Does Warren Buffett see Stock Market CRASH???

something I have been waiting to ask Taylor from Life goal Investments is about our good friend his his neighbor Mr Warren Buffett of course I joke I tease but yes folks it looks like Warren Buffett sold 49% of his Apple steak is this a call on Apple is this a call on the economy is this Uncle Warren just creating a monster War chest so he can go shopping one more time before he completes his Berkshire ha the way painting I don't know what to me of this but I'm sure Taylor does how you doing buddy oh man this is such an interesting topic thanks for bringing it up it's one of those things where you have to take a step back and go what does Warren look for Warren Buffett is a value investor right and so he looks for Bargain Basement prices to get money to work when there's blood in the street and on the other side when everything is rainbows and sunshine when the cab driver is telling you what to buy he says hey I'm out and he might be wrong for a while and that's the reality he's incredibly patient which is very atypical um but it's also why he's the greatest investor of all time and so he's looking at the market right now and going okay where do I see value I don't that's that's that's yeah and so awesome article out from Barons this weekend that says there's no Alpha in public markets right now and Alpha is just the ability to outperform to provide solid returns and that's their interpretation it doesn't matter whether you look at stocks and I think that's probably where we'll spend the bulk of our time now but also on the bond side it's not to say there's no value there but bond yields have compressed and it's not you know glorious to go out and buy a bond right now that yields 5 per. yeah looks good versus three years ago but I think the real call for him obviously is on the stock side of things because he's a stock investor yeah and so he he sold half of his position in apple and I brought this up a couple times and people said Hey Taylor he's he's doing it for tax purposes by the way the amount of cash he just raised he's got now $250 billion doar something like that sitting on Cas that's not for tax guess what he can't sell Apple today like you can so what he has to do is he has to wait out over time do you think in the meantime he's gonna tell you Apple's a shitty investment right now get out no because he's still got half his stake to unwind right so the reality is he might play a little you know a little headline game there and say hey this is why I'm doing it but the reality is the market is just fully priced yeah I do think that the when I heard that I remember Warren Buffett I remember Warren Buffett in ' 08 or M I think it might have been 2010 when he got Goldman Sachs for 10% plus warrants yep dude it's it's good to be king with the with cash y so I looked at that sale going oh my goodness does he see something on that magnitude I mean it it's hard for me to see but again he was ready he was ready until your point he was patient he was probably out of the market two years yeah just he was being called names like he's lost his touch he's old he should retire and well do you also remember his style of investing looking terrible two years ago where everyone's like Lauren Buffett's old he's lost it this and that now look at it I laugh every time I hear that like yeah I was that guy during the.com crash I will never disrespect Uncle Warren again oh my the reality is so you look at the market right now and it doesn't matter whose forecast so you look at the big firms whether it's JP Morgan whether it's Vanguard whether it's Black Rock they give Capital Market assumptions going forward in the future and so their Capital Market assumptions right now are really Meed say the stock market does 10% per year throughout history over the past 100 years that's roughly what it's done Vanguard right now is expecting the S&P to do 3.4 to 5.4% per year for the next 10 that's pretty darn pessimistic and you know you look at JP Morgan they're a little higher at 7.1% but the reality is when you look back and zoom out over the past 15 years the S&P has done 15% per year if 10's the average it doesn't take a rocket scientist to say at some point pendulum swing back towards the mean that's called reversion and Warren's getting out of the way of that reversion backward and then when it does revert and valuations look cheaper he's gonna step in and buy a boatload again and he's also not buying the broad market right he is Target hunting on the best companies where fundamentals get dislocated the stock looks like it should be doing better than it is but the market hates it that's when he's gonna step in and pounce yeah no he's def one of the things you have to appreciate about Warren is that how patient he is he's he is wedding ready to set up plays and wait years and then when he goes he goes heavy yep right he when he when he turns the guns on he he goes I think one of the things that he's struggling with in the market is something that uh I think is being struggled with broadly and so you look at what's generated the massive returns this year it's been all an AI narrative right and so when you look at narratives on new technologies throughout history whether it's dotc whether it's the railroad system whether it was the lock system before that these new technologies were they come to Market they have an incredible amount of hype behind them the stocks absolutely rocket ship higher and then the market steps back and goes prove it yeah prove it we'll wait yeah right and let me see what profits this is actually going to generate and then typically what happens is the pro it stage stocks come back down that have been magnificently moved by that underlying narrative that's not yet generating the profits and then once it's proven by whatever name is proving it the market will reward it again the other thing that I don't think is being realized in the market is that when you look back at era which is the easiest time for us to look back because it's the most recent of this new technological boom it was AOL it was Yahoo guess what wasn't there per se Amazon right so they were kind of there Google was kind of there but they weren't the incumbents they weren't the de facto winners but guess what the Magnificent Seven right now is the de facto winner it's not to say there aren't new technologies or new AI players that are going to step in and take the rain and run with it but the market doesn't know who they are they don't know where they're coming from and they're not pricing things accordingly which is why Warren Buffett is saying Apple has just had this magnificent leap higher after struggling for the better part of a year not having an AI play then they mentioned AI at their conference stock pops 22% overnight and what are they actually doing no one knows so it's it's one of those things where if it's unknown and a stock valuation is stretched not necessarily something I want to go in Head and Shoulder on and that's what Warren buffin sell the mark right now yeah so again you think this is kind of a combo call about Apple and the economy kind of Warren going hey it's time to time to create even more liquidity I do think so I do think that the long and variable lags are starting to to to to paint the picture of listen when the when the FED goes on these hiking Cycles there's been 13 of them in the modern day era 12 of them have wound up in a recession right so like everyone's calling for soft planning right now and very well it could take place I'm not saying it's impossible but to say that that's the more likely outcome I think is a Fool's errand right or what are the odds I don't know I don't know one out of 13 what that makes eight% something like that ballpark so at the end of the day it's like I don't know that I want to be overextended on that side of things take your Chips spread them out a little bit right now diversify the portfolio don't be hyperfocused on stocks that are incredibly stretched from a valuation perspective I love that I love that Taylor where can people find you because you put out daily content that is much mustat thanks so much yeah find us on Instagram and on Tik Tok lifeo Investments daily 60c synopsis there you go buddy