AI Stocks Bubble POP? Follow The Money! & DG, LULU, ULTA Earnings (Daily Recap)

Tech to Value rotation? good afternoon Traders and investors will back here with another one coming to a Thursday Market recap hope all of you had a very good day of trading today and in today's markets guys well what started off as a very nice and bright green day across the markets as a whole quickly eroded into either break even for the spy and even a percentage loss for the CU Q's at a certain point over the course of the afternoon as well the markets were up pretty much 1% for the spy and over 1% for the qq's respectively and that all quickly changed as soon as 2 p.m. pretty much troll around take a look at this here guys big drop in the afternoon session however there wasn't any news to be had whatsoever this is just largely due to Big Tech pulling back from some of its gains and semiconductors giving back all of the gains that they made today and a lot of the names flipping from green to Red so the market volatility especially in the names of tech and semiconductors definitely does continue but we did have some significant outperformance in our more value oriented sectors as you can see Healthcare and financials etching out some beautiful gains for the day so in today's video we're going to take a look at a few things together number one I have three earnings reports prepared for you guys and those are going to be Lululemon Ulta beauty and Dollar General your largest Market Movers of the day pretty much and three consumer discretionary stocks that are virtually signaling the exact same thing after that guys we're going to go through our major technical analysis rundown of our Major Market indexes and our big Tech names and see whether or not these things are possibly ready to buy the dip on especially in terms of your big Tech names and no port folio update for today we're going to save that for the weekend recap that we do tomorrow after the close so hopefully you understand that so now let's move into the um let's move into it right away here guys lot to cover today spy pretty much flat on the day QQ down about 15% but take a look at this rotation here guys yes you did have a few outperformance gains in terms of apple and Amazon meta and Microsoft 2 coming in a little bit of green a lot of software as a service plays were also significantly up in this category and down here as well with in it and service now but the loss leaders on the day guys definitely has to be Nvidia Nvidia paired a lot of its losses from yesterday in the early morning this morning they actually got back all the way down to only -2% and then unfortunately unraveled as the day moved on but that is pretty much your loss leader for the day and when Nvidia has such a large weight in all the indexes very normal so if Nvidia pulls back 4% in tray you are going to give back a significant amount on the indexes but even I was surprised in the late after in the late afternoon move take a look though guys the bottom half of the market your value and defensive oriented names continue to run away with this Market currently financials performing well Healthcare performing well Industrials very good day for them and also your consumer defensives although a lot of them were red they did hold up fairly decently especially in relation to uh semiconductors and consumer discretionary stocks per se take a look at one day relative performance guys you will see that even better most of everything in the green was more oriented to defensives real estate consumer defensives technology and communication Services led to the downside on the onee relative here guys well everything pretty much in the green except for the three the three areas that have been pretty much under the gun recently which is consumer cyclical obviously with that consumer discretionary spending coming down a lot of these stocks are just continuously in the mud communication Services also down that was largely led to the downside by Google's performance right there and then of course guys lastly we have your technology sector which is still in the red for the week so definitely not a very good time for them and I keep saying guys there is going to be this continued rotation away from Tech names possibly and away from consumer discretionary names and into more value and defensive names that usually perform well especially when interest rates start coming down because a lot of those names pay dividends and are already at levels that have been crushed since 2022 so the rotation is well alive in the markets and as I always say guys you just have to follow the money so moving on in guys before we get into more technical analysis right here let's Dive Right into our earnings plays and actually before that guys my apologies we have to go through exactly what happened this morning not much change as a whole guys we did get the GDP numbers we were a bit concerned whether or not they were going to revise them to the downside this is just a preliminary revision we already got the Q2 GDP numbers pretty much last month so you can see nice little increase here 3% in relation to the 2.8 expected but not much has changed there and initial jobless claims coming in largely as per the expectation we did get a glimpse into pce numbers as well and they came in under the expectation the expectation was 2.6% inflation year-over ayear and we got a preliminary number of 2.5 we will see how the final number comes in tomorrow but all in all looking very good here guys in terms of the overall State of Affairs now I continue to say here guys right this is pretty much a soft Landing scenario whereby there is no net crash in the economy right now or an economic data what we're seeing is a progressive slowdown in the economy and even your consumer discretionary facing companies such as the ones we're about to see in earnings Dollar General Lululemon Ulta beauty Nike Starbucks and the list goes on right yes they are noting lower and lower year-over-year sales and same store comparables however it is not absolutely crashing it is a very slow and Progressive decline right now which is perfectly in line with the definition of a soft Landing so yes I agree with everybody out there things are not necessarily getting better but they're not getting exponentially worse we are kind of making a linear trajectory towards the worst end but definitely not the best environment for the markets right now as a whole there is still a lot of uncertainty pertaining to the economy and especially the jobs market so the best we can do is take this one data point at a time and follow the money instead of being invested right now trying to buy the heck out of big Tech dips or Tech dips as a whole semiconductor dips as a whole and consumer discretionary we should be focusing on more value oriented name more defensive oriented names as well give me a very quick second sorry about that guys kind of lost my voice right there that's pretty much everything so now let us jump right into our earning Cycles shall we so we're going to start it off with a fairly good one guys and this is going DG Earnings to be Dollar General Dollar General down today 32% and this is nothing new for Dollar General guys they have been hit and hit and hit quarter after quarter as their sales continue to dwindle the big problem with Dollar General is simply the fact that their highest margin items in the store are things that people are just not spending money on right now think light articles of clothing Toys stuff like that usually the consumer discretionary items have higher margins for these stores but apparently from what Dollar General and Dollar Tree have been telling us over the last year people don't go there to shop for those things anymore maybe they're buying them on Amazon maybe they're buying them on teu but they're definitely not buying them at Dollar General Dollar General's most of their sales that have been coming in have kind of been exactly what Wall Street and Target have alluded to as well a lot of food purchases a lot of uh consumer essential purchases and unfortunately those items guys do not have the highest margins so even though the revenue is slowing their profits are slowing even more and they're getting pretty much a double hit in that respect let's take a look at some of their numbers guys and you will see they were not very good so Dollar General EPS Miss by by 5% and a revenue Miss by 1.52% but the damage was not all there the damage was in the continued negative guidance that the company issued once again now let's move on forward shall we let's take a look directly at their earnings call so net sales increased 4.2% that is okay but definitely not the best here guys same store sales increased only 0.5% and you'll see from here on out the numbers get excessively worse operating profit decreased 20.6% that is a very steep decline diluted earnings per share decreased 20% definitely not going to do any favors for the stock price guys when you're reducing your earnings per share that just means that even though the stock is dropping considerably it's not getting any cheaper it's your EPS that's declining that is the worst case scenario for any company out there let's move on further here's what the company had to say about this despite advancing several of our operational goals and driving positive traffic growth well only about five% right we are not satisfied with our financial results including Topline results below our expectations for the quarter while we believe the softer sales Trends are partially attributable to a core customer who feels financially constrained we know the importance of controlling what we can control so essentially guys they're trying to blame it on the customer slowdown but then again they're not trying to blame it on them saying that they are there are things that they can control guys when I read this I just read one thing the company has no more pricing power guys and that is is the problem when you're already selling discount items when people stop going there what are you supposed to do are you actually going to reduce even further the prices of uh products on which you already make very razor thin margins this is the importance of having margin as a protection and safety net take a look at the left side of my big head right here you will see the net margins for Dollar General they have never been all of that impressive right usually in the low singled digigit numbers so what are they supposed to do guys they definitely cannot increase promotions that much because they'll forfeit pretty much all of their margins so very Troublesome time for Dollar General right now moving on further gross profit as a percentage of net sales was 30% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to 31.1 in the second quarter of 2023 so unfortunately guys gross profit down as well there a decrease of 1% the gross profit rate decrease was primarily attributable to increased markdowns AKA promotions what we were just talking about increased inventory damages that a new one a greater proportion of sales coming from the consumables category which I talked about in the um introduction right an increased shrink shrink is a very polite word for saying that they have problems with instore theft they've been talking about this now for the past five six quarters in a row and they are still dealing with those theft issues right now and now here is why the stock is down 32% this guidance guys is absolutely terrible I'll just call it as it is guys it is very very poor net sales growth in the range of approximately 4.7 to 5.3 compared to the previous guidance of 6% to 6.7% guys at the lower end of the range that is 2% in net sales growth lost that is a large amount of money especially for a company that's used to making roughly $40 billion per year guys that is a ton of money that they are potentially losing out on by uh having lower sales guidance of course same store sales growth in a range of approximately 1 to 1.6% growth compared to its previous expectation in the range of 2 to 2.7 literally slashing their same stores growth estimates by half that is not very good and here is the kicker the one reason why the stock is down so much because this is the factor that plays the most important role in financial valuation models the EPS growth rate that is how you derive your price to earnings ratio and even though right even though the stock may be down a lot if EPS continues declining guys the stock even though it's declining it's not getting cheaper right this is what you call sometimes a value trap so diluted DPS in the range of approximately 550 to 620 compared to the estimate of approximately 680 to 755 guys that is almost 10 right that's over at this point over 10% reduction almost closer to about 20% right if we're were just to take the lower end of the ranges right here 550 divided by 680 right that is 20% almost 20% reduction in EPS that is not going to do it guys that's why the stock is down over 20% right very very bad bad po performance for Dollar General unfortunately we're not going to go through their numbers just understand that they still do have a large problem with merchandise inventories up here right they've been trying to get rid of some of these inventories guys but they're just not able to wind it down quickly enough a lot of other companies have been having this problem the most famous one has been Nike right so let's get into the valuation even though the stock is down tremendously today and tremendously down from its all-time highs now down 68% is it a good deal right now well let's have a look right so in terms of the revenue growth for the next couple of years 5.4% that is down significantly from its traditional 7 to 8% excuse me EPS growth of about 10% per year that is still fairly generous in my humble opinion if we take a look down here you will see that yes EPS is going to get crushed this year they're supposed to be expanding in the next couple of Year guys but I do expect that the growth rates for these EPS numbers will be revised in the near-term future and revenue growth is positive but definitely slowing as well so let's get take a look here Ford P at $84 is about a 14.3 now 14.3 may not seem high but when you only have EPS growth of 10% per year right a PEG ratio of about 1.43 it's not even that close to one guys to be a crazy good deal out there right now the one thing that is positive for them is that they have been buying back a ton of shares in the company's history however as you can see they have paused all BuyBacks over the last four quarters and this was also available in there if I just do share rep purchases right here right so no purchases of no BuyBacks of the stock in the entire last quarter as well they still have 1.4 billion in available cash I think they're holding on well they have that approved under the program it doesn't mean that they can do it right uh it doesn't mean they have to do it if they want to do it they can if not they can allocate the cash elsewhere but that 1.4 would be very very welcome for the stock here guys right 1.4 divided by their market cap right now that would be roughly 75% of shares outstanding that could give their share price a nice little back stop for all of this bleeding if I was the company guys if I if I didn't need the cash if I wasn't in risk of uh falling behind on debt payments perhap perhaps they should probably start buying back shares but there must be a reason why they're not doing it it's probably because they're actually nervous about their financials so all in all guys the company right now is not even very cheap as a whole right we can go take a look at some of their uh some of their historical uh ratios as well right take a look at their historical price to earnings ratio right now the forward base is about a 14 but on a trailing basis as you can see they're not really cheap right now right the lowest on a forward basis yes yes but on a trailing basis not even so cheap right now even at about $84 so it's not as if you're getting a generational uh discount on Dollar General in relation to their earnings growth right so unfortunately for me guys Dollar General is going to be a pass you might remember I added this one in the um in the dumpster dive portfolio right where I only bought 50 bucks of it uh just a few week weeks ago here right now at about the 120 Mark and this is why guys I refuse to go heavier in some of these beaten down companies until we see some quarter over quarter improvements and until we can be confident that all of this damage is now behind us and that the company is on a better path moving forward but I do not see that just yet from Dollar General so that's pretty much everything from Dollar General guys I would not touch it which is why I'm not even giving some technical analysis levels right now guys I'm just not touching this company it is literally a falling knife right now so we need to establish some support levels before bottoming out right here the next big area is coming up 76 all the way down to about $70 guys that is literally the next area of big support from all the way back in 2017 now let's get into company number two guys and we will see that the damage simply continues unfortunately for these companies so Lululemon um pretty much up 5.36% but LULU Earnings the earnings numbers were not good now Lululemon has had a very very volatile after hour session they're probably giving their earnings call right now trying to uh be as optimistic as possible Right but when the numbers were released this stock was down almost 10% and with good reason guys the numbers were not very good and Lululemon is a perfect example of why especially in the fashion industry guys I'm very hesitant to invest in any company whatsoever I have never played Abra choman Fitch I've never really played Lululemon that much as well I can pretty much count on my hands the amount of times that I have played Lululemon it's just because the company does not have in my humble opinion a noteworthy competitive advantage that is not being that is not not able to be replicated by its competition as a matter of fact one of the main things that's been affecting Lululemon in the past 2 years is competition from new brands especially online brands that start on Tik Tok and Instagram right and unfortunately for them guys they just have no moat we have to say it how it is right do they have good quality products yes but that is not a moat guys if people can replicate your products and undercut you well unfortunately that is synonymous with not having a competitive advantage and not having a specific spefic moat right they were a very very solid company they pioneered the ath Leisure uh fashion trend as a whole and it really took off um a few years prior to the pandemic but ever since we've kind of been topping out right here since competitors have been coming on the into the space since the um early portions of 2021 and 2022 you can see Lulu Lem is very very tough for them to start uh protecting some of their share price action as a matter of fact if you would have invested in this company four years ago right now you would be unfortunately down right so take a look their numbers here guys Lululemon EPS EPS beat by about 7.47% that is on lowered guidance and they did have a nice Revenue uh miss here by well nice they did have unfortunate I meant nice for here and bad for there bad Revenue miss here by about 1.52% so let us dive into the numbers for Lululemon shall we so Lulu Lemon Cuts guidance misses sales estimates after botched product launch not the best headline as a whole right so moving on Lululemon lowered its guidance and posted its first Revenue Miss in more than 2 years on Thursday after it bought watched a highly anticipated product launch and growth slowed in the Americas the company now expects full year Revenue to be between 10.38 and 10.48 down from a previous range of 10.7 billion and 10.8 billion so about a 2% Miss on the revenue guidance for the remainder of the Year EPS as well was about a 2% Miss on guidance 13.95 to 14.15 so now down from her previous guidance of 1427 to 1447 so miss on guidance on the top line and Miss on guidance on the bottom line let's continue Lulu Le also missed expectations on comparable sales which grew 2% well behind the estimates of 5.9 comparable sales in the Americas fell 3% the trend doesn't appear poised to improve in the current quarter lul lemon said said it expects sales to grow 6 to 7 uh 6 to 7% worse than the 99.2% growth that analysts had expected so they're literally missing on everything right now guys very unfortunate for them during the quarter Lulu posted its Breeze through leggings launched in early July after it received a wave of complaints about the product's unflattering fit the PO the botched launch came after the company struggled with a number of other self-inflicted issues with its assortment including not having the right colors and sizes that its core customers desired this we brought up last ering cycle guys how the CEO was putting a lot of emphasis that they missed their numbers because there was one certain style in which people wanted certain sizes and colors and they just didn't have them and in my head I was thinking well if that's all it takes to severely impact your numbers maybe there's something larger at play here right so like other retailers retailers that are seeing low uh demand slow Lululemon appears focused on what's within its control operations and efficiency while the sales picture during the quarter was rougher than expected Lulu's profits came in higher than anticipated The only positive point of the entire data set gross profit grew 9% while its gross margin grew 8 percentage points uh to 59.6 better than the 57 7 that analyst had expected its operating margin and operating income also increased so at least the company is showing uh veteran discipline in terms of cost control right the last thing you want to do as a big business is when revenues are slowing you keep the cost the same or keep increasing costs right that is a recipe to erode your margins and really annoy shareholders big time right so the fact that they acknowledge that they there is underlying problems in the economy right now in the consumer they understand there's work be done and they are having active cost control right now that is the best thing that they can do as a company right but still they're going to have to offset eventually some of this weakened Demand by promotions and that in turn will affect their margins so let's move into the valuation for Lululemon right now so in terms of valuation here guys right well the company let's get into some of um let's get into a few of the things that makes lemon pretty good right number one is the fact that they don't have much debt as you can see they do bring in a decent amount of free cash flow per year and they have well enough cash on the balance sheet to pay off any long-term outstanding debt now their margins as well their margins are not that bad over the past couple of quarters they have been slightly inconsistent but this company is used to having about mid teens percentage points I wouldn't be surprised if that is tested over the next few quarters if they have to increase sales promotions to keep customers coming into the door and purchasing online in terms of the EPS well you can see they're kind of um they've kind of revised EPS to the downside now but we do still have EPS growth supposedly over the next foreseeable future and we do still have Revenue growth over the next few years as well but both of these things are slowing right they are increasing but they're increasing at a slightly slower Pace that is what's been afflicting the company so far so the company right now is down significantly off the all-time highs guys down about 50% just year to date the company is down 49% very very very unfortunate time to be a Lululemon shareholder right now take a look at their profit margins so their profit margins are okay got to give them that they've been able to maintain gross profit margins decently operating margins they've been able to maintain those in the low 20% range not as high as it used to be for the company but still somewhat decent right there's no major major red flags they've done a good job coming back from the lows of 23 that's for sure and their net margins as well as I was saying mid teens roughly in line with the higher end of the company's historical average but this is Lululemon's margins to lose right we have to be very very careful of this so just keep an eye on that and in terms of share BuyBacks as well at least they do a very good job of buying buying back their shares you can see that they are continuing to buy back shares even throughout the decline of the stock which is the best case scenario for the company in my opinion in terms of the valuation here guys well their Ford Peg uh PE ratio at 260 right now is about an 18.5 18.5 in relation to the history of the company guys is quite low admittedly right so let's take a look right here you can see their price to earnings trailing right now for the past is about a 21 on a forward basis it's about an 18.5 you usually don't see Lulu lemon trading at an 18.5 guys as a matter of fact they haven't really traded at an 18.5 in the company's history since going public so you could say that they are slightly cheap in terms of a uh PE ratio what the problem is with that is the Ford Peg because their EPS growth rate has been slowing it doesn't much improve their PEG ratio right now only about a 1.68 1.68 is okay in my humble opinion however guys even though the valuation does appear to be quite juicy and attractive in relation to the company's history we have to understand what is affecting the company right now and this for me has to be aspect number one right unfortunately right last quarter they had one of these problems they had the problem that they had a problem with assortment right right colors and sizes now they have a problem with a botched launch it just goes to show how hard it is guys to maintain your industry leader status when you are a fashion brand you will continuously get challenged by the competition and usually people with fashion brands are very very picky and if they have one bad experience they may simply never come back right so unfortunately this is the main thing that's plaguing Lululemon and is the one thing that's kept me away from the company now in terms of a trade here guys a swing trade well there is a current swing trade available right you would have to pretty much if you do want to go for the recovery story of the stock even though I don't personally assume that the stock is now yet bottomed I know it looks crushed guys but keep in mind this is possibly just the start of a larger consumer slowdown so in my humble opinion it's very very tough to trade this one as we can see we do not have a defined weekly uptrend as of yet but if we do start retracing back into this location right maybe in the 250 range well at that point you'd be looking for possibly this following turnaround setup right we'd have to be waiting for the daily downtrend to come to an end daily uptrend to be formed as soon as we see a classic daily uptrend formation right now that is when we could possibly enter for a weekly uh momentum trade right there our stops would unfortunately have to go way below here 225 so right now there is not much of an attractive trade right we really need to see it come down a bit more if it can come back down below 250 then we can maybe have a $25 stop- loss and at that point you'd probably be targeting these weekly highs just above us right there at about the 312 level but unfortunately they have to get through all of this massive resistance first right so I don't even like it here guys I'm forcefully trying to derive a setup for you but I will not be touching this one as well my two favorite companies in fashion because they have an actual solid business model that's tough to be replicated right and overall appreciated by the consumer TJX is number one uh extremely efficient business guys way more efficient than Lululemon as a matter of fact and the other company right that has a tremendous moat and a dominance over the entire market in terms of what they do is Louis Vuitton those are the only two fashion brands that I have in my or that I consider for any form of long-term portfolio but even for swing trading guys because we know these things can shift around quickly ULTA Earnings and now the last company we're going to be covering here is Ulta beauty so Ulta beauty as well down about 6.67% in the after hours not responding too well to their earnings and even even in spite of Warren Buffett buying the company here guys the company was just not able to keep it up now down as I said roughly 7% in the after hours so let's have a look as what's what exactly is plaguing Ulta beauty and and Ulta beauty is given is being given a run um just as a just as a preface to this right the reason that Ela beauty is somewhat down here today as well there's been a lot of talk about increased competition for Ulta Beauty from someone like Sephora right and who is uh Sephora obviously everybody knows them as a company right but do you guys know who owns Sephora well I'll give you a little hint it's the company we just saw right Lou Vuitton so not only is Louis Vuitton because it's a conglomerate of 86 different luxury Brands not only does it compete with Lou Lemon right because it's more on the higher end of Fashion retail so it does compete although they don't sell exactly the same things it is still a fashion retailer right so not only does Louis Vuitton compete indirectly and somewhat directly with a brand like Lou Lou 11 but they also have Sephora which is the top leading company in the world for uh beauty products in terms of in relation to measured by gen Z take a look at this right here females female teens's favorite Beauty shopping destinations for the fall of 2023 we're going to wait for the survey that comes out this year but this was from 2023 Sephora leading the charge Ulta beauty it number two and then you obviously have another set of retailers down here which carry these do carry products that are also sold by Sephora and Ulta beauty and by elf beauty stuff like that as well but you can see clear winner is Sephora and what does Sephora have that Ulta beauty does not they have international exposure ala Beauty for now is simply only in the United States Sephora is now a worldwide brand so goes to show you guys the importance of having emote this is just one of Louis Vuitton's many companies and they are dominating ala Beauty and that's ala Beauty's Only line of business right so moving on in don't want to take too much away from Ala beauty of course it is at a decent valuation right now let's get into it so moving into it down uh on EPS they missed on EPS by about 3% missed on Revenue by about 2.3% as well let's dive into the uh nuts and bolts of the earnings report shall we so let's dive into it Ulta misses Wall Street expectations trims guidance after quarterly sales decline same pretty much thing as uh Lululemon and same thing as Dollar General even though they are all in different industri consumer slowdown is broad-based at this point let's move into it the company fell short of second quarter expectations and trimmed its full year guidance after a decline in same store sales during the most recent period it was the company's first earnings per share Miss since May of 2020 four years guys and first Revenue Miss since December of 2020 comparable sales for the second quarter fell 1.2% compared with an 8% increase a year earlier and well below the 1.2% growth that the analyst had expected so they were expecting to grow say comparable store sales and unfortunately they lost 1.2% now while we are encouraged here's what the COO had to say Dave Kimble while we are encouraged by many positive indicators across our business our second quarter performance did not meet our expectations driven primarily by a decline in comparable store sales we are clear about the factors that adversely impacted our store performance economic consumer slowdown and we have actions underway to address the trends promotions right loss of pricing power the company now forecast full year same store sales in a range of flat to 2% compared with prior guidance of 2 to 3% growth now let's move on shares of Ulta have been suffering since CEO Dave Kimble warned of cooling Beauty demand at an investor conference back in April Kimble said although a pullback was expected it had hit the company a bit earlier and a bit bigger than anticipated as a matter of fact this is not something that other Beauty retailer elf Beauty has said recently and even in Louis Vuitton's earnings which we covered on the channel this is not something that Sephora said either right Sephora was still relatively on Trend but then again um even though their sales in North America were slightly slower the international revenues for Sephora largely made up for that which is something that Ulta beauty does not have during the company's first quarter earnings call in May Kimble outlined plans to boost sales that span five key areas product product assortment brand social relevance enhancing the consumer digital experience boosting the Loyalty program and evolving the company's promotional levers why I read this to you guys is because this company understands that there's a problem at hand they already have a business plan to address these problems and are trying to work on it as best as they can here guys right they're trying to protect profits same thing as Lululemon these are very wellestablished companies with very good management teams they know the job at hand they know what needs to be done it's all about cost control promotions and marketing to somewhat stimulate demand artificially while not giving back too much in the market margins margin compression during a consumer economic slowdown is quite normal but you can control to somewhat extent you can control the degree to which you get hit in those margins right so the company is doing the best it can with its cards at hand so moving on in to our valuation here guys for Ulta beauty so obviously we know that Ulta beauty is now down significantly from their all-time high uh roughly about 35% and we know that Warren Buffet open a position somewhere in this area right here so we know that for a majority of his Holdings that he's probably underwater right now on this stock so moving into the valuation let's see why potentially Warren Buffett bought it so let's move into their uh business in terms of their balance sheet so let's take a look at their balance sheet not really a problem yes they do have about $2 billion worth of debt here guys but the company brings in roughly 122 billion of Revenue per year they bring in a decent amount of free cash flow per year about a billion dollars and they have a decent amount of cash and cash equivalents on hand so although they do have more debt than cash and free cash flow I don't think it's an unman ible amount their balance sheet looks relatively healthy to me in terms of their forecast so as you can see 2024 is going to be a roughly flat year for them but they should be coming back to EPS growth in 2025 26 and 2027 we will see guys the revisions down for possibly 2025 in next quarter as well moving on to revenue revenue also said to be expanding but definitely not expanding at the rate we had here 21 through 2023 right more of a tapered growth line for Ulta beauty right now that gives them a revenue growth rate per year of about 4.9% for the next couple of years EPS growth rate of about 8.1% this is down from closer to 10% so definitely slowing there as well and slowing on Revenue down from about 6 7% too so moving on in guys they are priced earnings ratio at 340 bucks right now which is their price in the after hours is about a 14.75 this number right here and this number right here is why Warren Buffett bought the stock so you remember what we did on Lululemon we saw that the price to earnings ratio was some of the lowest that it had in uh the company's prior history history ala Beauty largely the same take a look at this PE ratio on a trailing basis let alone a forward basis right forward basis is roughly around the same thing 14.75 on a trailing basis though 14 price to earnings ratio pretty much lower than it's ever been in the company's history so there is value at these current levels here guys because the earnings per share although it's come slightly down it is not crashing right so there is still a lot of value to be had in this company as a whole the company also boo boosts its EPS artificially by doing BuyBacks as you can see clear buyback Trend since the start of 2016 very nice curve in terms of uh just buying back a bunch of shares and improving that EPS in an artificial fashion and then the second reason that Warren Buffett bought this company most likely is the free cash flow yield free cash flow yields Warren Buffett always looks for uh between 3 and a half to about 5% in free cash flow yield so at 5.1% that is usually very good right usually for more established companies like Al Beauty like Microsoft companies that have been around for at least about 20 years time 15 20 years a free Castle yield of about 3.5 to 5% is quite good now obviously the lower the stock goes the higher this ratio uh increases right so when it's above 5% it's usually a good deal couple that with the fact that we are at a relatively low well actually historical low price to earnings ratio both trailing and forward that is why there is some definite value in this company and most likely why Warren Buffett picked up some shares now if you want to trade trade this one with Buffett obviously guys he is a much better longer term uh investor than me right you know his uh returns are some of the best in the game and he's been doing it since the 1960s pretty much so there's nothing I can say to critique Warren Buffett's decision it is good value down here right and I don't doubt that Ulta beauty is going to be able to recover over the medium to long term but is this a company that I want to own in the next 5 to 10 years well arguably they're a very good retailer but do they actually have a are they a worldwide known company right with International exposure and very difficult business model to replicate to be quite Frank with you probably not right so probably Warren Buffett for him this one is more of a trade we know that Warren Buffett has two styles of Investments that he makes one are companies like Coca-Cola insurance companies some of the banks that he's held some of the petroleum companies he's held uh company like apple too A lot of these companies he holds them from 5 to 10 to 15 to 20 years type of thing right and just let them play out um buy a good company at a great price right so now or buy a great company at a good price right um but now there are there are also some other positions that Warren Buffett does take sometime that are more recovery style trades you may see them him in them for maybe 1 two two and a half up to three years and then he starts slowly getting out of the position I think that's more one of them for uh one of those for him right but we are coming up onto a very large I mean we're almost uh below we're we're nly below this previous area of support now we're really coming down into the lower bound right here I would be interested in this company guys but since I don't believe that the consumer slowdown has really hit the peak of media headlines and the peak of profit margin Crush for these companies I'll be targeting the lower bound of sport down here call me cheap right call me too patient call me too conservative but this is just where I want to play this company right I do have other retailers in my portfolio don't worry about me right if I wanted to play this company specifically I'm going to need a better price I'm going to need to find it at least down possibly in to the 320 all the way down roughly $300 range that is where I would consider playing this company because in my humble opinion the valuations down there get even better and I don't think we're quite quite out of the woods just yet for uh the consumer discretionary spending slow down so that's pretty much everything we had for our earnings today hopefully you appreciated those Recaps now moving on into our technical Indexes analysis portion of the video Let's jump right into the Spy so the Spy pretty much has been doing a whole lot of absolute nothing as you can see they made an attempt to break the high of the range but just unfortunately failed so now are kind of stuck on the Spy right either with the higher bound or the lower bound the one positive thing is that after such a volatile move to the upside right we're consolidating at the top end of the range this is usually a very good thing the last thing you want to do see you last thing you want to see guys is the Bears pull back a ton and then we consolidate over here right it doesn't look the best for continuation of the v-shape recovery but if you have a massive rally and hesitate over here consolidate over here right the Bulls are trying to keep their momentum for an all-time high push alive so we'll see if they can get it done one thing's for sure if they do break the top of the range here guys daily uptrend is now newly underway and we target the alltime high area of resistance 565 however if we break both of these levels to the downside that will be an official daily downtrend under motion and then we will look at potentially some further weekly consolidation weekly consolidation in my opinion could bring us down as low is about 546 all the way down to about 538 this location right here once again we are trying to to step this recovery process so in the event we find ourselves at a double top on the Spy just remember we can have a few bullish patterns right here cup and handle would be one of them so in the event we pull back to the 12 EMA and this green box of support there's most likely going to be some bull sitting there and we could have some very good opportunities to be buying the dip at that point right as of now though just pretty much stuck in a tightening range it is very good however that we have some overall broad market performance right no single sector is contributing to lifting the Spy as it was the case a few months ago where it was only these guys doing all of the work and the rest of the market was doing nothing now at least we have a bit more a bit better breath now let's get into QQ give me a very brief second and let's get into the Q so QQ is down about 15% as you can see not the same setup as the Spy right the qq's are in a confirmed daily downtrend at this point and the daily downtrend is simply continuing so where can we possibly continue this daily downtrend into guys well we're getting very close to my target Zone 464 all the way down about 456 we are possibly looking out for the setup for an inverse head and shoulders and possibly rally thereafter so one of two things is going to happen here guys either we're going to have to find some short-term oversold conditions and then eventually get an engulfing move and reset the daily right or the Bulls can always choose to do it from here on the daily for that guys we need to see a break of today's high they made an attempt at it right they really made an attempt at trying to reverse this give an engulfing move and set into a possible daily uptrend could not get the job done so I will be very patient right here still expecting some further weekly consolidation potentially so that consolidation could maybe take us as I said into this green box 464 down to about 455 that would be an adequate area the Bulls just need to gather a little bit more steam before making a new weekly Trend change attempt so all in all the qq's not looking too bad I wouldn't say that the rally is considerably done right now right gorgeous move and we have not taken back too much of the move as of yet if anything maybe just looking for that Weekly high or low for possible further Trend continuation I will keep my eyes peeled and we will take this one day at a time let the market come to us guys and trust me there is definitely some deals in big Tech right now we're going to get into that in a bit later into the video moving on to XLF right now XLF really carrying the entire weight of the Spy here today fantastic job by then this was pretty much led to the upside by the two names that I've been speaking the most about on the channel Visa Visa you remember guys I've been talking about it this entire time that it was down here tremendous value very happy that a few members in our uh private Discord were able to get this trade down here and everybody now is having tremendous gain so congratulations to all of you whether you're in the Discord or not whether you just watch the channel congratulations to all of you who were willing to take this trade same thing for MasterCard we've been talking about MasterCard this entire time since the months of June and July and now we get to collect all of those juicy profits on such gorgeous companies so financials looking very good now daily uptrend simply continues at this point as soon as this move tops out going to be looking for a daily higher low anything about 4360 looking for that daily higher low for a possible further Trend continuation where could we maybe pull back into guys this area of Confluence 44 uh where the moving average 12 EMA is sitting right there as well so a little bit of a breakout retest and possibly revisit could be an opportunity in the event we fail and roll over on The Daily just understand the weekly is under is under our control beautiful weekly uptrend we just be looking for a weekly higher low for possible further Trend continuation later after rate Cuts moving on to XLV right now XLV also looking very healthy. 21% to the upside guys this just does not stop right just when you expect it might have a little bit of rollover consolidation nope it just keeps going for even more so this one is looking absolutely fantastic right now daily higher lows were previously right there now that we've put in the new highs we can argue that this whole area right there is the sector of the new daily higher lows I'll put it right about here at about 155 so at this point continuation is underway if we get a little bit of pullback anything above 155 looking for a daily higher low for possible continuation however if the Bulls get a little bit tired which it seems that they may just be getting a tiny little bit tired well then if we do roll over this guys set up for the daily downtrend just once again understand that we have tons of space on the weekly anything at this point above anything above right here 14560 looking for that Weekly higher low for possible further Trend continuation to be opening further position in healthcare myself guys I will be waiting for maybe a retest of this location there's a lot of names in healthcare right now that are pushing alltime highs or breaking Beyond all-time highs right now and I just do not want to chase this sector even though it is outperforming that's just not how I operate and you guys should know that by now if anything we're waiting for the breakout retest and run trades because the Bulls control all of the higher time frames especially the monthly right now moving into SMH right now semiconductors not having the best day at all this index was actually green today by over 1% and gave it all back and more so unfortunately for semiconductors right now your daily downtrend simply continues to be underway right now so at this point guys we are going to start challenging this lower area of support 238 down to about 224 right very unfortunate sell-off by semiconductors led to the downside of course by Nvidia now keep an eye on the weekly guys as long as this daily downtrend continues like this we are going to keep an eye on this weekly retracement size so take a look the size of the bounce was fairly decent right there right right it was about a 618 bounce 618 bounce and now the Bulls are looking to do the following oops my bad the Bulls are looking to do the following looking to reset this into a weekly higher low for possible further Trend continuation so one thing's for sure I do not want to see them lose 225 cannot lose this prior alltime High area of well this used to be you know two iterations back of the all-time high right cannot lose this prior area of support if they lose it guys the Bears will take back way too much and you open the door for either the flush or simply the twostep rollover as well so the 225 area in my opinion is the cannot lose area of support for the Bulls so we will take this one day at a time I'm still very interested in playing a lot of semiconductor names out there at very attractive levels Micron is one of them Micron I love playing Micron at this point we're going to try to play it in the mid 80s uh for some short puts yes I understand we are in a big big weekly downtrend right now but I like the valuation on Micron at these lower levels and especially if we get assigned at the mid 80s the draw down in my opinion is not that bad maybe all the way towards the mid-70s before we get into some really really big levels of support at that point so Micron is one TSM is another one that in the event we drop back to the 150 location I definitely want to start playing that one too if we drop back on asml as well asml any retest of this 850 and Below I'm going to be willing to play asml tremendous location of Prior all-time high resistance should be new found support for the stock so $850 all the way down to about $800 even sub 800 this whole about $100 range is a nice juicy area to be picking up some asml stock a few other ones that we're going to be looking at of course we cover them later anyways but Invidia I like it right 105 down to 95 that's my desired Target location for NVIDIA AMD as well AMD down to uh you know 135 that on 123 not going to touch arm to be uh quite honest with you guys I just do not like the valuation at this point even at the lower 125s just don't like the valuation I love the company but I do not like the valuation in this current market right now where semiconductors are slightly out of favor and the other one that I'm not going to play here guys is smci I know smci is absolutely crushed right now but I just do not think that this company has a competitive advantage or a significant Moe even though their valuation is significantly significantly below the industry um the industry averages right now I just don't think this company is a good long-term bet and can just continue to get eroded over the short term guys especially since other companies have now been coming out and saying because smci is not giving enough output to the industry they are searching for competitors in something like an hpq or maybe even Dell and even Google is starting to make its own server racks so this company's competitive lead that they've had for now the past two years is very very very quickly eroding so that's why I'm not going to play smci unfortunately in my humble opinion I hate to say this guys I really do think that this company has pretty much topped out for for you know possibly years and years and years and years at this point so moving down further guys let's jump into our Dow Jones to wrap it up so the Dow Jones right here Dow Jones up about 0.59% pretty good performance by the Dow Jones All Things Considered right while the rest of the markets pulled back this one was fine so the Dow Jones not looking too bad right here beautiful daily uptrend as of currently still just hunting for the all-time high push follow through which we got a little bit of today in the event guys we lose today uh yesterday's lows that would be losing the daily up up Trend we might just be looking for some consolidation why well because the Dow Jones has ran four big green weeks in a row in the event we do start consolidating guys just keep in mind looking for the weekly higher low for possible Trend continuation so the Dow Jones is looking very very very good right now guys even you got a nice weekly macd cross so we may not consolidate by too much before really putting in an extra leg higher just again once goes to show guys the rotation from Tech to value is really Omni omnipresent right now in the market marketplace now moving on further here guys let's move into big Tech Nam shall we so moving on to Apple Apple down about 0.59% or sorry that's AMD Apple down Apple app up of course Apple down right that that there I knew there was something wrong when I started that sentence if Apple was actually down for a change in the past month of trading now moving into apple apple up about AAPL 1.46% handling it better than most and this is what we were saying right this is exactly what the S&P was doing you guys remember that chart from the S&P right exact same setup when you have a consolidation range at the top end of a move usually the move does trigger a lean or a bias to be bullish right so moving on in that is exactly what happened on Apple as you can see break to the upside so now apple back into a nice daily uptrend pretty much as soon as this move is topped out because maybe they last for more than one day targeting alltime high resistance of 236 as soon as this move tops out looking for a daily higher low for possible further Trend continuation I would like to see apple put a little bit more space between us and this resistance that we just broke through right couple more candles then maybe pull back into it use it as support that will be the best or most pretty price action the one thing you don't want to see guys is look back below and break down below this range that would all but guarantee that we're heading into big big big weekly consolidation that would probably take us down into the 220 to about 2115 levels which is what I'm waiting for on Apple very very tough for me to play it up here even for a breakout here guys it's just the valuation concerns for me on Apple are just too much for me to commit any size ible position to Apple I mean of course we can make some you know one 2 3 Day swing trades all the way through alltime highs with the stops below here at our targets all the way up here but then again it's kind of a onetoone trade at the current time right just giving you guys my my trade logic where our stop loss is right there and the tank profit is at the all-time highs as you can possibly see from this chart right here the risk reward ratio is a 1.12 it's almost par I'm not in the business of taking those trades guys especially close to the all-time highs which is why Apple need to be a little bit more patient with it yes the Bulls are in complete control right now completely agree but I need some better prices if I'm to play Apple I would like to see at least a weekly revisit of these lower levels down here which may free up some lower strikes for all of us who are writing options below the 207 205 preferably as low as 200 but we might not get it for a little bit of a while but apple right now looking pretty good right this is where you have three different ratings right you have a buy you have a hold and you have a sell for me apple right now is just a hold so moving into AMD give me another quick second AMD AMD down about 0.59% here today guys not the best day for AMD at one point they were green uh considerably green right over about 1% in the morning and then sacrificed all of those gains so unfortunately amd's consolidation at this point simply continues after getting rejected by our big big big zone of resistance here 162 down about 154 Bulls could not keep it up daily downtrend is now underway and we are probably looking to move into this zone of support which currently is about 142 all the way down to about 12 7 fairly wide range I know but then again we do have a first line of defense that's sitting right here at about the 1375 big resistance stopped the market temporarily and then we had earnings and blasted through it you can see how often this level was resistance too right so very much um a challenge level for now so that 137 is going to be the next area of support I mean at this point guys we are starting to give back a little bit much of the weekly move we'd like to see AMD really start kicking in for defense around that 137 right cuz we know the size of the the bounce although good at a 618 retracement is not the best right it's not an 80% we didn't make it above this area of resistance to really be able to use it as support either right so now the Bulls will have to play very good defense down here if we do start retesting this 137 135 range that being said the further we start dropping on AMD the better prices we unlock if we're selling options I will be interested over the next few week of selling options possibly below the $130 Mark if we can get that pricing that is where the valuation of AMD is really a no-brainer in my humble opinion just keep in mind with AMD guys I know it kind of sucks I know it's kind of done nothing since the month of February pretty much and now we've even given back you know a lot of the year-to DAT gains but just keep in mind guys the true growth for this company as I've said a few times on the channel so far comes in 2025 so if you're invested in this company because you think there'll be a second close competitor to nvidia's Data Center ramp well you have to give that line of business a a chance to actually scale and ramp and that scale and ramp comes in 2025 you can obviously see the big impact it's going to have on EPs and the big impact it's also going to have on their revenues so if we're a long-term investor and our thesis is data center competition to Nvidia well we need to give this stock enough time to uh really you know fulfill at least that thesis and see how it plays out right and that's going to be 2025 and 2026 the valuation right now 145 very very cheap in light of that future growth so I like it moving on to Amazon right now Amazon up about 77% another AMZN good day for Amazon um so in this in this case guys Amazon is still looking for the same thing right gorgeous daily move up looking for the daily higher lows we're trying to possibly establish it right here at the 200 day moving average now keep in mind guys in the event we are not able to push this daily uptrend High into possibly this earnings candle right here the 185 and maybe we just roll over because big Tech remains weak just keep in mind what are we looking for here guys looking for a weekly higher low setup for possible possible weekly Trend recapture by the Bulls take a look at this we did have a very good bounce a 618 retracement it does give the Bulls a chance to be able to revert this on the weekly right keep in mind Amazon as well so this box somehow moved but keep in mind we are in a very very big hotly contested area of support right now which is pretty much your 174 down to about 160 so I really really like Amazon down here in the lower 160 range in the event we continue falling guys this will be a location where I'll be heavily looking into uh leap call contracts on Amazon if anything a cons discretionary spend uh spending recession may just lead people to shop even more for promotional items on Amazon uh their Amazon video segment is doing very well AWS continues to be a leader in the industry with very very strong Crow uh Cloud growth and Amazon's free cash flow and profit margins are going to be the best they've ever been in the company's history this year and next year moving forward too so everything is a green light for me on this company I'm just trying to be a little bit more greedy with my pricing here guys which is why I say if we revisit probably the mid 165s I'll probably be looking for some short-dated call options maybe 3 4 months out but I'll probably even be shopping for um some 24 month maybe a year and a half 24mth call options on this stock too love this level great company as a whole moving on to Google so Google also not looking too bad today down about 67% now Google has not had the best bounce GOOG amongst all of their peers take a look at this weekly bounce right the weekly bounce on Google was shameful to say the least right we expect better from Google but unfortunately they've been bogged down by a few uh Department of Justice headlines and stuff like that so the bounce size was only about 38.2% not the best bounce right now and now we have unfortunately recaptured the daily downtrend to the Bears so only a few lines of Defense left for the Bulls right now guys and it all starts at this 200 day moving average around the 159 level all the big horizontal support is there as well in the event guys we flush through this location and contined this weekly downtrend we're coming up onto arguably one of the best supports in recent history prior all time highs was an a contested area here in the month of January 2 if we pull back into this location guys it is a Nob brainer buy for me on Google that would be down from the all-time highs 20 to 25% for a company that is trading at a very very very attractive valuation we haven't done it again uh since 180 but this should this PEG ratio should be roughly around the 1.2 level right now 1.25 perhaps which is an extremely attractive valuation for the company right nothing has changed in the company's fundamentals since up here it's just overall Market rotation right the valuation is still very very attractive which is why I say low 160s is still an area which I want to trade it at because I do feel the maximum draw down is only all the way down to here so I'm playing it here currently and I will play it down there some more hopefully that's helpful now moving into Meta Meta up META about 28% as well and meta just still struggling at the all-time highs right now right clear as day struggled tried to break through these alltime highs one two three four and five times and could not get it done so in the event meta has now lost the daily uptrend and in the event they roll over into the daily downtrend getting rejected from this resistance area once again well daily downtrend will be underway just be looking for a weekly higher low for possible further Trend continuation if we can maybe retest the lower $500 range that's going to free up some short put options or some put credit spreads all the way down here in this location here the only time I would start playing calls again on meta something like that is if they really pull back harder all the way back down to 475 465 because then at least we have more recent larger weekly support areas to really be basing our trade off of so one of two things for call options on meta for me either we have to revisit this lower area because it gives us a better defined stop- loss with our higher time frames or the infamous breakout retest the all-time highs that is when I'm going to be going for some call options too because then the stops can go right below here and then we're targeting pretty much expansion all the way through 600 So Meta not looking too bad right now but definitely the Bulls are struggling at the alltime highs we'll keep an eye on this one day at a time all right now moving on to Microsoft Microsoft up about 61% here today not too bad at all for uh the MSFT company but Microsoft at one point guys was up almost 2% before they gave it all back so red candle on a Green Day for Microsoft very unfortunate for them I was looking forward to their uh push attempt right back in this location unfortunately just probably setting a lower high now in the event that we roll over here guys and break 40729 that would be daily downtrend confirmed for Microsoft and we would just be looking for the extension of weekly consolidation keep an eye on the size of the bounce for Microsoft guys Microsoft as well similar to Google did not have the size of the bounce that some of their peers had only a 50% bounce that is not the best it gives the Bulls a chance to be able to reset into a possible weekly uptrend but it does not give them as better as best of a chance as if they possibly put in a 618 or a 782 move get above this resistance and then use it as support right this whole level right there so right now we're going to be counting on these lower Bulls right here 403 down about 395 which is also the area that I want to be selling options on Microsoft in this is such a solid level of support here guys since all the way back in January and the company's fundamentals are arguably better than they were back in the month of January right here no problems at all for the business no red flags the company is the exact same company as they were at 470 so when we are down so significantly on Microsoft right now 11% and if we we come all the way back down here 14 16% screaming bu opportunity for me on Microsoft for so for some call option trades and long um long trades like that probably looking for 405 or better going to try to be a little bit greedy a little bit below this 200 day moving average and for any short put plays or put credit spread plays a lot of them are already open on a weekly basis right now 395 down to about 385 is what I'm targeting we we on to Netflix NFLX right now Netflix not looking too bad 1.26% to the upside really holding a very tight accumulation rate range at the tops right very very tight this does look like a bull flag we are consolidating arguably above our most recent area of resistance which is now acting as slight support for the Bulls Above This 12 EMA as well I would not be surprised if Netflix does just bull flag this and pushes on further same concept as apple and the Spy right consolidation at the top end of the move is the best excuse me best case scenario for any Bulls in this stock right now and on the weekly as well the weekly is looking very very very good but in the event that we do fail this location break these lows and end up in a daily downtrend what are we looking for once again looking for a possible just a higher low on the weekly for possible further Trend continuation here guys that would look like a very good setup if we come back down here 653 to 633 I will be looking to pick up some Netflix to be able to ride it back into the all-time highs this company looking very very very strong right now moving into Nvidia right now so Nvidia down about 6.38 down a lot more than they open this NVDA morning guys Nvidia hesitated around a better part of the morning before really falling off a cliff at the two p.m. Mark and then hesitating the rest of the day right very very strange day today as a whole but we did feel pretty much um most of the Gap that was set pretty much in the uh after hours market right there so that is at least a positive point for the company now we are coming up into a crucial level of support right down here which is about the 114 lose 114 and you lose some very very critical prior weekly support for the company right and unfortunately right now what are we going to be looking for here guys looking for a weekly higher low for possible possible possible further Trend continuation right now but if we want to have you know High probabilities of that Trend continuation they need to put a stop right here because if you give back too much of the move guys you know what ends up happening the best case scenario is a tightening range the worst case scenario of course is a roll over into a weekly downtrend but Nvidia can do this sometimes right Nvidia can sometimes just consolidate in the markets for a very extended period of time tightening range and then eventually have some expansion when it catches up with its fundamental I think this is a problem right now guys and as I was saying pretty much in yesterday's video the biggest problem with Nvidia right now is itself it is the victim of its own success unfortunately for the company right now it's just put up such high numbers in the past two years that anything under completely ridiculous earnings guidance is not going to move the needle that much right it gets incrementally more difficult to keep um to keep beating and beating and beating by 20% 30% on the estimates right so now Nvidia is coming into more normalized territory which is why I say it's kind of the victim of its own success right so it's maybe going to need some time right now to grow into its valuation I would not be opposed to seeing some longer form consolidation if anything it may just be healthy for this stock right now we will keep it stay we'll take it one day at a time of course but I'm more interested in playing Nvidia down here 105 all the way down about 95 I think the valuation is better down there and I also do believe that the support level is a little bit stronger than it is necessarily up here as well so going to be looking for those levels twoo just keep in mind guys Nvidia on the monthly has been overbought for so long so a few more months of consolidation guys would do Wonder for wonders for this valuation and for the price action too moving into Tesla right now Tesla up about 26% not TSLA the greatest stay for Tesla but at least they weren't down 3 4% right so as a whole right this was a nice daily uptrend for Tesla as you can see right here daily uptrend and unfortunately we lost the Daily uptrend Now into a daily downtrend so at that point we know that we are in for weekly consolidation right we were looking for how high this move could get and since it was a relatively you know muted bounce if I can say the least 50% 50% is okay but it's not a 618 and it's not a 786 but the fact here guys that we gave back right we gave back all of this pre uh earnings runup momentum after deliveries and after the robo taxi announcement at this point in my humble opinion guys this is probably going to be dead money uh until they release their next deliveries or until they have their um their new uh Robo taxi event in the midpoint of October right there's really not many bullish catalysts yet for Tesla I know we're getting rate Cuts in September but keep in mind for rate cuts to actually stimulate demand for Big Ticket purchases such as cars it's going to take a very long time right uh you know financing rates on vehicles right now are between 7 to 8% so let's say the FED Cuts interest rates by a whole percentage points by the end of the year right well those car financing rates still go to about 5 6% a few years ago they used to be 2% right 2 2 and a half% still a bit expensive for most people out there so I do believe that this one may just be relegated to at best a tightening range at worst a loss of the weekly uptrend into downtrend I will be waiting to play this one a bit more aggressively down here but for the time being it's kind of just in the middle kind of in no man's land right here so I need to wait for some better prices I'd probably be targeting roughly uh you know 180 and Below to really be safe for PLTR riding options and now lastly paler guys paler also with a fairly decent day up about 2.11% on the day but giving back a lot of those gains as you can see right here paler 1 point was up over 4 and 1 12% before retracing so at this point guys one of two things is possible either this was the daily higher low and we are going to go for the continuation of the trend expansion which could take us possibly into the $35 $36 level which is very close to the all-time highs however I don't really like the shape of this daily candle in the event we were to break yesterday's lows here guys that would be your lower high as set lower low daily downtrend and then we know that Weekly consolidation is possibly further in motion at that that point where are we looking for weekly consolidation here guys right probably looking for the $29 to $28 that is the area that we broke uh we Mo recently broke out of but it was huge resistance back in 2020 and 2021 so possibly just looking for a retest of that zone which would maybe free up some strikes if we're selling options all the way down here 27 to about $26 I like that level and there may even be an opportunity for a cheeky long with a relatively tight stop- loss if we do pull down uh into this location right we set some lows have a nice bounce and try something like this formation then at least we have some shorter term stop- loss levels to be basing our trades off of for that potential current rally um continuation right so paler not looking the worst but I'm still seeing a bit more patient on this one so that's pretty much everything guys that we had in today's video hopefully you enjoyed that tomorrow pretty much we only have the PC inflation report I do not think that it's going to be moving the market so much uh over the course of the day tomorrow a couple more things such as personal income and personal spending I don't think that those will move the needle that much either unless are really really really terrible these have kind of been down uh well rather not personal income but personal spending has been ever so slightly retracing and Contracting over the last 5 six months we know the trend is there so I'm not really expecting any large Market moving events from there but we will just see how tomorrow happens and tomorrow of course guys we have a half day because it's going to be a long weekend for the markets as a whole so hopefully you guys are able to enjoy the shorter form half day tomorrow if you enjoyed the video guys consider dropping a like would really appreciate it for the growth of the channel also consider subscribing to the channel if you're new we'd love to have you back here we do these videos every Monday to Friday after the close and as usual guys if you have any questions at all feel free to leave them down below in the comments whether you want me to look at a stock some technical analysis maybe an options play that you want a second opinion on maybe some macro discussion about the economy anything you want guys I am all ears and I usually answer you back in the in the next 24 hours and of course as per usual guys if you want to join our private Discord and trade with me live in the morning Monday through Friday for our private Market live streams have all of my trades all throughout the day live have exclusive content and be in the chat room all day every day with us guys definitely feel free to click that link Down Below in the description for more details on that Discord server so take care guys I'll see you tomorrow after the close and peace