Columbus Crew vs LAFC Picks ⚽️ | 2023 MLS Cup Predictions 🏆

Intro welcome in to the 2023 MLS Cup Final preview it all comes down to Columbus and lafc in the final on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. eastern time now last week in the Conference Finals I went with both teams to score in Cincinnati and Columbus and the over 2.5 with lafc and Houston and that's a check and a check to both of those games so let's see if we can end the season on a high here in an exciting MLS Cup Final between columb nla at lower.com field let's give a Recap quick recap of the Conference Finals now over in the East final it was Cincinnati and Columbus Cincinnati was up two nothing and it could have been much more if not for some off sides and some big Saves by Columbus keeper Patrick schy it was still to nothing though with 20 minutes to go in the game Wilfred nzi from Columbus made some key substitutions he subed on Julian gresle Christian Ramirez soon after that gresle made a cross of the ball and it resulted in an own goal so it was 2 to1 75 minutes into the game and then in the 86th minute Columbus was passing the ball within the 18 yard box it falls to Diego Rossi he scores the tie and goal basically Columbus took over this game from the 75 minutes on in that last quarter of the game going into extra time they end up getting the winner with another sub Molino crossing the ball into the box with cooo heading it over to Ramirez to head it home for the winner and send Columbus into the final now it's another rare road playoff win for Columbus as they are just 25 and 11 all time on thead road but they've now won their last two on the road this playoffs now they won have to worry about that here as they'll be at home hosting this game if we look at the stats from that Eastern final Columbus had 64% possession they LED in shots TW shots 26 to 11 shots on target 8 to6 and Corners 8 to3 there other Playoff games before that they beat Atlanta two nothing at home in round one game one then they lost in game two 4 to2 in Atlanta and then won game three 4-2 back home in Columbus in the conference semi-finals they went into Orlando and came away away with a two nothing win and that game did though end drawn 0 in regulation and needed extra time now let's switch over to the Western final was lafc and Houston LFC they got plenty of early chances in the game they came out strong Carlos B having some chances there was a big save at the other end by Maxim kpo to keep things tied there was more chances by vea after that but there was multiple off sides that denied him of a goal then LFC opened the scoring late in the first half came off a corner kick keini heading on goal holling head scoring off the rebound that's his third goal in the playoffs which puts him only behind Dennis banga and cooo with four uh with as each of those players have four goals in the playoffs now LA's second goal came off of palaso cross in the second half that goal got kicked in for an OG from Franco Escobar in the 80th minute and it was game over from there lafc overall definitely dominated the chances in this game even though they allowed Houston to have basically all of the ball and they trusted they would have more game changers to score when they got the ball and they certainly did in that use that strategy to their advantage stats in the game Houston had 71% possession but La had that shots Edge at 18 to10 shots on target 6 to5 and the corners 10 to3 LA's other Playoff games they beat Vancouver 5-2 at home and one- nothing on the road in round one then in the conference semi-finals they went on the road in Seattle and won one- nothing so it's three straight clean sheets now for La in the playoffs and they're undefeated in seven games going back into the regular season let's look at the odds Odds and Stats now for Saturday's MLS Cup Final I'm looking over at bet 365 right now Columbus to win in regulation is at plus 120 the draw 250 LFC plus 220 now to advance and win the trophy by any means so in regulation or extra time or in penalties Columbus it's odds on at minus 163 while LFC are plus 120 looking at some of the scoring markets in this game bets on over 2.5 goals as- 1118 under 2.5 minus 106 Botham teams to score minus 143 both teams to score no plus 105 now if you want to get involved in the goal scoring props let's take a look at those as well and see which players are favored to get on the score sheet and it's no surprise that kushu Hernandez and Dennis banga leave the scoring odds at plus 120 and plus 160 respectively banga won the Golden Boot with 20 goals along with seven assists in the regular season overall he has 37 goals in all competitions this season which is just one shy of the 2019 record held by his teammate Carlos coo had 16 goals 11 assists he was third in total goal contributions he leads all playoff scoring right now four goals and two assists banga is tied in the in the scoring though if you just look at goals he also has four goals for Columbus Christian Ramirez now has back-to-back game-winning goals coming in as a sub he's priced at plus 187 as the third most favored player to score Thea is the next lafc member who makes an appearance in the odds at plus 210 now if you were looking for a long shot value bet here you could look to La Defender Ryan holl head who has three playoff goals and he was third in team scoring this season in the regular season with seven goals he's priced way down the list at 7 to1 odds holling stad has 15 goals in 84 games in all competitions for our AFC in his career despite being a Defender so that would be a good value bet there now let's look at some stats and trends for this game let's run off a bunch of key numbers from the season Columbus in go gos for Columbus was first overall lafc were ninth goals against Columbus were tied in 13th lafc were fifth XG Columbus 1st LFC 3rd XGA Columbus 9th LFC 6th non-penalty XG per 90 Columbus first LFC 4th shots Columbus second LFC 1 shots on target Columbus 4th LFC second shots allowed Columbus third lafc second shots on target allowed Columbus were tied for 13th LFC third attacking third touches Columbus first LFC fourth penalty area touches Columbus first LFC second attacking third touches allowed Columbus second LFC 5ifth and penalty area touches allowed Columbus 6 and LFC 2nd possession wise Columbus had the most possession on average in the league per game at 57.1 while LFC were 10th at 51.2 now those are lots of numbers that I just threw at you but basically to just summarize it if you were following along most of all those numbers are very top uh ranked very high so both Columbus and lafc have both been great offensively Columbus being exceptionally great offensively lafc has been strong defensively as well and while Columbus hasn't necessarily been poor defensively they have given up a fair amount of shots they are only 13th in goals allowed so that would be the one weakest spot amongst the two teams will be the Columbus defense let's get in to the best bet for this game and give a little summary of some more betting stats here there's little head-to-head history to look at the teams did not play each other this season so overall they're head-to-heads there's only been three all-time meetings between them LFC has won them all two nothing in 2022 3 nothing in 2019 and two nothing in 2018 these teams are both well coached as well LFC head coach Steve trelo has yet to lose an MLS Cup playoff game and know if he wins on Saturday and gets that trophy that would make him the second coach in history to win back-to-back titles in his first two seasons in the league and Columbus as well they have Wilford Nazi as their head coach it's his first season with the team in Columbus after being with Montreal last year in the last two years he has the most regular season wins 36 and is tied with Jim curtain of Philadelphia for the most points 122 in that time as a head coach he's also a two-time coach of the year finalist but let's let get back to some stats on the field and some betting Trends now the crew average the highest possession of any team this season they're likely going to do so again here LC were more than willing to concede possession to Houston and it worked in their advantage they'll probably do the same they can take the same approach here the main difference I see though is the Dynamo lacked quality finishers to actually take advantage of all that possession that they had Columbus that's not that won't be the case case here as they certainly do have players capable of scoring if you've been betting on crew games this season you'll know that their games have produced goals and lots of them in the 45 overall games they've played in all competitions there have been at least two goals in 42 of them also in those 45 games they've scored in an incredible 41 games however they also have conceded in 34 so that's going back to what I just said before that despite they them scoring a lot they also are known to concede goals for LFC their games have also seen two or more goals in 40 of their 50 51 across all of their games in different competitions this year so I think based on all that the safest way to bet this game is probably to bet on the goals market and not worry about a winner but if I had to pick probably going to lean LFC especially at this Underdog price giving them the better value this is their third final of the season they previously lost the two the first two finals they made it to losing to Mexican opponents in both the CCL as well as the campon Cup Final they'll have that extra motivation and not want to go 0 and three in finals which would be a very poor distinction and they also want to be the first team to win back-to-back cups since their cross toown Rivals the LA Galaxy who did so in 2011 and 2012 but HomeField is very important MLS and five of the last six hosting teams have won the title on their pitch in the final Columbus if we look at them specifically this season they have just one home loss in their past 29 home games in all competitions going all the way back into last season going back to August 2022 they're also undefeated in each of their past 17 home so home field should be a huge Advantage for them still like I said earlier if either team has a weakness it has to be the Columbus defense amongst the 18 playoff teams that made it this year the 46 goals they conceded was the sixth most of those teams and that issue has continued as well in the playoffs where they have given up eight goals in five games lafc were the more balanced team this year they scored plenty of goals themselves but the 39 goals they conceded were the fifth fewest overall in MLS so if we put all that together I think the best bet if if you are okay with a little bit shorter odds you can still find both teams to score at minus 140 over at Caesars if you want a little bit better odds I don't think betting a little bit more than uh little bit few more than two goals is a Bad Bet either you go both into scoring over 2.5 at plus 120 odds at bet 365 and like I said if I had to lean I'd probably go LFC to advance and you can get that at plus 120 as well so there we have it that's the Outro last game of the season in the books I've been breaking down MLS games all season long from week one back in February through the leagues cup in the summer months and all the way to Saturday's final game so thank you to everyone who's been watching these MLS videos all season liking commenting sharing your picks hopefully some of the stats and bets that I've given all year long have helped us all make some money be sure to stay tuned to this channel for more picks from other sports in the MLS offseason like the Champions League Europa League NHL NFL and more good luck everybody this weekend