UEFA LEAGUE PREDICTIONS (Europa League and Conference league) Today - October 6 | Soccer predictions

hey guys in this video we have 32 games from European soccer today we have uh 16 games from Europa conference league and we have 16 games from Europa League and I will show all my winning percentages all my projected odds we will compare all projected Thoughts with bookmakers odds and we will try to find the value I will try to find one base bet from a conference link and I will also try to find one a good bet from Europa League I hope my numbers will help you to make better decisions today and of course if you want to learn how to use numbers for sports betting please visit underdogchans.com and if you will like this video please like it subscribe to the channel so you don't miss the next video and let's start foreign which is little bit more popular and bigger League because we have bigger teams uh for example Serena zweza they were trying to reach a Champions League so when they were eliminated they started playing in Europa League so we will start with this league uh if we check quickly record um since I started posting my soccer bets and betting small amounts of money on soccer because soccer is not my main sport I'm more focused on American Sports especially baseball NBA is coming but since then I'm 22 15 plus 4.2 percent plus 4.2 units yield plus 11.35 percent with close incline value numbers uh I I am on a two losing uh today losing streak but still uh lots of other wins and I hope we will continue with the profit each day I pick only one bit from soccer okay so among all the games I pick only one where I find little bit bigger value and in today's video I will give you one bet for a Europa League one bet for conference league and then you can go to my website underdogchans.com and you can check what is my best bet for today among all the leaks maybe it will not be from Europa conference League maybe it will not be from Europa League but maybe it will be some other leak okay but I will give you each day one my based on my numbers best bet okay but let's focus on Europa League in the first game seven assist against friends as I mentioned services that was trying to uh reach Champions League because parents is better team Hungary is also playing a good soccer lately uh we solve this in Nations cup but of course this is this has nothing to do with this game so let's focus on the numbers certain as well based on my projections will have 53.63 percent of chance to win this game uh so my fair odds should be 1.86 so if we check uh projected American also if you use American or those are my projected thoughts those are bookmakers as as you see value is always when I get better odds than I project oats right so I get more than I would expect for example if um if bookmakers odds are plus 100 and I project minus 130 then of course plus 100 is a recommended bit or if bookmakers offer 1.93 and I project that the fair odd should be 1.5 for example then this is a good good value bet okay uh in this game I would either go with Servane as Vesta or I would stay away okay these numbers these green numbers show where there is a value so either you stay away from the game or or play the game where you see the green okay but the bigger the number the bigger the value and I would not consider a series bit if we don't see at least 0.1 0.2 okay because the bigger the value uh the bad the better the BET okay so in this case either I stay away from this game or if you decide you can go with servants Vista because I think there is some value with Sirens at home maybe for for a tiny stake the second game Helsinki against ludogorets I was a little bit surprised with uh the numbers because so I didn't expect that ludogorres projected will have better chance than Helsinki but I honestly don't follow these leagues I don't follow these teams I simply use the numbers and algorithms too to to bet for myself and I'm never emotionally involved in these games so based on my projections Lulu goretz is a value so if you want to bet on this game I think Ludo goretz at uh 2.11 or plus 111 is a value bet okay so this is maybe for medium steak Berlin based on my projections Union is better team uh I I give them 63.95 percent of chance to win this game I think this is the best bet in Europa League after I was checking after I was checked uh I checked all all games so I would go with Union Berlin at 2.0 so I think this is the best bet from Europa League today okay but let's check the other games if you want to bet and my my numbers will hopefully help you Monaco trapism supports based on my projections 1.47 on Monaco bookmakers 1.52 as you see those odds are very similar uh I use uh value calculation uh with uh adjusted Criterion formula so you will see slightly bigger number with uh with smaller odds because this also have a little bit higher chance for positive result okay but uh there is small value with Monaco so either you stay away or you bet Monaco at 1.52 okay ammonia Manchester United as you see the odds are correct of course my odds are without weak or without margins bookmakers always include the margin this is their Commission because if you divide one by each number and you sum this number numbers you will get a little bit bigger number than one because that difference is the commission they will take and of course because of that my numbers will never be the same than bookmakers because I I use Fair odds and fair calculation but the formula will show me where there is a value or not and if we see negative number that means that all bookmakers odds are smaller than my projected so 14.28 is smaller than 18.1 right my projected also is 8.12 bookmaker 6.71 so there is no value in this so because of that negative number my project at 1.22 bookmakers 1.21 so I get uh less than I would expect so this is again negative number okay and I think there is no value in betting on this game uh Sheriff against Real sociedad based on my projections um should be a bigger favorite because of that there is a value it real associate that the only question is I don't know how motivated and how serious uh this team teams take these competitions so this is something you can take also into account for example if they will rest the whole team of course uh then you should take this into account okay those numbers are always based if teams play seriously and if they're motivated right and if they will play with the first team I don't know if they will play with the second team or with I don't know young team or something like that in that cases of course this is not going to work but uh I believe that these teams are still playing uh and they they have motivation for this league and based on my projections I also said that at 1.61 is a value stream against Lazio as you see my project it was 1.64 or minus 157 bookmakers minus 147 so this number is basically the same then this number this number is basically the same than this number because we use different odds and I think every Sports beta should know how to calculate and convert all so no matter if you use decimal American or fractional odds All Odds represent the same thing they are prices on the betting Market okay and you can if you sign up for a betting free betting course on my website uh I gave you the formulas at the end how you can convert this you also have one uh spreadsheet on my website where you can download these formulas how to convert these numbers but this is I think really really basic so I try to talk in decimal odds and I try to talk in American odds because I know some people are from Europe some people are from USA but this is really basic and very very simple to use you can use one Google spreadsheet put that formula in and then you can convert it okay but basically those are the prices uh I would stay away from this game or if you like you can go with lotsu but I think there is not much there is not a lot of value again this is one game where I was expecting that uh PS3 should be a little bit bigger uh not bigger but smaller favorite uh but still numbers don't don't lie and based on my projections there is some value with PSP so either you stay away from such a low odd or you take PSV at 1.54 I think they're a small value but I I wouldn't pay much attention then we have Arsenal against Borderland Arsenal they I think they are pretty good this season uh and based on my projections they should be at 1.17 bookmakers 1.24 so if I need to pick anything any team here I would go with Arsenal 2. 1.24 but of course I I will not take this bit uh of course there's always a chance that the other team will win right around if my projections are correct uh bodoglin will still win um 5 out of 100 games and based on bookmaker so they will win a couple of more uh games uh uh based on projections right so there is no sure games in in betting I sometimes I receive emails hey you lost time sometimes professional Bettors they don't win every single game okay if you bet on spreads they they win maybe 53 54 of times uh and if they can reach this they will make a lot of money in the long run okay nobody wins every single game because if you have the ability to win every single game then either you are a wizard or Nostradamus the this is not possible right we are not here to win every single game we are try we're trying to find the edge okay we're trying to find the opportunities on a betting Market okay so you every sport is better must first analyze games and you must come up with your prices you must come with your winning percentages because these percentages are then turned into the odds right uh and once once you get the auth then you this is your price that you're willing to pay okay so for example you want let's say we take PSP for example okay so you say okay my first odds on PS3 are 1.44 that means that if I risk 100 American dollars I wanted someone in this case a bookmaker will pay me at least 44 American dollars right right 100 multiplied by 1 1.44 is 4 44 American dollars of profit okay this is what you expect and this is something you need to know because if you don't know your price then you're just guessing and no wonder why so many people are broke from gambling and no wonder why so many people lose at sports betting because they don't do the home job this is your first step into profitable sports betting because if you don't have the ability to project this oath then you're just guessing and you will not win at sports betting yes of course you can do Arbitrage betting you can take the advantages of bonuses you can compare Pinnacle odds with soft bookmakers but this will come to an end because bookmakers will limit you soon if you will do Arbitrage betting and they open only say they will ban you so you can do this I don't know this is great for building a bankroll but you will make I don't know maybe 10 000 American dollars that's it then uh then the same with soft bookmakers uh comparing with Pinnacle but if you want to be a big player soon you will start betting with serious bookmakers with betting exchanges and then you need to have your own odds right of course you can also take a bookmakers bonuses at start and those things are great for building a bankroll right and you should do it but Sportsbook Sportsbook bonuses are also not uh all the time there right and bookmakers also know this because a lot of people are taking the advantage so at the end of the day if you have a long-term plan for sports betting you will need to come somehow with these numbers you need to know what are you paying so what price are you willing to pay today okay I maybe I will lose all the games all the games today maybe I will give you all the bad advice but this is the pet so this is something I do for last 20 years and this is how I end it here not because I was trying trying to hit the winner so this is the first concept when people ask me what is the first thing they need to learn the first thing you need to learn are the numbers you need to understand the numbers behind betting believe that Tick Tock Facebook Twitter and all this you need to understand the numbers okay if you don't understand the numbers you will not lose of course you can bet for fun of course you can bet recreationally which is great because sports betting Market needs people who bring the money because uh you you see bookmakers they're rich when you look at stadiums and when you look at football shirts you will see sponsors from bookmakers how do you think they get the money from you from people right who who make bold guesses who just throw out money and in sports betting only five percent of people or maybe three percent of people win at sports betting and this is a relative competition against others right so how do you think you will win at sports betting in the long run by watching videos by following other people's speaks well this is not going to work okay uh there needs to be some effort okay on a daily basis sports betting is a competition and it is a marathon okay and the first thing you need to understand are numbers and how the things works okay uh so let's go to the next game ice from against Bettis uh Betty's lost at home against Celta Vigo uh and they are going to to play Roma uh based on my projections Betis has only 30.40 percent of chance to win this game so uh the the biggest chance to win this game or the biggest chance uh has Roma in this game however based on my projections compared with bookmakers also there is no value with trauma and if I need to pick I would go with Bettis uh at plus 0.5 and you can get them uh you can get them I think around 2 or 2.10 or something like that okay I just I I was checking the odds but I I but I forget but there is some value with Betis plus 0.5 which means that they should not lose the game okay Union this is Belgium team based on my projections bragas or should be a little bit lower so if I need to pick I would go with Braga at 1.82 okay uh there is some value because I would expect that someone pays me 69 American dollars for uh betting on Braga but I see that bookmakers are offering me 82 instead of 69 American dollars and this is a value right so this is the main concept we need to understand because no matter what kind of business you run if you want to run a restaurant you need to buy Coca-Cola for one dollar and sell it for two dollars right and that the difference between these two numbers is your profit okay of course you will not win every single game but if you will make statistically positive uh bets okay then you can expect long-term profit if you bet on games with negative value you will start losing sooner or later and the whole business is based on that bookmakers don't win money because you lose uh uh because someone lost bet they simply make money because they bet against you with positive uh expected value so when there is 50 of chance you are betting at the odds at 1.91 while on the other side bookmakers are betting against you at 2.1 or plus 110 and every single bet from them is positive expected value because they offer you unfair odds what you need to do you need to come up with your own odds and go against the market okay you need to find this mispriced opportunities on the market and this is the way in the long run of course on 100 bets or even on 500 bits anyone can get yes and anyone can win and even even there will be all always some survivorships this is called survivorship bias you can Google it uh which will which will win because they don't even know how they won but there are always someone who will win based on God feeling but this is not the way for everyone and we we try to find the most optimal way how to win a sports betting okay uh the next game final box against iclar Naka no value again as you see negative numbers here I will stay away from this game Freiburg nand based on my projections as you see very similar numbers my numbers and bookmakers numbers are basically the same so uh either you go with Freiburg uh you can try them at home or if you get good odds I don't know 1.55 or something like that or you stay away uh Midland against feyenoord based on my projections uh there is some value with fan or so either you go with Fair North straight win or draft no bet okay as I mentioned in my previous videos um when you bet on soccer we have three ways we have home win away win and we have a draft okay and of course if you will bet on uh expected value if you will if you have a good model and if you can find these opportunities you will win in the long run however if you have short-term uh plan or if you need to win the next games uh I recommend that you reduce those three ways and I try to stay away from three ways bit so you either go with plus 0.5 which means that or One X or 2x which means that you exclude the drops so Betis bet is a winning bet if they win or if they finish uh with a draft okay so in both cases a bet is one and if you bet draft no bet this is another bad type where you for for example if we take feyenoord draw of no bet your bet is a winning bet if fan or the wins but if the game ends with a tie or the draft then your money is refunded okay so this way you exclude the third option okay uh Olympiacos karabakh based on my projections may be small value with karabakh but as you see I give them only 28.95 percent of chance to win this game so plus 0.5 or simply stay away from this game uh Ren dinamo Kiev based on my projections there is no value I think the odds are pretty fair uh so again no value okay so the best bet today from uh Europa League is onion Berlin to beat Malmo on the road okay so this is I think the best bet from Europa League okay so let's move to Europa conference League okay I know a Europa conference league so the first game we have underlying against West Ham based on my projections West Ham should be at 1.71 bookmakers have them at 2.06 which means they um there is a value with West Ham so I would pick West Ham at 2.09 I think this is a value no matter if they lose I think we have a value with West Ham uh like person I guess uh maybe tiny value with Beersheba or stay away from this game or go with hapelberg plus 0.5 so they should not lose the game I will simply type minus here because this is very small number molded Shamrock despite we have small odds 1.32 on mold I think there is value with mold but I'm looking for the odds above 1.5 so either you stay away or either you take mold I will type mold at 1.32 because I think there is a value uh just a second uh Yerevan against jealis uh based on my projections it should be a 2.58 bookmakers 2.94 there is some tiny value which is uh if I need to pick anything I would probably go with not to lose this game um at the odds at 1.6 you can you can get Jal giris at around 1.6 okay so this number is plus 0.5 means that they should not lose the game so if they don't lose you win a bet okay uh but again this is smaller number silkyborg again uh based on my projection small value with uh I wouldn't definitely go with silkyborg so if I need to pick I would go with uh uh plus 0.5 you can get them at 2.32 which I think is pretty good price okay so if we sum those two numbers you get we get 50 the 53 53 close to 54 percent of chance to win this game and we have odds 2.32 which means there is a value okay uh civil support balcony uh there is a value with silver Spore uh I give them 84.81 percent of chance to win this game so my fair odds should odds would be around 1.20 1.18 I have so bookmaker 7 1.46 so there is a value with sivas Spore at 1.4 T6 the knee programs for those they're playing on neutral field uh Ukrainian team I will stay away from this game uh there is no value anyway uh Slovak against nice based on my projections should be a little bit bigger favorite uh so maybe time evaluate knees at 1.98 I would stay away from this game too couldn't partisan based on my projections the odds are fair so no value assault Mark against apollon based on my projections uh up Altman should be at 1.30 bookmakers 1.34 or if you use American odds those are my projected those bookmaker so there is some value with alkma but I wouldn't touch this uh as alkmaar at 1.34 there is some value with the Altman at 1.34 but I don't know if this is worth betting Basel slow run based on my projections uh sloven should be at 1.32 I give them 75.76 percent of chance to win this game and this is a good value on Basel at 1.61 okay I think this is pretty good bet at this price this is RFC this is some Latvian team I don't know how to even pronounce this but RFC against Basics here this is Turkish team um small odds on Turkish team but uh if you need to pick anything basic here at 1.37 is better team and also some value okay gained your garden uh bookmakers have gained at 1.64 I have them as a smaller favorite despite I give them 50.96 percent of chance to win this game uh so there is no value betting on gained so if I need to pick anything I would go with your garden or stay away from this game okay your garden you can get them at plus 0.5 so they should not lose this game at 2.32 okay not 2.30 so this is also I think pretty solid price hurts against Fiorentina and the best of my projections 13 should be at 1.38 or minus 261 bookmakers 1.4 T6 so there is Fiorentina there's some value with Fiorentina at 1.46 with these bigger teams because no matter if Fiorentina is uh playing I don't know if they are playing in Championship or something like that but there are certain teams that are big teams right with good fans with some history and so on okay and I don't know how motivated they are to play in this conference league so this is always a tricky one but um because we champions league for the last 10 years we have basically the same team so we have same teams every single year with couple of teams that are changing at the bottom but but I thought that the rest of the teams uh those teams that are placed from I don't know 7 to 13 in Italy or those big leagues and then when they come to some conference League or Europe League this is basically their only chance right so Fiorentina is I don't know maybe 6 17 in Italy based on popularity we have big teams Inter Milan Juventus then we have Lazio Roma so Atlanta is good thing last year so and then we have Fiorentina and some other teams and they don't have a lot of chance in winning champions league right so they focus uh on a conference league and Europe League so we saw Mourinho who who won uh conference League I think with Roma right and they were celebrating like it was uh really huge and we solved this trend and I believe that this I don't know how they how are they motivated but I believe that in the future they will be much more motivated for these leagues because Champions Leagues becomes more like American sport where you have 30 teams 30 best teams and they they are not uh changing right so in Champions League as as I said 50 of teams are always the same okay so anyway Fiorentina value slavia slowly uh I don't know how to pronounce this no value uh we have Villarreal against Austria Vienna we are there playing uh on no traffic not on no traffic but on another Stadium I don't know how this will affect on this game but I would definitely stay away from this game as you see my projected odds 1.09 bookmakers 1.16 okay so the best bet today we have couple of pretty good bets here I think West Ham is solid bed um mold if you like to play uh small odds uh is a value then we have uh Siva sport also very solid odds uh we have uh Basel we have basil which I think is the best bet today okay basil is the best bet and then we have buses here but this is those are small oats I also think uh dual Garden is a solid bed also uh stahua at this price is also solid bit okay so we have couple of interesting bets so if you can include my numbers with your own analysis and with your own logic uh I think we can make some good bets but the best bet in conference league is based on my opinion not based on my opinion but based on my numbers uh if we exclude those small odds I think Basel at home to beat slovan okay so based on analysis of all 32 games I think the best bet uh for uh Europa League is Union Berlin uh at the odds 2.0 and the best bet for conference league is Basel at 1.61 okay uh so if you like the video please like it subscribe to the channel share with your friends if you think they will get some value and more videos like this will come all my bets are always backed by numbers not just opinions and if you want to learn how to use numbers please visit onto blockchains.com where I can teach you how I bait for the last 15-20 years okay thank you for watching