Blood in the Water!!! Nvidia MISS??

hi folks Dan bird here on Wednesday Nvidia day after the market close it's uh 4:41 East Coast time right now so I want to take a look at Nvidia and see what it's doing right now let me see first off I was out of town last week for those that were asking thank you very much and Mr Zuber is out of the country I believe for the next couple of weeks so I'll do this one solo probably do one Sunday solo as well not exactly sure when he's coming back but um probably week after next all right so where are we it looks like I'm looking up it's because my monitor is up there um right now Nvidia after hours is down 2 and a half% it's been bouncing around between down two and a half down five um let me first I'm going to share my screen and show you what the numbers look like for NVIDIA for those that are interested this is my website breakpoint trading.net and a free newsletter is right here in this little box um you can see IBD is saying marketing confirmed uptrend so things have been moving higher however pull back a little bit I'll talk about that in a minute um um so let's take a look at Nvidia so this is from um this is from Seeking Alpha said shares fell 4 and a half% after hours third quarter expects to generate 30 32.5 billion in Revenue plus or minus 2% analysts were forecasting 31.7 so the um guidance looks good slightly higher than expected uh they they did 68 cents per share and the expectation was 64 and they did 28 the expectation was 28 billion in revenue and they did um actually let me do it over here s's a little better this is CNBC so 68% adjusted versus 64% expected 30 billion versus 28 billion expected expected 32.5 billion in the current quarter versus 31 expected so they beat on all counts not significant huge beats but they did beat um right now they are down about 3% After Hours the conference call starts at five um we'll see what what what it does uh if we're still on which we probably will be in 15 minutes the other ones of note here on Seeking Alpha is and I tell you what they're they look like after hours as well AMD is down 1% TSM Taiwan semi down a little less than 1% avgo which reports I think tomorrow down about 1% so not huge changes qualcom down a little less than 1% so really not not too much changed uh Nvidia down right now 3% after hour so not a huge change but not a huge gap up like a lot of people were expecting either so far we'll see what happens tomorrow we'll see what happens after the conference call it's not so much what the earnings are It's the reaction to the ear earnings that are important and we're not really going to get that until tomorrow morning when the Market opens we'll see what happens just for your information uh here's my Nvidia chart and right now Nvidia is right about 121 so right here just about at the 21 day is 121 day is at 12122 and Nvidia is at 12161 right now so it's sitting right on this 50 12066 on the 50 days so sitting right on the 50 and 21 so that's actually a pretty good place to be if it stays there because it could actually take off from there um I had mentioned to to one of one subscriber that the market and a lot of stocks right now look kind of like this they're sitting right above support levels they're sitting right below breakout levels so they're right at the point of either breaking out or breaking down one of the two um don't know which way it's going to go but um there are some things that I'm concerned about a little bit in the market right now so let's take a look at them um by the way smci another AI stock got hammered today I'll see what they're doing after hours just out of curiosity also smci after hours down two and a half percent uh after being down almost 20% during the market so there's there's what it looks like right now after hours it's at 4:32 so it closed at 4:43 so it's down another uh $111 After Hours the low for the day was 395 so it's still above the low but smci is getting hammered hammered more than more so than most of the other chip stocks or the AI stocks actually so one other comment that a subscriber sent me a note and it was very astute of him he said you know looking at your mark Market bias Matrix which is right on the website and this is basically this is updated every day it's been already updated for today this looks at all the indexes the sectors the industry groups intermarket relationships Commodities metals and currencies and then it combines all those together to show a short-term medium-term and long-term bias and all you really have to do is just look at this chart right here so you can see right here in um back in July is when the market started selling off and it just continued to go lower and then we started to bounce right here and that bounce continued and now we're kind of going sideways actually starting to go down a little bit the orange line down here is the shortterm the gray one is the medium-term and the yellow is the long term you can see the longterm has been slowly trending down shortterm is the one that moves soonest and it moved up and now it's starting to roll over shortterm is trying to catch up but it could be rolling over too but the question was looking at this Matrix bias and all you really have to do is look at the ones that are highlighted because that those are the ones that change today so you can see the ones there are three red ones today there are no green ones changed today um but more importantly up here in all the indexes everything is pretty much green in the short-term bias sectors are green Industry Group groups are green but when we get down here to intermarket relationships these are all red in fact these all just changed to Red in the short-term basis within the last few days so his comment was is this an area of concern if the relative charts are rolling over and becoming bearish while the market is going higher is that a concern and I said absolutely that's a concern that's that's what happened in 2020 the end of the year when the market was hitting all-time highs and the intermarket relationships were rolling over right in the midst of the market hitting all-time highs now you can look at these just by clicking on these charts over here or you can go to you can actually download this spreadsheet and click on the individual ones right in the spreadsheet if you want to look at this get a better view of it it's a little hard to read here but you can click on them right here as well so what I said was the import ones to look at is discretionary versus Staples so that's aggressive versus defensive um the cu's versus the Spy again aggressive versus defensive growth versus value is really important and then the large cap medium midcap and small cap growth versus value you can see all of these are both short-term and long-term red right now and some are even I mean medium-term red some are even long-term red so if we look at discretionary versus Staples what you'll see in most of these charts is they they tried to recover and move up so this means that discretionary was outperforming Staples through this period until July and I had said many times before beware the July high so there's the July high and then if this is moving lower like it is that means value or rather in this case Staples is outperforming discretionary so that's not a good sign we look at the q's versus the S&P same thing here's the July high and since then the S&P has been outperforming the NASDAQ if we look at growth versus value right here same thing here's the July high and ever since then in this case if this is going down that means value is outperforming growth had a little bounce right here and then it's continuing to go lower if we look at large cap growth versus value looks very similar July high now value is outperforming growth we look at the midcap growth versus value now this the midcap it's been pretty much value outperforming all the way since back in February with a little bit of a a balance right here in June but pretty much most of the Year midcap growth has been underperforming value so value really is been the leader and then small cap right here same thing for most of the Year small cap value stocks are outperforming growth stocks so that is a not a good thing the other thing I mentioned to look at is look at the sectors too and the way this is organized the first three sectors are the aggressive sectors and the second three sectors are the defensive sectors so if you want to see if if money is rotating and that's what's going on right now money is rotating out of technology and even with Nvidia and I'll continue to check Nvidia as we're going along right now it's down almost 5% so down to 11978 right now so now it's down almost 5% but um money is rotating out of the Magnificent 7 magnificent 7 versus the Russell 2000 right down here it's another one to look at you can see here's the July High magnificent 7 has now been underperforming the Russell 2000 or small and midcaps so again money is rotating out of large caps and into small caps so the other thing I said was take a look at the sectors we look at the the three defensive sectors first we'll look at Staples I showed you before how discretionary versus Staples in other words is discretionary outperforming Staples or is it underperforming Staples now it's just the Staples sector and you can see it has been just going higher pretty much all year so this is a defensive area money is rotating out of aggressive and into defensive if we look at utilities which is the the most defensive sector again just moving higher we look at uh Health Care also a defensive area also moving higher so those three are moving higher but are the aggressive sectors moving lower so let's take a look well there's technology technology had been moving higher as well until that July high and now technology is starting to move lower but it actually had been doing pretty well along with the defensive sectors that means there was breath um in the market and there was rotation starting in July but the other defensive sectors are are uh basically taking over all all that all of that um liquidity that's coming out of the aggressive sectors is moving into the defensive sectors we can look at communication Services it's it's looking pretty good it actually hit a double top right there so it might be pulling back this is where the internet stocks are and then finally discretionary looks kind of the same as technology hit the July High pull back but even through this pullback right here so we'll compare discretionary to staple so remember this pullback right here in July down to the beginning of August and if we look at Staples we don't see any of that we just see consistently heading higher so all that money that's coming out of technology and the aggressive sectors are rotating into the other areas and if we look at we'll look at the other ones there's energy um here's materials trying to get through that triple basically triple top now um that's where gold is Industrials hitting new a new high right now and financials also hitting a new high so we we'll have to see if the this continues hopefully the rotation will continue which what that means is the market May correct and I've been saying that the period in September is the worst of the worst month of the year I showed that before but I can show it again um using the seasonality so I'll look at um let's look at NASDAQ 100 so you can see right here seasonality in five years September is negative over five years for the NASDAQ 100 and if we move this out to 10 years you can see right there September is the worst month of the year we go out to 20 years still uh now February actually is worse than September but September is still pretty far down there so 10 years is a clearly shows you that September is the worst month and if we look at all years combined this is where we are up here this red line and so this is all the past years there's 23 22 21 Etc uh 2 actually is the green one so 22 was the cyclical bare Market you can see it it actually went lower than 21 but in all cases look at the September and October periods here's September to October last year September to October September to October and just about every case except for this one 2019 was higher and this one here is 2017 was higher but in most of the other cases and this is 2015 so if we look at September right here most of the other cases the September October period is the worst of the Year having said that there are some catalysts that might help um avoid some of that and one of those catalysts is CPI number and what you'll notice with CPI is that when we got the the better than expected CPI in July small caps and midcaps really benefited and took off financials took off off as a result of that so if we look at the CPI chart over here what you can see is the CPI number that comes out in September in a couple of weeks is a huge one that will drop off that is going to help CPI CPI came in at 2.9 the last time in August I think it could easily come in at 2.7 maybe even better than that and then the one this so this is the one that will be reported in September and this is the one that will be reported in October so in October we're going to get another big one that drops off and CPI could be 2.5% in uh October then we have the the unemployment report that's due out next week look at claims claims actually came down a little bit so that's going to help the unemployment report I think we're probably going to get a flat unemployment report so it's not going to Gap up this is the S rule right here so for September um 4.2 is the target 4.3 is what we had I think we're going to come in around 43 maybe even 42 maybe even come down a little bit so that's going to be good for the FED that will be good for the market the CPI will be good for the fed and for the market so the FED I think will definitely cut in September probably 25 basis points I don't think there's any reason for them to try to go 50 basis points but in general the market likes to go down in September there are some things that will help it potentially stabilize I don't think it's going to crash I think it might go down and then come back and I think middle of October until the end of the year it's going to continue higher like it typically does during an election year so I think that's what's going to happen now if we go back and look at the trend models and I'll look at the Magnificent 7 Trend models because those are the ones that are the most interesting and by the way um Nvidia is down 4% right now so conference calls should be starting right now we'll see what H see what happens if uh things change at all right now down exactly 4% um so as you can see Amazon just gave a short-term down signal yesterday and Tesla also gave a short-term down while Nvidia gave a a midterm up so anything that's highlighted here just changed this week so the way the trend model works is it's a short-term medium-term and longterm so it's when the five crosses the 21 the 21 crosses the 50 is a medium term and the 50 crosses the 200 is is the long term and you can zoom in and get a a more detail view like that and actually the arrows indicate where the close has gone above or below the 21-day moving average 21-day to me is the reversion to the mean and I'll show you why I say that if we go back to the charts page all the way at the bottom left you'll see the the um Kelner channels this this is basically I'll look at the NASDAQ 100 again this basically the The Dark One in the middle is one ATR one average true range so the r range that the NASDAQ 100 trades in typically in one day that's the average range that it trades in the dark little bit lighter green is two times the average range and the lightest one is three times the average range and you'll notice when it gets up to four times outside of the lightest one it doesn't stay there very long and usually it reverts to the mean and the mean in this case is the 21-day moving average so there's a reversion to the mean and in this case it went through it and then reversion to the mean back to the upside went through it came up here almost to the 3x and now we're reverting to the mean again so that's the reason that I use the 21 day as the reversion to the mean so this is Google Google um you can see it's in the red zone right here the macd is below zero so that that confirms a downtrend Google right now is in a downtrend um it gave a preliminary early signal right here went went above the 21 briefly and then went right back below it right here so it might be heading back lower and look at these in context with the Nvidia earnings today um down right now still 4% so not much change yet here's Amazon Amazon again briefly went above the 21 and then went right back below it so and it's accelerating now to the downside and it is below the zero line up here so confirm downtrend on Amazon Apple uh now apple is above zero up here so apple is in a in a confirmed uptrend it's in the green zone and here's the early signal right here so you could have got in on Apple right there here's Meta Meta uh gave a gave a preliminary up signal and has not yet closed below the 21 but it's very close that could happen tomorrow actually so we'll keep an eye on that looks like it's starting to move lower Microsoft gave a early signal down signal right there and it the macd is below zero so it is still a confirmed downtrend even though the lines here are crossed and the histogram went above zero up here the line here for the macd did not go above zero so it's still in a confirmed downtrend this just means that it is a uh rally in a downtrend so you have to be careful when when stocks rally like this sometimes you might think that it's starting to head higher and it might be but you want to see it get above the zero line up here there's Nvidia so Nvidia right now is confirmed uptrend it is a it is above the 21 Day 21 day is at 12122 and after hours Nvidia is at 120 so right now it's down 4 and a half% so inid could uh give a preliminary down signal tomorrow if it closes below that 21 day we'll see what happens here's Tesla Tesla you know G gave an up down up down in Rapid success succession but it never went above the zero line up here so still in the confirmed downtrend and now it it gave a preliminary downtrend as well so not a good look for Tesla Netflix was actually going really well and it's in a confirm uptrend and it has not come below it's 21 so Netflix right now is still looking positive AMD so I'm going to talk about AMD a little bit here this is one that I actually got in and I this is one that I like to watch um I got in here on the first green bar even before it gave the preliminary before it went above the 21 um and then it went up here and today it gave a preliminary down signal still above the zero line but that might change quickly it's out of curiosity I'll look at AMD right now it's down 2% uh 1.4% sorry down to 144 so AMD is going to continue to go lower uh Nvidia is down four and a half percent right now so AMD is heading down I I got in on the first green bar right here and I got it got out on this green bar right here and let me show you why so if I look at the this with a actual candle notice that candle right there in fact let me turn on my so look at this candle right there that is a shooting star that is a textbook shooting star dogee what that means is the the price was moving up really nicely and it moved up right here just almost to that's the 50-day moving average almost to the 50-day and in the same day sold off all the way back down below the 200 day that is not a good candle that is a reversing candle and one thing that I've learned after doing this many times it's right here another one reversing candle right there and what I do now whenever I see something like that I don't wait anymore because not every time but most of the time it's a Prelude to a s off so I got out right there and so I got in around 135 I believe and got out of about 153 so about $20 um about 10,000 think about $10,000 I made in a week or so but whenever I see a candle like that I just get out I don't ask any questions uh even if it takes off it started to go back up the next day but I that candle right there is a reversing candle and it'sit pretty accurate what I found so that's AMD here's smci it's terrible terrible chart for smci you can see it gave a preliminary down signal way back here and went into the Red Zone here now came back above right there but never came above the zero line went briefly above zero right there but not convincingly went back down below and just kind of went sideways through this whole period and then sted selling off again and today was a blood bath for smci let's see what smci is doing right now it's down three and a half perc down $15 after hours Nvidia is down five and a half percent down six $660 it's at 119 right now so it looks like whatever they're saying on the conference call is not helping we'll see what happens tomorrow tomorrow is going to be an interesting day because I think the market was poised to sell off and if in viia didn't blow things away then it may um be the Catalyst to send the market down into September here's Oracle Oracle is just going sideways actually looking pretty good it's about the zero line um here's paler now paler may give a h shortterm an early signal tomorrow if it closes below the 21 Day right here and uh the five still has a few more days before it goes below the 21 but it might be an early signal tomorrow so that's all the Magnificent 7 that's the way to use the trend charts these right here Trend models do the same thing with the indexes on the indexes I also have Bitcoin so Bitcoin was interesting because I couldn't actually update these a lot of times I can update them about 20 minutes before the market closes I couldn't do that today because Bitcoin kept going back and forth and you'll see right here there's Bitcoin Bitcoin just gave a short-term down signal but this is this is where I see it over here you see it the five day is at 894 and the 21 day is 944 but this was bouncing back and forth right up right up until the close so I had to wait for the close to make sure that it actually did go below the the uh 21 day which it did right there so Bitcoin just gave a short-term down signal um if you want to look at Bitcoin on and a zoom out view that's the long-term Trend you could have got in back here in March of 23 and it's still in the green the it's starting to bounce around you know start getting some crosses right here which is going to eventually pull this green one down but right now it's not so right now and this is getting ready to cross over too but right at the moment it is still in a long very long-term uptrend uh so that's it let's see we'll look at Nvidia one more time down about 5% so it looks like it's not moving significantly more based on the u based on the conference call so maybe uh that'll be it maybe I don't know what'll happen tomorrow a lot of people I think were in Nvidia hoping for a blowout number and then it would just take off and GAP up doesn't look to me like that's going to happen um down a little less than 5% right now so we'll see how it does up until the open and that'll be the real uh key is how it opens in the morning and I think um there's other ones that are that are coming up like um broadcom reports in fact right on the website right here you want to see the other earnings that are coming out if we look at the NASDAQ 100 good crowd strike actually let's see what crowd strike did after the close crowd strike is up 4% so they must have had good earnings it's up to 275 um so that's communication Services let's look at the NASDAQ 100 again so here's Nvidia Autodesk Marvel reporting tomorrow after the close zscaler on the 3 and broadcom is on the fifth so that'll be next week after the close so those are the ones coming up uh Micron also coming up next week so those are all U important ones for semiconductors in particular and if we look at semiconductors on the charts page you can see all of the um industry groups over here these I update these at every week the end of the week these are the top 10 and bottom 10 for the week you can see semiconductors was the bottom 10 for last week just starting to roll over right there and software 2 was in the bottom 10 last week also just beginning to roll over so we'll see if that continues but that's one way that you can just check some of some of your favorite industry groups see what they're doing you want to look at um my mining for instance right there mining seems like it's recovering coming off the bottom so gold might continue to take off and we can we can look at gold actually on the U Market bias Matrix down at the bottom under currencies or actually under Metals gold is right there so there's gold gold uh still doing really well continuing to move higher and gold miners also looks very similar to gold and silver silver uh is not hitting new highs so it's in a little bit of a downtrend right now so silver might be the lagger of all of those and in fact I actually have a chart in here that shows Gold Silver and copper and Bitcoin all together so here's gold silver copper US dollar and Bitcoin up there this is a performance chart so they all start at zero back here it's a one-year chart so all of these starting at zero one year ago this is how they performed Bitcoin actually underperformed all of these and then it took off so right now it's significantly outperforming by about 23% of performance so that's what it looks like all right thanks everyone for uh listening uh I probably will do a um one on Sunday solo because Z won't be around leave me some comments on the on this one let me know if there's anything you want me to look at between now and Sunday if there are any particular charts or any particular stocks just put them in uh in the chat down below and I will make a note of those and I'll actually go through each of those on Sunday uh one last check on Nvidia right now down almost 6% it's down to 118 right now so it looks like it's continuing to fall um so that's not a good sign maybe it's some of the Q&A probably they're probably just starting the Q&A right now actually it's 5:15 on the East Coast all right that's it thanks everyone appreciate you tuning in and listening sorry I missed last Sunday but um let me know what you'd like me to look at for this coming Sunday thanks a lot and I'll talk to you soon take care