Oregon vs. Boise State "Way- Too- Early" Preview + Prediction | 2024 College Football

Introduction I'm not going to lie the Oregon Ducks have been one of the more difficult teams to talk about this off season not because I don't think that there's much to talk about but because there's not too much intriguing to talk about and what I mean by that is you know for most any college football team going into any given season there's a lot of question marks you know part of the reason why I think a lot of us enjoy college football is because of the amount of turnover there is from year to year my favorite team the Michigan Wolverines are only returning 36% of their production by the way and have a new head coach so there's a lot of things to talk about there you know and pontificate on and wonder about but for Oregon and I feel like for Oregon fans and Oregon fans can correct me in the comments if I'm wrong I feel like you're just kind of ready for the season to get here because there aren't too many question marks around this team you know of course this is one of the most talented teams heading into the college football season in 2024 they don't have a new head coach they have a head coach that's you know established himself although he hasn't really reached the Pinnacle of the conference Championship or whatever conference season let alone the national championship but I do think everything is in front of the Oregon Ducks in 2024 and maybe there are some question marks in some places you know they're replacing an NFL level center from last season in Jackson Powers Johnson they're replacing an NFL level quarterback in B knck but both of those positions seem relatively secure the quarterback for instance is is going to be Dylan Gabriel who is already you know the early Heisman favorite so there's not too much to talk about I feel like in regards to Oregon unless you just want to hype this team up even more which maybe we'll do that some of that in this video and of course this is a preview and prediction of the Oregon Ducks week two matchup with the Boise State Broncos and I do want to shout out somebody I'm blinking on who it wasn't but there was somebody that commented on a video the other day and suggested that we do this prevum prediction we weren't originally planning on doing it but once they pointed it out I thought that would be an interesting one to cover now that I think about it because while Oregon has everything in front of them this season including in my opinion a national championship run which in case you haven't been watching Oregon is my pick to win the National Championship in 2024 the Boise State Broncos could be an interesting test for this team as they really get into the grit of their season now of course Oregon plays Idaho in week one and we're kind of looking ahead of that game but I think anyone would assume that that game will be a blowout if if not I'll eat some Crow on that one and I'll admit it I'm merely just trying to get every preview and prediction video I can in for the out of conference a little early and not going to lie I'm trying to jump on the you know jump on the bandwagon here and get some preview predictions out of the way before other content creators do to try to get some views that's part of the game here too but I do also think think that this could be a rather interesting match up while on the surface it doesn't look that interesting when you really look at it it could be and before we really get into it of course remember to hit the like button on this video help get it up into the algorithm and get more eyes on this channel which will help this channel continue to grow we are already by the way over our 3,000 subscriber goal for the beginning of the 2024 season but we have a new goal of hitting 5,000 subscribers back the end of the 2024 season and only you can help us get there if you hit the Subscribe button before we really get into things and like I said this could be a more interesting matchup than some people are may be looking at at least on the surface level of course Boise State brings in a relatively new head coach and Spencer Danielson who of course served as the interim for the final three games of last season but they went three and0 in that span and while they're of course a group of five team and you know Boise State perpetually I think gets respect from the college football World of course they always bring up you know the memories of the hook and ladder over Oklahoma and other upsets that they've had in their time at the FBS level they have respect but they're still a group of five teams so I still still think sometimes they get a little disrespected so it's they're in a conference that it doesn't get much respect in general but they did win their conference last season by the way scoring 44 points on UNLV in the Mountain West Conference Championship game last season Boise state is and always has been really a Punchy upstart and speaking of Punchy uparts with interesting characters around their team you know when I was doing the research for this video I noticed that Dirk cutter yes that Dirk cutter formerly the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the offensive coordinator for this team headed into 2024 who by the way was sixth sixth in the entire country and rushing yards per game of course behind the efforts of Ashton Jey one of the best running backs in the entire country and it's kind of surprising that he stayed at Boise State and didn't enter the transfer portal so Boise State does have some things going for themselves it could make this game interesting and albeit I do think ultimately Oregon will pull away in this one not to give too much away you know of course we're going to get our big prediction at the end of this video I do think this is a very interesting matchup which will provide an early test not just for a team with national championship aspirations but for a team that is entering a more physical conference a team that will face a lot of high-powered rushing teams like Ohio State and Michigan this season I think Boise State with being the sixth best rushing team in the country last year could be an early test and just the early test that Oregon needs before they enter that big 10 schedule and speaking of Boise State we're just going to get into them right here we'll get to the details in an overview of course of Boise State right now and then of course we'll over overview Oregon what everything they have going for them and of course I will go over the key players that I think they need for this game I'll give some analysis and ultimately I'll give my predictions but right now let's get into Boise State the Boise State Broncos and the first thing Boise State you may notice on the slide is yes that is that Malachi Nelson that is the man you are thinking of who now transferred to boisey state from USC and we'll get into him of course in a minute but in case anyone forgot in case anyone hasn't you know paying attention to Boise State football and I have to admit I'm someone who doesn't necessarily pay too much attention to them I'm a big 10 guy so I apologize ahead of time if there's anything that I missed I'm sure some Boise State fans May correct me in the comments but I'm here to learn and grow West Virginia fans that's that's just a reminder that's I feel like I'm the Public Enemy Number One of every West Virginia fan out there right now but I digress always digressing also I did notice in the last video I say that a lot and somebody corrected me I thought that was really funny anyway everyone has their little things that they say everyone has their uh little ticks but anyway last season the Boise State Broncos went eight and six and again finished 3 and0 down the stretch so while that 8 and six Mark may not seem too good they did hit their Benchmark of being one of the better group of five teams towards the end of the season and that they won their conference and ultimately went six and two in their conference I believe there was a three-way tie at the top of the Mountain West Conference and they were able through tiebreakers to get into that conference Championship game and again beat UNLV 44 to20 so again The Narrative of Boise State kind of being a Punchy upstart in the world of college football going all the way back to that Oklahoma upset in the Tostitos for fiestable which would seems like forever ago now honestly Boise state has well established itself as a good college football program since but I think that's the most you know famous thing they'll ever be known for unless say somehow won a national championship game but anyway heading into the season they are ranked 38th in Bill Connelly's SP plus which for a group of five team again is pretty good that's ranked ahead of teams like Colorado that's ranked ahead of plenty of big 10 teams like Michigan State and the indianas of the world and Purdue of the world in fact they're ranked like something like 30 spots above Purdue so don't overlook this team is going to be the lesson of this video and the whole reason why we're doing this video football power index of course does have them ranked a little lower at 48th there's a little bit of a disparity there not a huge disparity but football power index of course is a whole different way of measuring things and the interesting thing again a Punchy upart despite a 2% team Talent index which in case you're not familiar is my version of Blue Chip ratio just 2% of all the players on this roster are blue chippers I believe it's Malachi Nelson the quarterback that we'll get into in just a minute here and another player on the roster just two players on the roster are former blue chippers they have a recent winning percentage in the last three seasons of 62% two seasons ago if I remember right they went 10 and four and that is of course reflected in their win percentage it's pretty high again for considering group of five teams play a lot of bigger programs and they're out of conference you know in order to get those paychecks in order to get that money and keep their football programs up and running they're basically selling you know losses every season on the schedule so being able to go consistently you know 10 and four 9 and three you know stuff like that isn't bad at all and heading into the season though they do have a relatively low returning production total but of course I think that is affected by the fact that their quarterback from last season hit the transfer portal they do return a lot of production on the offensive side of the ball which is really going to be the key that we're going to focus in on for Boise State and why I do think they could make this an interesting game Boise state has a pretty good damn good offense as a matter of fact especially in one aspect and that is running the football which we'll get into in a minute here that could be a threat to Oregon in this game now am I seeing Oregon one of the the best teams in the country should be on upset alert absolutely not but Boise State again could be a good early test and then in DPI according to my DPI index I don't have a ranking for them because they're not in the power four but they do have a score of 123 which is decent for a group of five team and then like we said we're going to get into Malachi and Nelson of course the former USC commit and five-star Prospect out of Los Alamitos California was once viewed as the air apparent to cayb Williams Boise State may get to reap the reward in fact of Lincoln riy dipping his toe in the transfer portal looking for quarterbacks this past off season as he injured and malign Nelson entered the portal the same weekend as a matter of fact that will Howard was on campus for a visit of course will Howard ended up going to Ohio State we all know that but on the weekend that he did visit USC was the weekend that Malachi Nelson was like okay I'm out USC of course ultimately ended up settling on Miller moss and now Malachi becomes is one of just two two former blue chippers like we said a minute ago on Boise State's entire roster he's an elite quarterback prospect with a first round grade according to the folks over at 247 and even Drew Jordan love comps from guys like Gabe Brooks to put it simply Malachi's presence in this game is a big part of what makes this game intriguing and now I do have to stop here and correct myself I know there is an ongoing quarterback battle it seems like there's a guy named Maddox if I remember right who is also competing for the starting job but it looks like most everyone out there thinks that it's Malachi's job to lose ACC at least according to the videos and the research that I've done the Articles I've read and the videos I've watched but again Boise State fans are more than welcome to correct me in the comments it's what I'm here for to grow and to learn we hope you continue to grow and learn with us if you subscribe to the channel by the way but to put it simply Boise State now has a quarterback with Elite potential an extremely high upside again a former five-star Prospect I I think it a surp it surprised a lot of people when he decided to transfer to Boise State I almost forgot about it by the way when I was looking over the roster doing my research for this video I was like wait that Malachi Nelson yeah and it turns out it indeed is him and he has high upside again against a defense that was one of the best in terms of scoring last season in the Oregon kns I believe Oregon was in the top 15 I believe they were 14th in scoring defense last season but if you're going to compete against an Elite defense which I think Oregon will have this next coming season albeit he is a freshman you know he's a red shirt freshman he did spend one year at USC learning under guys like Caleb Williams and Miller moss and no matter what your opinion is on Lincoln Riley by the way he is great at finding that next great quarterback maybe maybe Malachi Nelson is the guy whom he let slip through his fingers but it's not just Malachi Nelson that makes this matchup with Boise State for Oregon an intriguing one Ashton Jey again as we said he one of the best running backs in the entire country in fact an article that I sourced referred to him as generational and I can't I can't disagree despite multiple nil offers again as we said earlier he decided not to enter the transfer portal and he looks to improve on what was an amazing 2023 season he actually carried the ball for over 1300 yards 14 touchdowns and an insane 6.1 yards per carry average but it also doesn't stop there again Boise State's offense could be pretty good this next year and could give Oregon some fright early on in this matchup could kind of give them something to deal with left tackle cage Casey I believe I'm pronouncing that name right by the way I'm I apologize if I get any of these names wrong again I'm not super familiar with Boise State I just did about three hours worth of research on them all together so far so again if I get names wrong or anything please understand it's not intentional but anyway cage Casey was a freshman All-American last season and he didn't give up a single sack so there are also talented players along the offensive line for Boise State you know a lot of lower level teams they'll be lucky to get a good quarterback and some good wide receivers maybe they have a running back who was a three- star commit that was kind of overlooked by the bigger programs Boise State also has it around along the offensive line and it's not just AE Casey who are highlighting on our key players graphic of course he's going to be matched up against some pretty defense pretty good defensive ends which we'll get into in a minute when we talk Oregon but there are also the pairing of Ben douly and Mason Randol who are very experienced players along that offensive line as well Boise State Loki has a really great offensive line and then on the offensive side of the football in case you haven't noticed four out of my five players listed in the key player section are offensive players for a reason because I do think if Boise State wants to have a chance in this game they're going to have to turn this one into a shootout but Prince Straten Prince strain however you pronounce that name again I apologize if I get it wrong Sten maybe that's how you pronounce it he is also a great wide receiver and a great one-on-one receiving threat he may get some one-on-one matchups as Oregon tries to commit resources again to stop the running game which could show some signs of weakness along or Oregon's defensive front in this game could give them some problems I should say not maybe show them weakness I don't think the front seven of Oregon is a weakness in fact I think it's a really good one but it could give them some problems may cause Oregon to load the box and go with more man coverage which would give Prince Sten stratching again however you pronounce it some opportunities he's of course just a former three star Prospect but three star prospects again as we know especially me as a Michigan fan knows this can still turn out to be pretty damn good and at 6 foot five he is a huge receiving threat but that's not even but that's not even the limits of Boise State's wide receiver core they also have a guy named Trail CES and Austin Bolt stands out both of those guys stand out as pretty good wide receivers as well along as as far as the defense goes and I think this is really the weakness of this team this is was the one of the biggest question marks according to all of the you know articles that I referenced and videos that I watched the defense Remains the question mark for Boise State and where I think their biggest weakness will be exploited they do have defensive end on Med hassanin who was a stand on on what was an otherwise lackluster defense again last season pretty I I think it's fair to say there were some pretty lackluster but he is also paired with Jaden virgin Morgan at Edge and the two do seem to be Premier pass rushers something this team will need as they face a high powered offense run by one of the most experienced college quarterbacks in the entire country Dylan Gabriel by the way could break the record for starts made by a college quarterback which was held by the last Oregon quarterback funnily enough it seems like they figured out the formula for good quarterback play at Oregon just get really experienced guys in the transfer portal but I die Gress anyway but while this team does stand out at Edge and has some decent linebackers by the way in Andrew Simpson and Marco notari believe Nini that's how I'm going to pronounce it the P defense Remains the biggest question mark on this team and what I honestly again believe will be the Achilles heal for them in this one Boise do state by the way finished 107th in the entire country and pass yards given up per game last season now though Washington defensive transferred Devon bakes should help them with that especially you know as a guy familiar with the opponent here but I think Boise is still in for a long day trying to slow down Bill excuse me Dylan Gabriel and an elite group of wide receivers one thing that does bode well for Boise though is that they return above average production on the defensive side of the ball their overall returning production is 59% but their defensive returning production is 71% so I do think while the defense is definitely the Achilles heel they will have some more experienced players on that side of the ball but where Boise State really would matches up well with Oregon I think is how good they are offensively I think this offense is better than a lot of you know power four offenses as a matter of fact but we're just going to end it off there with our coverage of Boise State in this video CU I feel like I'm getting pretty long with it I kind of fell in love with the Boise State offense as I did my research for this video not going lie we're going to get into Oregon right here which may be a little more brief because obviously we've already covered Oregon ad nauseum but we still want to touch on of course the key players for this game which I have covered right here and of Oregon course Oregon enters the season as one of the most if not the most talented team in all of college football Ohio State fans watching make it offended by that but honestly I don't care they're offended by everything these days anyway Oregon is simply just Elite at every level but these are really the key players over on the left side that I think need to step up in this game in case you can't piece it together there's several defensive players that I think will need to step up because again Boise state has lowkey a pretty good offense I think overall they were like 30th in points per game last season something we'll get into in just a minute here by the way but of course last season in case you forgot Oregon went 12- two and only lost to one team twice once in the regular season and once in the Pack 12 championship game but of course everything changes for Oregon in 2024 as they are now a big 10 team which is exactly why we are covering them here on Darren talks ball a big 10 channel in preseason SP plus Bill Connelly's rankings they are third in Sp plus and they are second in fpi fpi actually even higher on them than SP plus which is interesting to me according to my metrick of Team Talent index again my version of the Blue Chip ratio which accounts for the entire r by the way that's why some of these scores you'll see if you if you cross reference to this with their Blue Chip ratio the one that butd Elliot does you know they score a lot lower on mine it's just a different scale really because I use the entirety of the roster that includes Walk-Ons and everything so mine I feel like is a more accurate score but again they're both really good 44% of their entire roster by the way is made up of X Blue Chip recruits and that's good for like third in the entire country behind just Georgia and Ohio State if I remember that right I believe it's third anyway their recent win percentage is 78% they have been one of the better teams in all of college football over the course of the last three or four years outside of the michigans you know in Georgia and Ohio States of the world of course they've had a couple of down years but Dan Lanning of course has them right back on track if it wasn't for that conference Championship loss a close one against Washington last season in that rematch game they would have been in the college football playoff and who knows what they could have done then we may have been talking about a repeat you know as Oregon being the one to possibly repeat but again close only counts in horses shoes and Hand Grenades as they say and then they do also have despite replacing their quarterback and several key starters along the offense they do have a returning production statistic above average they return 69% of their overall production and average in that statistic is about 65 to 66% so slightly above average in that metric and then in DPI and Darren power index they're right alongside where they are in Sp plus third in the entire country only outscored in my metric with a 191 by Ohio State and Georgia and in this game in particular I didn't highlight Dylan Gabriel because I do think he will be good in this game and they will need him at times you know and some long third Downs that may come up and things like that but I think the solution for Oregon in this game is honestly to treat this as some good prep for the Big 10 and run the football and play physically and prove that you really belong in this conference because while Boise State I think sometimes the narrative around Boise State and how we kind of historically have looked at them is yeah they've got some highflying players and they rely on trick plays and this and that to win games they are actually more physical than a lot of people have you believe again six in the entire country in rushing yards per game I think if you're Oregon you try to limit the extent of how successful Boise States offense can be which means you run the football down their throat all game you make them deal with the pair of J Jo excuse me Jordan James there we go I can speak English a little bit and Noah Winnington you use that offensive line which is replacing some players but will also be incredibly good this season and again look at the TTI score for Oregon as compared to Boise State you're the more talented team you're also the more experienced team if we go by returning production you're bigger you're stronger you're faster you can bully them you can bully a team like Boise State if you're Oregon and I think honestly it's good practice for when you play the michigans and Ohio States of the world later in the season and also when you're playing these Auto conference games against you know group of five opponents sometimes you just want to win and get out of there and get out of there as healthy as possible so run the ball run the clock shorten the game control the game limit the amount of possessions and you know chances to score that Boise State gets and I think that's the solution offensively for this game and of course Jordan James Noah Winnington and the offensive line are going to be the key to that but defensively defensively I think the Kia is going to be slowing down that Boise State passing attack which may be pretty good again a former five-star quarterback a guy who drew Drew you know Jordan love comparisons coming out of high school could be pretty good and he could surprise you so Jabar muhamad the Washington transfer may need to have a big game this this excuse me in this matchup you know I would expect him to be paired up oftentimes against Prince St Sten Sten Straten however you pronounce it the 6 foot five wide receiver you know Jabar Jabar Muhammad being as physical as he is I think is a good matchup there and then you've got Jordan Burch and Mato oui ug who will have to get some pressure on the Young quarterback for B state but also we know that Boise state is going to want to run the ball and they do have a pretty good offensive line so he put Jeffrey basa up there as a linebacker and kind of the leader of this defense in a lot of ways you know he's a very experienced player I did a video a while back on the best linebackers in the Big 10 entering this season and he was in my top five easily I think with his experience you know I think I think and people can correct me in the comments if I'm wrong he's a bit better in pass coverage than against the run but I think in this game your linebackers especially are going to have to stay in their l going to have to memorize their run fits and stick to them and keep Ashton Jey contained and that's really my keys to the game for Oregon these are my key players and the key statistics let's get into some further analysis Analysis/ Predictions here and now we get to the tail of the tape which I still think is a Cheesy way to word I I don't know lack of a better term I guess I don't know what else to call this slide really other been you know it's a breakdown it's analysis it's what you guys come here for I would expect interestingly enough though I couldn't find a line on this game and you know the early lines are out on most college football games but my sources you know the Vegas odds betting sites that I I look up when I'm doing research for these videos didn't have anything on this game so far but I would assume Oregon would be the easy favorite here you know if I personally were setting a line on this game I'd probably say it's about 10 and a half to 15 and a half I don't know I'm I'm not a betting guy I'm not a Vegas guy so honestly don't know maybe maybe be as high as 17 or something like that but anyways I [Music] die anyway Oregon does as we all know have a massive Advantage according to all the metrics as we've seen before of course Boise state is a good group of five school but they are nothing in comparison to Oregon really when it comes to Talent when it comes to their overall statistical rankings when it comes to how theyve performed in the transfer portal Etc etcc but Boise States offense again could make things interesting and I think that's why this is intriguing match rep and again I shout out the person I commend the person that mentioned in the comment on the video the that I did the other day that I do this game because this really is an interesting game to break down they scored about 32 points per game last season which is a pretty good pretty efficient offense you know that would have them just outside of the top 25 in points per game last season but this is really where I think the key weakness weaknesses are for Boise State heading into this matchup their pass defense remains suspect and as I saw saw from last season they were as we went over already they were 107th in yards given up per game and they were 80th in team passing efficiency defense and as we all know Dan Lanning and Company call a really efficient passing game when it comes to schematics of things easy completions for the quarterback and opportunities for the wide receivers to get yards after the reception and honestly when Oregon is fac when a team like Oregon is facing a team like Boise State which doesn't rank very highly in team passing efficiency defense that tells me that this could be a blowout I hate to say it I do think Boise State could score some points in this game but I think points are going to come by relatively easily for Oregon with the lacking pass defense but maybe that's fixed of course new coaching staff at Boise State and all we have to go off of at this point or you know statistics from last season and what do those even really mean heading into this season but again it's all that we can go off of and then I wanted to put this on here too because while Boise State does have a pretty good offense they still are only 30 third in preseason offense of SP plus which is a important metric to me if you've been following the channel for a while I really do like and respect Bill connell's work over at ESPN I think it's the most accurate you know predictor of games and in this one Oregon has a massive offensive Advantage they are first in the country in that metric in offens of SP plus and Boise state is not even in the top 25 but this to me is what this game will really come down to I think Boise State will be able to score some points I do think they'll be an early test they'll be a primer for the Big 10 teams that Oregon will have to play later in the season of course they're a run heavy team as we've seen with Ashton Jey one of the best running backs in the entire country I do think that defense will be a little bit tested a little bit especially that Elite front seven that they have but Oregon's offense is simply going to in my opinion light up that Boise State especially that pass defense but that's not necessarily what they need to do either I think they can run the ball I think they can dominate with you know Elite offensive line play and with just better players overall I hate to you know kind of deduce it to that but Oregon is just a much more talented team they're a bigger team on both sides of the football when it comes to their offensive and defensive lines I think they're going to win the trenches in this one and I do think that Jordan James especially as most people know I'm very high on Jordan James coming into this next season I think Jordan James will have a good game in this one a very good game and that leads me to my ultimate predictions I think Oregon will be able to throw the ball at will the question is can they run because another thing we haven't covered in this video is Boise State was in the top 40 in terms of run defense last year in ter terms of rushing yards given up per game they were 38th but again Boise State didn't have to play too many teams last season that were as good as this Oregon Ducks team team I do also think that a defense as talented as Oregon and going up against a team like Boise State who is going to need to try to throw the ball early and often a team that's going to have to you know take some risks try to get some big plays to keep this game close I do think Oregon will get at least one turn over out of that probably an interception maybe even early on you know maybe Jabar Muhammad gets a pick off of a deep ball trying to get a jump ball opportunity to Prince I'm going to mess up his name one more time in this video streten straighten whatever all the respect in the world to the guy I just don't know how to pronounce his name and I'm sorry should have done more research I guess and I do think Boise's offense keeps things interesting early I think maybe maybe they do pop off some good plays again former NFL coach as their offensive coordinator not afraid of competition not afraid to take chances But ultimately I do think again like I said just a second ago I think Jordan James has a kind of coming out party in this one I think he gets over 100 allpurpose yards I really do and then my ultimate prediction for this one is Oregon 42 Boise State 20 I think Boise State will be able to score some points I don't think it's going to be like a 56 to1 or 63 to 10 kind of blowout I think it'll be closer than some people imagine but at the end of the day it'll still be a 20 point plus victory for the Oregon Ducks and that's all I've got on this one stay tuned for more preview and prediction videos here at Darren talks ball and of course we will have reactions to all of these games as they begin in the month of September so subscribe so you can see those when they come out and as always and forever go Blue