How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast

Published: Sep 04, 2024 Duration: 00:03:38 Category: News & Politics

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well yeah it's also interesting because while she is improving notably with these groups she's in many cases still shy of where Biden was in 2020 with these groups whether it's young voters or Latino voters and also when you look at some of the states where she's turned around Democrats lot like it looked like the Sun Belt Was Out Of Reach for Biden by the time he dropped out of the race it looks like the Sun Belt is back in play for Democrats but four years ago Biden had a four-point lead in Arizona he had a six-point lead in Nevada and so I think sort of in the polls in the polls in the polls yes important caveat there so the polls end given that we know given that we know that the polls now were off um by about five percentage points nationally in the 2020 election should we say ah it really just looks like she's getting back to where Biden was in 2020 or should we say that no she's still falling actually short of where Biden was in 2020 I would say she's still falling short of where Biden was in 2020 just looking at swing States and looking at some of these demographic groups like I think we all talked a lot about slippage for Biden with latino voters um and on the one hand you can look at the numbers that we've seen for Harris with latino voters and think that's a lot better on the other hand it's actually not that different than when we started that conversation ation with Biden and he was starting to slip with latino voters that was in you know the winter of last year and her numbers are fairly similar to where it was when we started that conversation and say wow Biden might be slipping with latino voters so she's she stopped the bleeding but I think she still has a lot of room to climb to really be able to be successful and is that difference in part because there are still more undecided voters out there and they just have to make up their minds or is it because Trump is genuinely more popular today than he was in the past so I think it is because Trump has improved a bit um the analysis that we did that Mary Radcliffe did for us looking at the kind of Biden coalitions and the Harris Coalition side by side did normalize the Biden results for like a two-way race so basically to make sure we weren't comparing polls from 2024 with that still had undecided voters to results from 2020 which obviously didn't have undecided voters so even by that standards Harris is still a little bit sh of where Biden was in most cases um but what's interesting I think that maybe is like a little bit of a silver lining for her is that I think she is weaker in kind of strategic ways right so like if you look at the national polling average so Biden won in 2020 the national popular vote by I believe four and a half points and Harris is at about three points right so that shows that she is doing a little bit worse than Biden was doing or the bid did in 2020 but in a lot of those State polls those polling averages she's actually doing about like the if if the polling averages right now translated exactly to the results she would actually basically be right at what Biden did in most of these states I think Nevada being a key exception I think Biden won Nevada by like three points in in 2020 but obviously that is just one state and it's relatively small um but I think a lot of the losses that Harris is still experiencing are maybe in States like California or New York where she can afford to lose some of that support a little bit more scan this QR code to go to the apple and Spotify podcast apps to download the full 538 politics podcast

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