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should be celebrating welcome back Mir so it's it's been a I think the bits of August you've missed have been a bit painful in the sense upwards but very very slow you know people have had to work for their profits in this market good not to have a markets like that you know typically I call me superstitious but or whatever but history is shown that if the markets were in a turmoil then during Ganesh chaturti the market show a bit of a buoyancy the markets haven't been in turmoil let's see but if there is continued buoyancy there there lot of things have stood out right so while we may have been slow and steady and I know Tam is like this needs to be quicker but the fact remains volatility was controlled you had sectors doing well that we thought had over and done with their Valley right unfortunately the only negative that's standing out for me is what's happening on Bank Nifty they're just not finding the support that they need and if you've got to scale to 25,500 bank Nifty will have to pull its weight so the hope is and I think this is the trade that most people we've spoken to in the last few days have said that buy bang Nifty for September because only if that moves up will the Nifty move but what also really did well is farma quietly and slowly we've been focusing on it but I think the story really has been how farmer stocks have done this month so so just talking about August and we pulled up uh how August performed uh a bit of a review before we get to September how August uh performed in all of how markets performed in all of August so Nifty was up about 1.1% through the month SX up 0.76% um really it was only uh the small cap index which was okay relatively at 1.24% up over the month midcap was flat 0.3% over month and Bank Nifty down 0.39% so uh it's it's a very forgettable August let's hope September is slightly better but uh yeah should we get to the global cues but let's get the set up we have so much to talk about GDP data came over the weekend we'll unpack that uh we have the Bajaj uh housing Finance IPO to talk about and of course the big Gujarat gas deal but the global cues first um Friday was decent uh you know an up move four markets for us markets uh because of the pce data the inflation data which came in completely in line the Dow hit a record high at close for the S&P uh 500 it's been a fourth straight month of um closing up but it's getting a little tired July inflation data completely in line with expectations so that was good I'll quickly run you through it pce the personal expenditure rose 0.2% month- on month 2.5% year on year that's what was penciled in um the bond yields post that then of course just saw a very slight move up uh you saw a quick look at how us indices performs to that month and S&P 500 leading the charge the rest fairly okay but all up in the green 3.9% on the tenure crude uh trending lower because one interesting development over the weekend is reports that OPEC plus could look at increasing output from October so that means more Supply coming in uh so despite the Libya um Supply disruptions that means that crude could continue to Trend downwards you're seeing the NX down about 1% Asia is um pretty much mixed as an open because um the data coming in from China the PMI data coming in from China shows PMI at um a 6mon low and um which is why Asia is iffy over there nikay down up about um less than half% let's look at the implied open for India very quickly and see what kind of a morning we are setting up for just completely flat no fireworks in September yet we'll hope and see if uh the rest of the day picks up but right now you're looking like you're set for a flat opening completely fun flow on Friday because remember the end of the week last week was fairly good and um you had foreign investors coming back now I think that's one Trend to watch out for 5,380 CR rupees of buys from foreign investors only on Friday on the last day trading day of August domestic investors sold about 3,198 crores so that was sort of the global setup and we'll have a deeper dive into it in a bit but uh here uh locally NJ I think uh finding a reason to gain some steam will be one reason and do you think GDP data will weigh at all on the minds of investors yeah not and and maybe not also because I think some of the notes and I'm sure we'll discuss about it in detail but some of the notes suggested that uh it's largely come in line as well at least I read upasna and pranjul and they seem to suggest that that is the case but you know actually we'll get to the GDP in a moment but just the statistics uh what Samina started off saying a stat like this that 12th consecutive session the strongest rally since Inception these things guys don't happen because uh some Traders are coming in and just mopping the markets higher right stable up yeah and it was in August 10 for S&P as well I was reading a statistic that never before in history has the S&P 500 gained 25% in the preceding 12 months to a rate cut easing or rate easing cycle it's been very strong for the US markets as well so in some sense a combined up move there so momentum in favor also I think one thing n if you talk to the tone of fund managers now I think uh everyone who was sitting on the sidelines now suddenly is beginning to allocate and you're seeing that on portfolio so if you see the July portfolio and I'd like to see what happens in August but things are turning the corner because usually when you sit on sips you're either waiting for a price correction or you do a Time bound correction right in this case if price is not happened you have no choice but to go out and allocate yeah so yeah just I mean very valid point as well and I think it'll be great to talk to some fund managers on this we going to talk to Abal today was sitting on a bit of cash as well so we lovely but here's the trade setup so momentum in favor no reason to take the foot off the pedal at least I believe so fi flows in the primary Market are the highest since 2021 making listing gains such a lucrative opportunity so many people are now doing that what used to happen in the previous B market was just flip for listing gains and our colleague sind has done a fantastic story on our website you might want to go in and uh read that as well fabulous data about how FIS have made a beine for the primary market so that's the second thing but words of caution September the month of September since 2018 has seen alternate years of gains and losses every year gain one year loss the other year then the gain then the loss 2023 was a year of a gain could 2024 be a year of loss that's one and guys eight nfos multiple IPOs this week yeah that could suck out some serious liquidity I know we'll talk about it in detail but eight nfos and so many IPOs so that's one and lastly Harish Krishan of AD sunlife put out this amazing data point and he is saying that not in history has this happened that the number of stocks on the Nifty 500 with a p multiple over over 50 nearly 50% of stocks on the Nifty 500 are trading at a p multiple of more than 50 times this makes the broader Market terribly expensive so very expensive Market but still think there's still thinks the market is expensive this hasn't happened in a few months Market no Market has been expensive but I still think that the momentum is in so I think one more thing that we should be slightly mindful about is remember this is the last month and remember from first 1 October the taxation on buyback is going to change so you would see remember in August you had 6,000 crores of BuyBacks that hit a market this month we'll see an escalation of that number this is because from 1st of October the buyback or the the inflows or the BuyBacks were charged uh to the companies which will now move to shareholders so I think this again could be one sentiment you want to watch out for because you might have companies that might look at exiting uh treasuries in order to pay out some of their share holders to avoid the taxation liability up until 1st October so that's one more thing we don't talk about this often but this is something that India Inc is currently dealing with very often while n talked about how it's the season of nfos and IPOs it's the season of block deals and that's one big reason why you may even see uh the FI number that we highlight for you time and again because that's where the buying is largely coming in but that's one factor that I'd watch out for largely talking about the markets n while we've had it good I think we've had it pretty good and I've genuinely been circumspect on this market for a few months because it was looking expensive you had funds that was sitting on the sidelines large portfolios were not willing to go all in for fair reason right earnings have also largely been in line there have been no upside surprises but the Nifty is up 16% your to date we have borrowed returns from the future you can't take that away I think the big question to ask now is Nifty higher now or Nifty higher in December and I've been doing this with some of our fund managers and most surprisingly have said higher in December yeah no I I don't know you'll have the the Fed rate in cut by then perhaps Governor Das gets a little proded by the GDP data to also look at rate Cuts uh just a quick word on GDP and what governor da said before we get to stocks because I think that's an important thing that happened over the weekend that we should quickly address so what happened is that uh India quarterly GDP came in at a five quarter low um the number which came in for the April to June quarter it was below estimates it was expected that it would in fact be lower because of Base effects Etc but it was still below estimates it's uh agre at 6.7% if you compare to the previous quarter it was 7.8% quite a few factors over there guys which were expected so you had elections less government spending as a result agriculture was slow at 2% growth versus 3.7% year on-ear because you had heat waves and all of the above manufacturing though zoomed at 7% for the quarters is 5% year onye but I thought the conversation or the comment from Governor Das was important uh Sam just yeah and just before that I think private consumption has done well so if you're looking at uh precursors to what's expected going ahead the fact that service is looking better private consumption is better but of course there are some who've gone out and said that we need a rate cut and if you don't get that rate cut the recovery but I think that's being a little overdone given that this is cyclical this is seasonal you had the budget you had telling you when government doesn't spend what the econom looks like private consumption is seeing early signs of pickups I would take I would take heart from that and also there are measures in the budget on the msme side uh that gives me hope that manufacturing and service will pick up we are seeing green shoots in terms of rural now the flip of it is you saw the earnings corporate India is still not being able to contribute as much so while there is a point but I don't think it's all dark I do feel like Moody has upgraded Us in other news which is also a big positive yeah so lots of positives but let's get down to should we I just play what governor because that was an important bite his comment on the GDP data and why you should not worry it's just important we'll quickly he that Reserve bank's projection was 7.1% but actual uh number which has been given by the first advanc estimates given by the national statistical office is 6.7% now obviously 6.7% you know would give an impression that I mean it is lower than 7.1 goes without saying but if you look at the components of the GDP the main drivers of the GDP growth whether it is uh consumption or it is investment or from the supply side it is Manufacturing Services growth construction growth construction sector growth I think all the sectors the growth is 7% Plus in the first quarter two aspects which have slightly pulled it down one is government expenditure which is both central government and state government expend perhaps due to the election season between April and June and the operation of the model code of conduct of the election commission government expenditure was lower in the first quarter and when I say government expenditure it is both Central and state government expenditures but going forward I would expect uh we would expect the uh government expenditures that is both state and central government expenditures to pick up and uh provide the required support to growth the other thing which was slightly lower uh was agriculture which grew I think at about 2% or so uh but first quarter you know like uh it's the second quarter really uh second quarter onwards from July onwards the monsoon has been very good and well we're hoping on Rural recovery a better Monsoon and hopefully that GDP numers starts looking better sooner than later Forex reserves also at a record high for India well implied Nifty is indicating to a flat start keeping in line with global cues and the fact that we've actually had a pretty solid August despite what we saw on 5th August in terms of stocks the big story this morning remains uh what came out on the weekend with the board is gat gas and gspl where the board has approved a scheme of arrangement involving Gujarat St State petroleum Corporation gspc energy Gujarat State petronet merging into Gujarat gas now let's take you through what the scheme is and what the rational is the scheme of course is on your screen it will tell you what the merger is and who merges into who and what of course the outcome of that is remember the Gujarat gas holds enormous number of assets the idea of really uh consolidating and simplifying the structure is the core reason why they've gone out and done this scheme of amalgamation and of course simplification of the group companies couple of things that stood out uh for me is that the combined cash flows of the firms will of course fund organic and inorganic growth going forward their businesses will give them pricing power they will create a gigantic or entity in it self in the gas space as well uh but what you want to keep in mind is that Gujarat State petronet uh which there aren't too many brokerage notes on in terms of what their opinion on this deal is has already ran up 23% in the last 5 days clearly the markets might have had a whiff of this most believe that the upside from here could be capped largely because the stock has run up this is expected to be a lot more accretive in terms of Topline margins for gspl Gujarat gas on the other and remember post their earnings in June there were a bunch of downgrades that came in Gujarat gas is one of the most expensive Gas Distribution companies in the world we believe their numbers were not very impressive the dependence on Mori as well is a was a concern for Gujarat gas for a whole lot of brokerages what has happened in the counter Post Its earnings it's corrected substantially this morning brokerages do believe that while this could be margin creative for Gujarat gas they've still downgraded the stock so they do believe that there could be some simplification uh cost inter company cost could also reduce which will help their margins but they don't seem to convinced about what it's going to do with the stock in the medium to long term it was always expensive the dependability on morbe is a problem uh from what I believe PNG volumes coming out of Mor in the September quarter could see a significant decline of 30 uh to 40% so those are reasons why Brokers and Traders are not too big on Gujarat gas the stock is sold off gspl on the other hand has run up and hence they upside this cap even though this is good for the business in terms of stock movement uh very likely that GSP PL may continue to see some fall on buying like we saw last week Gujarat gas on the other hand uh May rationalize a little bit but no major upside expected because brokerage is unconvinced numbers were disappointing and it is expensive so despite everything else this is a this is one of the most expensive G distribution companies in the world at 22 times yeah so most people non sound convinced but GSP as well which has at 5% Arbitrage but has rallied 38% in the last 14 days and 23% in the last 5 days I mean that's significant is it byy the rumor sell the news and if that was the case then we'd see what happens to the markets over the next couple of weeks but I think this one's important to track and it's also important to remember that why you're seeing what is happening on Gujarat gas right uh with the whole Mor piece even though this will simplify the assets uh operationally it may not be it is a tough business for them at this stage and it's an expensive stock well the other ones that I have an eye on is nbcc and the reason I mentioned this is because uh I mean n wasn't tamam and me were tracking this one uh there was news early last week that they were going to do a bonus issue and the markets got very excited rewarded the stock significantly on Tuesday come Wednesday there was a correction Thursday the stock picked up Friday it corrected so there was a lot of confusion around what that bonus issue would be unfortunately the bonus issue may not be as good as existing shareholders would like they've approved for every two shareholders in the company you get one bonus issue though if it was a one is to one you'd have seen a good positive reaction but because of that uncertainty around it it's had a volatile last week and if I had to put money on this I think the stock would see another down day in trade today because I don't think investors are going to be too impressed by the uh bonus issue deal the other one is a quiet one byor and I'm highlighting this because Farm has been such a sweet spot to be in right for the last week for the last few months it's slowly and gradually uh moving up while we've been focusing on it it's Pharma that's had a good run even last week Pharma index was up about 3 and a half% they've received a pretty significant approval that's com in for a uh for a drug called depoy which is used to treat skin infections we will understand the size of the market on this one and bring you more analysis on it but sentimentally a huge positive on Bon I believe so gspl up G Gujarat gas down nbcc down Bon up I it's a good mix I don't understand why bonus issues excite investors because it's it's it's not like you're actually it's the same value of the share split so even the if it's a dividend paying company even r i mean it was a pretty tepid response to the bonus issue at the end of it it it really depends on who's doing it cdsl last week the markets loved it there must be other reasons to come in all right so what do I have on my radar let's start start with auto stocks all the sales numbers came in in August uh so big picture over here is the second straight month of uh sales numbers actually coming down for OEM for auto companies uh one of the reason is strategic they have more inventory pile up at the dealership so they're strategically letting less stock out of the factory gate let's put it that way but if you break it down as per how what it means for each company TVs I would say is a thumbs up because they've outperformed their estimate of a 9% growth uh for sales in the month of August maruti sales have actually dropped lesser than expected the it's deg grown as they say in the industry at 3% versus 5% expected and as per strategy so I would actually say that's a thumbs up not a thumbs down uh tataa Motors commercial vehicle sales dropped 15% higher than expected uh that's a thumbs down and Aisha Motors uh saw a drop of 5% which will also perhaps not be taken too well so that's the auto pack of course the other ones are the Bajaj uh Finn and baj fin Ser Story I mean through the week all of last week the buzz with baj Fin and baj fin surf was just really phenomenal look at the last whole 1 month is about 7% as well uh the news that has driven it is finally out Bajaj Housing Finance IPO has been announced uh it could further excite investors it's classic value unlocking um for Bajaj finance and of course uh the holding company baj finv while it's also interesting it's a 6,560 CR IPO with a fresh issue of 3,560 crores 500 cror of that is reserved for existing shareholders and baj finance will benefit from the offs offer for sale of 3,000 or CR so that's straight in uh money coming in for them uh what you need to look at of course is the recent runup is there more steam left and valuations as they come in so that is something that investors will gauge but sentimentally uh since the news has come in you could see a bit of an upside today as well um the third bucket of stocks are the newly minted navratnas so a few more have been added to the list um solar energy cor rail ta sjvn and nhpc have all received navaratna status so apart from the sentimental boost why it matters is that if you're a navaratna PSU you can invest up to 1,000 crores or 15% of your total wealth in a single Project without needing government approval so it just gives you a little more agility in terms of um you know strategic moves as a company so these are some I don't know P psus have not been uh the favorites uh will this give them a little boost today at least sjvn we'll have to wait and see and watch Century textiles just watch out for that one one stock before we go to manprit uh unit Bera Estates in COD develop and pack for 131 acre land parcel in NOA utar Pradesh this apparently is a big one so watch out for some bit of an upside on open for Century textiles let's get in manprit Gil Chief investment officer of Africa Middle East Asia and Europe at Standard Chartered with us man thank you so much for waiting by patiently we just had to finish off some of the stocks before we get to you so really appreciate this joining in so early in the morning manprit um but it's great to look at mornings these days because across the world uh risk assets seem to be uh moving higher in anticipation of the rate cut or the easing cycle are you constructive risk assets like equities or are you cautious uh morning yes I I think we are constructive but I think we're looking at exactly the same balance to say look economic growth earnings growth all of that argues that risk assets should remain well supported and the fact that we're getting now to the point where Europe has already major central banks in Europe have already cut rates the FED in our view will start cutting rates that should all be a big Tailwind I think what we're trying to balance that is you know how much of that is already in the price because if I look at you know the market expectations of Fed rate cuts a lot of those are are already in the price and that's of course coming at a time in the year when September says seasonally tends to be a much softer month and obviously we are rising uncertainty in form of Elections geopolitics so that's that's the reason why we've taken a little bit more of a balanced approach saying look the Baseline path still is all of these factors particularly rate Cuts uh should prove to be a Tailwind uh but we just want to balance that a little bit more than usual with uh you know uh owning high quality Bonds on the side and indeed gold so I think that's really the way we're positioning ourselves at this point in time particularly after being overweight in a year when equities have done very very well in India but indeed almost in all major markets around the world keeping risk Ward as your backdrop and a Fed rate cut around the corner buy the news sell or buy the rumors sell the news what are you doing with India we've done well we've done decently well year to date everything seems under control uh what's the trade on India right now well I think on India our regional views haven't changed I think what we've done is sort of trim at a global level you know just how much how larger exposure to equities is but within Asia you know in our view the case India remains or Indian equities remains pretty strong because it's still you know in the region the market where earnings growth and economic growth is most compelling yes you know you do pay a price in terms of relative valuations but we still think that's far more compelling than you know more inexpensive markets in North Asia but in North Asia you know in China we still have growth concerns uh you know how that sort of policy makers balance out uh the need for supporting growth with the the idle in avoidance of re-inflating more Bubbles and many other you know Regional markets are more sort of sector specific So Korea taian of course being more you know semiconductor sector specific so in that context we think Indian Equity still stand out quite positively uh we still like Indian bonds as well uh so we think India is not just an equity story you know the bond yield is still attractive relative to other Emerging Market local local currency markets U so both in both fronts we still think India makes a compelling case on Regional grounds I think it's just about how much rist we want to carry at this point in the year especially after both have performed you know quite well uh year to date um manit uh just you know getting your sense of um the question of valuations and we keep talking about it here from a global investor interest perspective also it becomes a big conversation is it such a big deal right now in terms of how uh richly India is valued in terms of equity okay something we do need to watch quite closely uh because look on the positives in Rising markets uh usually valuations go up right we see that in every cycle nothing wrong in that um investors usually will pay a much much higher multiple uh for a positive story and usually in Emerging Markets you tend to see the average you know rating sort of get rated higher as the longer term Outlook improves the other way we've been looking at it is to say are valuations justified by current earnings and productivity so looking at Price to Book versus Roe actually Indian equities together with the US they stand out as having elevated earnings but arguably they justified by the higher return on Equity compared to what you get elsewhere in the world now there are some longer term questions of okay if you add more of these you know valuations what does that mean for you know the next sort 10 year type returns but it's not a Reason by itself to say look you know don't add more today because it doesn't tell you anything about the next you know six Monon return so we think they're on the elevated side no doubt it's something we want to keep a close watch on but we do think they're justified by you know the return on Equity we do think they're justified by the growth Outlook so I think it's really about balancing it together with all the other factors rather than worrying about valuations alone thank you manre we' have loved to chat with you longer hopefully we can have an extended conversation closer to the Federate cut but until then have a good week and we'll see you soon well that was manprit of course breaking it down for us so while we're so uh stuck up on equities it does seem like bonds Indian bonds is what Global Investors like we should be taking some heart from that because that seemed to be an important talking point early in the early part of this year after India's inclusion on a couple of those International indexes but uh from Global to local and the local big talking point this morning is going to be Auto Sale numbers that have slightly or rather disappointed the street uh we have with us a research analyst mumuk uh joins us from Anand rati mes pardon me if I pronounced your name wrongly and please correct me and tell me how I should pronounce it uh and also what have you made of those Auto Sale numbers the street may not be very enthused because there been some degr especially with the likes of a maruti yeah hi uh so good morning everyone uh my name is mumuk and uh so just on the volume side uh so I would say two wheer PV were broadly uh what we expected uh where two wheeler for industry would be say high single digit and the PV would be a slight decline uh while the I think disappointment more on the CV side where decline was more than what we expected uh somewhere High single digit fall uh so here on the CV side I think the uh post the election we had uh the uh the infra capex activity yet to pick up and uh as also some unable base there so again that will change better in second half so again I think CV should pick up in second half so uh that's how I view this uh month for the all these segments while tractor's numbers are not yet out for the available yet mumuk hi morning Tam here just want to get a sense of whether this whole narrative that this is as per strategy right uh a lot of companies wanted to reduce their output or their sales this month because of inventory buildup uh would that be seen as a positive at all uh considering it's at the end of the day talking about demand getting a bit sluggish and and yeah and then let's break it down uh and let's start with two beers on which ones look decent to you in terms of the numbers you've seen so in two wheer I mean hero was around 5% uh uh TVs was double digit uh just I sure was muted a slight decline uh so uh in two wheel I mean it was what we expected um uh and I think uh baj and Honda should also do well so uh two wheelers should remain at high single digit uh there the momentum continue to remain strong yeah and py obviously there's a lot of high base there uh uh PV has seen a very good cycle over last 3 four years and uh now I think High base there's some moderation in demand uh so I mean PV this obviously will be a little muted here and as you mentioned there has been some inventory correction uh like like of maruti has corrected for like few days of inventory correction uh so uh obviously I this year we see PV to be sof while two wheer to be robust uh and CV should pick up in second enough how I see for the the segments uh mumuk just want to get your take specifically on maruti there was degrowth of about 3% but a little less than how it was expected do you think the street will see that negatively today or just muted I think neutral would be the thing uh uh somewhat neutral um because not I mean obviously it's a decline still uh and though so I would say it's a neutral thing for maruti for maruti I think uh a goinge I think obviously this year is challenging for the industry itself so for for Mari also would be challenging uh but again say next year onwards uh uh with demand picking up they should also do well and also now with the hybrids getting more focus and the new launches in hybrids could help them do better over say next two to three year perspective M morning just seems to be that four-wheeler companies because even tataa Motors four-wheeler the car numbers also declined three OD per independent of the fact that CVS were weak so would it be fair to assume that four-wheelers versus two wheelers till the end of the year two wheelers might be in a slightly better Space versus four-wheeler companies and if so what is your pecking order sure so uh so how I see that two wheeler will grow in double digit for this year as well and also for next year also we are factoring a double digit growth for two wheeler uh so where the two wheeler names are remains a preferred peak in the O pack along with the hero as a Best Bet and uh uh and while on the PV side we particular like m& uh where uh though uh I mean industry soft but they will do a double digit growth and there the tractor is single cyclical recovery uh so that would be the name we like and also uh with the CV cycle uh would somewh get bottoming out uh and see recovery from second half then the asuk L also looks good uh at current levels so this would be the pcks in the o space quick followup here so the expectations are that this month &m tractors will show a or the month gone by M&M tractors will show a decline maybe %. that's the consensus your numbers may be slightly different but my question is we know tataa motor CV has shown a decline 13% &m May sure decline between 10 and 15% you are baking in a recovery starting the season of sorts for CVS and tractors so yeah so uh that's what basically Trend wise we see a reversal uh uh I mean generally uh post election things pick up in CV side and uh because of obviously election the the capex and the infra got slow down uh so there we expect the change and again on Q4 of this year there's a lot of fable base for the MCV cycle also so that also will help them buses are doing really well so buses itself growing at 20% can add a 2 to 3% goow for the MCV so so I mean all these factors should uh see a positive growth a good 5% positive growth for the MX for this year and uh then obviously it should continue next year as well all right thank you so much Mok great speaking with you so Auto in focus a whole host of stocks in Focus this morning but let's get the fno Outlook with aam who's joining us now yes aam oh well right well Friday was a great day of trade because we ended on well another life high and that's where the Nifty is right now and while we have seen a little bit of positive traction we're see also seeing a little bit of unwinding when it comes to the bank Nifty so we're interesting the Poise at the moment with the way things are panning out let's start by taking a look at the Nifty Futures the September Futures adding about 5.2% in open interest even as the index advances by around 4% and moving on to the bank Nifty future we've seen unwinding of around 1 and a half% not too much to speak for otherwise there all in all it's still fairly quiet though there well you know we we're looking at new life highs for the nifty50 and speaking of New Life highs have we seen a change in the range that we're expecting and working with yes we have on the higher end we have seen activity now shift between 25,500 and 25,700 in terms of calls and that's where the indices may see a little bit bit of zone of resistance of SS on the higher end of course on the lower end we're starting to see a lot of strengthening of the 25,000 Mark as one which will give you a little bit of support based on the kind of writing that we've seen in puts not only in the 255,000 mark but also 25100 and 25200 going in now it was a good day of trade which means that we also saw a lot of Longs as far as stocks are concern so let's pull that up so Longs for balamur Chini it was a good day of trade in general for the Sugar Space Hindustan COA ban bank and sjin international also looking at Longs among stocks which are seeing unwinding we had short covering for Deepak nitrite LTI and ramco cement but this is as far as stock specific action is concerned just on the back of what happened on Friday remember that we've also seen the the sebbi formalize well the latest in terms of what we can expect with respect to adaption of how new stocks can be included and excluded as far as where your futures and option space is concerned and based on that we also have a NV note which actually is telling us a little bit more about um well how well the kind of stocks that you can in fact see in inclusion and exclusion so if we can bring for you on your screen there uh in terms of uh you know the kind of TR that the the the stock list so let's start by taking a look at the exclusions first the potential exclusions uh would of course be on your on on your screen there so those are a handful of names which are actually seeing not enough liquidity so names like Abott India Metropolis granal to a certain extent City Union Bank are some of those prominent names in that particular list uh well Nama has also identified 80 stocks that could be potential entrance and this one this list makes for a little bit more of an interesting place so you have like names like zomato PTM something like a Nika a scient as well as something like an NBC see all of them are looking at a potential entry point as far as the Futures and option space goes now this is your overall well stance of things and in terms of stock futures and how what you could potentially expect going forward but let's take this conversation forward in terms of how you can play the current markets and for that we have Ajit ramar Aira Ventures who's joining us on the show right now Ajit good morning thank you so much for joining in let's start with your view on the markets and how you're using options in this case good morning Aram thanks for the we are currently witnessing an impressive rally in the market with the Nifty Rising for 12 consecutive days this remarkable momentum suggests that we might see the Nifty reaching the 26,500 level in the near short term so there are minor resistances at 25,700 and 26,000 levels looking at the open interest but the overall trajectory remains very bullish uh so there are a couple of key factors firstly there's been strong retail inflow into the markets which has been a significant driver of this rally additionally corporate quy results have been quite robust uh forther boosting investor confidence and fueling market gains uh based on that Ajit I believe you have a well a slightly bullish uh Ting towards the bank Nifty can you take us through the option structure that you're deploying here yeah so looking at the slow and steady Rises indices we can deplo in Bank Nifty we can deploy very risk very low risk bullish butterfly call strategy uh so for this current uh weekly expiry where we buy one ATM call of 51,4 which is priced at 272 we sell two calls of 51,6 which which are priced at 177 and hedge it with buying one call of 51,800 which is pric at 110 so the total investment or the maximum loss of the strategy is mere 28 rupees for the possible gain of 200 rupes there you have it and of course the the POS your most amount of gain that you can potentially make is that around 51,6 going in considering that's where you uh you know sold two lots coming through but uh Ajit you're also tracking IEX can you tell us about why and what sort of an option structure you're deploying here so ex has given a breakout we are bullish on this counter it is a uh it has given a breakout around 200 levels so we can initiate a bull call spread strategy where we buy 1 atm this is a very simple strategy where we buy one ATM call of 205 which is an ATM call at 8:30 and sell one otm call which is priced at around 235 uh the call of 230 so the net investment in the Strat is M 5.95% to gain a potential of rup 20 so every time we try to keep keep very little money on the table and and if our view comes true then we gain a lot so the risk reward is very good in all the strategies absolutely a well on that note thanking you for joining us and taking us through your views on the markets and also uh giving us a couple of strategies to work with this Monday morning with that it's back to you all thank you for that yes those exclusions as well and inclusions may keep some of those stocks active in today's day of trade remember uh the exclusion and inclusion could happen as early as December 2024 the PSP criteria uh inclusion exclusions though will not happen till the following year but the big St and look at that implied Nifty is actually turned positive it was trading rather flat this morning it was up about two points now 17o gain on the implied Nifty so we should be setting ourselves up for a morning of consolidation with hopefully a positive bias but the big talking point on the whole on the street this weekend and this morning will remain the approval of amalgamation of Gujarat gas Gujarat state petronet which is announced a new scheme of arrangement this will help the government of Gujarat consolidate its Assets in the energy business through various companies well this will result in two entities post the transaction and Mika standing by with more on this MAA good morning you've done considerable amount of work on what the scheme of amalgamation is going to mean for companies markets potentially at a whiff of this because G was up 25% in the last 5 days while Gujarat gas has been on the Sal side since its earnings now that could be attributed to it being a very expensive company the fact that Mor still is going to show decline in PNG volumes in September but all that aside what do you have for us what does this mean for both all companies included and then shareholders of course good morning I'll start with what the scheme is we can break it up into two in the first part three companies Gujarat State petroleum Corporation guat petronet and GSP energy will merge into Gujarat gas now after this the transmission business will be carved out separately and a new company named gspl transmission will be listed separately so at the end Gujarat gas will carry out businesses of City Gas Distribution gas trading expiration and production while the transmission business will be you know working separately in terms of swap ratios well for the Gujarat State petroleum Corporation Mo into Gujarat gas 10 shares of Gujarat gas will be issued for every 305 shares h for Gujarat State ponet 10 shares of Gujarat gas will be issued for every 13 shares held in gspl um for um jspl energy no issuance of shares since it's a holy subsidary and when the GSL transmission business is um um you know demerge it will issue one share of the company for every three shares held in Gujarat gas now this will lead to a total issuance of 78.6 6 CR shares on behalf of Gujarat gas but most of these do get extinguished because all these companies have various stakeholding in each other um and lastly in terms of timeline where the company expects SE approval um by uh December of 2024 and the entire scheme of arrangement will be completed um by July to August of 2025 maker uh what do brokerages make of this and what do valuation suggest I mean I just want to understand who is going to win and who is not because from the look of it GS shareholders at least in terms of stock performance are gaining for now yes um you know when you talk about valuations now the deal does seem very fairly uh value now in terms of guat State Petron the entire company is valued around 26,000 gr but the core business is valued around only 3,500 to 4,000 CR and the company's Investments are where the majority of the valuations come in 24,000 to 25,000 CR but for guat State petroleum um it's valued around 21,000 CR the gas trading and EMP um business is valued around 11,400 CR and the implied EV to have B done multiple for the core businesses around seven times which is in line with industry standards when you talk about jeffre mix um when you talk about brokerages sorry mixed views Jeff maintains an underperforming rating on Gujarat gas they do say that you know um the merer will improve Gujarat gas's margin profile but it also increases the earnings volatility and post of the mer of guat gas can have a fair value of 513 rupees which is around 15% downside to the current market price and last we have MK they also have a maintain they've reduced maintain a reduced rating on the stock at a 600 Target that's a flat up upside or downside the valuation and they expect the merer to imply 50% % EPS accretion for Gujarat gas all right thank you for that very very detailed look at what's happening with Gujarat uh gas Mika and you know it's a mixed view from brokerages to be honest not everyone is so gangho on the Gujarat gas um sort of split up or reworking of their scheme of arrangement but let's also hear what the management is saying the management business growth projections for DGL estimate it to be it to become one of the India's largest integrated player with presence of gas steing and City Gas Distribution business ggl will be able to better leverage the combined assets and expanded Capital base all put together it will enhance its profitability and return ratio on account of various gas sourcing portfolios which the gspc is bringing along with it the cash flow generated by the combined businesses can be deployed more efficiently in future to organic and inorganic opportunities which are going to rise in the expanding energy Market it shall become the only C company having access to access and also in expertise to various sourcing portfolio directly from domestic as well as International Market it also has regasification capacity tied up resulting Better Business Synergy the combined entity will benefit from a stronger Market presence enable better pricing power and the ability to capture a larger share of the growing demand for natural gas I would summarize that the ultimate objective of the scheme of arrangement is to simplify the layer group structure second merge various Interlink businesses into one entity we are also looking towards eliminating related party transactions the scheme of arragement will also unlock value for our shareholders okay so Gujarat gas definitely on the watch list what else is on the watch list today on NDTV profit well we're looking at OMC that's uh all the positives on your screen first up uh 1 lak CR of green energy investment lemon tree has a new packed every day in a different place this time it's Amritsar so they have a hotel license packed Lem Tre might have a good morning Fortis has bought 31.5% of agilus Health uh then you have insecticide buyback of 50 CR at 1,000 for share and of course textile St stocks to be watched for the India UK FDA which is on track well you've got biocor I think this one's a good one for them the usfda has given a n for Two drugs to cure skin infection baj Finance these baj group companies have been on a tear last week will continue to do well on back of its IPO for Bajaj housing AB Capital they've had a 50% stake sale solar energy has G been given naan status realt and nhpc also have a naan status okay adani energy will be buying uh kavada transmission GSL plus Gujarat gas we spoke about in detail the merger is looking positive Century textiles has a 131 acre development pack adani an has an airport PLC in Kenya and GE power has a order for a Sim Hydro project whole list today because of the weekend lots and lots of stocks M armi they expect to acquire Helios lifestyle adani power to acquire Coastal energy GPT in on a big order win hpl power name changed so no impact on stock but could be a good one to watch indan y small 2,000 market cap company but they've w got an LOL for an irrigation project okay there's so many to go through Tata steel merger with India steel wire Federal Bank appoints KVs money and finally TVs Auto numbers Aisha also Auto numbers tcns has a merger finally happening with abfrl was in the works for a while uh Tata steel uh is is the other one which we just spoke about Mari yeah I think uh just to add to the auto list maruti numbers were disappointing the stock may give this the street may give it a thumbs up uh so keep this one too on your radar on the cell side on the cell side that list is in front of you tataa Motors August CV sales have dropped 15% State won't like that Aisha as well has registered numbers that were slightly weaker for August HD fcmc watch out for this one LC's cut it stake down to 2.9% from 4.9 on on Friday and HDFC life is a GST demand of 199 crores you also have DRL where one of their significant drugs has been sub suspended an M moil that has been a price cut for them okay let's go to our speakers this morning Kush Bora founder at Kush bor.com joining us Soni patnayak AVP at JM Financial Services with us adityas sha H founder at Hercules advisor also with us very good morning to all of you and of course exciting day uh you know coach let me start uh with a bit of uh this newfound bullishness we've seen in markets and uh the mood kind of changing towards the last couple of days of the week uh last week do you see that momentum now continuing first up a very good morning to all of you and to all the viewers well U you know let me let me also uh touch upon that point that new fund bullishness a bit right I came across a very interesting study over the weekend which is uh at the start of the year you know the top 20 us investment Banks they put out a Target on the S&P 50000 which was on an average 4,900 the S&P 500 right now is at 5650 so if you would have gone by that estimate you would have missed the 15% upside that's there on the index alone let alone what the stocks have done why do I put this forth because you know a lot of us have been having been having this discussion around uh you know when the markets are going to correct how deep is the correction going to be my point is that if you've seen over the last four years you know we've not seen any kind of meaningful correction the only way to make make money in this market is to either stay uh you know invested or at least you know have some sort of position in it you know you can't stay out definitely you can't go short so my point is you know let the correction come you're better off reacting to that rather than perhaps you know uh anticipating it you know biting your time you know waiting it out and hence uh for the last couple of sessions you know if you've seen about 8 10 OD sessions even we've turned bullish where we've said I think 26,000 is the next Milestone to watch on the Nifty so I think you should continue to play for that rotation stock specific action will continue but I think you know this this momentum is here to continue for a while which is uh which is great as well because timing the market on the downside has not worked out well so are you what is the call on the index um from Muk Kush on the Nifty or is it the bank Nifty what is it today what does somebody do today once the market starts so um both the indices are in a buy kind of a setup the momentum for sure we know is with the Nifty the bank Nifty has some headwinds around the 515 100 Mark which is the 50-day moving average resistance also there is some call writing that we are seeing so that is acting up on the bank Nifty but I'm still fairly constructive I think this you know resistance will be taken out fairly early and 50 to2 200 is what you're looking at on the bank Nifty Nifty I think the base has shifted 25,000 the put base that you're seeing now will act as a support so if you've got a position you should continue to hold plus I think you know Samina alluded to this uh know the start of the show which is for more than 30 years you know this hasn't happened where we've clocked 12 12 consecutive sessions of gains so just on the account of that if there is some pullback I don't think that's you know any kind of a worry or a cause of concern so if that dip does come about you know you're better off going long on the Nifty I think we're looking at 25,700 26,000 as the positional targets if you have a position continue to ride it if you don't look to buy maybe at slight dips 00 points uh that'll be better off H Kush I know I keep coming back to bank Nifty and I would like to sort of agree with what you said but let's also get another view with Sony on the same one Sony uh what about you what is your trade on the index and do you feel like September could be a month which will Mark A a comeback by B Bank Nifty good morning everyone uh thank you for having me on the show uh see I think September and October historically have been known to be quite volatile months if you look at individual indices Nifty is holding above a very crucial base of 25,000 so as long as it continues to hold above that it's all fair and well it may test 25400 25500 it will be difficult to say where it actually goes in stop so I think it's important to watch for Nifty only if it closes below 25,000 we can say that you know there can be some profit booking that can start for the series talking about Bank Nifty I think Bank Nifty is still in performing there's not a lot of confirmed data that is indicating Bank Nifty can take that lead it is still in that range of 51,000 to 52,000 and very close to that support so if it ever breaks and closes below 51,000 I would go for a contra sell in that uh index because I feel that you know there can be some positional selling some positional pressure that can see in Bank Nifty towards 50,500 50,400 instead it still does not remain a Buy on dips for me it is very much in a consolidation range and there's no individual banks that we can see that can take the lead for the index to perform or outperform Nifty or other indices these sectors which are clearly forming are the nfc's financials we can see farmer in good Momentum Auto also can catch up to the momentum uh heavy weights in Bank are definitely lacking that momentum so I think I'll just avoid and wait for wait and watch for back Nifty all right let me come to uh Aditya very good morning Aditya and you know I think on a day uh when you wonder as as as journalist in The Newsroom that what's the big story today we are spoiled for choice there's just so much to discuss and so much happening uh the B uh uh Finance story is one which we have our eye on Gujarat gas obviously what do you think are going to be the two or three big factors for the market this morning and what are you watching out for uh good morning TAM U so now uh we are looking forward to the interest rate cut in the US I believe that there could be one interest rate cut that would come up by the end of this year and uh the baj housing uh Finance uh IPO is going to be very good mind you we've seen 3 years of absolutely zero return from B Finance although the business is doing absolutely fine of there has been some bit of valuation correction that has taken place on all of the large capap financials per say uh so my bet would be over a bit of next 3 to 5 years large capap financials would be a good place to be in and particularly companies like baj were now growing at about 20 25% and a whole lot of value unlocking will take place when the baj baj Housing Finance IPO is so look at large gap financials that's a good place to be in valuations have corrected not really very expensive uh good good time to bet on these companies right Sony uh what are your top stock recommendations you had quite the quite the pick last week on B soft I remember but anything else that looks really hot this Monday morning definitely soina the first would be from the farma space Metropolis so I think Metropolis has come out giving it's approach a consolidation range breakout on charts that we can see so one can buy in September Futures around 2150 or levels it's in Futures level keeping a stop loss of 2125 and a target of 2200 for the series uh the second bck would be from the chemical fertilizer space Pi Industries which also has been consolidating in a range of 4450 to 4528 Max so I think there's a preemption that you know it'll break above the 4520 4530 resistance above that it'll give you that breakout where it can lead towards a fresh high of 4600 4640 so one can accumulate to buy in the range of 4500 to 4520 keeping a stop loss of 4450 and a target of 4600 4640 all right Kush uh let's uh hear your top picks for the day and if I have to extend maybe what you're watching for the week as well sure uh a couple of updates uh before that some stocks that we discussed last week so on Monday we discussed sham Pistons you know that that stock is up 2200 was the first Target not there yet but you know that's I think you know that's a good update to have the targets not hit so there's still room on the upside uh then there was I it hits 2200 you take money off the table no I think you play for the 2300 the second target so you know continuation in fact sham Pistons is a stock that you want to continue to hold also for you know a few months I wouldn't really book out too early but then if you're a Trader then 2300 is the level to watch for then IC Lombard we discussed this I think on Tuesday and that stocks hit the first Target corrected a little in terms of the profit booking but I think the overall trajectory remains 2175 2225 are the next levels to watch for and Friday we discussed vant Fashions man and this stock to has hit the first Target of 1255 now if you've got this position continue to hold for the second target of 1275 you might want to Trail your stop losses on this one uh for the day maybe even for the week you know two sectors that I think uh you know we've discussed in the morning Pharma and chemicals uh you know they are no longer defensive bets because the and I like to probably broaden the Horizon little the entire Healthcare space for the last maybe two quarters has seen some Stellar moves and you know every now and then a new name also keeps cropping up similarly for uh you know the chemical space so the two stocks that I have today one is Mankind Pharma again the stock has had a very good run but despite the kind of vertical rise that we've seen in the last month or so it's still far from those overheated territories so I think from a pure play momentum perspective also if someone wants to get in uh you know it's still a good chance uh 2550 2625 are the levels to watch for on the upside 2440 is your stop loss on the chemical space mongam Organics rarely discussed stock part it's had a very good run over the last you know 3 to four months continues to make higher highs Friday Also it closed on you know positive note on the back of good volumes so from a near-term perspective you're looking at a 555 and a 570 as the targets and 530 is your stoploss okay so a lot to unpack including the M&M numbers which have hit your screen on the face of it uh the &m uh sales numbers for the month of August are looking good but we'll break that down along with the entire Auto pack after this very short break pre-open also up next stay tuned [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] back with India market open 30 seconds left for the pre-open session to come in and some numbers on your screen as well the Mahindra and Mahindra sales numbers the car numbers seem to be very very strong what doesn't seem to be too good is the tractor number wherein the expectation was of a 5.8% uptick and the Tractor Sales have gone up by 1% but the car numbers guys whyi expectation of 2% month-on-month growth expectation of 8% and they've clocked in a double digigit number out there on the PV side so that number has looked solid at a point of time when T sorry Tata Motors as well as maruti have shown a 3% downt granted the bases are different but good numbers so Bas is different is one but even so remember when they had very aggressive pricing for a few models and that was initi seen as a negative by the street perhaps and in response to uh you know your hybrid uh subsidies Etc which the state of utar Pradesh was giving actually it maybe if you look at the minuche uh may have helped uh &m Drive uh and and they're positioning it well they're figuring out what uh the market really wants so in PV that's an interesting kind of take yeah they seem to be doing well not too many discounts are there on &m cars as somebody was telling me one or two one or two models they're picking and choosing which but very very light otherwise so look solid ad by the way the pre-open rates are on so we'll of course revisit them but for now it seems like mm could start off well adya good morning what do you do with the four-wheeler space and &m versus let's say a maruti or a Tata Motors one are you buying into four-wheeler stocks currently and if so which is the favorite uh good morning NJ so Mahindra and mahindra's update in sales could also be that they the tar the five toar and those numbers could have been uh could have been uh into the picture this month so that's why the sales upti could be there Mahindra Mahindra is a fabulous company and uh within their PV segment they are going to invest heavily over the next two to three years not only in the EV space but in the IC engine space as well and within the within the tractor space also they are Market leaders uh so one of the stocks that is our topic continues to be Mahindra and MRA we are negative tataa Motors because the stock is really very expensive now and the stock needs to consolidate here for a while before it starts starts its next level of up move rather than this two wheeler space looks really very interesting to me somebody like a TVs Motors reported a 133% growth in their numbers and that really looks good uh we'll wait for Royal Enfield and Aisha's number they also I suppose will report decent set of numbers so my preference be towards a two wheer two wheer uh two wheer side of it and the topics would be TVs and I sh course you're right TVs is going to get a good start this morning and of course with Eminem it' be interesting to see if they're seeing a rural recovery or is it Urban that continues to lead for them the other thing remember that the company was working hard was to bring down the inventory days and inventory days are now just about four to day four to 5 days above average from what I understand so largely uh they're setting the house and fixing the house just before they go into a festive season markets on the look of it at least in pre-open trade may like the what Eminem has done and the stock could be seeing a gap up in trade the same applies the tvs's of the world which also should be getting a gap up start this morning one thing that I want to quickly allude to before we continue our conversation with our guest is the IPOs and uh the listings that we have lined up this week remember you've got a very very busy week ahead with a whole bunch of companies that would be hitting uh the street you've also got uh listings that are happening so you've got Premier in energies which will debute on the exchanges on the 3rd of September so watch out for this one the Green Market premium on this one is indicating to a 45% Gap up on listing day you've also got ecost which is a chur driven company was well subscribed uh when it closed for subscription eost will be listing on the 4th of September this one too was expected to see a 35 to 40% Gap up on listing day Bazar style retail is not looking as or hasn't got the response that the EOS and the premier energies have got Eco the public issue of Baza style was only subscribed 7 times on day one uh ad I don't know whether you track some of these listings or IPOs but it'd be tough not to or tough to ignore them because that's largely been the biggest talking point and this week to you've got nfos you've got listings youve got the likes of a northern Arc as well that are hitting the markets to raise money uh do you track any of them Premier EOS uh B our style anything on your radar uh green energy uh continues to be a very very strong space and within that Premier energies continues to be in a yeah so uh it continues to be in a very good space however I don't expect the valuations at which it will get listed to be cheap and then it again goes into that expensive valuation space where it it remains unreachable for many new investors person so I would tend to say that IPOs where they are getting massive over subscriptions the gmps will lead the dist to be really very high and then those stocks continue to become aoid so be really very careful don't buy at any valuations because once the market corrects the excess fro will also come down so be really very careful but green energy space is something that uh seems to be really very good look at a few of those recent listings Sony uh I think the big trades this morning would gspl Gujarat gas and I'm going to highlight this because GSL was also at a good run last week in pre-open it's looking subdued and Gujarat gas and I'm also going to throw an nbcc because there it was again very it was rather all over the place last week on back of the bonus issue on these three stocks what are the charts indicating talk about Gujarat gas it is you know opening uh around 630 or plus levels what we can see as for the pre-open now assuming it continues to remain above the 620 level which would indicate that the option chain breakout has also come in there's a possibility for the stock to test some higher levels around 650 660 or levels for the day so I think that's the level to watch out for if you talk about nbcc nbcc I think the important level to watch out for would still be 193 195 it it's if it's able to cross that there'll be a good long range breakout in the stock which can lead it to towards 205 210 levels very important to watch however from the lower end of the stock 163 is a strong support so I think the risk reward ratio may not be favorable so it's wise for nbcc to just wait and watch and let the resistance be crossed be breach then only one can enter for a long trade keeping a stop loss of 185 back then and then a target of 210 can be see okay let's talk about our top brokerage call this morning harsh is joining us for more on that harsh what's on your radar well uh systematics they've initiated coverage on Gulf oil with nearly a 20% upside now this is interesting because uh as such they seem to be uh pivoting in terms of their business uh ice is of course getting phased out slowly and gradually and they're moving more towards the new age businesses to rely and lean on where growth is concerned one is Eevee the second is Data Centers uh Cooling in terms of data centers and lubricants for keeping data centers you know in terms of temperature control for data centers is going to drive growth going forward and what it also seems to suggest uh the note itself is that they will likely grow in terms of volumes double that of industri so they are expecting a much stronger volume growth for Gulf oil going forward largely when ice was uh The Fad at that time of course Gulf oil was a strong business to look at but as EV started to come in there was some tempering in terms of expectations terminal value Etc uh that seems to be getting phased out also because what systematic seems to believe is ice is here to coexist with Eevee and therefore ice is not going away in a jiffy either uh ice of course being the traditional internal combustion engine uh in terms of vehicles and therefore that will likely continue to drive growth as well so several lever of growth uh margins expected to remain around 1400% they're valuing this at 18 times fi 27 price to earnings uh and giving it a a Target price of 1,700 on the back of that that H is a bunch of stocks uh that have got upgrades coming in Gul oil is stopping that list Kush uh you know we've not talked to you about Auto stocks you want to give us a view if there's an auto stock you have to buy this morning for intraday let's make it exciting which one would it be Mahindra and Mahindra let me take that bet there it's there's a good chance it's opening 2% higher you're still sticking your head out on and hence a bit no I'll tell you why because I think a couple of weeks ago when had spoken about this space you know uh the view was very clear and you know it's still remains to a degree which is tataa Motors is a medium-term buy Mahindra and Mahindra also you buy for a positional play and maruti is something that you want to short or play the range you know 12,000 to 13,000 is the broad range now Mahindra and Mahindra after 15 20 sessions of consolidated rating is giving you consolidation is giving you a breakout I think this is perhaps going to help the stock hit that you know 2950 and higher levels so from a momentum perspective I think this is a good trigger tataa Motors as I said is a more medium-term play after the kind of burst that we saw you know on Friday the stock actually sort of cooled off so I'll perhaps take it easy on Tata Motors just perhaps hold it from a medium-term perspective but MRA Mahindra what about maruti marui as I said is more of a range play you know it's respected that 12,000 to 13,000 range 100 200 points here or there so every time it comes closer to 12,000 is when you enter 13,000 13200 is where you book some profits and take some money off when it breaks either of these ranges is where you'll see a more clear Direction emerge but up until then you know 12 to 13,000 the range remains so so I just want to take a look at some of the movers in the broader markets as well and all your navaratna status uh uh you know players are also doing uh fairly decently n HPC uh sjv and real T let's just pull up those three and get Sony patn in on them Sony are you seeing a breakout after a bit of a sluggish uh period for these three so if you look at nhpc definitely I think the way it is opening today above the 1520 em hurdle I think it it can continue to sustain above those resistance there's a possibility of the stock testing 108 110 levels you know maybe in a day or two and if you talk about ra Tils almost similar formation this stock also is given a good uh you know gap of opening today uh continue obviously assuming that it continues to sustain above the 500 odd levels the stock can test you know maybe around 545 550 so I think both these stocks can be held with not a lot of uh you know maybe just a one and a half% of a risk from the opening levels I think that's the stop less one can place and play out for a day or two about interglobe Aviation uh Sony are you tracking this one there's been an ATF price cut I'm assuming sentimentally interglobe should look okay in trade a percent and a half high so no runaway rally but on interlobe do you have a trade and while you're at it give us a view on om as well actually I think if we if if we talk about indigo then perhaps a Buy on dips would be a better strategy than not to jump at current levels wherever it may open regardless of that I think just wait for the levels of around 48 40 402 that range if it is seen in Indigo that can be a good level to buy a keep a stop loss of 4780 the stock can again retest 49 4930 positionally it is it may see a resistance only around 5,000 odd level so I think this range of 200 points is a beautiful play one can buy at a lower end of the range and you know book the profits on the higher end of the range I think that's the play to watch out for all right uh some more Auto Sales um updates coming in as Scot Kubota is the other one uh so Tractor Sales up about 0.4% uh this month at 5,614 units but a tad below estimates as well now um ad I just want to come to you on within the and you've spoken a bit about of course the whole Auto number play but within that larger basket would you be most bullish on two wheelers on the rural resum you know rural consumption Improvement story so uh that bucket of commercial vehicles Etc or the passenger vehicles so I will be bullish on the two wheer side of it on the two wheer side of it we've seen DVS Motors coming out with their Jupiter two wheeler and that seems to be doing pretty well Royal Enfield also continues to do pretty well so the order would be two wheelers then you will go to the rural place where somebody like escot or somebody like MRA and MRA uh Tractor Sales is there and then ultimately I move on to the fourwheeler which it stock still looks good to you to buy this week wh Pro is one that hasn't participated so I'm just guessing a catchup possible there it rarely does that and definitely not in the momentum kind of a way so you know more of an HCL Tech or a persistent is what you know I have on my radar uh plus an emphasis so these are some of the stocks you know Tech and you know then there's emphasis these stocks have got momentum by their side and you know you'd want to continue uh you know being in those or maybe continue to uh you know track those for creating any kind of fresh positions in the it space yeah another sharp mover this morning uh seems to be biocon on uh the back of uh two approvals they have got from the US FDA uh that talk about 2 and 1 half% uh pre-open not one that moves that that rapidly Sony are you seeing anything exciting happening here Bon it's a good range so I think if it's holding above the 360 for day after the Gap up that we can see uh there's a possibility for the stock to test higher levels of 375 380 that can be an intraday base I think any move above int above 380 will give you a very fresh breakout in the stock it can head towards 400 so I think it's a good buy from current levels uh if it's holding above 360 I think that itself should do the trick to keep a stop less of around 360 and hold for higher targets 380 and 400 right uh those are handful of stocks you have as you gear up for trade this morning remember it's going to be a positive buy sort of trade it'll be a morning of consolidation because we've had a very good last week and uh you know it's a stable market and what we've seen that you've had no wild swings on either sides post August 5th event so stable consolidation 25,000 is important uh Nifty needs to participate this month to help the Nifty at higher levels the market very clearly remains a Buy on dip sell lots of specific blocks so you'll have the Gujarat State stock to watch out for you'll have a whole bunch of Nan encounters Auto stocks it Pharma I mean there is so much to pick from in terms of trade and we seem to be outdoing what the implied Nifty was indicating to we are also outperforming the rest of our Global Market peers Asia is trading lower but we are trading higher 3% higher on the Nifty when the expectation was not actually expected to be very strong Bank Nifty still underperforming The Benchmark but a catchup here is what most Traders will be eyeing broader markets have been doing okay but there has been some leadership that's been coming from the large cap Index this morning the mid small and the micro cap index performing bang in line with the Benchmark a quick check of how the nifty50 is doing the bread of the market I would imagine is positive with a very clear bias to the gainers largely because you've got so many blocks like I said of interest in the markets this morning if I can get the nifty50 it should be useful so we can give some more perspective on what's moving and that's the bread fantastic to say the least you've only got five stocks that are trading lower 45 counters in the nifty50 are trading in positive territory leading with hero motor cop so the auto stocks are on the radar this one came out of really nowhere but this morning 2 1/2% on hero motop is what you have Pharma continues its upward Journey so no it's no pauses there HDFC life I don't know why it's trading higher because you've had some movement in terms of block deals there but the Stock's higher ultr Tech has a positive upgrade coming in from them omcs are doing all right in trade on the sell side tataa Motors on back of Auto Sale numbers is weaker Eminem is trading flat uh htfc maruti those are reacting to weak Auto Sale numbers Eminem slightly confused not sure whether the market should be rewarding it on the upside or downside for now Eminem is trading flat as a pancake but uh Tam it's a goodlooking market and I think I'm pleasantly surprised because we weren't expected to get a gap up it's a good Gap up now holding on to that should be interesting but the breath is solid and I think we take hard from that I mean you're sitting uh fairly easily around the 25,300 mark which I think is uh quite commendable after the kind of uh seesaw week we've had now uh you know are you going to how far how many months or weeks to 26,000 is going to be the big question but let's look at what's happening in the broader markets for a second and pull up uh the cap and small cap indices before we move forward and yeah I mean positive but flat not too much of a movement there small caps also uh barely less than half a percent up it's a stock specific kind of day so let's look at what's happening there the big story this morning about Gujarat gas and gspl that merger uh three companies out of which uh you know some are unlisted become two companies Obviously good for Gujarat Gast that's about 9% up not great for GSL that's about 4 and 1 half% up more to do with the kind of shareholder swap than anything else but yeah Gujarat gas in that sense the stock of the morning that we've been talking about navaratna status accorded to a few psus how are they reacting nhpc up 3% real and sjvn also all in positive territory around that 3% range this morning biocon we've been talking about Pharma making a bit of a comeback but slow and steady so biocor also positive but barely so about 1% up not showing the excitement they showed in the pre-open session at nbcc bonus issue was what was on radar dep it about half% up after that 1 is2 bonus but a more comprehensive look at all of the auto stocks including those that are not in the Nifty so TVs mildly in the uh green Aisha in the red but not too much their numbers uh you know less less than exciting perhaps but hero motor doing well about 2% up maruti was uh degrowth in in U complete flat because there was a degrowth in sales but that was on expected lines &m although the numbers look very very good but remember the tractor numbers are under what was expected so maybe that's what's Weighing on Eminem this morning so it's an auto story Samina it's maybe a bit of navaratna stories and it's all about Gujarat gas would Market bre I would say so it's a goodlooking market the breath is good the broader markets are Training Positive the markets have opened better than our Global peers and better than what implied Nifty was indicating to uh this is very interesting what's happening to Gujarat gas remember there is a margin ative for Gujarat gas on this deal but the stock was an expensive stock and the fact remains that brokerages have actually not gone on and aggressively upgraded the counter either but maybe because it sold off so substantially in the last 1 month the stock is recovering really well a 10% up move on Gujarat Gas Post the announcement of the merger well gspl on the other hand which uh is supposed to benefit has already ran up 20% so what you're seeing this morning is profit taking uh is profit taking on GSP and Gujarat gas on the other hand is holding steady sjv and Tam indicated the Navan status is good news for them the counters are trading with a very clear positive bias Kalan Jewelers is also up 2 and a half% GW energy forus Healthcare U Max are some of the other beginners on the Nifty 500 on the cell side I have a few more that are looking slightly lower Dixon Tech PB fintech after a good run last week sees some profits being taken off the table midcap it so kpit Tech is down about 2% prestigious trading low remember they've got a big Q G will hit the market soon oil India BC vone are trading subdued in the session well so that's what we have it's a it's a good-look market for whatever it's worth sectorally real estate is taking a knock this morning but most of the sectors are trading deeply in positive territory the Wix has also sprung up just a little bit as we see it just one thing though there is a 5% Arbitrage on Friday's closing price of Gujarat gas this move fine Gujarat gas the market likes why is it that GSL is punished with the 5% Arbitrage is the key question so either of them have to reverse either we need to see gspl price recover or Gujarat gas come off a bit because the ratio is firmly in favor of GS but GSP will not sell off the it will play catch up there could be some profits getting off the table because of this 20 and there you go GSP is moved from yeah so it's only a matter of time I think the day will play out and Gujarat gas I'm not sure why it's at upper circuit it's still the big question mark value unlocking so maybe this whole holding company structure getting completely discounted cost is going to come down because interc company uh cost is what is high for them margins will improve but it is still an expensive stock their earnings were still disappointing you will still they've in fact gone out and given a guidance that volumes are going to drop Six to 7% going into the next quarter yeah but who's to say the street lik whole valuation question is a is is in a different trajectory in in any case but um I mean I don't know I don't know if gspl is going to make that upside that you're saying n because there's a 5% Arbitrage so if Gujarat gas has to stay up higher if the street believes in its wisdom that Gujarat gas should deserve this 10% uptake or an 8% uptake GSL ideally logically by virtue of that Arbitrage should move higher all right B Auto sales numbers also out as we speak let's just quickly look at what's happening to the stock total sales at 16% at 3.97 lakh units it's doing okay paj AO has had a good run uh two wheeler sales up 18% remember they're getting aggressively into the eeve game as well and uh that's that's boarded well for Bajaj Auto all right quick take from Kush and Sony on how they're seeing the markets pan out after the first few minutes of the opening session uh Kush anything interesting you're spotting and any take on the indices I mean the Nifty uh holding on fairly strong in the opening session it is and you know there's a certain addition of OI that we're seeing on the 25200 put so is the base shifting Higher by another 200 points I looks like that and the bank Nifty also testing that 50-day moving average resistance so if it breaks then there could be some you know upside still left for the day now on the stock specific front I think five star uh business you know this is starting to look uh very interesting it's had a good reversal uh the last uh you know leg from the technical standpoint was the 50-day moving average which it hadn't crossed up until Friday today it's opened above that sustaining above that so I think you know this is one thing one stock that can move significantly higher from here from a trading perspective you're looking at a 785 800 plus kind of move on this one 750 is you know a good support zone so you can keep your stop loss there so five star business uh you know has turned the corner on the 50-day moving average as well and looking up right five star is the one that you're picking that's a cush trade coming in Sony anything you have for a viewers intraday after What markets have done this morning it's actually a good start contrary to our expectations uh certainly so know one would be in Sun TV which would be a you know conditional buy I think there's somewhere around 827 830 is a bit of a hurdle for intad day now if it if it's able to cross at 830 level the stock can test 855 860 for the day I think that's the level one can watch out for and a support of 818 from those levels can be kept as a stop loss so that's one stock the other stock would be in commin India that we can see the stock is just crossing the 20 EMA hurdle so there's a possibility the stock can test at 3820 3830 for the day and a stop loss of 3740 from current levels can be seen I think these two stocks may be same some Stocks by the way Indian Hume pipes on that irrigation order from Maharashtra is up 10% with total traded quantities on the BSC at you nearly 50,000 versus an average quantity of 16,000 shares for entire day so 2 we average quantity so very high volumes there and a couple of other stocks one of them which Kush Bai pointed out earlier 2 3 weeks ago watch out for small upticks already on both JM financial and Allied blenders now both of these have had a good head run last week and are starting off well today Kush I remember you had spoken about JM Financial is there more upside here the other one is Allied blenders Splendid move last week picked it buying from the open market and 2% up again today so uh let's let's start with JM Financial I mean this is this is one stock that isn't usually discussed but you know for the last uh you know five or sessions at least you know we've seen good momentum return uh I think this momentum can continue There is a very strong volume action on this one so you know I wouldn't be surprised to see uh you know 115 120 kind of move in the near term on GM Financial Allied blenders 2 has picked up quite a bit limited data on this one so that's perhaps if I you know look at it from a smaller time frame then the momentum indicators do suggest an upside on this one as well but again very limited uh data for the moment just quickly an Allied blenders I think or dis blenders and distillers is that there was uh I think new was it that had done had gone and met the management and very constructive and a few weeks ago uh while they are the big daddies in the India market they are looking at Bringing Down the Russian Standard and Bangkok based th beverage you in Thailand you should tell us whether there is an audience for that but that is probably what's working for them because after a part de no idea this any I don't think this is the beverage which was alcoholic coconut water oh is that right is that right te Toler but maybe that's what's playing out because after a positive debut on the exchanges it had gone quiet and now with the new's of course conversations with them the fact that they are expanding their Global portfolio or they offering with global of P with a global brand could probably help the distribution one more very small thing sorry before we move on but on Allied blenders with the IPO proceeds they brought down the debt in a big way so therefore the interest savings will start getting factored in or showing next quart or this quarter itself and therefore you might well see the numbers improve on the bottom line as a result of Interest cost yeah and I think they are going ham in terms of you know product launches as well so much happening for the company and of course Mr chabra has been in the business for decades together together but uh that's the word coming in on Allied blenders but anything else that we're identifying this morning I I just wanted to get a view from uh Sony if she's there on baj Auto since uh we have those sales numbers coming in and I know we've been talking a fair amount about Auto stocks only but just you know as the numbers are coming in how are you liking baj Auto already fair amount of run up and we've seen Auto stocks in the first few minutes of trade pair off after the initial reactions but baj Auto now going strong I think Tam of course I think rightly pointed out the stock has seen a very strong uptrend it's just continuing in that uh if we ask about the current levels to enter at current levels and the risk reward ra may not be favorable there's a good support of 10,500 so maybe anywhere closer to the support if that a dip is if the dip is seen then only I think it's wise to just reinitiate the Longs around those levels the stock has the potential on a medium-term play it can test 11 800 12,000 but it it'll be a medium play I think that's the levels to watch out for and try to add on dips only I think that would be the advice to all the investors from current level well that's the call coming in Bajaj interesting play while Eminem numbers were actually good the stock is trading lower maybe it's an opportunity to go into the counter if one's looking to trade it Kush this was your pick this morning you still hold it and keep with it absolutely uh go and buy sure for sure yeah and just that you know the momentum play might be done because the news is out but you know nothing changes for me you know if you've got a slightly medium-term Horizon then definitely you know there's a good consolidation play uh you know in the offing if you want to hold on for some time then for sure this is a good time to enter good time to buy Eminem that's the word coming in Sony you want to quickly come in on Eminem would you buy it at the current market price it's open lower contrary to what pre-open was indicating to I think Eminem I would be I I would hold it as a conditional buy it was not able to sustain the higher Gap ups only fit on intraday basis able to cross above 2825 which will indicate that the option chain breakout has come then only one can enter and Longs for those levels it can head towards 2900 if it's not able to cross those levels then there's a possibility the stock can test towards 2740 2720 range and that dip also can act as a Buy on a dip range but either way either side of the range has to be tested for a you know for for a positional Play to work out all right thank you so much Sony thank you kush for joining us today uh it's been an exciting morning and I think one of the most exciting stories this morning is what's happening in Gujarat gas and we have just the right person to talk to us about it proel sen senior research analyst Indian oil and gas sector institutional equities icsa securi with us now PR very good morning to you and you know this is I mean excellent time to talk to you once the market has sort of um responded and in ingested what been happening with Gujarat gas let's start with a big question we've been discussing in the studio why the love for Gujarat gas and a bit of concern about gspl from the market this morning uh honestly uh yeahi am I audible yes absolutely prob all right sorry uh so I think the concern around gspl is not so much really a fundamental concern it's more I think that the stock markets had already had an incling in some way of what was going to happen to the story and uh you know and therefore probably there was a bit of profit booking of people who had built up positions earlier if you look at the price on Friday uh the stock was already close to 5% of the swap Arrangement uh you know derived fair price so thankfully the stock is again now coming back to the 465 OD levels which is you know implied by the merger ratio So to that extent I would say that gspl is more of a you know short-term tactical moves that were basically being done because of the fact that the stock had reacted early Gujarat gas very clearly uh you know is something that is likely to benefit from uh this move which is what the stock has basically reflected a bit more than what we estimated but that's okay I think I think we still remain fairly positive on the name as of now yeah absolutely uh just just one more Point uh Trel I mean you've you've explained and you very good note out where you've explain in detail what will help but just for the benefit of our viewers uh apart from a strategic I Outlook to this merger in terms of earnings what is the implication for Gujarat gas so what is happening is if you look at the gas trading portfolio of gspc about 45% of the gas used to be transported or sold to Gujarat gas itself on which they would make somewhere around 2 and a half three rupees they've not disclosed exactly the margin mix between what they were selling to Gujarat gas versus what they were selling to someone else but broadly speaking of the 1112 mmmb of the trading portfolio they were they sustainably can make about 1,000 KES of aita so if you add that number to Gujarat gas plus there is about 2300 CR of cash that gsdc had uh which you know you can basically say between anywhere between 180 to 200 CR is probably the other income potential that gets added on and of course there would be some depreciation cost that get added and so on net of everything else your PBT can actually average around 3500 OD cores as is you know we've given an calculation in the note as well now most importantly you've got a 72 billion rupee tax loss that you can actually utilize over the next 3 years which effectively means whatever you earn on the PBT line flows through to the net earnings line so put together that is basically what is adding the 15 odd rupees Delta in terms of eps on our current base case estimates for Standalone earnings so the number goes from somewhere around 2122 rupees which we have as published estimates today to an estimated 37 38 rupees uh basically once the deal is consumated and everything uh is regularized so that is really the big jump that we see in terms of earnings most importantly if you look at the savings that they could make in terms of the margins that they no longer have to pay gspc there is a sustainable Improvement in gas costs therefore uh going forward which they can either partially retain they can fully retain whichever way you look at it it can result in better volume growth or stronger margins or combination of both as in when we go along and I think that is something that will be more structural in nature over the next 3 to four years quickly paid Devil's Advocate and I know you like Gujarat gas and the street is also enjoying this as we see it this morning it's up 133% but the fact is this is a very expensive stock or has been uh the earnings were a disappointment they downgraded the Outlook in terms of volume growth more the dependence on Mori also makes it extremely earning sensitive to what comes out of there in terms of PNG uh volumes which were expected to decline in September do you feel this is just a Sentimental impact and operationally the gain on margins because of uh you know cost optimization as interc company cost will come off will offset the operational concerns that we have with Kat gas or had until two days ago okay so as far as the September quarter is concerned you're absolutely right that the earnings will be basically weak and to be fair we've had a sell rating on the company for a while now primarily because of the concerns that you raised that the volumes from Mor still have an outsized proportion in the overall business of the company and those are inherently volatile because they are competing against propane prices which have also been up and down and therefore that makes earnings predictability very very difficult those points not withstanding the one key change which is why I mentioned that the one key change that's happening in terms of the control over your sourcing and control over your sourcing costs that straight away adds a lot more leeway in terms of you know your pricing power in the sense that propane volatility can actually be more effectively addressed because you've got much more room to play with as far as your sales prices are concerned because you've got more control and moderation in gas costs than than was possible even before this deal that is number one if you if you really do the math there was about 5 MMS CMD that Gujarat gas purchases from gspc on which if you take out the two or two two and a half to three rupees that was being made as margins that straight away adds an effective two Rupees to your gas cost that you can play with which is basically which takes care you know in in in some ways of around $ 20 to $30 a ton of variation as far as propane prices is concerned so that is I think a significant change that happens the second thing is that it it effectively provides an hedge trading business has been surprisingly stable and on an increasing Trend both for Gail and if you look at the margin trends for gspc as well the kind of pricing that we expect for LNG and spot LNG prices going forward suggests that you know trading business will continue to do well and that anyways therefore effectively acts as a hedge in terms of overall Evita potential for the next two to three years and as I said the tax benefit that is there it's a real tangible cash benefit that you're getting because you're avoiding having to pay tax as for the merger rules you're allowed to basically offset this uh for the next 7 to 8 years and I think that's a very very powerful tool as far as earnings strength is concerned over the next 3 to four years just one question prel and of course uh the uh merger Etc streamlines the whole situation for Gujarat C seen as a positive but moving forward after the merger news do you see regulatory issues as perhaps one challenge for the space and of course Gujarat gas especially what happens or what keeps happening with City Gas Distribution businesses is that a possible sort of cloud on the horizon I think the regulatory challenges are going to be faced by the transmission entity there is no doubt even with the carve out that should happen the concerns that are there around GSL will continue to be real and valid so you know while the management is very confident that they will get additional kex authorizations and they could get a favorable review of the Tariff that was basically cut by close to 45% in the last review order the fact is that the new entity as and when it emerges we'll be facing the same challenges that the Tariff is obviously much lower than what they were earning before the last tariff order came through as far as the cgd business is concerned I believe the major risk is that if priority gas allocation actually continues to decline at the rate at which it is declining I think that presents a real and present danger as far as margins is concerned because if you have to keep replacing 6 and5 $7 in mbtu gas with even $9 $10 uh mmbt that is something you have to either pass through if you have to keep your volume growth going or you have to take a hit on your margins both can't happen at the same time so I think that is the main risk I don't see any huge regulatory risk in terms of competition coming in or Open Access and so on because frankly the availability of gas itself is so restricted specifically for the priority segment that the the potential of a third party coming in and grabbing business from an incoming player and getting gas on the same terms I think is very very difficult and at least it's very improbable let me put it this way at this point of time proel we obviously short of time but I quickly want to get you a view from you on what's Happening to marketing margins you know crude has been up and down $80 76 settling now lower because there is a downside bias uh will this have a structural impact on the earnings of om's and also OMC now this one reported earnings that mistre expectations stock actually went up uh and it's had a very sort of volatile move that happened a few upgrades as well which I'm mindful of in the last few weeks but I also know that you've been constructive on OMC for over a year so quick word with the structural impact on omcs on back of crude and what's your call on omgc in oil India while we at it how much time do I have uh you have two and a half minutes okay um OMC and oil India it's a very simple uh you know binary equation uh net realizations as I have said earlier as well are fixed at somewhere between $74 to $76 and Barrel so until if crude actually goes even below the current levels that we are seeing that is when a little bit of concern emerges because uh you know even if infall taxes are removed your net realizations will fall below what you have been making at least over the last year or so I do believe that the correction in Brent and and WTI seems to be a bit excessive and if you look at the inventory levels there could be a little bit more correction upwards I still believe that $80 to $82 is a more reasonable range for bread therefore net realizations for omgc and oil can continue to be at the levels of $74 to $76 which as I you know which is definitely higher than the last decade average uh you know and and should continue to support earnings the other more important equation is that if you look at their production plans you know specifically for oil India the kind of performance they have put uh together in the last six to seven quarters their production growth has been much higher than their long-term averages and the guid that they've given for the targets of oil and gas imply that they could continue to deliver 7 to 10% production growth on an overall basis over the next three years as long as they can deliver on that I don't see a threat to valuations or to earnings because that is that is pretty much above what they've delivered in the last decade or so with OMC also it's more of a single asset story The kg Basin asset has to continue to deliver uh you know the guidance that has been given there has been a little bit of delays here and there and and frankly that's been the story for this asset for omgc but F but given that the asset is producing gas they've added a couple of wells in the last quarter as well and they are still on track to reach about 8 to 10 mm CMD of gas and about 40 to 45,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of this year I think if they can achieve anywhere close to that the stock should continue to do well realizations as I just said the one bet I'm taking is crude doesn't collapse from here if that happens we'll be forced to revisit our earnings assumptions for sure so that's the one looming thread and and and and that's something that we can't really help uh I think you also asked about marketing margins see I think it's it's basically a story of what the integrated margins look like for the omcs uh refining margins have definitely uh come off again in the last seven days they had been recovering quite sharply from the low level seen in the first quarter they had come back to about five5 half dollars from the levels of three and a half I'm talking about Singapore margins so uh you know the decline again back to $3 levels is a bit of a concern but at the same time marketing margins would average about 3 to four rupees a liter on a blended basis for 1 Q are trending at well over 7 seven and a half rupees right now so it really is a game of integrated margins being the same levels then OMC should continue to be okay all right thank you so much P always a pleasure to speak with you uh and uh you know that's actually the big story this morning just pull up Gujarat gas and gspl has recovered sharply uh from uh where it opened at least and that's what pre show pairing off but still about 2 and a half% up Gujarat gas is the cracker this morning about 11% up all right that's one big story the other big story of course is Autos now uh whole host of auto sales numbers have also come in this morning in the last half hour or so before we get to a conversation with Mahindra and Mahindra on how their numbers are let me go across to Punit who now has a more consolidated view of what August has been like for the auto sector in terms of sales yes Punit well thanks for that so just want to talk about four-wheelers as well as two wheelers now for four-wheeler specifically a very Divergent Trend Mahindra and mahra are going 16% on a year-on-year basis versus maruti as well as TARTA Motors whove Fallen 3% in sales for the month of August so very Divergent very interesting trend maruti has said that you know they've corrected some inventory in this particular month so inventory data has fallen by 1 day to 36 Days still above the month that they keep but this is the new normal so has to say and what's interesting is Mahindra and Mahindra while you know we saw the tar launch in this particular number there's no numbers that they've given out yet for this particular launch but they have mentioned that you know it's gotten a very strong response what's other thing to key note is what's happening in the two-wheeler space as well uh one of the key biggest winners in this particular category has been you know Bajaj Auto growing by roughly 16% that's double over what the analysts had estimated of around 8 to 9% growth the second key winner year is of course TVs M 9% growth seen in this particular time in August compared to the same time last year and the third one is hero motoc cop which is grown by roughly around 5% Aisha Motors has fallen by 5% but I also want to address Ola electric now they you know registrations according to data on vahan is roughly around 27,000 for this particular month now this is lower than 41,000 reported in July so on a year on-ear basis yes they've grown very substantially but that's also because of capacity addition but this fall on a year on month- on-month basis is slightly concerning we addressed that you know a couple of weeks ago that Jeff had put out a note where the market share has fallen from 46% in June to 33% now so that's one of the key concerns to look out for the stock might re but the two or three key winners is of course baj TVs as well as Mahindra and Mahindra for this particular month back to you thanks pun and in fact emm is the conversation that we are going to continue because it certainly seems to be in a bit of a fast l in is Mahindra and Mahindra especially the PV sales now we caught up with with Vijay nakra he's the president of Automotive division at Mahindra and Mahindra to understand what aided these sales and the road ahead for the company listening to conversation I had with him we are very pleased with our performance for the month of August uh you know we've been we've been talking to the media and even to our analysts and investors that uh our objective is to deliver um Mid te double digit growth and we've been able to do that in the month of August with the 16% growth in the SUV business um with a wholesale number of 43,000 uh I think what's augured and worked well for us has been um you know as you were kind of mentioning which is uh a buildup to the pref festive season I think I would also want to mention that this is not just building up of stock at the dealers that the 16% growth has been back by strong retails and if you look at the wahan data for the month um if I include Telangana which is still not on wahan and contributes for about four to 5% of numbers uh we are at 98% uh of registration in comparison to the wholesale and we've also gained 2% share when it comes to retail data on Wan so it has been a strong performance both on billing and ret for us Mr nakra which means you are saying that the possibility of a strong September on the back of what you've just said is a is is is very distinct you might actually follow up a strong August with a strong September well look it's uh the the indications of the signs are that the festive season should be should be good I think U as as as all of us have seen that you know while the PV industry has been largely flat the SUV IND industry has been growing and if you look at YTD July we still have to wait for August numbers to come out of the industry uh the industry has uh had a 15% growth against uh more or less flat flattish passenger vehicle numbers and SUVs which used to account at one point in time 40% then became 50% in f24 it became close to 59.8% uh if you look at YTD July we now are at 65% so SUVs continue to be uh you know sort of the flavor of the year and um uh you know just the if I if I was to dial back a little bit into the last couple of months I think we had elections we had the budget we had a strong summer because of which walk-ins were low but as we start moving into the festive season with a very strong Monsoon and uh you know the data of monsoon clearly indicates that if you look at the the long term average we are at 7% plus if we look at um you know 90% of the land for kif crop has been sewn um the the data for uh you know the the the uh the food produce reaching the mundies is at 11% higher than last year strong crop prices so we believe that this augur well for a strong upcoming festive season so so we seeing a fairly strong uh rural performance for two ERS in particular um starting to see this trend play out in four-wheelers whenever it does four-wheelers also benefit are you seeing that rural play out better in &m SUV sales already or do you expect that to improve well you know um I think we need to look at it with two lenses uh so firstly yes has has has rural done well it has I think not only for us for everyone it still accounts for their about so 50% of of the total volume but um you know in our case given that we had a 3xo launch uh a lot of the numbers um you know has been supported in urban and sort of I would say semi-urban markets for the numbers of 3xo so for us it's been a fair mix of both urban and rural um rural had its share of challenges for the reasons that I mentioned above we all know that a very large part of rural sales is linked to Agri and two wheelers which is linked to Monsoon so we like I said I think we'll see um we should see a good pickup in rural sales as we get into the festive season okay so inventory LW assar that September might be a good month You're Expecting rural to do well I'm guessing you are you you should be a pleased man let me try and talk about uh discounts I was going to ask you about both inventory and discounts inventory you already cleared my doubt discounts are you offering discounts or are sales pre-sales inquiries strong enough for you to bank upon good sales without discounts um so you know I think two things to that one uh if I let me first answer your question on inquiries and if I look at my inquiry data going up into the festive season it's significantly up if compar it to the average of the last 3 months so we are seeing a strong buildup of inquiries as we know getting into the festive season discounts are not way out of proportion they are very much in line with what one would typically do as you get into the season uh so you know it's not disproportionate discounts that is driving retail and sales for the business got it which is okay uh bookings inquiries for couple of things the new launch 3xo and the tar rocks which is kind of everybody's question could you talk about that for a bit um you know in the last media and analyst meet we said that we would not really we would stop putting out uh num ex numb but give me some color I'll give you a color exactly I was coming to that to give you a color let me talk about 3xo uh very strong inquiry and booking pipeline uh we are working with very hard uh to be able to deliver on the expectations we are at full utilization of our capacity there uh when it comes to thar rocks very very encouraging response we've not yet opened bookings uh but if I just was to look at the data of uh the the sort of excitement around the brand you know for all the content that we've put out in the digital space social media space we've had over a billion video views of the content we've put out we've had close to 4 million website visits lots of walk-ins at the dealerships waiting for our test drive vehicles to reach there and for the bookings to open so we are very confident that with a great product that we've launched with uh the kind of pricing we've we've done for the product we believe it will be uh it will be one of our successful Blockbuster launches yeah well I I see one of your ads on my channel too and it's it's an interesting ad so yeah no surprise there I have one final question Mr Mr nakra which is um uh based on and sorry for not having these numbers handy but I would love for you to tell this to me um based on the Bas Year's numbers that were there and because the festive season gets altered you know month- on month Etc but for the rest of the year with all of that that's happening plus the bay effect do you expect the PV sales to look strong through the rest of the calendar well look you know at the start of the year itself if you looked at the data that s had put out uh we were talking about a 4 to 6% in the PV space and the SUVs was uh you know the kind of growth was being talked about was between 11 to 133% so if I look at the performance YTD I think PVS is slow and uh I'm not going to give a guidance or a direction of what that percentage will be but we know that it's in low single digit and I think it will continue to be there the reason also being the launches the flavor is SUVs as I said it's now at 65% of the py industry there we've seen 15% growth in Industry so my guess is it probably will be in line with what s has been has put out for the SUV numbers that's Eminem but you know the stock isn't quite doing as well I think the Tractor Sales hurting Mahindra and mahindra's performance today at the low point of the day despite PV sales is looking okay because the tractor numbers didn't look good so that's to be kept in mind um the stock isn't exactly doing very well what what is um doing well though let's just get the plate of the BC 500 winners and losers because the nifty50 is okay we spoke about this in the morning that PCR is high Etc but there's no need to take the foot off the pedal for now looking okay look at that Gujarat gas up aart 8% AES Logistics doing very well for itself up about 7% so that stock is not doing too badly uh there is strength in God Agro Gage industry so the godage group seems to be uh doing okay for itself and uh JM Financial is up about 4% so that's the other one to monitor what's not doing well Dixon Lloyd's metal Arc chemicals Suson um APL Apollo and a few others which are sulking PTM is sulking by the way 2 and a half% as well that's the Chinese ownership overhang gone away or likely to go away soon that's still um looking a bit in trade so those are a few names m oswal is a stock and Nama is a stock both have done well so the wealth managers seem to be doing okay not 361 though but let's pull up individually motilal and Nama and 361 so motilal okay noama okay 361 maybe not so the wind energy companies though it's not just suon by the way Inox wind and Inox wind energy too are are relatively soft today so that space after having had a really good run and valuations looking egregious is now just starting to look a bit somber so bear that in mind meanwhile Ashok Len numbers before we wrap up the show Ash L numbers the flashes on your screen domestic sales down 8% at 13347 I'll quickly tell you though what the expectations were because CV numbers were not expected to be great mind you so that's to be kept in mind but this 8% down ticket 13347 um seems a bit underwhelming for Ashok Leen the expectations were about a 3% Yi downt that they have come in with an 8% Yi downt is not looking all that great so no surprise that that asuk cland also is looking weak it's a auto day I think during the course of the day my colleague Punit will keep us updated with all that's happened in Autos but for now uh from the team that put India market open together thanks so much for tuning in up next is talking point my guest today is AB Agarwal of Piper Cera [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music]