PBS News Hour - Politics Monday: Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Harris' convention bump and if...

there are just 70 days left until election day and the campaigns are ramping into high gear that means there's a lot to break down this week in politics and for that we're joined by our politics Stakes Duo that is Amy Walter of the cook political Report with Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR good to see you both to be here so one week after the convention Democratic National Convention Amy as you will know sometimes canidates get what we call a post-convention bounce this is a weird year though so are are we seeing that or do we expect to see that for KLA Harris um that's a really good question because you know unlike any other election we've ever seen before where the candidate really just came onto the scene less than a month before the convention she got a lot of that bump before we even got to Chicago with the base then rallying around her but look she's had the wind at her back so to speak for the last well really since she's been in this race and it hasn't abetted in fact if anything the convention really just I think crystallized um the the kind of momentum that she's been able to sustain for the last month and you have Democrats leaving Chicago but also you're feeling it around the rest of the country more enthusiastic and energized and they've been at any point this year and I could argue maybe for the last two years um so she may get something of a little bit of a bump out of that um but overall I think this is the real question going forward and this is what Trump is trying desperately to stop is that she has been able to uh basically control The Narrative of this campaign on the terms that she wants to um talk about whether it's on issues the issues like abortion or putting the economy the economic question in terms that work for her and most important she's been able to even as the incumbent grab the change candidate so people are upset with the status quo she's part of the status quo but somehow managed to also be the person who's turning the page if you're Donald Trump you got to find a way to to blunt that so if you're Donald Trump right now Tam and just Braden this out to both campaigns for us this is a condensed timeline now 70 days left here you've got a new ticket late in the cycle on the Democratic side what are we seeing from the campaigns at this stage that tells us what the priorities are what the strategies are for this home stretch Trump's campaign did put out a memo over the weekend saying there's going to be a bump Harris is going to see her her numbers rise don't worry it'll go away everybody sees this and it goes away and and it's not clear because this is such a a tight schedule what is going to happen but what I do know is that Trump is campaigning like he's losing um and what I mean by that is he is doing a lot of events he's doing a bunch of different types of events he is uh doing everything he can to rest attention away from Harris so today what that meant is he went to Arlington Cemetery uh in in outside of Washington Washton DC uh then he went to a Vietnamese restaurant uh in Northern Virginia campaigning with a Senate candidate doing these sort of small retail type of events that that's not something he's typically done um so he is he is doing everything he can to get attention um Harris on the other hand is gonna have a bus tour this week through uh through Georgia and what's interesting about that it's the same strategy that they employed in Pennsylvania which is uh to say that Atlanta is not Georgia uh that the state has many other areas rural areas where there are democratic voters they may be outnumbered but they could still hear from the candidate and they could sort of reduce their losses in some of those areas so uh she's doing a bus tour it's not just big rallies but that both campaigns are running like it's a real race because it is a real race well there's another factor that could have an impact in this race that we know will be one on the margins that was Friday's announcement of Robert F Kennedy saying he's suspending his campaign and endorsing Donald Trump Amy as you have shown us we already saw his support drop after Harris became the nominees and half of his supporters went to her but his endorsement of trump means what do the other half go to Trump that's right well that's the really big question so it's true before Biden dropped out of this race just overall an average National vote about 8% of Voters said they were voting for um RFK Jr by the time by today it's now down to half of that so you're right most of those went to Harris what's happening now at least in a surveys that that we did um a couple of weeks back looking just at the Battleground States those voters Who Remain Kennedy supporters if you push them on the question reallocate them say all right if you had to who would you support you can see that almost half of them say that they are Trump supporters now do they show up number one right or do they stay home because they are sitting there because they really liked RFK and they're disappointed and maybe now they don't show up for Trump if they do show up for Trump um and especially if they show if if those undecided voters there are still significant numbers said they're undecided yeah if they combine show up for Trump um as well you know you're talking about movement of a point or so or little under a point doesn't look big but when we've had the last two elections decided by 10,000 votes here and 15,000 votes there if I'm the Trump campaign I would be ready to try to bring those people back into uh my camp and if you're the Harris campaign as we saw Harris walls campaign chair General Mali Dylan put out a statement after RFK Jr dropped out basically saying vice president Harris wants to earn their support also saying this for any American out there who's tired of Donald Trump and looking for a new way forward ours is a campaign for you are those voters winnable by Harris what's their best argument here well part of that is just signaling that they take no vote for for granted uh and actually a big part of that is signaling that because as we've been saying this is an incredibly close race it will in all likelihood continue to be a very close race and they can't look like they're just riding off a group of Voters um so sure they could go nuclear on all of RFK Jr's many liabilities and try to tie those to Trump and and they will do that too um but this was sort of the conciliatory thing that you would expect saying we're a big tent look at the convention they had all these Republicans for Trump uh today they announced another something like 200 Republicans for Trump they are building a stable of people uh who are who they hope will create a permission structure for people who feel uncomfortable with Trump to vote for Harris um that's not the major thrust of the campaign but it's just one of the many ankles they're trying to scoop up little bits of it's a reminder that the the Democratic Coalition since Biden has really been one of bringing in voters who say I don't know that I could really vote for Donald Trump uh to say come on in we are now part of that anti-trump party we are the antitrump party meanwhile you heard Lisa report earlier as well that there is another debate scheduled this time it would be between vice president Harris and former president Trump for later in September Mr Trump is now casting doubt on whether he will actually take part in it so I have to ask do you think it's going to happen and does it make an impact yes I mean to to Tam's point this is now a place where Donald Trump needs to change the direction of this campaign and the moment of this campaign back in June it was Biden who wanted that debate because he knew he was running behind now it's Trump who wants uh to change the focus and listen ever since Harris got into this race the Trump campaign has been very adamant saying look she hasn't been tested yet she hasn't been pushed yet she hasn't sat down for an interview yet she hasn't had to make any specifics yet let's see if she's a how she's able to do once she gets under the Hot Lights of having to answer questions that's not on a teleprompter that's not scripted yeah she has been conducting a one-way conversation with the American people it has not been a two-way conversation she hasn't been pressed and so a debate is an opportunity this interview that she has promised she will do by the end of August and the end of August is soon um that will also be a two-way conversation and um you know the the Harris campaign clearly seems to want this debate to happen but they also are I think enjoying I could say um getting under Trump's skin about it well implying that well you know he his his handlers don't want him to have the open mic um he wants the mic shut down and so then Trump gets asked about and he's like oh no I I'd be perfectly happy with the mics being open and then that sort of blows up the negotiations in in the behind the scenes debate about the debate I feel like we'll continue to have the debate about the debate until the debate actually happens Jami of NPR Amy Walter of the cook political report always great to see you both thank you so much you're welcome [Music]