What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

Published: Sep 09, 2024 Duration: 00:02:49 Category: News & Politics

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we have seen a trend in the cycle I mean it was more exacerbated under Biden but I think we're still seeing it with Harris is that there's softness amongst young voters and Democrats seem to be holding up decently well with older voters and you know if we're thinking about oh what do people remember about the two parties well a huge event was Co during which the two parties made very different arguments about what we should do and the arguments that Republicans made uh perhaps increased the risks for older Americans but definitely provided more value for younger Americans and the reverse for Democrats they were pitching a regime that would reduce risk for older Americans but the costs were largely on younger Americans and so maybe that's not at the top of mind today but it was a really big event that perhaps started to Jumble some voters perceptions of the two parties and then perhaps they've found other openings to continue to feel that way or whatnot but uh that's that's an area where I think policy made a really big impact on people's lives and the differentiation between the two parties was really clear so when people ask oh this is weird or why is this happening why are older voters sticking with Democrats while younger voters are a bit softer I mean that's one potential answer um that it was a pretty big lifechange changing event yeah and I think you know to that point we've seen in polling uh even when it was Trump Biden that that a lot of Voters who didn't vote in 2020 uh which is going to include obviously a lot of young people who are just have come of age to be able to vote and some you know less uh some some some people who don't regularly show up but do plan to vote this time that Trump tends to do better with them or at least uh relative to to his his overall standing or among people who voted in 2020 he tends to do better among those who didn't vote in 2020 which of course runs counter to sort of we've talked about this on previous podcast but sort of our understanding of of how turnout could affect things and and and who sort of the nature of the non- voter or less likely voter Universe I think historically has been viewed as favorable to Democrats but maybe is not as much as it used to be or is even potentially favorable to Trump and so just sort of getting I just think that's worth noting is that we saw that we've seen that in the numbers uh in a way that may may be surprising to some people scan this QR code to go to the apple and Spotify podcast apps to download the full 538 politics podcast

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