Predicting K-State’s Football Record in 2024

what is going on guys it is Joe back again talking about the Kansas State Wildcats and in today's video if you didn't see the thumbnail for some reason we are talking about the 2024 football schedule it's officially out we've got times matchups we've got opponents we've got everything ready to go and I'm going to give you my season prediction way too early style cuz that's the way to go now before we get into my season prediction let me remind you if you like K Athletics this channel is the place for you be sure and consider subscribing so you never miss one of my videos it'll pop up in your feed it's entirely free and it takes about 8 seconds at of your time it does helped me out immensely and I appreciate being able to build this tribe of kstate fans one at a time having people get in here and give me their thoughts and feedback on videos so if that sounds like something you're interested in be sure and consider doing it no worries if not also just a quick piece of advice try Manhattan Brewing Company beer folks it is the best in the world I know things aren't going great on the basketball side of things right now they'll be all right you're four and four in the best league in America go get yourself a Tang party wake yourself up with a tank party maybe not a 7: a.m. tank party but you know get yourself after some Manhattan bring company beer cuz they have some delicious stuff it is great A lot of theme nights a lot of fun things happening during the year this video is sponsored by Manhattan Brewing Company and we appreciate them for doing so but guys let's start here with the schedule released now I know at face value this isn't the easiest schedule you've ever seen however it is absolutely winnable now before I give you my exact prediction let me just quick shout out my Guy Brian Clinton over at Heartland college sports wrote A Killer story shout out Brian love that dude to death and he highlighted which teams in the Big 12 have the three easiest schedules and which have the three hardest K State checked in as his number two team on teams with the easiest schedules let me explain why because I know that that might be shocking at face value to see let me walk through this Brian laid a great foundation for this story basically what we did is we did Power Rankings earlier in the season he also addited a great algorithm that factored in you know coaching changes players leaving in the transfer portal additions different things like that to give you an updated look at the power rankings for the 2024 season Brian knocked it out of the park there shout out Brian he then calculated all right so through the power rankings 1 through 16 where does your average opponent list at so if it was you know an average opponent of third or better that's likely the hardest schedule that you're going to get if it's an average opponent of like 10th 11th or 12th that's not as hard as the other just to put a perspective out there on that he also looked into the average Road opponent average Big 12 opponent and the non-conference strength of schedule and rank them 1 through 16 so there's a lot of work and stuff involved in this let me read you Brian's thoughts Brian listed the average Big 12 opponent for K State as 9.67 so that would be an average placement in the power rankings through 1 through 16 roughly about the 10 spot the nine or 10 spot that's the average Big 12 opponent we're going to face this season that's 15th easiest in the league if you want to go off that average alone there's one team that's easier and I think that was KU off the top of my head then we look at the average Road opponent Brian has that listed at 10.2 that's tied for 13th in the league so as we're going on the road we're playing people that are ranking about the 10 spot in Big 12 standings or in Big 12 Power Rankings I should say he also added up our non-conference strength the schedule which obviously immediately you'd be like oh that's pretty tough he ranked us in at eighth I agree with with that I don't think it's the most impossible unwinable schedule but I think it is still a challenge and I'll explain to you my thoughts on each of those games as we go through but this is where Brian listed let me just read you his thoughts Chris kman has K State churning out wins just as his predecessor did before him going 19 and 18 over the past two seasons it's 11 and five in Big 12 Play K State has finished 14th and 18th respectively in 2024 the winning should continue as K State has managed a schedule that is nearly as favorable as their instate Rivals referring to KU who was the number one team the non schedule of UT Martin at two lane and verse Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack of Big 12 teams and should be manageable ahead of the conference opener at BYU the wildcat's hardest game of the season comes against Oklahoma State but at least they get the pokes in Manhattan and OSU will be coming off a game against Utah important to note after that kstate should be favored in every game the rest of the way out outside of perhaps the finale at Iowa State after the Buy in week six the Wildcats travel to Colorado and West Virginia before hosting Kansas in week nine in week 10 they go to Houston followed by another Buy in the final three games of the season are vers Arizona vers Cincinnati and a game on the road in ases shout out to Brian man absolutely knocked out of the park let me run you through our schedule I'll run it through you real quick and I'll give you my immediate thoughts on win losses what's going to happen what's to focus on what's not first game it's a home game against UT Martin That's the Skyhawks in Manhattan it's one of those you know non-conference games you don't look at and be like oh no what's happening speaking of games where you look at and say oh no what's happening K State then heads to to Lane to take on the Green Wave that's on September 7th there's some coaching changes so we'll talk about that a little later in the video then you come back to Manhattan you host Arizona either September 13th or 14th whether it be a Friday or Saturday game it's still up in the air my guess is that's going to be a Friday game if you have power five football and the options between Friday or Saturday considering the numbers of what Kansas and Illinois did last year it's probably going to be a Friday night game so something to follow on that then they open up Big 12 play on the road against BYU that game's in Provo in the mountains one of the most scenic views in all the big 12 countries so a fun game there on the 21st then you come back and you host Oklahoma State at home September 28th take the road to Colorado you play two back-to-back Road games against the Colorado Buffalo and then West Virginia October 19th before coming back home to take Kansas on in Manhattan the final four games of the Season you go at Houston on November 2nd then you host back-to-back home games against Arizona State and Cincinnati before rounding out the season against Iowa State in Ames November 30th that's our straight look at the schedule here now my thoughts are as follows let me start by going one at a time UT UT Martin I'm not going you know I'm not even going to chalk that up as a situ like that's a that's a get right tuneup you know get the fans build build the hype like that's not really a situation where you look at that game and say this is a loss or this is a potential loss not really that case so case they'll be favored by 22 points in that game I don't know what the line was for Simo I think it was 20 and a half it'll be something like that UT Martin I'm not worried about that going on the road to tane now I know Chris kman has a habit of losing games where we shouldn't lose in non-conference play yes tan has beaten Us in the past in non con they're one of the teams that has beaten us yes you're going to their Stadium they're good they're a good team they've got good players they actually beat us out in terms of recruiting for a couple of dudes I don't worry about tan the same way that I did because obviously you lose Willie Fritz to Houston that's a big loss I know that people are like well they'll still be a good talented team they will be but I think it's going to take more time than two weeks you know if you play them at the end of the season it's a drastically different situation than playing them week two so I know that's not how conference play works for the Big 12 but uh to Lane I will Chu that up as a win I think K State goes two and0 even if it's a tough game I know they H I think they hired Troy's head coach and Troy obviously another non-conference team that gave K State fans a bit of a a struggle here this past season but I think K State ends up two and0 pretty comfortably there Arizona Arizona is going to be the game that people Circle I think that Arizona has a shot to beat KDAY for sure but I think you you know losing Jed fish actually I kind of see it as a rallying point I think Brent Brennan if he's the right dude you'll know pretty early on Arizona did manage to keep their quarterback Noah faf who's a stud they kept a couple of receivers did lose some guys on the defense and on the o line so they've got some losses I know Arizona has a shot to beat us but I'm going to be the dude that confidently says we escape the noncon schedule 3 and0 that's going to be a situation we'll have to watch and see but I think K State beats him also I mean just looking at the team and I know it's a different team with Avery Johnson than it is with Will Howard but K State traditionally in Manhattan has been very very hard to beat you know you're averaging 44 points at home this past season and then 31 on the road whatever it worked out to be it's pretty comparable to that on the road at BYU that's not going to be an easy game but also I can't tell you who BYU starting quarterback is right now I think that BYU will be much better I mean maybe not from a talent point of like the roster might not be in a as good of a spot as it was last year but I think they'll know a bit more of what to expect so I I would say that game's going to be closer than a lot of people think but I think K State goes 4 and0 now with this thing there's going to be three games that you look at and say ah that might be a loss ah that might not be a loss Lo whatever the case is Oklahoma State in Manhattan people are raising red flags about that you know obviously they return Alan Bowman for his seventh year of Eligibility you return Ole Gordon you return uh Brennan Presley a couple dudes on the defense as well they're going to be a good squad I would shock OSU up as a win but a very close win nevertheless a lot of these games are going to be decided by what does K State's defense look like because offensively I think we're going to be solid I think DJ gens is going to be running over people I think he's going to be a tough match for a lot of people I think K State starts out 5-0 I know maybe that's a little bit you know Sunshine pumpy over the top but I think it's important to note that this is a different team Avery Johnson is a different era of K State football not saying that last season we lost games because of will Howard and I don't want to make that the narrative but this is a team where it's a young guy momentum you know we're moving in the young guys you've got DJ giddens who should be a top five top three running back in the Big 12 Avery Johnson his ceiling is the highest quarterback of anybody in the Big 12 so I think if you get Avery comfortable if you get him back there the o line Works itself out I don't see OSU as a game where K State loses if you want another example of what how to balance that last season will Howard threw three interceptions against OSU in Still Water it was still a onepoint or excuse me a one possession game down the stretch with K State having multiple chances to win late I don't look at that game and say you know like oh it's will Howard's fault oh it's this person's fault nobody really played great on offense but last season if you throw three picks you have three turnovers one of them being a pick six and it's still a one-score game late I don't know I mean is that a game that we're you know bashing our heads into a wall for drawing I don't think so I think that's a that's a winnable game so I will take K State five and0 to start off uh Colorado is interesting to me I know that Colorado is going to be building the hype train you're playing them week six which realistically is okay I mean I think if you play them you if you open conference player with Colorado that's a lot different than if you play them two or three weeks into the season it's going to depend on their health it's going to depend on how they've rebuilt their line but I think K State wins that game I don't know that they've done quite enough in the portal to really Shock Me for Big 12 play the first season plus I think there is still an element of getting adjusted to life in a new conference I will take K State 6-0 to start things off and I know that's ridiculous but here's where that changes a little bit on the road in Morgantown it's one of those places that's a little cursed I mean to play at I know that uh that that's a situation that you're going to look into and say where's the health of the team there are two Buys in this schedule and they're both coming in good places which I'll talk about here in a second but with West Virginia and I know on paper were a better team than West Virginia I think they're going to be solid but I don't see them really ever getting to that title conversation with Neil Brown I know there were solid team last year but I still have my doubts I would just say that the back-to-back fatigue of Road game Road game going to Morgantown than coming home against Kansas this is in the spot that is like a textbook letdown area you beat Colorado October 12th you go to Morgantown you know next week ku's coming to Manhattan you haven't been home in the better part of a month I mean that's a real issue I would say K State drops her first game of the season in Morgantown before coming back and beating Kansas at home now Kansas is going to be legit don't get me wrong they're a better team than they are in the past I'm not just going to chalk this up as an easy win or anything like that but I think if KU is goingon to have a shot to beat K State one it depends on Jaylen Daniels health I don't know and and like I can't judge Kansas until I know what's happening with their quarterback room I know Jaylen Daniels is coming back it looks from social media and stuff like that but I need to see how healthy he is because right now selling that is like a KU will be a college football playoff title Contender with Jaylen Daniels until Jaylen Daniels is there I'm not going to look at that and say that's an easy win that's a hard loss whatever the case is so I will chalk up K State getting about a 10-point win in Manhattan I think if that gamees in Lawrence it's a different situation but I would say K State wins for the 16th year in a row I think we're at 16 beat Houston not even going to justify that I think Willie Fritz will still be a really good coach at Houston but year one's going to be tough I mean the roster resets going to take some time they'll probably win more games than people anticipate but K State wins that game I mean then you get back-to-back games in Manhattan you've got Arizona State and Cincinnati kind of the same narrative a little bit I think both are fine but neither are really great um it's going to depend who's playing quarterback for Arizona State I know uh that Rashad kid's pretty solid I think he stayed there I'm not sure if he portal or not Cincinnati no idea who their quarterback's going to be if it's Brady lenberg or samage Jones samage Taylor I forget what the kid's name is up the top of my head that they're bringing in so Cincinnati and Arizona I will I will chalk that up as back-to-back wins and then you close out the season in ases I think if you're heading into ases at 10 and one I think you're due for a loss at some point I know that's a let down spot but also I'll be honest I don't think the Big 12 championship game is going to be two one lost teams so I think K State gets in there even with the Lost Iowa State I don't know that we'll lose to Iowa State I think that there's going to be a lot of pissed off energy from our team and I would expect K State to be wanting that game more than most on this schedule I would confidently say nine and three because one of these games will lose for no reason um or at least that's kind of the narrative that people like to go with I think if you make it out of the conference schedule or excuse me out of the non-conference schedule 3- 0 I think you're looking at 10-2 I think if you drop one you're looking at 9 and three so that would be where I rest at my case for now I know the two buys come in great spots and I didn't mention that too much but the team has a Buy in week six so it'd be I think that's before the Colorado game so you go UT Martin tane Arizona BYU OSU by week there then you have to go Colorado West Virginia Kansas Houston then you have a buy to reset refocus you like where the buys are this here but I think I will confidently place my prediction at 10-2 and uh I would not also be surprised if it ends up on the 9 and3 train but it'll be something to follow I'm elevating my expectations because I think Aver Johnson is legit but a lot of this is going to come down the defense you know how how bad do we rebuild how solid are we able to rebuild the secondary we got a lot of young guys playing and less leadership than we've had in the past but I think it's going to come down to you know who's your best pass rusher outside of Brendan M who's your best pass rusher on the other side um and then just leadership I mean Austin Moore is going to be your lead leader but you're going to have a lot of young guys playing in positions like VJ Payne's going to have to be one of your best safeties Maris seagull is going to have to be a veteran leader so there's going to be a lot of that up in the air but I wanted to make this video because I did the same thing last year and I really enjoyed it so be sure to let me know what your predictions are I know this might be a little bit uh a little bit on the positive side in terms of predictions but I think 9 and three 10- two is where I'm going to rest my case I don't see it being eight and4 and I don't see it being like a 12- 0 season unless Avery Johnson's like I mean he's that guy dude he already is that guy but if he's that guy all the time I think that's going to be where you learn so it'll be something to see but guys I wanted to make this video and discuss my thoughts I hope you're all having a wonderful day I will talk to you here soon in the near future with more Kate videos I'm going to try to be on a bit better of a schedule going forward but I appreciate each and every one of you for watching I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day I will talk to you soon go cats