FLORIDA MARKET ABOUT TO EXPLODE | Shocking Data!

amazing headlines we have right now for the first month ever in the history of ever July is actually posting National price point declines today we're going to dig into the top markets in Florida because we have to keep tabs particularly on Miami Tampa Orlando and Jacksonville this is the most requested for markets that I'm ever asked to give and I'm going to give a very deep dive analysis into each of those because maybe just maybe if we're seeing National numbers collapsing and we already know that Florida and Texas leads the headlines no matter where you go for inventory is going super high and the buyers in those marketplaces have pulled way back and that people are converting to renters at some of the highest percentages across the country we have to take this into consideration with a bunch of alarming narratives that we find ourselves seeing so here's the top Story by the way before we jump into the data home prices fell for the first time in any July now as you all know if you watch my channel we have a medium price here that dipped from 445 to 439 950 so approximately 1 and half% something of that nature and moving season Why by the way this is a backl looking narrative if we're now looking and this is just breaking news because we don't even have July data market by market but you have to understand for this to be shaping up this is reporting how buyers were putting homes under contract and to what price two months be before now so this is talking about May when the buyers are putting properties in the contract and some in June that eventually closed in July at even lower prices so then now we have all of these people the pundits looking at their feet they keep you know the months before July I was on this channel saying folks I'm looking at the data and I'm seeing people dropping prices at negative numbers against last year so I was reporting back over the past 30 to 45 days I warned everybody I said you know what I'm seeing them bring Homes at lower numbers against last year this can only precipitate to what a falling price and again you have to look at the headlines it it's it's good news this is just healing this is just healing uh fascinating okay we have a Marketplace that for the first time ever when it's seasonally the most aggressive time to buy a home where Mark year after year you could settle watch to it you do not see prices do anything other than grow at this particular time of year yet it doesn't look at this now we have red fin reports this week America's renter population is growing 3 to one to home purchasers and by the way you have this the number rate of households in America is now growing 2% year-over-year in the second quarter to a record 45 million you have a record number of people opting out of home ownership because they can't afford it now why let's not lose sight of a bunch of other crazy narratives hitting the market right now in the last two months mind you what you're reading right now on the screen full list of major companies slashing staff this year from Tesla Lucid Motors Google Intel Intel just put a root awaken in the economy saying they're eyeing for billions in government grants this this was the supposed to be the poster child for Semiconductor activity and all this stuff from the White House and they wanted this to grow in our economy and I hey it's appreciate the noble effort there but surprise the economy is not allowing Intel to keep a big chunk of their Workforce laying off 15,000 now mind you this is following many many many other companies reporting 10 to 20% Workforce reduction and as I can tell you I don't have the article for you on screen but we have recent data showing that job openings are down job postings are way down and they've been falling for the last 6 months what does that tell us these people aren't getting rehired many of them will not find a job for a very long time okay so what happens their house hits the market what else do we know buyers aren't buying they're becoming renters at greater numbers and we know because we have to keep an eye on this in Florida because look what's happening redin reports that even now and you got to understand according to the D showed you this is going to get worse what you're about to read redin reports 65% of homel lessings have been sitting on the market for longer than a month which is up from 60% now this is a national narrative you have to understand that the top metros in the country where you're seeing massive bucking of the trend even longer time frames bigger chunks of the market sitting out there for months and sellers expecting to drop the house on the market and no longer sells that fast you have Dallas 63% of listing the market uh for at least 30 days that's up from 52% that's the biggest uptick in all us metros the rest of the largest upticks in metros were these they're in Florida surprise so in Tampa you have 70% of all homes on the market in June have been listed for 30 days what that's a that's a massive amount seven in 10 homes in Tampa that means a whole lot of people list a home it just sits there okay and that's up 60% fort waterdale is 77% which is up from 68% a year ago Jacksonville is up 70% homes sitting there for over 30 days that's up 61% and now Orlando is in the mix Orlando by the way is out of the four major metros we're going to talk about today Orlando is the one that gets the most gushing reviews we're ahead of the other total four of the marketplace if you look at zillow's indexing of Miami Jacksonville and Tampa they're declaring those three markets to be full fully in a buyer's market unsold inventory is to a degree where buyers have total control of those markets Orlando by the way is listed as neutral but the more I look you're seeing more data points starting to shift even here in the marketplace of orlandoo so what I'm going to do I'm going to move from from Miami South Jacksonville we're going to cover Orlando we're going to cover Tampa I'm going to cover the most recent data I'm going to give you a very clear understanding of what's going on in these markets right now un fettered with nonsense you're going to see the date on the screen if you're buying a home in these marketplaces you need to pay attention to this update if you own here now you obviously have the same concerns you want to know how your future of your Marketplace is going so by the way this data is from the Florida Association of realtorss this is the backend most detailed analysis I can give you on the left side of all the charts I'm going to really try and keep this showing you present data all the way back to uh January of 2015 I'm eventually going to put chapters on this channel so on this particular video so you can move ahead move back and please give me Grace as this is live streamed I'm going to talk about four markets back toback with little forgiveness and I'm bound to make a mistake so live stream that's the way it goes it's unedited all right so let's take a look the first data chart that I'm showing you is new listings okay we're going to start with new listings and move our way around look at this you can see in the history of Miami which by the way I am showing all property Types on this chart some people type in in the comments D don't show condos we have to Miami's got 65% of Market in condos if we just show Single family it doesn't make sense but take a look at this you can see in the history of Miami it runs around 125 in new listing volume every single year it has troughs down around 10 and it has gains where High ends marks where just inside of 15,000 you can see that it's barely at 10 so look at this for the since interest rates started Rising people in Miami have been red putting their listings out at lesser levels so you can see all this barely at 10,000 units going to the market going back into late 2023 CU here's where the interest rate started to rise interest rat started to rise these wealthy all cash owner people in this Marketplace did not put their hous on the market this was a probably a a decision made like Hey we're going to cut things back but look what's happening now so now you can see it jumped so January of 2024 it became elevated against prior and it has stayed that way ever since okay now ultimately that doesn't matter as long as they're selling so let's take a look at pending volume pending volume is here that's not good so look at this you have elevated amount of new listings coming to the market but look at your your volume of homes going under contract look since January so January member Miami Marketplace elevated listing volume has the pen endings this is your supply this is your I shouldn't say Supply it's your demand it's your buyer activity putting homes in our contract look at this down almost 12% down 12 March down almost 8 April down 10.6 May down 13.4 there is not been a single month this year where you've had the tide change for people in this particular market now what is that going to do to closings well you're going to see closings down let's jump to that and again look at the volume of activity in Miami Market okay like clockwork you can see it it goes from 6,000 units up to about 9,000 units every year it operates in here then we have the pandemic it spikes and then look at the volume change so your closing volume is actually participating like 2,000 units down so the high is down two almost 2,000 units and the trough is down 2,000 years so Miami is not closing as much okay and again we all know previous to January of 2024 that necessarily was not a big problem and the reason why is because you didn't have a whole lot of listings hting the market in 2023 so when the interest rates started to rise the people got wise and stopped putting their house on the market but that's changing let's look at Cash sales look at your cash sales in the Miami Market you can see that they really kind of floated in here it doesn't look terribly down but look let's just look at year to date you have 23% negative in June that's crazy that's a big so that number is felt because when your interest rates are high it isn't your Finance buyers it's not your your people getting financing getting loans that are holding your market up these are your buyers this is the buyers that Miami needs down 23 so participation down 24% in June down 8% in May up okay so had a positive up 9% but they're down 17.3% down 1.8 so on aggregate you average all that together Miami's cash buyers for whatever reason are saying I'm out of the market and ultimately what is that going to affect well you know let's take a look at Dollar volume let's look at the total number of math of all sales in Miami is it dropping is it down okay well not necessarily okay and this for Miami is probably a luxury Market statistic right they're up 10% in January up 9.9 in February up down 4.1 up 23 up five down seven so the good news for Miami have a feeling we're not going to see this in all their markets that the Consolidated total number of volume moved off the market seems to be doing okay so as a result let's take a look at active inventory how is supply of homes doing in this market well you can see it's been going straight up since July okay so the volume in this Marketplace has just been going you can see where January it just elevated straight up for a couple months because you had all that inventory in the market but buyers will pulled back and again look at look at the history again we have to keep everything in perspective how is Miami doing versus its running history you can see back here that it used to run just shy of 50,000 homes on the market right now it's about 40,000 homes but I have to tell you my friends that can be a problem when you don't have buyers so let's take a look at the great equalizer which is months of Supply months of supply of inventory tells you how fast or how what kind of shape your Market's in when this goes up I don't care how many active homes you have against history if this goes out of control you start seeing this Elevate up to here you're going to see a lot of price reductions in Miami okay so look at the history in Miami months of Supply is they're used to running six months for condo plus single family look at how fast it's gone up it is up 80% year-over year 6.3% so right now it's approaching its normal history okay so right now you're going to have a moment in time where those of you in Miami are going to sit there and feel the Comforts of your history you will say wow it doesn't feel like 2021 anymore for sure it feels kind of like it did in 2018 and and unfortunately I have a feeling based on all this Market data I just showed you that this Marketplace is going to wave goodbye to that metric it's going to wave goodbye to its historic running statistical number for months of supply and it's going to go straight through the roof and we know that because your new listings are not slowing down and your pending volume is not picking up your cash buyers are backing away and all that's precipitating some some weird news for Florida okay all right let's take a look at Jacksonville Jacksonville you can see runs its history really right around 3,800 on the top end for new listings this is how much listing supplies come to the market again just like look at look what happened same story as Miami fell off whenever the interest rates go up your Jacksonville buyers or or or sellers rather got smart said hey we don't know what's going on we're going to back away from this they Jacksonville pumped up the listing volume somewhat but it was very anemic last year but look at it this year just for whatever reason this is the story across Florida this is why every all the news outlets are carrying it they love to talk about it look at the volume of new listings going back January up 12% up 35% up 133% up 30% up 20% so on so forth you can see that the number is pushing higher now let's look at pendings are buyers backing away or buying okay it's a little better than last year because last year was terrible for Jacksonville you can see the normal trajectory of this Marketplace Peaks around 5,500 or so sorry Peaks about 4,500 units stays in 35 to 4500 range it started to even drop before the pandemic but you can see it's it's definitely been a lot slower um in history it is doing a little better than last year and that's good news for the market here let's take a look at closed Sal sales how are closed sales doing in the face of you know what looks to be a little bit higher pending volume so but again look at the sales are still off I didn't pull it up here but one of the things I will mention cancellations were off the charts for Florida Florida in June had National level buyers just quitting the sales so even if your pendings were up look what's look what's happening it's not F it's not actually completing a sale so pendings don't necessarily mean closed sales okay take a look at this so June was down almost 9% in closed sales down 2.6 up in April by almost five down 11 down 1 n down 84 so again sales a little anemic against history um and that becomes a problem for the rest of the marketplace let's take a look at Cash sales are there any cash sales in Jacksonville there is a luxury Market in Jacksonville believe it or not look at this you can see it looks like it's it's spot on history you know it looks like you know this is how much cash inventory you run but it looks like you're running against last year so last year your cash buyers are not there and ultimately that's not good because we have elevated interest rates and that becomes a problem for this Market let's look at median sale price in Jacksonville median sale price take a look at this median sale price up three up four up seven up nine up eight so it is it's higher you know and again it looks it looks like it's flattening a bit in the last couple months we'll have to see where that takes off let me let me pull myam cuz I don't think I pulled median did I I mean I expected up yeah it is up then I definitely did not pull this chart but you have n up nine up 11 up 13 up 11 up eight up eight so elevated price and median okay you say well Jared that doesn't that doesn't make sense you know in the National scheme of things well this is the past so understand you know for for these types of numbers these are those sale prices are produced from the sales activity from 2 to 3 months ago the stuff that you're seeing hit the news now means that this stuff is going to be changing and I've been giving you the leading indicators to kind of prove that out but cash sales we talked about let's talk about the active inventory in Jacksonville let's see do we pull I think we pulled active inventory early on I just want to double check yeah no we didn't pull active inventory yet look at this so regardless of somewhat better-looking pendings the supply of new listing still pushing the number high and again look you can see Jacksonville is at 9800 and you go back this is the peak okay so this will be the interesting thing if Jacksonville keeps dotting lines above history that's where it starts to look like the gulf cities Jacksonville is going to start to look like the data you see in Cape Coral the data you see in Northport Brandon arizota Naples starting to look that way too all right the the real tricky part in some of these markets is we're seeing a lot of data particularly for Florida that's saying that what's holding up the markets is the luxury right so when you have some of these markets like Jacksonville is really well known for Florida on the big four as being the major Market that's the most affordable and so look what's happening Jacksonville has the highest month of Supply again month of Supply is how slow your Market feels it's a consideration of if you stop listing homes how long would it take to sell them all off you can go back all the way to somewhere around October of 2015 Barack Obama days is when you will find similar uh amount of Supply 53.6% 577 so we're you know Jacksonville is increasing for the last six months very aggressively and that's not a great sign all right we're going to jump to Orlando Orlando don't cheat don't look I'm typing I'm moving I'm moving it I'm going to change the data we're going to start over with new listings just like we did on the other markets and don't click out because we're going to cover Tampa and Tampa is basically a storm it's going sideways and it looks crazy so that's why I do it last sorry Tampa that's what's happening look at this all right so we are now in the Orlando data let me pull just single cuz now we're going to Orlando it's not a coastal town There's not as much Town town homes and condos I really don't put that in the data all right so here we go single family new listings new new listings look at them shooting off the chart and again they're not high as history but neither is your buyer volume so here we are we're up 7% in listings year over year in June 17 up 23 up this is the interesting thing is I remember going on listing appointments between March and April and we didn't feel as different as we do now like Orlando feels much different and the data for Orlando really kind of is exemplary of the other markets so I'd be curious if your realtor watching this drop down the comments tell me what you've noticed in terms of the vibe in the marketplace between earlier this year end of spring till now like the vibe of hey maybe we can test High into the price range maybe we have a shot at getting that number and then all of a sudden the market like to me like you would get shut down in some of these marketplaces let's go to pendings all right pendings in Orlando is not good it's just on a decline in in moving season look at it's just pitching downward and obviously that's posting negative numbers so this year in Orlando buyers are opting out even now even now even now we're having news headlines say it's a four-month low for buyers in terms of their home cost they can get a payment now that's that's lower than it's been in four months because the interest rates are down and buyers are still backing away so look at this -6.9 15.2 136 -2 so on and so forth let's look at closings let's see how closings are holding up with all this boom closings down 13 down 4.8 down 3.8 down 93 sorry I said down in April they're actually up 3.8 posted a positive in this is it this is it I mean this is what I felt I mean I felt you know the beginning of the year we were posting ahead of last year which again last year was very soft sales and now it's getting worse the Gap is narrowing it's it's should say the gap's widening the gap between this year and last year was a 14% in last month buyers out let's look at Cash sales cash sales in the Orlando market is a key part we have a lot of international buyers here we have a lot of investment buyers here and you can see it's been a steady Trend June grew look at this notice our clo when our close sales goes down look how big our cash sales go down the same month so our Clos sales were off 14% we were down - 22.6% almost 23% in our cash buyers for that month very very low look at that 525 units of cash buyers for greater Orlando you're talking four counties wow okay down nine down eight down 10 okay so we're seeing cash buyer activity shifting just a little bit um let's look at our dollar volume because we're supposedly a balanced neutral Market here in Orlando we should still see some decent dollar volume posting and it we've had some even numbers you can see we're clipping with last year and yeah you're looking back here going Jared you're you're selling weight way more homes than in history yeah we built a bazillion homes since here the population the amount of units housing units to trade to transfer back in this place is much more Orlando is is not short on Supply again you have to take that in consideration because the data we're looking at right here is not including a massive amount of new construction activity that we see in our Marketplace let's look at median sale price in Orlando so we're going to look at median sale price we're going to look at the inventory levels and we're going to look at median or the monthly Supply flattening right you can see it's just kind of like 3 months in a row almost declining I mean it looks down from here just because the rate of appreciation is starting to settle so look so so look at Orlando Orlando three months ago we were ahead of last year by 6% in May we're ahead by 3.4% and last month we were only ahead by 2% which is why this looks like a sliding negative it's not it's still positive it's over last year but it is changing shape okay don't like to admit it we just have to open our eyes and look at the data and this is why Supply is climbing so Supply is going vertical we're up 62.7% we were up 65 last month you can see the numbers are just getting bigger they stabilized May to June but look look where they were in January in December they're up 10% year-over-year in December they were up 18% January up 30 up 34 up 53 up 65 this and this is represents the feel in the market the competition levels is changing because the amount of inventory listings are growing and they're not selling they become a competitor to your house on the market let's look at months of Supply this is ultimately the key wow 3.5 as a number by itself means if you stop listing homes in Orlando it take you three and a half months to sell every single one without the fact that we're adding more unsold homes every month 3.5 represents the highest number going back to the beginning of this chart we have seen that number since sometime in August uh end of 2015 and look where it's going it's going vertical okay the higher this goes it precipitates longer down Market times it precipitates more anxious sellers they will start jocking for Price structions which is what we tell our sellers we're trying to encourage our sellers in this Marketplace that Hey listen these Trends are going in One Direction and they mean something to us that that you know if if if this doesn't change anytime soon if we don't startop stop seeing headlines like this then you're going to see more inventory because these people lose their jobs they put their house in the market you have more competition which precipitates a more difficult market for home sellers okay so that's the key all right let's jump to our last market and we be done and on to the weekend let's look at this Jack did I did I do Orlando I did forgive me they're all blurring together all right let's go to Tampa we're going to start and Tampa with new listings just like I did with the others let's not break stride by the way do you all mind if I put condos in here as well because Tampa has a little bit more than good bit more than Orlando let's let's include everything all right so let's take a look new listing volume is up big since January up 17 up 30 in February had a big jump up 14 up 27 you've had double digit new listing volume except for June in June Maybe the sellers are seeing enough news they're like we are pulling back let's take a look at just single family they hook you all up look at single family single family lines up with these numbers in fact April had even a little bit more than 30% 32 32% of the mix was actually from single family okay all right let's take a look at pendings how are these new listings how's the buyer volume in Tampa right now it's negative all six months of the year down eight down 10 down 7even down 11 down 14 almost 15 down n and a half and so this is precipitating a very big shift in Market noise for Tampa okay because it is well down pinning inventory is well down look at your volume in the past it just cycled right to 10,000 every single month you didn't you you missed 8,000 this summer this spring so this is moving season every year goes up to here this is buyers buying houses this again points to people electing to rent in Tampa there's more multif family here throughout Central Florida there's more Apartments opening up there's now falling rents being reported even with these people not buying homes okay let's move on pendings we're going to go to closed sales next close sales let's take a look oh by the way let me flip all right closed sales it looks like a nose dived in June holy cow so it's down 15% in June over prior year break even in May little up in April down again in March down again and Fab down so this is again this is no.0 this is just more of the same less buyers less closings less activity I have a feeling we're going to see active inventory shooting through the roof but let's take a look at closings I'm sorry we just looked at closing let's take a look at Cash sales cash sales cash sales nose dived look at this same amount of cash sales that were down you had same percentage of closings down okay so kind of lined up and I've been saying that through this video but look you've only had one or two months one month where it was up we'll call that even but most of the months in cash sales are not driving numbers that the this Market needs by the way the biggest shifting luxury market in terms of inventory for like the the normal luxury house in Florida and across the US really is around 1.6 mil um you're seeing luxury starting to stack up in Tampa so Tampa I think's up like 70 80% in their luxury volume let's look at uh dollar volume volum how is the total Math again because obviously luxury can move these numbers somewhat okay you can see a big number was put up last month which may was positive at 2.9 billion total volume sold which is good um but then it fell the next month you can see there's a couple positive months total dollar volume again a lot of this is represent like Jared how how does sales how are sales down but dollar volume's up this is what we keep seeing we keep seeing that the marketplace is overall impacted by a lot of just a a number of luxury you know like you you have big number listings selling that are you know two three four five million homes that helps your volume but look at this oh my gosh this is active inventory in Tampa my friends it is sponsored by space it is going to the Moon 18,300 units this is a number that you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the chart okay now mind you you say Jared why is that going down and why does it stabilize here this is most likely the recovering inventory levels from the last GFC so you if you if I were to expand this the way back youd probably see either a big bump right here or this is just a longstanding come down from what might have been 50 or 60,000 homes that they had on the market back then it just kept coming down and obviously you can see this is kind ofip eclipsing over the history of this market look at the numbers June's up 83% kind of like Orlando it went from 84 to 83 again summer might have helped it out but look at that so you're going into the fall slowest time of year 83% 84% 76% 50 it was just 2% year-over-year in September look how fast the number has just exploded year-over Year big big change let me go to median sell price cuz I think I missed it I us like to hit that before now let's go up median sale price for Tampa take a look at this still still growing so it's really flat like 2.9 3.6 2.7 so not in increasing in terms of history but we'll have to see how it goes because you're going to have a lot of markets you know I have to believe that some of this is moved by the high number of highend sales that are experienced in this particular Market but it'll be interesting to see it is still above positive we'll see what happens with July when we have a national number in July showing down let's look at months of Supply months of Supply again also we expect this to be very high 3.9 is the number that this Market never sees okay so the vibe in Tampa usually it does not take four months this is why you have marketplaces particularly like economists at Zillow things that saying that Tampa is in a buyer Market because this is one of the highest months of Supply it's ever put up but that's it that's it let's take a look let me show you one more graph do I have that for you no I don't that's it for today U thanks for watching want to hear your perspective jump in the comments if you've listened this far smash the thumbs up mean a lot to me it help out this video and share this if you're an agent or if you're a homeowner in Florida and you want to help others know what's going on across the Florida marketplace you can see I went down the line I didn't shade anything one way or another but let me know as well in the comments what video you want to see next or what Market place that you want to see me cover thanks for watching we'll see you on the next one