Excess deaths high, covid symptoms mild

what a warm welcome to this talk it's Thursday the 30th of March now I just wanted to record a very brief video today because I've been looking at the Zoe covered symptom tracker information from the Zoe health study that shows that the symptoms from uh covid coronavirus infection are becoming more and more common cold-like but then a notice from the office for National statistics that access deaths for the latest week that we have data from for the United Kingdom are still 9.3 above The Five-Year average and there's a bit of a mismatch here what it means is we're looking for something else for the cause of excess deaths or other causes one or one cause or or probably almost certainly many causes that's what this video is about let's just unpack some of the detail on that now this is the the coverage symptom tracker data here so we see sore throat of people that are diagnosed positively with covid that would have a positive test 59 have a sore throat runny nose 54 block knows 52 percent headache 51 sneezing 50 these are the most common features it's becoming more and more common cold like as time goes on as this is becoming more and more an upper respiratory infection not causing the lower severe problems of the pneumonia anything like as much as we saw before and in fact now um intensive care my colleagues in intensive care aren't really seeing any covered pneumonias now the more seeing exacerbations of existing conditions particularly of course in the elderly and sadly in people that are obese particularly as well but we we notice these are very much common cold symptoms this is the main thing that really struck me that from this data it kind of jumped out at me that these are very common cold type symptoms cough with no phlegm again we can all relate to this so many times I mean I I get I seem to get a bad cold about every I don't know every not three four times a year it seems Seems more but I guess it's maybe three times a year I get a fairly decent gold and we're also familiar with these um so familiar with these symptoms but these of course are covered symptoms now in in March 2023 uh cough sometimes with a phlegm productive calf no phlegm would be an unproductive cough of course unproductive coughs can become productive over time horse voice must legs and pains tiredness altered smell now the altered smell of course or the Lost smell is is a is a general common cold symptom the altered smell is still more of a covered type symptom so it is there there is still some differentiation but again it's becoming more and more a respiratory common cold type features um altered smell dizzy light-headed 19 swollen neck glands 17 Sore Eyes cause very common goldfish very common called chest pain tightness down to 14 thankfully now shortness of breath down to 13 sugar or chills indicating a bit of a fever 13 and actual fever recorded 11 percent so very much common cold type symptoms and yet it's really quite distressing that the excess deaths continue and um like me you may have lost friends or relatives lately um sometimes at a young age these are real human beings that we're we are talking about but let's look at the data from the office of national statistics now of course this data is not perfect but it's it's probably the best we've got at the moment um this is up to the week ending the 17th of March always a bit of a delay with deaths of course estimated number of people testing positive first of all in the UK nearly one and a half million two point six six percent of the population around 1 in 40 people are actually testing positive so this is actually showing that we have a huge amount of positivity 2.6 of the whole population we must all be getting covered I would have thought certainly being exposed to covert several times a year on average um testing positive if we tested everyone perhaps once once or twice a year that kind of order is very endemic now this is everywhere A lot of the time um and we'll we'll be so for the coming decade or two probably we are in periods of endemicity one in 40 people remember this is only dated for one week so this is a lot of people for one week and here we see the numbers in England as an example I mean they're going well they're sort of flatish at the moment either go up and down a bit but again for the most part thankfully not overly perturbing because for most people it's a mild common cold type illness but um weekending the 17th of March 2023 12 133 deaths in the UK okay people die 559 mentioned covered uh coronavirus um covered 19. 4.6 of deaths mentioned it um what what the office of national statistics are actually saying is that 67.3 of these deaths 379 deaths uh had this recorded as the underlying cause of death but as we've already said most of these of course were in the elderly or people with sometimes significant comorbidities but mostly the vast majority in the elderly which of course is it is incredibly sad if people are dying earlier than they would have done already but these are mostly people with elderly people and pre-existing conditions and of course as we age we get more and more conditions this is sometimes unflatteringly called senile multiple pathology because old people can often have many different uh conditions all at once as a as these conditions sort of accumulate through life um so the number of deaths above the five-year average in private homes uh 23 above the average in hospitals 4.6 incredible 23.2 above the five-year average I mean you could say this is good people and more people are dying at home but there's still an awful lot of increased deaths at the same time in hospitals 4.6 Care Homes 4.7 above the five-year average other settings prisons and other institutional settings 6.9 above the average it's registered in the UK um in the week ending the 17th of March 13 000. 683 this is for the UK as a whole 9.3 percent above the five-year average so this is still it's a lot of this is a significant increase on as we'll see in a minute on top of what's happening in other countries on top of what's happened over the past um many many months now one thousand uh 1169 more deaths than the five-year average now the way this is measured by the office of national statistics has changed recently uh this website says it's 2016-19 so that's 16 17 18 19 plus 20 21. um others document or other sources are taking 2022 into account but of course in early 2021 there was a very high amount of excess deaths so this this is actually because there are so many excess deaths in 2021 would expect even fewer deaths at the moment and we're getting more this is the point that again is particularly concerning now we're going to look at the quick look at the graphics that we've been uh we've been showing on this so the green is death's not involved in covid-19 the blue is deaths involved in Carvin 19. and this is the graph we looked at for some time here so we see the excess deaths involving covid-19 and I will be blowing up on this in a minute but what we notice here is the The Five-Year average for weeks one to eight in 2022 and 2023 are affected by this very high number in early 2021. so rightly we would expect this to be lower but would expect this to be lower as well but it's higher let's just zoom in on that for a bit of a Clarity there so it's not surprising that these deaths here are lower than the five-year average because of the 2021 increase but here we're still seeing excess deaths and but remember this is despite the increase in the average in 20 early 2021 which was a significant number as um as we actually saw let's just check on that just to remind ourselves here at this very high peak here should have greatly altered these averages but um as we still see there what we would expect they're not what we would expect um so we'd expect that's to be even lower at the moment tragically they are not and if we actually look at the last few months here so that these are weekly figures so that's ending the 17th of March and we see there's green and blue uh uh all the way all the way through the these many many months now and remember that these blue ones the covid-19 associated desk by no means all of those die from covid-19 many of those died with covid-19 not from covert 19. so this is what struck me it's the mismatch between the common cold symptoms and the amount of people dying and this really does cry out for an explanation questions have been asked in Parliament of course with no satisfactory answers so I just wanted to very briefly last minute just summarize some of my thinking here this is probably multifactorial almost certainly multifactorial excess deaths have occurred around the world so the problem is if this was just in the UK but it's not this is in the UK it's in the states in Canada it's in Australia it's certainly all around European Union countries very very high excess deaths all around the European Union countries what is it that these countries have got in common that could explain this this is just not being adequately interrogated in my view we have to look for these factors you know if people are dying of lung cancer is it because more people are smoking you know there's often we have a cause and effect thing going on here and this is what we need to analyze it's no good just saying well these are correlations we have to look for the cause and effect and that's exactly what happened with lung cancer we found well not not we some brilliant scientist Austin Bradford Hill and uh Boston Brad of Hill and Sir Richard Dole realized the correlation and then other scientists in laboratory work prove that tire and other carcinogens and cigarettes were actually pathologically the cause so the correlation comes first but the work needs to be done to find out what the causative etiology is and um it just doesn't seem to be unfortunately at the moment which is it's really hard to explain this absence of research why aren't the governments around the world sponsoring research on this why isn't there an organized concerted International effort you know we said yesterday wouldn't it be good if we had an international organization which was responsible for looking after World Health that would be analyzing this data that would be ideal wouldn't it you know what what is uh why is this not being adequately studied this is such a serious matter so excess smoke probably multifactual but deaths have occurred around the world let's look for a common um or group of common cause or group of causes that would explain the the tragedy and tragedy is the only word I can think of it may transpire there is a common factor or factors so um give given given that um arguably the current organizations set up in the world too analyze World Health in my viewer not analyzing this adequately then we need to work out an alternative way to do it governments around the world could cooperate they could send liaison officers around the world they could soon coordinate this and do this and maybe the funding that is attributed to some organizations that aren't performing perhaps as well as we would like could be awarded to uh to this project but we need the data and we need it yesterday the day before last year uh that this how long is this going to go on so there you go uh 9.3 percent deaths above the five-year average in the UK and and similar in other countries and uh we're just not getting answers but like me maybe you've suffered bereavements um we do need this answered thank you for watching