SERIOUS TROUBLE in these THREE ORLANDO Communities! - Get Out Now!

you have to live under a rock to not see all of the headlines that are pointing to the fact that Florida is actually leading the nation in a massive shift in the housing market that leads us to wonder all of us here in Orlando that if you own a home here now or you're considering buying one what exactly is these changes that are going across Florida actually doing to our housing market and you have to understand there is a web of different micro crises going on throughout Florida that are affecting the housing market number one we already know there's a massive hidden cost of ownership and it's slipping in to the Orlando data particularly the cost of insuring your home I've been saying for weeks and weeks and I've been mocked multiple times in my comments gently mocked I'll say as I've pointed out that Disney World's traffic has been incredibly low this year that the summer months never took off and how I visited many weekends during May June and July time frames that I would never visit the park to find empty parking lots and shorter weights on some of the most Mainline attractions tries that's slipping into our data and as it turns out we a heavy Airbnb Market supporting that economy so if the traffic is down maybe just maybe that could throw wrench into the housing market in parts of Central Florida now in today's video I'm going to break out for you a few Trends you need to pay close attention to in the Orlando metro area I'm also going to show you three to five different markets in the Orlando metro zip codes that are at very high risk of toppling prices in the next 18 months and conversely I'm going to show you three to five ZIP codes in the Orlando market that are undoubtedly still a sell's market or at very least the handful of zip codes that have held out you're going to pick up on some threads that are going to show you exactly which markets are hot and which aren't so great so that even if your zip code's not listed you're going to have an analysis of just how it might be doing I'm Jared Jones if you're new to the channel this is my Orlando Focus Channel at doing consistent deep Dives and data analysis for the Orlando metro and maybe some close surrounding suburbs so if you're for that and you appreciate the research of what I'm bringing to you go down below and smash the like button so as many people as possible can see it it helped the channel and I appreciate it and consider subscribing so you do not miss a solid update on what's going on in the Orlando market all right my friends let's jump in the day let me show you what we're looking at this is a high-end software program that I've purchased where we aggregate all the data from realor.com and a bunch of other sources like Zillow and out of it we aggregate some key sources of data to deter determine whether or not these are buyers markets or sellers markets you'd say Jared well how do you figure that out well number one we take all the entire Marketplace and we aggregate how long it takes to sell how many price Cuts you're seeing in a specific zip code how much unsold inventory is stacking up against history is it high is it low is it growing there's a factor for days on Market to see if there's extenda for sale times and lastly we're also considering the mortgage calculation what is affordability like in a given area based on income because ultimately we all know buyers have to purchase these properties and if the local income does not sustain the high cost of mortgage rates at a given time then ultimately that's also going to affect and create a forecast for what home prices might do in a given area so with that in mind let's start by talking about the hottest Market to see we can figure out what's going on in the Orlando Marketplace so number one if you jump ahead of me you're going to ultimately see there's a lot of blue in the Orlando Marketplace Zill has recently come out and measured us a neutral Market meaning we're kind of in the middle between buyer and seller and that is true for some markets but some of our ZIP codes have fallen completely into buyer strength where buyers have more control of the negotiation sellers are at their mercy and ultimately it's a changing time for a lot of marketplaces around Orlando so let's take a look so to start we're going to go right downtown in Orlando so right here you're going to see the very hottest populous Marketplace is 32803 now this particular Market you can see at the peak of 2022 it was at the strongest point sellers had complete control of the marketplace right here this is whenever it was the hardest time was probably February of 2022 and particularly the end of 2021 you would have to put multiple offers you'd have you know competition you wave all of your contingencies you couldn't get an appraisal you're going to give them your first born and maybe let them have the keys to your car in order to get them to accept your offer now look what happened after interest rates climed it started to slide into the beginning of last year and then many of these markets gained some seal leg back and pulled strength towards the seller side again but you can see that even though this is the strongest Marketplace again dividing the graph there is a middle line here at the right around the 50 point so when it drops below a calculation of 50 it tells us that all the five metrics that I told you relating to buyer affordability price cuts and all that you know the aggregating how price is responding and a given zip code drives it to become a buyer Market against the seller side now you can see that ultimately it is changing but yet 32803 Remains the one of the strongest populous markets in our market now look at this now you would see hey Jared I see three there that don't look blue are they all voting for Trump no that's not a political map this is actually 32789 this is Winter Park which is dead even on 50 and then you have 32804 which I believe memory serves as a College Park zip code again this is down Town historic homes desirable and affluent okay so you'll remember I did a Winter Park update not too long ago on this channel got a pretty good view count 3 to 4 thousand people I think watched that and I was noticing that in the affluent Market of Winter Park specifically you say jar what makes it a fluent well it's average price median sale price is higher than the rest of the market so Orlando in the metro area is around $400,000 median $399 to be exact and you'll find that windir Winter Park Golden Oak area 32836 some of these markets we're going to see today those are much higher they're 700,000 plus so they're nearly 100% higher in median sell price and what's happening in those markets is you know we're seeing twofold situation sellers can be more patient because maybe they're not getting to the bottom of their cash that a lot of other people in the market are and if there are potentially layoffs things of that nature increases inventory so we are seeing the unemployment rates rise in Florida and as well as nationally we're also seeing credit card debt you know going through the roof and ultimately that affects different base of population differently okay look what's happening ultimately these are not settling towards buyer markets as fast as some of the others now you say Jared I see two more right there yes you do well you don't see Horizon west by the way which is Winter Garden you actually see that well into buyer territory but look at windir windir is not and neither is 32836 there's 32836 and both windamir and South you would say Jared what what's what are these known for these are known to be very high Butler Chain of Lakes Waterfront Premier Waterfront locations okay so these are going to sell at a very good number okay now the same deal applies higher affluence less push in for their listings they don't have to sell they can sell when they want and maybe they're discretionarily choosing not to the other thing is the buyers we're seeing this around the country the upper end of the market is less affected by these hidden costs they're not as affected by some of these other issues and ultimately what's happening is those buyers and the luxury end in Florida I would say that's 1.52 million up okay you'd say Jared isn't a million-dollar home a luxury home in in these areas no it's not it's a upper middle class home okay no offense to anybody selling their home for million dollar but take a look at it you know that's A5 $600,000 House of five six years ago and that is our middle class okay so it's upper middle no no less but point I'm making is we're seeing across the data us-wide the luxury end seems to be more healthy less affected the entry market and the Middle Market people selling first home going to Second Home which all of these I tell this to everybody on the marketplace when we're doing these kinds of updates you have to understand you have to have people moving up the ladder you can't just have the upper in trading and the bottom in Falling it it's going to precipitate into negative realities and you're seeing those change right here in front of us so we're going to take a step further in understanding those markets but you say Jared well if you pull back do you see any other RS yeah there are some they're outlier markets that are not highly populated Geneva no offense Geneva but I think there's like 5,000 of you out there your Market still looks pretty strong 3279 again these are very low populace down here keenansville again no offense those are not big markets no one lives there okay they're probably going to be buyer markets forever but take a look at these areas now we're going to go to the other side of the category you say Jared where I see some dark blue what is that well the 29 look at this I think this is ultimat Springs San Lando these are older houses again they blew up they blew up in Co and now all of a sudden they're not the prettiest on the Block okay and I I think ultimately that's what's happening you see where are the areas that those are that are changing you see a ton of blue in the South which is oila county we're come back to that in a second but let's talk about the worst of the worst which by the way Davenport is considered Metro Orlando by us locals because if you look at the edge of our metro map the government stops it right here but if you look this is Highway 27 and Four Corners this is Disney right here this is outside of the map which I'm going to come back to but these are leading the way these are some of the worst off buyer buyer markets I'm going to come back to that at the end of the video but stay tuned for that but I want to kind of highlight say okay if it's not those those officially AR in our Metro where is the the weakest week inside of our actual Marketplace well you have these areas right here I see one right here one right here one right here let's talk about them are there any common threats well you again I said Ultima Springs this is San Lando right you have S Lando Springs sorry this is a bunch of older one level homes like 70s built and and these people man they were lucky to get 250,000 like no disrespect I know there's a lot of nicer homes and and higher price but this was affordable right can we all agree to that jump in the comments tell me if you agree with it 3270 was affordable 5 years ago but now it's harder to insure it's hard to get insurance on it's got it needs a lot of re work to close them you know all these different things and and I would say that that's true of every single one of these zip codes but they used to be affordable now they're not so affordable and I think a buyer is now pushing back saying I want affordable otherwise I go somewhere else could be the case because look at the other two 32839 is an old area and and this is I think Jan Young Parkway Rio Grand we're just outside of the mullet Millennia it's tell me in the comments if you want to live here okay let's just put it that way I'll let you guys talk about it in the comments look over here okay so the top three this is 32822 now this right here is simal I'm sorry simron Boulevard going all the way almost to the airport I think yep almost to the airport this is got you have Holden in here somewhere I think Curry Ford Road runs through here we're not quite to the 417 we're in the Southeast this is what older area this has been developed a long time ago there's a lot of manufactured housing in here there's a lot of older homes there maybe some newer stuff sprinkled in but ultimately this place is actually used to be affordable okay so I think some of this is just a Day of Reckoning these homes are sitting longer buyers have more choice and it's it's a microcosm of of just probably more choice you know but these are having a lot of inventory stack up okay a lot of inventory days on markets getting tougher and affordability is tough okay affecting that buyer bracket now if you are if you're not in these three areas you say Jared well what's next what's the next week link right over here West CMI so you have 34747 and everybody in celebration let me hear from you in the comments because you're in the same zip code doesn't necessarily mean you're probably impact this is why you have to do your research in a given Market because I would guess that maybe celebration is over indexing this I didn't do my research on it don't care to but celebration has a higher dollar like you can buy a $500,000 condo in celebration the houses there are 700,000 base entry on up to multi-million over here you have luxury Market Airbnb okay so you say what's 3474 it's massively Airbnb so this is reunion this is ChampionsGate uh I think North yeah Champions Gate's here I think this is right right above it and again this is highly popularized by Airbnb okay let's take a look now that's a 30 that's a 30 on the market that's way down there but look at this one this is some of the lowest in the area 28 and a 29 9 so you have 28 and 34746 which is South CMI going all the way down to West Lake too now if I zoom out look look where this is everybody way at the bottom of the market now they buildt a bunch of real estate here okay and we're by the way as we talk about these areas like 34771 in St Cloud these areas had major increase in Supply over the past 5 years lot of houses built in these areas itend tends to skew the numbers CU you will see high inventory against history like if I pull 34771 and I show you how many homes are for sale Now versus 5 years ago there's way more homes for sale in that area against history like more than is ever been on the market yet it doesn't seem to be tipping over in real time you like scratch your head like how come there's so many homes on the market like more than ever more than 2018 like there people we were selling a lot of homes in in 2018 2019 like our sales are way off in 2024 there's a lot of homes on the market in that area is it tipping over and the answer is not yet or not re don't that don't don't quote me I didn't say it's going to tip they're going to take a beating in the comments listen the reason why is because over five years the inventory probably is up 30% housing units housing units are way higher in some of these markets so you have to understand that you are seeing more inventory But ultimately that's also because of there just more houses in there work in history okay not all of these I don't think there's more housing way more housing units like there is over here in 34746 34746 and this area north of poana which is 34758 sellers in this market you have to pay close attention because you are having a real hard time in majority of these markets okay you have to and I don't have a listing here right now so I can just shoot you straight if you are in these markets oh I'm gonna try and see if I can get what my neighbor got three years ago in 2021 you're toast you're gonna be on the market forever and probably still never sell so you have to pay close attention to any of these markets that are incredibly blue now let's take a look you can see hey there's a 30 again it's 34772 it's the rural part of St Cloud okay you notice the downtown area of St Cloud is performing as good as Winter Garden is so it's running a 35 and then up here in Horizon West you're running a you have a lot more inventory no question but you aren't seeing you're not seeing appre your your prices getting nailed yet you're not seeing dayson days on Market's starting to drift but it's not getting crazy but it is here and it is here and it is here so Harmony's running a 30 as well so 3 four so these areas in St Cloud and the interesting thing about the Oola Market is in Wonder to watch if you're there is you have to pay attention because those markets have the highest amount of FHA which is the firsttime home buyer type purchase where there's very little skin in the game those people have very low assets they have very low savings they're the ones borrowing on the credit card to buy the grocery and I'm I'm not denigrating anybody I'm saying it's a risk it's a risk of mortgage failures and delinquency and a lot of short sales popping up and things of that nature so again it's a risk it's a risk what does it matter if if you're going to own your house for 10 years don't worry about it okay but if you are thinking I might sell in the next 12 months heed what I'm saying plan accordingly okay consider it a gift and give me a thumbs up in the in the downstairs if you appreciate that take a look at this this is outside of our of our area so so this is Orlando right so look at this this is the north Edge look at the Northeast edge of Lakeland Winter Haven MSA this is the metro area for Lakeland highest foreclosures in the State of Florida by the way coming out of this Market I want if they're from I wonder if they're coming from here because if you look at the if you look at the most beat markets in this area you've got looks like this is Winter Haven but look at Davenport holy cow Davenport 33896 33897 what is this this is Airbnb this is Airbnb is all this is you have again you know don't don't come in here and you're like thinking of buying for my own primary res and you're not going to buy in an Airbnb neighborhood that allows short-term Two Worlds here okay so pay close attention when you're doing business here and same warning look look at this so you have you have West CMI notice the corridor so all this is you know South all this is is blue and look at this is already shifted and you Jared what is it well a lot of this area on the far west is Airbnb Supply is high unsold Supply is very high okay and that's impacting the price so price is changing in real time in those par many these particular markets down Market is changing putting up radical down Market times in a lot of these areas and again as I told you I've always said do your homework because one Community is different from the next they do not all act the same they're not all identical okay so one's going to respond differently than the other you have to know what your neighborhood is doing okay and honestly like if you're planning a sale you know you'd say Jared what does it matter if I know I've got a sell and I'm already deep in a buyer's market if you know you're going to sell it just means time isn't necessarily on your side now okay because people always ask well if it's if it's bad you know you know if this Market is Shifting where I'm at is this you know should I I'm like it might be the best time you have okay it might be the best time ever if you know you are cutting and running otherwise my other option is plan to hold it for a very long time and who cares like there's a lot of people in all of these areas that are in these properties next to nothing and if the assumption is that they can handle the expenses if they can handle the high cost of tax and they can handle the high cost of Interest all those kinds of things are not in a a risk of burying them ever right even if even if revenues change on some of these products projects and they're not making the rental income that they were expecting then who cares but that's it that's the update for now jump down below tell me what update you want to see in the central Florida Market next what kind of video video topics I love to hear about them and ultimately tell me what you're seeing in your area as well smash the thumbs up drop a comment it's a huge thank you to me and I appreciate you for doing it we'll talk to you on the next one