Iowa Football Will Be a B1G Contender in 2024 | Season Preview + Prediction

Introduction One Missed Call in 2023 the Iowa football team was one terrible call on a Cooper Dee what would have been and should have been touchdown return in the game against Minnesota one terrible call on that play where the ref mistakenly thought Cooper Dee was calling for a fair catch when he wasn't they were that bad call that one terrible call away from going 11- one in the regular season last year people forget I think just how close Iowa was Iowa was to Greatness last season and nonetheless considering the albatross that Iowa had to deal with at offensive coordinator and we'll get into that in a minute I think Iowa's 10 and2 campaign in 2023 could be considered a success but 10 and two in an appearance in the Big 10 championship game albe it thanks to the big 10's division format is what I believe to be the standard at Iowa football under Kirk fence or at least the bare minimum of what we come to expect from an excellent coach with an excellent track record of punching well above his weight weight class anyone who's familiar with this channel knows that I am an admirer of Iowa football and I think as the game continues to modernize as conferences transform into Super conferences and players become semi-pros with massive nil and Collective deals there's sort of a nostalgic love that I have for everything that Kirk fence Phil Parker and the Iowa football program stand for in sports and in fandom of anything we like to think of Our Heroes as being just like us we attribute traits to them that we like to see in ourselves rarely though is it true however in the case of Kirk fence in the Iowa football program you get just that a rare example of a hardworking Blue Collar team that's not concerned with star ratings and recruiting or nil deals but rather perfecting their craft and earning the accomplishments that come with it so without further Ado this video will be about the 2024 iteration of Kirk ference's Iowa Hawkeyes the sixth video in our way too early preview and prediction Series in which we will go over Iowa's schedule for 2024 do a bit of a deep dive into the rankings and projections of each of their opponents take a look at what Iowa has coming back in terms of talent and coaching for next season highlight one Wild Card whose performance will significantly impact their season and yes at the end I will give my record prediction at the end of this video but first welcome to Darren talk ball I of course am your humble host Darren Graham and don't forget to hit that like button on this video help get it up into the algorithm get more eyes on this channel and help this channel continue to grow we have a goal of 5,000 subscribers by the end of this next season if you haven't become one of the now 2,000 plus people that are now following the channel we recently hit our 2,000 subscriber goal follow along hit that subscribe button and definitely stay tuned for further Big 10 football coverage which we will be giving you guys for as long as this channel is around really but to kick things off in this video first we're going to take a look at Iowa's schedule for 2024 and if Schedule Breakdown you're not familiar in these videos we do this big schedule breakdown in these preview videos and we largely go off of SP plus rankings I know other people have other metrics and rankings that they like to go of I like SP plus I think it's the most accurate projection of where teams are going to finish and that's been borne out in the results over the last few seasons of course you can find SP Plus on ESPN Bill Connelly is the guy who does them and he does a great job over there of course but I think out of all of the Big 10 teams and this is a really interesting thing about Iowa's schedule out of all the Big 10 teams that we have analyzed so far this season I think they have the most misleading schedule considering how successful Iowa was last season and again I haven't mentioned it yet but they did end up on ending the season in 2023 on an unfortunate losing skid they did lose something like 35 to nothing to Tennessee in their bowl game they of course ended the season 10 and four last year but they did I think and I don't want to speak for Iowa fans of course anyone who follows along knows that I'm a Michigan fan but I think that was still a successful season but given how successful they were last season and seeing how many what we perceive as lesser teams in the Big 10 are on their schedule for this next coming season my initial thoughts for the schedule were wow they only really have one big challenge of course at Ohio State in let's see Week 1 two three fours in week six right in the middle kind of hard of the Season there on October 5th but when you get into the numbers you look at where Iowa is ranked at least in terms of SP plus and you look at where their opponents are ranked it's a you get a little bit more information and then you kind of realize how tough this schedule actually is of course Iowa does have a lot of their tougher games at home and we'll get into that in a minute but just for example Iowa plays just four teams ranked 20 or more spots below them in preseason SP plus anyone who follows along knows that I consider there to be like a 20 spot plus or minus window in rankings in which I think if you're matched up with a team that's within that window it's probably going to be a competitive game Iowa only having four games and two of those being out of conference means that I think a lot of their schu is going to be very competitive again just four teams rank 20 or more spots below them in preseason SP plus those teams being Illinois State Troy Michigan State and Northwestern two of which again are out of conference in other words given their talent level and their comparative ranking the conference schedule while looking somewhat easy at first glance will be a bit of a gauntlet for Iowa however there's also reason for optimism here I'm not saying that Iowa is going to go five and six or excuse me six six and six you can't go five and six you'd have to only play 11 games I'm not saying Iowa is going to go six and six next season again as Iowa only has to face one team in Ohio state that is more than 20 spots above them in preseason SP plus if you're facing a team that's more than 20 spots above you in preseason SP plus I consider that to be just about a guaranteed loss outside of some miraculous appalachin State versus Michigan kind of upset you're probably not going to win that game maybe I'm being a little hyperbolic with comparing it to App State but I think you guys know what I'm saying Iowa does again also get the majority of their big games at home though and especially depending on the time of day in which those games are played kenck could be a massive home field advantage for the Hawkeyes of course we all know that kinck stadium is one of the nicest coolest and best venues in all of college sports I think the wave that they do uh to the kids at the hospital is one of the coolest things in all of sports and that crowd especially given the time of day or any time of day that you end up playing there is rockus so the fact that they get Wisconsin Nebraska and Nebraska especially at home and then also games against Washington and Iowa State early in the season at home are a big deal what's more is that Iowa is also playing five teams in the conference with either first or second year head coaches in Washington Michigan State Northwestern Wisconsin UCLA and Nebraska if we're basing this purely on coaching experience I'd certainly give Iowa the advant advantage in all these matchups of course we all know by now Kirk ference is one of the more experienced coaches in all of college football I think I think at this point actually Kirk ference might be the longest 10e coach in all of college football correct me if I'm wrong in the comments and of course feel free to like the video help get it up into the algorithm comment subscribe all that good stuff but to really break it down game by game and to do like a game by game analysis of course they open up the season with I Illinois State at home I don't think that'll be any kind of a challenge for the Iowa Hawkeyes of course we'll get it into into it in a minute in our overview of the team for next season but I was going to return one of the best defenses in college football and I do expect their offense to be improved I don't know if I could say vastly improved but in improved and I think you guys would be interested in seeing intrigued in seeing who I have as my quote unquote wild card for this team next season CU I don't think it'll be the man that you expect week two though they have a big Challenge and the interesting thing is that while Iowa by the way is ranked 26th in those preseason SP plus rankings that I mentioned a minute ago Iowa state is ranked 22nd that's only a four four Place difference of course so Iowa State and Iowa is going to be a big test a big litmus test for Iowa the season of course that's one of the best rivalries in all of college football if you don't agree with me you just don't know college football I'm sorry you're you're just not as uh you're not as uh educated on the sport as we real college football fans no of course I kid you can you have every right to disagree with me but I just think you're wrong because Iowa and Iowa state is one of my favorite games every season but then again I'm a little bit biased Iowa is uh I have to be honest Iowa is like my second favorite uh Big 10 team of course a distant second from my Michigan Wolverines I am a resident of Michigan of course and a Michigan fan but Iowa is uh also near and dear to my heart also have a really great friend who lives in Iowa so that probably helps an Iowa grad actually nonetheless that game against Iowa State early in the season is going to be a huge test and if Iowa can get through that I do think that they will be on their way to a a very successful season because the next week they play Troy in the out of conference they're ranked 63rd in Sp plus I don't see them being too much of a challenge the game against Minnesota kind of a Cooper deene Revenge game although Cooper deene is no longer with Iowa maybe they'll be looking to get some revenge on behalf of Cooper Minnesota's ranked 41st in preseason SP plus only 15 spots below Iowa and that game is at Hunting Bank Stadium and that's where I'm getting into where the schedule is a bit misleading because a lot of these teams that are ranked below them or a little bit above them are all within that kind of 15 to 20 spot window where I think when you're looking at SP plus rankings explicitly it kind of means to me that it's going to be a competitive tyght game of course if you remember last season and I'm sure most of you Iowa fans will Iowa had to tough out a lot of really close games of course their offense was absolutely abysmal but they were winning games like 13 to 10 against Nebraska and 15 to13 or 15 to 12 or something like that to I believe it was Wisconsin feel free to correct me in the comments if I'm wrong on that one but a lot of really tight close games that's kind of what I see on the schedule for this season of course having to travel to Ohio stadium to face the second preseason SP plus ranked Ohio State Buckey I think is pretty much a guaranteed loss Ohio state will be one of the best teams in all of college football next season and I am saying that as a Michigan fan Ohio State 24 spots above Iowa and preseason SP plus then they get Washington at home and while Washington again is one of those teams with a first year head coach in Jed fish Washington is still 29th in preseason SP plus just a three- spot difference it's an interesting rock paper scissors matchup with Washington because Washington likes to throw the ball around a lot this kind of dread fish's thing they're a former Pack 12 team it kind of fits the narrative they kind of the narrative about the Pack 12 teams is is a narrative for a reason they all like to throw the ball around a lot they don't run the ball quite as often and they do play all right to good defense but it's hard to play good defense when you're scoring points at the clip that pack 12 offenses like to score and you don't possess the ball for as long so there's an interesting schematic matchup in that Washington game that I'll be on the lookout for I do think Iowa's style of running the ball and playing great great Defense matches up well against Washington but again that could be another tight game then they do get Michigan state who's 79th in preseason SP plus we did a Michigan State video just last week so you guys can check that out I may if I remember I may bookmark it at some point in this video first year head coach again another pack 12 guy coming into the Big 10 and Jonathan Smith his first season with Aiden Charles there are 53 spots below Iowa first year head coach first year starting quarterback even though that game is in East Ling I do think Iowa can can handle Michigan State especially being a first year quarterback having to face a Phil Parker defense is just a nightmare it's just like Freddy Krueger worst than nightmares imaginable then you face Northwestern who was 55th in preseason SP plus but that's still 29 spots below Iowa that's kind of outside of the window what I think would be a competitive game I don't know if Northwestern will have Northwestern played Iowa tight last season they were one of the tight games down the stretch but I'd still expect Iowa to tough another one out I don't think Northwestern is going to be as good this season as they were last season anyway and then it's really really down to these last four games for Iowa next season because these teams are all again within that 20 spot window in preseason SP plus while UCLA of course is another team with a first year head coach they are 37th in Sp plus you also get a Wisconsin who I kind of skipped over there at first it was 25th just a one- spot difference Wisconsin and Iowa right there then you get Maryland and while they're 45th in Sp plus I think Mike Loxley and crew obviously a great recruiter a lot of Talent on the Maryland team no more Tua tal tagu aola but they do have another fourstar quarterback coming in who could be good we'll see and the game is at SECU stadium in College Park so Iowa does not get their home field advantage for that one so we'll see how that turns out and then closing out the season with Nebraska who is ranked 39th in Sp plus 13 spots below Iowa it's going to be another season I think of Iowa's defense having to carry them and win a lot of tight close competitive games just again looking purely on SP plus projections that's what the data says to me and I know it's not completely accurate data some people critique me sometimes for using these rankings but it's the off season we haven't seen any of these teams play on the field yet it's kind of hard to know exactly what they're going to be outside of speculation and this is the I think this is the best kind of most accurate speculation I can give you guys but this is how the schedule breaks down for Iowa if you ask me now that we've gone over all of Iowa's opponents for 2024 I think Team Overview we need to go over the team itself because we wouldn't be doing our due diligence if we didn't right and I think there's one word that can really summarize this team for 2024 you know I was looking over the ourlads projected depth chart of this team and I almost couldn't believe it and then I remembered I was looking at an Iowa roster there are an insane amount of seniors and graduate seniors and red shirt Juniors on this team I think the entire offense just about especially that offensive line which we'll get into in a minute are all seniors and graduates they're experienced I I I didn't think to share the full depth chart here but case in point again Iowa will be starting or at least as of now I know Spring ball isn't over yet at least projects to start for seniors again along the offensive line and the one player outside of that right tackle Jennings dunker is a red shirt junr at that Iowa will also start a plethora of experienced players of course along both the offense and defense and we haven't even mentioned him yet so far on this video I think it's funny actually that we haven't because I am a Michigan fan graduate Cade mcamera who unfortunately missed the second half of 2023 returns for one more season of course Iowa I think they ended up in a lot of those tight games I know they're offense was abysmal because largely Brian ference's offensive scheme was just garbage can I say that it I I hate to pile on but man oh man it was it was just the most predictable vanilla we're going to run stretch then we're going to run some form of counter and then we're going to run some bootleg play action and it was like first second third down on every drive that's what it looked like it was abysmal and I think I think it could have been a little bit better if you had Cade All Season maybe some of those games down the stretch wouldn't have been so tight of course I'm blanking on his name but the quarterback that you did have down the stretch was not nearly on Cade's level although Kade I think is just merely a a good college quarterback not a great or Elite college quarterback but he's a perfect fit for the Iowa Hawkeyes and again he comes back for next season they did lose Eric all I forgot to put him up in the key departures on the graphic there but they lost Eric all but they have senior tight end Columbus Ohio native and former fourstar recruit Luke Lee who figures to be another in the long line of Iowa tight ends going to the NFL figures to be Cage's number one target next year I think that's safe to say but Iowa will also have experienced leadership at the running back position with the DU of LeSean Williams and Caleb Johnson Caleb Johnson somebody that I think we've all been kind of waiting for for the past few seasons to pop up but I think he could have a breakout year this next year especially with a new offensive coordinator hint hint will get into that in a minute Iowa's offense could be better especially in the Run game and in fact I think it has to be better in the Run game last season Iowa's Run game was abysmal um and you can say all you want about the passing game Iowa's never been a great passing team but when the Run game isn't good that's really bad of course to go over this overview slide I do have pulled up here again last season Iowa went 10-4 and 7-2 in the Big 10 an appearance in the Big 10 championship game where unfortunately thanks to Brian fence's offense they got shot out again they have big games this season as Iowa State at Ohio State Washington Wisconsin and Nebraska I largely think those are the games that are going to determine their season especially those games again against those teams ranked closely right by them in Sp Plus in Washington Wisconsin in Nebraska down the stretch they are of course 26th in preseason SP plus and again one of the more experienced teams in all of college football they're 30th in returning production when a team is in the top 30 in Sp Plus in the top 30 in returning production and look at that Iowa not a terrible recruiting team either and when they recruiting ranking over the past three season as Seasons averages out to be close to the top 30 I think you're going to have a pretty good team but most Iowa fans probably already know that I have been using an article by the way I haven't mentioned this in my preview videos so far I've been using an article from Duck wire where they did a preview of all 18 Big 10 schedules for next season I've been using that for my strength of schedule metric because there's not much out there on strength of schedule yet from what I've seen if you guys have some other resources feel free to share them in the comments but I've been using that duck wire article and I largely agree with a lot of them but I don't know about ranking Iowa's schedule as fifth toughest I think it it's I don't think I don't know if it's quite that tough but again that's where they have it and we have shown through this video so far that excuse me Iowa is going to play probably a lot of close games so maybe that's accurate I'd probably if me personally I probably rank it like seventh or eighth but again that's probably splitting hairs based on all this info based on what we've gone over so far the sp sp plus rankings the rankings of the teams on their schedule what Iowa has coming back and what they have lost I think the floor for this team honestly with all the talent that they do have and being one of the more experienced teams in college football I think their floor is N9 and three I know that might be crazy to say for some of you I did a poll by the way and only about 30 or 40 people voted on it but I did a poll on my channel the other day asking people what they thought of the Iowa Hawkeyes prospects for 20124 and the majority of them said 8 and four are worse and I just can't see that I think a lot of people are making the mistake that because the Big 10 West is no longer a thing Iowa is going to get eaten up by the bigger schools cuz it appears like they have a slightly tougher schedule but we've gone over the schedule it doesn't it's not actually too tough for them especially considering how great Phil Parker's defenses are I really think the absolute floor for them is N9 and three that could be losing that Iowa State game early in the season losing it's Ohio State and losing one other game of like Washington Wisconsin or Nebraska maybe the floor should be 8 and4 now that I think about it because I could see them losing to was Wisconsin and Nebraska but also now that I think of it that would be crazy to think because they get both of those games again at home in kinnick stadium is a big big home field advantage and I would expect at least one of those games to be at night if you're playing Iowa at night in a year that they have a really great defense and even a competent offense forget about it and yes you're not reading that wrong Iowa's ceiling to me is 11- one and that's largely based on the defense again the defense finds itself in a similar promising spot to the team at large we forget I think largely as college football fans Iowa fans probably don't forget this but that unit was seventh overall in yards per game given up and fourth in scoring last year and now they return eight yes eight seniors next year and of course in the key Edition SL retentions I have offensive coordinator Tim Lester who we'll get into in a minute here defensive back is Sebastian Castro they have his uh position on ourlads listed as some interesting name if you're an Iowa fan fill me in on exactly what it seems like some sort of hybrid safety defensive back position Sebastian Castro and Quinn schy though come back for their senior Seasons believe one of them is actually a graduate senior very very experienced guys and they're two of the best players at their respective positions in all of the country there's nothing that tells me even with the absence of Cooper Dee that this isn't going to be one of the best defenses in the country next season and it's going to be really tough considering the competition they're playing for any teams that they play outside of maybe a Jed fish highflying Washington offense or an Iowa State offense or Ohio State to even score points on them and you can say Wisconsin and Nebraska would be better next season but last season they really struggled against Iowa's defense so with the same coaches and largely the same Personnel I know Nebraska and Wisconsin have new quarterbacks coming in and things like that but we'll see Iowa's kind of have their number in recent seasons and Iowa's defense is once again it's going to be dominant because I honestly really think Phil Parker is the best defensive coordinator in college football in case you can't tell I am very high on Iowa as a whole I do really like Iowa but I'm also trying to be as objective as possible here I just just think based on the schedule and based on the talent of the respective teams are playing of course that's a little redundant but anyway I think the floor is 9 and three and I think the ceiling is 11 and one but New Offensive Coordinator Tim Lester whether they can make that ceiling whether they can reach all of their goals really hinges on one guy in particular and I don't think it's the guy a lot of you probably thought that I would mention I think a lot of you probably thought I'd mention Kade McNary here but we're going to get into Tim Le who comes in as Iowa's new offensive coordinator replacing a I I hate to be too mean but seat filler in Brian ference a guy who was Man merely just filling a role it seemed like Kirk fence's decision to make his son offensive coordinator may have been one of the worst decisions of his coaching career if you think about it these past two or three I think I think Brian ference was the offensive coordinator for three seasons especially in like 2021 people forget in 2021 if I'm remembering right my memory serves me right and I do have a toddler in case you haven't heard him occasionally in the background here who really affects your memory by the way when you have kids it really slopes off not to digress too much but if I'm remembering right back in 2021 Iowa was ranked like second in the country for a few weeks early in 2021 largely because of that defense cu the offense couldn't do anything and if Iowa merely had a competent offense I think they could have done a lot over the past few seasons but that's what they may have going forward and I think that's the big hope and promise for the Iowa Hawkeyes in 2024 Tim Lester of course was an offensive analyst for Green Bay last season but before that he coached at Western Michigan my local school here in Grand Rapids where I am from for six seasons he ended up winning 37 games in his tenure and the team consistently went to bowl games Western Michigan interestingly enough also was in the top 35 of total offense each season that's something that Brian fence couldn't say from 2018 to 2021 under his watch he led Caleb ellerby by the way to one of Western's best quarterback quarterback performances ever in 2020 finishing as one of the best passers in the country in terms of qbr so that's a lot of that's a lot to say that Tim Lester I think is a competent offensive coach and he has the resume to show it of course before he was the head coach at Western he was a quarterback's coach at Purdue where he mentored a young David blow to a David blow or David Blau I can't remember either way correct me in the comments I'm sure you will to a 3,300 yard 30 touchdown year in 2016 and I think if you're Iowa if you can get a quarterback anywhere near that kind of performance you're going to have a great year but I think these are the big question marks and the things that Tim Lester needs to do next season in order to fill his to meet his standards and meet their goals as a team he needs to get more out of Cade mcnamer than what we've seen uh what we saw in 2023 before the injury a lot of people had didn't I'm sure a lot of people in the Iowa circles but a lot of people in college football circles at large didn't really get to touch on the fact that Cade M Mara was not playing at a very great level even before the injury but Brian ference's offense what what are we we can't expect too much out of a guy who calls games as if he was like a a 10-year-old playing Madden and I think that's honestly an insult to 10-year-olds playing Madden out there because even they know how to properly line up a play action pass will he be more creative than Brian by the way speaking of that's another question mark I have on my script here and can he improve the ground game Iowa Cade mcamera after having seen him at Michigan needs a really great ground game to be effective as a quarterback and Iowa was not particularly great at running the ball in 2023 like at all they ranked 100 seventh in the country in rushing yards per game in 2023 if he can do all that if he can get a little bit more out of Cade if he can be more creative and if you can get more out of the ground game which honestly I think all those three things are tied together they being good at any one thing being more creative will get more out of CR Cade and also more out of the Run game they all help each other out right if you can do all three of those things I think Tim Lester will be at least competent and meet Iowa's goals for next season and I really do think that they could go 11- one because they're going to have one of the best Prediction Time defenses in all of the country they got one of the more experienced teams in all the country the most experienced coach in all the country and now they have an offensive coordinator that actually knows how to put together a Playbook but my ultimate prediction for Iowa to end this video off and again thank you for watching my ultimate prediction for the Iowa Hawkeyes is I think they are going to go 10- two I don't think they're going to quite meet that 11-1 threshold because that again there are just too many teams on their schedule that are closely ranked closely matched with them in terms of talent I do think they'll outmuscle a lot of teams Kirk ference is a Wy Fox he can win a lot of tight games basically on his own with great coaching calls in game not always the best coaching calls will admit but he can outsmart most other college head football coaches just purely based on his experience 10 and two they could easily end up losing I could easily see them end up losing that game early in the season against Iowa State as they're still trying to get their offense their new offense figured out they'll lose that game against Ohio State and then I do think that they will end up end off the season with wins largely against all of those teams with either first or second year head coaches again that's a big advantage that Iowa will have and they will have most of their tough games down the stretch at home so that's going to wrap this video up thank you guys so much again for watching I appreciate it greatly we've already met our 2024 goal of hitting 2,000 subscribers that was my goal for the end of 2024 for the end of the season in 2024 at least so that's that was that was awesome to see and if you haven't subscribed already please do if I can mention one other thing before we really end this video off you can also become a member of the channel and once we get enough members we will be doing members only live streams and I will have members only content out for you where we really dive deep into the stats and the numbers especially once we get into the season so for $4.99 a month you can become a member of the channel and really help this channel continue to grow and until next time as always as I always end my videos off because I am a Michigan fan go Blue