but that got bought up that's an interesting little data point Matt that bad news getting bought up on a day we haven't seen it now this just one time do you make anything more of it then just okay we've seen it once uh the only thing I think you can take out of it is it it gives you a little bit of indication that the market is having a are we going to get a 0.25 are we going to get a 050 that that that is typically when you see the good uh bad news as good news it's when you're seeing the market beg for an additional rate cut is is typically what you do see and and that's what you saw a little bit here today on the probability of that 0.25 versus 050 cut coming in September the the probability shifted a little bit here from just yesterday was 38% probability of a 50 uh 50 basis point cut now after the jols report you have a 47% probability of uh of a 50 basis point and so there a little bit of bad news is good news today but I I I certainly wouldn't suggest we're we're in a good news is bad news bad news is good news environment as of yet yeah and then honestly the the the technical side of the equation today is an overextended bounce is kind of my read on the technical yeah I that's uh not bad analysis at all uh it'll be interesting if that starts to Trend or if bad news becomes bad news really quickly uh but uh one of those things that I just put in my head um you know to see if it confirms in future data but uh it was noticeable to see that 50 basis point jump in odds uh Matt yesterday we had a pretty big selloff the video was down 10% at one point and a lot of Traders around the world were scratching their head it's like what is behind This ferocious selloff and then we saw the nidian news come out uh just around the market close uh obviously some um that might have gotten leaked somewhere uh well and that's why I said what I did in the write up here this uh this move comes after Nvidia stock dropped nearly 10% kind of giving us an indication of exactly why Nvidia was selling aggressively we were sitting in the Traders Lounge yesterday and obviously tackled today and the market was selling off and we knew Nvidia and and semiconductors were leading the sell off all day long they started the sell off they led the sell off all day long uh uh very quickly in the day we knew it was all about Nvidia but we didn't know exactly why it was about Nvidia quite frankly uh usually have a very good understanding of what's creating the volatility in the market but as of yesterday there was a little bit of you know open question why why is semi selling so so aggressively why is Max 7 selling so aggressively why is the market selling so aggressively on data that was just non-existent at the time well it does come out later on yesterday that the Department of Justice is is filing a subpoena in an antitrust investigation on Nvidia and and basically uh they're they're suggesting that there's some concern that Nvidia has a monopoly in the AI dat data center chip market and and I would I would suggest to the doj that they do Nvidia absolutely does have a current Monopoly because they created the first AI chip they were first to Market they created a better product they currently have the best product on the market and so I I I find it extremely curious and slightly concerning that the doj is targeting Invidia simply because they were first to Market that that seems very aggressive this early in the AI Sagen it seems like they're targeting Nvidia to a certain extent Mark I do have a general philosophy that governments around the world will Target the max 7 companies for fines and aggressive fines and and so on and so forth and I kind of see that that that here as well I find it very difficult to see this catching more legs materializing into something significant yes okay it's it's just it's it's something that is concerning there's no doubt about it but we've seen the EU Target almost every single MA 7 company out there and the logic and we've seen the US government now Target a few of the max 7 components out there from an antitrust perspective as well but this one on Nvidia seems very curious given the fact that I'm not sure you can blame Nvidia for AMD not being a stiff competitor yet I'm not sure you can blame Nvidia for arm not being a stiff competitor yet those those that competition's coming it's coming and the doj is just really really aggressive and and really early in in that conversation in my opinion I'm not sure it's going to go as far as the doj expects it to go here but again it whenever there's a little bit of smoke some uh sometimes there's some fire there so it is obviously concerning but but at least we know what caused the volatility at at this point yeah I know it's uh you know and it's one of those analo get a news story and there's no support levels they're going to have fun with that that day right but does it materialize in anything I think your analysis is spot on well especially when most people in the market did not have an understanding of what was creating the volatility now we now we do we now we do we can get into the analysis okay is this is this concerning is it not is there something here is it not and there's obviously some concern there and and we got to let that play out but it it's I I'm I'm not as concerned as I was yesterday for example when we were just seeing the volatility but we didn't have understanding what was causing it now we do now let's see what happens from a technical perspective in the semiconductors yeah I know and uh we're going to highlight the chart of the day in our uh written portion uh you know showing that that 200 in fact let's go will you go look at the SMH 200 day uh moving average because this is something on the Traders Lounge in the coming weeks that we're going to track right you you you had your rally you came back this is a logical place for a support Zone uh to develop uh you know how how on a scale of 1 to 10 uh how high is this on your radar right now oh I think it's a space that you have to track right now so what however you want to answer that 8910 it's the semiconductors and the semiconductors are around the 200 day moving average which does not does not occur very frequently um the last couple times we've gotten a 200 day moving average test on the semiconductors you got a violent test here from a volatility perspective in the 200 Health you got a simple test over here against the 200 day last October end of October and that was the beginning point of perhaps the the best trend we've had in the marketplace uh over the course of the last couple years and so I I I it's certainly concerning with the volatility right now and it's very difficult to get a proper technical read in the semiconductors right now but over the next couple weeks if you start to see pattern development around that 200 day moving average absolutely you're going to want to take a look at the semiconductors at the 200 day moving average in my opinion now a couple other earnings reports Dick Sporting Goods and Zs uh how' the numbers look yeah on Dick Sporting Goods uh and on Zs uh kind of a bad day to report earnings I would say after after the volatility from uh yesterday dicksport and goods had a pretty good report they came in with a beat against expectation on EPS they also beat on the revenue side of the equation and they also raised for Rel looking guidance on the EPS while they reaffirmed guidance on the revenue side and I would say that is a really good report out of Dick Sporting Goods on Zs Zs not exactly a good report they certainly did outperform the EPS expectation by 177% that's a good beat on EPS Revenue Rose 30% year-over-year beating the forecast by about 30 million but they did officially lower q1 EPS guidance and whenever you lower q1 guidance uh that's just going to kind of take uh take all the uh all the all the attention in an earnings report EPS Revenue guidance those are the three things you're always looking for in in an earnings analysis and it goes the priority order guidance EPS then Revenue guidance by far is the most important EPS is the second most important and then revenue is a distant third when it comes to the performance of an earnings report now when you are looking at Dick Sporting Goods for example Dix was coming from the high point to obviously hadn't got caught up in a lot of the volatility it really held up really really good it did not hold up today following that report here on dicks a little bit of a gap down but no sell down Behavior treating it like a bullish retracement that the candle suggests little bit of a hammer candle following that gap down looks to be a little bit of a support build but to me dicks had a really good report High bar expectation because of where you were at technically on the chart little bit of a gap down is understandable given the fact that we're going through through some volatility concern in the marketplace but a positive report nonetheless out of Dick Sporting Goods they have been a well-run company for years like they just do a great job just the management hats off to them what one of the better retail man uh management companies no doubt uh on on Zs here Zs was is obviously a high growth type stock with a lot of volatility here today down 15% on the day little bit of a gap down not necessarily A massive gap down into a massively important support level and so when you're looking at their earnings report uh coming out as Z here today uh we had crowd Strike last week Paulo Al told the week before now you got Zs and when you're looking at all all of those stocks from from Zs paloalto and and crowd strike there is some concern in the cyber security side of the equation ZZ came out with the beat on EPS like we talked about they beat on Revenue but when you drop forward-looking guidance you're telling the Traders and the investors that we we we got some uncertainty for the future we don't know if we're going to be able to you know uh be able to uh handle that based on what we thought we were going to do we're going to update that guidance to reflect Our concern about the environment well the price has to reflect that as well gap down pretty aggressively but a gap down into a very important support level let's see what happens here at that support level but from a technical perspective that's not a good look from a technical perspective it's a pretty nasty gap on a pretty uh bad guidance report out of Zs uh let's go over talk Global markets uh let's go to the dollar uh this is a chart map maybe the the chart you and I are honing in on the most because it's ramifications in gold and silver Matt that's a good look for gold and silver you know we got a lot of economic data the next uh 48 Hours not a lot in the weeks that follow uh you confirm down here Matt that's a going to be a real good technical signal for and as you said on the Traders Lounge um maybe a silver ad uh immediately but certainly beneficial to gold as well yeah nice little pivot point on the dollar here is it does look as it confirms against that uh against that 90 Ma on the downside confirms against the low price from yesterday as well we'll see if it can close underneath the 90 ma there but when you talk about good news is bad news and bad news is good news I I the dollar is going to tell the truth of that story and the dollar is running specifically on economic data here on Beats it's getting a bid on misses it's getting a it's getting a it's getting a sell and and so you had a Miss on the on the jolts report here today seeing a little bit of downward pressure on on the dollar here that's going to improve the conditions of the market that's going to improve the conditions of the commodity landscape itself now in terms of of that secondary follow through uh just one quick point on the dollar here today where the volatility stopped was right in line with where the old pivot point of support is keep an eye on that because anything follow through uh against that will be a really good environment when you're looking at the Commodities and So you you're getting what you want to see in the dollar and it's behaving exactly how we expected it to behave from a technical perspective now when you are look at those Commodities such as silver such as gold such as uh such as copper you are seeing a little bit of a support build right around the 28 level on Silver that is a really good support level there is no doubt about that that's the support level in the left shoulder Against The Head and Shoulders formation that you're that you are tracking currently in silver and so anything on the silver side you're front running here and you got to understand that you don't have a high probability Edge you have a good Turn versus risk ratio in my estimation and so it's not a pure technical uh read here Chucky the technical read is actually on the dollar itself but you do you are sitting at support on Silver right around that 28 level so keep an eye on that 28 level on copper here you're going to need to see a little bit more development quite frankly on copper versus silver in my estimation given the fact that you got a lot of moving averages that are a little bit more concerning in my estimation on copper than you do on Silver on the gold side of the equation I'm always impressed with gold and I'm impressed yet again with gold here today but gold hasn't really got caught up in the volatility in in in any capacity it's really just kind of stuck in mud between 2500 right now and 2550 or excuse me 2560 65 that's kind of the top end of that resistance level but but it really impressed that it hasn't got caught up in any of the volatility yeah I know and we're going to continue these conversations on the Traders Lounge in depth uh come join us come be part of this amazing Pro Community uh sign up for a 15-day free trial go to tackl trading.com sign up for that trail and see what it's all about