Houston vs LAFC | MLS Expert Predictions, Soccer Picks & Best Bets

[Music] [Applause] [Music] uh Houston Dynamo after losing 3-2 at Salt Lake they just welcome in the hottest team in major league soccer to town in lafc and he can get lafc to win this game at plus 155 lafc have three wins in a row and points in 10 straight games and they're coming off that El trafico Derby Victory 2-1 over the Galaxy midweek the total is set at 2.75 I'm trying to approach this match with a little bit of caution but trying to have a pro LFC play because they're just a better team far better team than Houston um what do you make of the line there because it's really tempting just to say give me a lafc on the money line here A Plus 155 Bob that's a nice number tempted tempted right here I'm taking it and I am running with it uh I understand like did we not just watch lafc at the Rose Bowl midweek like all of us everyone who bets on MLS watched the same live game in your takeaway is that they should be even with Houston in a Houston match it just doesn't make any sense to me um LFC is you know very close to even with with Houston 155 to 160 so yeah I'm taking LFC to win if you look at Houston they're winning but they've had some easy you know uh matches they've beaten Quakes Timbers early Charlotte and Colorado at home not exactly World beaters their lead goal scorer alyu has just six goals and the offense as a whole has just 29 goals All Season that's the same amount as Atlanta United and San Jose Earthquakes and this is a team that is again almost tied for LFC with uh you know odds for this match just doesn't make any sense to me LFC unbeaten last 5 away matches 41 and0 in that span picking up 13 points and uh clicking on all cylinders highest expected gold differential in the league at plus 20.1 and they're tied with Miami at plus 19 for actual goal differential they're stopping opponents they're putting balls in the back of the net one particular spot I'm playing uh close attention to for this is the Houston defense um Franco EST Escobar is out on Yellow Card accumulation and on that side of the ball if LFC puts out a similar lineup is going to be bogush bogush the the young I believe he's a Polish player is he's looking to either get a good spot for his next Landing job once uh JW comes in the summer or fighting for a spot on the starting roster come summer when there are obviously talented players coming in the same position that he plays he's been playing outside of his mind and uh you know having him uh on the correct side of the ball with Franco Escobar on that yellow card suspension has me all kinds of excited for this weekend yeah Tillman suspended as well for lafc I I'm going to be a little bit more cautious in my Approach because I kind of feel like it's a trap it's a trap Houston play a low events style of football at home they've only scored 10 goals in or sorry 12 goals in 10 home matches and previous to that 3-2 loss at Salt Lake they had points in the previous six games overall so there's no there's no wow factor karasia who I actually think is their best player still with Panama at the at the Copa of America um and lafc all the metrics tell you like this is a very good Wayside based on their expected goal differential per 90 minutes second best in Major League Soccer but 14 goals scored and 16 conceded away from home how does this make sense they're 42 and four away from home they drew at Austin they've had some they some eggs away from home this year they're not losing these games but they're not going to play teams off the field like they do at home so that's why I'm going to back the lafc pick them if it's a draw then you get your money back at minus 112 that's a good enough number for me to play ball I don't feel like it's too far out of range where it's not worth it it's not plus 155 mind you but I'm still getting Pro LFC action in this game and just avoiding one of those weird things like their last two trips to Houston they lost 4-0 and they lost 2-1 and Houston were down to 10 men in that game it's just like I don't know what it is I can't go all in on the money line like you Bob so I'm going to play a little bit more safe on this one at minus 112 in a pickup so that's a great number two yeah exactly yeah and and for me on this one guys like when I was looking at this game I had it on the sheet I took it off the sheet I added it the part that worries me is this is just it's a horrible uh spot here so to speak for this lafc team because they're coming off a rivalry game that had hoopla around it that was a stand alone game they get the win in that and now they play the Houston Dynamo a team that they are better than that by all metrics they should be able to smash this team and potentially do it by margin but then the look ahead potentially comes because Houston next week they don't have an opponent that they really have to worry about you know what I mean like they'll be ultra focused on this game for LFC they have the crew coming up the next time that they'll be uh here on the pitch following this game um sure they'll get a bit a little bit of rest before that point since there are going to be no midweek fixtures uh but it just the spot worried me a little bit here for lafc which is why it kept me off it I lean that way with you guys but if I was getting uh you know like plus money at the Dynamo getting a quarter goal uh you know and potentially playing towards a draw that could have been something that made my card um it was just I sheer pass for me but I definitely understand what lands you guys on the better team in this game for sure maybe just not the better spot all right so Bob was tempted and he's going all in he's making that Pro LFC moneyline play at a really good number Bob's Red Hot right now so who is anyone to question him uh me and a pick him at minus 112 [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music]