UNSOLD HOMES SURGE 500% as RECORD CONTRACTS CANCELLED | Orlando FL Housing Update

hey friends there are major changes unfolding in the housing market across Orlando changes that if they do not slow or change direction very soon we're coming to the end of the peak season and and we're seeing some major signs that show us that going into 2025 you can expect a big shift in home price I'm going to let you see the data so you can make a determination for yourself I don't want to be at risk but you got to understand Florida Association of Realtors here in the last two days just dumped a massive amount of data you've already been seeing a bunch of mixed headlines throughout the country over the past month weird things going on and a lot of that's taking hold in the South so a lot of what's going on and you're hearing about builders that can't unload properties builders that are giving back buyers here in the Orlando market 30 to 50 Grand at the sale in order to buy their interest rate down to as low as four to 4.99% for a 30-year fixed so we can reverse the interest rate back to a number we have not seen in 2 years yet the houses are still not selling Builder finished unsold homes in the south is reached 2009 levels means they have a very big backlog of homes which shows us buyers are on strike there is ever increasing evidence now that this strike which honestly has already hit parts of Florida very hard over the last two years not been felt in Orlando in fact many of you watching this video might be saying to yourself I don't understand the economy you're describing Jared because that's just you know I put my house in the market Market a year ago and it just flew that's we're in a way different world right now so if you have not been paying attention people that are on the market right now would tell you exactly what I'm saying is true they would say you know what he's right this makes total sense The Narrative is getting interesting and I think what's really the head scratcher is a lot of people are Torn Between Two camps and I'm going to show you the data so you can kind of decide which Camp you fall in one Camp is sitting here a bit concerned because they've seen price go vertical for 2 years 3 years 70 to 100% price gains housing prices on homes that were $400,000 three short years ago that are asking a million a million one a million three and they're going there's an internal debate as to this is a bubble but is this the first asset bubble that never pops then there's this other side we're you know being fully led to believe is a uh off Landing coming okay so this is all under control and um you know the other side of this is uh is a is a tentative seller you know you might have you have people on the market right now that are noticing there's a lot more homes with for sale signs on my way home I in the last two weeks I've noticed way more this is the story this is the narrative you're hearing this other Camp is starting to say I also am hearing that more of my friends have to sell they cannot not sell they they're at a point where they've borrowed too much money on credit cards something is going on with is putting them in a position whether it's just life change a divorce a relocation they have to sell and they're sitting here looking at this this economy with this everything is is going to change the soft Landing will appear soon right as they're seeing things on a Downs slope okay there's evidence of more unsold homes homes taking far longer to sell prices aren't going raging like they were in the past what is going to turn the tide okay and honestly there's not a lot of evidence on that particular side of the coin but let me help you see some crazy stats in Orlando that I want to show you just so you can kind of get the narrative and we got up this is just part one of some amazing updates that going to help you understand the changes that are kind of unfolding in the Orlando market housing at large but look at what's being reported I'm going to come down to the bottom of this report because at the very bottom we are this literally was released in 24 hours from now and this is the National Data for median sell price how many homes are going under contract how how active are the buyers this will be something I want to compare the rest of Orlando to because you need to have an index okay how is you know Jared's telling me all this information but how does that look versus the rest of the country okay it's very important we always want to do this whenever Florida's on fire like oh look how much Florida's gone way up so much faster than the rest of the country it's it's fun to do it when it's positive but it's not so fun when you have to actually own up to the fact that we're not performing the same as the rest of the country who has the rest similar interest rates as similar market dynamics we have to address what's going we have to look at how we're doing but look at this red fin reports House Hunters are back as monthly payments post first annual decline okay so at the headline what's the headline tell us the headline tells us that oh you know what interest rates dropped so people are buying homes again uh also uh this big affordability crisis put a pin in that baby it's been cancelled but look at this look what the article actually says it says the median us mortgage payment was 2 2587 during the first four weeks of August it's the lowest level since February sounds big right it is down .1% it's down one basis point which is $2 I don't even know it's ridiculous it's not even a it's negligible report and this is a tiny drop it admits by the second paragraph um in the fir but it's but it marks the first time in four years that monthly payments have posted any decline at all and ultimately it comes down to these 15mon low interest rates 6.5% my friends listen if the builders can't get the job done at 4.99 this is not going to gain traction am I right can we all agree okay Jared but but the but the headline just said that buyers are back at house hunting mode they're back in the market now okay look what it says it's not that they're buying they're touring houses okay now mind you interest rates have been dropping for three months interest rates are down 90 basis points nearly one full percent over one year ago okay the problem is affordability even with this being a lower interest rate is way worse so for everybody sitting here thinking oh you know what the interest rate came down so that everybody they can afford no no they can't you know why because their HOAs cost more now this year their insurance went up this year their food bills still went up this year inflation most recent number shows everything has grown by 3% in terms of its inflationary price and we all know that shelter is costing way more than that the reality is unaffordability has not attracted the buyer now how do we know that because my friends look what it says about pending home sales pendings tell us if we're actually going to produce more sales with these lower interest rates interest rates that are lower than last year by a significant margin but look at this there are fewer sales pending home sales are down 5.3% year-over-year which is the biggest decline in nine months you know if you wanted to write the headline accurately it would say interest rates are the lowest in 15 months but buyers there's fewer buyers taking action that at any point in nine months so the real headline is that buyers still are out they're still on strike and this is the same for Orlando so what I'm going to do I'm actually show you some of the most recent data that has come out that I put together so because I went through I pulled all the data this my friends is US versus last year okay so this is all of the Orlando market how are we doing in July that just passed okay now mind you to set the presence for what you're about to see you have to understand what happens in July July is the Pinnacle it is the Pinnacle celebration of the peak of the entire moving year it's the entire it's it's the top of the top for our Marketplace okay it's when we're just putting the cherry on top of moving season which starts around March goes all the way to July every single year I'm going to show you some incredible date on this take a look at this in July we are tracing against a pathetic 2023 okay you have to understand we sell probably 3,500 homes every moving season July something like that okay we barely got over 2500 we got barely got to 2600 homes last year and this year we're almost dead flat with it we sold 20 five more homes okay 1% difference okay so we're dead flat to last year we're not selling more homes than last year even with lower interest rates cash sales down 8% that's a problem your cash buyers are basically the only people who are immune to interest rates and they're they not buying more houses look at the median home price which again let's take a look at this this is the national this is the national median home price for um the rest of the country is up 3.6% we are down we are only up about half of that so we're trending half let me tell you the next thing that I want to show you look at this in the rest of the US people putting homes in the market are putting them in at 6% higher than a year ago okay you would say Jared well that's because they're going to put them on the market at 6% they're probably going to negotiate down to three and then when it sells they're still going to be 3% above last year so so look at this what this is saying is Brokers across the country and sellers meeting together look at the inventory they look at how many homes in their area are for sale they they said an asking price this says that they feel pretty strongly about it let's look at the asking price in the Orlando market okay you're going to notice that throughout the state by the way this is all blue and you guys know where I'm going if you watch my channel everything is down okay all the median um asking prices except for a couple areas are negative that means we're asking less look at this so down here at the bottom look what you see over the past four months in the Orlando market every single month the asking prices are going lower and lower again I just got July data this by the way is a feed from realtor.com everybody's going to ask in the comments where do you find that data realtor.com we are down nearly 4% okay so we're down 3.8% we're asking 3.8% less now if you factor that against the rest of the country we're at a at a 10% difference okay if you factor the fact the rest of the country 6% they're going to come down a little bit they're probably still going to be positive in their landscape of pricing when you see Orlando going negative by nearly 4% and they're doing it consistently that means more and more inventory in Orlando market is going negative to last year leading indicator which says you are not going to be able to bank on this price staying above positive that means our MSL price is going to start falling okay more to come on this particular point I'm going to talk to you some very interesting details on what you can expect in 2025 with price for your a homeowner you're buying a house you need to pay close attention um average price is up but average price is not as a great accurate measure of um of actual we're seeing happen um dollar volume was 1.4 billion last year dollar volume is approximately 1.4 billion this year median uh percent of original list price negative 1.3 so the sellers in 2024 are capturing 97.4% of what they ask their original ask that means they're negotiating about 2 and a half% below keep that in mind right so they're going to ask 3.8 and then they're going to give another 2 and a half% away on top of that precipitates a swing of about 6% possibly on some of this inventory that means there are going to be people selling Homes at a loss to last year this is the interesting thing so imagine this starts happening in different markets in Orlando you got to understand there's places like illa County that have huge FHA buying those people that bought FHA in the past two or three years they only put 3% down okay so if they put 3% down and now they have to sell the house now they can't even make what they made last year when they bought it so they're bringing the price down beneath by the way this is not just be oal account you're going to see this in Lake and you're going to see it in Orange you're going to see it in seminal depends on where the market is you're going to have people in those marketplaces now that basically have little skin in the game so they're going to be possibly homes are selling 3% less than what they paid their mortgage balance equals that because they put 3% down so now and what does it cost to sell a home four five 6 7% I mean are they bringing money to closings or are we seeing short sales coming again think about it think about what precipitates think about what comes next think about what happens in an environment where the Federal Reserve Cuts interest rates we're going to come back to that in a second look at this um median time to contract went from 16 days last year to 27 days so it now takes um 70% longer to sell now you say Jared 27 days ain't too too bad right but that's a lot of homes are over that number a lot of homes are months and months and months new pending sales new pending sales are slightly up good sign but pending inventory is down okay so you have a lot more unsold inventory and at the same time buy this is again think about this how are pendings doing the rest of the country we just we just told the article earlier said the rest of the country pendings are down 5.3% uh in Orlando it's down 6.2 and we have a lot more active inventory look at the look at the rest of the country by the way on inventory active listings in the rest of the country are up 18% new listings hitting the market in the rest of country there's more listings throughout the US going on the market it's it's a slight positive 3.4 active listings the unsold inventory is starting to get higher throughout the rest of the country now Florida and particularly Orlando is way over active so remember the rest of the country is up 18% and how many unsold homes Orlando market up 61% by the way if you've been watching this whole time you're like what is he talking about Orlando Market Orlando metro this is a 4Count area seol Lake Oola and orange it's a big area that if you're in the Orlando probably 45 minutes any direction an hour in any direction you're inside of it okay this is the marketplace that it's it's a governmental area but this is how data is pulled it's pulled by this particular area obviously you can pull it in other ways but this is an easy way to get a um a temperature on everything look at new listings by the way remember I just told you that the amount of people pushing homes into the market across the country is up slightly it's about 3% higher than last year in Orlando we're up 11.6% let me bring all this home for you CU there's some really interesting data points I want you to see listen to this listen to this Orlando metro okay interest rates are 1% lower approximately than they were a year ago but inventory of unsold homes has changed dramatically listen to this okay so we're up nearly 62 63% more unsold homes where are the unsold homes this tells us a lot about what's changing in our economy look at this in the entry price this is really the Bottom Rung of buying a home because the um the average price in Orlando is I don't know what is around 400,000 let me take a look real quick where is it at average sell price oh okay so average is 543 for Orlando metro the median is 448 in 2024 okay okay that gives you an idea if you're looking at single family homes in 3 to 400 you under the median and you're under the average so um 70% more homes okay this number you're looking at my friends is the end of moving season okay so we're going from March to July where was selloff effective and where was selloff super slow and there's tons of inventory sitting around look at this there is way more homes in the3 to $400,000 price range than in several years I mean you're talking you have to go back four or five years to find as many homes sitting in this slice you're now think about that you're a buyer you have the ability to buy a home at this price point which to give you an idea at the end of last summer there were like 900 homes available if you were in this price point and your interest rates were higher okay now we have like double that almost 2,000 homes which you got to understand across all price categories you're talking 8,000 properties this is now becoming a larger segment of the marketplace why two things think understand this you have the4 to $600,000 price range more houses aren't selling in that range are trickling down so they're falling into that category is getting wider because you're seeing slippage in the market the other thing you're seeing as well by affordability we're seeing a massive shift in the growth of the rental pocket across the US okay so the ability for people to buy a home the rental segment is growing by triple okay so people are opting for shelter under the rental side because of the savings this is a problem so here it is we are now at a point where interest rates are around low 6% range and buyers are still opting out and this is a problem because if you can't get people to buy your home out of the 3 to 400 they're not going to move up to the 4 to 600 the people in the 4 to six aren't going to move up you got to understand every time there's a correction the bottom falls out first and the first signs of weakness will often times present at the very bottom because that's where recession affects people first these are the people people that buy in this particular range are the ones that get squeezed the hardest when monetary policy changes these are the ones that squeeze the hardest whenever job offs happen or they have the dip in emergency funds this is where you see the pain first by the way this to me rhymes with everything else you're seeing in the market Starbucks's earnings are off McDonald's earnings are off staple Like Home Depot earnings are off all these companies by the way you're having Subway and McDonald's and all these companies trying to figure out how to cut their prices to lure a consumer who is busted okay this happened before this happened in 2007 okay exact same thing happened little tiny little discounting incentives and all this kind of stuff and the low end of the marketplace found challenge okay pay attention to this this this is interesting you have the low end of the market which is most impacted not just by these parties being closest to the struggle but also they are the most um this particular price segment has a lot of investor activity investors have pulled way out so we have way less investor activity when you start to see all these politicians talking about Wall Street buying up real estate that stuff is way old news I mean that market the market place is not being bought up investor traffic is way down in 2024 coffee everyone but take a look at what's next the 4 to $600,000 price range down 39% and I would tell you this is the lowest bracket because it's losing inventory to this one right it doesn't have as many homes in it not because they're all selling because we know they're not they're moving out of the bracket and I'll say the same as for the million plus look at this 61% more homes in the 6 to 699 and look at this 46 more homes in the one plus where interest rates aren't a primary concern but on the bright side marry the house and date the rate the Mantra has finally faded buyers are on strike folks let me show you a few more key points to this summer okay very clear evidence that we are going to see some interesting season in Fall for pricing I'm going to tell you what you need to do about if you're looking to buy you own a house now by the way if you own a house I'm gonna wait till the end I'm gonna I got some really good I got some very important things you need to understand look at this summer 2024 this is the closing volume my friends look at this 2023 was one of the lowest years on recorded like you have to go back 26 years to find how bad our sell off was in 2023 you have to go way back look at this I have 2022 here 2019 and 2018 look at this 2024 we were 25% less homes than pre pandemic okay the pre- pandemic the norm right but we have as much homes as we did then we have a lot more we have as much unsold Supply every bit as much as unsold homes in Orlando now for the first time in a long time it's sitting there but we do not have the activity this is a 13,000 homes is like it's like if we took the entire month of May off and didn't sell a thing then you'd have what we have in 2024 so if we' had done that in 2019 hey let's just take May off you'd post a 133 so there's way less Homes Real Estate professionals morgage professionals they're struggling right now this is why look at this 2023 we sold 4 we sold more houses last year which is mindboggling to me 2022 we sold 16,000 homes even as interest rates surged for the first time they went from like 4% 3% that that summer to six they were like 5 to 6% range by the end of summer we still sold over 16,000 homes before the bottom fell out now look at this this is a very very very important factor for you to understand months of supply is getting crazy in Florida look at this this is the Orlando Marketplace months of Supply is the measure of of supplying demand all at once if you stop selling homes you did I'm sorry if you sto listing homes you stop putting any homes in the market how long would it take you to sell everything that you have look at this 3.6 months this is a vibe in the market that we have not felt since 2015 you have to go back to early 2015 to find this much inventory selling as slowly as is right now okay this my friends precipitates price reductions the higher this goes the the more anxious certain sellers will get they will set new lows at that point so people will then start to reduce price because this is not slowing okay I will tell you the only bright side of July is this we were at 3.5 months in June we only went up one tenth of 1% which is phenomenal by itself because look what the month's preceding from May to June we went from 3.2 to 3.5 from April to May 3 to 3.2 I mean we have been Le keeping by two 2/10 3/10 single month okay so the only thing that we can say is hey at least at least July wasn't that awful with closings some closings took the steam off of how much but this is going to keep going my friends and this isn't good look at here's why here's why look at this right here this was the first time that months of Supply this was the end of this chaotic market right here towards the middle of 2022 the interest rates started climbing and all of a sudden the amount of inventory that wasn't selling starts leaping off the bottom overnight okay as that happens no a lot of people don't know this but there was this mini period of time towards the end of 2022 where we lost price like it was like like people thought the end was here they thought this is the bubble popping and here's what happened in Florida between here and here between in mid mid 2022 to the end to the beginning of 2023 Florida as a state had lost 9% in its median sale price something we never see over that stretch the Orlando market was the second strongest economy in the entire State we weren't anywhere near danger at this at this down cycle yet we still lost almost 4% in medium price over the same stretch of time now listen to me on this we find ourselves with 80% more month of Supply going into the fall 2024 than we did in the fall of 2022 hear me again in the fall of 2022 we had an a run up in our months of Supply so it went from like 1.1 to like two months of Supply which is still very low we still lost almost 4% medium price over a temporary stretch of like where everybody including Bank of America and leading economists and Fitch and Moody and everybody's like oh it's over downgrade everything we recover right after that why we started a war we started borrowing like a ma Maniacs America in early 2023 we literally borrow our way out of a of a momentary recession but my friends we are now going into a very precarious position as we go into this fall why because months of Supply M of Supply is the true pulse if you have what's called you you know how you go to the doctor and they want to find out how you're doing and they get blood work BL the months of Supply one of my favorite data points for the housing market because it is your blood work of your economy by the way our month of Supply looks a lot better than Tampa and Jacksonville so we're still we're still behind Miami but the problem is you have to watch the trends you have to see what the trends are telling you and the trends are saying that you know we've got some changes coming now now let me let me give you some final parying thoughts cuz you need to pay attention because you're sitting on this side of the fence going oh you know what elections are are there there's people in the election Camp election is going to change everything okay never has in the past but great meaning um elections do something to housing generally speaking kak could show you a lot of data to say it just comes and goes whatever happens is is happening because of the greater economy as it were okay number two the FED Cuts there's a lot of people just in invested in a Fed pivot the fact that fed is pivoting and they're change you have to understand what we expect with the FED Cuts is more homes for sa okay more homes we're going to have more homes for sale more months of Supply price Cuts right now are already 31% in Orlando three out of 10 31% of all homes already hit price Cuts that's a big number okay you say Jared where is it usually 20% you know it's consistently higher people are slashing prices in order to get out we are going to see more inventory coming for multiple reasons we just had the National Association of Realtors change the rules so now what happens you have all this inventory sitting around and buyers cannot go see the house unless they sign a buyer agreement it's a it's a rule for the Realtors it's the way it works now go look it up you know take my word for it do you think that's going to precipitate more buyer showings or less I don't have a problem with it but I'm just telling you it's how it works so you have the rule changes you're going to have I think a big chunk of more inventory coming into the market why because we have unemployment ticking up unemployment is coming it's going to get bigger it's going to get deeper it's how it works you don't just start losing jobs and all of a sudden it's like miraculously over this is a cycle that we're going to go through we already know if you were paying attention this week as I'm shooting this there was a um huge update that came out where they revised jobs by 88,000 jobs they said we've created nearly a million less jobs than we've been telling you okay and this is the way this stuff goes they don't the reporting on this isn't perfect uh a lot of YouTubers will come out and be like they'll make this big grand stand like oh you know what um they're just being shady with the reporting I mean maybe but maybe not like these types of reports and I'm not on either side politically I'm just telling you the data is imperfect the way they do it is surveying and it's you know when they come out and make the numbers priv uh public they usually have a lot more data that's still not in front of them yet so there's there's stuff that gets revised is how it works but here's what it tells us the most important thing with this jobs data when you pull almost a million jobs out of the economy nobody's surprised because we already see it we already see the structure of the economy fading we already have seen you know I see in the comments all the time people saying saying uh my wife is exx occupation or my husband's ex occupation and he's never been without a job offer and he's trying to get out of this one type of job into this type of job and he's tired of an hour commute both ways no one is calling them back he's put his resume or she's put a resume all over the place and so there's there's hiring freezes there's Mass layoffs you know so so there's there's a lot of cycling changing in the economy and everybody thinks like cuts to the interest rate as like some magical thing it's not I've already proved it okay if interest rate alone would survive the the housing market and solve it then you would not have a record number of brand new unsold homes with 4% interest rates tied to them not selling period and you would not see a continuous unstopped UNG growing decline in home ownership renting is massive growth I mean so here's the thing you have to bank for this fall season with mormor here's the deal too we may or may not be at one of the best times for you to sell a home if you have to sell a home sell it Orlando is still at 3.6 months of Supply it is high historically but if you have to sell I don't see a lot of downside in doing it as soon to now as possible because if things don't Ricochet the other way with some magical parachute that comes from a government or a bank or something like that this may be the best time okay and then if you're a buyer I'm not saying don't buy some people never want to rent they're miserable renting and if you buy in this Marketplace there's going to be opportunities for you to find a seller that you can help that can help you get a better deal okay so you don't you need to be putting aggressive offers in on properties that are past the regular day on Market time for a given area you can get a deal if you find something that everybody else is passing over you're going to find sellers that are sweating you also need to pay attention to there's a very unique the know location is number one rule in real estate I'm not going to belabor this but you got to understand there's certain Pockets throughout the central florid areas why data is so important can tell you where the motivated sellers are now you should pick a home in the location that best suits you but the location you're picking is either going to have a huge base of unsold inventory and in that case don't do anything dumb don't over index what you pay oh my gosh I see this happening at certain markets um so so I'm not against buying or selling okay so just make no mistake this is not something for you to sit here and say well you know I'm going to call Jared because I can steal a house at 50% of value no you can't now you can get a good bargain you can buy houses at discounts in this economy um and if you have to sell a house you can still sell how will you know what will you sell it at a massive discount not necessarily depends on the market dynamics depends on the appeal of your house but you can't do this you can't go into this without good research this is for the first time for a first time in a long time where there's less emotion needs to be played here do not fear of Miss out Buy on the buy side fomo buying is dangerous right now don't do that don't just to give you an idea of that that's the notion where people would just come in they would get beat all the time they make an offer they wouldn't win they go to the next and then by by the fourth contract they weren't putting any cognitive thought into it why because they knew the house was going to go up 15% in the next year they just needed their name on a house buyers you're not in that market anymore okay you're in a very flat market so if you don't plan to own that house for a very long time you probably shouldn't be buying right now if if you especially aren't putting a lot of skin in the game if you're just if this is a shelter cost decision for you and you hate renting knock yourself out get a deal but find someone who can help you do it right and if that is you know my team I would love to help you out anywhere in the country have a team not just here in the central Florida Market but Florida wide and the rest of the markets as well and you can get help data driven buy and sell doing great things for yourself as well consider joining the membership You' support the channel You' be access to my direct news newsletter you get access to private live streams or you can do Q&A and all those kinds of things on your particular situation that's great for you if you want to know more about housing markets not just in Florida but throughout the country um it's great for realtors that want to know a little bit more about their own market dynamics how to talk more you know talk talk more smart smart forgive me I'm doing this live they talk intelligently that to their to their clients uh just everything in between so consider supportting the channel if you're the this are smash the thumbs up drop down below tell me what you're seeing in the comments let's have a discussion how's the market that you see if you are in the job market what are you seeing if your family member or someone you know a spouse is in the job market how is that going right now is there plentiful opportunities are they having lots of conversations are they winning at the uh interview process let me know but thanks for watching appreciate all the amazing support this Channel's grown Leaps and Bounds over the past month and and um I'm going to have some more amazing updates this is just a start I got a ton more stuff to talk about in Orlando um and it's coming up real soon we'll talk to you real soon