Joe Goodberry: What To Expect From 2024 Cincinnati Bengals

[Music] welcome back Mr goodberry the first star Logistics studio is fully equipped and ready to record [Music] week one is here Jamar Chase is still holding out as of Monday when I record this uh the Bengals have announced some starters at two key position battles throughout the year some new guys are practicing and the biggest news of the week is McKinley Jackson changed his number from 68 to 93 and maybe potentially saving the trajectory of his career as 93 is a much better number that number vacated by Jeffrey Gunter with his retirement uh so that's good for mckenley Jackson who's on IR so we won't see him for four games but that number 93 will look much better for the Bengals in other news the right tackle and cornerback two job have been awarded to Trent Brown the veteran the Bengals signed who I think we expected him to be the starting right tackle but when amarius Mims played so well or appeared to play so well it's it's hard to tell right we really had one drive and a couple plays in preseason for Mims but all reports out of camper that he was performing as expected as a first round pick with all the potential in the world while Trent Brown was inactive and not ready to participate until um pretty much the end of camp and then beginning of pre season and ultimately he is the veteran and he gets the nod as amarius Mims is able to practice again on late Duty or at least he's in uniform when the team went to go blocking and do the physical portion of practice he wasn't involved in that so he's still working his way back I expect he'll be ready uh in short order but as of week one Trent Brown is your starter at right tackle and at cornerback number two DJ Turner versus Dax Hill converted safety versus maybe Josh Newton got in there a little bit there were some people that asked that question and talked about that Dax Hill has been named the starter at cornerback so how about that think about the turnaround there think about the recent first round picks that aren't starting for the Bengals over the last four years it's really just Dax Hill and it's from free safety last season to outside boundary Corner not nickel Corner not slot corner like he played at Michigan boundary corner be interesting to watch him all season long Zack Taylor did say that DJ Turner will play and I've broken that down and talked about that too it looks like Turner does have a role not just as a backup and not just on special teams but as a potential slot third and five plus situation there's been a lot of plays and a lot of packages in Camp uh and in preseason we see Mike Hilton is removed from the defense and DJ Turner is inserted which gives you Cam Taylor Brit Dax Hill DJ Turner and I think they're all going to play I think you're four deep there five deep with the way Josh Newton played and you're really good at corner and then Jaylen Davis is on the practice Squad who can be called up at any point it's really good cornerback room so good good on Dax Hill to win that job and be one of the um few first round picks that are starting for the Bengals recently and I think they're going to need that for this defense to I think they should rebound from where they were last year I think what they end up 31st in uh yards and 32nd in explosive plays they should rebound on in both of those numbers just in the communication on the back half but I also think they're a little bit better at Corner a little deep rad corner and these young guys the DJ Turners the Dax Hills uh the Jordan battles the mckenley Jackson and Chris Jenkins and Joseph oai miles Murphy when he returns McKinley Jackson when he returns a lot of young players cam Taylor Brit right I think there's still another step in his game and if he gets it and if he hits it it's going to go a long way to making this defense rebound and get to where they need to be Bengals Ann also announced their captains on Monday on offense Joe burrow Orlando Brown and Ted Carris those are your most veteran players that have been with the team now I mean Carris is you know going in year three but burrow quarterback usually gets that Ted Carris has been in the league a long time one of the oldest players on the roster he and Trent brown but it's Orlando Brown getting it at left tackle soon as he got here he's been a uh a face and a spokesman for the team I think Ted Carris would be considered the same way players vote on this I think players and coaches vote on this on the defensive side it's Von Bell at safety Germaine Pratt at linebacker and Sam hubard at left defensive end hub's been a captain for a long time Von Bell missing a year and coming back into captaincy good to see that and pretty much sets the tone and and and answers why he was brought back not that we have any questions why but you know and he's a captain right away um got speaks volumes and on special teams Evan mcferson the uh ex newly extended kicker I don't know if we even talked about that we may have just had a brief moment of saying yeah mcferson is extended and we kept moving because it's not very an expensive extension when it happens but yeah he'll be here for a long time and he's a captain the other one is a Keem Davis gther who got his uh one-year extension with the Bengals this off season and is a good special teams player they lost Marcus Bailey remember he was I thought one of their best special teams players the last couple years and I believe he went to Arizona I don't know if he made the team though if you know let me know put it in the comments cuz I will forget to check that out I don't I don't think we play the Cardinals at all this year um so I you know I probably won't look at that roster see that although I do know they play the bills week one so maybe I will end up catching some of that game see how Jonah Williams does it right tackle compared to Trent brown but big news still is the Jamar Chase hold out hold in is continuing although reports rumors insiders have said progress has been made and it feels like it's going to get done if you had to ask me and somebody did on Twitter recently what percentage what I put it at feeling like it's getting done and that he's going to be out there week one I said 85% um 85% is that it's done and he's out there I feel like it's like 75% that it gets done so very close between the two I think the deal gets done at this point but we have to be aware that hey the season we' only got a few practices left we're missing our first one already on Monday and he's got to get in shape Taylor keeps saying he's in shape he works out he's doing everything he needs to do on the side but it's different you got to run routes you got to be out there you got to do your thing with Joe burrow even though your chemistry and burrow and Chase's chemistry has been great forever and so that should rekindle pretty quickly but at this point um sounds like the Bengals are going to make him highest paid receiver in the league and they're just going to get it done which is how I feel and hope it goes anyway for the rest of the show though I have worked I put a few hours into this and I do this every year I when I say a few hours it's definitely more than three the the the few variety of nearing on 20 hours of research probably and compiling and triple cheing my numbers I've got projections for the season I want to go over their schedule and I want to go over individual players so it's not just win loss projection that'll be the quick part of this next segment uh but it's the how many yards I think burrow is going to throw for how many touchdowns how many times he'll be sacked how many catches for Jamar Chase and T Higgins and Germaine Burton and Mike aeki and who's going to lead the running back room in in touches and yards and total yards and touchdowns and sacks and interceptions on defensive side I've done all that and bounced it around and looked at numbers for entire careers of these players projections um built on historical data and what I think they'll do and in the role I think they'll play I went over what I thought the depth chart would look like last week if you didn't see that go back and watch that and that's going to influence how much I think these guys are going to play and why I split the snaps and the production the way I did so let's dive into that I think that's the most fun here's my preview here's how I think the season's going to go we've got the graphic here that the Bengals put up and we're going to go through that and now that we know who's starting which weeks more than likely right we know jacobe brassette starting for the Patriots week one and now that I think about it I did not say this is Bengals on the brain episode 115 presented by first star Logistics let's dive into the season and see what we got is this is everyone with me is this an easy win oh I never like to say an easy win the Bengals are favored more than any other team any other week one matchup when's the last time that happened open in Orange I really like the odds that the Bengals come out on top with or without Jamar Chase although they haven't started very hot in previous years under Zack Taylor we'll see how much of that was previous Joe burrow injuries and not being able to have a full strong training camp they played a little bit in preseason can we use that excuse I don't know well hey let's be realistic and let's say they start off one and one and I know we all dislike that I think we'll get our revenge on the Chiefs later as we start the season three and one and now I think the slow start thing can be put the rest it's not so bad we're not worried about it you start off three and one all is good I'm gonna have them losing to Baltimore though because everything's not perfect to start the year before they run off a few wins in a row Baltimore and then Sunday Night Football Giants week six yes that's week six week seven handle the Browns how about that it's not all bad week nine back at home 425 game the Bengals are rolling at this point I think the games I typically give them um losses to and you guys have seen this before I basically when I look at this is how does the defense make the other team's quarterback play and how does their defense make your quarterback play I think it's hard to stop Mahomes I think it's hard to stop Lamar Jackson so I I I see those as being coin flip type games these other ones I think they have the advantage although the Eagles are stacked and Jaylen Herz can have a game so anything can happen there the Bengals are on a roll now and I'm going to say they have a little slip up here with the Chargers one of the few games where yeah they probably should probably could win those uh but I think the Chargers actually will be okay they'll play tough defense Harbaugh will have that run game going Harbaugh and Roman will have that run game going and L ly at this point you get to the bye and you have now only lost three games you're 1 2 3 4 five 6 7even eight would you go eight and three would you take eight and three to start the season I would how about nine and three that's where we're at right here I'm going Dallas Cowboys loss despite I think that could be a coin flip game but whenever you're away against a good team anything can happen there I've got the Bengals splitting with with the Browns can we see that is that clear enough there we go L there so I got him splitting with the Browns got him beating Denver and I've got him sweeping the Steelers splitting with the Browns splitting with the Ravens sweeping the Pittsburgh Steelers 12 wins five losses splitting with the Browns Ravens then you got Chiefs and cowboys slipping in there 12 and five I think is battling for that first seed the teams you have to worry about can the can the Chiefs falter and go 11 wins because that week two game could be huge in terms of uh that number one seed we want that number one seed right let's get that W there then you go 13 wins that's how you that's how you get that number one seed could come down to that game could come down to a game later where you just beat the Browns here or beat the the Cowboys there but I think I'll take 12 wins anytime you're not going to win every game you're supposed to you're not going to lose every game you're supposed to some games are coin flips and I think the Bengals will be in good shape how do they get there how do they get 12 wi wins let's check out the stats right here starting at the top of this screen here trying not to look too far down we'll get to it maybe I'll put my picture right in front of it there we go um starting with the top at quarterback passing first Joe burrow with 66 attempts remember he was on Pace to drop back more than any other quarter quarterback in the league last year pretty much two years in a row because remember in 2022 they only played 16 games but on a per game basis Joe burrow throws more than anyone will that continue with the rist with trying to keep him healthy with making sure uh you have a more efficient running game and and more of a u running game in an offense built around burrow that can protect him just a bit I think the numbers come down slightly but still over 600 attempts 606 total and that's with Jake Browning throwing 40 maybe that's with burrow missing a game maybe that's with Browning uh finishing off some blowouts or playing the final week in the season because the Bengals have the first seed wrapped up either way we've got Browning in there I've got burrow with a 69.8% completion for the season that would be huge for him that would be not only is he accurate but he's thrown at 7.4 7.4 yards per attempt sorry for the fumble there myself 4,480 four yards 35 touchdowns through the air 12 interceptions this culminates in a oh let's clear that that's from previous 102.1 passer rating should be near or close to or in the top five uh in the league so great season for Joe burrow this is verging on an MVP type season depending on how the other players do now how do we divid that up so we got 37 total touchdowns through the air 47 total yards 4700 total yards 449 completions and 646 total attempts so let's slide this down just slightly I want to see the total there still okay and if you can see the total down here move that move my picture to the side and you can see the total instead of 646 attempts we have 635 why because we've got some spikes throwaways typically you're in the 15 to 20 range on that I've only got 11 so I'm a little bit low you could probably take a few targets away from these guys I got Jamar Chase leading it despite the uncertainty for week one even though I'm confident or feeling good I'm hopeful that Jamar Chase is out there and we have a contract extension I still have him close to last year's numbers 102 catches just over last year's 100 1263 yards 11 touchdowns and I put drops in there too because drops are normal and they we shouldn't uh freak out over for them too much T Higgins with 106 targets 73 catches for 10,040 yards seven touchdowns seen some people uh calculate a little bit more for Higgins but I've got him a little bit lower because he tends to miss time every season and I try to factor that in these aren't just straight uh 17 game projections I project that guys probably are going to miss time because they do right if you average missing three games a year Well I'm going to assume you're going to miss three more games this year not to try predict injuries I don't do that I'm just saying based on Career averages a year like this from tagin would make a lot of sense for him Andre ysios third most targets of anybody on the team I'm gonna highlight him so you guys know what we're talking about 31 catches 3117 yards just over 10 yards per catch three touchdowns four drops I have him getting the most targets and most play from that inside spot but I also think he's going to move around and play outside as well versatile piece but you'll see why I have him a little bit lower I think Germaine Burton who I have next and I have him next is based on yards over here if you want to see but Burton I have Trent IR getting more targets than Burton but I've got Burton getting 37 total targets catching 22 balls this year just more than one per game 298 yards which is a good clip over 14 yards per catch three touchdowns which is great on 22 catches and just one drop he's got great hands Trenton nwin 42 targets more targets than Burton uh 28 grabs more grabs than than Burton as well 287 yards which about 10 yards per catch for him two touchdown two drops Charlie Jones getting in action as a guy we know is gon to be active every week because he's a Return Man 28 targets 18 catches 184 yards just over 10 yards per catch one touchdown one drop but I think I would take this right we got a combination of these three basically replacing Tyler Boyd and it's just in the 900 yard range and 8 touchdowns I think we would all take that uh you know I I definitely would if we said Tyler Boyd put up 81 catches for 900 yards and eight touchdowns I think we'd all be like okay great let's roll and I I think that the trio here is is doing that uh very well with with Charlie Jones bringing up the last spot but how's that mix with tight end and running back Mike aeki 67 targets leading the way I think he's gonna be a huge part of who that slot receiver is and that how you fill that Tyler Boyd role uh for the Bengals 47 grabs 463 yards and five scores that's a good Red Zone Target I don't think it's anything like Tyler eer someone said can eer I think it was Bengals Captain put it up on Twitter could he could gaseki hit those catches and those yards and those touchdowns and I don't think he will but if he does because these are all safe projections right I'm not gonna I could go crazy and say Burl throws for 5200 yards and wins MVP but you know I don't feel like the need that I have to go out on a limb here I think it's within the realm of possibility I'm trying to hit in the middle here Mike aeki if he gets 15 touchdowns like like Tyler rord if he has 780 yards if he catches 60 balls um Joe bur's probably MVP he probably threw for 5,000 yards and these guys are all having career numbers because of it next guy up for targets is Tanner Hudson with 20 catching 16 for 145 and a touchdown but Drew sample is going to play the next most at tight end not much of a receiver we know this but he will catch a high rate for a low number of yardage being kind of a third down back at times and being a check down option he's not a guy who's going to stretch down field with uh so low numbers for him although as the whole group I do like what I've got here for the whole unit at tight end and and catching a lot of passes and doing a lot of uh doing a lot of work that maybe has been missing matching numbers from last year and the previous year Eric all though the prized rookie I don't have Tanner mclin in here that was the one guy I didn't know even you know how often is the all five guys going to be active maybe I could have cut Tanner Hudson's in half or Eric alls in half I started doing this before mclin for sure made the roster I'm not sure he's active and until then I didn't have him in this grouping it probably takeen injury so the numbers would come from one of these guys anyways well for Eric all 11 catches 92 yards um no touchdown one drop because I don't expect I expect him to play a big role but that will that lead to catches I think most of his job will be blocking and providing some contrast to Drew sample you I think the the trio the 12 Personnel in the running packages are going to be sample in all and in that maybe he'll get a few deep shots off some play action or something like that but largely um he's in there for blocking in my opinion for as a rookie year very common I I posted the stats also Bengals rookie tight ends I think there's only been nine in their history to ever catch more than 10 balls in a season it doesn't happen very often so for him to get 11 it's a solid rookie I see it in between like a a Ryan hwit and a Tyler crof type rookie impact which I think we'd all take that for a fifth round up pick Zack Moss he is under Chase Brown here but I went by running back one versus rb2 I didn't go by yards in this I probably should have sorted it probably could have dragged Chase Brown up there Zack Moss 41 targets 33 catches that would be a good year for him receiving he's never had a lot of receiving production 223 yards here uh versus Chase Brown who I think is just going to catch more balls have more screens called for him a 45 for 322 is a solid average with two touchdowns I think we'll take that from Chase Brown on 52 targets I've got them really going to the running backs more that's over a 100 targets right there just to running backs uh I do see more little bit more uptick at tight end because gaseki is gonna play the slot and the a little bit more uptick at running back because now they can pass protect and and they're a little bit more Dynamic with the ball in their hands so in all the numbers are going to match up if you're wondering you got to if you ever do this The Yards got to match up to the yards of quarterback throwing to the touchdowns got to match up to the touchdowns the catches Got to match up to the completions it's not magic it's just math all right down to the running game want to make sure I get this in the middle here there we go there we are Zach Moss 156 carries Chase Brown 139 I project a 50/50 split or close to it uh but I've got very close in the yardage as well but Chase Brown's going to have a higher yards per attempt little bit more touchdowns for Zach Moss six to four and only one fumble for Moss two for tra two for Chase brown cherry Von Williams just barely getting in here with a 3.7 average 18 carries maybe one a game for 67 yards he'll play a little bit maybe if someone goes down and he has to uh take a secondary role in one of these games that's how I see it for now that's a solid running game I think we take our 1300 yards uh total of 1500 yards when you factor in the quarterbacks and everything which is about where the Bengals typically end up 12 touchdowns total uh 10 fumbles total because you know Joe burrow quarterbacks usually are in the five range that could go higher let's see how the risk does right let's see if that's a factor in fumbling we haven't seen him really get hit five is average though that's what he would normally be in I think he only had two fumbles last year for most of the year but he also um didn't get hit very much early until he couldn't move 32 sacks by the way 34 total for the offense for a team that going to throw the ball this would be how many drop backs that would be 34 plus the 6 plus the 646 so we're looking at nearly 700 dropbacks total in 32 sacks I think we would take that overall couple carries for Jamar Chase and Charlie Jones on to the defense and again leave the comments in there tell me where I'm wrong tell me where like oh no chase Brown's going for a thousand yards this year I think total here I've got chased for 640 basically and 320 um I mean I think we would take 960 yards right 960 yards and six touchdowns that's a breakout year for Chase Brown in my opinion people have known I've been high on them so what do I think is a breakout I think it's something like that total yardage here okay first let's start with the defensive end group and leading I've got snaps in here because it's a good way to balance it I looked at what they have in previous years it's normally around 12,000 snaps they usually get about 750 is tackles 7 40 to 750 uh 300 pressures total 40 to 55 sacks and 10 to 25 interceptions would be normal for a defense so that those are the totals that I came up with that that's a way for me to double check and on what we're doing here and defensive end snaps they normally end up in like 22 to 2,300 range so I had to count up and split it up between these guys because miles Murphy's hurt he's only ending up with 315 this I originally had him at like 440 uh or maybe was 450 getting close to that 500 range and I was a little bit lower on hubard and Hendrickson thought it'd be more of a rotation and then Murphy goes down it's like okay Cam sample goes down it's like all right these top two guys are in line for big usage again I've got 14 and a half saxs for Trey Hendrickson on 62 pressures six sacks for Sam hubn on 38 pressures miles Murphy gets back gets back in the swing of things four sacks which I think is fine for a guy who's still backing up hubard uh probably a better pass rusher in hubard so maybe that's split will change maybe it's a breakout year for Murphy and I'm way under here and most of these sacks that hubard gets maybe he's down to three we can add three to Murphy's number and he ends up with seven which I think we'd all take but I think the guy that's again I'm buying the breakout I'm buying Joseph Joseph osai one of the youngest players still on the team in year four uh and continued to look good and camping preseason and now they have to lean on him and they have to play him and actually have to play him at defensive end I think we're on the verge of a breakout year and I I've said this before so I hate to even say it again but I I think that's what we're looking at for Joseph oai if he's going to be tied for third and sax if you're already looking down too far BJ Hill and Sheldon rankins I didn't mean for all three of them then up with 5.5 but there we are uh mop up and and sparing sparingly play for KJ Henry while he gonna play early probably Cedric Johnson you know just maybe gets a sack some point this year BJ Hill leading the way in snaps Sheldon rankings typically hasn't played as many snaps as BJ H has so I got him at 625 rankins has dealt with injuries much more often than Hill has in his career but he's the better pass rusher accumulating more sacks and less snaps or uh more pressures and less snaps same amount of sacks and 100 less snaps so I still have Zack Carter as a SE third most used defensive tackle but I hope that starts to shift towards Chris Jenkins as the season goes j2f getting early nose tackle snaps and then leading into M mckenley Jackson the two ends in McKinley I think it is um but I have Chris Jenkins getting one and a half sacks on the year 16 tackles we'll see how it goes from there I do think this defensive tackle room is going to need somebody to step up whether Sheldon rankins has a career year BJ Hill has a career year um they're going to need that or one of these rookies or maybe Zach Carter finally takes a step I'm not holding my breath on that one at linebacker mostly usage for the top two guys again I didn't put the John meta and botches in there because if they play these guys went down right and I'm not project projecting or predicting injuries for the top two linebackers there'll be a three linebacker package they will play Keem Davis G will play some 82 tackles 67 tackles 31 and this is just solo tackle so if you want to do combined tackles it gets even crazier and the number can get it's an unofficial stat so it can get really overinflated um one sack two sacks half a sack three interceptions for Logan Wilson I did have an interception for Trey Hendrickson too dropping back and fire zone he's going to get one this year three for Logan Wilson one for Germaine Pratt cam Taylor Britt leading the way at for snaps at corner as cornerback number one with four interceptions and then I have Mike Hilton having the second most snaps because I still think we're going to get a bit of a rotation here between Dax Hill DJ Turner even though Dax Hill won that job I've got him with the second most picks of The Corner Room with twoo also got him getting some pressures here Mike Hilton with seven pressures in a sack as well I think Dax was a good Blitzer last year I do have Josh Newton getting there getting in there a little bit typically the backup boundary guys do play a ton for the Bengals you could almost count the fourth Corner as a starter these days guys like Eli Apple they have to play and it might be a DJ Turner Josh Newton combo we'll see how that shakes out I don't want any injuries to happen but I think Jaylen Davis probably gets called up for a game or two as the season goes I still still think he's too good to be on the practice squad and worth a spot now down to safety goino Stone leading the wave Bell with 835 after that these are just snaps again uh four interceptions for goino stone two for Von Bell one for Jordan battle I'm not sure Anthony and Anderson get in much on the defensive side I got Dion with at least a little role in there maybe the Trey flowers type role they're most most of their contribution will be special teams especially Tyson Anderson um I got a sack here for van and Bell um let's say it's a blitz somewhere along the lines but I think that's what we're looking at I think it's a top six 16 de maybe a top 18 defense maybe they're ranked between 14 and 18 maybe they're middle of the pack type defense where I think the offense is going to regain some explosiveness regain some efficiency explosiveness a lot of it coming from the screens in the Run game and then uh yeah maybe that deep ball comes back chasing Higgins and this is like a safe bet if we seen, 1400 out of Chase and 1,200 out of Higgins I wouldn't be surprised but that would be less numbers for all these other guys or maybe burrow just MVPs it goes for 5200 yards and 40 touchdowns if he throws it and drops back as often as he did the last two years and stays healthy for this you could add 50 attempts to this uh chart and then you're adding maybe you can get up to 175 targets for Jamar Chase 120 catches and 1,400 yards that's how it happens I could see it and I would like to see it these are my projections for the season let me know where I'm off I'm sure people are going to have opinions on that and that's okay so that's our episode of Bengals on the brain presented by first star Logistics hopefully by the time you're watching this Jamar Chase has signed his deal and by the time the next episode comes we will have our kickoff to the NFL season 24 2024 season Ravens at Chiefs just root for football right I don't know good game maybe bad game would that be better no we don't need it 10 days Chiefs I didn't say that when I went over theu Chiefs get 10 days to prare for the Bengals they're usually not as good early in the season we struggle with the same thing they do if you look at it we'll see not looking ahead got the Patriots week one all orange we got one more episode for Friday coming up where I'm going to tell you how the Slate is going to change a little bit for Bengals on the brain and how often you see me on the first star media channel because we have a show to talk about it's going to take place on game day so if you're ready for your first reaction you'll want to be on first our YouTube media page and we've got you covered but I'm not going to spill the beans just yet till next time UD day Dave lapam here and every day I am grateful for my experience to have played professional football as a player I realize self- motivation leadership and appreciating your teammates are key at first star Logistics you can use those same attributes to create the life you want for you and your family build your future by working hard like I did you'll see results both on and off the field call first star Logistics today and be part of our winning team knocking