Tech Sector, DG, NVDA, GME Analysis | Stock Market Recap

what's up outliers got three things for the market update today first we're going to talk about Dollar General then we're going to talk about the tech sector then we're going to talk about GameStop let's get right to it so the first thing is Dollar General had a hell of a day today and as you can tell it closed at the bottom of this candle it just got shoved down all day it tried to Rally a little bit post earnings and its earnings wasn't abysmal but it definitely was wasn't good so we can take a look through what happened this was before the market opened and it dropped over 25% and we can see that it came in at 170 per share which is down from 213 year-over-year and it was expected at 179 net sales came in 1021 10.21 billion which actually expanded that doesn't seem you know too bad to me but this is the big problem so it expects fiscal 2024 EPS of 550 to 620 and sales growth 4.7 to 5.3% which is down so yeah this is one of the things that you'll find with forward guidance is this exact kind of scenario the market was originally expecting it at 712 this obviously is really missing that to the downside unfortunately for them so they are behind the curve here now the other thing I want to take a look at with you is just the indices but specifically Tech because Tech really had a a pretty big problem out here so if we take a look at first the sectors and we can see what's going on here Tech is still this is now in a negative sloping Channel like this is very clearly trending down and we're still seeing relative weakness across quite a few of the sectors but it definitely looks like to me Tech is lead leading us to the downside the S&P 500 is staying a little more resilient trending sideways here but Tech is in the picture that's one of the the biggest things that I see here and if we take a look across the indices we can see that again Q's which is a little more Tech heavy than the others is already moving down towards these moving averages the S&P 500 still has a little bit of room here before it starts rotating over but then we're seeing the Russell actually bucking the trend vix is down curious huh so vix is down Market is down that happens sometimes it's not quite as infrequent as people might think but still interesting to see this slowing amidst the rest of this seeming potential selloff accelerating it's a little too early to tell now quick recap on Nvidia I was curious how it was going to Faire today and it actually fell a little more than I expected earlier in the day was hovering right around 120s that seemed about where it was going to be and then it looked like it was being held up propped up pretty strong actually by people interested in it but they just couldn't hold on and there's a massive sale candle today with over 89% sale volume so people were just unwinding here and I get it it this was a a pretty interesting earnings release because it was so so focused on Nvidia and the impact of the broader market and then the tone for AI all these kinds of things are so topical right now so I totally get it but it's just a little more emotional than I was expecting it seemed like it was hanging in there and then it just kind of broke down the rest of the day so yeah this is interesting to me but something that I think is not unexpected after its earnings because again I was talking about this before the earnings in here needed to be perfect in order for it to continue this kind of parabolic ascent so it doesn't surprise me that we find ourselves in this scenario with Nvidia the way I'm looking at Tech right now is it still to me is very promising long-term but shortterm it looks a little weaker and something that I'm definitely going to be minding my exposure in so now we need to take a look at GameStop because GameStop had a great day today and again it's not like a a huge day but I am so stoked that it started coming into this value area and immediately started rejecting right back out like that was great for me to see I was very very happy with that I still see RSI both raw RSI and the EMA below the 50 handle so I don't love that from just a general strength picture but this was a good day in here and the other thing is we can see the volume really stepped up big time again it's really hard to see because the volume is so skewed by all this noise back here but if you take a look at the volume today was 10.3 million shares with 53% % buy volume and the 20-day average volume is only five and the 5-day average volume is 5.7 so this is two times the average midterm 20-day and short-term volume so there are a lot of people stepping out here that really liked it at this point so that that was sick I was really really happy with that and again we do have earnings coming up in here come the 10th after the market closes so now the other thing is I took a look through just the options flow for both GameStop and chewy to see if anything stuck out to me not a lot if I'm being completely honest with you but there were a few more transactions that came in above $100,000 but it's still just five so there's not uh tremendous amount of activity and a lot of it is further out in time right so we see these 26 expirations then we see this 25 expirations so a lot of it is generally longer term in uh nature so yeah just not quite as much going going on there which is okay it's still relatively quiet in here so if we take a look at the options let's take a look at the volume today we had 211,000 calls trade against 47,000 puts which this is actually quite a lot and 30 a was super active and we can see the six was also fairly active my expectation here is that we'll continue to see both of these vs rise as they are and I think that we start building out this 133 step sooner rather than later that's my guess so if we take a look at the open interest 576,000 calls against 288,000 puts uh General call skew in here not super heavy but it's still there which is good to see and we can see though that a lot of these calls are actually further out in time which is generally anomalous so the 17 Jan 25s that's where a lot of the the largest positions are which again previously we would' see much more of that in the near-term expiration the 30 hugs have 110 against 29k on the put side so strong call skue here but we'll take a look at how many of those are out of the money I would imagine the majority and the 13-step expiration is still real quiet 25k calls against 10,000 puts so we'll see if we start getting that build out in the earnings expiration cycle it's not quite there yet but it's getting there now the last thing I want to talk about with respect to GameStop is as is I look through the order flow here I see a really healthy mix across expirations which again this is not so much the case that I've typically seen in the product I generally see this specific ticker look like the majority of volume tends to be centralized in the front expirations and we can still see some elements of that right like all these 30 augs it's still happening to a degree but I am seeing way more other expirations pop up on this list doesn't really mean a whole lot it just means that we're not hyper concentrated in the front exploration like we have been previously and I draw your attention to it simply because it is an observation that I have there's not a lot to take away from it as of now it's something that we track the changes that's how a lot of this stuff works there's not always a takeaway directly from um the individual observation but the trend of an observation so that's just something generally new to add into the mix all right gang that wraps me up for today as always let me know if there's anything you want me to take a look at be an outlier and I'll see you guys on the live session tomorrow catch you guys later