Presidential Debates Do Matter | 538 Politics Podcast

we got a podcast full of singers yeah what part do you sing I'm a first tener usually first Alto okay well we can create our own AC capella group right here on the 538 podcast we should come up with a song to do 525,600 voters okay we're not talking about love we're talking about data seasons of data nice uh we can keep thinking we don't have to there doesn't have to be that but that's a we don't have to make a commitment today it's a good starting point [Music] though hello and welcome to the 538 politics podcast I'm gayen Dro and it is debate week welcome to one of the most consequential weeks remaining on the election clock former president Trump and vice president Harris will face off in their only scheduled debate on Tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC after a supercharged end of the summer for Democrats there's some indication that Harris's support has softened since the convention and a relatively large group of Voters still say they want to know more about Harris 28% of likely voters according to a recent New York Times Sienna College poll only 9% of Voters said the same about Trump the debate is at the moment the only opportunity of the cycle for voters to compare the two side by side So today we're going to talk about what the candidates strengths and weaknesses are heading into the debate and what they might be trying to accomplish we're also going to take a look back at historical debates to give some indication of how much these kinds of events can change the dynamic of a race at least in the short term and we're going to do that with a game of trivia and we'll also check in briefly on the latest jobs report if it is the economy stupid what does the data show in this final stretch here's me to discuss it all is senior elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly welcome to the podcast Jeffrey good morning gayen and also here with us is senior researcher Mary Radcliff welcome Mary hey gayen we're gonna get to the debate let's talk about the jobs report for a minute first so last Friday we got the August jobs report the economy added 142,000 jobs and unemployment ticked down to 4.2% the financial times called the report quote weaker than forecast the report adds even greater Intrigue to the can't miss event of the financial season which is the Federal Reserve September meeting and I know we're all going to be calling in sick for that the FED is expected to cut interest rates at the meeting but by how much is unclear basically a quarter point or a half a point is the big question what's also unclear is whether any of this will matter in November's election there was a time folks I'm talking about back in 2012 when the fall jobs reports were a marquee part of the election the media treated them as if they were as important as the polls or maybe even more important so starting off Jeffrey do you think that this jobs report or any other economic data that is going to come out between now and election day is going to matter to who ends up winning in November I think it could matter very narrowly at the margins the whole idea of like the jobs report being like an event was was silly the way voters take in economic information and the way they feel about the economy is not like a rapid process unless you have some sort of huge event in the economy like I don't know Layman Brothers collapsing and like the economy falling apart in 2008 for example but it has to be something pretty drastic for that to matter and at that point you've already got a lot more going on there that's going to be problematic for the party that's in power and a otherwise not crazed economic environment if you will voters they have sentiments about how things are going they tend to care more about the national picture than their own personal financial not to say that their personal doesn't matter at all but they tend to think more about the national picture uh when it comes to their voting uh it's called sociotropic voting the issue for Harris and maybe the good news for Trump is that I think at this point it's September the elections in less than two months economic views are pretty baked in so it would take something pretty drastic I think for for there to be a dramatic shift and I think the hope for Harris is that things just kind of marginally get better they've ticked up a bit over the last couple years like economic sentiment but not drastically and still well below where it was pre-co of course it it's really kind of a it I mean like a football analogy here it's like three yards in the cloud of dust kind of uh but which direction and I think for the Harris campaign their best hope is that it's in their Direction slightly while the Trump campaign is is probably going to have this as an advantage going into the election regardless at this point to that end Mary you worked on a piece earlier this year that suggested that the normal indicators of how people are feeling about the economy have been turned upside down since Co you know for example in the past increased car buying meant that sentiment was usually on the rise and that just wasn't the case postco people were maybe buying cars but they were mad about it mad about the interest rates that they were paying in order to get those loans I think the expectation here now is that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates and the debate is maybe over by a quarter point by a half point a worse jobs report would have suggested that it's more like half a point a better jobs report maybe closer to a quarter Jeffrey suggesting that marginal changes between now and election day probably aren't going to impact sentiment all that much but if voters are pretty mad about the expensive costs of borrowing and say we do get a half a point interest rate reduction is that the kind of thing that can change voter sentiment in say like a month and a half I don't think so to get a sense of what a 25 basis point cut versus a 50 basis point cut looks like I went and looked up the mortgage rates as they are now and just did crunch some numbers so the median home price is about $412,000 if you financed a home $400,000 loan you know fixed rate 30-year standard thing the current average uh rate you would pay is 6.53% if you cut uh quarter point off of that your monthly payment goes down by $65 from $ 2536 to $2,471 so we're talking about a $65 difference in the in a typical mortgage I don't think that's the kind of thing that voters are going to be like it's solved I've saved 70 bucks I just don't think that matters and so you know every quarter point you drop the rate you're going to save another 65 bucks on your mortgage payment but I mean I don't think we're talking about some Earth shattering difference here the other thing that that I think is worth considering is what factors voters say are important in the economy so if you look at um Economist ugv they have this really fascinating poll they ask periodically about what is the best measure of how the national economy is doing they offer respondents four options which is the price of goods and services the UN employment rate and jobs reports just like we're talking about personal finances and the stock market index if you look preco it's pretty well tied between the price of goods and services and the unemployment rate as the most important factor during the shutdowns the unemployment rate as the most important factor sort of shut up because people didn't have jobs the economy was shut down but since around April or so of 2021 the price of goods and services has been the thing people say is the best measure of how the national economy is doing and that hasn't changed at all even as inflation has come down the last time they asked this question was in early August and we had 55% of respondents said the price of goods and services was the best measure of how the national economy is doing compared to 16% who said it was unemployment and jobs so like I'm frankly a lot more interested in the CPI numbers that the FED will be releasing later this month than I am in the jobs report the jobs report while it may make the difference between a 25 and 50 basis point cut for the FED I don't think that's going to impact voters what voters are feeling is inflation well and even so it sounds like you know even if inflation remains sub 3% annually that voters are reacting to the fact that prices have increased 20% or at this point slightly more since 2019 and it kind of doesn't matter because they don't restart their brain at the end of every year and say now let's just focus on how much prices increase in the next 12 months as much as that's how economists focus on the data what you feel can be slightly different so is there anything really that could happen between now and election day other than you know as Jeffrey suggested a crash that could really shake up how people are feeling I mean with respect to the economy I think jeffre is right like short of an exogenous shock I don't see anything really changing voters opinions on the economy significantly uh and I mean if we did have an exogenous shock it's most likely to be something pretty devastating so I I am not hoping for that yes as Americans I think we can all agree uh that we don't want that but it sounds like the economy as far as the election is concerned the cake is pretty much baked yeah and I think Mary you know Mary was getting at something there too which is obviously people have been very worried about inflation that gets it something which is another potential positive for the Trump campaign and obviously potential detriment for the Harris campaign which is that voters when they think about the economy and they think about like when this comes into play as a factor in people's voting behavior you're thinking about somewhat about what things will look like going forward and so maybe they have a positive association with Trump because the economy was in in in pretty decent shape when he was president and they may have a more negative uh association with Harris because she's part of the Biden Administration and if you're thinking retrospectively this idea called retrospective voting when it comes to the economy you're thinking about how's how has the economy been over the last year or so two years and if you're thinking about where prices are uh you're probably not terribly pleased um and so I I think that's another problem here for the Harris campaign is that there's just not a ton of positive association with the economy she's pulling better than Biden did uh in terms of head-to-head with Trump on who would handle it better uh but generally Trump is usually ahead still on that question and and again I think that's just sort of baked in at this point and then if if Harris is going to win it's not going to be on the economy necessarily maybe it's on the economy not being terrible while other issues are potentially a better Advantage for her like abortion of course yeah and the one silver lining I think in the jobs report with respect to inflation is that um wage gains have continued to outpace inflation they have for like about a year or so so that's good I mean that maybe helps a little bit with voters but the problem with that is that it takes a lot of time for voters to just get past the sticker shock so even though they have more buying power you know we've seen those increases in wages outpacing inflation it doesn't feel good to know things are expensive even though you can afford more that is a silver lining maybe that will help ease some of this pain in terms of the inflation that wages are rising faster than inflation now but I I think it probably is going to be a longer time Horizon than two months all right we've already started to lay out here some of the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates so let's talk more about that as pertains to the debate but first a break at the time of this recording Harris and Trump are separated by about half a percentage point in the likeliest Tipping Point State which is is Pennsylvania in other words this is an extremely close race in a recent ugv poll 70% of registered voters said they plan to watch the debate we'll see if that actually materializes if history is any indication it won't but nonetheless this is likely the most eyeballs these candidates will get between now and election day we were just discussing some of the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates in the polls on the issues for example Trump leads on the economy immigration Harris leads on health care and abortion when it comes to perceptions of the candidates qualities more Americans say Harris understands the problems of people like them and has the mental sharpness to be president while more Americans say Trump is a strong leader we're going to record a reaction podcast on Tuesday night so we won't go too far down the speculation rabbit hole but I do want to ask about what the candidates are trying to accomplish on Tuesday night so Mary what are the goals of these two candidates maybe understanding some of their strengths and weaknesses and that this is going to be a very visible event I mean I think the goals for Harris are pretty clear here this is perhaps her only opportunity to present herself to a bipartisan audience of Americans we know conventions are mostly watched bip partisans so the DNC wasn't really that this is her opportunity to put herself out there have a chance to Define herself and her policies and her vision for America you know you mentioned that that New York Times poll I have the registered voter numbers in front of me 31% of registered voters said they wanted to learn more about Harris and it was similar 28% of likely voters yeah okay perfect they asked them a follow-up question right so of those people who said they wanted to learn more they said what do you want to learn um and 63% volunteered that they wanted to learn more about Harris's policies and plans I think they may be lying a little bit I think you're using the voters of lying I think specific policies and plans are probably less impactful than understanding that this is a person with a vision and that there are plans or that they're not radical right the perception of Harris in that poll was also that more Americans view her is too far to the left then view Trump as too far to the right and so perhaps a question that those respondents have is more like is this a mainstream candidate or is this the boogie woman that Republic an have made her out to be as a San Francisco liberal who said all of the things she said back in 2019 when she was running for president yeah yeah exactly so what what people really mean I think in my opinion what people mean when they say they want to learn more about her policies and plans is that they want to see that she has a plan it's not crazy and that she has a vision for moving forward for this country because I think those are the pieces you really need not necessarily like the nitty-gritty of what exactly is your housing policy or whatever with respect to Trump I think he needs to continue to project the strength one of the things about him that appeals to a lot of Voters is this idea of like a very strong leader he has a tendency to like ramble word salad he needs to avoid some of that although it's not really clear to me how much voters actually care about his word salad rambl all right Jee what are your thoughts in terms of the candidates goals for the evening I think for Harris it's interesting this this campaign to me is going to come down obviously to like turning out your base but your base is probably going to turn out pretty well at the end of the day and so I think back to sort of the 2022 midterms when the Difference Maker in a lot of important sort of Senate races and Governor's races were some actual Independence trying to convince voters that she is a mainstream choice that she is offering competence and less Dr drama than Trump who of course people view as a combustible figure um either they view him positively for that quality or very negatively for that quality and I think for Harris it's a contrast of showing competence and uh an indication of her sort of ability to do the job uh in a way that is going to move the country forward and appeal to some of the voters who were probably like H you know things were better during the with the economy during Trump's presidency but it was also just a mess and you know I'm worried about abortion because this issue keeps coming up and and like it affected my vote in the midterms that kind of thing and of course the electorate will be different in a presidential election much higher turnout overall than a midterm uh but I do I do think that that factor in 2022 was telling in a lot of races and I think it could be something that comes into play here and so conversely for Trump yeah I think avoiding too many crazy sound bites if he actually has a debate somewhat similar to the one he had with Biden now obviously everybody was very focused on Biden during that debate right uh but I think if he has a debate somewhat similar to that you know people will sort of say he met expectations it'll be it will it will be sort of an uneventful thing for him uh whereas you know if he has maybe a moment where he gets too personal and attacks Harris in some way that could become a leading story in a way that is negative for him and so that's sort of to me what sticks out as important you know you just made me think of something uh Jeffree so I was looking at the croses of that New York Times Sienna poll and also some other polling related to how voters view the two candidates and some of the softness in Harris's numbers is coming from the youngest voters including in that New York Times poll you know looking at need to learn more about Harris 52% of 18 to 29 year olds said they wanted to learn more about Harris some of those people may not actually remember the Dr from the Trump years right like I mean if you're 18 years old you were 14 when Trump left office you're like a freshman in high school you don't know about all of this drama yeah Mary to that point exactly we have seen a trend in the cycle I mean it was more exacerbated under Biden but I think we're still seeing it with Harris is that there's softness amongst young voters and Democrats seem to be holding up decently well with older voters and you know if we're thinking about oh what do people remember about the two parties well a huge event was Co during which the two parties made very different arguments about what we should do and the arguments that Republicans made perhaps increased the risks for older Americans but definitely provided more value for younger Americans and the reverse for Democrats they were pitching a regime that would reduce risk for older Americans but the costs were Lar largely on younger Americans and so maybe that's not at the top of mind today but it was a really big event that perhaps started to Jumble some voters perceptions of the two parties and then perhaps they found other openings to continue to feel that way or whatnot that's an area where I think policy made a really big impact on people's lives and the differentiation between the two parties was really clear so when people ask oh this is weird or why is this happening why are older voters sticking with Democrats while younger voters are a bit softer I mean that's one potential answer that was a pretty big life-changing event you know to that point we've seen in polling even when it was Trump Biden that a lot of Voters who didn't vote in 2020 U which is going to include obviously a lot of young people who are just have come of age to be able to vote and some you know some people who don't regularly show up but do plan to vote this time that Trump tends to do better with them or at least uh relative to his his overall standing or among people who voted in 2020 he tends to do better among those who didn't vote in 2020 the non-voter or less likely voter Universe historically has been viewed as favorable to Democrats but maybe is not as much as it used to be or is even potentially favorable to Trump and so just sort of getting I just think that's worth noting is that we saw that we've seen that in the numbers uh in a way that may maybe be surprising to some people all right well we will be back with you soon enough talking about that debate let's move on to the trivia portion of today's podcast but first a break as we talked about last week on the podcast debates can have an impact on horse race poing at least in the short term in fact two and a half percentage points on average it's unclear whether those changes are durable but nonetheless we are about to see a debate in what is by all accounts a very close race and a shift of a couple points could change who's leading so we're going to play a game we're going to test your knowledge of notable moments in presidential debate history specifically how much the polls changed following a high-profile debate moment so grab your pen and paper and get ready because we are going to begin in 1984 oh goodness somehow I knew that that year was going to come up I am very confident that Jeffree is going to beat me in whatever game this is we'll see don't be tooo confident don't be too confident we'll see Reagan is running for re-election and he holds a commanding polling lead over Democratic Challenger Walter Mondale in fact an 18-point lead before the first debate but Reagan stumbles during the first debate performance often rambling and losing his place post- debate polls showed mandale as the clear winner and many in the Press started raising concerns about Reagan's Fitness for office so here's the question by how many points had Reagan's polling lead slipped before the second debate two weeks later oh it's 1984 there's only like three posters act four baby serious National pollers all right three two one reveal I have eight% 11 we got 11 from Jeffrey Mary wins it it is his lead declined by seven percentage points to an 11 point lead and some more context here Reagan of course recovered in that second debate delivering one of his most famous debate lines of all time I will not make age an issue in this campaign I will not exploit for political purposes my opponent's Youth and inexperience he went on to a commanding Victory with 49 states and nearly 60% of the popular vote all right so that's one point for Mary we're going to fast forward quite a few decades to 2012 it is October heading into the first presidential debate in 2012 in Denver Obama was leading Romney in an average of national polls by 3 percentage points but the consensus was that Obama lost the first debate many criticized his performance for being too subdued and not matching Romney's aggression Politico wrote quote President Obama looked like somebody had slipped him an ambient rough a week after their debate performance on October 10th by how many percentage points had the national polls swung towards Romney all right 3 2 1 reveal I wrote 5% I said four wow and Jeffrey said four percentage points I mean on really really a technicality Mary wins it was a total swing of 4.6 percentage points so Mary you got that by a tenth of a percentage point I think Jeffrey and I should share that one can we each have a half a point you each get half a point yeah I think that's only fair only fair thank you Mary that's that's very generous of you Jeffrey got the first number right which is four we were both right in spirit yeah yeah I mean you know that's very much in the modern political era and we saw basically a fivepoint shift after that debate so you know polls can move and it wasn't even as if in that debate something crazy dramatic happened it just didn't seem like uh Obama had his fast yeah what's interesting there is that actually there's a lot of academic debate over whether those poll movements were act were real or not or if they were just uh an indication of of essentially more Republicans respon like response rates response rates yeah so essentially more Republicans responding and Democrats feeling down about the debate and not uh responding as much there's like a famous paper about that involved it involved using Xbox user data which was really interesting but essentially found with a bunch of controls that there made not have actually been any movement at all among voters sentiment but that the polls did move uh the polling averages did move and I think pollsters are a little bit more sensitive to differential non-response than they were in 2012 now to be clear yes they're definitely I think more sensitive to it anyway the 2012 race is very interesting for the debate over that if anyone ever wants to go down a a Google Scholar Rabbit Hole uh it's interesting all right we'll save that for another day maybe I'm alone on that front but uh I think it was interesting speak speaking of being nerdy Mary you have one and a half points and Jeff you have half a point uh we're going to motor right along to 2016 Clinton's Sixpoint polling lead that had held through most of August of 2016 was shrinking in September down to 2.3 percentage points on the day of the first presidential debate in September of 2016 Clinton was generally perceived to have won that debate with one Gallop post debate poll finding 61% of respondents favoring Clinton's performance a week later on October 3rd how much had Clinton's polling lead increased by three two one reveal I have 2.5% oh we're getting specific I did three okay all right wait you both are giving extremely close responses neither of you are that that close but Mary gets it again it was9 percentage point so one percentage Point shift towards Clinton a week after the debate so Mary I was thinking it swung a little bit more than that It ultimately Did It ultimately swung quite a bit by the conclusion of the third debate ah maybe that's what I was remembering by the conclusion of the third debate Clinton had a healthy lead and a lead that probably would have won her that election had the ensuing leaks and Comey stuff not uh I mean who knows it was so close who knows uh she might have lost anyway we won't but there was definitely movement on those in those final days okay so two and a half points to half a point we're going to keep motoring right along we're now in 2019 it's the second night of the first Democratic primary debate in 2019 if you remember those debates were split up over two nights randomly during that debate Harris and Biden had a heated exchange over 's opposition to federally mandated busing in the 1970s with Harris saying there was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools and she was bust to school every day and that little girl was me Harris was widely viewed as the winner of this debate the gap between Biden and Harris the day of the debate was 25 percentage points Biden leading of course there are other candidates in this race but that was the gap between Biden and Harris how much did that Gap shift towards Harris a week after the debate I literally wrote a piece about Harris's pole movement and that was how many years yeah five years ago now like geez all right three two one reveal I have nine I went 14 whoa Jeffrey it is exactly 14 percentage points I wrote nine and as soon as I wrote it I went oh it's not enough primaries are more volatile than this primaries are very volatile folks so it went from Biden leading Harris by 25 percentage points to Leading Harris by only 11 percentage points and that was basically her Peak that was definitely her Peak and by the time of the second debate I remember talking about this I remember being on ABC saying yeah you know actually for as much as we made of the aftermath of the first debate the polls had reverted almost to where they had been before by the time of that second debate all right so it is two and a half points to one and a half points this is our final question although if it ends up as a tie I'll come up with some kind of bonus question or everyone can win so here we go and this is a little more complicated I want you to order these first presidential debates by viewership numbers from most to least they are Carter versus Reagan in 1980 are we doing raw viewership or raw viewership a percent but I love the nerdiness in that question Carter versus Reagan in 1980 Clinton versus Dole in 1996 Obama versus Romney in 2012 Clinton versus Trump in 2016 and Biden versus Trump in 2024 so this is worth quite a few points you got a point for every correctly placed debate if you're thinking well the population has only grown since 1980 and we're going to do it based on that you would get this very wrong if anybody gets this fully right you get like an extra prize of just being Quant of the year it's like winning the nerd Olympics exactly exactly we're gonna start a 538 decathlon but it's just this but it's just this it's just election data and we're going to bring it to high schools around the country so get ready folks and with that I'm going to ask you to reveal three two one go Mary you read it first uh I have 1980 1996 2012 2024 and 2016 okay you got the placement of 2012 and 2024 correct so that is two points for Mary Jeff read yours I went 1980 first is the most then 2016 then 1996 then 2012 then 2024 okay I'm sorry Jeffrey none of those are correct here is the actual answer the most watched of those debates was Clinton versus Trump in 2016 Dam really 84 million views I was thinking Reagan Carter might have beat it out in close second in close second was Carter versus Reagan in 1980 with 81 million views which Jeffrey and I both had first yes yes exactly yeah because we were thinking about it but I knew 2016 was watched I just didn't think it beat that one though that was the only debate between Carter and Reagan in 1980 the only one third is Obama versus Romney in 2012 with 67 million viewers fourth is Biden versus Trump in 2024 earlier this year year with 51 million viewers finally Clinton versus Dole in 1996 with 36 million viewers you know that's where I was thinking about the TV ratings as just like who would actually be watching TV because I knew 1996 famously I mean was like the joke was like it was the Seinfeld election like what is this even about it had much lower turnout uh in 1996 than in 1992 and yeah it was just just not an election where people were particularly glued in um so I'm not really that shocked that it was last I should have trusted my instincts on that and put it last yeah and and thinking about it now I mean the earlier you go in time the I would expect although you said gayen there's not really a correlation here I would expect higher viewership simply because of like limited options on television but by 1996 we got c yeah I mean if you maybe looked at a data set of all presidential debates in time you might see some sort of clear Trend but for these debates specifically well it was a mix of notable debates and so not a clear trend line but Mary ultimately you have 5.5 points Jeffrey you have 2.5 points I don't have any prizes to mail you but I hope you feel happy about your win Mary and Jeffrey there's always next time cuz we're bringing we're bringing election nerd DEA on to a high school near you we will see you on the other side of this presidential debate thank you Mary and Jeff thanks gayen thank you gayen my name is gayen Duo our producers are Shane mcken and Cameron chavan and our intern is Jayla a you can get in touch by emailing us at podcast 538.com you can also of course tweet at us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show you can leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and we will see you soon he [Music]